Houston
American Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.6#7
Expected Predictive Rating+15.2#24
Pace61.9#335
Improvement+0.9#96

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#19
First Shot+6.0#30
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#65
Layup/Dunks+2.8#81
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#99
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement+0.3#140

Defense
Total Defense+9.4#4
First Shot+7.8#16
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#82
Layups/Dunks+7.2#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#146
Freethrows+0.3#170
Improvement+0.7#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.3% 3.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 16.6% 16.7% 7.6%
Top 2 Seed 32.6% 32.7% 19.4%
Top 4 Seed 59.7% 59.9% 47.9%
Top 6 Seed 77.3% 77.4% 63.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.1% 97.1% 96.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.9% 93.9% 92.7%
Average Seed 4.2 4.2 5.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.8% 96.5%
Conference Champion 69.0% 69.0% 68.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 1.7%
First Round96.6% 96.6% 96.2%
Second Round81.0% 81.1% 70.2%
Sweet Sixteen52.0% 52.2% 34.3%
Elite Eight29.0% 29.1% 20.9%
Final Four15.5% 15.6% 5.7%
Championship Game8.1% 8.2% 3.6%
National Champion4.1% 4.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Bryant (Home) - 98.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 3
Quad 27 - 111 - 5
Quad 39 - 020 - 5
Quad 48 - 029 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 133   Hofstra W 83-75 OT 95%     1 - 0 +7.3 +5.4 +1.8
  Nov 12, 2021 184   Rice W 79-46 97%     2 - 0 +28.9 +6.0 +25.3
  Nov 16, 2021 40   Virginia W 67-47 82%     3 - 0 +27.7 +13.1 +18.4
  Nov 22, 2021 103   Butler W 70-52 89%     4 - 0 +22.3 +7.6 +16.3
  Nov 23, 2021 29   Wisconsin L 63-65 69%     4 - 1 +10.3 +5.6 +4.5
  Nov 24, 2021 44   Oregon W 78-49 76%     5 - 1 +39.1 +13.0 +27.4
  Nov 30, 2021 344   Northwestern St. W 99-58 99.5%    6 - 1 +24.6 +15.2 +8.8
  Dec 03, 2021 236   Bryant W 82-58 99%    
  Dec 06, 2021 315   Alcorn St. W 79-50 99.8%   
  Dec 11, 2021 13   @ Alabama L 71-72 46%    
  Dec 14, 2021 186   Louisiana W 80-58 98%    
  Dec 18, 2021 32   Oklahoma St. W 68-62 68%    
  Dec 22, 2021 138   Texas St. W 72-53 96%    
  Dec 28, 2021 55   Cincinnati W 70-58 87%    
  Jan 02, 2022 150   @ Temple W 72-59 89%    
  Jan 05, 2022 225   @ South Florida W 65-48 94%    
  Jan 08, 2022 53   Wichita St. W 69-57 87%    
  Jan 15, 2022 142   @ Tulsa W 71-58 87%    
  Jan 18, 2022 225   South Florida W 68-45 98%    
  Jan 22, 2022 178   East Carolina W 77-56 97%    
  Jan 29, 2022 65   @ Central Florida W 69-62 74%    
  Feb 02, 2022 168   Tulane W 74-53 97%    
  Feb 06, 2022 55   @ Cincinnati W 67-61 71%    
  Feb 09, 2022 99   @ SMU W 73-63 80%    
  Feb 12, 2022 23   Memphis W 71-64 74%    
  Feb 17, 2022 65   Central Florida W 72-59 88%    
  Feb 20, 2022 53   @ Wichita St. W 66-60 71%    
  Feb 23, 2022 168   @ Tulane W 71-56 90%    
  Feb 27, 2022 99   SMU W 76-60 92%    
  Mar 03, 2022 150   Temple W 75-56 95%    
  Mar 06, 2022 23   @ Memphis W 68-67 53%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 5.0 14.0 20.8 18.5 9.5 69.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.2 5.0 7.0 5.4 1.4 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.9 0.9 0.1 7.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 2.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.1 2.2 4.4 9.2 13.0 19.5 22.1 18.5 9.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 9.5    9.5
17-1 100.0% 18.5    17.8 0.6
16-2 93.8% 20.8    17.7 3.0 0.0
15-3 72.0% 14.0    9.2 4.5 0.3
14-4 38.7% 5.0    2.1 2.2 0.7 0.0
13-5 11.2% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 69.0% 69.0 56.7 10.8 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 9.5% 100.0% 70.5% 29.5% 1.5 5.9 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 18.5% 100.0% 66.0% 34.0% 2.0 7.2 6.1 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 22.1% 99.9% 58.6% 41.4% 3.1 3.0 5.3 6.0 4.6 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-3 19.5% 99.8% 48.8% 51.0% 4.5 0.5 1.6 3.3 4.8 3.7 3.0 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.6%
14-4 13.0% 97.9% 42.5% 55.4% 6.2 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.6 2.7 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 96.4%
13-5 9.2% 95.7% 35.9% 59.7% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.4 93.3%
12-6 4.4% 80.4% 34.1% 46.3% 8.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.9 70.2%
11-7 2.2% 75.6% 15.9% 59.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.5 71.0%
10-8 1.1% 60.0% 25.6% 34.3% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 46.2%
9-9 0.2% 41.1% 18.8% 22.3% 10.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 27.5%
8-10 0.2% 19.4% 19.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.1% 52.4% 44.7% 4.2 16.6 16.0 14.2 12.9 9.2 8.4 5.3 5.0 3.6 3.6 2.0 0.3 2.9 93.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 1.3 70.2 26.9 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 1.4 68.9 27.1 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 84.8 7.3 7.9