Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +11.5 45
Results Rating +16.8 25
Consistency 0.15 143
Pace 72.7 69
Improvement +0.0 189

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 35 B A- B- C C
Defense B- 90 C+ B C+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 117 B 64% 58 +3.8 51
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 120 C+ 39% 140 +1.3 111
Three Pointers 36% 286 A- 39% 20 -0.1 184
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.2 210 B+ +5.0 38
1st FG Attempt B 1.12 53
Second Chance B+ 36.2% 34 B+ 1.18 27 A- 0.43 21
Turnovers from Steals B+ 7.6% 27
Other Turnovers C- 7.5% 214
Turnovers B- 15.2% 83
Freethrows C- 0.29 241 B 76% 52 C 0.22 187
Total Offense B+ +8.3 35

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 58% 49 B+ 7.7% 32
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 30% 106 B- 3.9% 102
Three Pointers C- 81% 254 B+ 0.2% 33
Total B- 59% 102 B 4.2% 35

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 269 B- 55% 96 -2.8 86
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 131 D 42% 315 +1.4 298
Three Pointers 42% 120 B- 32% 93 -0.5 158
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.4 107 C+ -1.5 119
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.98 120
Second Chance A- 24.6% 19 C- 1.05 223 B 0.26 47
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.8% 228
Other Turnovers B 8.5% 49
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 140
Freethrows C+ 0.29 145 C- 73% 240 C+ 0.21 151
Total Defense B- +3.2 90

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 187 C+ 12.1% 128
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 202 D+ 3.0% 295
Three Pointers A- 76% 18 C+ 1.1% 118
Total C+ 53% 120 C 5.4% 186

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.4 30 18.5 332
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 40 0.14 83
Consistency 0.11 105 0.11 83
Improvement -1.1 239 +1.1 126

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Likely In
Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 55 47 40
Results Rating Rank 37 27 21
Conference Record 9 - 9 11 - 7 12 - 6
Conference Finish 7 6 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None 9 6
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 7% 10% 2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90% 94% 84%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90% 94% 84%
Average Seed 8.3 8.0 8.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 1% 6%
First Round88% 93% 81%
Second Round37% 41% 31%
Sweet Sixteen5% 6% 4%
Elite Eight1% 2% 1%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Baylor (Home) - 61.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 6
