Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +10.5 52
Expected Predictive Rating +16.5 28
Pace 72.5 78
Improvement -1.3 248

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ #43 B- A B C C
Defense C+ #100 C+ B+ C C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 98 62% 79 +3.7 62
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 142 40% 110 +1.1 118
Three Pointers 36% 288 37% 64 -1.0 220
1st FG Attempt 1.09 75 +3.7 75
Second Chance 37.3% 26 1.21 16 0.45 10
Turnovers 14.8% 54
Freethrows 0.29 239 75% 87 0.22 193
Total Offense +7.9 43

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 252 56% 120 +2.1 106
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 166 41% 285 -0.8 255
Three Pointers 43% 121 33% 147 -0.5 205
1st FG Attempt 1.00 149 +0.8 153
Second Chance 23.7% 11 1.04 213 0.25 38
Turnovers 17.3% 158
Freethrows 0.30 172 72% 181 0.22 166
Total Defense +2.6 100

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.0 192 -0.2 130
Shot Type Accuracy +3.6 69 -0.6 158
Possession Length 15.4 32 18.6 343
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 55 0.15 99
Improvement -1.1 #253 -0.2 #201

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 1% 1% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67% 74% 56%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 67% 74% 56%
Average Seed 9.6 9.5 9.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 79% 89% 63%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four16% 16% 17%
First Round58% 65% 46%
Second Round20% 23% 16%
Sweet Sixteen3% 3% 2%
Elite Eight1% 1% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Home) - 62.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 7
Quad 25 - 39 - 10
Quad 36 - 016 - 10
Quad 45 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 117 Hofstra W 82 - 78 84% +1  65% 1 - 0 C+ +4 C+ +2 C+ A+ F C+ +1 C- A C
 Sat, Nov 8 14 Vanderbilt L 93 - 105 31% -12  3% 1 - 1 C+ +4 A+ +18 A+ A+ A- F -14 D- F F
 Tue, Nov 11 328 Florida A&M W 97 - 60 98% +22  97% 2 - 1 A+ +23 A +11 A A+ D- A +10 C+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 14 31 @Texas A&M W 86 - 74 25% -2  25% 3 - 1 A+ +30 A +12 A+ C D+ A+ +17 A+ D A-
 Mon, Nov 17 143 Oakland W 87 - 83 87% +5  92% 4 - 1 C+ +2 B- +4 C+ A C C- -2 C A- C
 Thu, Nov 20 99 Pittsburgh W 77 - 67 70% +5  80% 5 - 1 A- +15 A +13 C+ A+ C B- +4 A- B- B
 Tue, Nov 25 195 Quinnipiac W 102 - 91 92% +2  53% 6 - 1 B- +6 A+ +15 B+ B+ A F+ -11 F A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 360 VMI W 82 - 57 99% +9  70% 7 - 1 B- +6 C- -2 F D A A- +9 A- C+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 172 Towson W 86 - 61 90% +17  99% 8 - 1 A +21 A+ +19 A- A+ B B +4 C D- A+
 Wed, Dec 17 171 Mercer W 81 - 63 90% +10  94% 9 - 1 A- +14 C +1 D B C+ A+ +13 A B A+
 Sat, Dec 20 243 Florida Gulf Coast W 102 - 80 94% +5  57% 10 - 1 A- +14 A+ +19 A+ A B+ D -6 F A B+
 Tue, Dec 23 114 Florida Atlantic W 85 - 80 76% -1  48% 11 - 1 B +8 B- +5 B- A- C+ B- +3 B+ D D
