Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#77
Expected Predictive Rating+6.5#93
Pace69.4#171
Improvement-0.4#205

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#110
First Shot+2.4#112
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#189
Layup/Dunks+2.6#86
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#160
Freethrows+0.8#127
Improvement-1.1#290

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#61
First Shot+4.8#43
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#192
Layups/Dunks+7.2#7
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#121
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#288
Freethrows-0.7#231
Improvement+0.7#103
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 3.3% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.0% 23.8% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.5% 23.2% 10.8%
Average Seed 9.0 8.9 9.2
.500 or above 60.5% 73.5% 49.7%
.500 or above in Conference 26.6% 32.4% 21.8%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 9.3% 6.6% 11.6%
First Four3.6% 4.8% 2.6%
First Round15.1% 21.1% 10.0%
Second Round7.2% 10.6% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 3.1% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 45.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 33 - 10
Quad 23 - 35 - 12
Quad 35 - 210 - 14
Quad 45 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 339   Alabama St. W 91-72 97%     1 - 0 +3.3 +3.7 -2.3
  Nov 14, 2021 138   Texas St. W 79-60 77%     2 - 0 +18.0 +10.1 +9.0
  Nov 17, 2021 85   Virginia Commonwealth L 37-48 63%     2 - 1 -7.5 -24.1 +16.0
  Nov 20, 2021 146   Winthrop W 77-63 79%     3 - 1 +12.5 -0.8 +12.8
  Nov 24, 2021 200   @ Pittsburgh W 68-52 71%     4 - 1 +17.2 +5.9 +13.4
  Nov 29, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 75-36 99.5%    5 - 1 +11.4 -11.9 +23.3
  Dec 04, 2021 99   @ SMU L 71-72 46%    
  Dec 07, 2021 150   Temple W 74-65 79%    
  Dec 10, 2021 33   Loyola Chicago L 64-66 42%    
  Dec 18, 2021 259   Austin Peay W 76-61 93%    
  Dec 23, 2021 188   Hawaii W 74-66 77%    
  Jan 04, 2022 24   @ Arkansas L 69-79 19%    
  Jan 08, 2022 98   South Carolina W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 11, 2022 12   Kentucky L 67-73 30%    
  Jan 15, 2022 159   @ Georgia W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 18, 2022 18   Tennessee L 67-72 34%    
  Jan 22, 2022 14   @ Florida L 63-75 14%    
  Jan 26, 2022 98   @ South Carolina L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 29, 2022 159   Georgia W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 02, 2022 12   @ Kentucky L 64-76 15%    
  Feb 05, 2022 10   LSU L 69-76 28%    
  Feb 08, 2022 132   Missouri W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 12, 2022 18   @ Tennessee L 64-75 18%    
  Feb 16, 2022 21   @ Auburn L 68-78 19%    
  Feb 19, 2022 80   Texas A&M W 67-64 60%    
  Feb 22, 2022 13   Alabama L 73-79 31%    
  Feb 26, 2022 38   @ Mississippi St. L 63-70 28%    
  Mar 01, 2022 14   Florida L 66-72 31%    
  Mar 05, 2022 69   @ Mississippi L 63-66 37%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.0 0.1 3.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 1.4 0.3 3.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 3.3 0.6 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 3.5 2.1 0.2 7.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 5.0 3.3 0.3 10.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.6 4.9 0.8 0.0 11.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 1.3 6.1 5.9 1.7 0.1 15.2 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 4.3 5.8 2.3 0.1 13.7 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 4.3 4.8 1.5 0.1 11.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 2.8 3.6 1.1 0.1 8.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.7 14th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.7 5.5 9.5 11.6 14.9 14.6 13.7 10.0 7.8 4.0 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 80.6% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 51.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 15.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.2% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100.0%
14-4 0.5% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.3% 100.0% 3.7% 96.3% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 2.7% 97.2% 4.9% 92.3% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.0%
11-7 4.0% 81.0% 2.2% 78.7% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.8 80.5%
10-8 7.8% 57.7% 2.5% 55.3% 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.3 3.3 56.7%
9-9 10.0% 30.9% 0.2% 30.7% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.5 0.4 6.9 30.8%
8-10 13.7% 8.6% 0.3% 8.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 12.6 8.3%
7-11 14.6% 1.7% 0.6% 1.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.3 1.2%
6-12 14.9% 14.9
5-13 11.6% 11.6
4-14 9.5% 9.5
3-15 5.5% 5.5
2-16 2.7% 2.7
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 17.0% 0.7% 16.3% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.9 2.4 2.8 2.8 3.6 1.4 0.0 83.0 16.5%