Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.6#29
Expected Predictive Rating+8.4#63
Pace66.6#227
Improvement-1.6#339

Offense
Total Offense+9.5#9
First Shot+6.2#30
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#10
Layup/Dunks+1.8#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#17
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#215
Freethrows+1.0#102
Improvement-1.5#342

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#90
First Shot+2.8#87
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#146
Layups/Dunks+2.3#86
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#271
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#176
Freethrows+1.2#90
Improvement-0.1#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 2.1% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 8.4% 10.6% 2.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.2% 47.8% 27.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.1% 43.1% 21.1%
Average Seed 8.8 8.6 10.0
.500 or above 73.3% 80.6% 53.6%
.500 or above in Conference 28.7% 35.1% 11.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four9.1% 9.5% 8.0%
First Round38.6% 44.0% 23.9%
Second Round22.4% 26.0% 12.5%
Sweet Sixteen9.8% 11.5% 5.2%
Elite Eight4.5% 5.3% 2.2%
Final Four1.9% 2.3% 0.9%
Championship Game0.9% 1.0% 0.4%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Home) - 73.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 11
Quad 26 - 210 - 13
Quad 31 - 011 - 13
Quad 46 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 242   Robert Morris W 91-53 96%     1 - 0 +31.1 +16.3 +14.7
  Nov 10, 2022 280   Charleston Southern W 82-56 97%     2 - 0 +17.0 +2.0 +15.7
  Nov 16, 2022 343   Eastern Illinois W 65-43 99%     3 - 0 +7.5 -17.1 +23.4
  Nov 21, 2022 33   San Diego St. L 77-88 52%     3 - 1 +1.2 +8.2 -6.8
  Nov 22, 2022 56   Cincinnati W 81-53 63%     4 - 1 +37.2 +25.9 +15.8
  Nov 23, 2022 53   Texas Tech W 80-73 61%     5 - 1 +16.8 +23.1 -5.4
  Nov 30, 2022 24   @ Duke L 72-81 37%     5 - 2 +7.0 +7.7 -0.8
  Dec 03, 2022 325   St. Francis (PA) W 96-59 98%     6 - 2 +25.0 +18.4 +7.7
  Dec 08, 2022 20   Rutgers W 67-66 56%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +12.0 +10.6 +1.5
  Dec 17, 2022 26   North Carolina L 84-89 OT 49%     7 - 3 +7.9 +4.1 +4.6
  Dec 21, 2022 288   Maine W 95-61 97%     8 - 3 +24.5 +19.3 +5.9
  Dec 29, 2022 347   Alabama A&M W 90-59 99%     9 - 3 +16.2 +9.0 +6.1
  Jan 01, 2023 50   @ Northwestern W 73-57 50%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +28.6 +10.8 +18.4
  Jan 05, 2023 4   Purdue L 69-71 39%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +13.4 +13.8 -0.8
  Jan 08, 2023 31   @ Maryland L 73-80 40%     10 - 5 2 - 2 +8.1 +11.1 -3.2
  Jan 12, 2023 173   Minnesota L 67-70 92%     10 - 6 2 - 3 -5.8 -1.1 -4.9
  Jan 15, 2023 20   @ Rutgers L 64-68 OT 35%     10 - 7 2 - 4 +12.5 +3.1 +9.5
  Jan 18, 2023 94   @ Nebraska L 60-63 68%     10 - 8 2 - 5 +4.9 -8.5 +13.5
  Jan 21, 2023 30   Iowa W 93-77 61%     11 - 8 3 - 5 +25.8 +19.5 +6.1
  Jan 24, 2023 17   @ Illinois L 60-69 34%     11 - 9 3 - 6 +7.9 +0.9 +6.3
  Jan 28, 2023 21   @ Indiana L 70-86 35%     11 - 10 3 - 7 +0.5 +9.9 -10.7
  Feb 02, 2023 57   Wisconsin W 69-63 73%    
  Feb 05, 2023 58   @ Michigan W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 09, 2023 50   Northwestern W 72-67 71%    
  Feb 12, 2023 39   Michigan St. W 71-67 66%    
  Feb 16, 2023 30   @ Iowa L 78-81 39%    
  Feb 19, 2023 4   @ Purdue L 66-74 21%    
  Feb 23, 2023 45   Penn St. W 74-69 69%    
  Feb 26, 2023 17   Illinois W 74-73 55%    
  Mar 01, 2023 31   Maryland W 72-69 62%    
  Mar 04, 2023 39   @ Michigan St. L 68-70 44%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.5 1.2 0.1 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 0.8 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.4 0.2 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 4.2 2.0 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 6.9 0.5 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 5.1 4.3 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.7 9.0 1.0 0.0 11.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 7.4 6.0 0.1 14.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 5.3 9.7 1.3 16.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 5.1 8.7 3.1 0.1 18.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.2 0.8 0.0 5.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.8 7.8 15.4 22.1 22.5 17.2 8.5 2.7 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 2.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.3% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 2.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 2.7% 99.7% 11.9% 87.8% 4.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.7%
11-9 8.5% 97.9% 10.9% 87.0% 6.4 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.2 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.6%
10-10 17.2% 88.2% 9.6% 78.6% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 4.6 3.7 2.6 0.8 0.0 2.0 87.0%
9-11 22.5% 50.2% 8.5% 41.7% 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 3.5 6.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 11.2 45.6%
8-12 22.1% 12.4% 7.2% 5.2% 12.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 19.3 5.6%
7-13 15.4% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 14.4 0.0%
6-14 7.8% 6.3% 6.3% 15.4 0.3 0.2 7.3
5-15 2.8% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 2.7
4-16 0.6% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 42.2% 8.1% 34.1% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.5 5.2 5.8 4.5 6.2 8.0 1.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.4 57.8 37.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 2.7 5.3 32.2 51.5 9.4 1.8
Lose Out 0.1%