Quad 26 - 212 - 9
Quad 35 - 016 - 9
Quad 46 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 105 Hofstra W 82 - 78 83% +1  65% 1 - 0 B- +5 C+ +3 C+ A+ F C+ +2 C- A C
 Sat, Nov 8 17 Vanderbilt L 93 - 105 34% -12  3% 1 - 1 C+ +4 A+ +19 A+ A+ B+ F -14 D- F F
 Tue, Nov 11 327 Florida A&M W 97 - 60 98% +22  97% 2 - 1 A+ +23 A +11 A A+ D- A +10 C+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 14 34 @Texas A&M W 86 - 74 29% -2  25% 3 - 1 A+ +29 A +12 A+ C- D A+ +16 A+ D A-
 Mon, Nov 17 164 Oakland W 87 - 83 91% +5  92% 4 - 1 C +1 C+ +3 C A- C+ C- -3 C- A- C-
 Thu, Nov 20 101 Pittsburgh W 77 - 67 74% +5  80% 5 - 1 A- +15 A +12 C A+ C- B +4 A C+ B
 Tue, Nov 25 206 Quinnipiac W 102 - 91 93% +2  53% 6 - 1 B- +5 A+ +16 A- B+ A F -11 F A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 359 VMI W 82 - 57 99% +9  70% 7 - 1 B- +6 C- -2 F D A A +9 A C B
 Sun, Dec 7 172 Towson W 86 - 61 92% +17  99% 8 - 1 A +21 A+ +19 A- A+ B- B +4 C D A+
 Wed, Dec 17 182 Mercer W 81 - 63 92% +10  94% 9 - 1 B+ +14 C- -1 D B C+ A+ +14 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 20 251 Florida Gulf Coast W 102 - 80 95% +5  57% 10 - 1 B+ +14 A+ +19 A+ A B D -5 F A A-
 Tue, Dec 23 118 Florida Atlantic W 85 - 80 79% -1  48% 11 - 1 B- +8 B- +5 B- A- C+ B- +2 B F+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 18 Kansas W 81 - 75 35% +2  67% 12 - 1 1 - 0 A +21 A+ +15 B+ A+ A+ B+ +6 A+ B- B+
 Tue, Jan 6 64 @Oklahoma St. L 76 - 87 49% -6  4% 12 - 2 1 - 1 C +1 D -5 F A- A A- +8 D- A+ A
 Sun, Jan 11 42 Cincinnati W 73 - 72 59% +1  66% 13 - 2 2 - 1 B +10 A- +10 A+ A- C- C+ +1 A F+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 97 @Kansas St. W 82 - 73 62% +7  93% 14 - 2 3 - 1 A- +18 B +6 A- C- A+ A +11 A A- C
 Sat, Jan 17 3 Arizona L 77 - 84 18% -6  5% 14 - 3 3 - 2 B+ +14 B+ +8 C A+ C+ A- +7 C A+ B
 Tue, Jan 20 8 @Iowa St. L 57 - 87 12% -15  3% 14 - 4 3 - 3 D+ -6 C- -1 F+ A+ F D- -7 B F F
 Sat, Jan 24 66 @Colorado W 95 - 86 49% +3  59% 15 - 4 4 - 3 A +21 A+ +24 A+ B C D+ -3 D- A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 27 69 Arizona St. W 79 - 76 71% -2  28% 16 - 4 5 - 3 B +9 B +6 D+ A A+ B- +3 D+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 12 Texas Tech W 88 - 80 33% +4  90% 17 - 4 6 - 3 A+ +24 A+ +20 B- A+ A+ B +4 D- A+ A-
 Wed, Feb 4 6 @Houston L 55 - 79 12% -14  1% 17 - 5 6 - 4 C +0 C- -1 F B A C- -2 D- B+ F+
 Sun, Feb 8 42 @Cincinnati L 72 - 92 36% -11  0% 17 - 6 6 - 5 C- -5 B+ +8 B- F+ A+ F -13 F D- C
 Sat, Feb 14 57 West Virginia L 67 - 74 68% +3  62% 17 - 7 6 - 6 C -0 C +0 C+ C C- C -1 B B+ C
 Tue, Feb 17 50 TCU W 82 - 71 63% +11  99% 18 - 7 7 - 6 A +19 A- +11 A C A- A- +8 A B- B-
