Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +0.5 150
Results Rating +2.5 121
Consistency 0.15 141
Pace 64.3 294
Improvement +4.2 37

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws
Shot Selection
Offense C 173 D+ C+ B- B- F+
Defense C+ 140 C+ C+ C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 331 C- 57% 207 -4.2 324
2 Pt. Jumpers 48% 68 D 34% 311 +2.6 52
Three Pointers 37% 267 C 34% 164 -1.9 250
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.8 345 C- -1.7 235
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 289
Second Chance C+ 31.8% 143 C+ 1.07 112 C+ 0.34 109
Opponents' Steals A- 7.1% 13
Other Turnovers D+ 8.1% 280
Turnovers B- 15.2% 84
Freethrows B 0.35 47 D+ 70% 251 B- 0.25 91
Total Offense C -0.5 173

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 201 C 11.0% 182
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 274 C- 5.8% 239
Three Pointers D+ 79% 292 B- 0.5% 74
Total D 50% 309 C 5.5% 182

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 134 D+ 61% 270 +2.3 262
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 117 A 30% 6 -1.1 103
Three Pointers 37% 279 C+ 33% 139 -2.3 83
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 152 C+ -0.9 143
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 143
Second Chance C- 31.7% 245 B+ 0.91 31 C+ 0.29 108
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.6% 249
Other Turnovers B+ 8.8% 33
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 137
Freethrows C 0.31 200 B- 71% 88 C 0.22 176
Total Defense C+ +1.0 140

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 62 C 10.9% 173
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 80 B 7.7% 50
Three Pointers C- 85% 211 D 0.2% 328
Total B- 51% 86 C+ 6.2% 134

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 288 17.7 258
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 359 0.14 74
Consistency 0.11 98 0.11 71
Improvement +4.7 14 -0.4 211

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile
Expected
50th Percentile
Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 166 149 133
Results Rating Rank 149 126 111
Conference Record 11 - 9 12 - 8 12 - 8
Conference Finish 6 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 4% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round4% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 70.4% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 71 - 10
Quad 37 - 28 - 13
Quad 49 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 317 Eastern Illinois W 66 - 63 89% +5  87% 1 - 0 D -10 F -12 F C- C- B- +2 D A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 23 @Kentucky L 59 - 107 5% -31  0% 1 - 1 F -29 F -11 F D+ A- F -15 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 253 Nicholls St. W 68 - 63 79% +3  85% 2 - 1 C- -3 D+ -4 D- F+ A+ C+ +2 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 16 354 Bryant W 68 - 50 94% +4  70% 3 - 1 C +0 F+ -8 F C+ B A +11 A+ D C-
