Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +10.6 54
Expected Predictive Rating +15.5 33
Pace 72.8 70
Improvement -1.2 233

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 42 B A B C C
Defense B- 99 C+ B+ C+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 98 B 63% 76 +3.8 53
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 129 C+ 39% 125 +1.1 118
Three Pointers 36% 286 B 37% 57 -1.0 220
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 195 B +3.8 65
1st FG Attempt B 1.10 73
Second Chance B+ 36.8% 30 A- 1.20 21 A 0.44 14
Turnovers B 14.9% 65
Freethrows C- 0.29 227 B 76% 56 C 0.22 169
Total Offense B+ +7.8 42

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 57% 47 B+ 7.8% 35
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 119 B- 3.7% 86
Three Pointers D+ 80% 275 A- 0.1% 9
Total C+ 58% 120 B+ 4.1% 28

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 267 B- 55% 105 -2.5 97
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 139 D- 43% 325 +1.4 296
Three Pointers 43% 122 B- 32% 106 -0.1 173
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 117 C+ -0.9 145
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 133
Second Chance A- 24.5% 20 C 1.01 158 B+ 0.25 39
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 146
Freethrows C 0.30 174 C 72% 201 C 0.22 172
Total Defense B- +2.8 99

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 168 C+ 12.2% 125
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 210 D 2.6% 307
Three Pointers A- 75% 275 C+ 1.2% 9
Total B- 52% 109 C 5.5% 189

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.4 30 18.5 333
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 45 0.15 94
Improvement -1.6 #271 +0.4 #165

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 1% 1% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69% 76% 57%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69% 76% 57%
Average Seed 9.6 9.4 9.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 80% 93% 60%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four14% 13% 17%
First Round61% 69% 47%
Second Round21% 24% 15%
Sweet Sixteen3% 3% 2%
Elite Eight1% 1% 1%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Utah (Away) - 62.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 8
Quad 26 - 310 - 10
Quad 35 - 015 - 11
Quad 46 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 113 Hofstra W 82 - 78 83% +1  65% 1 - 0 C+ +4 C+ +3 C+ A+ F C+ +1 C- A C
 Sat, Nov 8 12 Vanderbilt L 93 - 105 29% -12  3% 1 - 1 C+ +4 A+ +19 A+ A+ A- F -14 D- F F
 Tue, Nov 11 333 Florida A&M W 97 - 60 98% +22  97% 2 - 1 A+ +23 A- +11 A A+ D- A +10 C A+ C
 Fri, Nov 14 33 @Texas A&M W 86 - 74 25% -2  25% 3 - 1 A+ +30 A +13 A+ C- D+ A+ +16 A+ D A-
 Mon, Nov 17 160 Oakland W 87 - 83 90% +5  92% 4 - 1 C +1 C+ +3 C A- C C- -2 C B+ C-
 Thu, Nov 20 99 Pittsburgh W 77 - 67 70% +5  80% 5 - 1 A- +15 A +13 C A+ C B +4 A- C+ B
 Tue, Nov 25 193 Quinnipiac W 102 - 91 92% +2  53% 6 - 1 B- +6 A+ +16 A- A- A F -11 F A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 358 VMI W 82 - 57 99% +9  70% 7 - 1 B- +6 D+ -2 F D A A +9 A C+ B
 Sun, Dec 7 166 Towson W 86 - 61 90% +17  99% 8 - 1 A +22 A+ +19 A- A+ B- B +5 C D A+
