Michigan
Big Ten
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#104
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#127
Pace68.6#177
Improvement-7.4#358

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#88
First Shot+3.7#74
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#169
Layup/Dunks-2.4#281
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#149
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#54
Freethrows+2.0#63
Improvement-6.9#361

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#141
First Shot+1.2#137
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#197
Layups/Dunks+1.5#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#292
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#201
Freethrows+1.7#66
Improvement-0.5#212
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.5% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 98.6% 93.4% 99.3%
First Four1.2% 1.0% 1.2%
First Round1.1% 1.4% 1.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue (Home) - 11.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 63 - 14
Quad 23 - 56 - 19
Quad 32 - 28 - 22
Quad 41 - 09 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 156   UNC Asheville W 99-74 76%     1 - 0 +22.6 +21.3 +0.6
  Nov 10, 2023 135   Youngstown St. W 92-62 71%     2 - 0 +29.2 +9.4 +17.3
  Nov 13, 2023 39   @ St. John's W 89-73 20%     3 - 0 +29.6 +19.8 +9.4
  Nov 17, 2023 152   Long Beach St. L 86-94 75%     3 - 1 -10.0 +3.9 -13.1
  Nov 22, 2023 71   Memphis L 67-71 40%     3 - 2 +3.4 -2.2 +5.6
  Nov 23, 2023 98   Stanford W 83-78 47%     4 - 2 +10.7 +13.5 -2.7
  Nov 24, 2023 30   Texas Tech L 57-73 24%     4 - 3 -3.8 -4.6 -1.3
  Dec 02, 2023 53   @ Oregon L 83-86 OT 24%     4 - 4 +9.3 +16.0 -6.7
  Dec 05, 2023 99   Indiana L 75-78 58%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -0.1 +1.7 -1.7
  Dec 10, 2023 42   @ Iowa W 90-80 21%     5 - 5 1 - 1 +23.4 +13.5 +9.3
  Dec 16, 2023 329   Eastern Michigan W 83-66 94%     6 - 5 +4.0 +6.9 -2.2
  Dec 19, 2023 23   Florida L 101-106 2OT 21%     6 - 6 +8.3 +6.2 +3.3
  Dec 29, 2023 88   McNeese St. L 76-87 55%     6 - 7 -7.5 +2.9 -10.2
  Jan 04, 2024 60   Minnesota L 71-73 44%     6 - 8 1 - 2 +4.4 +7.8 -3.7
  Jan 07, 2024 79   @ Penn St. L 73-79 32%     6 - 9 1 - 3 +3.7 +2.2 +1.7
  Jan 11, 2024 41   @ Maryland L 57-64 21%     6 - 10 1 - 4 +6.5 -0.6 +6.5
  Jan 15, 2024 63   Ohio St. W 73-65 45%     7 - 10 2 - 4 +14.1 +4.5 +10.0
  Jan 18, 2024 11   Illinois L 73-88 21%     7 - 11 2 - 5 -1.4 +3.4 -4.9
  Jan 23, 2024 1   @ Purdue L 67-99 5%     7 - 12 2 - 6 -8.4 +2.9 -11.5
  Jan 27, 2024 42   Iowa L 78-88 38%     7 - 13 2 - 7 -2.1 +4.8 -6.9
  Jan 30, 2024 16   @ Michigan St. L 62-81 12%     7 - 14 2 - 8 -1.1 +8.1 -12.1
  Feb 03, 2024 72   Rutgers L 59-69 51%     7 - 15 2 - 9 -5.3 -4.1 -1.3
  Feb 07, 2024 25   Wisconsin W 72-68 30%     8 - 15 3 - 9 +14.3 +5.4 +9.0
  Feb 10, 2024 35   @ Nebraska L 59-79 19%     8 - 16 3 - 10 -5.7 -2.8 -4.5
  Feb 13, 2024 11   @ Illinois L 68-97 10%     8 - 17 3 - 11 -10.0 -0.1 -9.6
  Feb 17, 2024 16   Michigan St. L 63-73 24%     8 - 18 3 - 12 +2.5 -7.7 +10.9
  Feb 22, 2024 40   @ Northwestern L 62-76 20%     8 - 19 3 - 13 -0.4 +6.2 -9.3
  Feb 25, 2024 1   Purdue L 70-83 11%    
  Feb 29, 2024 72   @ Rutgers L 65-70 30%    
  Mar 03, 2024 63   @ Ohio St. L 70-77 26%    
  Mar 10, 2024 35   Nebraska L 73-77 37%    
Projected Record 9 - 22 4 - 16





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.2 11th
12th 1.2 0.2 1.4 12th
13th 2.8 2.8 0.1 5.7 13th
14th 30.6 41.5 19.4 1.2 92.6 14th
Total 30.6 41.5 22.2 5.2 0.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
6-14 5.2% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 5.1
5-15 22.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 21.9
4-16 41.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.5 41.0
3-17 30.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.4 30.2
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 1.7% 15.3 1.3 0.4
Lose Out 30.6% 1.2% 16.0 1.2