Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -1.9 194
Results Rating -3.6 226
Consistency 0.15 137
Pace 63.3 323
Improvement +4.6 31

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 215 C- C- C- B- B+
Defense C 174 C C+ C- D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% 9 D 52% 317 +2.4 95
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 248 D- 31% 352 -3.4 335
Three Pointers 38% 232 B 37% 60 +0.4 163
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.5 22 D+ -2.1 259
1st FG Attempt C- 1.01 194
Second Chance C- 28.9% 221 C- 0.99 242 C- 0.29 240
Opponents' Steals B 8.2% 69
Other Turnovers D- 9.0% 341
Turnovers C- 17.2% 206
Freethrows B 0.35 56 D 69% 297 B- 0.24 119
Total Offense C- -1.8 215

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 37% 333 C+ 10.5% 140
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 27% 143 C- 6.0% 251
Three Pointers C- 82% 237 C+ 0.8% 149
Total D+ 50% 292 C- 6.1% 237

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 190 C+ 56% 121 -0.9 138
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 322 C 38% 189 -1.8 42
Three Pointers 46% 46 C 34% 184 +2.4 296
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 273 C+ -0.8 148
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 170
Second Chance B- 28.4% 100 C 1.04 194 C+ 0.29 129
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.6% 246
Other Turnovers C+ 7.8% 119
Turnovers C- 16.3% 209
Freethrows D+ 0.33 274 F 77% 359 D 0.26 317
Total Defense C -0.1 174

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 138 C 11.1% 165
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 234 D+ 3.4% 265
Three Pointers C 84% 166 D 0.2% 331
Total C- 57% 214 C- 4.9% 232

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 300 17.4 205
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 204 0.18 208
Consistency 0.13 244 0.11 81
Improvement +3.9 25 +0.7 145

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 220 191 161
Results Rating Rank 267 219 178
Conference Record 9 - 11 10 - 10 12 - 8
Conference Finish 7 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 6% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 8% 16% 3%
.500 or above in Conference 79% 100% 65%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round4% 6% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Liberty (Home) - 40.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 76 - 9
Quad 47 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 14 228 Coastal Carolina W 74 - 67 68% +7  80% 1 - 0 C +0 C +2 C- A- C C -1 A+ F F+
 Wed, Nov 19 185 South Alabama L 65 - 71 61% +6  81% 1 - 1 D -11 D- -8 C- D C- C- -3 C- C D
 Mon, Nov 24 145 @Arkansas St. L 63 - 74 28% -7  13% 1 - 2 D+ -7 F -14 F F+ F A- +7 C+ A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 137 North Dakota St. L 43 - 56 37% -10  13% 1 - 3 D- -12 F -27 F D- F A+ +14 C+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 342 North Alabama L 66 - 73 89% +2  61% 1 - 4 F -22 F -13 F B C+ F+ -9 C+ D F
 Sat, Dec 13 296 @Georgia St. L 73 - 77 62% -5  5% 1 - 5 D -9 C+ +2 F+ B+ A+ F -11 D D- F
