Houston
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +21.3 #4
Expected Predictive Rating +22.2 #9
Pace 61.2 #351
Improvement +3.7 #33

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #9 B- A- A D+ F+
Defense #7 A B- A+ C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #363 1.45 #4 -2.4 #265
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #28 0.77 #157 +3.8 #29
Three Pointers 42% #150 1.07 #117 +1.7 #124
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #88 +3.1 #87
Freethrows 0.25 #322 78% #23 0.19 #272
Second Chance 40.2% #9 1.07 #140 0.43 #27
Turnovers 12.0% #4
Total Offense +10.9 #9

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #317 1.01 #30 +5.5 #31
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #147 0.54 #2 +2.0 #43
Three Pointers 45% #64 0.89 #37 +0.6 #149
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #6 +8.2 #6
Freethrows 0.31 #213 69% #40 0.22 #166
Second Chance 28.0% #88 0.98 #91 0.27 #71
Turnovers 23.4% #2
Total Defense +10.4 #7

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.0% #355 -1.0% #94
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.5% #36 -15.2% #4
Possession Length 17.8 #214 19.0 #354
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #145 0.07 #4
Improvement +4.0 #15 -0.3 #205

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.2% 3.9% 1.3%
#1 Seed 20.3% 23.7% 10.8%
Top 2 Seed 51.6% 57.6% 34.8%
Top 4 Seed 91.7% 94.6% 83.6%
Top 6 Seed 99.3% 99.7% 98.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.6 2.4 3.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 22.8% 27.4% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.0% 97.6% 95.3%
Sweet Sixteen70.6% 72.3% 66.0%
Elite Eight41.1% 43.3% 35.0%
Final Four22.4% 24.0% 17.8%
Championship Game11.9% 13.0% 8.7%
National Champion5.8% 6.5% 3.9%

Next Game: TCU (Away) - 73.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 19 - 5
Quad 28 - 017 - 6
Quad 35 - 022 - 6
Quad 45 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 301 Lehigh W 75 - 57 99% +15  1 - 0 +7 -1 D- B+ D- +8 A B- B+
 Sat, Nov 8 164 Towson W 65 - 48 98% +9  2 - 0 +14 -2 C C D +17 B A- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 137 Oakland W 78 - 45 97% +21  3 - 0 +31 +10 C- B A+ +26 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 26 Auburn W 73 - 72 71% +3  4 - 0 +17 +9 C+ C A- +8 A+ A- D+
 Thu, Nov 20 352 Rider W 91 - 45 100% +25  5 - 0 +30 +15 A+ F+ B +16 A B A+
 Mon, Nov 24 71 Syracuse W 78 - 74 OT 89% +2  6 - 0 +12 +4 D+ A+ B +8 B A B
 Tue, Nov 25 22 Tennessee L 73 - 76 66% +2  6 - 1 +14 +21 A+ B A- -7 A- C- D-
 Wed, Nov 26 84 Notre Dame W 66 - 56 90% +12  7 - 1 +17 +10 F A+ A+ +9 A+ B D
 Sat, Dec 6 107 Florida St. W 82 - 67 93% +10  8 - 1 +19 +11 A+ D- B- +8 A- D A+
 Wed, Dec 10 337 Jackson St. W 80 - 38 100% +22  9 - 1 +28 +7 D+ A+ D+ +24 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 242 New Orleans W 99 - 57 99% +25  10 - 1 +35 +22 A+ D A+ +14 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 19 Arkansas W 94 - 85 66% +10  11 - 1 +26 +22 A+ A- A+ +3 B C+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 142 Middle Tennessee W 69 - 60 97% +5  12 - 1 +7 +9 C C+ A+ -0 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 54 @Cincinnati W 67 - 60 78% -1  13 - 1 1 - 0 +20 +12 C A A+ +9 C+ A- A+
 Tue, Jan 6 14 Texas Tech W 69 - 65 72% -0  14 - 1 2 - 0 +19 +5 D+ B+ A+ +14 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 10 44 @Baylor W 77 - 55 74% +11  15 - 1 3 - 0 +37 +18 C A- A+ +21 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 56 West Virginia W 77 - 48 90% +16  16 - 1 4 - 0 +36 +20 C+ A+ A+ +20 A A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 18 81 Arizona St. W 103 - 73 93% +22  17 - 1 5 - 0 +34 +29 A+ A+ A+ +5 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 14 @Texas Tech L 86 - 90 50% -1  17 - 2 5 - 1 +17 +28 A+ B+ A+ -11 A- F B-
 Wed, Jan 28 43 @TCU W 72 - 65 74%
 Sat, Jan 31 54 Cincinnati W 73 - 59 91%
 Wed, Feb 4 49 Central Florida W 80 - 67 90%
 Sat, Feb 7 13 @BYU L 73 - 74 48%
 Tue, Feb 10 103 @Utah W 81 - 67 90%
 Sat, Feb 14 87 Kansas St. W 84 - 66 95%
 Mon, Feb 16 8 @Iowa St. L 69 - 71 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 2 Arizona W 74 - 73 51%
 Mon, Feb 23 16 @Kansas W 70 - 69 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 82 Colorado W 82 - 65 94%
 Wed, Mar 4 44 Baylor W 80 - 67 88%
 Sat, Mar 7 62 @Oklahoma St. W 81 - 72 81%
Totals 26 - 5 14 - 4 +21 +11 B- A- A +10 A B- A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.9 8.7 9.2 3.0 22.8 1st
2nd 0.2 4.2 16.2 13.3 2.9 36.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 10.0 7.0 0.6 19.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.7 5.3 0.5 11.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 3.3 0.5 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.5 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.2 10.7 20.1 25.7 22.6 12.0 3.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 3.0    2.5 0.5
16-2 76.2% 9.2    4.9 4.0 0.2
15-3 38.3% 8.7    2.2 4.6 1.8 0.1
14-4 7.5% 1.9    0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.1
13-5 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.8% 22.8 9.8 9.6 2.9 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 3.0% 100.0% 34.6% 65.4% 1.3 2.0 0.9 0.1 100.0%
16-2 12.0% 100.0% 29.6% 70.4% 1.6 6.2 4.9 0.8 0.1 100.0%
15-3 22.6% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 2.0 6.9 10.5 4.4 0.8 0.0 100.0%
14-4 25.7% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 2.5 3.9 9.7 8.4 3.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 20.1% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 3.1 1.1 4.3 7.2 5.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 10.7% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 3.8 0.1 0.9 2.9 4.0 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 4.2% 100.0% 7.0% 93.0% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 1.3% 100.0% 5.6% 94.4% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.3% 100.0% 1.8% 98.2% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 20.1% 79.9% 2.6 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.2 82.0 17.6 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 1.4 65.1 32.9 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 1.4 61.6 35.8 2.6