Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#142
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#229
Pace69.6#185
Improvement-0.5#218

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#145
First Shot-0.2#181
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#140
Layup/Dunks+4.8#42
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-13.3#365
Freethrows+1.6#93
Improvement-1.6#319

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#154
First Shot+1.3#130
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#248
Layups/Dunks+7.0#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#307
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#329
Freethrows+1.1#114
Improvement+1.1#75
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 6.3% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 14.1
.500 or above 42.6% 47.5% 24.2%
.500 or above in Conference 56.6% 59.7% 45.0%
Conference Champion 5.7% 6.3% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 3.1% 6.9%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round5.8% 6.2% 4.5%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 78.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 62 - 8
Quad 35 - 77 - 15
Quad 48 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 335 UMKC W 101-78 90%     1 - 0 +9.5 +14.9 -7.3
  Wed, Nov 12 122 @Nevada L 81-86 OT 32%     1 - 1 +0.8 +2.4 -1.0
  Mon, Nov 17 155 @North Dakota St. L 85-92 43%     1 - 2 -4.2 +6.4 -10.0
  Sun, Nov 23 241 Delaware W 79-59 70%     2 - 2 +15.4 +5.6 +10.3
  Mon, Nov 24 107 UAB L 73-81 37%     2 - 3 -3.7 +1.5 -5.2
  Wed, Nov 26 70 @Memphis L 58-74 17%     2 - 4 -5.1 -8.3 +3.2
  Sat, Nov 29 248 Arkansas Little Rock W 75-66 79%    
  Wed, Dec 3 86 @High Point L 73-82 21%    
  Wed, Dec 10 263 Tennessee Martin W 75-66 81%    
  Sat, Dec 13 115 @Richmond L 71-76 32%    
  Thu, Dec 18 102 Illinois St. L 72-73 47%    
  Sun, Dec 21 112 @Bradley L 70-75 31%    
  Mon, Dec 29 118 @Murray St. L 78-83 32%    
  Thu, Jan 1 268 Valparaiso W 75-65 81%    
  Sun, Jan 4 94 @Belmont L 71-79 24%    
  Wed, Jan 7 174 @Illinois-Chicago L 75-76 46%    
  Wed, Jan 14 143 Drake W 69-66 61%    
  Sat, Jan 17 94 Belmont L 74-76 44%    
  Wed, Jan 21 268 @Valparaiso W 72-68 63%    
  Sun, Jan 25 291 @Evansville W 73-68 68%    
  Wed, Jan 28 90 Northern Iowa L 66-68 43%    
  Sat, Jan 31 174 Illinois-Chicago W 78-73 68%    
  Tue, Feb 3 102 @Illinois St. L 69-76 27%    
  Fri, Feb 6 118 Murray St. W 81-80 54%    
  Mon, Feb 9 166 @Indiana St. L 76-77 46%    
  Thu, Feb 12 291 Evansville W 76-65 84%    
  Sun, Feb 15 112 Bradley W 73-72 52%    
  Wed, Feb 18 143 @Drake L 66-69 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 90 @Northern Iowa L 63-71 24%    
  Wed, Feb 25 166 Indiana St. W 79-74 67%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.9 1.8 0.5 0.0 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.8 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.5 4.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.7 5.4 2.3 0.2 12.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.9 5.8 2.5 0.2 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.1 5.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 12.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.5 4.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 11.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.9 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.5 0.5 0.0 5.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.6 5.9 8.3 10.5 11.8 12.7 12.2 10.5 8.3 5.8 3.8 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
17-3 95.4% 0.9    0.8 0.1 0.0
16-4 75.3% 1.5    1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 46.4% 1.8    0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 15.1% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.4% 28.6% 28.6% 11.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-3 0.9% 29.9% 29.9% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7
16-4 1.9% 24.0% 24.0% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 1.5
15-5 3.8% 17.6% 17.6% 12.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.2
14-6 5.8% 13.5% 13.5% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.0
13-7 8.3% 13.8% 13.8% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 7.2
12-8 10.5% 7.6% 7.6% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 9.7
11-9 12.2% 5.2% 5.2% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.6
10-10 12.7% 3.9% 3.9% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.2
9-11 11.8% 2.4% 2.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.5
8-12 10.5% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.3
7-13 8.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.2
6-14 5.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.8
5-15 3.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.6
4-16 2.1% 2.1
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 94.1 0.0%