Michigan
Big Ten
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.0#58
Expected Predictive Rating+6.9#79
Pace69.6#135
Improvement+0.3#151

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#49
First Shot+6.3#28
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#245
Layup/Dunks+0.9#132
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#131
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#75
Freethrows+2.0#51
Improvement-0.2#232

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#78
First Shot+3.5#72
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#165
Layups/Dunks-0.7#214
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#75
Freethrows+1.8#56
Improvement+0.5#108
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 12.9% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.7% 9.4% 2.1%
Average Seed 11.4 10.6 12.6
.500 or above 42.4% 62.1% 31.2%
.500 or above in Conference 42.4% 62.1% 31.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.8% 4.2% 2.1%
First Round6.8% 11.2% 4.3%
Second Round2.6% 4.7% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.4% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern (Away) - 36.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 52 - 12
Quad 25 - 27 - 14
Quad 33 - 010 - 15
Quad 46 - 115 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 204   Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-56 89%     1 - 0 +14.5 -2.6 +16.4
  Nov 11, 2022 302   Eastern Michigan W 88-83 93%     2 - 0 -2.8 -2.1 -1.3
  Nov 16, 2022 64   Pittsburgh W 91-60 52%     3 - 0 +39.4 +26.7 +14.3
  Nov 17, 2022 66   Arizona St. L 62-87 53%     3 - 1 -16.6 -1.3 -16.6
  Nov 20, 2022 153   Ohio W 70-66 OT 85%     4 - 1 +1.9 -8.1 +9.9
  Nov 23, 2022 327   Jackson St. W 78-68 96%     5 - 1 -2.2 -2.5 -0.1
  Nov 29, 2022 16   Virginia L 68-70 41%     5 - 2 +9.5 +9.8 -0.6
  Dec 04, 2022 32   Kentucky L 69-73 37%     5 - 3 +8.3 +0.2 +8.1
  Dec 08, 2022 173   @ Minnesota W 90-75 73%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +17.7 +16.2 +0.7
  Dec 17, 2022 194   Lipscomb W 83-75 88%     7 - 3 +4.0 +5.8 -2.0
  Dec 21, 2022 26   North Carolina L 76-80 35%     7 - 4 +8.9 +5.0 +4.1
  Dec 29, 2022 299   Central Michigan L 61-63 95%     7 - 5 -12.4 -9.4 -3.2
  Jan 01, 2023 31   Maryland W 81-46 47%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +44.7 +8.0 +34.3
  Jan 04, 2023 45   Penn St. W 79-69 55%     9 - 5 3 - 0 +17.7 +13.2 +5.2
  Jan 07, 2023 39   @ Michigan St. L 53-59 31%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +8.2 -10.1 +18.0
  Jan 12, 2023 30   @ Iowa L 84-93 OT 27%     9 - 7 3 - 2 +6.3 +10.8 -4.1
  Jan 15, 2023 50   Northwestern W 85-78 57%     10 - 7 4 - 2 +14.2 +12.6 +1.1
  Jan 19, 2023 31   @ Maryland L 58-64 28%     10 - 8 4 - 3 +9.1 +5.9 +2.0
  Jan 22, 2023 173   Minnesota W 60-56 86%     11 - 8 5 - 3 +1.2 -10.8 +12.1
  Jan 26, 2023 4   Purdue L 70-75 27%     11 - 9 5 - 4 +10.4 +8.7 +1.3
  Jan 29, 2023 45   @ Penn St. L 61-83 34%     11 - 10 5 - 5 -8.8 -0.9 -10.1
  Feb 02, 2023 50   @ Northwestern L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 05, 2023 29   Ohio St. L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 08, 2023 94   Nebraska W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 11, 2023 21   Indiana L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 14, 2023 57   @ Wisconsin L 64-67 39%    
  Feb 18, 2023 39   Michigan St. W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 23, 2023 20   @ Rutgers L 63-70 23%    
  Feb 26, 2023 57   Wisconsin W 67-64 61%    
  Mar 02, 2023 17   @ Illinois L 69-77 22%    
  Mar 05, 2023 21   @ Indiana L 70-77 23%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.5 2.4 0.7 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 2.3 0.1 5.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 5.1 0.7 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.1 4.3 3.5 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 8.2 0.9 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.1 5.1 5.7 0.1 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 9.3 1.5 12.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 6.6 6.5 0.1 13.6 10th
11th 0.2 3.5 8.4 1.3 0.0 13.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.9 5.9 2.6 0.1 10.5 12th
13th 0.4 1.4 0.9 0.0 2.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.5 3.5 10.8 19.4 23.5 20.8 13.0 6.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 5.6% 0.0    0.0
14-6 4.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.4% 95.8% 6.8% 89.1% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.5%
13-7 1.9% 74.9% 6.7% 68.2% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 73.1%
12-8 6.2% 36.7% 5.1% 31.6% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.1 4.0 33.3%
11-9 13.0% 11.1% 4.3% 6.8% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.6 7.1%
10-10 20.8% 4.0% 3.7% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 20.0 0.3%
9-11 23.5% 3.0% 3.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 22.8
8-12 19.4% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.1 0.4 18.9
7-13 10.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 10.5
6-14 3.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 3.5
5-15 0.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.9% 3.3% 4.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.9 92.1 4.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5% 2.3% 16.0 2.3