Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 #203
Expected Predictive Rating -5.0 #246
Pace 63.0 #332
Improvement +3.9 #28

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #225 C- C- C- B- A+
Defense #182 C B- D+ F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #9 1.01 #332 +1.7 #119
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #342 0.60 #341 -4.4 #354
Three Pointers 42% #169 1.06 #126 +1.3 #132
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #211 -1.4 #209
Freethrows 21.8 #13 65% #352 14.1 #91
Second Chance 29.5% #222 1.03 #206 0.30 #216
Turnovers 17.4% #233
Total Offense -1.9 #225

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #190 1.06 #65 +1.9 #111
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #296 0.75 #163 +1.4 #84
Three Pointers 45% #77 1.05 #240 -2.8 #293
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #164 +0.5 #165
Freethrows 20.9 #329 79% #356 16.5 #15
Second Chance 27.9% #86 1.03 #163 0.29 #101
Turnovers 15.5% #249
Total Defense -0.5 #182

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.9% #11 1.0% #256
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.5% #279 -2.1% #145
Possession Length 18.5 #299 17.9 #284
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #288 0.15 #119
Improvement +4.4 #7 -0.5 #218

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.2% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 21.3% 30.9% 12.2%
.500 or above in Conference 55.9% 70.4% 42.1%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.8% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.3% 5.1%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round3.1% 4.1% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Home) - 48.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 86 - 11
Quad 47 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 14 268 Coastal Carolina W 74 - 67 74% +7  1 - 0 -2 +2 D+ A- C+ -4 A+ F D+
 Wed, Nov 19 190 South Alabama L 65 - 71 59% +6  1 - 1 -11 -5 C F D -6 D+ C F
 Mon, Nov 24 133 @Arkansas St. L 63 - 74 25% -7  1 - 2 -7 -11 F D+ F +5 C A+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 148 North Dakota St. L 43 - 56 38% -10  1 - 3 -12 -25 F F F +11 C A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 279 North Alabama L 66 - 73 76% +2  1 - 4 -17 -8 F A C -9 C C- F
 Sat, Dec 13 290 @Georgia St. L 73 - 77 57% -5  1 - 5 -8 +5 F B A+ -14 C- D F
 Wed, Dec 17 253 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 62 72% -5  1 - 6 -11 -14 F F D- +2 B+ D- A+
 Sat, Dec 20 119 @East Tennessee St. W 81 - 75 22% +1  2 - 6 +12 +22 A+ B C+ -9 F B+ C+
 Mon, Dec 29 150 Western Kentucky W 78 - 67 51% +12  3 - 6 1 - 0 +8 +6 A+ F F +3 A B+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 271 @Delaware W 67 - 64 54% +4  4 - 6 2 - 0 -0 +5 C- B- F -5 D A+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 95 @Liberty L 69 - 78 15% -4  4 - 7 2 - 1 -0 +6 D B A -7 A D- D
 Wed, Jan 7 172 Florida International W 71 - 64 56% +1  5 - 7 3 - 1 +3 +1 A+ C+ F +2 C+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 159 @Kennesaw St. L 82 - 88 30% -5  5 - 8 3 - 2 -3 +8 A+ C- C- -11 C- F F
 Wed, Jan 14 141 Sam Houston St. L 73 - 74 49%
 Sat, Jan 17 234 Louisiana Tech W 65 - 60 67%
 Sat, Jan 24 120 Middle Tennessee L 66 - 68 42%
 Wed, Jan 28 172 @Florida International L 72 - 76 34%
 Sat, Jan 31 192 @Missouri St. L 64 - 68 38%
 Thu, Feb 5 150 @Western Kentucky L 70 - 76 30%
 Sat, Feb 7 159 Kennesaw St. W 76 - 75 52%
 Wed, Feb 11 257 UTEP W 69 - 63 71%
 Sat, Feb 14 139 New Mexico St. L 67 - 68 49%
 Wed, Feb 18 234 @Louisiana Tech L 62 - 63 45%
 Sat, Feb 21 141 @Sam Houston St. L 70 - 77 27%
 Thu, Feb 26 271 Delaware W 68 - 61 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 95 Liberty L 67 - 72 33%
 Thu, Mar 5 139 @New Mexico St. L 64 - 71 28%
 Sat, Mar 7 257 @UTEP W 66 - 65 50%
Totals 12 - 16 10 - 10 -2 -2 C- C- C- -1 C B- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.3 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.3 4.6 1.0 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.5 5.0 5.7 1.1 0.1 12.4 5th
6th 0.2 3.2 6.8 1.9 0.1 12.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 6.7 3.1 0.2 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 5.4 4.3 0.4 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.5 0.9 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.3 1.9 3.3 1.0 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 0.8 0.0 3.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.5 8.4 13.0 15.7 16.6 14.8 11.0 7.4 3.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 72.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 57.9% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 32.0% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 11.1% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.6% 11.6% 11.6% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-5 1.6% 11.4% 11.4% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4
14-6 3.7% 10.0% 10.0% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.3
13-7 7.4% 8.8% 8.8% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.8
12-8 11.0% 6.2% 6.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 10.3
11-9 14.8% 3.6% 3.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 14.3
10-10 16.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.1 0.3 16.3
9-11 15.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 15.5
8-12 13.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.9
7-13 8.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.4
6-14 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.5
5-15 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 14.8 96.8 0.0%