Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#255
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#215
Pace63.2#330
Improvement+1.4#75

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#255
First Shot-1.9#225
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#253
Layup/Dunks-4.3#318
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#68
Freethrows+2.1#67
Improvement+1.9#39

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#225
First Shot+4.3#58
After Offensive Rebounds-6.3#363
Layups/Dunks+3.0#75
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#259
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#80
Freethrows-0.7#232
Improvement-0.4#237
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 7.5% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 37.0% 51.7% 29.2%
.500 or above in Conference 59.0% 67.3% 54.6%
Conference Champion 5.3% 7.5% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 2.3% 4.5%
First Four1.4% 1.2% 1.6%
First Round5.1% 6.8% 4.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Away) - 34.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 83 - 11
Quad 412 - 715 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 150 South Dakota St. L 66-75 31%     0 - 1 -9.1 -5.2 -3.9
  Thu, Nov 6 23 @Auburn L 57-95 3%     0 - 2 -20.1 -7.6 -13.8
  Tue, Nov 11 195 @Tarleton St. L 62-76 29%     0 - 3 -13.2 -13.4 +0.9
  Sat, Nov 15 227 @Boston University W 91-79 34%     1 - 3 +11.0 +22.0 -10.0
  Wed, Nov 19 321 Maine W 72-65 73%     2 - 3 -4.6 +7.3 -11.0
  Fri, Nov 21 17 @Florida L 45-80 2%     2 - 4 -14.9 -14.0 -3.2
  Fri, Nov 28 223 @Penn L 70-74 35%    
  Sat, Nov 29 162 Hofstra L 66-70 34%    
  Sun, Nov 30 214 La Salle L 68-70 43%    
  Thu, Dec 4 343 Rider W 72-63 81%    
  Sun, Dec 7 288 Fairfield W 73-68 67%    
  Wed, Dec 10 238 @Princeton L 66-70 37%    
  Sun, Dec 14 171 @Vermont L 66-73 26%    
  Mon, Dec 29 261 @Sacred Heart L 73-76 40%    
  Fri, Jan 2 297 Mount St. Mary's W 71-66 69%    
  Sun, Jan 4 318 Manhattan W 77-71 72%    
  Fri, Jan 9 177 @Siena L 64-71 28%    
  Sun, Jan 11 295 @St. Peter's L 65-66 47%    
  Sat, Jan 17 193 Quinnipiac L 72-73 50%    
  Mon, Jan 19 154 @Marist L 58-66 24%    
  Thu, Jan 22 167 @Iona L 71-78 26%    
  Sat, Jan 24 295 St. Peter's W 68-63 67%    
  Sun, Feb 1 261 Sacred Heart W 76-73 61%    
  Thu, Feb 5 297 @Mount St. Mary's L 68-69 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 343 @Rider W 69-66 62%    
  Thu, Feb 12 154 Marist L 61-63 44%    
  Sun, Feb 15 193 @Quinnipiac L 69-75 30%    
  Fri, Feb 20 177 Siena L 67-68 46%    
  Sun, Feb 22 167 Iona L 74-75 46%    
  Fri, Feb 27 348 @Canisius W 67-64 62%    
  Sun, Mar 1 333 @Niagara W 66-64 57%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 3.4 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 4.1 3.5 0.7 0.1 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.4 3.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.7 4.0 0.9 0.1 11.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 4.3 4.2 1.2 0.1 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.2 1.4 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.7 1.6 0.2 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 1.6 0.2 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.2 3.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.2 5.4 7.8 9.8 11.8 12.1 11.7 10.8 9.2 6.7 4.2 2.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 96.6% 0.5    0.5 0.0
17-3 81.7% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 65.7% 1.7    0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 32.6% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 8.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 45.5% 45.5% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.5% 26.8% 26.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-3 1.1% 27.6% 27.6% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
16-4 2.6% 20.7% 20.7% 14.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.1
15-5 4.2% 17.6% 17.6% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 3.5
14-6 6.7% 13.8% 13.8% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 5.7
13-7 9.2% 11.2% 11.2% 15.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 8.2
12-8 10.8% 8.4% 8.4% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 9.9
11-9 11.7% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.1 0.5 11.1
10-10 12.1% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 11.8
9-11 11.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 11.6
8-12 9.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.8
7-13 7.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.7
6-14 5.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.4
5-15 3.2% 3.2
4-16 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.9 94.1 0.0%