Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#38
Expected Predictive Rating+11.0#55
Pace64.3#300
Improvement-2.0#318

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#54
First Shot+4.4#55
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#140
Layup/Dunks+4.5#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#237
Freethrows+0.8#126
Improvement-1.3#301

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#44
First Shot+5.8#29
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#189
Layups/Dunks+6.8#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#294
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#261
Freethrows+2.8#29
Improvement-0.7#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.3% 2.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 8.6% 8.7% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 18.9% 19.1% 3.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.7% 57.2% 27.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 55.1% 55.5% 25.1%
Average Seed 7.6 7.5 8.8
.500 or above 88.3% 88.8% 57.1%
.500 or above in Conference 63.3% 63.7% 35.9%
Conference Champion 4.4% 4.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.6% 2.7%
First Four6.0% 6.0% 5.6%
First Round53.8% 54.2% 25.9%
Second Round30.3% 30.6% 14.2%
Sweet Sixteen12.1% 12.3% 3.1%
Elite Eight4.9% 4.9% 1.5%
Final Four1.8% 1.8% 0.1%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 24 - 28 - 11
Quad 36 - 115 - 12
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 308   North Alabama W 75-49 97%     1 - 0 +14.8 -0.4 +15.7
  Nov 13, 2021 207   Montana W 86-49 92%     2 - 0 +32.0 +13.6 +19.9
  Nov 17, 2021 231   Detroit Mercy W 77-64 93%     3 - 0 +6.6 +7.0 +1.4
  Nov 21, 2021 134   Morehead St. W 66-46 86%     4 - 0 +19.2 +2.5 +19.6
  Nov 25, 2021 36   Louisville L 58-72 47%     4 - 1 -2.5 -8.6 +6.6
  Nov 27, 2021 83   Richmond W 82-71 OT 65%     5 - 1 +17.6 +7.9 +9.5
  Dec 02, 2021 319   Lamar W 81-58 99%    
  Dec 05, 2021 94   Minnesota W 69-61 77%    
  Dec 11, 2021 42   Colorado St. W 72-71 51%    
  Dec 14, 2021 141   Georgia St. W 78-66 87%    
  Dec 17, 2021 105   Furman W 74-65 81%    
  Dec 20, 2021 146   Winthrop W 78-69 80%    
  Dec 29, 2021 24   Arkansas W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 05, 2022 132   @ Missouri W 68-63 70%    
  Jan 08, 2022 69   @ Mississippi W 64-63 51%    
  Jan 12, 2022 159   Georgia W 76-63 88%    
  Jan 15, 2022 13   Alabama L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 19, 2022 14   @ Florida L 63-71 24%    
  Jan 22, 2022 69   Mississippi W 66-60 71%    
  Jan 25, 2022 12   @ Kentucky L 65-73 24%    
  Jan 29, 2022 17   @ Texas Tech L 62-69 27%    
  Feb 01, 2022 98   South Carolina W 75-66 77%    
  Feb 05, 2022 24   @ Arkansas L 69-75 30%    
  Feb 09, 2022 18   Tennessee L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 12, 2022 10   @ LSU L 66-75 22%    
  Feb 16, 2022 13   @ Alabama L 69-77 25%    
  Feb 19, 2022 132   Missouri W 71-60 84%    
  Feb 23, 2022 98   @ South Carolina W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 26, 2022 77   Vanderbilt W 70-63 72%    
  Mar 02, 2022 21   Auburn L 71-72 49%    
  Mar 05, 2022 80   @ Texas A&M W 64-63 54%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.2 4.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 2.7 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 3.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.1 3.7 0.7 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.3 3.0 4.7 1.1 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 5.7 1.9 0.2 10.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 5.6 3.8 0.3 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 4.4 4.7 0.5 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.5 4.8 1.0 10.2 9th
10th 0.5 2.6 3.5 1.2 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.7 1.0 0.0 5.7 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.4 0.8 2.2 4.3 7.1 9.4 12.4 14.2 13.9 12.2 9.5 6.7 4.1 1.7 0.9 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 95.1% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
15-3 68.0% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1
14-4 37.6% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
13-5 11.2% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 1.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
16-2 0.9% 100.0% 32.1% 67.9% 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 100.0%
15-3 1.7% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 3.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.1% 99.5% 13.6% 85.9% 4.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
13-5 6.7% 99.7% 9.3% 90.4% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 9.5% 97.4% 7.0% 90.4% 6.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.2%
11-7 12.2% 92.0% 4.1% 87.9% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.2 2.4 2.3 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.0 1.0 91.6%
10-8 13.9% 77.8% 2.7% 75.1% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.0 2.3 2.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.1 77.2%
9-9 14.2% 54.9% 1.1% 53.9% 9.8 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.2 2.1 0.7 0.0 6.4 54.4%
8-10 12.4% 28.2% 0.7% 27.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 8.9 27.8%
7-11 9.4% 6.3% 0.7% 5.6% 11.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 8.8 5.6%
6-12 7.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.0 0.3%
5-13 4.3% 4.3
4-14 2.2% 2.2
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 56.7% 3.7% 53.0% 7.6 0.8 1.5 2.6 3.8 4.8 5.5 7.2 7.7 7.4 6.8 6.4 2.3 0.1 0.0 43.3 55.1%