 Wed, Nov 19 316 @Cleveland St. W 90 - 75 76% +12  95% 4 - 1 B +8 B +7 C B B C+ +1 B- B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 338 Southern Indiana L 56 - 64 91% -6  3% 4 - 2 F -23 F -24 F D+ B+ C+ +1 D+ D- A-
 Sat, Nov 29 272 Western Michigan W 84 - 55 82% +14  93% 5 - 2 A +20 B+ +8 B- A+ D A+ +13 A D- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 83 @Marquette L 72 - 75 OT 18% +2  62% 5 - 3 B- +7 D -5 B- C F A+ +12 A+ A A-
 Sat, Dec 13 107 UNC Wilmington L 70 - 73 48% +2  49% 5 - 4 C- -2 C+ +2 F A A D+ -4 B+ F C
 Tue, Dec 16 65 @Northwestern L 70 - 86 15% -12  0% 5 - 5 C- -4 C +1 C+ B+ F+ D -6 F+ C- D
 Sun, Dec 21 121 Murray St. L 79 - 85 53% +2  62% 5 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 C- -1 C C+ C+ D+ -5 F A+ C-
 Mon, Dec 29 95 @Northern Iowa L 48 - 58 21% -3  10% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C -1 F+ -9 F F A B+ +6 B C B+
 Thu, Jan 1 124 @Southern Illinois L 70 - 75 30% -5  20% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C +1 C- -2 F F+ A+ B- +3 A- C F
 Sun, Jan 4 106 Illinois-Chicago W 66 - 59 48% -1  38% 6 - 8 1 - 3 B- +8 C +1 D D+ B+ A- +8 B B- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 98 Illinois St. W 77 - 71 44% +5  76% 7 - 8 2 - 3 B- +8 A- +10 A+ F C- C- -2 A- D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 121 @Murray St. L 79 - 92 30% -6  15% 7 - 9 2 - 4 D+ -7 C- -1 B- D+ F D -5 F A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 13 62 @Belmont L 74 - 78 14% -3  10% 7 - 10 2 - 5 B- +8 B+ +7 D+ A+ C+ C+ +0 D+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 95 Northern Iowa W 54 - 44 41% +2  65% 8 - 10 3 - 5 B+ +13 D -6 F B A+ A+ +21 A+ B+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 124 Southern Illinois W 69 - 63 53% +11  85% 9 - 10 4 - 5 B- +6 B +6 A- D A- C+ +1 A- C+ C+
 Wed, Jan 28 62 Belmont L 77 - 78 30% -2  31% 9 - 11 4 - 6 B- +5 B- +4 B+ F A C+ +1 D+ D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 213 @Indiana St. W 76 - 72 OT 52% -3  13% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C+ +4 C -0 F+ C+ B B +4 C A- D+
 Tue, Feb 3 114 @Bradley L 65 - 72 29% -5  10% 10 - 12 5 - 7 C -1 D+ -3 D A C+ C+ +1 D A B+
 Fri, Feb 6 297 Evansville W 70 - 63 OT 86% +1  68% 11 - 12 6 - 7 C- -4 F+ -9 F A+ F+ B +5 C A C
 Mon, Feb 9 189 @Drake W 81 - 76 48% -0  32% 12 - 12 7 - 7 B- +6 B+ +9 B- A+ D+ C- -2 A F F
 Thu, Feb 12 98 @Illinois St. L 64 - 86 24% -4  33% 12 - 13 7 - 8 D- -14 D -5 F A A F -10 F+ C+ D
