Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +13.8 39
Expected Predictive Rating +13.3 44
Pace 67.7 209
Improvement +0.1 180

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 19 A- B B- A- D+
Defense B- 69 B C+ C C+ A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 259 A+ 72% 3 +3.5 70
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 91 A+ 51% 4 +5.0 11
Three Pointers 39% 219 C+ 35% 129 -0.3 187
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 283 A +8.8 4
1st FG Attempt A- 1.18 18
Second Chance B 35.5% 49 C+ 1.08 103 B 0.38 53
Turnovers B- 15.2% 76
Freethrows B+ 0.36 32 A- 78% 12 A- 0.28 12
Total Offense A- +10.0 19

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 344 B- 54% 79 +5.7 26
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 15 C- 40% 257 -3.7 360
Three Pointers 41% 189 B+ 30% 37 +2.6 74
Shot Selection/Accuracy A -1.6 14 B -3.1 62
1st FG Attempt B 0.93 47
Second Chance C+ 29.1% 120 C+ 0.99 128 C+ 0.29 110
Turnovers C 17.0% 178
Freethrows B- 0.28 85 D+ 74% 283 C+ 0.20 110
Total Defense B- +3.8 69

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.4 83 18.7 347
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 246 0.11 22
Improvement +2.4 #65 -2.2 #295

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 2% 4% 1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59% 74% 49%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 59% 73% 49%
Average Seed 9.5 9.1 9.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 85% 86% 84%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four18% 15% 19%
First Round52% 67% 41%
Second Round25% 34% 18%
Sweet Sixteen6% 8% 5%
Elite Eight2% 3% 2%
Final Four1% 1% 1%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Virginia (Neutral) - 40.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 33 - 11
Quad 27 - 19 - 13
Quad 35 - 014 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 327 IU Indianapolis W 118 - 102 99% +13  97% 1 - 0 C+ +2 A +12 A+ C C- F -13 F+ D- D+
 Fri, Nov 7 253 Purdue Fort Wayne W 94 - 68 97% +14  99% 2 - 0 A +18 A- +11 A+ B- F B+ +6 A- D B
 Tue, Nov 11 159 Appalachian St. W 75 - 53 94% +6  51% 3 - 0 A +19 A- +11 C- A A+ A +11 A D C-
 Sun, Nov 16 83 Notre Dame W 64 - 63 83% -3  19% 4 - 0 C+ +5 D- -7 C F C A +12 B A+ B+
 Thu, Nov 20 295 Western Michigan W 91 - 58 98% +25  100% 5 - 0 A +22 B- +5 B+ C- F+ A+ +17 A+ B+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 287 Mount St. Mary's W 113 - 60 98% +25  97% 6 - 0 A+ +43 A+ +30 A+ A+ B+ A +11 B A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 97 @Pittsburgh L 66 - 67 71% -4  19% 6 - 1 B- +7 C- -1 C- B- D A- +8 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 64 @Northwestern W 86 - 82 59% +0  51% 7 - 1 1 - 0 A- +15 A +13 A+ C B C+ +2 B+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 9 6 Illinois L 80 - 88 33% -4  8% 7 - 2 1 - 1 B +10 A- +11 B+ A+ A- C -0 C A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 54 West Virginia W 89 - 88 2OT 64% -4  13% 8 - 2 B +11 B +7 D+ A+ A+ B- +4 C B B