 Sat, Jan 3 12 Kansas W 81 - 75 30% +2  67% 12 - 1 1 - 0 A +22 A+ +15 A- A+ A+ B+ +7 A+ B- B+
 Tue, Jan 6 59 @Oklahoma St. L 76 - 87 44% -6  4% 12 - 2 1 - 1 C +1 D -5 F A A B+ +7 D- A+ A
 Sun, Jan 11 45 Cincinnati W 73 - 72 57% +1  66% 13 - 2 2 - 1 B +10 A- +10 A+ A C- C -0 A- D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 101 @Kansas St. W 82 - 73 59% +7  93% 14 - 2 3 - 1 A- +17 B- +5 A- C- A A +12 A A C
 Sat, Jan 17 2 Arizona L 77 - 84 15% -6  5% 14 - 3 3 - 2 A- +15 B+ +8 C A+ B- B+ +7 C+ A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 20 8 @Iowa St. L 57 - 87 11% -15  3% 14 - 4 3 - 3 D+ -6 C- -2 D- A+ F D -7 B F F
 Sat, Jan 24 77 @Colorado W 95 - 86 50% +3  59% 15 - 4 4 - 3 A +19 A+ +22 A+ B- C- C- -3 D- A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 69 Arizona St. W 79 - 76 70% -2  28% 16 - 4 5 - 3 B +8 B- +5 D+ A A+ B- +3 D+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 16 Texas Tech W 88 - 80 32% +4  90% 17 - 4 6 - 3 A+ +23 A+ +20 B- A+ A+ B- +3 D- A+ A-
 Wed, Feb 4 5 @Houston L 55 - 79 9% -14  1% 17 - 5 6 - 4 C+ +2 C- -1 F B A+ C -1 D B+ D-
 Sun, Feb 8 45 @Cincinnati L 72 - 92 34% -11  0% 17 - 6 6 - 5 D+ -5 B+ +9 B- D- A+ F -14 F D- C
 Sat, Feb 14 56 West Virginia W 73 - 70 63%
 Tue, Feb 17 50 TCU W 78 - 75 60%
 Sat, Feb 21 110 @Utah W 83 - 79 63%
 Tue, Feb 24 21 @BYU L 81 - 91 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 42 Baylor W 83 - 82 54%
 Tue, Mar 3 59 Oklahoma St. W 88 - 84 66%
 Fri, Mar 6 56 @West Virginia L 70 - 73 40%
Totals 21 - 9 10 - 8 +11 B+ +8 B- A B C+ +3 C+ B+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B- C+ B B 42% 22% 36% C B- B+ A- A B C- B- C C+ C+ D+ C+ C 36% 21% 43% C+ C+ A C- B+ C C C C
1.20 62% 40% 37% +4 0 1.09 37% 1.2 .45 15% .29 75% .22 1.05 56% 41% 33% -1 0 1.00 24% 1.0 .25 17% .30 72% .21
Nov
3		 Hofstra C+ D+ F C+ C- 53% 9% 38% A+ C+ A+ B- A+ F A+ F A+ C+ F C A C 41% 22% 37% D C- C A+ A C F F F
1.13 50% 25% 35% -5 +3 0.98 47% 1.1 .53 22% .63 61% .39 1.07 70% 36% 28% +1 0 1.04 35% 0.7 .24 16% .40 88% .35
Nov
8		 Vanderbilt A+ B F+ A+ A+ 41% 27% 31% C+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ B A+ F F+ F C- D- 32% 12% 56% C- D- B- F F F A F B
1.25 62% 29% 56% +10 -1 1.20 29% 1.5 .43 16% .45 79% .35 1.42 74% 71% 36% +11 +1 1.25 30% 1.9 .57 8% .25 88% .22
Nov
11		 Florida A&M A D+ F A+ A 56% 16% 28% B+ A A+ A A+ D- F+ D+ F+ A B C- B+ B- 42% 16% 42% F+ C+ A+ A+ A+ C- F A+ C-
1.30 56% 22% 69% +11 +2 1.28 47% 1.1 .53 21% .27 75% .21 0.81 52% 38% 29% -6 +1 0.92 18% 0.3 .05 21% .38 55% .21
Nov
14		 Texas A&M A B+ F A+ A+ 33% 18% 49% C+ A+ F+ A+ C D+ C+ A+ A A+ A+ F+ A A+ 42% 8% 50% C A+ A- F D A- F C F
1.15 65% 22% 52% +13 0 1.27 21% 1.2 .25 21% .29 94% .27 0.99 38% 50% 28% -12 +2 0.82 27% 1.4 .38 19% .49 77% .38
Nov
17		 Oakland B- D A+ C C+ 38% 21% 40% C+ C+ A- B+ A C A+ C A+ C- A+ C F C 44% 15% 40% D+ C B- A A- C F+ F F
