Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.0 #36
Expected Predictive Rating +13.1 #42
Pace 67.7 #212
Improvement +0.3 #163

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #22 A- B- B- B+ D+
Defense #63 B C+ C C A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #233 1.45 #4 +4.2 #48
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #100 0.99 #7 +4.6 #18
Three Pointers 39% #220 1.04 #140 -0.4 #198
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #16 +8.4 #14
Freethrows 0.35 #42 78% #20 0.27 #19
Second Chance 34.7% #65 1.04 #179 0.36 #86
Turnovers 15.0% #89
Total Offense +9.4 #22

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #348 1.08 #83 +6.2 #20
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #17 0.81 #265 -3.4 #358
Three Pointers 42% #154 0.88 #27 +2.5 #90
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #44 +5.3 #42
Freethrows 0.29 #140 74% #268 0.21 #162
Second Chance 28.4% #99 1.03 #163 0.29 #110
Turnovers 16.6% #168
Total Defense +4.5 #63

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #267 -3.2% #14
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 17.1% #3 -7.0% #59
Possession Length 16.5 #91 18.7 #340
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #286 0.10 #18
Improvement +2.0 #84 -1.6 #281

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 2.0% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 9.0% 15.0% 4.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 74.8% 86.9% 66.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 74.5% 86.7% 65.8%
Average Seed 8.6 8.1 9.0
.500 or above 99.2% 99.9% 98.7%
.500 or above in Conference 81.0% 93.1% 72.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.0% 7.4% 13.6%
First Round70.0% 83.7% 60.3%
Second Round37.0% 47.1% 29.8%
Sweet Sixteen9.9% 13.0% 7.6%
Elite Eight3.4% 4.5% 2.6%
Final Four1.1% 1.5% 0.8%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Away) - 41.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 10
Quad 27 - 211 - 13
Quad 33 - 014 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 340 IU Indianapolis W 118 - 102 99% +12  1 - 0 +2 +14 A+ C C- -16 F+ D C-
 Fri, Nov 7 225 Purdue Fort Wayne W 94 - 68 96% +14  2 - 0 +19 +15 A+ B- F +4 B+ D+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 196 Appalachian St. W 75 - 53 95% +6  3 - 0 +17 +12 D+ A A+ +8 A D+ C-
 Sun, Nov 16 80 Notre Dame W 64 - 63 82% -3  4 - 0 +5 -3 C F C +9 B A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 20 274 Western Michigan W 91 - 58 97% +25  5 - 0 +24 +8 A- D+ D- +14 A+ B A-
 Tue, Nov 25 295 Mount St. Mary's W 113 - 60 98% +25  6 - 0 +43 +32 A+ A+ B +8 B- A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 28 94 @Pittsburgh L 66 - 67 69% -4  6 - 1 +8 +1 C C+ D- +7 A- A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 58 @Northwestern W 86 - 82 56% +0  7 - 1 1 - 0 +16 +16 A+ C B- +0 B+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 9 7 Illinois L 80 - 88 36% -4  7 - 2 1 - 1 +10 +13 B+ A A -4 C- A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 57 West Virginia W 89 - 88 2OT 65% -4  8 - 2 +11 +9 D A+ A+ +2 C- A A-
 Sat, Dec 20 28 North Carolina L 70 - 71 47% -4  8 - 3 +14 +8 B- D+ A+ +6 A B- D
 Tue, Dec 23 294 Grambling St. W 89 - 63 98% +13  9 - 3 +16 +17 A+ F C- -0 A F+ B-
 Fri, Jan 2 118 @Rutgers W 80 - 73 78% -1  10 - 3 2 - 1 +13 +20 A+ C+ D -6 C+ D- D+
 Mon, Jan 5 13 Nebraska L 69 - 72 42% -5  10 - 4 2 - 2 +13 +6 A F A+ +7 A A A
 Thu, Jan 8 79 @Oregon W 72 - 62 64% +8  11 - 4 3 - 2 +20 +13 B- A F+ +9 A+ B F
 Sun, Jan 11 45 @Washington L 74 - 81 48% -0  11 - 5 3 - 3 +8 +14 B- B- C- -7 C B- F+
 Sat, Jan 17 35 UCLA W 86 - 74 61% +9  12 - 5 4 - 3 +23 +29 A- A+ A -4 B B- F
 Tue, Jan 20 75 Minnesota W 82 - 74 OT 81% +2  13 - 5 5 - 3 +13 +12 B+ A+ A +1 A- B+ D-
 Fri, Jan 23 1 @Michigan L 62 - 74 10% -2  13 - 6 5 - 4 +16 +9 B- A- C- +7 A+ F A+
 Mon, Jan 26 116 Penn St. W 84 - 78 90% +8  14 - 6 6 - 4 +6 +10 A F A+ -4 C- F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 39 @Wisconsin L 79 - 81 42%
 Thu, Feb 5 106 @Maryland W 79 - 72 73%
 Sun, Feb 8 1 Michigan L 76 - 84 22%
 Wed, Feb 11 44 USC W 80 - 75 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 22 Virginia L 73 - 76 40%
 Tue, Feb 17 39 Wisconsin W 82 - 78 64%
 Sun, Feb 22 9 @Michigan St. L 67 - 76 20%
 Wed, Feb 25 24 @Iowa L 69 - 74 32%
 Sun, Mar 1 8 Purdue L 75 - 78 37%
 Wed, Mar 4 116 @Penn St. W 83 - 75 77%
 Sat, Mar 7 31 Indiana W 78 - 76 59%
Totals 19 - 12 11 - 9 +14 +9 A- B- B- +5 B C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 4.4 2.0 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 7.6 5.0 0.4 14.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 6.6 8.0 1.1 0.0 16.3 7th
8th 0.1 4.1 10.2 2.7 0.1 17.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.7 9.1 4.7 0.2 15.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 5.3 6.1 0.6 0.0 12.6 10th
11th 0.1 2.1 4.5 0.9 0.0 7.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.0 0.0 3.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 1.1 5.0 12.8 20.8 23.3 19.9 11.4 4.6 0.9 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 13.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 1.1% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 4.3% 95.7% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.9% 100.0% 2.6% 97.4% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
14-6 4.6% 100.0% 3.6% 96.4% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.4% 98.9% 2.2% 96.7% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.6 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 98.9%
12-8 19.9% 94.9% 1.2% 93.7% 8.1 0.0 0.4 1.4 4.0 5.8 4.5 2.3 0.5 1.0 94.8%
11-9 23.3% 86.3% 0.8% 85.5% 9.1 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.3 5.9 5.5 2.3 3.2 86.2%
10-10 20.8% 66.8% 0.3% 66.5% 9.8 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.1 4.5 4.5 0.1 6.9 66.7%
9-11 12.8% 35.0% 0.2% 34.8% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.9 0.1 8.3 34.9%
8-12 5.0% 9.9% 0.1% 9.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 4.5 9.8%
7-13 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 11.0 0.0 1.1 1.3%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 74.8% 1.0% 73.8% 8.6 25.3 74.5%