Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +2.8 124
Results Rating +1.4 140
Consistency 0.13 70
Pace 72.0 91
Improvement +2.7 80

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 276 C- D+ C D+ D+
Defense B+ 30 B C+ B B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 79 C+ 60% 110 +3.2 72
2 Pt. Jumpers 55% 34 B+ 44% 43 +5.0 16
Three Pointers 28% 362 F 28% 360 -9.0 363
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 294 C +0.0 171
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 195
Second Chance C 29.5% 205 D 0.94 309 D+ 0.28 260
Opponents' Steals C- 9.8% 217
Other Turnovers C+ 6.9% 142
Turnovers C 16.7% 176
Freethrows C- 0.30 209 D 68% 306 D+ 0.20 247
Total Offense D+ -4.1 276

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 55% 71 C+ 10.1% 126
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 201 B- 3.6% 72
Three Pointers C+ 87% 125 C+ 0.7% 122
Total D+ 52% 261 C 5.5% 179

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 249 C+ 55% 108 -2.1 108
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 132 C- 39% 220 +0.7 243
Three Pointers 42% 150 B+ 30% 32 -2.1 89
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 120 B -3.2 61
1st FG Attempt B 0.95 62
Second Chance C+ 28.6% 108 C+ 1.01 146 C+ 0.29 109
Turnovers from Steals B 11.7% 43
Other Turnovers C+ 7.7% 120
Turnovers B 19.4% 46
Freethrows B- 0.28 109 B 69% 37 B- 0.19 80
Total Defense B+ +6.9 30

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 141 C+ 12.5% 110
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 233 C+ 6.0% 104
Three Pointers C- 85% 220 B- 1.3% 84
Total C+ 54% 154 C+ 6.4% 116

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 64 17.6 244
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 122 0.15 92
Consistency 0.10 36 0.12 175
Improvement -5.0 353 +7.7 2

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 133 122 109
Results Rating Rank 164 138 121
Conference Record 9 - 11 10 - 10 10 - 10
Conference Finish 8 8 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 5% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.6 13.5
.500 or above 56% 69% 8%
.500 or above in Conference 77% 100% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round4% 5% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 77.5% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 1
Quad 23 - 74 - 8
Quad 34 - 78 - 15
Quad 48 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 360 UMKC W 101 - 78 97% +11  66% 1 - 0 C+ +3 A +11 A+ B+ B- F -10 C+ F D-
 Wed, Nov 12 73 @Nevada L 81 - 86 OT 22% +1  56% 1 - 1 B- +6 C+ +2 C F+ A+ B +5 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 137 @North Dakota St. L 85 - 92 44% -4  11% 1 - 2 C- -3 C+ +3 B+ C D D+ -4 D- D C-
