Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +6.3 91
Results Rating +7.3 86
Consistency 0.17 285
Pace 71.6 100
Improvement +0.1 190

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 96 B- C+ B- D+ C-
Defense B- 84 B+ B D B- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 272 B+ 66% 39 +1.0 142
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 184 B- 41% 79 +1.4 105
Three Pointers 42% 158 C- 33% 215 +0.1 177
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 242 B- +2.9 87
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 98
Second Chance C+ 31.6% 142 C+ 1.05 139 C+ 0.33 125
Opponents' Steals B 8.1% 62
Other Turnovers C+ 7.1% 156
Turnovers B- 15.2% 89
Freethrows C- 0.29 240 D- 68% 324 D+ 0.19 284
Total Offense B- +3.0 96

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 50% 147 C+ 10.4% 144
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 312 C 5.0% 184
Three Pointers F 71% 357 F+ 1.9% 346
Total D 50% 308 C 5.6% 192


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 344 B 53% 51 -6.4 17
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 15 C 38% 169 +3.0 353
Three Pointers 41% 175 B 31% 61 -1.7 116
Shot Selection/Accuracy A -1.6 12 B -3.6 47
1st FG Attempt B+ 0.92 37
Second Chance B+ 25.9% 36 C+ 1.01 141 B 0.26 53
Turnovers from Steals C- 9.1% 204
Other Turnovers F 5.1% 359
Turnovers D 14.2% 326
Freethrows B 0.26 54 D 75% 315 B- 0.19 74
Total Defense B- +3.3 84

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 103 A 19.2% 12
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 196 C 5.2% 143
Three Pointers C+ 81% 110 B- 1.3% 80
Total B- 51% 96 B+ 7.9% 35

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 69 17.5 226
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 93 0.15 101
Consistency 0.12 179 0.12 190
Improvement +1.2 128 -1.1 246

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 99 90 77
Results Rating Rank 94 82 67
Conference Record 5 - 13 5 - 13 6 - 12
Conference Finish 14 13 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 4% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Florida (Away) - 2.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 62 - 12
Quad 24 - 46 - 16
Quad 33 - 39 - 19
Quad 45 - 014 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 343 North Alabama W 86 - 62 97% +5  80% 1 - 0 B +9 C +1 C- D- A A- +7 B+ C C
 Mon, Nov 10 10 Iowa St. L 80 - 96 10% -11  16% 1 - 1 C+ +4 A- +9 A- A+ F D+ -4 B D D
 Sat, Nov 15 289 SE Louisiana W 75 - 68 93% +5  69% 2 - 1 C- -3 D- -6 D+ D+ D B- +3 B+ A- F+
 Thu, Nov 20 99 Kansas St. L 77 - 98 54% -8  12% 2 - 2 F+ -16 C- -1 C+ F C F -14 F A- F
