Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#97
Expected Predictive Rating+4.6#106
Pace65.9#255
Improvement-0.1#201

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#66
First Shot+2.0#107
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#33
Layup/Dunks-0.5#199
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#176
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#70
Freethrows-0.4#201
Improvement+1.3#27

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#157
First Shot-0.7#198
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#76
Layups/Dunks+0.7#154
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#274
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#247
Freethrows+0.7#127
Improvement-1.4#341
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.5% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.5 14.1 15.4
.500 or above 7.5% 11.0% 1.9%
.500 or above in Conference 7.5% 11.0% 1.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.3% 4.0%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.7%
First Round1.1% 1.2% 0.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi (Home) - 61.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 11
Quad 24 - 55 - 15
Quad 32 - 17 - 16
Quad 46 - 113 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 38   Memphis L 67-76 35%     0 - 1 -0.3 +2.2 -3.1
  Nov 11, 2022 111   Southern Miss L 48-60 65%     0 - 2 -11.2 -23.8 +12.4
  Nov 15, 2022 98   @ Temple W 89-87 OT 40%     1 - 2 +9.6 +17.6 -8.1
  Nov 18, 2022 278   Morehead St. W 76-43 90%     2 - 2 +24.1 -1.5 +25.7
  Nov 23, 2022 12   St. Mary's L 65-75 17%     2 - 3 +5.0 +0.7 +4.6
  Nov 24, 2022 169   Fresno St. W 67-59 68%     3 - 3 +8.0 +2.3 +6.3
  Nov 30, 2022 74   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-70 32%     3 - 4 +4.8 +1.5 +3.3
  Dec 03, 2022 215   Wofford W 65-62 82%     4 - 4 -2.0 -12.3 +10.4
  Dec 07, 2022 64   Pittsburgh W 75-74 47%     5 - 4 +6.7 +5.9 +0.8
  Dec 09, 2022 240   Grambling St. L 62-64 86%     5 - 5 -8.8 -3.5 -5.6
  Dec 17, 2022 37   North Carolina St. L 66-70 26%     5 - 6 +7.5 +5.6 +1.4
  Dec 22, 2022 347   Alabama A&M W 70-62 96%     6 - 6 -6.8 -1.4 -4.7
  Dec 30, 2022 273   SE Louisiana W 93-55 89%     7 - 6 +29.5 +14.0 +16.0
  Jan 03, 2023 229   South Carolina W 84-79 OT 85%     8 - 6 1 - 0 -1.1 +2.1 -3.6
  Jan 07, 2023 46   @ Missouri L 82-85 23%     8 - 7 1 - 1 +9.8 +7.3 +2.5
  Jan 10, 2023 3   @ Tennessee L 68-77 7%     8 - 8 1 - 2 +12.4 +16.0 -4.5
  Jan 14, 2023 18   Arkansas W 97-84 27%     9 - 8 2 - 2 +24.2 +33.4 -9.0
  Jan 17, 2023 2   Alabama L 66-78 14%     9 - 9 2 - 3 +4.3 -2.9 +8.2
  Jan 21, 2023 103   @ Georgia W 85-82 42%     10 - 9 3 - 3 +10.0 +15.2 -5.2
  Jan 24, 2023 32   Kentucky L 53-69 32%     10 - 10 3 - 4 -6.4 -5.2 -4.6
  Jan 28, 2023 42   @ Texas A&M L 66-72 21%     10 - 11 3 - 5 +7.4 +6.1 +0.6
  Jan 31, 2023 2   @ Alabama L 44-101 7%     10 - 12 3 - 6 -35.2 -17.1 -18.2
  Feb 04, 2023 95   Mississippi W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 08, 2023 3   Tennessee L 61-72 15%    
  Feb 11, 2023 40   @ Florida L 64-73 19%    
  Feb 14, 2023 229   @ South Carolina W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 18, 2023 27   Auburn L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 22, 2023 106   @ LSU L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 25, 2023 40   Florida L 67-71 37%    
  Mar 01, 2023 32   @ Kentucky L 66-76 16%    
  Mar 04, 2023 55   Mississippi St. L 63-65 44%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.2 0.3 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.2 2.1 0.1 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.9 8.8 7.1 0.7 0.0 18.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 9.8 10.7 1.8 0.0 23.5 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 9.9 13.0 3.2 0.1 27.3 11th
12th 0.2 4.3 7.1 1.7 0.0 13.3 12th
13th 1.0 2.7 0.8 0.0 4.5 13th
14th 0.3 0.1 0.3 14th
Total 1.5 8.1 19.2 26.4 23.6 13.9 5.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 39.3% 3.7% 35.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 36.9%
10-8 1.5% 9.4% 2.5% 6.9% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4 7.1%
9-9 5.7% 2.0% 1.6% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.4%
8-10 13.9% 1.1% 1.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.7
7-11 23.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.7 0.1 0.2 23.3
6-12 26.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 26.1
5-13 19.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 19.0
4-14 8.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.0
3-15 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 98.7 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5% 0.3% 16.0 0.3