Dixie St.
Western Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.1#306
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#255
Pace80.3#14
Improvement-1.4#278

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#259
First Shot-2.0#236
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#233
Layup/Dunks+0.0#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#153
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#320
Freethrows+2.9#30
Improvement-0.7#254

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#324
First Shot-5.8#332
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#144
Layups/Dunks-2.6#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#164
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#292
Freethrows-0.6#227
Improvement-0.7#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 n/a
.500 or above 2.3% 3.2% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 9.3% 11.3% 5.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 10.3% 8.6% 13.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Home) - 66.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 92 - 15
Quad 45 - 57 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 63-97 1%     0 - 1 -9.5 -8.6 +3.5
  Nov 12, 2021 140   Southern Utah W 83-76 25%     1 - 1 +5.9 +2.7 +2.7
  Nov 19, 2021 138   Texas St. L 65-85 17%     1 - 2 -18.0 -6.9 -11.1
  Nov 20, 2021 271   @ Cal St. Northridge L 73-79 31%     1 - 3 -9.0 -4.4 -4.4
  Nov 22, 2021 16   @ USC L 71-98 2%     1 - 4 -9.0 -1.2 -4.2
  Nov 27, 2021 97   Weber St. L 70-87 17%     1 - 5 -14.7 -6.7 -7.0
  Dec 11, 2021 326   Denver W 79-74 67%    
  Dec 18, 2021 330   @ North Dakota L 78-79 51%    
  Dec 22, 2021 140   @ Southern Utah L 74-87 12%    
  Dec 30, 2021 155   Tarleton St. L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 01, 2022 143   Abilene Christian L 73-80 27%    
  Jan 08, 2022 152   @ Utah Valley L 69-81 14%    
  Jan 12, 2022 217   @ California Baptist L 76-85 21%    
  Jan 15, 2022 173   @ Seattle L 74-85 17%    
  Jan 20, 2022 319   Lamar W 81-77 63%    
  Jan 22, 2022 286   UT Rio Grande Valley W 84-82 56%    
  Jan 29, 2022 355   @ Chicago St. W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 03, 2022 218   @ Sam Houston St. L 71-80 22%    
  Feb 05, 2022 158   @ Stephen F. Austin L 72-84 16%    
  Feb 10, 2022 102   New Mexico St. L 72-81 20%    
  Feb 12, 2022 110   Grand Canyon L 68-77 22%    
  Feb 16, 2022 102   @ New Mexico St. L 69-84 8%    
  Feb 19, 2022 152   Utah Valley L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 24, 2022 217   California Baptist L 79-82 40%    
  Feb 26, 2022 173   Seattle L 77-82 34%    
  Mar 03, 2022 143   @ Abilene Christian L 70-83 14%    
  Mar 05, 2022 110   @ Grand Canyon L 65-80 9%    
Projected Record 7 - 20 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 3rd
4th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.3 1.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.3 1.2 0.1 7.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 3.0 5.1 2.3 0.1 0.0 11.2 9th
10th 0.2 2.0 6.2 6.5 3.3 0.4 18.7 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 4.8 8.2 7.6 3.3 0.3 0.0 25.2 11th
12th 1.8 6.0 8.5 5.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 23.8 12th
13th 0.6 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 13th
Total 0.6 3.5 8.5 14.1 15.6 16.3 13.3 11.3 7.5 4.7 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 0.0%
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 24.7% 0.0    0.0
13-5 19.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.9% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.1
14-4 0.2% 0.2
13-5 0.2% 0.2
12-6 0.7% 0.7
11-7 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 1.1
10-8 2.2% 2.2
9-9 4.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.7
8-10 7.5% 7.5
7-11 11.3% 11.3
6-12 13.3% 13.3
5-13 16.3% 16.3
4-14 15.6% 15.6
3-15 14.1% 14.1
2-16 8.5% 8.5
1-17 3.5% 3.5
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%