Vermont
America East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#104
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#119
Pace65.0#283
Improvement-1.4#282

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#199
First Shot-0.7#195
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#188
Layup/Dunks+2.1#104
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#170
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#231
Freethrows-0.9#236
Improvement-0.1#187

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#52
First Shot+2.3#106
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#37
Layups/Dunks+1.6#129
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#170
Freethrows+2.9#27
Improvement-1.4#289
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.9% 45.1% 37.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 14.1
.500 or above 97.6% 98.4% 93.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.7% 98.9% 97.3%
Conference Champion 62.3% 63.7% 54.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round43.7% 45.0% 36.9%
Second Round7.1% 7.6% 4.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.7% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Home) - 84.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 36 - 47 - 7
Quad 416 - 223 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 112   @ Northern Iowa W 71-57 41%     1 - 0 +20.6 -1.0 +21.4
  Nov 13, 2021 52   @ Maryland L 57-68 24%     1 - 1 +0.7 -3.9 +3.7
  Nov 19, 2021 121   Yale W 61-53 67%     2 - 1 +7.9 -7.8 +16.2
  Nov 22, 2021 124   Oakland L 61-63 56%     2 - 2 +0.8 -7.4 +8.2
  Nov 23, 2021 245   Evansville W 58-49 79%     3 - 2 +4.6 -12.1 +17.4
  Nov 24, 2021 172   Appalachian St. W 65-63 67%     4 - 2 +1.7 +4.7 -2.6
  Nov 27, 2021 167   @ UNC Greensboro L 51-54 55%     4 - 3 -0.1 -7.1 +6.3
  Dec 01, 2021 230   Dartmouth W 66-55 85%    
  Dec 07, 2021 54   @ Providence L 61-68 24%    
  Dec 10, 2021 216   @ Brown W 64-60 63%    
  Dec 19, 2021 148   @ Northeastern L 59-60 49%    
  Dec 22, 2021 111   Colgate W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 02, 2022 298   Albany W 71-56 91%    
  Jan 05, 2022 195   New Hampshire W 66-57 78%    
  Jan 08, 2022 265   @ Hartford W 69-62 75%    
  Jan 12, 2022 219   Stony Brook W 70-60 81%    
  Jan 15, 2022 211   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 68-65 62%    
  Jan 19, 2022 254   @ NJIT W 65-59 72%    
  Jan 22, 2022 265   Hartford W 72-59 88%    
  Jan 26, 2022 219   @ Stony Brook W 67-63 63%    
  Jan 29, 2022 352   Maine W 70-47 98%    
  Feb 02, 2022 254   NJIT W 68-56 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 209   @ Umass Lowell W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 09, 2022 323   Binghamton W 73-56 92%    
  Feb 12, 2022 298   @ Albany W 68-59 76%    
  Feb 16, 2022 195   @ New Hampshire W 63-60 60%    
  Feb 19, 2022 211   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 71-62 79%    
  Feb 23, 2022 323   @ Binghamton W 70-59 82%    
  Feb 26, 2022 209   Umass Lowell W 71-62 80%    
  Mar 01, 2022 352   @ Maine W 67-50 94%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 4.3 11.0 15.9 14.9 11.0 4.3 62.3 1st
2nd 0.8 3.8 6.6 5.8 2.0 0.3 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.7 3rd
4th 0.3 1.5 2.1 0.8 0.0 4.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.0 3.2 5.7 9.5 12.8 17.1 17.9 15.3 11.0 4.3 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.3    4.3
17-1 100.0% 11.0    10.9 0.1
16-2 97.8% 14.9    13.8 1.1
15-3 88.7% 15.9    12.9 2.9 0.1
14-4 64.5% 11.0    6.4 4.2 0.5
13-5 33.8% 4.3    1.3 2.1 0.9 0.1
12-6 8.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 62.3% 62.3 49.6 10.7 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.3% 72.6% 72.1% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 1.2 1.8%
17-1 11.0% 64.4% 64.2% 0.2% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.9 0.6%
16-2 15.3% 53.6% 53.6% 13.2 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.5 2.6 0.4 7.1
15-3 17.9% 49.1% 49.1% 13.6 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.8 1.1 0.0 9.1
14-4 17.1% 42.7% 42.7% 14.0 0.3 1.7 3.4 1.8 0.1 9.8
13-5 12.8% 34.4% 34.4% 14.3 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.8 0.2 8.4
12-6 9.5% 29.2% 29.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.5 6.7
11-7 5.7% 25.2% 25.2% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.4 4.2
10-8 3.2% 14.0% 14.0% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 2.8
9-9 2.0% 13.0% 13.0% 15.6 0.1 0.2 1.7
8-10 0.8% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.1 0.7
7-11 0.4% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 43.9% 43.8% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 5.8 13.1 13.6 7.8 1.7 56.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 7.8 0.4 0.4 12.9 17.7 19.0 13.4 9.1 13.4 13.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 21.2% 12.0 21.2