Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#268
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#203
Pace66.2#270
Improvement-0.3#204

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#289
First Shot-5.7#334
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#104
Layup/Dunks-8.0#360
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#243
Freethrows+0.2#160
Improvement-0.5#237

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#208
First Shot-0.6#184
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#232
Layups/Dunks-1.9#255
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#62
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#151
Freethrows-1.0#245
Improvement+0.2#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 8.2% 11.7% 3.7%
.500 or above in Conference 8.1% 9.9% 5.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 36.3% 32.5% 41.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 57.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 33 - 84 - 17
Quad 47 - 411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 329 Eastern Illinois W 66-63 74%     1 - 0 -9.4 -10.6 +1.2
  Fri, Nov 7 16 @Kentucky L 59-107 2%     1 - 1 -27.3 -7.9 -16.3
  Wed, Nov 12 270 Nicholls St. W 68-63 62%     2 - 1 -3.8 +0.6 -3.9
  Sun, Nov 16 302 Bryant W 68-50 69%     3 - 1 +7.2 -0.5 +9.7
  Wed, Nov 19 303 @Cleveland St. W 90-75 47%     4 - 1 +10.2 +13.4 -3.0
  Wed, Nov 26 314 Southern Indiana L 56-64 70%     4 - 2 -19.2 -20.5 +1.3
  Sat, Nov 29 243 Western Michigan W 72-70 57%    
  Tue, Dec 2 73 @Marquette L 65-81 6%    
  Sat, Dec 13 113 UNC Wilmington L 65-71 29%    
  Tue, Dec 16 56 @Northwestern L 61-79 4%    
  Sun, Dec 21 118 Murray St. L 74-80 29%    
  Mon, Dec 29 90 @Northern Iowa L 56-71 9%    
  Thu, Jan 1 142 @Southern Illinois L 65-75 19%    
  Sun, Jan 4 174 Illinois-Chicago L 71-72 45%    
  Wed, Jan 7 102 Illinois St. L 65-72 25%    
  Sat, Jan 10 118 @Murray St. L 71-83 14%    
  Tue, Jan 13 94 @Belmont L 65-79 10%    
  Sat, Jan 17 90 Northern Iowa L 59-68 23%    
  Wed, Jan 21 142 Southern Illinois L 68-72 37%    
  Wed, Jan 28 94 Belmont L 68-76 23%    
  Sat, Jan 31 166 @Indiana St. L 69-77 25%    
  Tue, Feb 3 112 @Bradley L 63-75 14%    
  Fri, Feb 6 291 Evansville W 70-65 65%    
  Mon, Feb 9 143 @Drake L 60-69 21%    
  Thu, Feb 12 102 @Illinois St. L 62-75 12%    
  Sun, Feb 15 166 Indiana St. L 72-74 44%    
  Wed, Feb 18 112 Bradley L 66-72 30%    
  Sat, Feb 21 174 @Illinois-Chicago L 68-75 26%    
  Wed, Feb 25 143 Drake L 63-66 38%    
  Sat, Feb 28 291 @Evansville L 67-68 45%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 1.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.6 0.6 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.4 3.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 11.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 4.1 6.3 4.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 17.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 4.4 7.9 8.2 4.5 1.0 0.1 27.1 10th
11th 1.1 3.7 6.5 7.1 4.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 25.8 11th
Total 1.1 3.7 7.5 11.6 14.2 14.6 13.5 11.0 8.7 6.0 3.8 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 40.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 16.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 7.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 29.6% 29.6% 13.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.3% 5.7% 5.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 0.6% 7.6% 7.6% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 1.1% 4.6% 4.6% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
11-9 2.2% 4.1% 4.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
10-10 3.8% 1.3% 1.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
9-11 6.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 6.0
8-12 8.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.6
7-13 11.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.0
6-14 13.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.4
5-15 14.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.6
4-16 14.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.1
3-17 11.6% 11.6
2-18 7.5% 7.5
1-19 3.7% 3.7
0-20 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%