UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -3.9 232
Results Rating -4.8 243
Consistency 0.13 82
Pace 63.5 316
Improvement -0.6 213

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 248 C- C- C- C F
Defense C- 208 C- C+ C- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 356 C- 56% 217 -5.9 349
2 Pt. Jumpers 58% 22 B- 41% 73 +7.1 3
Three Pointers 34% 313 C+ 35% 127 -2.8 271
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.6 364 C+ +1.2 121
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 218
Second Chance C 29.6% 202 D+ 0.98 262 C- 0.29 223
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.9% 129
Other Turnovers D 8.3% 309
Turnovers C- 17.3% 214
Freethrows C+ 0.32 134 D 69% 299 C 0.22 179
Total Offense C- -2.8 248

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 39% 313 C 10.7% 159
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 320 C 5.6% 226
Three Pointers B 91% 34 B- 0.6% 100
Total F+ 45% 347 C+ 5.4% 156

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 60 C 58% 169 +2.5 269
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 253 D- 43% 340 +0.1 196
Three Pointers 39% 256 C 34% 163 -1.4 123
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 282 C +0.5 203
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 218
Second Chance C- 31.2% 222 B 0.94 53 C+ 0.29 127
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.0% 289
Other Turnovers C+ 7.6% 129
Turnovers C- 15.7% 248
Freethrows C 0.31 206 A- 68% 17 C+ 0.21 152
Total Defense C- -1.1 208

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 145 C+ 11.8% 136
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 130 C- 4.4% 198
Three Pointers D- 90% 336 C 0.9% 164
Total C 55% 164 C+ 6.3% 128

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.2 338 17.1 154
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 274 0.19 238
Consistency 0.12 170 0.10 23
Improvement -0.7 218 +0.2 175

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 251 229 201
Results Rating Rank 269 241 213
Conference Record 8 - 8 9 - 7 9 - 7
Conference Finish 4 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 5% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 4% 5% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 2% 4%
First Round4% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Charleston Southern (Home) - 67.4% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 31 - 31 - 10
Quad 411 - 612 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 93 @Wichita St. L 58 - 75 12% -4  10% 0 - 1 D+ -8 F+ -10 F A+ F C+ +1 A- F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 261 @Georgia Southern L 90 - 93 45% +1  56% 0 - 2 D+ -6 C +0 B- B+ F+ D -5 D- A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 197 Lipscomb W 69 - 64 55% +4  84% 1 - 2 C -0 D+ -3 B B F B- +3 A D D+
 Wed, Nov 19 244 @Western Carolina L 73 - 80 41% -1  21% 1 - 3 D -9 C +1 B+ F D+ F -10 C- C- F
 Tue, Nov 25 217 Tennessee St. L 73 - 75 59% +3  71% 1 - 4 D -8 F -11 A+ D- F B- +3 C+ D- A-
 Sun, Nov 30 170 Appalachian St. W 67 - 55 50% +8  95% 2 - 4 B- +8 D+ -3 D A+ F A+ +12 B B+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 298 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 77 66% +0  41% 3 - 4 C- -3 B +6 C+ B B- F+ -8 F C- B-