 Sun, Feb 15 213 Indiana St. W 76 - 75 73% +3  79% 13 - 13 8 - 8 D+ -5 B+ +9 A A C F -14 D F F
 Wed, Feb 18 114 Bradley W 79 - 72 51% +5  89% 14 - 13 9 - 8 B- +7 B+ +8 B A- A+ C -0 D- B- A+
 Sat, Feb 21 106 @Illinois-Chicago W 71 - 67 27% +6  87% 15 - 13 10 - 8 B +11 B +7 C- C A+ B +4 B D+ C+
 Wed, Feb 25 189 Drake W 74 - 71 70% -3  14% 16 - 13 11 - 8 C- -2 C+ +2 B- B- D D+ -4 D D- B+
 Sat, Feb 28 297 @Evansville W 72 - 66 70%
Totals 17 - 13 12 - 8 +1 C -1 C- C- F+ C+ +1 C D+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- D C C- 32% 48% 37% F+ D+ C+ C+ C+ B- B D+ B- C+ D+ A C+ C+ 40% 22% 37% C C+ C- B+ C+ C+ C B- C
1.08 57% 34% 34% -2 -2 0.95 32% 1.1 .34 15% .35 70% .25 1.07 61% 30% 33% -1 0 1.00 32% 0.9 .29 17% .31 71% .25
Nov
4
Eastern Illinois F C- F F F 27% 9% 64% C F C C C- C- A+ F A+ B- F C+ B+ F 34% 47% 18% A+ D D- A+ A+ A+ F D- F
0.94 58% 0% 18% -19 +1 0.66 34% 1.1 .36 20% .62 60% .37 0.90 69% 33% 29% 0 -4 0.95 31% 0.3 .09 29% .62 81% .50
Nov
7
Kentucky F B F F F 17% 24% 59% D F C- D- D+ A- B- F C F F B- F F 47% 10% 43% F F B A+ A+ F D F F
0.79 60% 14% 24% -15 -2 0.69 24% 0.7 .16 13% .31 65% .20 1.43 81% 33% 44% +17 +2 1.40 33% 0.5 .18 8% .38 85% .32
Nov
12
Nicholls St. D+ F D A+ D+ 27% 40% 33% F D- C- F F+ A+ A D B+ C+ C+ A D+ C- 25% 18% 57% B+ C C F F A+ C A+ B
1.08 50% 33% 47% +2 -3 1.00 33% 0.8 .27 14% .43 74% .31 1.00 55% 25% 36% -2 -1 0.98 25% 1.6 .41 24% .27 54% .15
Nov
16
Bryant F+ F D D+ F 40% 20% 40% D F D+ A- C+ B A+ F A- A B- A+ A+ A+ 34% 19% 47% B A+ F B+ D C- A F B+
1.08 39% 33% 33% -9 0 0.84 33% 1.2 .38 11% .45 64% .29 0.79 50% 0% 18% -21 0 0.60 38% 0.8 .31 21% .18 89% .16
Nov
19
Cleveland St. B A A C B- 35% 29% 36% F+ C B C B B C+ C- C+ C+ F A- A+ B 40% 14% 46% D B- A+ F B- F D- F+ F
1.30 74% 50% 35% +9 -1 1.18 42% 1.1 .45 13% .33 75% .25 1.08 70% 29% 26% -2 +1 1.00 16% 1.4 .23 13% .38 83% .32
Nov
26
Southern Indiana F F F+ F F 27% 36% 37% F F C+ F D+ B+ F F F C+ C+ A+ D+ D 27% 22% 51% B- D+ F+ D D- A- F B+ F
0.80 44% 29% 14% -19 -3 0.59 36% 0.8 .28 13% .16 60% .10 0.91 50% 20% 35% -6 -1 0.89 34% 0.9 .32 21% .45 60% .27
Nov
29
Western Michigan B+ F A A+ B 30% 24% 46% F+ B- A+ B A+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ C- A+ 42% 27% 31% C A D+ F+ D- A+ B A+ A
1.29 43% 45% 48% +6 -1 1.13 42% 1.2 .52 15% .47 88% .42 0.85 42% 17% 36% -12 -1 0.78 31% 1.2 .37 25% .24 58% .14
Dec
2
Marquette D A A+ D B+ 24% 35% 42% F B- C- C+ C F D- F F+ A+ A+ A C A+ 51% 14% 35% B- A+ C A+ A A- F F F
0.94 69% 47% 30% +4 -3 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 27% .21 67% .14 0.97 42% 29% 33% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.6 .19 18% .51 84% .43
Dec
13
UNC Wilmington C+ A F F F+ 28% 34% 38% D- F A+ C- A A A+ C+ A+ D+ C C+ A+ A 35% 20% 46% D B+ F A- F C F A+ F