 Sat, Feb 21 99 @Utah W 73 - 71 64% +2  72% 19 - 7 8 - 6 B +10 A- +9 A+ F C+ C+ +1 A- F B-
 Tue, Feb 24 22 @BYU W 97 - 84 21% +20  98% 20 - 7 9 - 6 A+ +33 A+ +19 A+ C+ D A+ +13 A+ A D
 Sat, Feb 28 46 Baylor W 84 - 81 61%
 Tue, Mar 3 64 Oklahoma St. W 89 - 83 70%
 Fri, Mar 6 57 @West Virginia L 70 - 71 46%
Totals 22 - 8 11 - 7 +12 B+ +8 A+ B+ C B- +3 A- B C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B C+ A- B+ 41% 42% 36% C B B+ B+ A- B- C- B C B- B- D B- C+ 36% 22% 42% C+ C+ A- C- B C+ C+ C- C+
1.21 64% 39% 39% +5 0 1.12 36% 1.2 .43 15% .29 76% .22 1.04 55% 42% 32% -2 0 0.98 25% 1.1 .26 17% .29 73% .21
Nov
3		 Hofstra C+ D F B- C- 53% 9% 38% A+ C+ A+ B A+ F A+ F A+ C+ F C A C 41% 22% 37% D C- C- A+ A C F F F
1.13 50% 25% 35% -5 +3 0.98 47% 1.1 .53 22% .63 61% .39 1.07 70% 36% 28% +1 0 1.04 35% 0.7 .24 16% .40 88% .35
Nov
8		 Vanderbilt A+ B+ F+ A+ A+ 41% 27% 31% C A+ C+ A+ A+ B+ A+ B A+ F F F C- D- 32% 12% 56% C- D- B- F F F A F B+
1.25 62% 29% 56% +9 -1 1.20 29% 1.5 .43 16% .45 79% .35 1.42 74% 71% 36% +11 +1 1.25 30% 1.9 .57 8% .25 88% .22
Nov
11		 Florida A&M A D+ F A+ A 56% 16% 28% B+ A A+ A- A+ D- F+ C- F+ A B C- B+ B- 42% 16% 42% F C+ A+ A+ A+ C F A+ C-
1.30 56% 22% 69% +11 +2 1.28 47% 1.1 .53 21% .27 75% .21 0.81 52% 38% 29% -6 +1 0.92 18% 0.3 .05 21% .38 55% .21
Nov
14		 Texas A&M A B+ F A+ A+ 33% 18% 49% C+ A+ F+ A+ C- D C A+ A- A+ A+ F+ A A+ 42% 8% 50% C A+ A F D A- F C- F
1.15 65% 22% 52% +13 0 1.27 21% 1.2 .25 21% .29 94% .27 0.99 38% 50% 28% -12 +2 0.82 27% 1.4 .38 19% .49 77% .38
Nov
17		 Oakland C+ D A+ C C 38% 21% 40% C C B+ B A- C+ A+ C A+ C- A+ C F C 44% 15% 40% D+ C- B- A A- C- F F F
1.20 55% 64% 33% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.1 .45 15% .41 72% .29 1.14 43% 38% 43% -1 +1 1.02 28% 0.9 .25 14% .42 85% .35
Nov
20		 Pittsburgh A B C+ F C 47% 21% 32% C+ C A+ A+ A+ C- D F F B B- A+ A A+ 36% 9% 56% D A C- B C+ B F F F
1.23 64% 40% 27% -1 +1 1.02 50% 1.5 .75 18% .23 58% .14 1.07 56% 25% 28% -7 +1 0.91 36% 0.9 .33 19% .41 86% .35
Nov
25		 Quinnipiac A+ A+ F B+ A- 50% 19% 31% B- A- B B+ B+ A A+ C+ A+ F C A F F 31% 24% 45% B- F A+ A+ A+ D- F F F
1.30 72% 18% 39% +6 +1 1.16 38% 1.1 .43 13% .40 74% .29 1.16 56% 25% 52% +9 -1 1.18 17% 0.7 .11 14% .52 83% .43
Nov
29		 VMI C- A+ F F F 36% 24% 41% D+ F A+ F D A D+ A+ C+ A A+ A+ A A 27% 12% 61% C A F A+ C B F C F
1.21 95% 14% 17% -3 -1 0.95 56% 0.6 .34 12% .28 82% .23 0.84 38% 17% 27% -15 0 0.73 36% 0.6 .22 19% .38 71% .27
Dec
7		 Towson A+ A A+ F A 45% 27% 29% C A- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ B A- F A C+ 33% 24% 43% D+ C C F+ D A+ C+ A+ A