 Sat, Dec 6 27 @North Carolina St. L 63 - 75 3% -3  24% 3 - 5 B- +6 D+ -3 D C C A +8 A- F+ A
 Wed, Dec 10 87 Miami (OH) L 87 - 90 OT 24% -6  26% 3 - 6 C +0 C+ +3 B+ C- B C- -2 C- A F
 Sat, Dec 13 115 St. Thomas L 59 - 80 34% -13  7% 3 - 7 F -21 F -15 F+ C- F D- -6 D+ C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 112 @UAB L 47 - 72 17% -13  10% 3 - 8 F -19 F -20 F F F+ C -1 C- B+ F+
 Wed, Dec 31 94 High Point L 69 - 87 26% -11  3% 3 - 9 0 - 1 F+ -15 D -4 F+ C+ A+ F -11 F D B
 Sat, Jan 3 264 @Charleston Southern L 83 - 86 45% -6  0% 3 - 10 0 - 2 D+ -6 B- +4 F A+ C+ F -10 F F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 262 Longwood W 72 - 61 68% +6  98% 4 - 10 1 - 2 C+ +2 C +1 C D+ B+ B- +3 B- A F+
 Sat, Jan 10 230 @Radford W 91 - 72 38% +9  98% 5 - 10 2 - 2 A +18 A- +10 A+ F C A- +7 A A F
 Wed, Jan 14 271 @Presbyterian L 70 - 71 48% -6  9% 5 - 11 2 - 3 C- -4 C- -2 F C- C+ C- -3 F B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 138 Winthrop L 67 - 69 41% -6  3% 5 - 12 2 - 4 C- -4 F -10 F D- B A- +7 A- A- A+
 Wed, Jan 21 300 @South Carolina Upstate W 83 - 69 55% +6  93% 6 - 12 3 - 4 B +9 A +12 A D- B C- -2 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 362 Gardner-Webb W 69 - 50 94% +12  95% 7 - 12 4 - 4 C- -2 D -5 C F+ C B+ +6 B C- B
 Sat, Jan 31 138 @Winthrop L 71 - 84 21% -7  0% 7 - 13 4 - 5 D -9 C+ +2 C- F A F -12 F D B+
 Wed, Feb 4 300 South Carolina Upstate W 76 - 67 76% +0  46% 8 - 13 5 - 5 C- -2 C +0 A D D C- -2 C- A+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 262 @Longwood W 79 - 74 45% +0  43% 9 - 13 6 - 5 C+ +2 B +6 C B A+ D+ -4 F+ C F
 Sat, Feb 14 271 Presbyterian L 57 - 58 70% +2  79% 9 - 14 6 - 6 D -10 F -16 D- F C B+ +6 B+ D B-
 Thu, Feb 19 94 @High Point L 48 - 74 12% -13  1% 9 - 15 6 - 7 F+ -17 F -21 F F+ F+ B- +2 B B- D+
 Sat, Feb 21 230 Radford W 74 - 73 OT 61% +1  57% 10 - 15 7 - 7 D+ -6 D- -6 C- F+ A+ C+ +1 B- B+ C-
 Thu, Feb 26 362 @Gardner-Webb W 77 - 71 85% +1  53% 11 - 15 8 - 7 D -9 B- +4 C- A+ D+ F -12 D- D F
 Sat, Feb 28 264 Charleston Southern W 76 - 71 67%
Totals 12 - 15 9 - 7 -4 C- -3 F C+ F C- -1 C+ D C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- B- C+ C+ 29% 58% 34% F C- C D+ C- C- C+ D C C- C D- C C 43% 18% 39% D+ C- C- B C+ C- C A- C+
1.05 56% 41% 35% +1 -3 0.99 30% 1.0 .29 17% .32 69% .22 1.10 58% 43% 34% +1 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .29 16% .31 68% .22
Nov
4		 Wichita St. F+ F C D- D+ 13% 58% 29% F F B- A+ A+ F D+ F D C+ A+ F B- A- 45% 29% 27% B- A- F F F A+ B A A-
0.86 33% 39% 29% -5 -7 0.79 31% 1.5 .47 24% .25 62% .15 1.11 36% 50% 31% -8 -1 0.86 51% 1.3 .66 21% .28 60% .17
Nov
8		 Georgia Southern C C+ A+ F B+ 40% 37% 23% F B- D+ A+ B+ F+ C+ A B+ D B- F C+ D- 47% 14% 39% C- D- C- A+ A+ F+ F C+ F
1.12 62% 63% 25% +8 -2 1.13 31% 1.4 .45 22% .38 83% .32 1.16 52% 75% 32% +1 +1 1.07 29% 0.6 .17 11% .55 72% .39
Nov
11		 Lipscomb D+ B- A+ B A- 26% 37% 37% F B C A B F A+ F A+ B- B- F A+ A+ 42% 12% 46% C- A F A+ D D+ D B- D+