 Sun, Nov 23 268 Delaware W 79 - 59 80% +10  99% 2 - 2 B+ +14 C+ +2 D+ B+ C- A+ +12 B- C- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 112 UAB L 73 - 81 48% -5  9% 2 - 3 C- -5 C +0 C- D A+ D -5 C+ F C+
 Wed, Nov 26 108 @Memphis L 58 - 74 35% -11  0% 2 - 4 D -9 F -11 F C- B B- +2 C+ D- B
 Sat, Nov 29 303 Arkansas Little Rock W 74 - 65 90% +1  59% 3 - 4 C- -2 C -0 A D F C- -2 F B A+
 Wed, Dec 3 94 @High Point W 86 - 84 28% -3  27% 4 - 4 B +11 B+ +8 C- A+ A B- +3 C+ B- C+
 Wed, Dec 10 214 Tennessee Martin W 83 - 54 80% +9  83% 5 - 4 A+ +23 B+ +9 A+ B+ C+ A+ +15 A A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 130 @Richmond L 84 - 93 OT 41% -2  30% 5 - 5 C- -4 D- -7 D- B- F B +5 D A+ C
 Thu, Dec 18 98 Illinois St. L 68 - 75 53% +0  58% 5 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -5 D -5 C+ B+ F C +0 C+ F B-
 Sun, Dec 21 114 @Bradley L 69 - 73 37% -4  10% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C+ +2 D -5 D- C C+ A- +7 B- D A+
 Mon, Dec 29 121 @Murray St. L 81 - 84 38% -7  1% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C+ +3 C +1 D A+ D+ B- +2 F A+ B+
 Thu, Jan 1 150 Valparaiso W 75 - 70 70% +5  78% 6 - 8 1 - 3 C+ +3 D -6 D- C A+ A- +8 A+ A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 62 @Belmont W 68 - 67 19% +0  58% 7 - 8 2 - 3 B+ +13 D+ -4 B- C- F A+ +17 C+ A A
 Wed, Jan 7 106 @Illinois-Chicago L 57 - 70 34% -8  10% 7 - 9 2 - 4 D+ -6 F+ -9 B F D- C+ +2 A F F+
 Wed, Jan 14 189 Drake L 73 - 76 OT 77% +4  65% 7 - 10 2 - 5 D+ -8 F -15 F D A A- +7 A+ D- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 62 Belmont L 68 - 73 38% -2  35% 7 - 11 2 - 6 C +1 D- -7 D- D C+ A- +7 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 150 @Valparaiso L 63 - 69 47% -11  10% 7 - 12 2 - 7 C- -2 D+ -4 D- C- C C+ +1 F A C+
 Wed, Jan 28 95 Northern Iowa W 65 - 50 50% +6  74% 8 - 12 3 - 7 A +18 C- -1 A F B+ A+ +20 A A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 106 Illinois-Chicago L 66 - 68 57% +6  73% 8 - 13 3 - 8 C -1 D+ -3 B- F A B- +2 A F A+
 Tue, Feb 3 98 @Illinois St. W 54 - 50 31% +1  51% 9 - 13 4 - 8 B+ +12 F -14 D+ F F A+ +27 A+ A+ C+
 Fri, Feb 6 121 Murray St. L 81 - 91 61% -6  29% 9 - 14 4 - 9 D -10 C- -1 C- D- A+ F+ -9 F A+ A
 Mon, Feb 9 213 @Indiana St. W 80 - 65 60% +7  80% 10 - 14 5 - 9 A- +15 C +0 B F+ D+ A+ +14 A+ F+ A-
 Thu, Feb 12 297 Evansville W 86 - 60 90% +15  91% 11 - 14 6 - 9 A- +15 B+ +9 B A C+ A- +7 C A- B+
 Sun, Feb 15 114 Bradley L 60 - 70 60% -5  4% 11 - 15 6 - 10 D -10 F -15 F F A B +5 B- B F+
 Wed, Feb 18 189 @Drake W 66 - 61 56% -1  43% 12 - 15 7 - 10 B- +6 F -11 F F+ D A+ +17 A B A
