Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.2 #251
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 #279
Pace 68.9 #187
Improvement +1.8 #92

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #315 D+ D+ F C D-
Defense #155 C C C C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #328 1.25 #91 -2.3 #264
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #59 0.73 #209 +2.1 #76
Three Pointers 41% #186 0.90 #309 -2.5 #270
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #247 -2.7 #247
Freethrows 17.0 #211 73% #174 12.4 #198
Second Chance 23.8% #339 1.18 #36 0.28 #260
Turnovers 19.4% #329
Total Offense -5.6 #315

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #239 1.11 #115 +2.2 #105
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #88 0.87 #323 -2.5 #338
Three Pointers 40% #214 1.07 #259 -0.6 #206
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #208 -0.9 #209
Freethrows 16.4 #129 74% #234 12.0 #211
Second Chance 30.9% #186 1.02 #153 0.32 #170
Turnovers 17.2% #136
Total Defense +0.3 #155

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.6% #324 -1.0% #90
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.7% #214 2.9% #238
Possession Length 17.8 #222 15.4 #6
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #292 0.20 #281
Improvement -1.2 #254 +2.9 #39

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 69.4% 51.5% 74.6%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Away) - 22.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 70 - 10
Quad 33 - 123 - 21
Quad 43 - 36 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 3 @Purdue L 51 - 82 1% -18  0 - 1 -6 -6 F A+ C -4 C- A D+
 Wed, Nov 12 120 Middle Tennessee L 72 - 77 32% -8  0 - 2 -5 -1 B+ F C- -4 D A C
 Tue, Nov 18 154 Texas Arlington L 76 - 84 40% -3  0 - 3 -11 +6 C- A+ C -17 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 189 Oregon St. W 73 - 69 37% +4  1 - 3 +2 +1 D+ B- F +1 A+ F B-
 Sun, Nov 23 67 Akron L 59 - 97 11% -13  1 - 4 -30 -14 F B F -16 D- F B
 Mon, Nov 24 155 College of Charleston L 59 - 78 30% -12  1 - 5 -19 -14 F F D+ -4 F C B-
 Wed, Dec 3 303 Ball St. W 64 - 52 72% +1  2 - 5 +1 -11 F F F +13 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 150 @Western Kentucky L 79 - 80 21% -3  2 - 6 +2 +5 B B+ F -3 F A- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 71 @Notre Dame L 58 - 82 7% -11  2 - 7 -13 -5 B D+ F -9 F A- B-
 Tue, Dec 16 79 Belmont L 78 - 83 18% -7  2 - 8 0 - 1 -1 -1 C F B- +0 A- A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 165 Drake L 65 - 66 44% -2  2 - 9 0 - 2 -5 -5 F A- F +1 C C A
 Mon, Dec 29 114 @Bradley L 68 - 76 13% +2  2 - 10 0 - 3 -1 -1 D- C+ A+ -1 B- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 91 @Illinois St. L 47 - 73 10% -14  2 - 11 0 - 4 -17 -21 F F F +5 C+ A+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 107 Northern Iowa L 48 - 62 27% -12  2 - 12 0 - 5 -13 -15 D+ F F +1 F B- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 89 Murray St. L 69 - 79 20% -4  2 - 13 0 - 6 -6 -6 B+ F F -0 A- C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 207 @Indiana St. W 72 - 69 30% +0  3 - 13 1 - 6 +3 -1 A F F +5 A+ F D-
 Tue, Jan 13 114 Bradley L 90 - 94 OT 28% +3  3 - 14 1 - 7 -3 +10 A+ C C+ -13 D- B F
 Tue, Jan 20 160 @Illinois-Chicago L 65 - 73 22%
 Sun, Jan 25 126 Southern Illinois L 69 - 73 35%
 Wed, Jan 28 165 @Drake L 65 - 73 24%
 Sat, Jan 31 107 @Northern Iowa L 56 - 68 12%
 Tue, Feb 3 207 Indiana St. W 72 - 71 52%
 Fri, Feb 6 184 @Valparaiso L 65 - 72 27%
 Mon, Feb 9 91 Illinois St. L 65 - 73 22%
 Thu, Feb 12 126 @Southern Illinois L 66 - 76 18%
 Wed, Feb 18 160 Illinois-Chicago L 68 - 70 42%
 Sat, Feb 21 89 @Murray St. L 70 - 85 9%
 Wed, Feb 25 79 @Belmont L 67 - 83 7%
 Sat, Feb 28 184 Valparaiso L 68 - 69 48%
Totals 6 - 23 4 - 16 -5 -6 D+ D+ F +0 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 2.5 0.9 0.1 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 11.2 9th
10th 0.5 3.0 8.5 10.6 4.5 0.5 0.0 27.6 10th
11th 3.5 11.6 18.4 14.5 5.2 0.7 0.0 53.7 11th
Total 3.5 12.0 21.4 23.5 18.8 11.9 5.8 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 0.0
10-10 0.2% 0.2
9-11 0.7% 0.7
8-12 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
7-13 5.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.8
6-14 11.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.8
5-15 18.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.7
4-16 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 23.5
3-17 21.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.3
2-18 12.0% 12.0
1-19 3.5% 3.5
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.9%