Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.8 #73
Expected Predictive Rating +7.7 #75
Pace 70.6 #130
Improvement +2.1 #95

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #97 C+ C+ B- C- C-
Defense #62 A- B D B- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #241 1.27 #68 +0.8 #149
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #133 0.84 #59 +1.8 #87
Three Pointers 41% #183 0.96 #256 -1.0 #220
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #129 +1.5 #129
Freethrows 0.29 #236 69% #273 0.20 #253
Second Chance 33.1% #110 1.02 #178 0.34 #120
Turnovers 15.6% #98
Total Offense +3.1 #97

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #347 1.06 #60 +6.5 #18
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #10 0.77 #217 -3.4 #358
Three Pointers 41% #182 0.83 #8 +3.8 #43
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #19 +6.8 #19
Freethrows 0.27 #62 74% #250 0.20 #83
Second Chance 25.9% #39 1.00 #149 0.26 #53
Turnovers 14.1% #331
Total Defense +4.7 #62

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #248 -3.3% #13
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.8% #110 -10.4% #30
Possession Length 16.4 #89 17.5 #234
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #119 0.14 #77
Improvement -0.2 #194 +2.3 #56

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 2.9% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 2.7% 0.5%
Average Seed 10.7 10.6 10.8
.500 or above 13.3% 27.6% 7.4%
.500 or above in Conference 3.3% 8.3% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.1% 3.0% 14.4%
First Four0.8% 1.9% 0.3%
First Round0.9% 2.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Home) - 29.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 53 - 11
Quad 23 - 66 - 17
Quad 33 - 19 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 328 North Alabama W 86 - 62 96% +5  1 - 0 +11 +4 C F+ A +6 B+ C+ C
 Mon, Nov 10 4 Iowa St. L 80 - 96 10% -11  1 - 1 +6 +12 A A+ F -5 B C- D-
 Sat, Nov 15 280 SE Louisiana W 75 - 68 94% +5  2 - 1 -3 -3 C- C- D+ +0 B+ B+ F+
 Thu, Nov 20 92 Kansas St. L 77 - 98 57% -8  2 - 2 -15 +2 C+ F C -15 F+ A F
 Fri, Nov 21 45 New Mexico L 78 - 80 35% -2  2 - 3 +10 +9 B D A+ +1 B+ C+ C-
 Mon, Nov 24 210 New Orleans W 81 - 78 OT 90% -4  3 - 3 -3 -5 D B+ D- +2 A- B- C
 Fri, Nov 28 39 SMU L 81 - 87 OT 40% +1  3 - 4 +4 +1 D C- A+ +4 A+ F+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 116 @Georgia Tech W 85 - 73 57% +8  4 - 4 +18 +12 B A+ D+ +6 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 97 San Francisco L 62 - 65 60% -5  4 - 5 +2 -1 D+ C A+ +2 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 105 Utah W 82 - 74 63% -6  5 - 5 +12 +9 A+ F A- +3 C+ A+ A
 Tue, Dec 16 195 LIU Brooklyn W 87 - 83 89% +3  6 - 5 -1 +10 C A- A+ -12 C C+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 96 Memphis W 71 - 66 70% +4  7 - 5 +7 +3 B- D+ C +5 A+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 316 Alabama St. W 94 - 56 96% +18  8 - 5 +25 +16 B- A+ B+ +9 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 31 @Texas W 101 - 98 OT 18% +1  9 - 5 1 - 0 +21 +18 B- A+ B- +2 A- B- D
 Wed, Jan 7 55 Oklahoma W 72 - 53 54% +5  10 - 5 2 - 0 +26 +5 F+ A+ B +22 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 26 @Kentucky L 68 - 92 15% -4  10 - 6 2 - 1 -5 +6 B+ B F+ -11 C- F D+
 Tue, Jan 13 20 Alabama L 82 - 97 27% -5  10 - 7 2 - 2 -1 +6 C- C A+ -5 B+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 59 Mississippi L 67 - 68 56% +2  10 - 8 2 - 3 +5 -2 F+ C A+ +7 A A F
 Wed, Jan 21 27 @Texas A&M L 68 - 88 16% -10  10 - 9 2 - 4 -1 +4 B F+ B -5 A B+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 13 Vanderbilt L 56 - 88 23% -20  10 - 10 2 - 5 -16 -13 F+ D+ D -1 C+ B- C-
 Wed, Jan 28 49 @LSU W 80 - 66 27% +18  11 - 10 3 - 5 +28 +15 A+ A- F +14 A+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 54 @Missouri L 79 - 84 31% -8  11 - 11 3 - 6 +8 +8 B+ F+ D+ +1 B A+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 23 Arkansas L 78 - 84 29%
 Wed, Feb 11 17 Tennessee L 68 - 75 26%
 Sat, Feb 14 59 @Mississippi L 69 - 73 33%
 Wed, Feb 18 28 Auburn L 75 - 80 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 91 @South Carolina L 72 - 73 45%
 Wed, Feb 25 20 @Alabama L 78 - 91 12%
 Sat, Feb 28 54 Missouri W 76 - 75 53%
 Tue, Mar 3 5 @Florida L 68 - 85 6%
 Sat, Mar 7 34 Georgia L 81 - 84 37%
Totals 14 - 17 6 - 12 +8 +3 C+ C+ B- +5 A- B D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.1 1.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.8 0.8 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.1 2.6 3.5 0.4 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 2.2 7.4 2.2 0.1 12.0 11th
12th 0.0 2.3 10.3 6.5 0.4 19.5 12th
13th 0.0 1.4 10.9 10.1 1.5 24.1 13th
14th 0.5 7.0 10.0 2.1 0.0 19.6 14th
15th 2.1 5.5 2.1 0.1 9.7 15th
16th 1.9 1.3 0.1 3.3 16th
Total 4.5 15.2 25.5 24.9 18.3 8.3 2.7 0.5 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.5% 41.2% 41.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 41.2%
9-9 2.7% 22.7% 0.4% 22.3% 10.8 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 2.1 22.4%
8-10 8.3% 3.4% 0.4% 3.0% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.0 3.0%
7-11 18.3% 0.2% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 18.2 0.2%
6-12 24.9% 0.1% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 24.9
5-13 25.5% 25.5
4-14 15.2% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 15.2
3-15 4.5% 4.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 10.7 98.8 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.4%