1.10 71% 24% 21% -9 -2 0.80 43% 1.0 .43 9% .42 75% .31 1.15 56% 33% 24% -9 0 0.85 51% 0.9 .47 14% .61 58% .35
Dec
16
Northwestern C A- B D B+ 25% 40% 35% F C+ C A+ B+ F+ A+ C+ A+ D F F A+ F+ 43% 18% 39% D F+ D- B C- D D+ A- C+
1.02 67% 42% 29% +1 -3 0.98 31% 1.2 .38 22% .41 73% .30 1.26 71% 78% 26% +9 +1 1.20 34% 1.2 .41 10% .36 68% .24
Dec
21
Murray St. C- D+ A C+ B- 36% 40% 24% F C D+ B+ C+ C+ D F+ D- D+ D+ F F F 45% 27% 29% B F B- A+ A+ C- F F+ F
1.10 52% 48% 36% +2 -3 1.02 30% 1.2 .35 15% .25 67% .16 1.19 64% 54% 43% +10 0 1.22 30% 0.4 .12 15% .46 82% .38
Dec
29
Northern Iowa F+ F+ C+ F F 40% 21% 38% C F A F F A B- A- B B+ C+ A+ C B+ 53% 18% 30% D+ B A- F C B+ F F F
0.83 47% 40% 17% -14 0 0.74 35% 0.3 .09 14% .28 79% .22 1.01 57% 29% 33% -2 +1 1.00 15% 1.5 .23 17% .38 78% .29
Jan
1
Southern Illinois C- F F+ F F 38% 29% 34% D+ F C+ F F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A C- A 44% 20% 36% F+ A- A- F C F F A F
0.94 43% 31% 21% -14 -1 0.71 30% 0.6 .17 13% .45 83% .37 1.00 45% 30% 33% -8 0 0.88 23% 1.2 .28 12% .64 60% .38
Jan
4
Illinois-Chicago C F+ F A+ D+ 39% 34% 26% F+ D D C+ D+ B+ A+ B A+ A- F+ C- A+ B- 36% 36% 29% A+ B C+ C+ B- A+ D- A C-
1.06 47% 15% 50% -6 -2 0.87 30% 1.0 .30 18% .78 78% .61 0.95 67% 40% 17% -4 -2 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 26% .37 65% .24
Jan
7
Illinois St. A- D+ B+ A+ A+ 30% 38% 32% F+ A+ F+ F F C- A+ B+ A+ C- F+ A+ A- A- 41% 31% 27% B A- F A+ D+ D- F A+ F+
1.19 55% 43% 75% +21 -3 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 17% .65 74% .48 1.10 71% 19% 29% -3 -1 0.94 41% 0.8 .34 14% .41 61% .25
Jan
10
Murray St. C- C F A+ B- 53% 24% 24% B- B- C- C- D+ F A A+ A+ D D C+ F F 42% 15% 44% D+ F C A+ A+ D+ D+ D+ D
1.06 56% 25% 50% +1 +1 1.06 30% 1.0 .30 21% .37 82% .31 1.23 65% 38% 46% +11 +1 1.25 32% 0.6 .19 15% .36 78% .28
Jan
13
Belmont B+ A+ C- D C+ 12% 36% 52% F D+ B A+ A+ C+ C+ F F+ C+ F B+ F D 47% 17% 36% C+ D+ A A+ A+ F+ A+ F A+
1.14 83% 33% 31% -1 -4 0.92 37% 1.6 .58 17% .28 53% .15 1.20 76% 33% 42% +12 +1 1.28 20% 0.8 .16 14% .11 100% .11
Jan
17
Northern Iowa D F F F F 21% 42% 37% F F C- A+ B A+ A+ B- A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 29% 33% A+ A+ D+ A+ B+ C- A+ A+ A+
0.92 44% 28% 25% -12 -4 0.70 23% 1.3 .29 12% .39 75% .29 0.75 67% 7% 19% -13 -1 0.73 24% 0.7 .17 14% .14 29% .04
Jan
21
Southern Illinois B A- F A+ A 31% 31% 38% F+ A- F A+ D A- A+ D+ A+ C+ D- A+ A+ A 51% 22% 27% F A- C- B C+ C+ F A F
1.08 67% 25% 47% +6 -2 1.10 15% 1.5 .22 16% .56 67% .37 0.99 67% 11% 18% -8 +1 0.88 31% 0.8 .26 17% .57 60% .34
Jan
28
Belmont B- A+ F+ A- A- 28% 28% 43% D- B+ C- F F A A C+ A C+ C- B+ F D 33% 14% 53% B+ D+ C+ F D+ A- F+ B+ D