1.20 55% 64% 33% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.1 .45 15% .41 72% .29 1.14 43% 38% 43% -1 +1 1.02 28% 0.9 .25 14% .42 85% .35
Nov
20		 Pittsburgh A B C+ F C 47% 21% 32% C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ C D- F F B- B- A+ A- A 36% 9% 56% D A- C B B- B F F F
1.23 64% 40% 27% 0 +1 1.02 50% 1.5 .75 18% .23 58% .14 1.07 56% 25% 28% -7 +1 0.91 36% 0.9 .33 19% .41 86% .35
Nov
25		 Quinnipiac A+ A+ F B+ B+ 50% 19% 31% B- B+ B B+ B+ A A+ B- A+ F+ C A F F 31% 24% 45% B- F A+ A+ A+ D- F F F
1.30 72% 18% 39% +6 +1 1.16 38% 1.1 .43 13% .40 74% .29 1.16 56% 25% 52% +9 -1 1.18 17% 0.7 .11 14% .52 83% .43
Nov
29		 VMI C- A+ F F F 36% 24% 41% D+ F A+ F D A D+ A+ C+ A- A+ A+ A- A 27% 12% 61% C A- F A+ C+ B- F C- F
1.21 95% 14% 17% -3 -1 0.95 56% 0.6 .34 12% .28 82% .23 0.84 38% 17% 27% -14 0 0.73 36% 0.6 .22 19% .38 71% .27
Dec
7		 Towson A+ A A+ F A- 45% 27% 29% C- A- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ B A- F A C 33% 24% 43% D+ C C F D- A+ C+ A+ A
1.34 68% 62% 21% +5 0 1.12 42% 1.5 .62 14% .38 90% .34 0.95 47% 64% 25% -3 -1 0.93 35% 1.0 .35 23% .26 46% .12
Dec
17		 Mercer C D+ B C D+ 39% 30% 31% D- D A- C B C+ B- B- B- A+ B A+ B+ A 33% 29% 38% B+ A A+ D B A+ F C F
1.13 52% 44% 35% 0 -1 1.00 40% 0.9 .38 17% .28 76% .22 0.88 53% 23% 29% -8 -1 0.82 25% 1.1 .28 24% .44 75% .33
Dec
20		 Florida Gulf Coast A+ D F A+ A+ 36% 12% 52% B- A+ A+ C- A B+ F F F D A C- F F 30% 21% 48% D+ F A+ C+ A B+ A+ A+ A+
1.42 52% 29% 60% +17 +1 1.38 47% 1.0 .47 14% .19 58% .11 1.11 47% 42% 56% +13 -1 1.27 19% 1.0 .19 21% .09 60% .05
Dec
23		 Florida Atlantic B- A A F B 45% 24% 31% D+ B- B A- A- C+ B- D C+ B- B+ C- B- B+ 33% 18% 48% C+ B+ A F D D A+ D A
1.12 68% 46% 24% +2 0 1.05 32% 1.2 .37 16% .34 68% .23 1.05 50% 45% 31% -3 0 0.95 27% 1.6 .44 16% .19 75% .14
Jan
3		 Kansas A+ B- C C- A- 40% 23% 38% B- A- B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ B+ B- B+ A A+ 33% 25% 41% B A+ C+ B- B- B+ F+ B- D-
1.16 57% 33% 30% -4 0 0.94 32% 1.2 .39 9% .41 69% .28 1.08 59% 31% 29% -5 -1 0.90 31% 1.2 .36 17% .40 74% .29
Jan
6		 Oklahoma St. D D- A+ F F 42% 10% 48% B+ F C A+ A A B+ D- B- B+ A- C+ F F+ 50% 13% 38% C D- A+ A+ A+ A F D+ F
0.94 48% 50% 17% -15 +2 0.75 28% 1.5 .43 14% .33 65% .21 1.08 50% 33% 56% +8 +2 1.21 18% 0.4 .07 20% .54 77% .42
Jan
11		 Cincinnati A- A+ B A+ A+ 38% 33% 29% D A+ D+ A+ A C- F A+ D- C F+ D- A+ B+ 35% 35% 30% A A- B+ F D- F A+ B+ A+
1.09 72% 44% 43% +11 -2 1.21 19% 2.0 .38 21% .17 78% .13 1.07 70% 45% 12% -3 -2 0.91 28% 1.5 .42 10% .13 63% .08
Jan
14		 Kansas St. B- D A A+ A+ 36% 38% 25% F A- F A+ C- A C F D A F C- A+ A+ 40% 13% 47% D+ A A+ D+ A C C+ A+ B+
1.10 50% 48% 50% +7 -2 1.11 21% 1.7 .36 13% .28 61% .17 0.98 75% 38% 18% -4 +1 0.95 22% 1.1 .25 16% .24 60% .14
Jan
17		 Arizona B+ F B+ D- C 33% 32% 35% C+ C A A+ A+ B- C- A+ B+ B+ F F A+ D+ 33% 42% 25% A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ C+ F B F
1.03 40% 42% 29% -7 -2 0.83 33% 1.4 .45 17% .23 93% .21 1.13 82% 55% 23% +11 -3 1.17 29% 0.6 .16 16% .53 70% .37