 Sat, Dec 20 28 North Carolina L 70 - 71 44% -4  13% 8 - 3 B+ +14 B +6 B D+ A+ A- +8 A C+ D+
 Tue, Dec 23 285 Grambling St. W 89 - 63 98% +13  94% 9 - 3 A- +16 A+ +17 A+ F+ D+ C+ +1 A- F+ B-
 Fri, Jan 2 122 @Rutgers W 80 - 73 78% -1  46% 10 - 3 2 - 1 B+ +13 A+ +17 A+ C+ D D+ -4 B- F+ D
 Mon, Jan 5 15 Nebraska L 69 - 72 44% -5  9% 10 - 4 2 - 2 B+ +13 B- +4 A F A+ A- +8 A A A-
 Thu, Jan 8 82 @Oregon W 72 - 62 65% +8  97% 11 - 4 3 - 2 A +20 A- +10 C+ A+ D A +11 A+ B F
 Sun, Jan 11 46 @Washington L 74 - 81 48% -0  48% 11 - 5 3 - 3 B- +7 A +12 B B C- D+ -5 C B F+
 Sat, Jan 17 34 UCLA W 86 - 74 60% +9  99% 12 - 5 4 - 3 A+ +23 A+ +26 A A+ A- C -1 B B F
 Tue, Jan 20 71 Minnesota W 82 - 74 OT 80% +2  70% 13 - 5 5 - 3 B+ +13 B+ +9 B+ A+ A B- +4 A- A- D-
 Fri, Jan 23 1 @Michigan L 62 - 74 9% -2  28% 13 - 6 5 - 4 A- +17 B +7 B A D+ A- +9 A+ F A+
 Mon, Jan 26 108 Penn St. W 84 - 78 88% +8  96% 14 - 6 6 - 4 B- +7 B+ +9 A+ F A+ C- -2 C- F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 26 @Wisconsin L 82 - 92 33% -4  24% 14 - 7 6 - 5 B +8 A +13 C+ A A+ D+ -4 D+ B F
 Thu, Feb 5 105 @Maryland W 82 - 62 73% +11  91% 15 - 7 7 - 5 A+ +27 A+ +21 A- A+ A- A- +9 D+ D+ A+
 Sun, Feb 8 1 Michigan L 61 - 82 19% -10  0% 15 - 8 7 - 6 C+ +2 C +2 B+ C+ C C -1 B- A+ D-
 Wed, Feb 11 47 USC W 89 - 82 71% -0  38% 16 - 8 8 - 6 A- +15 A+ +14 A+ C- B- C+ +0 A- C D-
 Sat, Feb 14 23 Virginia L 72 - 75 40%
 Tue, Feb 17 26 Wisconsin W 81 - 80 55%
 Sun, Feb 22 13 @Michigan St. L 70 - 78 23%
 Wed, Feb 25 25 @Iowa L 71 - 76 31%
 Sun, Mar 1 9 Purdue L 74 - 78 36%
 Wed, Mar 4 108 @Penn St. W 82 - 75 74%
 Sat, Mar 7 31 Indiana W 79 - 77 58%
Totals 19 - 12 11 - 9 +14 F +10 C A D+ B +4 C+ A- A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- A+ A+ C+ A 36% 25% 39% D+ A- B C+ B B- B+ A- A- B- B- C- B+ B 31% 29% 41% A B C+ C+ C+ C B- D+ C+
1.23 72% 51% 35% +9 -1 1.18 36% 1.1 .38 15% .36 78% .28 1.03 54% 40% 30% -3 -2 0.93 29% 1.0 .29 17% .28 74% .27
Nov
3		 IU Indianapolis A A+ A+ A A+ 43% 15% 41% C- A+ A F C C- A+ B A+ F F F B F 21% 27% 52% A F+ C- F D- D+ F C+ F
1.37 85% 57% 42% +20 +1 1.43 46% 1.0 .46 20% .77 79% .61 1.19 71% 67% 29% +7 -2 1.12 29% 1.3 .38 15% .27 70% .19
Nov
7		 Purdue Fort Wayne A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 10% 56% C A+ D- A+ B- F D+ C+ C- B+ F A+ A+ A- 38% 24% 38% B A- B- F D B D A C-
1.29 81% 60% 59% +31 +1 1.67 29% 1.5 .43 26% .24 77% .19 0.94 71% 15% 24% -6 0 0.89 19% 1.4 .28 18% .29 65% .18
Nov
11		 Appalachian St. A- A+ C- F C 21% 23% 55% F+ C- B- A+ A A+ A+ B+ A+ A A+ A- B- A- 24% 29% 47% A+ A A+ F D C- A+ C A+
1.22 70% 36% 27% -4 -2 0.91 33% 1.3 .44 7% .56 75% .42 0.86 42% 29% 30% -9 -2 0.80 21% 1.7 .35 15% .15 63% .10
Nov
16		 Notre Dame D- A D- C B- 21% 34% 45% F C F F F C A+ A A+ A A+ F C+ C 31% 50% 19% A+ B A+ A+ A+ B+ D- A+ C
0.96 70% 31% 33% 0 -3 0.96 12% 0.5 .06 15% .41 83% .34 0.94 47% 54% 33% +4 -4 1.02 23% 0.3 .06 19% .37 60% .22
Nov
20		 Western Michigan B- A+ A+ D+ A- 33% 16% 51% D+ B+ A+ F C- F+ A- A A A+ A- A A+ A+ 21% 42% 38% A+ A+ B+ B- B+ A C+ D+ C
