Central Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.4#65
Expected Predictive Rating+6.9#78
Pace62.6#321
Improvement-1.1#301

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#80
First Shot+1.3#128
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#51
Layup/Dunks-1.4#239
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#152
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#97
Freethrows+0.4#148
Improvement+0.7#72

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#51
First Shot+5.3#39
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#199
Layups/Dunks+1.6#106
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#8
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#151
Freethrows+0.4#153
Improvement-1.8#356
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.2% 15.2% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.5% 9.0% 2.0%
Average Seed 11.1 10.6 11.6
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 81.1% 94.2% 73.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.1% 5.4% 1.8%
First Round8.6% 12.3% 6.5%
Second Round2.9% 4.6% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.2% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 35.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 4
Quad 24 - 45 - 8
Quad 35 - 210 - 10
Quad 49 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 188   UNC Asheville L 95-98 2OT 87%     0 - 1 -6.9 +3.9 -10.2
  Nov 11, 2022 140   Florida St. W 68-54 81%     1 - 1 +12.9 -2.3 +16.1
  Nov 14, 2022 256   Western Illinois W 70-37 92%     2 - 1 +25.4 -2.0 +30.4
  Nov 18, 2022 35   Oklahoma St. W 60-56 OT 37%     3 - 1 +15.9 -5.5 +21.2
  Nov 20, 2022 93   Santa Clara W 57-50 62%     4 - 1 +12.3 -9.1 +22.0
  Nov 23, 2022 341   Evansville W 76-56 97%     5 - 1 +5.7 -4.6 +9.5
  Nov 27, 2022 34   Miami (FL) L 64-66 46%     5 - 2 +7.4 +0.8 +6.3
  Dec 04, 2022 145   Samford W 80-77 OT 82%     6 - 2 +1.6 -2.6 +4.0
  Dec 11, 2022 187   Tarleton St. W 75-49 87%     7 - 2 +22.3 +11.1 +14.7
  Dec 14, 2022 95   @ Mississippi W 72-61 53%     8 - 2 +18.7 +11.6 +8.3
  Dec 17, 2022 46   Missouri L 66-68 44%     8 - 3 +8.0 +0.8 +7.0
  Dec 21, 2022 199   Stetson W 73-58 88%     9 - 3 +10.8 +11.8 +2.7
  Dec 28, 2022 109   Wichita St. W 52-45 76%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +7.9 -1.8 +11.9
  Dec 31, 2022 1   @ Houston L 65-71 10%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +16.2 +11.3 +4.1
  Jan 04, 2023 205   @ East Carolina W 64-61 76%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +4.0 -1.6 +5.9
  Jan 08, 2023 167   SMU W 85-53 85%     12 - 4 3 - 1 +29.4 +20.5 +11.8
  Jan 11, 2023 38   Memphis W 113-104 2OT 49%     13 - 4 4 - 1 +17.7 +19.5 -3.7
  Jan 14, 2023 77   @ Tulane L 69-77 45%     13 - 5 4 - 2 +1.6 -9.4 +12.1
  Jan 21, 2023 129   @ South Florida L 72-85 63%     13 - 6 4 - 3 -8.0 +0.9 -8.7
  Jan 25, 2023 1   Houston L 71-82 21%     13 - 7 4 - 4 +5.7 +17.9 -13.8
  Jan 28, 2023 98   Temple L 70-77 OT 73%     13 - 8 4 - 5 -4.9 -6.1 +1.7
  Feb 04, 2023 56   @ Cincinnati L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 08, 2023 109   @ Wichita St. W 64-62 57%    
  Feb 11, 2023 235   Tulsa W 75-60 92%    
  Feb 16, 2023 38   @ Memphis L 67-73 29%    
  Feb 19, 2023 56   Cincinnati W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 22, 2023 129   South Florida W 71-62 80%    
  Feb 26, 2023 235   @ Tulsa W 72-63 80%    
  Mar 02, 2023 98   @ Temple W 65-64 52%    
  Mar 05, 2023 205   East Carolina W 73-60 89%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 1.3 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 5.3 4.4 0.2 10.2 3rd
4th 0.1 4.5 10.5 1.1 0.0 16.2 4th
5th 0.2 4.1 13.9 3.8 0.0 22.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 7.6 17.7 8.5 0.2 34.9 6th
7th 0.3 2.8 4.9 2.0 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.8 12.9 23.9 27.2 20.3 8.2 1.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.5% 75.5% 11.2% 64.3% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 72.4%
12-6 8.2% 28.8% 9.4% 19.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.1 5.8 21.4%
11-7 20.3% 13.4% 7.5% 5.9% 11.1 0.0 0.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 17.6 6.4%
10-8 27.2% 7.4% 5.9% 1.5% 11.4 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.0 25.2 1.6%
9-9 23.9% 5.2% 4.9% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 22.7 0.3%
8-10 12.9% 4.1% 4.1% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 12.4
7-11 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.6
6-12 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.2% 6.0% 4.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.2 5.1 2.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 89.8 4.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 75.5% 8.7 0.1 1.2 3.7 9.0 16.9 21.0 15.9 7.5 0.1