Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.8 #117
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 #180
Pace 79.9 #13
Improvement -6.0 #362

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #96 C A- B+ C- A-
Defense #181 C- C A+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #162 1.20 #125 +0.9 #141
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #346 0.66 #299 -4.4 #353
Three Pointers 51% #20 0.92 #292 +2.7 #94
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #198 -0.8 #198
Freethrows 17.0 #209 69% #282 11.7 #233
Second Chance 33.1% #117 1.27 #11 0.42 #31
Turnovers 14.3% #54
Total Offense +3.3 #96

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #281 1.20 #230 +1.5 #124
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #190 0.81 #268 -0.4 #207
Three Pointers 45% #67 1.05 #239 -3.0 #301
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #245 -1.9 #244
Freethrows 16.6 #149 73% #193 12.1 #206
Second Chance 33.0% #275 0.95 #72 0.31 #168
Turnovers 21.1% #15
Total Defense -0.5 #181

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.7% #29 -0.4% #129
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.2% #235 4.1% #261
Possession Length 13.9 #3 17.6 #240
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #161 0.17 #174
Improvement +0.8 #133 -6.8 #364

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.0 n/a 11.0
.500 or above 1.0% 2.2% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 0.8% 1.8% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 34.9% 21.0% 43.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Home) - 36.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 61 - 14
Quad 22 - 53 - 19
Quad 31 - 24 - 20
Quad 47 - 011 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 347 Alcorn St. W 108 - 76 94% +17  1 - 0 +17 +20 B+ C+ A+ -6 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 306 Alabama St. W 101 - 64 90% +20  2 - 0 +26 +11 D A+ D+ +11 A+ D A+
 Tue, Nov 11 12 @Florida L 76 - 78 4% -1  2 - 1 +21 +5 D+ B- A+ +16 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 225 Tennessee Martin W 87 - 73 81% +19  3 - 1 +8 +6 C+ F A+ +1 F C- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 230 Georgia Southern W 98 - 72 81% +14  4 - 1 +19 +5 C C A+ +11 B+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 293 Cal St. Bakersfield W 89 - 59 89% +13  5 - 1 +19 -0 D B- F +15 A C- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 40 Texas A&M L 59 - 95 17% -22  5 - 2 -23 -12 F C C -8 D+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 2 23 Georgia L 73 - 107 17% -19  5 - 3 -21 -2 C C A+ -15 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 5 Houston L 67 - 82 5% -10  5 - 4 +6 +6 C A+ F -0 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 168 Massachusetts L 95 - 103 64% -5  5 - 5 -9 +9 A- C B -17 F F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 70 @Dayton L 69 - 97 22% -13  5 - 6 -17 -3 D C- D -11 D+ B C
 Fri, Dec 19 365 Mississippi Valley W 96 - 49 99% +32  6 - 6 +20 +8 D- C+ B- +10 A+ B+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 305 Jacksonville W 87 - 63 90% +18  7 - 6 +13 +17 C A+ A -3 C+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 29 @North Carolina L 66 - 79 9% -7  7 - 7 0 - 1 +5 +2 D A+ C+ +3 A+ B- D+
 Sat, Jan 3 7 Duke L 87 - 91 9% -0  7 - 8 0 - 2 +14 +23 A+ A+ B- -9 D C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 24 North Carolina St. L 69 - 113 17% -24  7 - 9 0 - 3 -31 -5 F A+ A+ -22 F F C-
 Tue, Jan 13 61 @Syracuse L 86 - 94 19% -1  7 - 10 0 - 4 +4 +16 A+ A+ C -11 F C- A
 Sat, Jan 17 57 Wake Forest L 82 - 86 37%
 Tue, Jan 20 35 @Miami (FL) L 78 - 92 9%
 Sat, Jan 24 30 @SMU L 79 - 94 8%
 Wed, Jan 28 81 California L 81 - 82 46%
 Sat, Jan 31 77 Stanford L 79 - 81 44%
 Sat, Feb 7 71 @Notre Dame L 72 - 80 22%
 Tue, Feb 10 17 Virginia L 74 - 85 15%
 Sat, Feb 14 64 @Virginia Tech L 77 - 86 20%
 Tue, Feb 17 151 Boston College W 78 - 73 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 33 @Clemson L 69 - 83 9%
 Tue, Feb 24 35 Miami (FL) L 81 - 89 22%
 Sat, Feb 28 111 @Georgia Tech L 81 - 85 35%
 Wed, Mar 4 88 @Pittsburgh L 75 - 82 27%
 Sat, Mar 7 30 SMU L 82 - 91 21%
Totals 11 - 20 4 - 14 +3 +3 C A- B+ +0 C- C A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.3 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 1.8 0.2 3.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 3.5 1.1 0.0 5.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 4.4 3.4 0.3 8.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.5 4.8 6.9 1.3 0.0 13.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.5 5.2 9.9 3.5 0.2 19.3 16th
17th 1.0 6.3 11.1 5.3 0.6 24.3 17th
18th 1.8 6.0 8.1 4.1 0.5 0.0 20.4 18th
Total 1.8 7.0 14.8 21.0 21.1 16.3 10.2 5.1 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.2
9-9 0.6% 0.6
8-10 1.9% 1.9
7-11 5.1% 5.1
6-12 10.2% 10.2
5-13 16.3% 16.3
4-14 21.1% 21.1
3-15 21.0% 21.0
2-16 14.8% 14.8
1-17 7.0% 7.0
0-18 1.8% 1.8
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%