1.25 83% 56% 32% +10 0 1.22 47% 0.7 .33 17% .38 78% .30 0.80 45% 27% 25% -12 -4 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 22% .27 73% .19
Nov
25		 Mount St. Mary's A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 22% 28% 50% F+ A+ B A+ A+ B+ D A+ C A F F A+ C+ 25% 23% 52% A+ B A+ A+ A+ F C+ A+ B+
1.54 77% 75% 48% +25 -2 1.48 33% 1.6 .52 11% .29 84% .25 0.82 69% 58% 19% -4 -1 0.90 19% 0.4 .07 18% .30 56% .17
Nov
28		 Pittsburgh C- B+ C F C- 36% 17% 47% C+ C- C+ B- B- D C A+ B A- D A+ B- B 36% 35% 29% A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ F B- B B-
1.01 65% 38% 27% -2 0 0.98 28% 1.0 .28 20% .29 87% .25 1.03 65% 26% 31% -3 -2 0.93 36% 0.4 .13 8% .27 63% .17
Dec
6		 Northwestern A A+ B D- A+ 50% 23% 27% B A+ C- B- C B B F C C+ C+ C A- A- 38% 20% 42% C- B+ F F F A+ B- F D+
1.20 85% 42% 29% +12 +1 1.27 30% 1.0 .30 15% .33 60% .20 1.15 58% 40% 29% -3 0 0.96 39% 1.8 .70 20% .31 89% .28
Dec
9		 Illinois A- A+ A- D A- 24% 26% 50% B- B+ D A+ A+ A- A+ C+ A+ C B+ C F D+ 23% 26% 51% A+ C A+ A+ A+ C F F F
1.15 69% 43% 30% +1 -2 1.00 20% 1.9 .37 9% .33 71% .24 1.26 55% 42% 46% +9 -2 1.17 28% 0.9 .25 13% .53 91% .48
Dec
13		 West Virginia B C+ A+ F C- 35% 32% 33% D- D+ A- A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ B- A+ B- F D+ 31% 27% 42% A+ C B- B B B F F F
1.07 57% 47% 15% -7 -2 0.85 32% 1.9 .62 12% .33 88% .29 1.06 38% 36% 50% +3 -1 1.06 29% 1.1 .32 18% .50 76% .38
Dec
20		 North Carolina B D+ A+ F A- 24% 45% 31% F B A- F D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A- B- B- B+ A 36% 15% 49% C A B- C- C+ D+ A+ A+ A+
1.08 50% 55% 27% +2 -4 0.98 33% 0.5 .18 9% .32 84% .27 1.10 58% 38% 31% -2 +1 0.98 32% 1.2 .37 11% .23 54% .12
Dec
23		 Grambling St. A+ A+ A+ B A+ 44% 20% 36% C- A+ A- F F+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ D- A A- 33% 26% 41% B+ A- D- D- F+ B- F C- F
1.33 85% 78% 38% +22 +1 1.47 43% 0.6 .24 21% .47 84% .40 0.94 40% 42% 26% -10 -1 0.80 33% 1.1 .36 22% .44 74% .33
Jan
2		 Rutgers A+ A+ F A+ A+ 48% 24% 29% B- A+ A+ F C+ D A+ A A+ D+ C F A+ B- 33% 29% 38% C- B- F B+ F+ D B- D C+
1.29 75% 20% 50% +11 0 1.24 50% 0.7 .35 19% .46 83% .38 1.18 56% 50% 22% -4 -1 0.92 47% 1.0 .47 13% .31 76% .24
Jan
5		 Nebraska B- D+ A+ A- A 30% 26% 44% B- A F F F A+ C F+ C- A- C- F A+ A 35% 14% 51% C+ A B- A+ A A- D F+ D-
1.01 56% 50% 38% +5 -1 1.09 12% 0.5 .06 12% .22 62% .13 1.06 67% 57% 27% 0 +1 1.04 24% 0.8 .18 18% .30 82% .25
Jan
8		 Oregon A- A+ F F C 40% 24% 36% B- C+ A+ B A+ D A+ B A+ A A+ D A+ A+ 28% 18% 54% B+ A+ C+ B+ B F D+ D D
1.15 71% 30% 27% -1 0 1.00 43% 1.0 .43 19% .45 78% .35 0.99 36% 44% 22% -15 0 0.72 35% 1.0 .35 11% .36 75% .27
Jan
11		 Washington A A+ D+ D+ B 33% 29% 38% C B A+ F B C- C+ A+ A- D+ D+ F C+ C- 28% 36% 36% A C A D- B F+ F F+ F
1.15 71% 33% 30% +1 -1 1.00 46% 0.7 .32 17% .28 87% .24 1.26 64% 50% 33% +6 -3 1.08 29% 1.2 .35 11% .40 83% .33
Jan
17		 UCLA A+ A+ A D+ A+ 23% 34% 43% F A A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ C D B- F C+ 17% 47% 36% A+ B D+ A+ B F C+ D+ C
1.38 82% 50% 30% +7 -3 1.11 48% 1.4 .68 16% .48 84% .40 1.18 67% 36% 42% +5 -5 1.02 36% 0.9 .33 8% .33 79% .26
