Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.7#12
Expected Predictive Rating+22.0#10
Pace73.4#82
Improvement+0.0#192

Offense
Total Offense+12.3#3
First Shot+10.9#6
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#94
Layup/Dunks+6.7#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#190
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#42
Freethrows-0.7#217
Improvement-1.1#278

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#33
First Shot+3.6#63
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#33
Layups/Dunks+5.7#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#271
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#126
Freethrows-2.5#322
Improvement+1.1#98
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.6% 2.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 14.7% 14.7% 5.8%
Top 2 Seed 36.5% 36.6% 13.0%
Top 4 Seed 74.2% 74.3% 49.3%
Top 6 Seed 91.2% 91.3% 71.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.1% 99.1% 94.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.9% 98.9% 93.3%
Average Seed 3.5 3.5 4.9
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 97.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.7% 92.8% 77.5%
Conference Champion 28.6% 28.6% 13.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 2.2%
First Round98.8% 98.8% 92.8%
Second Round88.6% 88.7% 72.5%
Sweet Sixteen57.1% 57.2% 43.5%
Elite Eight29.2% 29.2% 15.9%
Final Four13.8% 13.8% 5.8%
Championship Game6.2% 6.2% 2.9%
National Champion2.6% 2.6% 0.7%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b7 - 211 - 6
Quad 28 - 118 - 7
Quad 32 - 021 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 141 Lipscomb W 105-61 96%     1 - 0 +42.3 +25.6 +13.9
  Sat, Nov 8 58 @Central Florida W 105-93 72%     2 - 0 +24.6 +30.1 -6.2
  Wed, Nov 12 248 Eastern Kentucky W 92-62 98%     3 - 0 +22.0 +9.8 +11.1
  Sat, Nov 15 352 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 104-75 99.6%    4 - 0 +13.0 +18.2 -6.9
  Thu, Nov 20 305 Texas Southern W 109-74 99%     5 - 0 +23.9 +25.2 -3.5
  Wed, Nov 26 145 Western Kentucky W 83-78 94%     6 - 0 +5.9 +0.1 +5.1
  Thu, Nov 27 48 Virginia Commonwealth W 89-74 77%     7 - 0 +25.9 +16.6 +8.3
  Fri, Nov 28 37 St. Mary's W 96-71 73%     8 - 0 +37.2 +27.2 +9.1
  Wed, Dec 3 35 SMU W 88-69 80%     9 - 0 +28.9 +22.4 +7.1
  Sat, Dec 13 285 Central Arkansas W 92-64 99.5%   
  Wed, Dec 17 66 @Memphis W 83-76 76%    
  Sun, Dec 21 49 @Wake Forest W 84-79 68%    
  Mon, Dec 29 338 New Haven W 89-56 99.9%   
  Sat, Jan 3 86 @South Carolina W 81-71 81%    
  Tue, Jan 6 9 Alabama W 92-89 60%    
  Sat, Jan 10 38 LSU W 85-75 81%    
  Wed, Jan 14 40 @Texas W 83-79 64%    
  Sat, Jan 17 15 Florida W 84-80 64%    
  Tue, Jan 20 25 @Arkansas W 82-81 52%    
  Sat, Jan 24 82 @Mississippi St. W 84-75 78%    
  Tue, Jan 27 24 Kentucky W 85-78 72%    
  Sat, Jan 31 57 @Mississippi W 79-73 70%    
  Sat, Feb 7 52 Oklahoma W 88-77 84%    
  Tue, Feb 10 27 @Auburn W 82-81 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 44 Texas A&M W 88-77 83%    
  Wed, Feb 18 50 @Missouri W 85-80 67%    
  Sat, Feb 21 18 Tennessee W 80-75 69%    
  Wed, Feb 25 19 Georgia W 92-86 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 24 @Kentucky W 82-81 52%    
  Wed, Mar 4 57 Mississippi W 82-70 85%    
  Sat, Mar 7 18 @Tennessee L 77-78 49%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.7 7.0 8.3 6.4 3.0 0.7 28.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.8 7.0 5.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 5.5 4.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.2 4.8 1.0 0.1 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 4.3 1.2 0.1 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.4 1.9 0.1 6.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.7 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.6 5.9 9.1 12.4 14.6 15.3 14.1 10.7 6.8 3.0 0.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 99.8% 3.0    2.9 0.2
16-2 94.1% 6.4    5.4 0.9 0.0
15-3 78.3% 8.3    5.5 2.5 0.3
14-4 49.6% 7.0    2.9 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 17.9% 2.7    0.4 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.6% 28.6 17.9 7.5 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 100.0% 45.2% 54.8% 1.2 0.6 0.1 100.0%
17-1 3.0% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 1.3 2.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.8% 100.0% 35.4% 64.6% 1.5 3.6 2.7 0.4 100.0%
15-3 10.7% 100.0% 30.5% 69.5% 1.8 3.9 4.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 14.1% 100.0% 26.6% 73.4% 2.2 2.8 6.1 4.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.3% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 2.8 1.2 4.4 6.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.6% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 3.4 0.3 2.1 5.6 4.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.4% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 4.2 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.4 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 9.1% 100.0% 6.6% 93.4% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 3.1 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 5.9% 99.8% 5.4% 94.3% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.7 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
8-10 3.6% 98.5% 3.9% 94.7% 7.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.5%
7-11 2.0% 92.3% 1.8% 90.5% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 92.2%
6-12 1.0% 71.5% 2.3% 69.2% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 70.8%
5-13 0.4% 45.2% 45.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 45.2%
4-14 0.1% 6.8% 6.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.8%
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.1% 18.9% 80.1% 3.5 14.7 21.8 22.0 15.7 10.8 6.2 3.4 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.9 98.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 89.4 10.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 93.3 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 75.8 24.2