 Wed, Dec 17 165 Mercer W 81 - 63 90% +10  94% 9 - 1 A- +15 C +1 D+ B C+ A+ +13 A B A+
 Sat, Dec 20 251 Florida Gulf Coast W 102 - 80 95% +5  57% 10 - 1 B+ +14 A+ +19 A+ A B D -6 F A B+
 Tue, Dec 23 115 Florida Atlantic W 85 - 80 76% -1  48% 11 - 1 B +8 B- +5 B- A- C+ B- +3 B+ D- D+
 Sat, Jan 3 15 Kansas W 81 - 75 31% +2  67% 12 - 1 1 - 0 A +22 A+ +15 A- A+ A+ B+ +6 A+ B- B+
 Tue, Jan 6 59 @Oklahoma St. L 76 - 87 44% -6  4% 12 - 2 1 - 1 C +1 D -5 F A A A- +8 D- A+ A
 Sun, Jan 11 44 Cincinnati W 73 - 72 58% +1  66% 13 - 2 2 - 1 B +10 A- +10 A+ A- C- C -0 A- D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 89 @Kansas St. W 82 - 73 56% +7  93% 14 - 2 3 - 1 A +18 B +6 A C- A+ A+ +11 A A C
 Sat, Jan 17 3 Arizona L 77 - 84 16% -6  5% 14 - 3 3 - 2 B+ +14 B+ +8 C A+ B- B+ +7 C A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 20 7 @Iowa St. L 57 - 87 10% -15  3% 14 - 4 3 - 3 D+ -5 C- -2 D- A+ F D -6 B+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 72 @Colorado W 95 - 86 48% +3  59% 15 - 4 4 - 3 A +20 A+ +23 A+ B C- C- -3 D- A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 62 Arizona St. W 79 - 76 68% -2  28% 16 - 4 5 - 3 B +9 B +6 D+ A A+ B- +3 D+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 17 Texas Tech W 88 - 80 32% +4  90% 17 - 4 6 - 3 A+ +23 A+ +21 B- A+ A+ B- +3 F+ A+ A-
 Wed, Feb 4 5 @Houston L 55 - 79 9% -14  1% 17 - 5 6 - 4 C +1 C- -1 F B A C -1 D B+ D-
 Sun, Feb 8 44 @Cincinnati L 72 - 92 35% -11  0% 17 - 6 6 - 5 D+ -5 B+ +9 B- D- A+ F -14 F D- C
 Sat, Feb 14 53 West Virginia L 67 - 74 61% +3  62% 17 - 7 6 - 6 C +1 C +0 C+ C C- C +0 B A- C
 Tue, Feb 17 52 TCU W 82 - 71 61% +11  99% 18 - 7 7 - 6 A +19 A- +11 A C A- A- +8 A+ B- B-
 Sat, Feb 21 105 @Utah W 82 - 79 62%
 Tue, Feb 24 21 @BYU L 80 - 90 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 48 Baylor W 83 - 81 58%
 Tue, Mar 3 59 Oklahoma St. W 88 - 84 66%
 Fri, Mar 6 53 @West Virginia L 70 - 73 39%
Totals 20 - 10 9 - 9 +11 B+ +8 C+ B C B- +3 B B C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B C+ B B 42% 42% 36% C B B+ A- A B C- B C B- B- D- B- C+ 36% 22% 43% C+ C+ A- C B+ C+ C C C
1.20 63% 39% 37% +4 0 1.10 37% 1.2 .44 15% .29 76% .22 1.05 55% 43% 32% -1 0 0.99 25% 1.0 .25 17% .30 72% .21
Nov
3		 Hofstra C+ D F C+ C- 53% 9% 38% A+ C+ A+ B- A+ F A+ F A+ C+ F C A C 41% 22% 37% D- C- C- A+ A C F F F
1.13 50% 25% 35% -5 +3 0.98 47% 1.1 .53 22% .63 61% .39 1.07 70% 36% 28% +1 0 1.04 35% 0.7 .24 16% .40 88% .35
Nov
8		 Vanderbilt A+ B+ F+ A+ A+ 41% 27% 31% C+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ B+ A+ F F+ F D+ D- 32% 12% 56% C- D- B- F F F A F B+
1.25 62% 29% 56% +10 -1 1.20 29% 1.5 .43 16% .45 79% .35 1.42 74% 71% 36% +11 +1 1.25 30% 1.9 .57 8% .25 88% .22
Nov
11		 Florida A&M A- D+ F A+ A 56% 16% 28% B A A+ A- A+ D- F+ D+ F+ A B- C- B+ C+ 42% 16% 42% F C A+ A+ A+ C F A+ C
1.30 56% 22% 69% +11 +2 1.28 47% 1.1 .53 21% .27 75% .21 0.81 52% 38% 29% -6 +1 0.92 18% 0.3 .05 21% .38 55% .21
Nov
14		 Texas A&M A A- F A+ A+ 33% 18% 49% C+ A+ F+ A+ C- D+ C A+ A A+ A+ F+ A A+ 42% 8% 50% C A+ A F D A- F C- F
