San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.6 #227
Expected Predictive Rating -4.4 #235
Pace 64.2 #313
Improvement -0.4 #211

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #183 C C+ C C F
Defense #263 D- F A- B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #312 1.13 #214 -3.5 #298
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #36 0.77 #150 +3.6 #32
Three Pointers 37% #260 1.09 #84 -0.5 #199
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #189 -0.3 #187
Freethrows 17.1 #203 73% #182 12.4 #196
Second Chance 34.0% #90 1.04 #193 0.35 #107
Turnovers 16.6% #178
Total Offense -0.6 #183

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #191 1.32 #334 -3.0 #280
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #241 0.79 #231 +0.5 #155
Three Pointers 43% #120 1.06 #245 -2.1 #270
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #314 -4.5 #314
Freethrows 15.3 #82 74% #249 11.3 #264
Second Chance 35.5% #330 1.22 #338 0.43 #356
Turnovers 19.6% #43
Total Defense -2.9 #263

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #335 0.6% #216
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.4% #145 8.3% #319
Possession Length 19.2 #342 17.3 #194
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #235 0.21 #302
Improvement -0.3 #204 -0.1 #191

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.8% 1.6% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.7% 4.9% 15.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Home) - 42.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 91 - 14
Quad 32 - 83 - 21
Quad 46 - 19 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 113 @Utah L 75 - 84 17% -5  0 - 1 -2 +3 C+ D+ C- -5 D- D C+
 Sat, Nov 8 181 @UC Santa Barbara L 74 - 85 31% -9  0 - 2 -10 +8 D+ A+ F -19 F F C-
 Thu, Nov 13 13 @Michigan St. L 60 - 79 2% -14  0 - 3 +3 +5 C- B- A+ -3 C C- F
 Fri, Nov 21 263 Southern W 80 - 66 69% +8  1 - 3 +5 +5 C B- F +1 C A B+
 Tue, Nov 25 93 Tulsa L 51 - 81 18% -13  1 - 4 -24 -15 F D+ F -13 F F C
 Wed, Nov 26 259 Loyola Chicago W 63 - 51 58% +1  2 - 4 +6 -2 D+ F C +10 D F A+
 Sun, Nov 30 122 UC Irvine L 63 - 72 38% -5  2 - 5 -10 -3 D+ F A -7 D D- C
 Fri, Dec 5 222 San Diego W 86 - 69 60% +18  3 - 5 +11 +7 A+ A+ F +3 A+ F D-
 Tue, Dec 9 264 Long Beach St. W 89 - 83 OT 69% +1  4 - 5 -3 +10 A A+ C -13 C- F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 77 Stanford L 82 - 86 22% -8  4 - 6 +0 +13 C+ A+ A+ -13 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 48 @New Mexico L 65 - 88 6% -10  4 - 7 0 - 1 -9 +2 C C- C -12 F F C
 Tue, Dec 30 52 San Diego St. L 68 - 81 15% -4  4 - 8 0 - 2 -6 -3 F A+ F -2 D F A
 Sat, Jan 3 28 @Utah St. L 78 - 96 3% -1  4 - 9 0 - 3 -0 +19 A+ C A+ -21 F F F
 Tue, Jan 6 152 Fresno St. L 55 - 70 47% -11  4 - 10 0 - 4 -18 -11 D+ F B- -8 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 90 @Grand Canyon L 58 - 76 12% -14  4 - 11 0 - 5 -9 -7 C- D+ D- -2 F F A
 Tue, Jan 13 342 Air Force W 70 - 62 84% +4  5 - 11 1 - 5 -6 +3 C C+ C+ -8 D D- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 134 UNLV L 74 - 76 43%
 Tue, Jan 20 85 @Nevada L 65 - 78 11%
 Sat, Jan 24 96 @Wyoming L 68 - 80 13%
 Tue, Jan 27 78 Boise St. L 65 - 73 23%
 Sat, Jan 31 48 New Mexico L 68 - 80 14%
 Sat, Feb 7 97 @Colorado St. L 65 - 77 14%
 Tue, Feb 10 134 @UNLV L 71 - 79 23%
 Sat, Feb 14 90 Grand Canyon L 67 - 74 26%
 Tue, Feb 17 85 Nevada L 68 - 75 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 78 @Boise St. L 62 - 76 10%
 Tue, Feb 24 342 @Air Force W 69 - 64 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 97 Colorado St. L 68 - 74 30%
 Tue, Mar 3 152 @Fresno St. L 68 - 75 26%
 Sat, Mar 7 96 Wyoming L 71 - 77 29%
Totals 9 - 21 5 - 15 -4 -1 C C+ C -3 D- F A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.5 1.3 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 5.2 6.8 2.9 0.2 16.4 10th
11th 0.9 8.1 17.6 20.0 14.7 4.8 0.6 66.6 11th
12th 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.4 12th
Total 2.5 9.8 18.5 21.3 20.1 13.5 8.2 3.8 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.2% 0.2
10-10 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 13.0 0.0 0.5
9-11 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 1.5
8-12 3.8% 3.8
7-13 8.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.2
6-14 13.5% 13.5
5-15 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.1
4-16 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.3
3-17 18.5% 18.5
2-18 9.8% 9.8
1-19 2.5% 2.5
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.2%