Utah
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#125
Expected Predictive Rating+4.0#116
Pace70.9#150
Improvement-1.1#265

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#109
First Shot+3.1#86
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#209
Layup/Dunks+3.2#75
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#116
Freethrows+0.7#133
Improvement-1.3#299

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#159
First Shot-2.5#259
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#35
Layups/Dunks-6.9#354
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#140
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#105
Freethrows+1.6#93
Improvement+0.2#178
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 2.4% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 2.4% 0.7%
Average Seed 9.6 9.4 9.8
.500 or above 10.1% 21.7% 7.1%
.500 or above in Conference 2.3% 3.9% 1.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 51.3% 41.7% 53.9%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.8% 2.0% 0.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 20.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 12
Quad 23 - 55 - 17
Quad 32 - 27 - 18
Quad 45 - 112 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 187 San Jose St. W 84-75 76%     1 - 0 +4.2 +8.3 -4.1
  Sat, Nov 8 229 Weber St. W 92-89 OT 82%     2 - 0 -4.0 -1.8 -2.8
  Mon, Nov 10 330 Holy Cross W 87-69 92%     3 - 0 +5.3 +8.6 -3.1
  Sat, Nov 15 170 Sam Houston St. W 85-79 75%     4 - 0 +1.8 +4.8 -3.3
  Tue, Nov 18 236 Purdue Fort Wayne W 85-77 83%     5 - 0 +0.6 +11.7 -10.6
  Thu, Nov 20 245 Cal Poly L 85-92 84%     5 - 1 -14.8 -4.9 -8.7
  Tue, Nov 25 98 Grand Canyon L 58-68 40%     5 - 2 -4.8 -7.9 +2.8
  Wed, Nov 26 49 Mississippi W 75-74 23%     6 - 2 +11.4 +11.3 +0.2
  Tue, Dec 2 67 @California L 72-81 21%    
  Sat, Dec 6 136 California Baptist W 74-70 65%    
  Sat, Dec 13 84 Mississippi St. L 75-79 35%    
  Sat, Dec 20 240 Eastern Washington W 83-73 83%    
  Mon, Dec 29 48 @Washington L 70-81 16%    
  Sat, Jan 3 11 Arizona L 72-85 12%    
  Wed, Jan 7 72 @Colorado L 74-82 23%    
  Sat, Jan 10 7 BYU L 70-84 10%    
  Wed, Jan 14 24 @Texas Tech L 68-83 9%    
  Sat, Jan 17 51 TCU L 72-77 34%    
  Tue, Jan 20 54 @Kansas St. L 78-88 19%    
  Sat, Jan 24 7 @BYU L 67-87 4%    
  Sat, Jan 31 46 Oklahoma St. L 81-86 32%    
  Wed, Feb 4 83 Arizona St. L 78-79 45%    
  Sat, Feb 7 18 @Kansas L 66-83 7%    
  Tue, Feb 10 5 Houston L 62-76 11%    
  Sun, Feb 15 65 @Cincinnati L 70-79 22%    
  Wed, Feb 18 71 @West Virginia L 66-74 23%    
  Sat, Feb 21 68 Central Florida L 81-83 42%    
  Tue, Feb 24 4 Iowa St. L 69-83 11%    
  Sat, Feb 28 83 @Arizona St. L 75-82 26%    
  Tue, Mar 3 72 Colorado L 77-79 43%    
  Sat, Mar 7 28 @Baylor L 72-86 10%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.9 0.9 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.2 2.4 2.0 0.2 4.8 11th
12th 0.1 1.9 3.8 0.9 0.0 6.7 12th
13th 0.1 1.6 4.6 2.4 0.1 8.9 13th
14th 0.1 1.7 6.2 4.9 0.6 0.0 13.5 14th
15th 0.5 3.0 8.1 7.9 1.6 0.1 21.2 15th
16th 3.5 9.7 12.5 8.5 2.2 0.1 36.6 16th
Total 3.5 10.2 15.7 18.4 18.0 13.3 9.8 5.8 3.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 80.6% 80.6% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.6%
10-8 0.6% 46.9% 46.9% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 46.9%
9-9 1.3% 20.7% 20.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 20.7%
8-10 3.2% 4.6% 4.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0 4.6%
7-11 5.8% 0.3% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 5.8 0.3%
6-12 9.8% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 9.7 0.1%
5-13 13.3% 13.3
4-14 18.0% 18.0
3-15 18.4% 18.4
2-16 15.7% 15.7
1-17 10.2% 10.2
0-18 3.5% 3.5
Total 100% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 99.0 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%