1.13 73% 27% 39% +4 -2 1.08 31% 0.6 .19 13% .35 76% .27 1.14 64% 33% 48% +12 0 1.28 27% 1.4 .38 22% .38 65% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31
Indiana St. C F A+ F F+ 51% 29% 20% C F+ B+ D+ C+ B A+ F+ A+ B F+ A+ A+ C+ 52% 8% 40% D C B A+ A- D+ F A+ D
1.07 43% 56% 18% -7 0 0.87 39% 0.9 .34 13% .42 65% .27 1.01 70% 25% 24% -1 +3 1.06 22% 0.8 .17 17% .35 57% .20
Feb
3
Bradley D+ B- C F D+ 33% 37% 31% D D C- A+ A C+ F F F C+ C F C D- 33% 29% 38% B+ D C A+ A B+ B- B+ B
1.00 63% 39% 27% -2 -2 0.94 29% 1.5 .43 18% .19 40% .08 1.10 59% 53% 35% +5 -1 1.10 27% 0.6 .17 17% .30 69% .20
Feb
6
Evansville F+ D+ F F F 23% 38% 40% F F A A+ A+ F+ C A- B- B A A+ F C 35% 25% 39% D+ C C- A+ A C A- A A
1.01 55% 22% 26% -11 -3 0.73 43% 1.6 .69 20% .27 80% .22 0.91 50% 23% 45% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.6 .13 19% .20 64% .12
Feb
9
Drake B+ F A+ A+ B- 30% 24% 46% C- B- A- A+ A+ D+ A+ D A+ C- B- D- A+ A 34% 22% 44% C A F+ F+ F F A- A- A
1.21 43% 55% 43% +5 -1 1.11 38% 1.3 .50 16% .48 67% .32 1.14 55% 46% 23% -6 -1 0.88 32% 1.3 .41 9% .23 64% .15
Feb
12
Illinois St. D D+ F D F 26% 51% 23% F F C+ A+ A A F+ B- D- F D+ F D D- 44% 10% 46% F F+ C- B C+ D C- F F
0.94 53% 21% 31% -11 -5 0.70 28% 1.4 .40 12% .23 71% .17 1.26 65% 60% 38% +8 +2 1.21 29% 1.0 .29 15% .29 100% .29
Feb
15
Indiana St. B+ A+ D A+ A+ 27% 36% 36% F A A+ C+ A C A+ F C+ F F A+ A D 55% 14% 31% C D F F F F C+ C- C
1.24 83% 38% 44% +12 -3 1.20 44% 1.0 .44 15% .40 48% .19 1.23 78% 14% 27% +4 +2 1.14 35% 1.2 .42 13% .24 69% .17
Feb
18
Bradley B+ C B A+ B 43% 32% 25% C+ B C A+ A- A+ A+ F A+ C B- A F F 27% 24% 49% B D- C A B- A+ C- B C
1.19 58% 43% 45% +6 -1 1.11 30% 1.3 .40 12% .57 61% .34 1.08 54% 25% 50% +7 -1 1.14 28% 0.9 .24 23% .33 71% .23
Feb
21
Illinois-Chicago B B F A- C 28% 34% 38% F C- C+ D+ C A+ A+ C+ A+ B C A A- B 46% 24% 30% C B C D- D+ C+ D+ A+ B-
1.11 62% 19% 39% -3 -3 0.91 37% 0.9 .34 14% .45 76% .34 1.04 57% 27% 29% -5 0 0.91 35% 1.2 .41 19% .34 61% .21
Feb
25
Drake C+ C D- A+ B+ 21% 30% 49% F+ B- C+ B B- D B- A+ A- D+ F A- C- D- 40% 25% 35% C D F+ C D- B+ B+ C+ B+
1.16 60% 29% 48% +8 -2 1.13 31% 1.0 .31 17% .32 82% .27 1.12 74% 33% 35% +6 0 1.13 32% 1.1 .36 17% .25 69% .17




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 25.0 25.0 3rd
4th 45.5 45.5 4th
5th 15.8 15.8 5th
6th 13.8 13.8 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 29.6 70.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 70.4% 3.9% 3.9% 13.1 0.4 1.7 0.6 0.0 67.6
11-9 29.6% 2.8% 2.8% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 28.8
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 13.2 96.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 100.0% 13.1 15.5 61.7 22.7 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 20.3%
Lose Out 14.6%