Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#56
Expected Predictive Rating+9.5#55
Pace62.3#325
Improvement-1.3#329

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#157
First Shot-3.1#281
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#5
Layup/Dunks+0.7#136
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#270
Freethrows-1.8#306
Improvement+0.3#135

Defense
Total Defense+8.7#11
First Shot+7.3#14
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#57
Layups/Dunks+6.5#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#272
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#262
Freethrows+3.6#7
Improvement-1.6#353
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.6% 27.3% 12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.0% 24.7% 10.4%
Average Seed 10.0 10.0 10.6
.500 or above 98.3% 99.3% 94.2%
.500 or above in Conference 15.1% 17.8% 3.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.7% 8.8%
First Four10.7% 11.7% 6.6%
First Round19.0% 21.2% 9.5%
Second Round8.5% 9.7% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 3.0% 1.2%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.2% 0.4%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina (Away) - 81.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 13 - 7
Quad 23 - 56 - 11
Quad 33 - 010 - 12
Quad 49 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 245   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 63-44 93%     1 - 0 +11.9 -13.9 +26.2
  Nov 11, 2022 113   Akron W 73-54 73%     2 - 0 +22.1 +9.6 +14.3
  Nov 13, 2022 330   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 80-47 97%     3 - 0 +20.3 +6.6 +14.5
  Nov 17, 2022 275   South Dakota W 79-42 94%     4 - 0 +28.4 +10.2 +23.3
  Nov 21, 2022 8   Marquette W 58-55 26%     5 - 0 +19.0 -6.8 +26.0
  Nov 23, 2022 49   Utah W 52-49 48%     6 - 0 +12.9 -6.9 +20.2
  Nov 28, 2022 310   Nebraska Omaha W 74-54 96%     7 - 0 +9.2 -0.7 +11.2
  Dec 03, 2022 361   Mississippi Valley W 82-52 99%     8 - 0 +10.1 +11.9 +2.0
  Dec 11, 2022 160   @ Minnesota W 69-51 72%     9 - 0 +21.2 +7.3 +15.6
  Dec 14, 2022 326   Jackson St. W 69-59 95%     10 - 0 +0.6 -1.7 +3.1
  Dec 17, 2022 252   Nicholls St. W 68-66 93%     11 - 0 -5.5 -9.0 +3.5
  Dec 20, 2022 84   Drake L 52-58 62%     11 - 1 +0.2 -11.5 +11.1
  Dec 28, 2022 4   Alabama L 67-78 29%     11 - 2 0 - 1 +4.1 -3.1 +8.2
  Jan 03, 2023 1   @ Tennessee L 53-87 12%     11 - 3 0 - 2 -11.8 +1.4 -17.4
  Jan 07, 2023 96   Mississippi W 64-54 74%     12 - 3 1 - 2 +12.5 +0.0 +13.5
  Jan 11, 2023 102   @ Georgia L 50-58 58%     12 - 4 1 - 3 -0.8 -16.7 +15.7
  Jan 14, 2023 30   @ Auburn L 63-69 28%     12 - 5 1 - 4 +9.2 -1.3 +10.6
  Jan 17, 2023 1   Tennessee L 59-70 24%     12 - 6 1 - 5 +5.9 +3.9 +0.9
  Jan 21, 2023 44   Florida L 59-61 55%     12 - 7 1 - 6 +5.9 +2.2 +3.4
  Jan 25, 2023 4   @ Alabama L 63-66 15%     12 - 8 1 - 7 +17.5 +2.9 +14.5
  Jan 28, 2023 15   TCU W 81-74 OT 40%     13 - 8 +19.0 +12.3 +6.4
  Jan 31, 2023 225   @ South Carolina W 66-56 81%    
  Feb 04, 2023 51   Missouri W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 08, 2023 107   LSU W 65-57 79%    
  Feb 11, 2023 21   @ Arkansas L 60-67 25%    
  Feb 15, 2023 32   Kentucky L 63-64 51%    
  Feb 18, 2023 96   @ Mississippi W 61-60 54%    
  Feb 21, 2023 51   @ Missouri L 69-72 37%    
  Feb 25, 2023 40   Texas A&M W 64-63 55%    
  Feb 28, 2023 225   South Carolina W 68-53 92%    
  Mar 04, 2023 85   @ Vanderbilt W 64-63 51%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.2 2.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 1.4 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 4.5 0.4 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 7.6 2.4 0.0 11.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 9.2 7.7 0.5 18.9 9th
10th 0.9 7.7 10.2 1.6 0.0 20.5 10th
11th 0.4 5.2 9.7 3.0 0.1 18.4 11th
12th 0.2 2.6 5.6 2.2 0.1 10.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 2.0 1.1 0.1 4.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.1 12.8 21.3 24.3 19.7 10.9 3.7 0.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.6% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 4.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 3.7% 93.5% 4.9% 88.7% 8.2 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 93.2%
9-9 10.9% 74.3% 3.9% 70.4% 9.7 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.8 1.5 0.0 2.8 73.3%
8-10 19.7% 39.2% 4.1% 35.1% 10.7 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.0 0.3 12.0 36.6%
7-11 24.3% 14.3% 3.5% 10.8% 11.1 0.0 0.3 2.6 0.6 20.8 11.2%
6-12 21.3% 4.0% 2.7% 1.3% 11.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 20.4 1.4%
5-13 12.8% 2.8% 2.7% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.5 0.1%
4-14 5.1% 1.6% 1.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1
3-15 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 1.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 24.6% 3.3% 21.2% 10.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.3 6.7 9.4 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 75.4 22.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 4.8 6.5 30.0 40.1 20.9 2.5