 Fri, Nov 21 51 New Mexico L 78 - 80 32% -2  24% 2 - 3 B +9 B +6 B D A+ B- +3 A- C- C-
 Mon, Nov 24 199 New Orleans W 81 - 78 OT 86% -4  24% 3 - 3 C- -2 D -6 D A- D- B- +3 B+ B C
 Fri, Nov 28 38 SMU L 81 - 87 OT 34% +1  53% 3 - 4 C+ +4 D+ -3 D D+ A+ A +8 A+ F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 148 @Georgia Tech W 85 - 73 59% +8  84% 4 - 4 A- +16 B +7 B- A C- A- +8 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 122 San Francisco L 62 - 65 63% -5  1% 4 - 5 C -0 D -5 D C- A+ B +4 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 101 Utah W 82 - 74 56% -6  17% 5 - 5 B+ +13 B+ +8 A+ F+ A- B +5 C+ A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 16 217 LIU Brooklyn W 87 - 83 88% +3  74% 6 - 5 C- -2 B+ +8 C+ A- A+ F -10 C- C F
 Sat, Dec 20 118 Memphis W 71 - 66 73% +4  86% 7 - 5 B- +5 C- -2 C+ D+ C- B+ +7 A+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 312 Alabama St. W 94 - 56 95% +18  96% 8 - 5 A+ +26 A+ +14 B A+ B A+ +12 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 27 @Texas W 101 - 98 OT 14% +1  65% 9 - 5 1 - 0 A +21 A+ +15 B- A+ B- B+ +6 A- B- D
 Wed, Jan 7 46 Oklahoma W 72 - 53 40% +5  71% 10 - 5 2 - 0 A+ +28 C+ +2 F+ A+ B+ A+ +27 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 23 @Kentucky L 68 - 92 12% -4  33% 10 - 6 2 - 1 C- -5 C+ +3 B+ B+ F F+ -8 C- F D+
 Tue, Jan 13 14 Alabama L 82 - 97 18% -5  41% 10 - 7 2 - 2 C +1 C+ +3 D+ C A+ C -0 A- B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 74 Mississippi L 67 - 68 56% +2  58% 10 - 8 2 - 3 C+ +4 D -6 F C A+ A +10 A A F
 Wed, Jan 21 34 @Texas A&M L 68 - 88 16% -10  13% 10 - 9 2 - 4 C- -3 C -0 B+ F C+ C- -3 A B+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 17 Vanderbilt L 56 - 88 20% -20  0% 10 - 10 2 - 5 F+ -17 F -17 F D+ F+ C+ +2 C+ B C-
 Wed, Jan 28 58 @LSU W 80 - 66 26% +18  99% 11 - 10 3 - 5 A+ +27 A- +11 A+ A- F A+ +16 A+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 44 @Missouri L 79 - 84 20% -8  3% 11 - 11 3 - 6 B +10 B +6 B+ F+ D+ B +5 B+ A+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 19 Arkansas L 68 - 88 20% -12  8% 11 - 12 3 - 7 D+ -5 D+ -4 C+ D- B C -1 C A+ D+
 Wed, Feb 11 16 Tennessee L 64 - 73 20% -9  0% 11 - 13 3 - 8 B- +6 D+ -3 B- D B A +9 A A- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 74 @Mississippi W 90 - 78 33% +12  98% 12 - 13 4 - 8 A +23 A+ +19 A+ F+ A+ B +4 B+ A F
 Wed, Feb 18 40 Auburn W 91 - 85 35% +7  82% 13 - 13 5 - 8 A- +16 A+ +20 A+ C- A+ D+ -3 A+ D- D
 Sat, Feb 21 95 @South Carolina L 89 - 97 40% -5  17% 13 - 14 5 - 9 C +1 A+ +15 B- A+ A+ F -14 F A- F
 Wed, Feb 25 14 @Alabama L 75 - 100 8% -23  0% 13 - 15 5 - 10 C- -3 C +0 C- A+ D+ C -1 F+ D+ A