 Wed, Dec 17 287 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 62 78% -5  3% 1 - 6 D- -13 F -19 F F C B +5 B+ D- A+
 Sat, Dec 20 135 @East Tennessee St. W 81 - 75 27% +1  46% 2 - 6 B +10 A+ +19 A+ C+ C- D- -7 F B B-
 Mon, Dec 29 140 Western Kentucky W 78 - 67 49% +12  89% 3 - 6 1 - 0 B +9 B- +4 A+ F F B +5 A B B-
 Fri, Jan 2 268 @Delaware W 67 - 64 55% +4  86% 4 - 6 2 - 0 C -0 C +0 C C+ F C -0 D A F
 Sun, Jan 4 111 @Liberty L 69 - 78 21% -4  23% 4 - 7 2 - 1 C- -3 C +0 F+ C+ A- D+ -4 A+ F D
 Wed, Jan 7 203 Florida International W 71 - 64 63% +1  56% 5 - 7 3 - 1 C +2 C- -1 B+ A- F B- +3 C A C+
 Sat, Jan 10 154 @Kennesaw St. L 82 - 88 31% -5  2% 5 - 8 3 - 2 C- -3 B- +5 A C C- D- -7 C- F D-
 Wed, Jan 14 105 Sam Houston St. L 62 - 77 38% -7  1% 5 - 9 3 - 3 D- -14 D- -6 D D+ B F+ -10 F D+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 216 Louisiana Tech W 64 - 60 66% +10  98% 6 - 9 4 - 3 C- -2 C+ +2 B- C- C- D+ -4 B- F D+
 Fri, Jan 23 160 Middle Tennessee W 75 - 58 55% +9  95% 7 - 9 5 - 3 B+ +14 B+ +9 A F C+ A- +7 A B- D
 Wed, Jan 28 203 @Florida International W 78 - 74 40% -4  17% 8 - 9 6 - 3 C+ +5 D -6 C F C A +10 C A A+
 Sat, Jan 31 207 @Missouri St. L 67 - 74 41% -7  6% 8 - 10 6 - 4 D+ -7 D- -6 F A F C -0 D+ F+ C
 Thu, Feb 5 140 @Western Kentucky W 71 - 66 27% +1  52% 9 - 10 7 - 4 B +9 D+ -3 F A- F A+ +12 A A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 154 Kennesaw St. W 77 - 58 54% +11  92% 10 - 10 8 - 4 A- +16 B- +4 B C+ C+ A+ +13 A+ D+ C
 Wed, Feb 11 246 UTEP L 64 - 69 71% -0  46% 10 - 11 8 - 5 D- -13 D+ -3 A- D+ F+ F -11 F B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 14 176 New Mexico St. L 70 - 79 58% -5  12% 10 - 12 8 - 6 D- -13 D -4 F C+ A+ F+ -9 C+ F D
 Wed, Feb 18 216 @Louisiana Tech L 71 - 77 43% -11  0% 10 - 13 8 - 7 D+ -6 C- -1 B+ F C+ D -5 F B B
 Sat, Feb 21 105 @Sam Houston St. L 78 - 82 20% -3  29% 10 - 14 8 - 8 C+ +3 B+ +8 B+ F A+ D -5 C- C C-
 Thu, Feb 26 268 Delaware W 80 - 70 OT 76% +2  59% 11 - 14 9 - 8 C +1 C+ +3 B+ C- C+ C- -2 C- A D+
 Sat, Feb 28 111 Liberty L 69 - 71 41%
 Thu, Mar 5 176 @New Mexico St. L 69 - 73 35%
 Sat, Mar 7 246 @UTEP L 66 - 67 49%
Totals 12 - 16 10 - 10 -2 C- -2 A+ D+ B+ C +0 B D B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D D- B D+ 48% 31% 38% B+ C- C- C- C- C- B D B- C C+ C C C+ 38% 16% 46% D+ C B- C C+ C- D+ F D
1.06 52% 31% 37% -2 +1 1.01 29% 1.0 .29 17% .35 69% .24 1.09 56% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 28% 1.0 .29 16% .33 77% .27
Nov
14		 Coastal Carolina C D- F B D- 47% 14% 39% A+ C- D+ A+ A- C A D+ A- C B+ F+ A+ A+ 32% 21% 47% D- A+ D- F F F+ C- F F
1.11 48% 14% 37% -7 +1 0.92 24% 1.7 .39 12% .39 70% .27 1.00 47% 45% 16% -15 0 0.72 30% 1.3 .40 12% .27 94% .26
Nov
19		 South Alabama D- F D+ B- D+ 33% 5% 62% B C- D D D C- F F F C- B F A- C 57% 19% 23% D C- B+ F C D F B- D-
0.98 44% 33% 35% -4 +2 0.98 27% 1.0 .27 18% .07 25% .02 1.07 52% 56% 27% -3 +2 1.00 18% 1.5 .27 11% .41 63% .25
Nov
24		 Arkansas St. F F A+ F F 38% 16% 46% B- F B- F F+ F A+ D- A+ A- B A+ C- B 39% 8% 53% D- C+ A+ C+ A+ B- F D- F
0.86 47% 75% 17% -10 +1 0.84 31% 0.6 .18 20% .50 66% .33 1.01 53% 0% 35% -5 +2 0.96 22% 1.0 .22 22% .51 79% .40
