Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#51
Expected Predictive Rating+12.1#47
Pace73.6#64
Improvement+1.1#126

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#41
First Shot+4.9#59
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#97
Layup/Dunks+4.7#33
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#162
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement-0.6#222

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#68
First Shot+2.9#86
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#82
Layups/Dunks+0.4#152
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#56
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#200
Freethrows+1.0#110
Improvement+1.7#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 4.5% 5.6% 1.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.8% 42.6% 25.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.7% 42.4% 25.5%
Average Seed 8.9 8.8 9.3
.500 or above 91.4% 95.8% 80.2%
.500 or above in Conference 13.8% 17.1% 5.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.1% 5.2% 22.6%
First Four9.8% 10.4% 8.1%
First Round32.8% 37.3% 21.4%
Second Round15.5% 17.8% 9.6%
Sweet Sixteen4.1% 4.9% 2.0%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.5% 0.7%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

Next Game: South Carolina (Home) - 72.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 92 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 11
Quad 25 - 29 - 13
Quad 33 - 012 - 14
Quad 47 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 360   Maryland Eastern Shore W 102-63 99%     1 - 0 +20.8 +17.2 +2.6
  Nov 10, 2024 279   Southeast Missouri St. W 85-76 96%     2 - 0 -0.6 +5.7 -6.7
  Nov 13, 2024 123   California W 85-69 85%     3 - 0 +15.4 +1.9 +12.3
  Nov 16, 2024 289   Jackson St. W 94-81 96%     4 - 0 +2.9 +15.6 -13.2
  Nov 21, 2024 62   Nevada W 73-71 57%     5 - 0 +10.6 +6.5 +4.2
  Nov 22, 2024 128   Seton Hall W 76-60 78%     6 - 0 +18.3 +10.5 +8.7
  Nov 24, 2024 80   Drake L 70-81 64%     6 - 1 -4.1 +0.4 -4.3
  Nov 29, 2024 306   Tennessee Tech W 87-56 97%     7 - 1 +19.9 +8.1 +11.3
  Dec 04, 2024 134   @ Virginia Tech W 80-64 71%     8 - 1 +20.7 +13.1 +8.4
  Dec 08, 2024 65   TCU W 83-74 58%     9 - 1 +17.4 +12.5 +4.4
  Dec 18, 2024 349   The Citadel W 105-53 98%     10 - 1 +36.4 +33.5 +6.5
  Dec 21, 2024 302   Austin Peay W 85-55 97%     11 - 1 +19.1 +7.1 +10.9
  Dec 30, 2024 355   New Orleans W 100-56 99%     12 - 1 +27.5 +7.9 +15.0
  Jan 04, 2025 67   @ LSU W 80-72 48%     13 - 1 1 - 0 +19.1 +15.6 +3.8
  Jan 07, 2025 23   Mississippi St. L 64-76 42%     13 - 2 1 - 1 +0.5 -1.9 +2.0
  Jan 11, 2025 43   @ Missouri L 66-75 35%     13 - 3 1 - 2 +5.5 +2.3 +2.7
  Jan 15, 2025 76   South Carolina W 75-69 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 8   Tennessee L 69-74 30%    
  Jan 21, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 81-94 12%    
  Jan 25, 2025 17   Kentucky L 84-87 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 46   @ Oklahoma L 76-80 37%    
  Feb 04, 2025 5   @ Florida L 74-87 11%    
  Feb 08, 2025 35   Texas W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 11, 2025 2   Auburn L 76-86 19%    
  Feb 15, 2025 8   @ Tennessee L 66-77 15%    
  Feb 19, 2025 17   @ Kentucky L 81-90 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 25   Mississippi L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 26, 2025 22   @ Texas A&M L 70-78 23%    
  Mar 01, 2025 43   Missouri W 79-77 57%    
  Mar 04, 2025 38   Arkansas W 78-77 55%    
  Mar 08, 2025 30   @ Georgia L 71-76 31%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.3 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.1 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.4 1.6 0.1 7.2 9th
10th 0.4 4.5 3.9 0.4 9.2 10th
11th 0.2 3.6 6.6 1.5 0.1 11.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 2.6 7.8 3.4 0.1 0.0 14.1 12th
13th 0.1 1.6 6.9 6.2 0.6 0.0 15.5 13th
14th 0.1 1.3 5.2 6.1 1.4 0.0 14.0 14th
15th 0.1 0.7 3.1 4.1 1.4 0.1 9.4 15th
16th 0.3 1.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.2 16th
Total 0.4 2.0 6.3 11.9 17.3 19.6 16.4 12.4 7.5 3.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 23.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 26.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.6% 100.0% 3.7% 96.3% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 1.7% 99.9% 1.9% 98.0% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 3.9% 98.9% 1.2% 97.7% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 98.9%
9-9 7.5% 96.4% 0.7% 95.7% 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 96.4%
8-10 12.4% 85.1% 0.5% 84.6% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.1 3.1 3.2 1.3 0.0 1.8 85.1%
7-11 16.4% 55.7% 0.1% 55.7% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.4 4.1 0.1 7.3 55.7%
6-12 19.6% 21.1% 0.2% 20.9% 10.8 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.9 0.4 15.4 21.0%
5-13 17.3% 3.0% 3.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 16.8 3.0%
4-14 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 11.9 0.0%
3-15 6.3% 6.3
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18
Total 100% 37.8% 0.3% 37.6% 8.9 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 4.1 5.8 6.2 7.9 8.7 0.6 0.0 62.2 37.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%