 Sat, Feb 21 95 @Northern Iowa W 59 - 57 28% +5  89% 13 - 15 8 - 10 B +11 C +0 A B+ F A +11 A- F A+
 Wed, Feb 25 213 Indiana St. W 66 - 55 80% +9  78% 14 - 15 9 - 10 B- +5 F -12 F F+ A- A+ +17 A+ C A+
 Sun, Mar 1 297 @Evansville W 73 - 65 77%
Totals 15 - 15 10 - 10 +3 D+ -4 D+ C D+ B+ +7 F D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C+ B+ F C 42% 55% 28% D+ C- C D D+ C C- D D+ B+ C+ C- B+ B 37% 22% 42% C+ B C+ C+ C+ B B- B B-
1.03 60% 44% 28% 0 -1 1.00 30% 0.9 .28 17% .30 68% .20 0.99 55% 39% 30% -3 0 0.95 29% 1.0 .29 19% .28 69% .21
Nov
7		 UMKC A A+ A+ A- A+ 57% 25% 19% C A+ D+ A+ B+ B- A+ F A- F A+ F F+ C+ 38% 27% 35% C C+ F F F D- F A- D-
1.33 77% 54% 40% +16 +1 1.36 33% 1.4 .48 16% .41 62% .25 1.02 29% 47% 37% -7 -1 0.85 34% 1.2 .40 16% .36 61% .22
Nov
12		 Nevada C+ D A F C+ 40% 34% 26% F+ C D F F+ A+ A D- B+ B A+ F A+ A+ 25% 30% 46% A- A+ B- A+ A+ F D- B D
1.03 48% 50% 27% -3 -2 0.93 23% 0.9 .20 10% .41 66% .27 1.09 33% 50% 25% -9 -2 0.80 32% 0.7 .23 5% .44 73% .32
Nov
17		 North Dakota St. C+ A- A+ F A- 45% 29% 25% C- B+ A- F+ C D D B- D+ D+ A+ F+ F F 25% 25% 50% B D- B+ F D C- D+ F F+
1.10 72% 69% 21% +10 -1 1.22 37% 0.7 .27 21% .21 77% .16 1.19 40% 47% 47% +7 -2 1.13 28% 1.4 .39 15% .29 84% .24
Nov
23		 Delaware C+ A+ A F C+ 20% 51% 29% F D+ A C- B+ C- A+ C- A+ A+ F F A- C- 11% 32% 57% A+ B- F A C- A+ A+ B+ A+
1.16 90% 48% 14% +3 -5 0.98 41% 1.0 .41 15% .43 80% .34 0.87 80% 53% 30% +3 -3 1.02 30% 0.7 .20 28% .14 71% .10
Nov
24		 UAB C A A F C- 34% 29% 36% D C- C F D A+ D A+ C D B C- C- C- 35% 33% 33% A C+ F+ F F C+ C- C C-
1.04 70% 47% 19% -1 -1 0.97 26% 0.7 .18 11% .21 85% .18 1.15 53% 39% 33% -2 -2 0.95 38% 1.3 .50 13% .33 70% .23
Nov
26		 Memphis F C- F F F 37% 44% 19% F F B F C- B A+ F A+ B- B A- D+ B- 39% 20% 41% D+ C+ B- F D- B F+ F F
0.83 56% 21% 13% -14 -3 0.67 38% 0.7 .27 19% .58 61% .35 1.06 53% 30% 35% -3 0 0.96 34% 1.4 .49 21% .36 80% .29
Nov
29		 Arkansas Little Rock C C+ A+ A A+ 49% 17% 34% C+ A C- F+ D F A+ F B+ C- F F A+ F 34% 23% 43% F+ F C- A+ B A+ C A+ B+
1.16 65% 86% 43% +16 +1 1.37 35% 0.8 .26 23% .41 60% .25 1.02 81% 55% 25% +6 -1 1.13 31% 0.8 .24 25% .23 45% .10
Dec
3		 High Point B+ C- F A- C 45% 24% 31% D+ C- C+ A+ A+ A F C- F B- A- A+ F C+ 42% 15% 42% C+ C+ C+ B B- C+ D+ C D+
1.16 58% 29% 39% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.8 .58 16% .23 71% .16 1.13 50% 25% 41% -1 +1 1.02 30% 1.1 .33 15% .38 75% .29
Dec
10		 Tennessee Martin B+ A C+ A- A+ 52% 22% 26% B+ A+ C A+ B+ C+ B D C+ A+ A+ B A A+ 28% 12% 60% D+ A A- A+ A+ A+ A- C B+
1.19 73% 36% 38% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 19% .37 67% .25 0.77 43% 33% 27% -11 0 0.80 29% 0.5 .16 27% .24 67% .16
Dec
