IUPUI
Horizon
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.2#336
Expected Predictive Rating-19.6#354
Pace62.1#333
Improvement+0.0#172

Offense
Total Offense-9.0#350
First Shot-11.7#358
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#46
Layup/Dunks-6.6#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#258
Freethrows-3.3#337
Improvement+0.2#156

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#281
First Shot-2.6#265
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#231
Layups/Dunks+0.7#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#111
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#113
Freethrows-6.2#353
Improvement-0.2#199
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.8% 1.8% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 5.5% 11.7% 2.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 53.4% 36.4% 60.3%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 29.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 46 - 157 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 103   @ Butler L 47-56 5%     0 - 1 -1.7 -10.9 +7.4
  Nov 11, 2021 245   @ Evansville L 40-60 15%     0 - 2 -21.4 -26.7 +2.2
  Nov 15, 2021 326   Denver L 47-63 41%     0 - 3 -25.9 -26.9 -0.3
  Nov 16, 2021 318   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59-65 37%     0 - 4 -14.8 -19.4 +4.9
  Nov 17, 2021 300   @ Texas San Antonio L 57-60 23%     0 - 5 -7.5 -7.7 -0.3
  Dec 02, 2021 231   Detroit Mercy L 64-70 29%    
  Dec 04, 2021 124   Oakland L 57-69 13%    
  Dec 10, 2021 321   @ Tennessee St. L 64-70 28%    
  Dec 16, 2021 355   Chicago St. W 69-60 78%    
  Dec 21, 2021 134   Morehead St. L 56-67 15%    
  Dec 30, 2021 166   Cleveland St. L 57-66 21%    
  Jan 01, 2022 274   Purdue Fort Wayne L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 06, 2022 197   @ Northern Kentucky L 55-69 11%    
  Jan 08, 2022 205   @ Wright St. L 61-74 11%    
  Jan 10, 2022 252   Illinois-Chicago L 61-65 36%    
  Jan 13, 2022 301   @ Green Bay L 59-67 25%    
  Jan 15, 2022 264   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 58-68 20%    
  Jan 20, 2022 205   Wright St. L 64-71 25%    
  Jan 22, 2022 197   Northern Kentucky L 58-66 26%    
  Jan 27, 2022 124   @ Oakland L 54-72 6%    
  Jan 29, 2022 231   @ Detroit Mercy L 61-73 15%    
  Feb 03, 2022 279   Youngstown St. L 63-66 41%    
  Feb 05, 2022 290   Robert Morris L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 10, 2022 274   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 63-72 22%    
  Feb 12, 2022 166   @ Cleveland St. L 54-69 9%    
  Feb 14, 2022 252   @ Illinois-Chicago L 58-68 19%    
  Feb 17, 2022 290   @ Robert Morris L 63-71 24%    
  Feb 19, 2022 279   @ Youngstown St. L 60-69 22%    
  Feb 24, 2022 264   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 61-65 38%    
  Feb 26, 2022 301   Green Bay L 62-64 45%    
Projected Record 7 - 23 5 - 17




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.4 5th
6th 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.3 0.9 0.1 5.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.2 4.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 12.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.6 6.3 5.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 20.7 11th
12th 1.7 5.2 9.1 10.4 8.8 5.5 1.7 0.5 42.8 12th
Total 1.7 5.2 9.3 12.0 13.7 13.4 11.9 10.5 7.8 5.8 3.3 2.8 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 0.0%
16-6 64.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 0.0% 0.0
16-6 0.1% 0.1
15-7 0.1% 25.0% 25.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
14-8 0.5% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
13-9 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
12-10 1.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 1.1
11-11 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 2.7
10-12 3.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.3
9-13 5.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.8
8-14 7.8% 7.8
7-15 10.5% 10.5
6-16 11.9% 11.9
5-17 13.4% 13.4
4-18 13.7% 13.7
3-19 12.0% 12.0
2-20 9.3% 9.3
1-21 5.2% 5.2
0-22 1.7% 1.7
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%