Jan
20		 Minnesota B+ A+ A D- A- 33% 28% 39% C- B+ A A+ A+ A B C+ B B- F+ A+ B- B+ 29% 27% 45% A+ A- A C+ A- D- D F F
1.17 72% 47% 29% +4 -1 1.07 37% 1.1 .40 14% .30 72% .22 1.05 71% 23% 32% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.0 .24 13% .41 80% .33
Jan
23		 Michigan B C A+ F B+ 24% 34% 42% D+ B A- B+ A D+ D D- D- A- D- F A+ A+ 47% 5% 49% C- A+ D- F F A+ F A+ D+
0.95 50% 47% 24% -5 -3 0.86 33% 1.1 .36 20% .17 67% .12 1.14 70% 50% 19% -5 +3 0.98 44% 1.9 .85 22% .49 60% .29
Jan
26		 Penn St. B+ A+ A+ C A+ 27% 33% 41% F A+ F F F A+ A+ B- A+ C- A+ F F+ D 25% 23% 52% A C- F+ F F A+ F F F
1.23 77% 69% 35% +16 -2 1.29 19% 1.0 .19 13% .35 76% .27 1.14 45% 60% 39% +6 -1 1.11 36% 1.6 .56 26% .42 86% .36
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Wisconsin A D- A C- C+ 25% 27% 47% D+ C+ A B A A+ B- A+ A D+ D F C+ C- 47% 11% 42% D D+ A D- B F C+ F D
1.17 47% 50% 32% -1 -2 0.97 33% 1.1 .36 10% .28 89% .25 1.31 67% 67% 33% +7 +2 1.19 23% 1.3 .30 7% .32 90% .29
Feb
5		 Maryland A+ B+ A+ C- A 41% 29% 29% D A- B+ A+ A+ A- A+ F A+ A- F F B D 24% 20% 56% B+ D+ D C D+ A+ B A+ A+
1.33 65% 58% 33% +8 -1 1.17 35% 1.8 .62 13% .56 60% .34 1.01 70% 50% 30% +2 -1 1.05 39% 1.1 .43 26% .33 53% .18
Feb
8		 Michigan C D- B+ C A- 25% 35% 40% D+ B+ C B- C+ C A A+ A+ C B B F C 44% 22% 35% A+ B- D A+ A+ D- A+ F A+
0.92 42% 41% 32% -4 -3 0.88 25% 1.0 .25 18% .30 88% .26 1.24 58% 33% 47% +6 0 1.15 44% 0.8 .36 12% .12 86% .10
Feb
11		 USC A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ 24% 34% 42% F A+ B- D- C- B- A+ A+ A+ C+ C- C A- B 28% 44% 28% A+ A- C- C+ C D- F C F
1.21 75% 65% 33% +13 -3 1.22 31% 0.8 .23 16% .40 96% .39 1.11 64% 41% 29% +1 -4 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 14% .52 73% .38



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 0.4 1.1 4th
5th 0.5 2.8 0.3 3.6 5th
6th 0.2 4.4 2.4 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.1 4.8 9.9 0.6 15.4 7th
8th 0.0 2.1 13.1 4.3 0.0 19.5 8th
9th 0.5 9.7 10.6 0.4 21.1 9th
10th 0.3 5.9 12.7 2.4 0.0 21.3 10th
11th 1.5 6.2 2.2 0.1 9.9 11th
12th 0.5 0.3 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 2.3 12.9 26.7 31.1 19.5 6.6 0.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.9% 99.5% 1.1% 98.4% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 6.6% 96.4% 2.1% 94.3% 7.7 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 96.3%
12-8 19.5% 87.3% 0.8% 86.5% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.7 4.6 4.3 2.1 2.5 87.2%
11-9 31.1% 67.8% 0.6% 67.3% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.3 6.7 7.4 0.0 10.0 67.6%
10-10 26.7% 42.2% 0.4% 41.8% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.9 6.6 0.1 15.4 42.0%
9-11 12.9% 16.9% 0.2% 16.7% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 0.1 10.7 16.7%
8-12 2.3% 2.6% 2.6% 11.1 0.1 0.0 2.3 2.6%
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 58.9% 0.6% 58.3% 9.5 41.1 58.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 5.3 17.4 43.5 26.1 13.0
Lose Out 0.6%