13		 Richmond D- F+ C- D+ D+ 27% 51% 22% F D- B C- B- F A A+ A+ B F F B D- 30% 30% 41% C+ D A+ F A+ C D+ B- C-
0.96 50% 37% 31% -4 -5 0.85 36% 1.1 .40 25% .38 80% .31 1.06 72% 56% 32% +8 -2 1.15 6% 1.5 .09 15% .36 74% .27
Dec
18		 Illinois St. D D- A+ F B 33% 44% 23% F C+ B- A B+ F A+ F C+ C F+ F A+ B- 35% 19% 46% C- C+ F+ F F B- D A+ A
0.97 50% 62% 18% +2 -3 1.00 29% 1.2 .35 23% .41 55% .22 1.07 72% 50% 25% +1 0 1.04 33% 1.3 .44 19% .32 39% .12
Dec
21		 Bradley D C A+ F D- 33% 35% 31% D D- C C+ C C+ D+ D- D A- B- A+ F B 43% 27% 29% C B- D- C- D A+ D+ F F
0.96 59% 56% 13% -4 -2 0.90 30% 1.0 .30 18% .31 67% .21 1.02 55% 14% 47% -2 -1 0.96 31% 1.1 .34 21% .35 90% .32
Dec
29		 Murray St. C D D+ C- D- 58% 31% 11% C+ D B- A+ A+ D+ C- D+ C- B- F A+ F F 31% 21% 48% B+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ C- C C-
1.09 50% 35% 33% -6 0 0.91 36% 1.4 .51 17% .28 71% .20 1.13 88% 27% 40% +11 -1 1.23 23% 0.7 .16 19% .35 76% .26
Jan
1		 Valparaiso D F D C F+ 44% 20% 36% B- D- F+ A+ C A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ B A+ A+ 38% 29% 34% D A+ B- A+ A+ D+ F F F
1.00 45% 30% 33% -8 0 0.88 23% 1.2 .28 12% .64 60% .38 0.94 43% 31% 21% -14 -1 0.71 30% 0.6 .17 13% .45 83% .37
Jan
4		 Belmont D+ D A+ C+ B 28% 32% 40% F+ B- B+ F C- F C- F D- A+ D+ F A+ B- 61% 14% 25% D- C+ B- A+ A A F+ A+ B-
0.98 50% 50% 35% +2 -2 1.02 38% 0.8 .30 26% .25 62% .16 0.97 67% 67% 27% +7 +3 1.20 26% 0.9 .22 23% .37 50% .19
Jan
7		 Illinois-Chicago F+ D+ A+ D- B+ 41% 25% 33% D+ B F F F D- F F F C+ A A A+ A+ 51% 15% 34% F A D- F F F+ F A D+
0.88 52% 62% 29% +1 0 1.04 17% 0.6 .10 23% .08 50% .04 1.08 46% 29% 25% -12 +2 0.81 41% 1.3 .54 14% .40 64% .25
Jan
14		 Drake F B D+ F F 32% 31% 37% D F C F D A B D C+ A- D F A+ A+ 27% 19% 54% C A+ B+ F D- B+ F C- F+
0.92 65% 32% 13% -11 -2 0.76 30% 0.7 .20 10% .34 67% .22 0.96 64% 50% 18% -9 -1 0.83 22% 1.7 .37 18% .38 72% .28
Jan
17		 Belmont D- D F D+ D- 36% 20% 44% C+ D- D C D C+ A A+ A+ A- F+ A A+ A+ 40% 19% 40% B+ A+ D- A- C F F C F+
0.98 50% 20% 32% -8 0 0.86 26% 1.0 .26 17% .35 85% .30 1.05 71% 30% 19% -5 0 0.92 33% 1.1 .35 13% .38 70% .27
Jan
21		 Valparaiso D+ B+ F F F+ 51% 22% 27% B- D- C- D+ C- C A+ F A+ C+ F+ A F F 31% 31% 38% C F A+ F A C+ F B F
0.99 67% 11% 18% -8 +1 0.88 31% 0.8 .26 17% .57 60% .34 1.08 67% 25% 47% +6 -2 1.10 15% 1.5 .22 16% .56 67% .37
Jan
28		 Northern Iowa C- D+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 39% 31% F A C- F F B+ A F D+ A+ B+ A- A+ A+ 51% 13% 36% D- A A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A C+
0.99 53% 53% 40% +7 -3 1.10 24% 0.4 .09 15% .34 47% .16 0.76 52% 33% 25% -8 +2 0.89 10% 0.7 .06 26% .27 62% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Illinois-Chicago D+ D C- A+ B 47% 26% 28% C- B- F F F A A C- A B- C+ A A+ A+ 47% 16% 37% D- A F C+ F A+ F F F
