Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.2#20
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#61
Pace70.8#157
Improvement+1.8#52

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#20
First Shot+10.6#5
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#293
Layup/Dunks+1.6#123
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#100
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#58
Freethrows+3.5#29
Improvement+0.6#122

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#32
First Shot+4.3#59
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#63
Layups/Dunks+4.5#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#298
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#136
Freethrows+0.5#153
Improvement+1.2#64
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.3% 2.8% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 6.6% 7.8% 2.7%
Top 4 Seed 23.9% 27.4% 13.3%
Top 6 Seed 46.2% 51.0% 31.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 82.2% 85.7% 71.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.6% 85.1% 71.3%
Average Seed 6.1 5.9 6.8
.500 or above 95.4% 97.1% 90.3%
.500 or above in Conference 76.0% 78.8% 67.9%
Conference Champion 3.1% 3.5% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 1.1%
First Four4.3% 3.8% 5.6%
First Round80.4% 84.0% 69.6%
Second Round57.8% 61.7% 46.1%
Sweet Sixteen27.4% 30.2% 18.7%
Elite Eight12.1% 13.7% 7.1%
Final Four4.9% 5.8% 2.4%
Championship Game2.0% 2.3% 1.1%
National Champion0.8% 0.9% 0.3%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Away) - 75.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 9
Quad 27 - 213 - 10
Quad 33 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 355 IU Indianapolis W 118-102 99%     1 - 0 +0.0 +13.4 -16.4
  Fri, Nov 7 236 Purdue Fort Wayne W 94-68 97%     2 - 0 +18.6 +12.7 +5.0
  Tue, Nov 11 279 Appalachian St. W 75-53 98%     3 - 0 +12.6 +8.0 +7.7
  Sun, Nov 16 66 Notre Dame W 64-63 82%     4 - 0 +6.5 -2.7 +9.2
  Thu, Nov 20 243 Western Michigan W 91-58 97%     5 - 0 +25.3 +11.4 +12.8
  Tue, Nov 25 297 Mount St. Mary's W 113-60 98%     6 - 0 +42.6 +30.6 +9.6
  Fri, Nov 28 99 @Pittsburgh W 76-69 75%    
  Sat, Dec 6 56 @Northwestern W 76-73 60%    
  Tue, Dec 9 13 Illinois W 81-80 52%    
  Sat, Dec 13 71 West Virginia W 74-67 75%    
  Sat, Dec 20 26 North Carolina W 79-78 54%    
  Tue, Dec 23 290 Grambling St. W 86-61 99%    
  Fri, Jan 2 120 @Rutgers W 77-68 81%    
  Mon, Jan 5 43 Nebraska W 81-75 72%    
  Thu, Jan 8 80 @Oregon W 78-73 68%    
  Sun, Jan 11 48 @Washington W 77-75 56%    
  Sat, Jan 17 32 UCLA W 74-69 67%    
  Tue, Jan 20 103 Minnesota W 76-62 89%    
  Fri, Jan 23 1 @Michigan L 72-85 12%    
  Mon, Jan 26 100 Penn St. W 82-69 88%    
  Sat, Jan 31 27 @Wisconsin L 78-80 44%    
  Thu, Feb 5 93 @Maryland W 80-73 72%    
  Sun, Feb 8 1 Michigan L 75-82 25%    
  Wed, Feb 11 31 USC W 82-77 66%    
  Sat, Feb 14 39 Virginia W 77-74 61%    
  Tue, Feb 17 27 Wisconsin W 81-77 65%    
  Sun, Feb 22 12 @Michigan St. L 70-76 30%    
  Wed, Feb 25 21 @Iowa L 71-74 39%    
  Sun, Mar 1 3 Purdue L 74-78 36%    
  Wed, Mar 4 100 @Penn St. W 79-72 74%    
  Sat, Mar 7 22 Indiana W 77-74 61%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 3.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.1 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.3 3.5 1.3 0.2 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.5 4.1 1.7 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 5.0 2.7 0.2 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.3 3.3 0.6 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.2 1.1 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 4.1 1.5 0.1 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 3.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 5.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.2 0.7 0.0 4.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.2 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 2.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.7 9.0 11.2 12.7 13.4 12.7 10.3 7.6 4.5 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.6% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 78.1% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0
17-3 47.8% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 15.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 3.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.1% 3.1 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 1.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 1.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.4% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 2.1 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.5% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 2.7 0.6 1.3 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.6% 100.0% 7.8% 92.2% 3.6 0.3 1.0 2.4 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.3% 100.0% 6.5% 93.5% 4.4 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.9 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 12.7% 99.8% 3.0% 96.8% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.3 3.4 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 13.4% 99.1% 1.4% 97.7% 6.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 3.6 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.1%
11-9 12.7% 95.6% 1.2% 94.5% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.2 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.6 95.6%
10-10 11.2% 86.1% 1.1% 85.1% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.7 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.0 1.6 86.0%
9-11 9.0% 64.3% 0.4% 63.9% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.4 0.1 3.2 64.1%
8-12 6.7% 32.6% 0.2% 32.4% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.1 4.5 32.5%
7-13 4.1% 10.9% 10.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 3.7 10.9%
6-14 2.3% 1.9% 1.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 1.9%
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 82.2% 3.3% 79.0% 6.1 2.3 4.2 7.9 9.4 10.7 11.6 11.1 9.3 6.7 5.1 3.6 0.2 17.8 81.6%