1.07 64% 50% 38% +8 -3 1.12 31% 1.2 .38 23% .48 63% .30 0.99 55% 50% 21% -9 +1 0.87 39% 0.8 .29 15% .27 73% .20
Nov
19		 Western Carolina C A B- A+ A+ 15% 43% 43% F B+ D+ F F D+ A+ F C- F D+ D- A+ C- 49% 24% 27% C- C- F A+ C- F F F F
1.13 71% 45% 50% +15 -5 1.23 25% 0.6 .16 17% .43 52% .22 1.24 59% 45% 25% -1 0 1.00 49% 0.7 .36 12% .51 79% .41
Nov
25		 Tennessee St. F C+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 43% 22% F A+ D+ F D- F A+ F A+ B- B- D- A+ B- 49% 26% 25% F+ C+ F+ C- D- A- C C- C-
0.99 62% 63% 63% +21 -3 1.38 28% 0.9 .24 31% .55 64% .36 1.02 54% 43% 23% -5 0 0.92 38% 1.1 .41 20% .29 76% .22
Nov
30		 Appalachian St. D+ A A+ F D+ 29% 29% 41% F+ D B+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ F C A+ B- 21% 30% 49% A+ B A+ D- B+ C- B A+ A
1.04 67% 50% 18% -4 -2 0.90 36% 1.3 .46 20% .52 81% .43 0.85 80% 36% 22% -5 -2 0.87 21% 1.1 .24 16% .28 47% .13
Dec
2		 UNC Greensboro B D- A+ A+ B 35% 35% 31% F+ C+ D+ A+ B B- A+ C A F+ F D+ F F 31% 22% 47% C F C+ F+ C- B- D+ D+ D+
1.26 53% 53% 47% +9 -2 1.16 28% 1.5 .41 12% .37 71% .26 1.19 79% 40% 43% +13 -1 1.27 25% 1.2 .29 17% .39 71% .28
Dec
6		 North Carolina St. D+ F D A C+ 13% 46% 42% F D C- B+ C C C+ A B A F+ B- A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% D A- B- F F+ A B+ D B
0.93 33% 32% 40% -2 -5 0.88 24% 1.1 .26 21% .32 76% .24 1.11 71% 33% 20% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.7 .47 18% .27 80% .22
Dec
10		 Miami (OH) C+ B B+ A+ A 29% 34% 36% F B+ F A+ C- B B+ B- B+ C- F+ C D C- 36% 22% 41% B C- A+ D A F C C C
1.12 65% 45% 43% +9 -2 1.16 10% 2.3 .24 15% .33 77% .26 1.15 71% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 12% 1.3 .15 6% .33 75% .25
Dec
13		 St. Thomas F C- D+ F D- 40% 32% 28% F F+ C D+ C- F C- F D- D- C+ A+ F C- 57% 10% 33% D- D+ F A+ C- D+ F A+ D+
0.88 58% 33% 23% -6 -1 0.87 29% 1.1 .32 24% .26 62% .16 1.20 62% 20% 47% +7 +3 1.22 30% 0.7 .21 13% .42 54% .22
Dec
21		 UAB F F A- F D+ 18% 55% 27% F F D- F F F+ F+ F+ F+ C C+ A+ C- C 62% 15% 23% F C- C A+ B+ F+ C B C+
0.73 44% 44% 23% -3 -6 0.84 19% 0.0 .00 20% .18 67% .12 1.12 56% 25% 33% -3 +2 1.00 32% 0.8 .24 8% .30 67% .20
Dec
31		 High Point D A+ F F D 32% 38% 30% F F+ F+ A+ C+ A+ A F B F F A+ F F 40% 19% 42% B F A+ F D B F B- F
1.03 81% 26% 20% -3 -3 0.90 24% 1.5 .36 12% .41 63% .25 1.30 82% 25% 50% +17 0 1.37 19% 2.3 .43 16% .47 73% .34
Jan
3		 Charleston Southern B- F C F F 42% 32% 26% D+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C- A+ F F F F+ F 53% 9% 38% F+ F F D F A- F A+ F
1.15 33% 38% 23% -15 -1 0.70 44% 1.3 .58 11% .61 69% .42 1.19 72% 50% 39% +11 +3 1.30 42% 1.0 .42 22% .52 52% .27
Jan
7		 Longwood C C D A+ B- 35% 26% 39% F+ C A+ F D+ B+ B F C B- C- A+ B B 42% 17% 42% D- B- A A- A F+ D- A C
1.13 63% 33% 44% +6 -1 1.13 44% 0.5 .22 16% .39 62% .24 0.96 60% 13% 30% -6 +1 0.92 26% 0.8 .20 16% .37 65% .24
Jan
10		 Radford A- A+ C+ A+ A+ 29% 29% 41% F A+ D F F C A+ F A A- F+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 8% 46% F A A A A F F C+ F
1.24 80% 40% 52% +18 -2 1.35 28% 0.7 .19 18% .48 62% .30 0.98 67% 25% 13% -12 +2 0.83 21% 0.8 .17 10% .48 72% .35
Jan
14		 Presbyterian C- F F A+ F+ 34% 40% 26% F F C+ D- C- C+ A+ A+ A+ C- A- F F F 53% 28% 19% D+ F B A- B+ C+ F A+ D
