Utah
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.8 #113
Expected Predictive Rating +2.4 #129
Pace 71.0 #124
Improvement +2.2 #70

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #89 B C B+ B B
Defense #173 C C D+ B D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #41 1.20 #119 +4.6 #46
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #227 0.73 #210 -1.2 #236
Three Pointers 37% #257 1.15 #28 +0.7 #151
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #67 +4.1 #67
Freethrows 19.1 #99 76% #73 14.5 #70
Second Chance 30.9% #173 0.99 #251 0.31 #205
Turnovers 14.5% #60
Total Offense +4.0 #89

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #49 1.17 #188 -3.2 #285
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #173 0.74 #161 +0.1 #178
Three Pointers 36% #314 0.97 #124 +3.4 #58
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #170 +0.3 #170
Freethrows 15.9 #112 69% #50 11.0 #289
Second Chance 30.2% #162 1.06 #217 0.32 #182
Turnovers 15.1% #269
Total Defense -0.2 #173

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #78 0.8% #242
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.2% #82 -1.3% #158
Possession Length 16.9 #136 16.7 #89
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #92 0.16 #124
Improvement +1.5 #97 +0.7 #140

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 10.4 10.0 10.8
.500 or above 2.2% 7.7% 1.8%
.500 or above in Conference 0.6% 2.7% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 59.0% 36.6% 60.7%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 7.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 12
Quad 23 - 64 - 18
Quad 32 - 16 - 19
Quad 45 - 112 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 227 San Jose St. W 84 - 75 83% +5  1 - 0 +2 +6 B D- A+ -4 C- A- C-
 Sat, Nov 8 197 Weber St. W 92 - 89 OT 80% -3  2 - 0 -2 -1 F B+ C+ -2 A F C+
 Mon, Nov 10 310 Holy Cross W 87 - 69 92% +9  3 - 0 +6 +10 B- C- A+ -4 C C+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 141 Sam Houston St. W 85 - 79 71% +9  4 - 0 +4 +6 B+ D F -2 B A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 237 Purdue Fort Wayne W 85 - 77 85% +9  5 - 0 +1 +13 A+ F A -12 D- D C
 Thu, Nov 20 249 Cal Poly L 85 - 92 86% -7  5 - 1 -15 -5 C+ F F -9 F C- B
 Tue, Nov 25 90 Grand Canyon L 58 - 68 41% -6  5 - 2 -4 -6 C C+ D- +2 A+ A F
 Wed, Nov 26 65 Mississippi W 75 - 74 32% +3  6 - 2 +10 +12 A+ F D+ -3 D- F A
 Tue, Dec 2 81 @California L 72 - 79 28% -1  6 - 3 +3 +6 B- C A- -3 C D+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 157 California Baptist W 91 - 85 74% +4  7 - 3 +3 +17 B A A- -14 C F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 66 Mississippi St. L 74 - 82 33% +6  7 - 4 +0 +6 A+ F F -5 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 255 Eastern Washington W 101 - 77 87% +11  8 - 4 +16 +21 A+ A- A+ -6 A- C F
 Mon, Dec 29 46 @Washington L 65 - 74 16% -3  8 - 5 +5 -0 D A- C- +5 C A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 2 Arizona L 78 - 97 6% -15  8 - 6 0 - 1 +2 +10 B A- B+ -6 B- D+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 73 @Colorado L 73 - 85 25% -6  8 - 7 0 - 2 -1 +4 F B A+ -5 B- C C+
 Sat, Jan 10 11 BYU L 84 - 89 11% -4  8 - 8 0 - 3 +12 +15 A+ B A+ -2 A C- C+
 Wed, Jan 14 21 @Texas Tech L 70 - 86 7%
 Sat, Jan 17 45 TCU L 73 - 78 32%
 Tue, Jan 20 74 @Kansas St. L 80 - 87 26%
 Sat, Jan 24 11 @BYU L 71 - 90 4%
 Sat, Jan 31 62 Oklahoma St. L 84 - 86 42%
 Wed, Feb 4 82 Arizona St. L 80 - 81 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 18 @Kansas L 69 - 85 7%
 Tue, Feb 10 5 Houston L 64 - 78 9%
 Sun, Feb 15 56 @Cincinnati L 69 - 78 20%
 Wed, Feb 18 59 @West Virginia L 68 - 76 22%
 Sat, Feb 21 50 Central Florida L 79 - 83 36%
 Tue, Feb 24 6 Iowa St. L 70 - 84 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 82 @Arizona St. L 78 - 84 29%
 Tue, Mar 3 73 Colorado L 80 - 81 46%
 Sat, Mar 7 37 @Baylor L 74 - 87 12%
Totals 12 - 19 4 - 14 +4 +4 B C B+ +0 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.2 2.4 10th
11th 0.3 2.5 1.0 0.0 3.8 11th
12th 0.1 2.1 3.0 0.2 5.4 12th
13th 0.0 1.8 5.4 1.7 0.0 9.0 13th
14th 0.1 1.4 6.9 4.8 0.3 13.4 14th
15th 0.2 2.5 8.6 8.2 1.4 0.0 20.9 15th
16th 2.7 9.5 15.3 11.7 2.8 0.1 42.2 16th
Total 2.7 9.7 17.9 21.6 19.9 14.0 8.1 3.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-9 0.4% 4.5% 4.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.5%
8-10 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.0%
7-11 3.9% 3.9
6-12 8.1% 8.1
5-13 14.0% 14.0
4-14 19.9% 19.9
3-15 21.6% 21.6
2-16 17.9% 17.9
1-17 9.7% 9.7
0-18 2.7% 2.7
Total 100% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 10.4 99.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.7%