Michigan
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.9#17
Expected Predictive Rating+9.0#68
Pace66.3#252
Improvement-1.3#277

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#23
First Shot+3.2#86
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#11
Layup/Dunks+4.3#52
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#76
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#312
Freethrows+1.7#80
Improvement-0.3#222

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#19
First Shot+8.8#14
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#251
Layups/Dunks+3.5#60
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#34
Freethrows+3.3#18
Improvement-0.9#270
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.7% 2.4% 0.8%
#1 Seed 7.3% 9.9% 3.9%
Top 2 Seed 16.3% 21.4% 9.7%
Top 4 Seed 38.7% 47.3% 27.6%
Top 6 Seed 59.0% 68.4% 46.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.0% 90.4% 75.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.7% 88.8% 73.0%
Average Seed 5.2 4.7 5.8
.500 or above 93.1% 96.6% 88.6%
.500 or above in Conference 83.8% 87.3% 79.3%
Conference Champion 15.1% 17.9% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.8%
First Four3.7% 2.8% 4.9%
First Round82.6% 89.3% 73.9%
Second Round62.5% 69.5% 53.3%
Sweet Sixteen35.3% 40.9% 28.1%
Elite Eight17.6% 21.0% 13.2%
Final Four8.4% 10.2% 6.1%
Championship Game3.8% 4.6% 2.7%
National Champion1.6% 2.0% 1.2%

Next Game: North Carolina (Away) - 56.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 9
Quad 26 - 213 - 11
Quad 35 - 018 - 11
Quad 43 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 70   Buffalo W 88-76 85%     1 - 0 +16.0 +10.7 +4.9
  Nov 13, 2021 251   Prairie View W 77-49 96%     2 - 0 +23.1 -2.0 +23.8
  Nov 16, 2021 28   Seton Hall L 65-67 69%     2 - 1 +7.8 -0.8 +8.5
  Nov 19, 2021 145   UNLV W 74-61 89%     3 - 1 +14.5 +7.4 +7.9
  Nov 21, 2021 5   Arizona L 62-80 38%     3 - 2 +0.0 -1.8 +1.9
  Nov 24, 2021 180   Tarleton St. W 65-54 95%     4 - 2 +7.2 -1.1 +9.5
  Dec 01, 2021 42   @ North Carolina W 77-75 56%    
  Dec 04, 2021 48   San Diego St. W 68-59 79%    
  Dec 07, 2021 108   @ Nebraska W 76-68 76%    
  Dec 11, 2021 85   Minnesota W 74-62 86%    
  Dec 18, 2021 141   Southern Utah W 79-63 93%    
  Dec 21, 2021 275   Purdue Fort Wayne W 84-60 99%    
  Dec 30, 2021 65   @ Central Florida W 70-65 66%    
  Jan 04, 2022 99   @ Rutgers W 68-61 72%    
  Jan 08, 2022 22   Michigan St. W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 11, 2022 2   Purdue L 70-72 45%    
  Jan 14, 2022 32   @ Illinois L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 18, 2022 51   Maryland W 72-63 80%    
  Jan 23, 2022 31   @ Indiana L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 26, 2022 44   Northwestern W 74-66 76%    
  Jan 29, 2022 22   @ Michigan St. L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 01, 2022 108   Nebraska W 79-65 89%    
  Feb 05, 2022 2   @ Purdue L 67-75 26%    
  Feb 08, 2022 68   @ Penn St. W 66-61 66%    
  Feb 12, 2022 29   Ohio St. W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 17, 2022 19   @ Iowa L 76-78 42%    
  Feb 20, 2022 30   @ Wisconsin L 63-64 48%    
  Feb 23, 2022 99   Rutgers W 71-58 86%    
  Feb 27, 2022 32   Illinois W 74-68 70%    
  Mar 03, 2022 19   Iowa W 79-75 62%    
  Mar 06, 2022 29   @ Ohio St. L 70-71 48%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.9 4.3 3.8 2.1 0.8 0.1 15.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 5.2 2.9 0.8 0.1 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.9 5.1 1.8 0.3 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.2 4.8 1.5 0.2 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.5 4.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.1 1.8 0.1 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.2 6.8 8.9 11.4 12.6 13.2 12.2 10.1 7.5 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 96.1% 2.1    1.9 0.2
17-3 82.1% 3.8    2.8 1.0 0.0
16-4 57.7% 4.3    2.4 1.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 28.4% 2.9    0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1
14-6 7.3% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.1% 15.1 9.0 4.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 45.1% 54.9% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.8% 100.0% 44.0% 56.0% 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.2% 100.0% 36.2% 63.8% 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.6% 100.0% 32.7% 67.3% 1.7 2.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.5% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 2.3 1.8 2.8 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.1% 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 3.1 0.9 2.3 3.4 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.2% 99.9% 15.8% 84.2% 4.1 0.3 1.0 2.8 3.7 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 13.2% 99.8% 11.8% 88.0% 5.1 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.0 3.4 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 12.6% 98.5% 8.6% 90.0% 6.3 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.4 2.9 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 98.4%
11-9 11.4% 92.0% 4.9% 87.1% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.7 2.2 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 91.6%
10-10 8.9% 74.7% 4.2% 70.6% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 73.6%
9-11 6.8% 40.9% 2.3% 38.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.0 39.5%
8-12 4.2% 17.0% 1.2% 15.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 16.0%
7-13 2.6% 4.2% 0.5% 3.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 3.8%
6-14 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 1.4 0.1%
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 84.0% 12.7% 71.4% 5.2 7.3 9.0 11.0 11.4 10.7 9.6 7.7 5.6 3.8 2.9 3.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 16.0 81.7%