1.07 44% 21% 50% -6 -3 0.85 32% 0.9 .29 15% .43 83% .36 1.08 48% 58% 63% +8 0 1.19 29% 0.9 .25 20% .51 52% .27
Jan
17		 Winthrop F F A F F 23% 35% 42% F F C+ F D- B A C- A- A- A+ F D+ A 43% 2% 54% F A- C+ A A- A+ F F+ F
0.96 42% 50% 18% -10 -3 0.77 30% 0.8 .23 14% .42 72% .30 0.98 25% 100% 36% -11 +3 0.85 32% 0.8 .27 21% .54 80% .44
Jan
21		 South Carolina Upstate A C+ F+ A+ A+ 45% 29% 27% D- A D+ F+ D- B A A- A+ C- B+ F D D- 52% 12% 37% F F+ C+ A+ A+ F B- A+ A-
1.24 59% 29% 62% +9 -1 1.18 28% 1.0 .28 13% .38 77% .29 1.03 48% 83% 37% +2 +2 1.10 27% 0.4 .11 12% .26 53% .14
Jan
29		 Gardner-Webb D A- F A+ C+ 26% 24% 50% F C C+ F F+ C A+ F B+ B+ B+ F A+ A 53% 6% 40% F B C- C- C- B A+ A+ A+
1.16 73% 10% 48% +7 -1 1.14 37% 0.8 .29 15% .41 62% .26 0.84 48% 67% 21% -11 +3 0.85 24% 1.0 .24 22% .15 57% .09
Jan
31		 Winthrop C+ B- A+ F C+ 28% 32% 40% F C- C- F F A A A+ A+ F B+ F F F 33% 4% 62% D+ F D C- D B+ F F F
1.09 62% 53% 26% +1 -2 1.00 27% 0.7 .18 12% .42 83% .35 1.30 47% 50% 43% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.1 .41 19% .53 89% .47
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 South Carolina Upstate C A+ C B A+ 32% 23% 45% D- A D C- D D B F C C- D- B+ B D+ 40% 24% 36% C+ C- B- A+ A+ F C B+ C+
1.13 80% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.19 25% 1.1 .29 18% .34 63% .22 0.99 64% 31% 30% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.3 .08 13% .29 65% .19
Feb
12		 Longwood B D- B A+ B- 37% 33% 31% F C B B- B A+ C- B+ C+ D+ F B- D+ F 35% 18% 47% D+ F+ F A C F F+ A+ C+
1.17 56% 44% 47% +7 -2 1.12 34% 1.0 .34 12% .34 75% .25 1.10 71% 33% 35% +4 0 1.10 41% 0.8 .31 15% .38 59% .23
Feb
14		 Presbyterian F F+ A+ F D- 46% 30% 24% D- D- D F F C F C- F B+ A+ F A+ B+ 42% 31% 27% B- B+ B- F D B- A A+ A+
0.90 48% 53% 25% -3 -1 0.94 26% 0.4 .12 16% .17 67% .11 0.92 42% 50% 25% -7 -1 0.87 29% 1.3 .38 21% .24 58% .14
Feb
19		 High Point F F F F F 30% 26% 43% F F B- F F+ F+ D F F B- B- F A+ A- 53% 2% 45% F B F A+ B- D+ B D+ B-
0.75 43% 25% 25% -14 -1 0.72 36% 0.7 .24 25% .27 54% .14 1.15 56% 100% 26% -5 +3 0.98 42% 0.8 .33 12% .32 78% .25
Feb
21		 Radford D- C B+ C- C 43% 36% 21% F C- D- F+ F+ A+ F F F C+ A+ A- F B- 38% 25% 37% B B- D+ A+ B+ C- F A+ F+
1.04 58% 45% 33% +2 -2 1.04 26% 0.9 .24 11% .22 50% .11 1.03 35% 31% 47% -3 -1 0.94 32% 0.7 .22 17% .51 63% .32
Feb
26		 Gardner-Webb B- C- A+ B- C- 36% 19% 45% D+ C- A A+ A+ D+ A+ F A F C- F B- D 49% 4% 47% F D- B+ F D F D- D D-
1.24 60% 50% 37% +5 0 1.12 45% 1.3 .61 16% .46 63% .29 1.15 58% 50% 30% -2 +3 1.04 17% 1.6 .28 10% .32 72% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 36.2 36.2 3rd
4th 32.6 31.2 63.8 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 32.6 67.4 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 67.4% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.6 3.0 63.9
8-8 32.6% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4 31.2
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 15.9 95.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.5% 100.0% 15.8 15.6 84.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 28.2%
Lose Out 14.6%