Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.6 #184
Expected Predictive Rating -2.2 #205
Pace 66.4 #250
Improvement +4.2 #23

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #223 D+ C B- B- F
Defense #153 C+ B- C D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #344 1.10 #254 -5.5 #341
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #30 0.71 #229 +3.0 #51
Three Pointers 39% #217 1.02 #174 -0.8 #217
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #269 -3.3 #271
Freethrows 19.8 #72 71% #226 14.2 #87
Second Chance 31.2% #166 0.99 #250 0.31 #198
Turnovers 15.5% #112
Total Offense -1.9 #223

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #156 1.22 #264 -1.9 #249
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #99 0.63 #31 +0.4 #169
Three Pointers 37% #280 0.96 #108 +3.0 #73
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #130 +1.4 #129
Freethrows 18.7 #256 75% #287 14.0 #85
Second Chance 31.9% #233 0.89 #23 0.28 #91
Turnovers 16.8% #172
Total Defense +0.3 #153

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.6% #348 -0.5% #125
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.9% #219 -2.4% #137
Possession Length 18.1 #261 17.2 #167
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 #362 0.14 #78
Improvement +3.7 #15 +0.5 #155

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.4% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 15.0
.500 or above 13.9% 22.4% 8.3%
.500 or above in Conference 16.7% 27.1% 9.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.8% 5.0% 13.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round1.1% 1.4% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Home) - 39.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 71 - 9
Quad 34 - 75 - 16
Quad 48 - 213 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 311 Eastern Illinois W 66 - 63 83% +5  1 - 0 -9 -9 F D+ D- +0 D+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 25 @Kentucky L 59 - 107 4% -31  1 - 1 -29 -8 F D- A+ -18 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 205 Nicholls St. W 68 - 63 65% +3  2 - 1 -1 -0 D- F A+ +0 B F A+
 Sun, Nov 16 329 Bryant W 68 - 50 86% +4  3 - 1 +5 -1 F C A- +8 A+ D- C+
 Wed, Nov 19 328 @Cleveland St. W 90 - 75 71% +12  4 - 1 +8 +12 B B- B -4 C B+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 343 Southern Indiana L 56 - 64 88% -6  4 - 2 -22 -22 F C B -0 C- F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 250 Western Michigan W 84 - 55 73% +14  5 - 2 +21 +12 B A+ D +11 A+ D- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 106 @Marquette L 72 - 75 OT 20% +2  5 - 3 +4 -2 B- C F +7 A A+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 118 UNC Wilmington L 70 - 73 45% +2  5 - 4 -3 +4 F A+ A+ -8 B F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 63 @Northwestern L 70 - 86 11% -12  5 - 5 -4 +3 B- B+ F -8 F C D
 Sun, Dec 21 89 Murray St. L 79 - 85 31% +2  5 - 6 0 - 1 -2 +4 B C+ C+ -6 D- A+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 107 @Northern Iowa L 48 - 58 20% -3  5 - 7 0 - 2 -3 -7 F F A +2 B- C- B+
 Thu, Jan 1 126 @Southern Illinois L 70 - 75 27% -5  5 - 8 0 - 3 -0 -3 F F A+ +3 A+ A- F
 Sun, Jan 4 160 Illinois-Chicago W 66 - 59 56% -1  6 - 8 1 - 3 +4 +1 D D B +3 C B A+
 Wed, Jan 7 91 Illinois St. W 77 - 71 32% +5  7 - 8 2 - 3 +9 +13 A+ F C -3 A C- D
 Sat, Jan 10 89 @Murray St. L 79 - 92 15% -6  7 - 9 2 - 4 -3 +3 A- C- F -6 F A+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 79 @Belmont L 74 - 78 14% -3  7 - 10 2 - 5 +6 +10 D+ A+ B- -4 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 107 Northern Iowa L 61 - 64 39%
 Wed, Jan 21 126 Southern Illinois L 71 - 72 48%
 Wed, Jan 28 79 Belmont L 73 - 79 28%
 Sat, Jan 31 207 @Indiana St. L 71 - 73 43%
 Tue, Feb 3 114 @Bradley L 68 - 76 22%
 Fri, Feb 6 251 Evansville W 72 - 65 73%
 Mon, Feb 9 165 @Drake L 67 - 71 36%
 Thu, Feb 12 91 @Illinois St. L 64 - 75 16%
 Sun, Feb 15 207 Indiana St. W 74 - 70 65%
 Wed, Feb 18 114 Bradley L 71 - 73 42%
 Sat, Feb 21 160 @Illinois-Chicago L 67 - 71 34%
 Wed, Feb 25 165 Drake W 70 - 68 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 251 @Evansville W 69 - 68 52%
Totals 13 - 17 8 - 12 -2 -2 D+ C B- +0 C+ B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.3 0.3 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.4 4.5 1.0 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 6.4 6.8 1.9 0.1 16.8 7th
8th 0.1 2.5 8.5 8.9 2.5 0.2 0.0 22.7 8th
9th 0.2 2.9 8.6 7.8 2.3 0.1 21.9 9th
10th 0.2 2.2 5.6 4.2 1.0 0.0 13.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.2 1.8 1.1 0.2 4.5 11th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.3 9.7 15.5 18.9 18.8 14.6 9.5 4.8 1.9 0.5 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 9.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 2.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 4.5% 4.5% 13.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.5% 8.8% 8.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 1.9% 3.7% 3.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
11-9 4.8% 3.2% 3.2% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.6
10-10 9.5% 2.5% 2.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.2
9-11 14.6% 1.5% 1.5% 14.8 0.0 0.2 14.4
8-12 18.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.6 0.1 0.1 18.6
7-13 18.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 18.8
6-14 15.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.4
5-15 9.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.7
4-16 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.3
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 14.6 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%