Vermont
America East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.5 #183
Expected Predictive Rating -1.8 #194
Pace 61.9 #348
Improvement -0.2 #185

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #114 B D D B+ C
Defense #289 D- C- B- F B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #290 1.29 #61 -0.1 #182
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #234 0.81 #115 -0.6 #210
Three Pointers 48% #55 1.04 #142 +4.2 #55
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #91 +3.4 #94
Freethrows 14.2 #317 76% #73 10.8 #281
Second Chance 24.2% #330 1.09 #125 0.26 #292
Turnovers 14.5% #60
Total Offense +2.0 #114

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #252 1.29 #316 -0.9 #212
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #98 0.73 #150 -0.7 #238
Three Pointers 41% #192 1.17 #340 -3.1 #298
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #318 -4.8 #319
Freethrows 18.0 #220 73% #220 13.2 #225
Second Chance 27.9% #86 1.00 #131 0.28 #85
Turnovers 13.0% #345
Total Defense -3.5 #289

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #185 -1.0% #92
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.8% #82 10.3% #335
Possession Length 18.7 #317 17.4 #216
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #354 0.14 #70
Improvement -0.9 #249 +0.7 #144

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.6% 47.0% 37.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.6
.500 or above 98.7% 98.9% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.5% 96.1%
Conference Champion 72.2% 73.2% 52.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four6.8% 6.5% 11.4%
First Round43.5% 44.0% 33.0%
Second Round0.8% 0.8% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Binghamton (Home) - 95.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 419 - 521 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sun, Nov 9 239 @Brown W 89-84 2OT 51%     -3.5   1 - 0 +3.4 +7.6 -4.9
  Sat, Nov 15 223 @Northeastern W 85-74 46%     0.4   2 - 0 +10.5 +10.3 +0.2
  Tue, Nov 18 179 @Buffalo L 90-94 38%     -0.4   2 - 1 -2.3 +11.3 -13.5
  Mon, Nov 24 105 Liberty L 73-79 28%     -10.0   2 - 2 -1.5 +3.1 -4.8
  Tue, Nov 25 131 Rhode Island L 65-80 37%     -6.9   2 - 3 -13.1 +1.5 -16.1
  Wed, Nov 26 238 Princeton W 79-74 62%     7.4   3 - 3 +0.4 +13.2 -12.3
  Sun, Nov 30 77 Yale L 74-77 29%     -2.8   3 - 4 +1.3 +8.7 -7.7
  Wed, Dec 3 197 @Oregon St. L 58-80 42%     -15.6   3 - 5 -21.4 -7.9 -16.3
  Sat, Dec 6 269 @Pepperdine W 65-56 56%     0.7   4 - 5 +6.0 +1.2 +5.8
  Sun, Dec 14 241 Merrimack W 66-59 73%     7.1   5 - 5 -0.7 +4.1 -3.4
  Wed, Dec 17 180 Siena W 83-69 61%     12.2   6 - 5 +9.6 +9.3 +0.3
  Sat, Dec 20 214 Iona L 78-83 67%     -0.2   6 - 6 -11.0 +5.6 -16.7
  Tue, Dec 30 238 @Princeton L 69-75 OT 50%     -4.0   6 - 7 -7.6 +0.0 -7.8
  Sat, Jan 3 340 @New Hampshire W 80-61 75%     9.3   7 - 7 1 - 0 +10.5 +13.6 -1.3
  Thu, Jan 8 362 Binghamton W 80-62 95%    
  Thu, Jan 15 343 Maine W 72-59 90%    
  Mon, Jan 19 324 @Albany W 76-71 70%    
  Thu, Jan 22 299 @Umass Lowell W 76-73 63%    
  Sat, Jan 24 310 @Bryant W 71-67 64%    
  Thu, Jan 29 265 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 76-69 76%    
  Sat, Jan 31 355 NJIT W 77-62 91%    
  Thu, Feb 5 343 @Maine W 69-62 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 340 New Hampshire W 76-63 88%    
  Thu, Feb 12 362 @Binghamton W 77-65 86%    
  Sat, Feb 14 310 Bryant W 74-64 82%    
  Thu, Feb 19 265 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 73-72 56%    
  Sat, Feb 21 355 @NJIT W 74-65 79%    
  Thu, Feb 26 299 Umass Lowell W 79-70 81%    
  Tue, Mar 3 324 Albany W 79-68 85%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.4 11.0 19.1 20.1 13.5 4.7 72.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.0 5.4 2.5 0.4 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 2.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 3.0 6.6 11.4 16.7 21.6 20.5 13.5 4.7 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 4.7    4.7
15-1 100.0% 13.5    13.4 0.1
14-2 97.9% 20.1    18.7 1.4
13-3 88.3% 19.1    14.8 4.1 0.2
12-4 65.7% 11.0    5.9 4.5 0.6 0.0
11-5 29.6% 3.4    0.8 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
10-6 6.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 72.2% 72.2 58.4 11.8 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 4.7% 65.4% 65.4% 13.1 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.7 0.0 1.6
15-1 13.5% 59.1% 59.1% 14.3 0.0 0.9 3.8 3.1 0.1 5.5
14-2 20.5% 53.4% 53.4% 14.9 0.2 2.3 6.5 2.0 9.6
13-3 21.6% 48.0% 48.0% 15.4 0.0 0.6 5.1 4.7 11.2
12-4 16.7% 41.1% 41.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 2.1 4.7 9.8
11-5 11.4% 35.8% 35.8% 15.8 0.0 0.6 3.5 7.3
10-6 6.6% 31.4% 31.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5
9-7 3.0% 24.3% 24.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7 2.3
8-8 1.2% 18.6% 18.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 1.0
7-9 0.5% 22.2% 22.2% 16.0 0.1 0.4
6-10 0.2% 19.1% 19.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 46.6% 46.6% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.6 2.8 7.6 17.7 17.9 53.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.1% 100.0% 13.1 0.5 18.5 56.1 23.8 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%