Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.6 #241
Expected Predictive Rating -0.5 #174
Pace 62.7 #337
Improvement +1.9 #82

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #263 D- F B- B B
Defense #205 C F B- C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #210 1.05 #309 -2.8 #279
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #323 0.68 #269 -3.7 #339
Three Pointers 50% #28 0.89 #316 +1.4 #131
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #310 -5.1 #317
Freethrows 18.5 #125 77% #55 14.2 #83
Second Chance 23.7% #341 0.93 #310 0.22 #350
Turnovers 15.1% #96
Total Offense -3.3 #263

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #67 1.10 #103 -1.2 #223
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #107 0.86 #319 -2.0 #325
Three Pointers 35% #333 0.98 #146 +3.8 #50
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #166 +0.5 #166
Freethrows 18.6 #253 71% #115 13.2 #138
Second Chance 41.7% #365 1.00 #122 0.42 #348
Turnovers 18.0% #91
Total Defense -1.2 #205

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #68 0.1% #172
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.0% #341 -1.2% #161
Possession Length 18.1 #260 18.3 #320
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #166 0.13 #48
Improvement +1.6 #87 +0.3 #166

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 7.7% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.2
.500 or above 70.2% 83.7% 59.9%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 97.6% 88.8%
Conference Champion 9.0% 15.9% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.5%
First Round6.0% 7.5% 4.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Home) - 43.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 84 - 11
Quad 413 - 517 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 176 South Dakota St. L 66 - 75 37% -2  0 - 1 -10 -8 F F C -2 C+ D- A-
 Thu, Nov 6 27 @Auburn L 57 - 95 3% -18  0 - 2 -20 -8 F F B+ -13 B+ F D
 Tue, Nov 11 173 @Tarleton St. L 62 - 76 26% -5  0 - 3 -12 -12 F F F +1 D+ B- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 256 @Boston University W 91 - 79 42% +10  1 - 3 +10 +20 A+ C+ F -10 D F D
 Wed, Nov 19 341 Maine W 72 - 65 82% +3  2 - 3 -7 +6 D A- B -12 C+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 12 @Florida L 45 - 80 1% -24  2 - 4 -12 -13 F D C- -2 A+ F B
 Fri, Nov 28 206 @Penn L 65 - 77 32% -4  2 - 5 -12 -8 F F A+ -5 D+ F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 110 Hofstra L 58 - 78 21% -12  2 - 6 -16 -10 D+ F B -7 C- B+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 208 La Salle W 66 - 60 43% +4  3 - 6 +3 -1 D- D- B +5 C D A+
 Thu, Dec 4 348 Rider W 68 - 66 85% +1  4 - 6 1 - 0 -14 -2 C+ F C+ -11 F F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 281 Fairfield W 74 - 63 69% +10  5 - 6 2 - 0 +1 +1 B- F C +1 D A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 221 @Princeton W 59 - 56 34% +2  6 - 6 +3 +1 D- F A+ +3 A+ F D+
 Sun, Dec 14 195 @Vermont L 59 - 66 30% -7  6 - 7 -6 -4 F C F -4 A+ D D-
 Mon, Dec 29 285 @Sacred Heart W 80 - 72 48% +8  7 - 7 3 - 0 +4 +8 C+ F B- -4 D D C-
 Fri, Jan 2 297 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 65 73% +6  8 - 7 4 - 0 -1 -0 F D+ C- -1 A C- B+
 Sun, Jan 4 312 Manhattan W 73 - 66 76% +4  9 - 7 5 - 0 -5 -5 C F B+ +1 B C F
 Fri, Jan 9 177 @Siena W 63 - 59 28% +9  10 - 7 6 - 0 +6 +11 C+ C- A+ -4 C F C+
 Sun, Jan 11 246 @St. Peter's L 63 - 76 39% -9  10 - 8 6 - 1 -15 +0 F B- C -17 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 156 Quinnipiac L 70 - 72 43%
 Mon, Jan 19 129 @Marist L 59 - 68 19%
 Thu, Jan 22 198 @Iona L 69 - 74 32%
 Sat, Jan 24 246 St. Peter's W 66 - 63 62%
 Sun, Feb 1 285 Sacred Heart W 74 - 69 69%
 Thu, Feb 5 297 @Mount St. Mary's W 68 - 67 51%
 Sat, Feb 7 348 @Rider W 67 - 62 68%
 Thu, Feb 12 129 Marist L 62 - 65 38%
 Sun, Feb 15 156 @Quinnipiac L 67 - 75 24%
 Fri, Feb 20 177 Siena L 66 - 67 50%
 Sun, Feb 22 198 Iona W 72 - 71 53%
 Fri, Feb 27 337 @Canisius W 66 - 62 63%
 Sun, Mar 1 355 @Niagara W 68 - 62 70%
Totals 16 - 15 12 - 8 -5 -3 D- F B- -1 C F B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.9 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.3 4.7 0.9 0.1 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 6.6 7.1 1.2 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 6.8 8.1 1.8 0.1 18.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 6.4 8.3 2.5 0.1 18.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 4.7 6.4 2.1 0.1 14.2 6th
7th 0.3 2.1 3.2 1.0 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 5.0 9.9 15.2 18.6 18.8 15.1 8.9 4.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 96.4% 1.5    1.3 0.2
16-4 77.9% 3.3    1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 33.0% 2.9    0.7 1.3 0.8 0.1
14-6 5.9% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 4.2 3.0 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.3% 23.1% 23.1% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3
17-3 1.5% 16.2% 16.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.3
16-4 4.2% 15.0% 15.0% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.5
15-5 8.9% 11.7% 11.7% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 7.8
14-6 15.1% 9.3% 9.3% 15.1 0.2 0.9 0.3 13.7
13-7 18.8% 7.0% 7.0% 15.3 0.1 0.8 0.4 17.5
12-8 18.6% 4.8% 4.8% 15.6 0.4 0.5 17.7
11-9 15.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.7 0.1 0.3 14.8
10-10 9.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.7
9-11 5.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.9
8-12 1.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 15.1 93.7 0.0%