Houston
American Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.4#2
Expected Predictive Rating+19.6#3
Pace61.0#340
Improvement-1.6#335

Offense
Total Offense+9.2#10
First Shot+2.3#94
After Offensive Rebound+6.9#1
Layup/Dunks-0.2#179
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#10
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#190
Freethrows-1.9#313
Improvement+0.6#76

Defense
Total Defense+10.2#5
First Shot+8.1#8
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#24
Layups/Dunks+6.9#6
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#184
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#75
Freethrows-1.6#292
Improvement-2.2#361
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 13.6% 14.7% 5.4%
#1 Seed 56.0% 58.7% 34.8%
Top 2 Seed 89.0% 91.0% 73.7%
Top 4 Seed 99.6% 99.8% 98.1%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 1.6 1.5 2.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 97.2% 97.9% 91.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round97.3% 97.5% 95.4%
Sweet Sixteen74.1% 74.9% 68.4%
Elite Eight51.7% 52.6% 44.8%
Final Four33.3% 34.0% 27.2%
Championship Game20.4% 21.0% 15.9%
National Champion12.8% 13.2% 9.6%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 88.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 05 - 1
Quad 27 - 012 - 2
Quad 36 - 118 - 3
Quad 410 - 028 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 269   Northern Colorado W 83-36 99%     1 - 0 +38.7 +11.5 +31.9
  Nov 11, 2022 174   Saint Joseph's W 81-55 95%     2 - 0 +26.0 +9.7 +16.7
  Nov 14, 2022 73   Oral Roberts W 83-45 91%     3 - 0 +42.6 +12.9 +31.4
  Nov 16, 2022 312   Texas Southern W 83-48 99%     4 - 0 +24.1 +12.8 +13.6
  Nov 20, 2022 48   @ Oregon W 66-56 74%     5 - 0 +22.7 +9.3 +15.0
  Nov 26, 2022 72   Kent St. W 49-44 91%     6 - 0 +9.6 -18.2 +27.8
  Nov 29, 2022 202   Norfolk St. W 100-52 98%     7 - 0 +43.6 +31.4 +16.4
  Dec 03, 2022 12   St. Mary's W 53-48 66%     8 - 0 +20.0 +3.7 +17.6
  Dec 06, 2022 285   North Florida W 76-42 99%     9 - 0 +24.7 +6.4 +23.5
  Dec 10, 2022 4   Alabama L 65-71 66%     9 - 1 +9.1 -1.2 +10.5
  Dec 13, 2022 276   N.C. A&T W 74-46 99%     10 - 1 +19.4 -1.2 +21.6
  Dec 17, 2022 17   @ Virginia W 69-61 60%     11 - 1 +24.9 +17.3 +9.1
  Dec 21, 2022 339   McNeese St. W 83-44 99%     12 - 1 +25.3 +11.9 +18.8
  Dec 28, 2022 230   @ Tulsa W 89-50 96%     13 - 1 1 - 0 +38.2 +20.7 +19.9
  Dec 31, 2022 65   Central Florida W 71-65 89%     14 - 1 2 - 0 +11.7 +10.1 +2.3
  Jan 05, 2023 159   SMU W 87-53 97%     15 - 1 3 - 0 +31.8 +19.4 +14.4
  Jan 08, 2023 59   @ Cincinnati W 72-59 77%     16 - 1 4 - 0 +24.6 +9.7 +15.7
  Jan 11, 2023 131   South Florida W 83-77 96%     17 - 1 5 - 0 +5.5 +12.6 -6.9
  Jan 17, 2023 83   @ Tulane W 80-60 83%     18 - 1 6 - 0 +29.2 +13.4 +16.7
  Jan 22, 2023 98   Temple L 55-56 94%     18 - 2 6 - 1 +1.1 -8.5 +9.5
  Jan 25, 2023 65   @ Central Florida W 82-71 79%     19 - 2 7 - 1 +22.0 +28.0 -4.3
  Jan 28, 2023 59   Cincinnati W 75-69 89%     20 - 2 8 - 1 +12.2 +13.8 -0.9
  Feb 02, 2023 109   @ Wichita St. W 69-56 88%    
  Feb 05, 2023 98   @ Temple W 70-58 86%    
  Feb 08, 2023 230   Tulsa W 80-54 99%    
  Feb 16, 2023 159   @ SMU W 74-58 93%    
  Feb 19, 2023 37   Memphis W 75-64 85%    
  Feb 22, 2023 83   Tulane W 80-64 93%    
  Feb 25, 2023 201   @ East Carolina W 75-57 95%    
  Mar 02, 2023 109   Wichita St. W 71-53 96%    
  Mar 05, 2023 37   @ Memphis W 72-67 68%    
Projected Record 28 - 3 16 - 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.7 17.8 39.1 36.3 97.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.6 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.1 5.0 18.3 39.1 36.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 36.3    36.3
16-2 100.0% 39.1    39.1 0.0
15-3 96.8% 17.8    14.7 3.0 0.0
14-4 74.4% 3.7    1.8 1.7 0.2
13-5 26.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 97.2% 97.2 91.9 4.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 36.3% 100.0% 68.9% 31.1% 1.2 28.3 7.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 39.1% 100.0% 65.1% 34.9% 1.5 21.8 15.0 2.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 18.3% 100.0% 60.6% 39.4% 2.0 5.4 8.5 3.8 0.6 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.0% 100.0% 56.5% 43.5% 2.7 0.4 1.7 2.0 0.9 0.1 100.0%
13-5 1.1% 100.0% 55.4% 44.6% 3.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.1% 95.1% 39.3% 55.7% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.9%
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 65.1% 34.9% 1.6 56.0 33.0 8.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 36.3% 100.0% 1.2 77.8 21.3 0.9 0.0