 Sat, Feb 28 44 Missouri L 64 - 88 39% -23  0% 13 - 16 5 - 11 F+ -15 D- -8 A- D- F D- -7 D- C- C
 Tue, Mar 3 4 @Florida L 68 - 90 2%
 Sat, Mar 7 29 Georgia L 81 - 87 30%
Totals 13 - 18 5 - 13 +6 B- +3 C- B- C- B- +3 C- D- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B+ B- C- B- 36% 37% 42% C- B- C+ C+ C+ B- C- D- D+ B- B C B B 30% 29% 41% A B+ B+ C+ B D B D B-
1.13 66% 41% 33% +3 0 1.07 32% 1.1 .33 15% .29 68% .19 1.04 53% 38% 31% -4 -2 0.92 26% 1.0 .26 14% .26 75% .21
Nov
5		 North Alabama C A- F C+ C 40% 24% 36% D- C- A- F D- A A F B A- A+ C D C+ 26% 43% 31% A+ B+ A- F C C A+ A+ A+
1.20 68% 31% 35% +3 0 1.07 43% 0.7 .30 10% .37 67% .25 0.87 29% 35% 35% -8 -4 0.78 24% 1.3 .31 18% .20 58% .12
Nov
10		 Iowa St. A- C A+ B A- 33% 16% 51% B+ A- A+ B- A+ F B A B+ D+ C- F A+ B+ 51% 15% 35% D- B D+ D+ D D D F F+
1.06 56% 50% 36% +3 0 1.08 48% 1.1 .55 34% .28 79% .22 1.27 64% 63% 26% +3 +2 1.11 41% 1.1 .46 12% .37 76% .28
Nov
15		 SE Louisiana D- A D- C- C- 27% 31% 41% F+ D+ D+ C D+ D B- D- C B- C- C A+ B+ 29% 33% 38% A- B+ B+ A+ A- F+ B- F D
1.02 71% 31% 33% +1 -2 1.00 28% 1.1 .31 22% .40 70% .28 0.92 59% 37% 18% -9 -2 0.79 23% 0.7 .16 14% .28 89% .25
Nov
20		 Kansas St. C- B- A- D- C+ 33% 21% 46% C- C+ D- F F C A A A+ F F A+ F F 31% 27% 42% A+ F C A+ A- F A F B
1.03 59% 45% 29% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.9 .23 19% .38 78% .29 1.31 84% 24% 50% +14 -1 1.27 32% 0.8 .24 11% .16 91% .15
Nov
21		 New Mexico B A- B- C B+ 25% 27% 47% D B D- C+ D A+ F F F B- B+ A C- A- 38% 13% 48% B- A- C- C C- C- F D+ F
1.08 67% 44% 32% +2 -2 1.03 20% 1.0 .20 10% .20 54% .11 1.10 50% 29% 36% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.0 .32 14% .40 76% .30
Nov
24		 New Orleans D F A+ F D 30% 22% 48% D- D C A+ A- D- A+ F D+ B- A+ C+ C- B- 25% 39% 36% A+ B+ C- A- B C A F C+
1.05 38% 67% 27% -5 -1 0.91 34% 1.3 .45 18% .46 52% .24 1.01 43% 36% 35% -4 -3 0.88 36% 0.9 .31 19% .27 94% .26
Nov
28		 SMU D+ C- B- F D 29% 29% 43% D+ D F A+ D+ A+ A B A A B+ D- A+ A+ 21% 40% 39% A+ A+ A- F F C- D A+ C
1.01 56% 39% 26% -6 -2 0.87 20% 1.2 .24 9% .34 76% .26 1.09 54% 48% 25% -2 -4 0.90 31% 1.6 .49 14% .33 65% .22
Dec
3		 Georgia Tech B D A+ F B- 35% 23% 42% C B- D+ A+ A C- A- B+ A A- A+ D+ C A+ 35% 29% 37% B+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F C+ A- B-
1.13 50% 67% 27% 0 -1 1.00 26% 1.8 .47 17% .35 77% .27 0.97 32% 39% 35% -9 -1 0.83 31% 0.6 .20 7% .29 65% .19
Dec
7		 San Francisco D A- D- D- C- 22% 35% 44% F D C+ D- C- A+ F F F B F A+ A+ A+ 25% 24% 51% A A+ B- F F F A+ A+ A+
1.00 67% 32% 29% -4 -3 0.89 29% 0.9 .27 8% .14 25% .04 1.05 85% 25% 15% -11 -1 0.78 29% 1.7 .50 10% .18 60% .11