1.00 50% 33% 46% 0 0 1.02 16% 0.4 .06 15% .39 73% .29 1.03 55% 29% 19% -11 +1 0.81 49% 1.0 .49 26% .53 81% .43
Feb
3		 Illinois St. F B+ A- F C- 38% 40% 22% D- D+ D F F F C- B C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 28% 37% 35% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+
0.79 65% 44% 10% -3 -3 0.91 21% 0.3 .06 22% .28 73% .21 0.74 47% 25% 26% -12 -3 0.72 19% 0.9 .17 18% .18 60% .11
Feb
6		 Murray St. C- A C- F C+ 34% 34% 32% F+ C- D D- D- A+ B+ B+ A- F+ F+ F F F 45% 10% 45% F+ F A+ A+ A+ A F C- F
1.11 68% 37% 28% 0 -2 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 10% .35 78% .27 1.24 68% 80% 50% +20 +2 1.45 21% 0.6 .13 21% .45 77% .34
Feb
9		 Indiana St. C B B C B+ 46% 29% 25% C- B B- F F+ D+ D D+ D- A+ B+ C- A+ A+ 49% 10% 41% C- A+ B F F+ A- C C+ C
1.07 63% 47% 33% +5 -1 1.10 35% 0.6 .20 16% .21 69% .14 0.87 54% 40% 20% -10 +2 0.86 22% 1.6 .35 23% .26 67% .17
Feb
12		 Evansville B+ A+ F C+ B- 42% 13% 45% A- B A B- A C+ F A D- A- D+ F+ B- C- 21% 25% 55% B- C C- A+ A- B+ A+ D A+
1.26 74% 29% 36% +7 +1 1.18 43% 1.1 .47 16% .19 82% .16 0.88 64% 46% 31% +1 -2 1.00 23% 0.6 .14 22% .08 75% .06
Feb
15		 Bradley F C A+ F F 35% 41% 24% D- F D- F F A C- A+ B B D B+ B+ B 37% 24% 39% C B- A- D+ B F+ A+ A+ A+
0.87 58% 50% 0% -7 -3 0.81 24% 0.4 .11 14% .32 84% .27 1.01 64% 29% 30% -2 0 0.97 21% 1.1 .24 10% .14 56% .08
Feb
18		 Drake F D- F B+ F 35% 24% 42% C F C+ F F+ D C- F D A+ C A- A+ A 32% 23% 45% C+ A C A B A A A+ A+
0.93 53% 8% 39% -6 -1 0.89 31% 0.5 .17 17% .29 59% .17 0.86 59% 33% 25% -7 -1 0.87 26% 0.9 .23 20% .23 46% .11
Feb
21		 Northern Iowa C B+ B- A- A+ 38% 27% 36% D+ A A C B+ F F F F A B- C- A B+ 36% 31% 33% A+ A- F C F A+ B+ F B-
0.96 65% 42% 38% +5 -1 1.11 35% 0.9 .31 29% .07 33% .02 0.93 56% 43% 27% -3 -2 0.93 31% 1.1 .34 23% .19 78% .15
Feb
25		 Indiana St. F A F F F 46% 25% 30% C+ F F D+ F+ A- C A+ B+ A+ B- A+ A A+ 29% 18% 53% A+ A+ B- D+ C A+ B- A+ A-
0.93 69% 21% 12% -9 0 0.84 23% 0.9 .21 11% .26 88% .22 0.78 57% 22% 27% -9 0 0.84 23% 1.1 .26 25% .23 50% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 25.6 25.6 7th
8th 22.5 51.8 74.4 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 22.5 77.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 77.5% 4.5% 4.5% 12.6 1.3 2.2 0.1 74.0
9-11 22.5% 3.4% 3.4% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 21.8
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 12.8 95.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.5% 100.0% 12.6 36.9 61.2 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.9%
Lose Out 7.8%