Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#291
Expected Predictive Rating-8.3#290
Pace66.9#262
Improvement-1.7#309

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#305
First Shot-5.5#330
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#136
Layup/Dunks-1.9#246
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#351
Freethrows+1.2#114
Improvement-1.0#276

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#248
First Shot-1.4#222
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#262
Layups/Dunks+5.0#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#352
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#258
Freethrows-0.9#241
Improvement-0.7#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 16.0
.500 or above 0.7% 1.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 3.8% 4.8% 2.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 52.0% 48.3% 57.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Home) - 58.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 60 - 9
Quad 33 - 113 - 19
Quad 43 - 47 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 3 @Purdue L 51-82 1%     0 - 1 -5.8 -6.0 -3.9
  Wed, Nov 12 149 Middle Tennessee L 72-77 34%     0 - 2 -8.0 -4.3 -3.6
  Tue, Nov 18 184 Texas Arlington L 76-84 40%     0 - 3 -12.7 +4.2 -17.0
  Fri, Nov 21 169 Oregon St. W 73-69 28%     1 - 3 +2.8 +1.5 +1.5
  Sun, Nov 23 58 Akron L 59-97 7%     1 - 4 -28.6 -12.7 -16.0
  Mon, Nov 24 151 College of Charleston L 59-78 25%     1 - 5 -19.1 -14.5 -4.5
  Wed, Dec 3 277 Ball St. W 69-67 58%    
  Sat, Dec 6 132 @Western Kentucky L 68-80 13%    
  Sat, Dec 13 66 @Notre Dame L 58-77 4%    
  Tue, Dec 16 94 Belmont L 67-77 19%    
  Sun, Dec 21 143 Drake L 63-68 33%    
  Mon, Dec 29 112 @Bradley L 63-77 11%    
  Thu, Jan 1 102 @Illinois St. L 62-77 9%    
  Sun, Jan 4 90 Northern Iowa L 59-69 17%    
  Wed, Jan 7 118 Murray St. L 74-81 25%    
  Sat, Jan 10 166 @Indiana St. L 69-78 20%    
  Tue, Jan 13 112 Bradley L 66-74 25%    
  Tue, Jan 20 174 @Illinois-Chicago L 68-77 21%    
  Sun, Jan 25 142 Southern Illinois L 68-73 32%    
  Wed, Jan 28 143 @Drake L 60-71 17%    
  Sat, Jan 31 90 @Northern Iowa L 56-72 7%    
  Tue, Feb 3 166 Indiana St. L 72-75 39%    
  Fri, Feb 6 268 @Valparaiso L 65-70 35%    
  Mon, Feb 9 102 Illinois St. L 65-74 21%    
  Thu, Feb 12 142 @Southern Illinois L 65-76 16%    
  Wed, Feb 18 174 Illinois-Chicago L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 118 @Murray St. L 71-84 12%    
  Wed, Feb 25 94 @Belmont L 64-80 8%    
  Sat, Feb 28 268 Valparaiso W 68-67 55%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.3 1.9 3.1 2.4 0.5 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.6 5.4 3.5 0.8 0.1 14.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 4.5 8.2 7.8 4.0 1.0 0.1 26.8 10th
11th 2.1 6.6 10.8 10.7 6.8 2.6 0.6 0.0 40.3 11th
Total 2.1 6.7 12.0 15.3 16.2 14.3 12.0 8.5 5.5 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 32.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 7.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 1.4% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.1
13-7 0.3% 9.4% 9.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 0.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.5
11-9 0.9% 2.5% 2.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
10-10 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.9
9-11 3.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.5
8-12 5.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.5
7-13 8.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.5
6-14 12.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.0
5-15 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.3
4-16 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.2
3-17 15.3% 15.3
2-18 12.0% 12.0
1-19 6.7% 6.7
0-20 2.1% 2.1
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%