Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#25
Expected Predictive Rating+14.6#29
Pace66.3#252
Improvement+4.9#2

Offense
Total Offense+9.2#10
First Shot+7.6#15
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#88
Layup/Dunks+0.9#134
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#137
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#43
Freethrows+1.0#109
Improvement+0.4#128

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#66
First Shot+5.9#27
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#289
Layups/Dunks+2.5#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#26
Freethrows-1.4#261
Improvement+4.5#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 1.0% 0.1%
#1 Seed 4.1% 5.6% 1.8%
Top 2 Seed 10.4% 13.7% 5.2%
Top 4 Seed 30.2% 37.1% 19.0%
Top 6 Seed 52.2% 59.9% 39.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.3% 90.7% 76.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.1% 89.7% 75.4%
Average Seed 5.8 5.4 6.5
.500 or above 94.4% 97.2% 89.9%
.500 or above in Conference 81.5% 88.1% 70.7%
Conference Champion 10.5% 13.8% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 1.4%
First Four3.8% 2.6% 5.6%
First Round83.6% 89.6% 73.8%
Second Round57.5% 63.2% 48.1%
Sweet Sixteen28.9% 33.4% 21.5%
Elite Eight13.0% 14.9% 10.0%
Final Four5.9% 6.9% 4.2%
Championship Game2.4% 2.8% 1.8%
National Champion1.1% 1.3% 0.7%

Next Game: Penn St. (Away) - 61.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 9
Quad 25 - 213 - 11
Quad 34 - 016 - 11
Quad 45 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 165   Akron W 67-66 93%     1 - 0 -1.9 +3.4 -5.2
  Nov 12, 2021 180   Niagara W 84-74 94%     2 - 0 +6.0 +10.3 -4.2
  Nov 15, 2021 224   Bowling Green W 89-58 95%     3 - 0 +25.2 +8.9 +15.5
  Nov 18, 2021 37   @ Xavier L 65-71 48%     3 - 1 +7.9 +1.3 +6.5
  Nov 22, 2021 28   Seton Hall W 79-76 52%     4 - 1 +15.9 +16.0 +0.1
  Nov 24, 2021 14   Florida L 68-71 42%     4 - 2 +12.5 +4.4 +8.0
  Nov 30, 2021 5   Duke W 71-66 45%     5 - 2 +19.6 +5.0 +14.6
  Dec 05, 2021 67   @ Penn St. W 67-64 62%    
  Dec 08, 2021 164   Towson W 77-61 94%    
  Dec 11, 2021 29   Wisconsin W 68-64 64%    
  Dec 18, 2021 12   Kentucky L 71-73 41%    
  Dec 21, 2021 346   Tennessee Martin W 88-58 99.7%   
  Dec 28, 2021 285   New Orleans W 89-66 98%    
  Jan 02, 2022 107   @ Nebraska W 78-72 72%    
  Jan 06, 2022 34   @ Indiana L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 09, 2022 47   Northwestern W 75-68 74%    
  Jan 13, 2022 29   @ Wisconsin L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 16, 2022 67   Penn St. W 70-61 80%    
  Jan 22, 2022 107   Nebraska W 81-69 86%    
  Jan 27, 2022 94   @ Minnesota W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 30, 2022 2   @ Purdue L 69-79 19%    
  Feb 03, 2022 19   Iowa W 81-79 57%    
  Feb 06, 2022 52   Maryland W 74-66 77%    
  Feb 09, 2022 87   @ Rutgers W 70-66 66%    
  Feb 12, 2022 15   @ Michigan L 67-72 35%    
  Feb 15, 2022 94   Minnesota W 75-64 82%    
  Feb 19, 2022 34   Indiana W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 24, 2022 30   @ Illinois L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 27, 2022 52   @ Maryland W 71-69 57%    
  Mar 03, 2022 22   Michigan St. W 72-69 59%    
  Mar 06, 2022 15   Michigan W 70-69 54%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.3 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.0 10.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 4.3 4.6 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.9 5.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.8 4.8 1.5 0.1 12.6 4th
5th 0.8 4.1 5.2 1.5 0.1 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.2 1.7 0.2 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 3.6 2.2 0.2 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.7 2.2 0.3 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.8 3.3 4.8 7.3 9.9 12.3 13.3 13.3 11.5 8.9 6.5 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 96.9% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 91.9% 1.5    1.2 0.3
17-3 70.5% 2.4    1.6 0.7 0.1
16-4 50.6% 3.3    1.6 1.5 0.3
15-5 22.2% 2.0    0.5 1.0 0.4 0.1
14-6 4.9% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.5% 10.5 5.6 3.9 0.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 1.9 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 39.0% 61.0% 1.3 0.5 0.2 100.0%
18-2 1.7% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.4% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 2.0 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.5% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 2.6 1.1 2.0 2.1 1.0 0.3 100.0%
15-5 8.9% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 3.4 0.4 1.5 3.0 2.6 1.1 0.4 100.0%
14-6 11.5% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 4.4 0.1 0.4 2.7 3.2 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.3% 99.8% 8.8% 91.0% 5.4 0.1 0.9 2.2 3.8 3.4 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.8%
12-8 13.3% 98.9% 4.4% 94.5% 6.5 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.3 3.7 2.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.8%
11-9 12.3% 96.8% 3.2% 93.6% 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 2.8 3.2 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 96.7%
10-10 9.9% 85.9% 1.4% 84.5% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.4 1.4 85.7%
9-11 7.3% 60.7% 1.3% 59.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.0 2.9 60.2%
8-12 4.8% 25.7% 0.0% 25.7% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 3.6 25.7%
7-13 3.3% 4.0% 0.8% 3.2% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.2 3.2%
6-14 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 1.8 0.1%
5-15 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.7
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 85.3% 7.9% 77.4% 5.8 4.1 6.3 9.6 10.1 11.5 10.5 10.4 8.2 5.1 4.2 3.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.7 84.1%