Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.2 #68
Expected Predictive Rating +7.3 #79
Pace 70.4 #143
Improvement +3.5 #33

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #93 C B- B+ C- C-
Defense #60 A B- D B A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #240 1.28 #66 +0.9 #140
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #135 0.82 #81 +1.6 #93
Three Pointers 41% #178 0.93 #285 -1.8 #245
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #163 +0.8 #162
Freethrows 16.2 #248 73% #183 11.8 #230
Second Chance 32.3% #140 1.12 #87 0.36 #95
Turnovers 14.3% #55
Total Offense +3.6 #93

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #354 1.06 #66 +7.3 #12
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #8 0.78 #209 -3.9 #361
Three Pointers 41% #168 0.83 #8 +3.6 #55
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #17 +7.0 #16
Freethrows 14.5 #49 76% #308 11.0 #73
Second Chance 26.7% #49 1.06 #216 0.28 #96
Turnovers 14.4% #307
Total Defense +4.6 #60

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #241 -3.9% #6
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.3% #147 -10.1% #34
Possession Length 16.3 #85 17.5 #220
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #149 0.14 #69
Improvement +0.4 #153 +3.2 #34

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 14.8% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.6% 14.5% 4.2%
Average Seed 9.7 9.4 10.0
.500 or above 21.4% 39.5% 16.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.0% 19.8% 5.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 25.3% 11.2% 29.5%
First Four2.6% 4.8% 1.9%
First Round5.3% 12.3% 3.2%
Second Round2.1% 5.2% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 1.0% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Away) - 22.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 63 - 12
Quad 24 - 58 - 17
Quad 32 - 19 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 319 North Alabama W 86 - 62 96% +5  1 - 0 +11 +3 C F A +7 A- B- B
 Mon, Nov 10 10 Iowa St. L 80 - 96 14% -11  1 - 1 +4 +11 A+ A+ F -7 B D D-
 Sat, Nov 15 272 SE Louisiana W 75 - 68 94% +5  2 - 1 -2 -3 D+ D+ D +1 A B F
 Thu, Nov 20 82 Kansas St. L 77 - 98 54% -8  2 - 2 -14 +2 B- F C- -14 F A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 50 New Mexico L 78 - 80 39% -2  2 - 3 +9 +10 B+ C- A+ -0 A- C D+
 Mon, Nov 24 250 New Orleans W 81 - 78 OT 92% -4  3 - 3 -5 -7 D- B+ F +2 A A C+
 Fri, Nov 28 32 SMU L 81 - 87 OT 40% +1  3 - 4 +5 +1 D- D+ A+ +5 A+ F D+
 Wed, Dec 3 112 @Georgia Tech W 85 - 73 56% +8  4 - 4 +19 +12 B A+ D +6 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 102 San Francisco L 62 - 65 63% -5  4 - 5 +2 +0 D+ C A+ +1 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 105 Utah W 82 - 74 64% -6  5 - 5 +12 +9 A+ F A +3 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 215 LIU Brooklyn W 87 - 83 91% +3  6 - 5 -2 +9 C A- A+ -12 C- B- F
 Sat, Dec 20 89 Memphis W 71 - 66 68% +4  7 - 5 +8 +4 B D+ C +5 A+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 304 Alabama St. W 94 - 56 95% +18  8 - 5 +27 +16 B A+ B +11 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 39 @Texas W 101 - 98 OT 23% +1  9 - 5 1 - 0 +19 +18 B A+ B- +1 A- B- D+
 Wed, Jan 7 54 Oklahoma W 72 - 53 53% +5  10 - 5 2 - 0 +26 +6 F A+ B +22 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 24 @Kentucky L 68 - 92 16% -4  10 - 6 2 - 1 -5 +6 A- B+ F -11 C F D+
 Tue, Jan 13 16 Alabama L 82 - 97 26% -5  10 - 7 2 - 2 -0 +5 D+ C A+ -4 A+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 59 Mississippi L 67 - 68 57% +2  10 - 8 2 - 3 +5 -2 F C+ A+ +8 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 37 @Texas A&M L 75 - 83 23%
 Sat, Jan 24 13 Vanderbilt L 76 - 83 25%
 Wed, Jan 28 42 @LSU L 73 - 80 26%
 Sat, Jan 31 53 @Missouri L 74 - 79 31%
 Sat, Feb 7 23 Arkansas L 79 - 84 33%
 Wed, Feb 11 22 Tennessee L 70 - 75 32%
 Sat, Feb 14 59 @Mississippi L 70 - 74 35%
 Wed, Feb 18 30 Auburn L 76 - 79 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 79 @South Carolina L 71 - 73 42%
 Wed, Feb 25 16 @Alabama L 79 - 92 12%
 Sat, Feb 28 53 Missouri W 77 - 76 52%
 Tue, Mar 3 9 @Florida L 70 - 85 8%
 Sat, Mar 7 25 Georgia L 81 - 86 33%
Totals 14 - 17 6 - 12 +8 +4 C B- B+ +5 A B- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 0.5 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 1.8 0.1 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.4 3.4 1.1 4.9 9th
10th 0.1 2.4 3.9 0.1 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 5.7 1.8 8.6 11th
12th 0.4 5.1 5.4 0.3 11.1 12th
13th 0.2 3.3 8.1 2.1 0.0 13.7 13th
14th 0.2 2.5 8.4 5.3 0.2 16.5 14th
15th 0.1 1.9 7.3 6.7 1.0 0.0 17.0 15th
16th 1.6 4.9 4.9 1.1 0.1 12.6 16th
Total 1.7 7.0 14.8 19.9 20.6 16.2 10.9 5.5 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 100.0% 5.0% 95.0% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 0.8% 98.8% 3.8% 95.0% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 98.7%
10-8 2.4% 76.8% 1.3% 75.5% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.6 76.5%
9-9 5.5% 51.9% 0.5% 51.4% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.7 51.6%
8-10 10.9% 7.9% 0.4% 7.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.0 10.0 7.6%
7-11 16.2% 0.7% 0.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 16.1 0.7%
6-12 20.6% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 20.6
5-13 19.9% 19.9
4-14 14.8% 14.8
3-15 7.0% 7.0
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.7% 0.2% 6.6% 9.7 93.3 6.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%