Portland
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.0 #233
Expected Predictive Rating -2.2 #204
Pace 72.0 #98
Improvement +0.9 #132

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #227 C B- F D C+
Defense #238 C C C C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #69 1.26 #83 +4.8 #42
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #180 0.72 #218 -0.4 #199
Three Pointers 37% #272 0.89 #315 -4.4 #320
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #182 -0.1 #179
Freethrows 14.8 #301 74% #142 11.0 #282
Second Chance 31.2% #163 1.16 #54 0.36 #92
Turnovers 19.7% #337
Total Offense -2.0 #227

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #235 1.18 #211 +0.8 #145
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #269 0.60 #14 +2.5 #26
Three Pointers 46% #52 1.00 #169 -2.3 #280
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #148 +1.0 #149
Freethrows 17.4 #188 75% #276 13.0 #157
Second Chance 31.7% #224 1.05 #195 0.33 #217
Turnovers 16.6% #184
Total Defense -2.0 #238

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #142 0.5% #209
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.9% #187 -2.4% #139
Possession Length 16.7 #120 17.5 #212
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #215 0.19 #242
Improvement +3.5 #24 -2.6 #321

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 1.3% 2.4% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 3.7% 6.5% 0.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 16.8% 5.1% 28.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Away) - 50.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 60 - 10
Quad 33 - 64 - 17
Quad 47 - 311 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83 - 74 81% +14  1 - 0 -4 -9 D- F F +4 A+ D- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 188 UC Davis W 67 - 63 53% -0  2 - 0 -1 -9 F D+ F +8 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 96 @Wyoming L 56 - 93 13% -16  2 - 1 -29 -15 F F C -14 C F D
 Fri, Nov 21 231 Cal St. Fullerton W 103 - 85 61% +13  3 - 1 +11 +16 A+ A+ B- -6 F A B+
 Sat, Nov 22 174 Northern Colorado L 80 - 86 OT 50% -2  3 - 2 -10 -7 D- A+ F -3 B+ D+ D-
 Sun, Nov 23 128 St. Thomas L 66 - 76 39% -5  3 - 3 -11 -10 C B+ F -1 A F D
 Wed, Nov 26 264 Long Beach St. W 93 - 73 68% +11  4 - 3 +11 +13 A+ C+ F -3 B- C B
 Mon, Dec 1 77 @Stanford L 72 - 94 10% -14  4 - 4 -12 +6 A+ B F -18 F F F
 Sun, Dec 14 146 Kent St. W 88 - 78 43% +0  5 - 4 +8 -1 B D F +7 A+ D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 72 @Oregon L 69 - 94 9% -11  5 - 5 -14 -7 D+ C F -5 F B+ B-
 Mon, Dec 22 181 @UC Santa Barbara L 61 - 79 30% -11  5 - 6 -17 -8 F A+ F -10 F D B
 Sun, Dec 28 136 Washington St. L 62 - 67 41% -3  5 - 7 0 - 1 -7 -10 F A+ A+ +3 A- A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 55 Santa Clara L 85 - 92 16% -1  5 - 8 0 - 2 -0 +12 A+ A- C -12 F A A
 Fri, Jan 2 42 @St. Mary's L 57 - 78 5% -14  5 - 9 0 - 3 -6 -4 F C- B- -4 D A C
 Sun, Jan 4 103 @San Francisco L 68 - 73 13% +4  5 - 10 0 - 4 +3 +2 A F F +1 A+ D+ C-
 Thu, Jan 8 144 Pacific W 90 - 89 OT 43% +4  6 - 10 1 - 4 -1 +12 A A+ F -13 C+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 189 Oregon St. W 82 - 76 53% -2  7 - 10 2 - 4 +1 +11 D+ A+ A+ -10 C- B F
 Wed, Jan 14 286 @Pepperdine W 73 - 72 51%
 Sat, Jan 17 130 @Loyola Marymount L 68 - 77 21%
 Sat, Jan 24 42 St. Mary's L 67 - 80 11%
 Wed, Jan 28 144 @Pacific L 70 - 78 23%
 Sat, Jan 31 136 @Washington St. L 72 - 80 22%
 Wed, Feb 4 10 Gonzaga L 70 - 91 3%
 Sat, Feb 7 121 Seattle L 70 - 73 37%
 Wed, Feb 11 222 @San Diego L 76 - 80 36%
 Wed, Feb 18 286 Pepperdine W 75 - 69 71%
 Sat, Feb 21 121 @Seattle L 67 - 76 19%
 Wed, Feb 25 10 @Gonzaga L 67 - 94 1%
 Sat, Feb 28 222 San Diego W 79 - 77 59%
Totals 11 - 18 6 - 12 -4 -2 C B- F -2 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.5 5th
6th 0.9 2.9 0.9 0.1 4.8 6th
7th 0.4 4.3 2.9 0.2 7.7 7th
8th 0.1 4.1 6.7 0.7 0.0 11.6 8th
9th 0.1 3.5 10.4 3.0 0.1 17.0 9th
10th 0.1 3.2 12.4 6.3 0.3 22.4 10th
11th 0.1 3.6 12.3 8.0 0.7 0.0 24.7 11th
12th 1.5 4.1 2.4 0.2 8.2 12th
Total 1.6 7.8 18.0 24.3 21.8 15.3 7.5 2.7 0.9 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.9% 0.9
9-9 2.7% 2.7
8-10 7.5% 7.5
7-11 15.3% 15.3
6-12 21.8% 21.8
5-13 24.3% 24.3
4-14 18.0% 18.0
3-15 7.8% 7.8
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%