Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#55
Expected Predictive Rating+9.9#64
Pace85.0#4
Improvement-0.6#228

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#88
First Shot+2.5#103
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#112
Layup/Dunks+1.2#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#20
Freethrows-1.6#284
Improvement-1.4#305

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#35
First Shot+3.0#83
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#25
Layups/Dunks+2.9#77
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#145
Freethrows-0.9#244
Improvement+0.7#116
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.3% 2.0% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 4.9% 7.1% 2.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.2% 41.7% 24.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 32.3% 40.8% 23.4%
Average Seed 8.6 8.5 9.0
.500 or above 78.0% 87.1% 68.3%
.500 or above in Conference 51.1% 57.6% 44.1%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.0% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 2.8% 5.0%
First Four6.5% 7.3% 5.7%
First Round29.9% 38.0% 21.2%
Second Round14.8% 19.1% 10.1%
Sweet Sixteen3.8% 5.2% 2.4%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.6% 0.8%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Neutral) - 51.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 9
Quad 25 - 49 - 13
Quad 33 - 111 - 14
Quad 47 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 338 Alcorn St. W 108-76 97%     1 - 0 +18.2 +20.9 -5.2
  Fri, Nov 7 266 Alabama St. W 101-64 95%     2 - 0 +28.4 +12.1 +12.3
  Tue, Nov 11 17 @Florida L 76-78 16%     2 - 1 +18.1 +3.6 +14.8
  Tue, Nov 18 263 Tennessee Martin W 87-73 94%     3 - 1 +5.5 +4.8 -0.3
  Fri, Nov 21 246 Georgia Southern W 98-72 94%     4 - 1 +18.2 +5.7 +8.4
  Tue, Nov 25 271 Cal St. Bakersfield W 89-59 95%     5 - 1 +21.1 +0.3 +16.8
  Fri, Nov 28 60 Texas A&M W 85-84 52%    
  Tue, Dec 2 34 Georgia L 89-90 49%    
  Sat, Dec 6 5 Houston L 67-77 18%    
  Sat, Dec 13 181 Massachusetts W 88-77 85%    
  Tue, Dec 16 78 @Dayton L 76-77 47%    
  Fri, Dec 19 365 Mississippi Valley W 97-62 99.9%   
  Mon, Dec 22 269 Jacksonville W 84-66 95%    
  Tue, Dec 30 26 @North Carolina L 80-87 24%    
  Sat, Jan 3 2 Duke L 75-85 18%    
  Sat, Jan 10 29 North Carolina St. L 87-88 48%    
  Tue, Jan 13 64 @Syracuse L 79-81 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 37 Wake Forest W 82-81 52%    
  Tue, Jan 20 44 @Miami (FL) L 80-85 32%    
  Sat, Jan 24 42 @SMU L 82-87 32%    
  Wed, Jan 28 67 California W 83-79 65%    
  Sat, Jan 31 95 Stanford W 86-79 74%    
  Sat, Feb 7 66 @Notre Dame L 74-76 43%    
  Tue, Feb 10 39 Virginia W 79-78 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 63 @Virginia Tech L 80-82 44%    
  Tue, Feb 17 127 Boston College W 80-69 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 38 @Clemson L 73-78 32%    
  Tue, Feb 24 44 Miami (FL) W 83-82 52%    
  Sat, Feb 28 104 @Georgia Tech W 78-76 58%    
  Wed, Mar 4 99 @Pittsburgh W 77-75 57%    
  Sat, Mar 7 42 SMU W 85-84 52%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.1 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.1 0.7 0.1 5.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 2.8 1.1 0.1 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 3.8 1.5 0.1 6.6 5th
6th 0.4 3.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 4.3 1.0 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.5 4.1 2.8 0.2 7.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.6 4.5 0.8 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.6 2.0 0.1 7.4 10th
11th 0.1 2.7 3.9 0.5 7.3 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 4.6 1.6 0.1 7.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.8 2.9 0.3 6.3 13th
14th 0.1 1.5 3.5 0.9 0.0 6.0 14th
15th 0.1 0.8 2.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 5.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.9 17th
18th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.9 18th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.2 3.9 6.6 9.3 12.0 13.6 13.3 12.4 9.6 6.9 4.7 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 73.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 41.5% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 13.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 6.8% 93.2% 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.5% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 4.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.2% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.3% 99.0% 7.0% 92.0% 6.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9%
13-5 4.7% 96.7% 6.6% 90.1% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.2 96.4%
12-6 6.9% 86.2% 3.9% 82.4% 8.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.0 85.7%
11-7 9.6% 73.9% 0.9% 73.0% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.0 2.2 1.0 0.0 2.5 73.6%
10-8 12.4% 51.2% 0.6% 50.5% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.3 1.9 0.1 6.0 50.9%
9-9 13.3% 26.9% 0.5% 26.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 1.6 0.1 9.7 26.6%
8-10 13.6% 9.1% 0.3% 8.8% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 12.4 8.8%
7-11 12.0% 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.8 1.9%
6-12 9.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.1%
5-13 6.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 0.1%
4-14 3.9% 3.9
3-15 2.2% 2.2
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 33.2% 1.3% 31.9% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.6 5.2 6.1 7.5 5.6 0.3 0.0 66.8 32.3%