1.34 68% 62% 21% +5 0 1.12 42% 1.5 .62 14% .38 90% .34 0.95 47% 64% 25% -3 -1 0.93 35% 1.0 .35 23% .26 46% .12
Dec
17		 Mercer C- D+ B- C D+ 39% 30% 31% D- D A- C- B C+ C+ C C+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ 33% 29% 38% B+ A+ A D- B A+ F C- F
1.13 52% 44% 35% 0 -1 1.00 40% 0.9 .38 17% .28 76% .22 0.88 53% 23% 29% -9 -1 0.82 25% 1.1 .28 24% .44 75% .33
Dec
20		 Florida Gulf Coast A+ D F A+ A+ 36% 12% 52% B- A+ A+ D+ A B F F F D A C- F F 30% 21% 48% D+ F A+ C+ A A- A+ A+ A+
1.42 52% 29% 60% +17 +1 1.38 47% 1.0 .47 14% .19 58% .11 1.11 47% 42% 56% +13 -1 1.27 19% 1.0 .19 21% .09 60% .05
Dec
23		 Florida Atlantic B- A A F B 45% 24% 31% D+ B- B A A- C+ B D C+ B- B+ D+ B- B+ 33% 18% 48% C+ B A- F F+ D+ A+ D A
1.12 68% 46% 24% +2 0 1.05 32% 1.2 .37 16% .34 68% .23 1.05 50% 45% 31% -3 0 0.95 27% 1.6 .44 16% .19 75% .14
Jan
3		 Kansas A+ B- C- D+ B+ 40% 23% 38% B- B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ B+ B- B+ A A+ 33% 25% 41% B- A+ C+ B- B- B+ F B D-
1.16 57% 33% 30% -4 0 0.94 32% 1.2 .39 9% .41 69% .28 1.08 59% 31% 29% -5 -1 0.90 31% 1.2 .36 17% .40 74% .29
Jan
6		 Oklahoma St. D D- A+ F F 42% 10% 48% B F C A+ A- A A- F+ B- A- A- B- F F+ 50% 13% 38% C D- A+ A+ A+ A F D F
0.94 48% 50% 17% -15 +2 0.75 28% 1.5 .43 14% .33 65% .21 1.08 50% 33% 56% +7 +2 1.21 18% 0.4 .07 20% .54 77% .42
Jan
11		 Cincinnati A- A+ B A+ A+ 38% 33% 29% D A+ D- A+ A- C- F A+ D- C+ F+ D- A+ A- 35% 35% 30% A A B+ F F+ F A+ A- A+
1.09 72% 44% 43% +11 -2 1.21 19% 2.0 .38 21% .17 78% .13 1.07 70% 45% 12% -3 -2 0.91 28% 1.5 .42 10% .13 63% .08
Jan
14		 Kansas St. B D A A+ A+ 36% 38% 25% F A- F A+ C- A+ C- F D- A F C- A+ A+ 40% 13% 47% C- A A+ D+ A- C B- A+ B+
1.10 50% 48% 50% +7 -2 1.11 21% 1.7 .36 13% .28 61% .17 0.98 75% 38% 18% -5 +1 0.95 22% 1.1 .25 16% .24 60% .14
Jan
17		 Arizona B+ F B+ D- C 33% 32% 35% C+ C A A+ A+ C+ D+ A+ B A- F F A+ D+ 33% 42% 25% A+ C A+ A+ A+ B F B F
1.03 40% 42% 29% -8 -2 0.83 33% 1.4 .45 17% .23 93% .21 1.13 82% 55% 23% +11 -3 1.17 29% 0.6 .16 16% .53 70% .37
Jan
20		 Iowa St. C- C- B F F+ 22% 20% 57% C+ F+ A A- A+ F F A+ F+ D- D+ A+ B+ A- 51% 8% 42% F B F+ F+ F F C- A+ B-
0.87 55% 40% 21% -11 -1 0.78 36% 1.2 .44 29% .13 83% .11 1.33 67% 25% 32% +2 +3 1.11 44% 1.3 .56 8% .35 57% .20
Jan
24		 Colorado A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 28% 26% 46% D+ A+ C A+ B C A- D- B- D+ C+ D+ F F 33% 31% 37% A+ D- A+ F A+ D+ D+ D+ D
1.35 71% 46% 61% +24 -1 1.48 27% 1.3 .35 17% .36 67% .24 1.22 59% 44% 53% +12 -2 1.23 14% 1.3 .17 13% .36 77% .28
Jan
27		 Arizona St. B F A+ F D 43% 23% 34% B- D+ B A+ A A+ C+ C C+ B- C A- F D 30% 26% 44% A D+ A+ C+ A+ C- B- A- B
