Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.9#27
Expected Predictive Rating+12.9#42
Pace67.8#192
Improvement+0.1#183

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#26
First Shot+7.0#28
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#140
Layup/Dunks+1.8#115
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#136
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#95
Freethrows+2.1#67
Improvement-0.1#189

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#29
First Shot+10.7#4
After Offensive Rebounds-3.5#357
Layups/Dunks+7.1#16
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#116
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#46
Freethrows-0.6#235
Improvement+0.3#177
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 6.3% 9.4% 2.1%
Top 6 Seed 29.5% 39.3% 16.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.4% 95.7% 83.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.0% 95.5% 82.8%
Average Seed 7.4 6.9 8.2
.500 or above 99.6% 100.0% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 80.1% 91.9% 64.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.9% 2.4% 10.5%
First Round88.1% 94.6% 79.3%
Second Round54.7% 61.3% 46.0%
Sweet Sixteen20.2% 24.3% 14.7%
Elite Eight7.9% 9.5% 5.8%
Final Four2.8% 3.5% 1.8%
Championship Game0.9% 1.1% 0.6%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Michigan (Home) - 57.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 9
Quad 24 - 412 - 13
Quad 32 - 014 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 36   Texas W 80-72 59%     1 - 0 +20.5 +11.8 +8.7
  Nov 11, 2024 187   Youngstown St. W 81-47 95%     2 - 0 +30.0 +8.0 +22.1
  Nov 15, 2024 18   @ Texas A&M L 64-78 34%     2 - 1 +5.0 +4.7 -0.3
  Nov 19, 2024 244   Evansville W 80-30 97%     3 - 1 +42.8 +9.4 +35.2
  Nov 22, 2024 176   Campbell W 104-60 94%     4 - 1 +40.8 +27.7 +11.3
  Nov 25, 2024 345   Green Bay W 102-69 99%     5 - 1 +18.3 +16.9 +0.2
  Nov 29, 2024 53   Pittsburgh L 90-91 OT 74%     5 - 2 +7.1 +12.6 -5.4
  Dec 04, 2024 16   @ Maryland L 59-83 33%     5 - 3 0 - 1 -4.7 -7.6 +4.3
  Dec 07, 2024 62   Rutgers W 80-66 79%     6 - 3 1 - 1 +20.4 +14.6 +6.6
  Dec 14, 2024 1   Auburn L 53-91 21%     6 - 4 -14.8 -7.8 -9.7
  Dec 17, 2024 233   Valparaiso W 95-73 97%     7 - 4 +15.6 +11.2 +3.0
  Dec 21, 2024 17   Kentucky W 85-65 43%     8 - 4 +36.6 +18.8 +18.5
  Dec 29, 2024 203   Indiana St. W 103-83 95%     9 - 4 +15.5 +14.8 -1.6
  Jan 03, 2025 19   Michigan St. L 62-69 54%     9 - 5 1 - 2 +7.0 -2.0 +8.9
  Jan 06, 2025 90   @ Minnesota W 89-88 2OT 72%     10 - 5 2 - 2 +9.7 +9.4 +0.2
  Jan 09, 2025 44   Oregon L 71-73 71%     10 - 6 2 - 3 +7.2 +0.8 +6.4
  Jan 14, 2025 14   @ Wisconsin L 68-70 32%     10 - 7 2 - 4 +17.8 +5.4 +12.3
  Jan 17, 2025 51   Indiana L 76-77 OT 73%     10 - 8 2 - 5 +7.4 +6.4 +1.0
  Jan 21, 2025 8   @ Purdue W 73-70 28%     11 - 8 3 - 5 +23.9 +14.6 +9.6
  Jan 27, 2025 58   Iowa W 82-65 77%     12 - 8 4 - 5 +24.3 +9.1 +15.2
  Jan 30, 2025 65   @ Penn St. W 83-64 65%     13 - 8 5 - 5 +29.8 +18.1 +12.5
  Feb 02, 2025 15   @ Illinois L 79-87 32%     13 - 9 5 - 6 +11.6 +11.8 +0.0
  Feb 06, 2025 16   Maryland W 73-70 52%     14 - 9 6 - 6 +17.3 +8.1 +9.2
  Feb 09, 2025 42   @ Nebraska L 71-79 53%     14 - 10 6 - 7 +6.2 +9.4 -3.6
  Feb 12, 2025 93   Washington W 93-69 86%     15 - 10 7 - 7 +27.2 +22.5 +4.8
  Feb 16, 2025 20   Michigan W 75-74 57%    
  Feb 20, 2025 60   Northwestern W 74-66 79%    
  Feb 23, 2025 26   @ UCLA L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 26, 2025 52   @ USC W 76-74 54%    
  Mar 04, 2025 42   Nebraska W 76-70 72%    
  Mar 08, 2025 51   @ Indiana W 74-72 54%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 0.9 3rd
4th 1.0 1.9 2.9 4th
5th 0.5 4.8 1.4 6.7 5th
6th 0.1 3.8 7.7 0.2 11.7 6th
7th 2.0 12.7 4.1 0.0 18.8 7th
8th 0.5 11.7 12.0 0.8 25.0 8th
9th 0.0 3.6 10.1 1.2 15.0 9th
10th 0.3 6.2 3.0 0.0 9.5 10th
11th 1.3 3.7 0.2 5.3 11th
12th 0.1 2.1 0.9 3.0 12th
13th 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.2 0.1 0.3 14th
15th 0.1 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.5 4.4 15.0 27.1 30.2 18.4 4.4 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 4.4% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 4.3 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 100.0%
12-8 18.4% 99.7% 7.5% 92.2% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.8 6.0 4.2 1.5 0.1 0.1 99.6%
11-9 30.2% 98.8% 4.7% 94.1% 7.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.6 6.2 9.4 7.4 2.9 0.4 0.0 0.4 98.8%
10-10 27.1% 94.4% 2.9% 91.5% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.6 6.5 7.2 4.8 0.8 1.5 94.3%
9-11 15.0% 72.7% 2.2% 70.5% 10.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 3.3 4.5 0.2 4.1 72.0%
8-12 4.4% 30.2% 1.1% 29.1% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.2 3.1 29.4%
7-13 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 9.0 0.0 0.5
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 90.4% 4.4% 86.0% 7.4 0.1 0.3 1.7 4.1 8.3 14.9 17.7 16.3 11.8 8.7 6.1 0.4 9.6 90.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 2.3 24.4 29.3 39.0 7.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 3.5 3.8 48.1 38.5 9.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 100.0% 4.3 18.1 43.6 29.8 7.4 1.1
Lose Out 0.3%