Michigan
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +25.0 #1
Expected Predictive Rating +28.3 #4
Pace 79.0 #10
Improvement -4.5 #339

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #6 A A+ B- A- A
Defense #1 A+ B+ B- A A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #8 1.38 #11 +11.1 #1
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #357 0.82 #83 -4.4 #354
Three Pointers 43% #138 1.05 #125 +1.9 #111
1st FG Attempt 1.19 #11 +8.6 #11
Freethrows 0.39 #8 73% #146 0.28 #12
Second Chance 38.3% #17 1.40 #1 0.54 #1
Turnovers 15.5% #90
Total Offense +11.8 #6

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 26% #362 0.82 #1 +11.8 #1
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #8 0.63 #13 -1.8 #315
Three Pointers 44% #87 0.84 #10 +2.5 #88
1st FG Attempt 0.77 #1 +12.4 #1
Freethrows 0.22 #9 70% #68 0.15 #11
Second Chance 24.7% #19 0.97 #92 0.24 #29
Turnovers 18.9% #74
Total Defense +13.3 #1

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.5% #5 -4.3% #4
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.8% #29 -21.0% #1
Possession Length 13.3 #1 18.8 #350
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.28 #10 0.06 #2
Improvement -1.6 #276 -2.9 #320

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 28.1% 28.3% 12.0%
#1 Seed 77.5% 77.6% 64.1%
Top 2 Seed 98.7% 98.7% 98.9%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.2 1.2 1.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 60.8% 61.0% 33.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.8% 99.8% 100.0%
Sweet Sixteen84.8% 84.8% 87.0%
Elite Eight63.0% 63.0% 64.1%
Final Four42.5% 42.6% 35.9%
Championship Game27.4% 27.5% 17.4%
National Champion17.5% 17.5% 12.0%

Next Game: Penn St. (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 37 - 3
Quad 1b7 - 014 - 3
Quad 28 - 122 - 4
Quad 35 - 027 - 4
Quad 42 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 128 Oakland W 121 - 78 98% +27  1 - 0 +42 +32 A+ A+ A +5 C A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 75 Wake Forest W 85 - 84 OT 94% +2  2 - 0 +9 -0 D A B+ +9 A+ D C-
 Fri, Nov 14 50 @TCU W 67 - 63 86% -2  3 - 0 +17 +3 C- A+ F +15 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Nov 19 157 Middle Tennessee W 86 - 61 99% +13  4 - 0 +22 +4 C- A+ D+ +15 A+ C+ B
 Mon, Nov 24 43 San Diego St. W 94 - 54 89% +18  5 - 0 +52 +23 A+ A+ A +26 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 28 Auburn W 102 - 72 82% +21  6 - 0 +46 +33 A- A+ A+ +12 A+ A+ D
 Wed, Nov 26 11 Gonzaga W 101 - 61 70% +25  7 - 0 +60 +25 A+ C+ A- +30 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 121 Rutgers W 101 - 60 98% +22  8 - 0 1 - 0 +41 +24 A+ A+ B +16 A+ C- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 33 Villanova W 89 - 61 90% +23  9 - 0 +39 +12 C+ A+ A+ +24 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 13 107 @Maryland W 101 - 83 95% +3  10 - 0 2 - 0 +25 +32 A+ C A -7 D- F C-
 Sun, Dec 21 225 La Salle W 102 - 50 99% +24  11 - 0 +45 +21 A+ D- A- +21 A+ B- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 86 McNeese St. W 112 - 71 97% +30  12 - 0 +44 +22 A+ A+ A+ +15 A+ A+ D
 Fri, Jan 2 47 USC W 96 - 66 93% +16  13 - 0 3 - 0 +39 +13 A- B+ A +21 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 114 @Penn St. W 74 - 72 95% +5  14 - 0 4 - 0 +8 -0 D+ D B +8 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 10 37 Wisconsin L 88 - 91 91% +2  14 - 1 4 - 1 +8 +16 A- B- B+ -8 D+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 14 41 @Washington W 82 - 72 82% +8  15 - 1 5 - 1 +25 +15 C- A+ A+ +10 A+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 83 @Oregon W 81 - 71 92% +6  16 - 1 6 - 1 +20 +16 A+ A+ F+ +5 A+ F+ C-
 Tue, Jan 20 32 Indiana W 86 - 72 89% +14  17 - 1 7 - 1 +25 +17 A+ A+ C- +8 A A+ C
 Fri, Jan 23 36 Ohio St. W 74 - 62 91% +2  18 - 1 8 - 1 +23 +9 B- A+ F+ +14 A+ C A-
 Tue, Jan 27 14 Nebraska W 75 - 72 82% -4  19 - 1 9 - 1 +19 +9 B+ A+ F +10 C+ A+ B
 Fri, Jan 30 10 @Michigan St. W 83 - 71 57% +7  20 - 1 10 - 1 +35 +22 B A+ C+ +13 A+ A+ B-
 Thu, Feb 5 114 Penn St. W 94 - 69 99%
 Sun, Feb 8 36 @Ohio St. W 85 - 77 79%
 Wed, Feb 11 62 @Northwestern W 84 - 71 89%
 Sat, Feb 14 31 UCLA W 83 - 69 90%
 Tue, Feb 17 9 @Purdue W 79 - 78 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 3 Duke W 78 - 77 55%
 Tue, Feb 24 77 Minnesota W 82 - 62 97%
 Fri, Feb 27 8 @Illinois W 81 - 80 52%
 Thu, Mar 5 21 @Iowa W 77 - 72 69%
 Sun, Mar 8 10 Michigan St. W 78 - 70 77%
Totals 28 - 3 17 - 3 +25 +12 A A+ B- +13 A+ B+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.0 19.8 25.7 11.2 60.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 11.0 11.0 1.1 24.8 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.7 4.7 0.6 9.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 2.3 0.4 3.7 4th
5th 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.3 8.0 20.0 31.3 26.8 11.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 11.2    11.2
18-2 96.0% 25.7    19.3 6.2 0.3
17-3 63.0% 19.8    7.3 9.3 2.9 0.2
16-4 19.7% 4.0    0.4 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.0
15-5 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 60.8% 60.8 38.2 17.0 4.6 0.9 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 11.2% 100.0% 50.7% 49.3% 1.1 10.2 1.0 100.0%
18-2 26.8% 100.0% 46.9% 53.1% 1.1 23.0 3.7 0.0 100.0%
17-3 31.3% 100.0% 40.6% 59.4% 1.2 25.0 6.2 0.1 100.0%
16-4 20.0% 100.0% 34.1% 65.9% 1.3 14.0 5.7 0.3 100.0%
15-5 8.0% 100.0% 28.8% 71.2% 1.5 4.3 3.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.3% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 1.8 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.3% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 40.7% 59.3% 1.2 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.6% 100.0% 1.0 95.3 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2% 100.0% 1.1 89.0 11.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2% 100.0% 1.1 89.3 10.7