Jan
20		 Iowa St. C- C- B F F+ 22% 20% 57% C+ D- A A A+ F F A+ F+ D D+ A+ B+ A- 51% 8% 42% F B D- F F F C- A+ B-
0.87 55% 40% 21% -11 -1 0.78 36% 1.2 .44 29% .13 83% .11 1.33 67% 25% 32% +2 +3 1.11 44% 1.3 .56 8% .35 57% .20
Jan
24		 Colorado A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 28% 26% 46% D+ A+ C A- B- C- A- D- B C- C+ D+ F F 33% 31% 37% A+ D- A+ F A+ C- D+ C- D+
1.35 71% 46% 61% +25 -1 1.48 27% 1.3 .35 17% .36 67% .24 1.22 59% 44% 53% +12 -2 1.23 14% 1.3 .17 13% .36 77% .28
Jan
27		 Arizona St. B- F A+ F D 43% 23% 34% C+ D+ B A+ A A+ C+ C- C+ B- C A- F D 30% 26% 44% A- D+ A+ C A+ C- B- B+ B+
1.13 43% 67% 22% -6 0 0.91 36% 1.3 .47 13% .31 74% .23 1.09 60% 31% 45% +6 -1 1.12 16% 1.2 .19 14% .33 70% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Texas Tech A+ A- F B+ B- 38% 42% 20% D+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ B- F F D+ D- 34% 11% 55% F+ D- A+ F A+ A- B+ A+ A
1.27 67% 26% 36% -1 -3 0.95 41% 1.6 .66 9% .35 82% .29 1.16 78% 67% 38% +13 +1 1.30 15% 1.3 .19 19% .21 58% .12
Feb
4		 Houston C- F+ F+ F F+ 24% 36% 40% F F C- A+ B A+ A- A+ A+ C F F A+ D- 35% 39% 26% B- D C A B+ D- A+ B A+
0.89 45% 25% 22% -15 -3 0.67 26% 1.2 .32 18% .39 85% .34 1.28 79% 67% 14% +11 -3 1.19 39% 0.8 .32 8% .14 75% .11
Feb
8		 Cincinnati B+ B- A- D- B 32% 30% 38% D B- B- F D- A+ C- A+ C+ F F C+ F F 29% 37% 33% A+ F A- F D- C F D F
1.03 56% 47% 29% -1 -2 0.96 27% 0.6 .17 11% .24 80% .19 1.31 73% 37% 59% +17 -3 1.29 26% 1.6 .41 16% .36 71% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.8 3rd
4th 0.8 2.2 0.4 3.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 6.5 3.6 0.1 11.0 5th
6th 1.3 11.7 10.6 0.9 24.5 6th
7th 0.4 9.4 12.7 1.1 0.0 23.5 7th
8th 0.1 4.4 11.7 2.1 18.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 7.9 2.9 11.9 9th
10th 0.1 2.6 1.9 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.2 1.1 0.1 1.4 11th
12th 0.4 0.1 0.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.8 5.0 14.7 25.3 27.3 18.9 7.0 1.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.0% 99.0% 2.1% 96.9% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9%
12-6 7.0% 94.7% 0.9% 93.9% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 2.2 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.4 94.7%
11-7 18.9% 88.4% 0.3% 88.1% 9.2 0.1 0.7 3.4 6.3 4.8 1.5 2.2 88.4%
10-8 27.3% 78.7% 0.1% 78.5% 9.8 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.6 9.3 4.8 0.0 5.8 78.6%
9-9 25.3% 63.4% 0.0% 63.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.2 7.0 0.0 9.3 63.4%
8-10 14.7% 33.1% 0.1% 33.0% 10.8 0.2 0.8 3.9 0.0 9.8 33.1%
7-11 5.0% 9.0% 9.0% 11.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 4.6 9.0%
6-12 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 11.0 0.0 0.8 1.3%
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 67.2% 0.2% 67.0% 9.6 32.9 67.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 95.7% 6.3 4.3 13.0 30.4 39.1 8.7
Lose Out 0.5%