1.13 43% 67% 22% -6 0 0.91 36% 1.3 .47 13% .31 74% .23 1.09 60% 31% 45% +6 -1 1.12 16% 1.2 .19 14% .33 70% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Texas Tech A+ A- F B+ B- 38% 42% 20% D+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ B F F D+ D- 34% 11% 55% F+ D- A+ F A+ A- B+ A+ A
1.27 67% 26% 36% -1 -3 0.95 41% 1.6 .66 9% .35 82% .29 1.16 78% 67% 38% +13 +1 1.30 15% 1.3 .19 19% .21 58% .12
Feb
4		 Houston C- F+ F+ F F+ 24% 36% 40% F F C A+ B A A- A+ A+ C- F F A+ F+ 35% 39% 26% B- D- C A B+ F+ A+ B A+
0.89 45% 25% 22% -15 -3 0.67 26% 1.2 .32 18% .39 85% .34 1.28 79% 67% 14% +11 -3 1.19 39% 0.8 .32 8% .14 75% .11
Feb
8		 Cincinnati B+ B- A- D- B 32% 30% 38% D B- C+ F F+ A+ C- A+ C+ F F C+ F F 29% 37% 33% A+ F A F D- C F D+ F+
1.03 56% 47% 29% -1 -2 0.96 27% 0.6 .17 11% .24 80% .19 1.31 73% 37% 59% +16 -3 1.29 26% 1.6 .41 16% .36 71% .25
Feb
14		 West Virginia C A- F C+ B- 37% 29% 33% D C+ C+ D+ C C- B A A- C C+ F A C+ 29% 27% 45% A+ B D- A+ B+ C C- F F
0.99 63% 20% 35% -3 -1 0.94 27% 0.9 .24 19% .29 81% .24 1.09 57% 54% 27% -1 -1 0.98 37% 0.8 .29 16% .33 84% .28
Feb
17		 TCU A- C+ B+ A+ A 43% 21% 36% C+ A C C- C A- A A+ A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ 37% 24% 39% B+ A B- B- B- B- F A D
1.15 57% 45% 42% +5 0 1.13 26% 1.0 .26 17% .34 90% .30 1.00 42% 67% 20% -7 0 0.86 33% 1.0 .33 17% .46 63% .29
Feb
21		 Utah A- A+ D A+ A+ 36% 40% 24% F A+ C F F C+ F D+ F C+ C D- A B+ 35% 22% 43% B+ A- C F F B- A+ F A+
1.17 78% 35% 58% +15 -3 1.26 29% 0.5 .14 14% .17 67% .11 1.14 59% 45% 29% -2 0 0.98 31% 1.8 .55 18% .14 100% .14
Feb
24		 BYU A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 23% 38% 39% D A+ C+ C C+ D C- A C+ A+ B A C+ A+ 31% 31% 39% A- A+ A+ D+ A D B- F C
1.25 85% 38% 59% +21 -3 1.38 27% 1.1 .30 19% .22 79% .18 1.08 58% 32% 33% -2 -2 0.94 27% 1.3 .34 12% .29 85% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 4.2 4.2 4th
5th 4.0 11.8 15.9 5th
6th 0.6 21.9 38.2 4.6 65.3 6th
7th 3.1 7.4 10.5 7th
8th 3.0 0.4 3.5 8th
9th 0.2 0.2 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 7.0 29.7 42.3 21.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 21.0% 98.2% 0.7% 97.5% 7.2 0.1 0.7 4.1 7.9 5.4 2.1 0.4 0.4 98.2%
11-7 42.3% 93.2% 0.3% 92.9% 8.2 0.1 1.9 8.0 13.3 11.3 4.2 0.6 2.9 93.2%
10-8 29.7% 86.2% 0.4% 85.8% 9.0 0.2 1.7 5.5 9.2 7.1 1.9 0.0 4.1 86.1%
9-9 7.0% 62.0% 62.0% 9.9 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 1.2 2.7 62.0%
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 90.0% 0.4% 89.6% 8.3 10.0 90.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 5.9 5.1 13.6 66.1 15.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.1% 99.0% 6.5 10.8 36.3 40.8 8.9 2.2
Lose Out 4.1% 51.5% 10.3 0.2 0.5 6.9 22.3 21.6