1.15 65% 22% 52% +13 0 1.27 21% 1.2 .25 21% .29 94% .27 0.99 38% 50% 28% -12 +2 0.82 27% 1.4 .38 19% .49 77% .38
Nov
17		 Oakland C+ D A+ C C 38% 21% 40% C C A- B A- C A+ C A+ C- A+ C F C 44% 15% 40% D+ C B- A B+ C- F F F
1.20 55% 64% 33% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.1 .45 15% .41 72% .29 1.14 43% 38% 43% -1 +1 1.02 28% 0.9 .25 14% .42 85% .35
Nov
20		 Pittsburgh A B C+ F C 47% 21% 32% C+ C A+ A+ A+ C D F F B B- A+ A- A 36% 9% 56% D A- C- B C+ B F F F
1.23 64% 40% 27% 0 +1 1.02 50% 1.5 .75 18% .23 58% .14 1.07 56% 25% 28% -7 +1 0.91 36% 0.9 .33 19% .41 86% .35
Nov
25		 Quinnipiac A+ A+ F B+ A- 50% 19% 31% B- A- B B+ A- A A+ C+ A+ F C A F F 31% 24% 45% C+ F A+ A+ A+ D- F F F
1.30 72% 18% 39% +6 +1 1.16 38% 1.1 .43 13% .40 74% .29 1.16 56% 25% 52% +9 -1 1.18 17% 0.7 .11 14% .52 83% .43
Nov
29		 VMI D+ A+ F F F 36% 24% 41% D+ F A+ F D A D+ A+ C+ A A+ A+ A- A 27% 12% 61% C A F A+ C+ B F C F
1.21 95% 14% 17% -3 -1 0.95 56% 0.6 .34 12% .28 82% .23 0.84 38% 17% 27% -14 0 0.73 36% 0.6 .22 19% .38 71% .27
Dec
7		 Towson A+ A A+ F A 45% 27% 29% C A- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ B A- F A C+ 33% 24% 43% D+ C C+ F+ D A+ C+ A+ A
1.34 68% 62% 21% +5 0 1.12 42% 1.5 .62 14% .38 90% .34 0.95 47% 64% 25% -3 -1 0.93 35% 1.0 .35 23% .26 46% .12
Dec
17		 Mercer C D+ B C C- 39% 30% 31% D- D+ A- C- B C+ B- C+ B- A+ B A+ B+ A 33% 29% 38% B+ A A D B A+ F C F
1.13 52% 44% 35% 0 -1 1.00 40% 0.9 .38 17% .28 76% .22 0.88 53% 23% 29% -8 -1 0.82 25% 1.1 .28 24% .44 75% .33
Dec
20		 Florida Gulf Coast A+ D F A+ A+ 36% 12% 52% B- A+ A+ C- A B F F F D A C- F F 30% 21% 48% D+ F A+ C+ A B+ A+ A+ A+
1.42 52% 29% 60% +17 +1 1.38 47% 1.0 .47 14% .19 58% .11 1.11 47% 42% 56% +13 -1 1.27 19% 1.0 .19 21% .09 60% .05
Dec
23		 Florida Atlantic B- A A F B 45% 24% 31% D+ B- B A- A- C+ B D C+ B- B+ C- B- B+ 33% 18% 48% C+ B+ A- F D- D+ A+ D A
1.12 68% 46% 24% +2 0 1.05 32% 1.2 .37 16% .34 68% .23 1.05 50% 45% 31% -3 0 0.95 27% 1.6 .44 16% .19 75% .14
Jan
3		 Kansas A+ B- C- C- A- 40% 23% 38% B- A- B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ B+ B- B+ A A+ 33% 25% 41% B A+ C+ B- B- B+ F B- D-
1.16 57% 33% 30% -4 0 0.94 32% 1.2 .39 9% .41 69% .28 1.08 59% 31% 29% -5 -1 0.90 31% 1.2 .36 17% .40 74% .29
Jan
6		 Oklahoma St. D D- A+ F F 42% 10% 48% B F C A+ A A B+ F+ B- A- A- B- F F+ 50% 13% 38% C D- A+ A+ A+ A F D F
0.94 48% 50% 17% -15 +2 0.75 28% 1.5 .43 14% .33 65% .21 1.08 50% 33% 56% +8 +2 1.21 18% 0.4 .07 20% .54 77% .42
Jan
11		 Cincinnati A- A+ B A+ A+ 38% 33% 29% D A+ D A+ A- C- F A+ D- C F+ D- A+ B+ 35% 35% 30% A A- B+ F D- F A+ A- A+
1.09 72% 44% 43% +11 -2 1.21 19% 2.0 .38 21% .17 78% .13 1.07 70% 45% 12% -3 -2 0.91 28% 1.5 .42 10% .13 63% .08
Jan
14		 Kansas St. B D A A+ A+ 36% 38% 25% F A F A+ C- A+ C- F D A+ F C- A+ A+ 40% 13% 47% C- A A+ C- A C B- A+ B+
1.10 50% 48% 50% +7 -2 1.11 21% 1.7 .36 13% .28 61% .17 0.98 75% 38% 18% -5 +1 0.95 22% 1.1 .25 16% .24 60% .14
Jan
17		 Arizona B+ F B+ D- C 33% 32% 35% C+ C A A+ A+ B- C- A+ B+ B+ F F A+ D+ 33% 42% 25% A+ C A+ A+ A+ B- F B F
1.03 40% 42% 29% -8 -2 0.83 33% 1.4 .45 17% .23 93% .21 1.13 82% 55% 23% +11 -3 1.17 29% 0.6 .16 16% .53 70% .37
Jan
