Preseason Rankings
Ohio St.
Big Ten
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.0#27
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.7#188
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.7#15
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#48
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.8% 3.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 9.5% 9.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 25.1% 25.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 42.4% 42.4% 12.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 71.2% 71.2% 37.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.8% 69.8% 34.8%
Average Seed 5.8 5.8 7.2
.500 or above 86.2% 86.2% 45.9%
.500 or above in Conference 66.9% 66.9% 37.5%
Conference Champion 5.6% 5.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.7% 16.7%
First Four4.3% 4.3% 4.2%
First Round69.1% 69.1% 37.5%
Second Round50.8% 50.8% 12.5%
Sweet Sixteen25.1% 25.1% 8.4%
Elite Eight11.3% 11.3% 4.2%
Final Four5.0% 5.0% 0.0%
Championship Game2.2% 2.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.0%

Next Game: IU Indianapolis (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 9
Quad 26 - 212 - 11
Quad 33 - 016 - 12
Quad 45 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 359   IU Indianapolis W 88-55 99.9%   
  Nov 07, 2025 192   Purdue Fort Wayne W 86-66 97%    
  Nov 11, 2025 201   Appalachian St. W 75-55 97%    
  Nov 16, 2025 63   Notre Dame W 74-65 79%    
  Nov 20, 2025 286   Western Michigan W 86-61 99%    
  Nov 25, 2025 269   Mount St. Mary's W 84-60 98%    
  Nov 28, 2025 77   @ Pittsburgh W 75-70 66%    
  Dec 06, 2025 71   @ Northwestern W 72-68 64%    
  Dec 09, 2025 15   Illinois W 80-79 52%    
  Dec 13, 2025 61   West Virginia W 72-66 69%    
  Dec 20, 2025 25   North Carolina L 77-78 49%    
  Dec 23, 2025 283   Grambling St. W 80-55 98%    
  Jan 02, 2026 81   @ Rutgers W 76-71 66%    
  Jan 05, 2026 60   Nebraska W 78-69 77%    
  Jan 08, 2026 28   @ Oregon L 73-75 43%    
  Jan 11, 2026 48   @ Washington W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 17, 2026 14   UCLA W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 20, 2026 87   Minnesota W 74-62 84%    
  Jan 23, 2026 6   @ Michigan L 72-79 27%    
  Jan 26, 2026 90   Penn St. W 81-69 85%    
  Jan 31, 2026 26   @ Wisconsin L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 05, 2026 40   @ Maryland L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 08, 2026 6   Michigan L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 11, 2026 29   USC W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 14, 2026 46   Virginia W 67-64 60%    
  Feb 17, 2026 26   Wisconsin W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 22, 2026 21   @ Michigan St. L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 25, 2026 32   @ Iowa L 77-79 44%    
  Mar 01, 2026 2   Purdue L 70-76 33%    
  Mar 04, 2026 90   @ Penn St. W 78-72 70%    
  Mar 07, 2026 34   Indiana W 76-72 64%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 5.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.9 1.8 0.2 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.4 0.6 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 3.6 1.4 0.1 6.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 5.8 11th
12th 0.2 1.4 2.8 0.9 0.1 5.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.7 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.9 4.1 5.8 7.8 9.5 10.2 11.2 10.5 9.8 8.5 6.9 4.6 2.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 97.9% 0.6    0.5 0.0
18-2 83.6% 1.4    1.1 0.4 0.0
17-3 56.4% 1.6    0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 28.0% 1.3    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 8.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 42.7% 57.3% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.7% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.8% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 1.9 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.6% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 2.6 0.8 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.9% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 3.3 0.4 1.3 2.3 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.5% 99.9% 7.8% 92.1% 4.4 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.3 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 9.8% 99.6% 5.3% 94.3% 5.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.5 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-8 10.5% 97.9% 2.6% 95.3% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.4 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.8%
11-9 11.2% 93.6% 1.4% 92.2% 7.3 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.4 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.7 93.5%
10-10 10.2% 81.4% 1.1% 80.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.0 1.9 81.2%
9-11 9.5% 53.9% 0.4% 53.4% 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.1 0.0 4.4 53.7%
8-12 7.8% 22.6% 0.3% 22.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.0 6.0 22.4%
7-13 5.8% 4.8% 4.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.5 4.8%
6-14 4.1% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 4.0 0.3%
5-15 2.9% 2.9
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 71.2% 4.6% 66.6% 5.8 3.8 5.7 7.5 8.0 8.7 8.7 8.4 7.0 5.5 5.1 2.7 0.1 28.8 69.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 80.2 19.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 80.4 19.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0