Dec
13		 Utah B+ B C- A+ A+ 48% 14% 38% B+ A+ D+ F F+ A- F D+ F B F A C C 36% 21% 43% B C+ A- A+ A+ A- F C- F
1.17 63% 38% 48% +10 +2 1.25 24% 0.6 .15 11% .15 67% .10 1.06 71% 30% 35% +3 0 1.09 25% 0.6 .16 20% .43 75% .32
Dec
16		 LIU Brooklyn B+ C+ D+ B B- 40% 25% 35% D- C+ D+ A+ A- A+ A+ A A+ F A F C- D 25% 32% 43% A+ C- A+ F C F A+ F+ A
1.21 59% 36% 37% +1 -1 1.04 31% 1.5 .47 13% .48 77% .37 1.16 47% 58% 35% +4 -2 1.05 22% 1.5 .32 8% .17 73% .12
Dec
20		 Memphis C- B+ D+ F C 39% 20% 41% B- C+ D+ D+ D+ C- A+ D- A- B+ A A+ A A+ 25% 24% 51% B A+ D- F+ F A+ C- B C
1.01 67% 33% 26% -2 0 0.98 30% 0.8 .24 21% .45 68% .31 0.94 46% 25% 27% -12 -1 0.76 41% 1.3 .54 26% .31 69% .21
Dec
29		 Alabama St. A+ B- A+ B B 41% 20% 39% C- B A+ B- A+ B F D+ F A+ A A A+ A+ 27% 36% 36% A+ A+ A A+ A+ C- F C+ F
1.35 64% 55% 38% +8 0 1.19 49% 1.2 .57 16% .24 71% .17 0.81 42% 25% 25% -14 -3 0.68 22% 0.3 .07 17% .59 68% .40
Jan
3		 Texas A+ B+ D+ C B- 32% 20% 48% C+ B- A+ B+ A+ B- A+ C+ A+ B+ F D+ A+ B+ 28% 32% 40% A+ A- A F B- D F B F
1.23 63% 33% 34% +1 0 1.03 41% 1.1 .46 13% .43 74% .32 1.19 81% 44% 22% +1 -2 1.00 30% 1.4 .43 12% .55 73% .40
Jan
7		 Oklahoma C+ B- B F D- 33% 37% 30% F+ F+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 22% 39% 39% A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ F A+ F
1.10 60% 41% 14% -7 -3 0.83 44% 1.1 .49 14% .49 71% .35 0.81 40% 39% 17% -14 -4 0.67 31% 0.8 .24 20% .48 64% .30
Jan
10		 Kentucky C+ A+ B F B+ 40% 24% 36% B- B+ B- A B+ F C- A- C F+ D+ B- F+ C- 43% 21% 36% C+ C- D- F F D+ A+ A A+
0.99 80% 42% 17% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.0 .29 22% .26 79% .21 1.34 67% 33% 40% +6 0 1.14 42% 1.6 .67 13% .23 64% .15
Jan
13		 Alabama C+ A F D+ C 25% 36% 39% F+ D+ C+ C- C A+ A C+ A C A+ B- D+ A 33% 12% 55% B A- A F B- F F D- F
1.07 65% 21% 31% -6 -3 0.84 29% 0.9 .27 5% .34 68% .23 1.26 47% 43% 38% 0 +1 1.03 26% 1.4 .37 7% .46 82% .38
Jan
17		 Mississippi D B F F F 38% 17% 45% B+ F C+ D+ C A+ B+ F C A B- F A+ B+ 16% 59% 25% A+ A B+ A+ A F A+ D- A+
0.96 60% 22% 17% -14 0 0.75 30% 1.0 .30 11% .37 61% .23 0.97 60% 54% 6% -1 -7 0.87 26% 0.8 .21 7% .15 80% .12
Jan
21		 Texas A&M C B- A+ D B+ 36% 24% 40% C B+ C+ F F C+ D+ F D C- A- A+ D+ A 45% 14% 41% B- A A- B- B+ F D+ F F
0.97 61% 58% 30% +4 -1 1.08 30% 0.5 .14 19% .26 67% .17 1.25 50% 25% 38% -3 +1 0.98 28% 0.9 .26 4% .36 96% .34
Jan
24		 Vanderbilt F D C+ F F 26% 25% 49% C- F D+ D+ D+ F+ D F F+ C+ F D- A+ C+ 40% 22% 38% C+ C+ A+ F B C- A+ F A+