20		 Iowa St. C- C- B F F+ 22% 20% 57% C+ D- A A A+ F F A+ F+ D D+ A+ B+ A 51% 8% 42% F B+ D- F F F C- A+ B-
0.87 55% 40% 21% -11 -1 0.78 36% 1.2 .44 29% .13 83% .11 1.33 67% 25% 32% +2 +3 1.11 44% 1.3 .56 8% .35 57% .20
Jan
24		 Colorado A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 28% 26% 46% D+ A+ C A B C- A- D- B- C- C+ D+ F F 33% 31% 37% A+ D- A+ F A+ C- D+ D+ D
1.35 71% 46% 61% +24 -1 1.48 27% 1.3 .35 17% .36 67% .24 1.22 59% 44% 53% +12 -2 1.23 14% 1.3 .17 13% .36 77% .28
Jan
27		 Arizona St. B F A+ F D 43% 23% 34% C+ D+ B A+ A A+ C+ C- C+ B- C A- F D 30% 26% 44% A- D+ A+ C A+ C- B- A- B
1.13 43% 67% 22% -6 0 0.91 36% 1.3 .47 13% .31 74% .23 1.09 60% 31% 45% +6 -1 1.12 16% 1.2 .19 14% .33 70% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Texas Tech A+ A F B+ B 38% 42% 20% D+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ B- F F D+ D- 34% 11% 55% F+ F+ A+ F A+ A- B+ A+ A
1.27 67% 26% 36% -1 -3 0.95 41% 1.6 .66 9% .35 82% .29 1.16 78% 67% 38% +13 +1 1.30 15% 1.3 .19 19% .21 58% .12
Feb
4		 Houston C- F+ F+ F F+ 24% 36% 40% F F C- A+ B A A- A+ A+ C F F A+ D- 35% 39% 26% B- D C A B+ D- A+ B- A+
0.89 45% 25% 22% -15 -3 0.67 26% 1.2 .32 18% .39 85% .34 1.28 79% 67% 14% +11 -3 1.19 39% 0.8 .32 8% .14 75% .11
Feb
8		 Cincinnati B+ B- A- D- B 32% 30% 38% D B- B- F D- A+ C- A+ C+ F F C+ F F 29% 37% 33% A+ F A- F D- C F+ D+ F+
1.03 56% 47% 29% -1 -2 0.96 27% 0.6 .17 11% .24 80% .19 1.31 73% 37% 59% +17 -3 1.29 26% 1.6 .41 16% .36 71% .25
Feb
14		 West Virginia C B+ F C+ B- 37% 29% 33% D C+ B- D C C- B+ A A- C C+ F A C+ 29% 27% 45% A+ B D- A+ A- C C F F+
0.99 63% 20% 35% -3 -1 0.94 27% 0.9 .24 19% .29 81% .24 1.09 57% 54% 27% -1 -1 0.98 37% 0.8 .29 16% .33 84% .28
Feb
17		 TCU A- C+ B+ A+ A 43% 21% 36% C+ A C C- C A- A A+ A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ 37% 24% 39% B+ A+ C+ B B- B- F A D-
1.15 57% 45% 42% +5 0 1.13 26% 1.0 .26 17% .34 90% .30 1.00 42% 67% 20% -7 0 0.86 33% 1.0 .33 17% .46 63% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 4th
5th 0.3 3.1 1.2 4.6 5th
6th 0.7 10.4 9.6 0.5 21.1 6th
7th 0.2 9.7 16.4 1.7 28.0 7th
8th 0.1 5.0 17.5 4.0 0.0 26.6 8th
9th 0.8 8.9 4.2 0.1 14.0 9th
10th 1.9 2.0 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.7 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 3.5 16.2 32.1 31.2 14.7 2.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 2.3% 98.4% 0.7% 97.6% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4%
11-7 14.7% 91.9% 0.4% 91.4% 8.7 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.9 5.1 2.5 0.3 1.2 91.8%
10-8 31.2% 81.3% 0.2% 81.1% 9.5 0.1 0.5 3.1 8.5 9.7 3.6 5.8 81.3%
9-9 32.1% 66.1% 0.1% 66.0% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.0 9.3 7.0 0.0 10.9 66.1%
8-10 16.2% 37.5% 0.1% 37.4% 10.7 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.3 0.0 10.2 37.4%
7-11 3.5% 9.7% 9.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 3.1 9.7%
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 68.7% 0.2% 68.6% 9.6 31.3 68.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 6.2 15.4 53.8 26.9 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 99.0% 6.7 5.8 35.6 47.1 7.7 1.9 1.0
Lose Out 1.9% 2.2% 11.2 0.2 1.5 0.5