IUPUI
Horizon
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.2#350
Expected Predictive Rating-12.3#329
Pace66.8#244
Improvement-2.0#331

Offense
Total Offense-6.7#339
First Shot-8.2#351
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#98
Layup/Dunks+2.7#85
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#71
3 Pt Jumpshots-11.9#362
Freethrows-1.0#241
Improvement-0.8#273

Defense
Total Defense-6.4#344
First Shot-3.3#279
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#340
Layups/Dunks-0.6#205
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#267
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#243
Freethrows-0.1#194
Improvement-1.2#301
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.8% 3.1% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 2.5% 10.6% 2.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 60.1% 41.2% 61.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Away) - 4.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 45 - 126 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 315   @ Valparaiso W 66-56 23%     1 - 0 +4.5 -3.8 +8.7
  Nov 14, 2023 85   @ Indiana St. L 57-96 3%     1 - 1 -29.7 -13.2 -16.4
  Nov 17, 2023 292   Elon L 72-86 28%     1 - 2 -21.1 -0.6 -21.6
  Nov 18, 2023 176   @ Winthrop L 61-74 8%     1 - 3 -10.5 -11.2 +0.1
  Nov 19, 2023 335   Holy Cross L 61-74 43%     1 - 4 -24.3 -12.3 -13.4
  Nov 29, 2023 129   @ Wright St. L 68-87 5%    
  Dec 02, 2023 206   Northern Kentucky L 63-71 23%    
  Dec 07, 2023 323   @ Eastern Illinois L 64-71 28%    
  Dec 12, 2023 125   @ Minnesota L 59-78 4%    
  Dec 16, 2023 346   Lindenwood W 73-71 58%    
  Dec 29, 2023 304   Detroit Mercy L 72-74 42%    
  Dec 31, 2023 167   Cleveland St. L 64-74 17%    
  Jan 04, 2024 273   @ Robert Morris L 64-74 17%    
  Jan 07, 2024 216   @ Youngstown St. L 68-82 11%    
  Jan 10, 2024 321   Green Bay L 65-66 44%    
  Jan 13, 2024 134   Oakland L 66-78 15%    
  Jan 17, 2024 208   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 65-79 10%    
  Jan 20, 2024 273   Robert Morris L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 25, 2024 216   Youngstown St. L 71-79 25%    
  Jan 28, 2024 129   Wright St. L 71-84 14%    
  Feb 01, 2024 321   @ Green Bay L 62-69 26%    
  Feb 04, 2024 264   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 71-82 18%    
  Feb 10, 2024 208   Purdue Fort Wayne L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 14, 2024 304   @ Detroit Mercy L 69-77 23%    
  Feb 17, 2024 134   @ Oakland L 63-81 6%    
  Feb 25, 2024 206   @ Northern Kentucky L 60-74 11%    
  Feb 28, 2024 264   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-79 35%    
  Mar 02, 2024 167   @ Cleveland St. L 61-77 8%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.7 4.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 12.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 4.1 8.0 6.5 2.5 0.6 0.0 23.1 10th
11th 3.6 9.6 13.2 12.7 7.0 2.7 0.3 0.0 49.0 11th
Total 3.6 9.6 14.5 17.0 16.3 13.3 9.5 7.2 4.1 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 10.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 1.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.1
13-7 0.2% 0.2
12-8 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
10-10 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
9-11 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.5
8-12 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.1
7-13 7.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.2
6-14 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.5
5-15 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.3
4-16 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.3
3-17 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.0
2-18 14.5% 14.5
1-19 9.6% 9.6
0-20 3.6% 3.6
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%