Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.6 #64
Expected Predictive Rating +8.3 #78
Pace 70.6 #149
Improvement +3.6 #33

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #71 C+ C- C+ B+ C-
Defense #76 A B- B- D- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #245 1.21 #116 -0.6 #198
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #136 0.88 #46 +2.1 #81
Three Pointers 42% #169 1.00 #198 +0.2 #177
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #137 +1.7 #138
Freethrows 16.1 #253 73% #158 11.8 #233
Second Chance 31.6% #146 1.11 #106 0.35 #119
Turnovers 14.5% #58
Total Offense +4.9 #71

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #354 1.08 #89 +7.3 #13
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #14 0.74 #167 -3.1 #347
Three Pointers 43% #126 0.86 #31 +2.4 #95
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #26 +6.6 #26
Freethrows 14.8 #62 76% #327 11.3 #105
Second Chance 26.2% #47 1.10 #251 0.29 #115
Turnovers 14.2% #316
Total Defense +3.7 #76

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #241 -3.8% #9
Shot Type Make % Effect 4.3% #118 -9.4% #37
Possession Length 16.2 #83 17.3 #197
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #182 0.14 #67
Improvement +2.0 #60 +1.6 #82

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.2% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.1% 21.4% 9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14.8% 21.1% 8.9%
Average Seed 9.2 9.1 9.4
.500 or above 36.9% 49.5% 25.0%
.500 or above in Conference 22.0% 31.7% 12.8%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 13.9% 7.3% 20.2%
First Four4.3% 5.7% 3.0%
First Round12.7% 18.3% 7.3%
Second Round5.0% 7.3% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Home) - 48.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 54 - 11
Quad 24 - 58 - 16
Quad 32 - 110 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 288 North Alabama W 86-62 95%     4.7   1 - 0 +13.8 +8.0 +5.3
  Mon, Nov 10 4 Iowa St. L 80-96 10%     -11.3   1 - 1 +6.7 +12.5 -4.7
  Sat, Nov 15 268 SE Louisiana W 75-68 94%     4.9   2 - 1 -2.1 -3.7 +1.3
  Thu, Nov 20 71 Kansas St. L 77-98 52%     -7.5   2 - 2 -13.0 +1.9 -13.5
  Fri, Nov 21 62 New Mexico L 78-80 49%     -2.0   2 - 3 +6.8 +8.5 -1.6
  Mon, Nov 24 235 New Orleans W 81-78 OT 92%     -3.9   3 - 3 -4.3 -5.0 +0.3
  Fri, Nov 28 30 SMU L 81-87 OT 39%     1.2   3 - 4 +5.4 +0.9 +5.2
  Wed, Dec 3 109 @Georgia Tech W 85-73 56%     8.0   4 - 4 +19.0 +12.3 +5.9
  Sun, Dec 7 95 San Francisco L 62-65 61%     -5.2   4 - 5 +2.6 +0.6 +1.6
  Sat, Dec 13 117 Utah W 82-74 69%     -6.1   5 - 5 +11.4 +9.2 +2.3
  Tue, Dec 16 207 LIU Brooklyn W 87-83 90%     2.7   6 - 5 -1.8 +7.5 -9.4
  Sat, Dec 20 75 Memphis W 71-66 65%     3.9   7 - 5 +9.6 +3.0 +6.6
  Mon, Dec 29 289 Alabama St. W 94-56 95%     18.4   8 - 5 +27.8 +15.2 +13.0
  Sat, Jan 3 46 @Texas W 101-98 OT 28%     1.4   9 - 5 1 - 0 +17.6 +17.6 -0.4
  Wed, Jan 7 44 Oklahoma L 78-79 49%    
  Sat, Jan 10 23 @Kentucky L 71-81 17%    
  Tue, Jan 13 12 Alabama L 83-90 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 70 Mississippi W 74-71 62%    
  Wed, Jan 21 43 @Texas A&M L 77-84 27%    
  Sat, Jan 24 7 Vanderbilt L 75-84 20%    
  Wed, Jan 28 38 @LSU L 73-81 24%    
  Sat, Jan 31 56 @Missouri L 76-80 36%    
  Sat, Feb 7 21 Arkansas L 79-84 34%    
  Wed, Feb 11 17 Tennessee L 71-76 31%    
  Sat, Feb 14 70 @Mississippi L 71-74 40%    
  Wed, Feb 18 29 Auburn L 77-80 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 88 @South Carolina L 72-73 47%    
  Wed, Feb 25 12 @Alabama L 80-93 12%    
  Sat, Feb 28 56 Missouri W 79-77 58%    
  Tue, Mar 3 14 @Florida L 71-83 13%    
  Sat, Mar 7 20 Georgia L 82-87 34%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 1.1 0.1 2.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.4 2.5 1.7 0.1 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 3.2 0.5 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.1 2.2 0.1 7.1 9th
10th 0.3 3.1 4.4 0.5 0.0 8.2 10th
11th 0.0 1.7 6.0 2.1 0.1 10.0 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 5.6 4.5 0.4 0.0 11.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 3.9 6.0 1.4 0.0 11.8 13th
14th 0.4 2.7 5.7 2.6 0.2 11.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.8 3.0 0.3 10.7 15th
16th 0.4 1.9 2.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.5 16th
Total 0.4 2.2 5.5 10.1 13.9 16.5 16.0 13.4 9.5 6.4 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 76.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 59.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 19.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.7% 99.3% 3.0% 96.3% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
12-6 1.7% 98.2% 4.8% 93.4% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 98.1%
11-7 3.5% 89.4% 0.7% 88.6% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.4 89.3%
10-8 6.4% 71.9% 0.5% 71.3% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.0 0.0 1.8 71.7%
9-9 9.5% 39.9% 0.3% 39.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.0 0.1 5.7 39.7%
8-10 13.4% 6.8% 0.2% 6.7% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 12.5 6.7%
7-11 16.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 16.0 0.3%
6-12 16.5% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 16.5
5-13 13.9% 13.9
4-14 10.1% 10.1
3-15 5.5% 5.5
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18
Total 100% 15.1% 0.3% 14.8% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 2.9 3.5 3.8 0.2 84.9 14.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%