Grambling St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.1 #269
Expected Predictive Rating -5.2 #248
Pace 69.1 #185
Improvement -0.9 #240

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #285 C D F A C
Defense #239 D F A D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #105 1.18 #154 +2.0 #109
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #139 0.64 #313 -0.5 #204
Three Pointers 36% #282 1.01 #183 -2.4 #268
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #199 -0.9 #199
Freethrows 21.6 #16 73% #166 15.8 #22
Second Chance 27.8% #259 0.94 #292 0.26 #290
Turnovers 20.4% #352
Total Offense -4.1 #285

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #79 1.26 #298 -4.4 #315
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #295 0.73 #136 +1.6 #72
Three Pointers 41% #190 1.07 #266 -1.2 #234
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #302 -3.9 #300
Freethrows 20.0 #303 76% #315 15.2 #39
Second Chance 35.9% #337 1.11 #271 0.40 #333
Turnovers 20.2% #25
Total Defense -2.0 #239

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #197 1.6% #307
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.7% #201 6.0% #290
Possession Length 17.2 #164 16.8 #111
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #81 0.23 #327
Improvement -0.9 #231 -0.1 #188

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 19.4% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 59.0% 69.1% 43.7%
.500 or above in Conference 75.0% 84.1% 61.1%
Conference Champion 14.7% 20.7% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four10.0% 10.8% 8.8%
First Round11.9% 14.2% 8.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 60.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 415 - 916 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 6 @Iowa St. L 62 - 102 1% -16  0 - 1 -16 -2 C D- D -12 D D- B-
 Sun, Nov 9 275 @Howard W 73 - 70 40% +1  1 - 1 -1 +8 B A+ F -8 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 13 210 Southern Miss W 75 - 70 49% +6  2 - 1 -1 +1 A+ D- F -2 A+ F D
 Tue, Nov 18 222 @San Diego L 68 - 78 29% -7  2 - 2 -10 -8 F D- C- -2 B B+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 157 @California Baptist L 59 - 72 19% -13  2 - 3 -10 -6 C F F -5 F B A+
 Mon, Nov 24 287 @UC Riverside L 74 - 83 43% +1  2 - 4 -13 +0 F C B -14 F F B
 Tue, Dec 2 158 @Tulane L 63 - 65 19% -0  2 - 5 +1 -0 D B+ F +1 A- D- F
 Mon, Dec 8 210 @Southern Miss L 60 - 68 28% +1  2 - 6 -8 -10 D+ F F +2 F C A+
 Thu, Dec 18 289 Norfolk St. W 80 - 68 55% +14  3 - 6 +5 +1 C+ F A+ +3 B D C
 Fri, Dec 19 242 Hampton W 81 - 72 45% +7  4 - 6 +4 +12 B+ A+ F -7 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 23 36 @Ohio St. L 63 - 89 3% -13  4 - 7 -9 -1 D- A- F -10 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 317 Prairie View W 76 - 72 73% +4  5 - 7 1 - 0 -8 -7 C C- F -2 B- F A+
 Mon, Jan 5 334 Texas Southern W 84 - 67 77% +9  6 - 7 2 - 0 +3 +6 A- C+ D- -3 A F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 272 @Bethune-Cookman L 65 - 74 40% -8  6 - 8 2 - 1 -12 -14 D- F F +2 C+ F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 322 @Florida A&M L 84 - 91 52% -3  6 - 9 2 - 2 -14 +6 C B C+ -19 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 263 Southern W 76 - 73 60%
 Sat, Jan 24 365 Mississippi Valley W 80 - 59 97%
 Mon, Jan 26 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 81 - 74 75%
 Sat, Jan 31 333 @Jackson St. W 77 - 75 56%
 Mon, Feb 2 347 @Alcorn St. W 76 - 73 61%
 Sat, Feb 7 306 Alabama St. W 77 - 72 69%
 Mon, Feb 9 300 Alabama A&M W 73 - 68 67%
 Sat, Feb 14 334 @Texas Southern W 74 - 72 57%
 Mon, Feb 16 317 @Prairie View W 77 - 76 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 263 @Southern L 73 - 76 38%
 Thu, Feb 26 272 Bethune-Cookman W 76 - 73 62%
 Thu, Feb 26 322 Florida A&M W 77 - 70 73%
 Tue, Mar 3 300 @Alabama A&M L 70 - 71 46%
 Thu, Mar 5 306 @Alabama St. L 74 - 75 47%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 7 -6 -4 C D F -2 D F A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 5.2 5.4 2.4 0.5 14.7 1st
2nd 0.5 5.8 5.6 1.4 0.1 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.8 7.1 1.7 0.1 12.7 3rd
4th 1.0 7.6 2.6 0.1 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 4.5 5.4 0.4 10.3 5th
6th 1.3 7.2 1.3 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.2 4.3 3.6 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 4.8 0.6 7.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 3.2 1.9 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.1 0.2 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.3 7.5 12.6 16.9 18.7 17.0 12.6 6.9 2.5 0.5 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.5    0.5
14-4 96.4% 2.4    2.0 0.4
13-5 79.1% 5.4    3.1 2.0 0.4 0.0
12-6 41.2% 5.2    1.1 2.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 6.9% 1.2    0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.7% 14.7 6.7 4.9 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.5% 46.2% 46.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 2.5% 37.4% 37.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.6
13-5 6.9% 30.6% 30.6% 15.6 0.0 0.7 1.4 4.8
12-6 12.6% 26.2% 26.2% 15.9 0.0 0.4 2.8 9.3
11-7 17.0% 20.9% 20.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.3 13.5
10-8 18.7% 18.0% 18.0% 16.0 0.1 3.3 15.3
9-9 16.9% 14.5% 14.5% 16.0 0.0 2.4 14.5
8-10 12.6% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.8 11.8
7-11 7.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.4
6-12 3.3% 3.3
5-13 1.3% 1.3
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 15.8 83.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.8 6.1 24.2 54.5 15.2