UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.1 #218
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 #249
Pace 65.9 #274
Improvement +1.9 #86

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #204 C C D C F
Defense #230 C- C D+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #361 1.16 #182 -6.0 #346
2 Pt. Jumpers 39% #2 0.86 #58 +9.3 #1
Three Pointers 32% #336 1.06 #129 -3.7 #301
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #190 -0.4 #189
Freethrows 19.0 #102 66% #340 12.6 #185
Second Chance 29.1% #231 1.12 #94 0.33 #155
Turnovers 18.6% #300
Total Offense -1.4 #204

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #53 1.23 #271 -4.5 #316
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #172 0.82 #278 -0.7 #226
Three Pointers 36% #311 0.94 #94 +3.8 #48
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #226 -1.3 #226
Freethrows 18.5 #247 67% #17 12.4 #185
Second Chance 32.1% #242 0.97 #92 0.31 #163
Turnovers 15.3% #260
Total Defense -1.7 #230

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -6.4% #364 0.8% #239
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.0% #86 1.7% #219
Possession Length 18.6 #307 17.5 #218
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #310 0.18 #201
Improvement +1.0 #127 +0.9 #126

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 6.7% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 27.7% 38.1% 14.6%
.500 or above in Conference 80.4% 90.2% 68.0%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.4% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four1.7% 1.4% 2.1%
First Round5.4% 6.2% 4.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Away) - 55.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 411 - 613 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 105 @Wichita St. L 58 - 75 15% -4  0 - 1 -9 -9 F A+ F -0 A F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 230 @Georgia Southern L 90 - 93 41% +1  0 - 2 -4 +3 B- B F -7 D- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 167 Lipscomb W 69 - 64 52% +4  1 - 2 +1 +1 B+ B F +1 A+ C C
 Wed, Nov 19 291 @Western Carolina L 73 - 80 55% -1  1 - 3 -11 +5 B+ F C- -17 D+ F F
 Tue, Nov 25 226 Tennessee St. L 73 - 75 63% +3  1 - 4 -9 -6 A+ F F -3 C F A-
 Sun, Nov 30 223 Appalachian St. W 67 - 55 63% +8  2 - 4 +6 -2 D- A+ F +8 B A- C
 Tue, Dec 2 288 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 77 66% +0  3 - 4 -2 +10 B- B+ C -12 F C C+
 Sat, Dec 6 24 @North Carolina St. L 63 - 75 3% -3  3 - 5 +7 +1 D- C+ C+ +6 A+ D A+
 Wed, Dec 10 84 Miami (OH) L 87 - 90 OT 26% -6  3 - 6 +1 +6 A- C B- -5 C A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 128 St. Thomas L 59 - 80 42% -13  3 - 7 -22 -13 F D+ F -10 D C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 115 @UAB L 47 - 72 18% -13  3 - 8 -18 -19 F F F -2 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 87 High Point L 69 - 87 26% -11  3 - 9 0 - 1 -14 -2 F C+ A+ -14 F D B+
 Sat, Jan 3 217 @Charleston Southern L 83 - 86 38% -6  3 - 10 0 - 2 -3 +9 F A+ C+ -12 F F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 270 Longwood W 72 - 61 72% +6  4 - 10 1 - 2 +2 +1 C D C +2 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 254 @Radford W 91 - 72 47% +9  5 - 10 2 - 2 +17 +11 A+ F C +5 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 292 @Presbyterian W 68 - 67 56%
 Sat, Jan 17 143 Winthrop L 75 - 76 46%
 Wed, Jan 21 299 @South Carolina Upstate W 73 - 71 57%
 Thu, Jan 29 362 Gardner-Webb W 83 - 67 93%
 Sat, Jan 31 143 @Winthrop L 72 - 79 25%
 Wed, Feb 4 299 South Carolina Upstate W 76 - 68 77%
 Thu, Feb 12 270 @Longwood W 74 - 73 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 292 Presbyterian W 71 - 64 76%
 Thu, Feb 19 87 @High Point L 70 - 83 12%
 Sat, Feb 21 254 Radford W 81 - 76 68%
 Thu, Feb 26 362 @Gardner-Webb W 80 - 70 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 217 Charleston Southern W 76 - 73 61%
Totals 12 - 15 9 - 7 -3 -1 C C D -2 C- C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.7 8.8 4.9 1.1 0.0 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 10.8 12.4 4.2 0.4 29.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 8.7 9.0 2.1 0.1 21.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.6 5.7 1.1 0.0 13.1 5th
6th 0.3 2.6 3.8 0.7 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.5 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 5.3 11.6 17.2 21.7 20.3 13.3 5.9 1.8 0.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 83.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1
13-3 39.4% 0.7    0.3 0.4 0.0
12-4 9.8% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 1.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.2% 22.2% 22.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-3 1.8% 16.0% 16.0% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5
12-4 5.9% 12.0% 12.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 5.2
11-5 13.3% 9.4% 9.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.2 12.0
10-6 20.3% 7.8% 7.8% 15.4 0.0 0.9 0.6 18.7
9-7 21.7% 4.7% 4.7% 15.9 0.1 0.9 20.7
8-8 17.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.7 16.5
7-9 11.6% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.3 11.3
6-10 5.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 5.2
5-11 2.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-12 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 15.3 93.9 0.0%