Nov
26		 North Dakota St. F F F F F 29% 29% 43% D- F C F D- F A+ F A+ A+ F A+ F C- 23% 34% 43% A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ C D- A+ C
0.69 42% 17% 22% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 24% .49 57% .28 0.90 70% 20% 42% +2 -3 1.00 23% 0.4 .09 16% .33 59% .19
Dec
1		 North Alabama F F F D+ F 46% 8% 46% B F D+ A+ B C+ A- F F+ F+ A- D B- B- 52% 10% 38% F C+ C- D- D F C F D
1.00 41% 0% 32% -13 +2 0.81 31% 1.5 .45 14% .35 45% .16 1.11 44% 40% 30% -9 +2 0.88 32% 1.2 .37 14% .32 78% .25
Dec
13		 Georgia St. C+ F F B F 54% 10% 37% A F+ C- A+ B+ A+ B- F F+ F A+ F D+ D 21% 26% 53% C D C- F D- F F F+ F
1.11 43% 20% 37% -8 +3 0.90 32% 1.3 .41 6% .32 50% .16 1.17 33% 45% 35% -3 -2 0.93 28% 1.2 .34 11% .54 84% .46
Dec
17		 Eastern Kentucky F F B+ F F 48% 14% 38% A- F D+ F F C A+ B- A+ B A+ B D+ A 31% 13% 56% F B+ F C+ D- A+ B F C-
0.93 45% 50% 25% -10 +1 0.86 31% 0.5 .17 16% .47 76% .36 0.98 29% 33% 36% -8 0 0.87 39% 1.1 .42 27% .22 90% .19
Dec
20		 East Tennessee St. A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 45% 5% 50% A- A+ A+ F C+ C- A+ F A+ D- B F F F 39% 21% 39% B- F A- D B B- F D F
1.31 61% 50% 55% +18 +2 1.43 42% 0.7 .31 19% .54 67% .36 1.21 53% 50% 53% +12 0 1.26 21% 1.2 .25 18% .57 79% .45
Dec
29		 Western Kentucky B- B A+ A+ A+ 46% 3% 51% A+ A+ F+ F F F A+ C- A+ B A A- A A 31% 13% 56% C- A F A+ B B- D A C
1.13 63% 100% 50% +16 +3 1.40 20% 0.6 .12 25% .75 69% .52 0.97 41% 29% 27% -13 +1 0.78 44% 0.6 .26 16% .36 67% .24
Jan
2		 Delaware C D+ F C- D 51% 3% 46% A+ C D A+ C+ F A+ F A+ C D F C- D 28% 10% 62% D D C+ A+ A F A+ F+ A+
1.11 55% 0% 33% -3 +3 1.03 26% 1.3 .33 18% .53 69% .37 1.06 64% 60% 35% +5 +1 1.14 19% 0.3 .06 13% .12 83% .10
Jan
4		 Liberty C D- F D F 51% 10% 39% A F+ B- D+ C+ A- A+ A+ A+ D+ A A+ C- A+ 50% 4% 46% D+ A+ F B+ F D F F F
1.08 48% 20% 32% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.2 .40 14% .35 89% .31 1.23 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 31% 0.9 .28 11% .49 79% .39
Jan
7		 Florida International C- C- A A+ B+ 44% 10% 46% B B+ B- A- A- F A+ B- A+ B- C- F+ A C 46% 23% 31% C C A+ D- A C+ D F F
1.10 56% 50% 42% +6 +2 1.17 38% 1.2 .46 25% .41 75% .31 0.99 59% 45% 27% -1 0 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 19% .36 84% .30
Jan
10		 Kennesaw St. B- C- A+ A+ A- 55% 4% 40% A+ A C+ D+ C C- B F D+ D- C+ A+ C- C 48% 9% 43% D- C- C+ F F D- F D- F
1.13 54% 50% 47% +6 +3 1.21 31% 0.9 .28 17% .45 63% .28 1.21 55% 25% 35% -2 +2 1.02 33% 1.5 .52 14% .54 74% .40
Jan
14		 Sam Houston St. D- F A+ F+ D- 47% 13% 40% A- D C D- D+ B B F C F+ F A+ F F 49% 11% 40% F F B+ F D+ B A+ C A+
1.00 48% 50% 28% -7 +2 0.91 29% 0.9 .26 14% .36 63% .23 1.24 74% 20% 47% +14 +2 1.34 30% 1.3 .39 19% .14 71% .10
Jan
17		 Louisiana Tech C+ D+ F A C+ 45% 9% 45% B+ B- D+ C+ C- C- A- B+ A D+ B+ F+ A C+ 40% 31% 29% B+ B- F D+ F D+ C+ F F
1.10 50% 0% 40% -3 +2 1.00 30% 1.1 .33 19% .38 78% .30 1.03 47% 46% 25% -6 -1 0.88 44% 0.9 .38 17% .27 92% .25
Jan
23		 Middle Tennessee B+ D- F A+ A 60% 9% 32% A+ A C F F C+ B A A A- A+ F B+ A+ 40% 17% 43% F+ A B- C+ B- D C A+ B-