0.76 50% 38% 19% -13 -1 0.74 23% 0.9 .20 23% .30 65% .19 1.19 79% 46% 26% +6 0 1.13 17% 2.0 .33 12% .17 91% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 LSU A- A F A+ A+ 38% 19% 43% B- A+ A+ D+ A- F A C+ A A+ B+ F A+ A+ 44% 22% 34% C+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F+ D+ A+ A
1.18 67% 22% 50% +10 0 1.23 45% 0.8 .38 24% .39 70% .27 0.97 55% 55% 18% -6 0 0.90 21% 1.3 .26 10% .38 52% .20
Jan
31		 Missouri B F A+ A A 26% 33% 41% D- B+ B+ F F+ D+ B- F C B C- C- C- B- 22% 27% 51% A+ B+ B A+ A+ F+ F F+ F
1.08 43% 56% 41% +6 -3 1.09 35% 0.4 .14 19% .30 67% .20 1.15 64% 38% 36% +3 -2 1.04 32% 0.7 .22 14% .52 76% .40
Feb
7		 Arkansas D+ C+ A+ F C+ 49% 25% 25% C+ C+ D+ F D- B C- D D+ C D+ D D- C- 41% 26% 33% B+ C B A+ A+ D+ A+ A A+
0.97 59% 50% 14% -4 0 0.95 25% 1.0 .25 16% .24 64% .15 1.25 68% 44% 40% +8 -1 1.18 31% 1.0 .31 10% .19 67% .13
Feb
11		 Tennessee D+ C+ D+ B B+ 25% 38% 36% F B- D- C- D B F+ F F A D A A A- 39% 39% 22% A+ A A+ D A- D+ B+ F C
0.92 57% 33% 35% -2 -3 0.93 18% 0.9 .15 16% .22 54% .12 1.04 65% 30% 27% -3 -2 0.92 35% 1.2 .41 16% .31 83% .25
Feb
14		 Mississippi A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 25% 45% C A+ F D+ F+ A+ B F C- B F A+ B- B+ 23% 33% 44% C+ B+ A- A A F C- C- D+
1.27 75% 54% 46% +17 -1 1.34 19% 1.0 .19 13% .36 59% .21 1.10 77% 26% 32% -1 -3 0.95 24% 0.9 .21 8% .32 76% .25
Feb
18		 Auburn A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 18% 31% 51% F A+ C- C- C- A+ C B- C+ D+ A+ A F A+ 29% 25% 46% A+ A+ C F D- D F D- F
1.35 80% 29% 54% +16 -3 1.29 27% 1.0 .27 9% .28 76% .21 1.26 33% 31% 42% -4 -1 0.92 40% 1.2 .50 12% .52 81% .42
Feb
21		 South Carolina A+ A C+ F+ C+ 31% 15% 54% B- B- B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A F F A- F F 35% 22% 43% B- F A+ F A- F F+ D- F
1.23 71% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 35% 1.5 .53 8% .45 57% .26 1.34 74% 33% 52% +16 0 1.33 15% 1.5 .23 8% .41 85% .35
Feb
25		 Alabama C C+ F C+ C 18% 25% 57% D+ C- C A+ A+ D+ F+ F F C B A+ F F 28% 2% 70% C- F+ D C+ D+ A A+ C A+
0.99 55% 13% 34% -6 -2 0.85 27% 1.6 .42 16% .19 50% .09 1.32 56% 0% 48% +13 +2 1.32 38% 1.1 .44 17% .21 77% .16
Feb
28		 Missouri D- A+ B- F A- 42% 21% 38% B+ A- D+ F D- F D+ F F D- A F F F 34% 32% 34% A+ D- F A- C- C D F F
0.93 75% 40% 28% +4 0 1.10 25% 0.6 .16 26% .26 54% .14 1.28 50% 60% 50% +12 -2 1.23 44% 1.0 .44 17% .42 83% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 5.7 0.6 6.3 11th
12th 17.2 20.7 0.1 38.0 12th
13th 43.7 3.9 47.6 13th
14th 8.1 8.1 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 69.0 30.4 0.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 0.6% 0.6
6-12 30.4% 30.4
5-13 69.0% 69.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 47.6%