Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.9 #126
Expected Predictive Rating +0.9 #151
Pace 73.0 #78
Improvement +0.3 #163

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #200 C C+ C C- D
Defense #86 C+ C+ C+ B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #73 1.17 #160 +2.8 #93
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #20 1.00 #7 +7.9 #2
Three Pointers 26% #364 0.83 #350 -10.1 #364
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #166 +0.6 #166
Freethrows 17.4 #189 67% #321 11.7 #241
Second Chance 30.4% #191 1.16 #57 0.35 #114
Turnovers 16.7% #185
Total Offense -1.3 #200

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #265 1.11 #121 +2.7 #88
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #148 0.83 #292 -1.1 #266
Three Pointers 43% #118 0.94 #95 +0.4 #161
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #115 +2.0 #115
Freethrows 15.6 #97 69% #48 10.7 #299
Second Chance 29.4% #127 1.02 #145 0.30 #133
Turnovers 17.4% #123
Total Defense +3.3 #86

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #304 -0.6% #112
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.4% #131 -3.3% #125
Possession Length 15.8 #52 17.6 #225
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #96 0.15 #89
Improvement -3.7 #350 +4.0 #14

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 5.4% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.4
.500 or above 49.1% 56.9% 30.8%
.500 or above in Conference 53.5% 62.0% 33.6%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.9% 3.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round4.9% 5.4% 3.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Home) - 70.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 73 - 8
Quad 34 - 77 - 15
Quad 49 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 346 UMKC W 101 - 78 93% +11  1 - 0 +8 +14 A+ A+ C+ -8 B+ F F
 Wed, Nov 12 85 @Nevada L 81 - 86 OT 23% +1  1 - 1 +5 +2 C- F A+ +3 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 148 @North Dakota St. L 85 - 92 43% -4  1 - 2 -3 +5 A- C D -7 F D+ C-
 Sun, Nov 23 271 Delaware W 79 - 59 79% +10  2 - 2 +14 +7 C- A+ C +7 B- C A+
 Mon, Nov 24 115 UAB L 73 - 81 43% -5  2 - 3 -4 +1 C- D A+ -6 C F C+
 Wed, Nov 26 83 @Memphis L 58 - 74 23% -11  2 - 4 -6 -7 F B+ B- +1 B D+ A-
 Sat, Nov 29 283 Arkansas Little Rock W 74 - 65 86% +1  3 - 4 -1 +3 A D- F -4 F B+ A-
 Wed, Dec 3 87 @High Point W 86 - 84 23% -3  4 - 4 +12 +10 C- A+ A +1 B+ B C+
 Wed, Dec 10 225 Tennessee Martin W 83 - 54 79% +15  5 - 4 +23 +8 A+ C D- +14 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 116 @Richmond L 84 - 93 OT 34% -2  5 - 5 -3 -4 F B F +3 D A+ C-
 Thu, Dec 18 91 Illinois St. L 68 - 75 45% +0  5 - 6 0 - 1 -4 -2 C+ A- F -1 C+ F A-
 Sun, Dec 21 114 @Bradley L 69 - 73 32% -4  5 - 7 0 - 2 +3 -2 F C B +5 B D A+
 Mon, Dec 29 89 @Murray St. L 81 - 84 23% -7  5 - 8 0 - 3 +7 +6 D+ A+ D+ +1 F A+ A-
 Thu, Jan 1 184 Valparaiso W 75 - 70 73% +5  6 - 8 1 - 3 +0 -4 D- C A+ +4 A+ A+ D
 Sun, Jan 4 79 @Belmont W 68 - 67 21% +0  7 - 8 2 - 3 +11 -1 B- C- F +12 C A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 160 @Illinois-Chicago L 57 - 70 47% -8  7 - 9 2 - 4 -10 -8 B F F -3 A- F F
 Wed, Jan 14 165 Drake W 75 - 69 70%
 Sat, Jan 17 79 Belmont L 77 - 79 41%
 Wed, Jan 21 184 @Valparaiso W 72 - 71 52%
 Sun, Jan 25 251 @Evansville W 73 - 69 65%
 Wed, Jan 28 107 Northern Iowa W 65 - 64 52%
 Sat, Jan 31 160 Illinois-Chicago W 74 - 69 68%
 Tue, Feb 3 91 @Illinois St. L 68 - 75 25%
 Fri, Feb 6 89 Murray St. L 80 - 82 44%
 Mon, Feb 9 207 @Indiana St. W 76 - 74 56%
 Thu, Feb 12 251 Evansville W 76 - 66 82%
 Sun, Feb 15 114 Bradley W 74 - 73 54%
 Wed, Feb 18 165 @Drake L 71 - 72 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 107 @Northern Iowa L 62 - 67 32%
 Wed, Feb 25 207 Indiana St. W 79 - 71 76%
Totals 15 - 15 10 - 10 +2 -1 C C+ C +3 C+ C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.2 0.7 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.1 5.2 1.5 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.8 7.5 2.4 0.1 16.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 6.4 8.8 3.0 0.2 19.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.8 7.6 2.8 0.2 17.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.4 5.1 2.0 0.1 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.6 8.8 13.3 17.1 18.2 15.3 10.7 6.2 2.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 85.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-5 46.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 16.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.6% 19.5% 19.5% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.5
14-6 2.4% 17.2% 17.2% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.0
13-7 6.2% 11.0% 11.0% 12.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.5
12-8 10.7% 9.4% 9.4% 12.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 9.7
11-9 15.3% 6.8% 6.8% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 14.3
10-10 18.2% 4.2% 4.2% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 17.4
9-11 17.1% 2.5% 2.5% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 16.7
8-12 13.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 13.1
7-13 8.8% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.7
6-14 4.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.6
5-15 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-16 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 12.9 95.1 0.0%