1.23 50% 25% 60% +7 +3 1.21 26% 0.6 .15 15% .37 84% .31 0.95 42% 50% 30% -7 +1 0.89 28% 0.9 .25 13% .26 57% .15
Jan
28		 Florida International D A- F F D+ 62% 8% 30% A+ C F C- F C A+ D A+ A C D+ A- B- 50% 10% 40% F C A+ B- A A+ D D D-
0.98 68% 25% 20% -1 +3 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 20% .50 69% .34 0.93 58% 40% 29% -3 +2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 24% .36 73% .26
Jan
31		 Missouri St. D- B B F D- 24% 50% 26% F F A+ D- A F A+ B A+ C F C+ C+ D- 21% 32% 47% A D+ D F+ F+ C D+ A+ B-
0.98 70% 43% 18% -1 -5 0.90 50% 0.9 .47 26% .54 78% .42 1.08 90% 33% 32% +4 -3 1.04 35% 1.3 .44 18% .37 57% .21
Feb
5		 Western Kentucky D+ F A F F 56% 26% 18% B+ F A B A- F A+ B- A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A 26% 22% 52% A- A B+ A+ A+ C- F+ F F
0.99 41% 50% 14% -12 +1 0.79 37% 1.0 .37 22% .90 72% .65 0.92 57% 17% 25% -12 -1 0.76 27% 0.6 .16 14% .39 88% .34
Feb
7		 Kennesaw St. B- C- C+ A B 41% 11% 48% B B C C+ C+ C+ B- D C A+ A B- A+ A+ 31% 12% 57% B- A+ B+ F D+ C C C C
1.16 53% 40% 41% +3 +1 1.11 30% 1.0 .30 15% .43 71% .30 0.88 44% 33% 21% -16 +1 0.71 30% 1.2 .36 17% .34 68% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
11		 UTEP D+ C+ D- A+ A- 37% 22% 41% C+ A- D+ C- D+ F+ D- F F F C- F+ F F 24% 17% 59% F+ F C+ A+ B+ B- F D- F
1.07 60% 33% 47% +8 0 1.17 31% 1.0 .31 22% .30 57% .17 1.15 60% 43% 46% +12 -1 1.24 25% 0.7 .18 18% .39 74% .29
Feb
14		 New Mexico St. D F F D- F 43% 16% 41% B+ F F+ A+ C+ A+ F+ F F F+ C A+ B- B+ 42% 9% 49% F C+ B F F D F F F
1.06 40% 22% 29% -13 +1 0.78 23% 1.6 .37 5% .30 68% .21 1.20 58% 0% 32% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.6 .44 12% .54 84% .45
Feb
18		 Louisiana Tech C- F D A+ A- 36% 19% 45% C- B+ F F+ F C+ A- F C+ D F A F+ F 50% 15% 35% F F A D+ B B F+ B+ D+
1.01 41% 33% 48% +2 0 1.06 24% 0.9 .21 17% .38 64% .24 1.10 83% 29% 38% +13 +2 1.30 26% 0.9 .22 21% .34 58% .20
Feb
21		 Sam Houston St. B+ A+ F A- A- 39% 22% 39% C B+ F F F A+ D+ A C D D B- D+ C- 38% 20% 42% C+ C- B D C C- F F F
1.16 76% 17% 38% +5 0 1.11 20% 0.7 .13 10% .30 78% .23 1.22 65% 33% 37% +3 0 1.09 32% 1.1 .35 16% .50 82% .41
Feb
26		 Delaware C+ D- F A+ B- 49% 8% 43% A+ B+ D+ B C- C+ B A+ A C- A+ F F C+ 41% 6% 53% F C- C+ A+ A D+ F D+ F
1.20 52% 0% 50% +4 +2 1.16 27% 1.1 .30 13% .31 94% .29 1.05 40% 67% 42% +1 +2 1.08 19% 0.3 .05 16% .34 79% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.2 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.5 7.3 5.8 13.5 3rd
4th 0.1 8.0 17.7 1.8 27.6 4th
5th 2.0 19.3 5.4 26.7 5th
6th 9.3 11.5 0.3 21.2 6th
7th 9.0 1.7 10.7 7th
8th 0.2 0.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 20.6 41.0 30.6 7.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 7.8% 8.8% 8.8% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 7.1
11-9 30.6% 6.2% 6.2% 15.3 0.0 1.2 0.6 28.7
10-10 41.0% 3.7% 3.7% 15.8 0.2 1.3 39.5
9-11 20.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 20.3
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 15.4 95.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 14.3 8.0 54.7 37.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5%
Lose Out 10.2%