Mississippi
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.9#37
Expected Predictive Rating+4.9#86
Pace68.9#179
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#40
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#31
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 5.9% 5.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 16.1% 16.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 30.8% 30.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.0% 60.1% 33.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 58.5% 58.5% 33.0%
Average Seed 6.4 6.4 9.5
.500 or above 78.4% 78.5% 33.0%
.500 or above in Conference 50.1% 50.2% 16.5%
Conference Champion 4.8% 4.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.8% 6.8% 16.5%
First Four4.6% 4.6% 16.5%
First Round57.5% 57.6% 33.0%
Second Round39.2% 39.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen17.5% 17.6% 0.0%
Elite Eight7.7% 7.7% 0.0%
Final Four2.9% 2.9% 0.0%
Championship Game1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 10
Quad 24 - 210 - 12
Quad 32 - 012 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 259   SE Louisiana W 88-58 96%     1 - 0 +21.9 +16.0 +7.4
  Nov 07, 2025 359   Louisiana Monroe W 86-58 99.8%   
  Nov 11, 2025 61   Memphis W 78-71 76%    
  Nov 14, 2025 249   Cal St. Bakersfield W 81-60 97%    
  Nov 18, 2025 263   Austin Peay W 81-60 97%    
  Nov 25, 2025 33   Iowa L 76-77 49%    
  Dec 02, 2025 48   Miami (FL) W 76-71 67%    
  Dec 06, 2025 11   @ St. John's L 72-80 25%    
  Dec 13, 2025 302   Southern Miss W 86-66 96%    
  Dec 17, 2025 322   Alabama A&M W 86-64 97%    
  Dec 20, 2025 28   North Carolina St. L 71-72 47%    
  Dec 29, 2025 333   Alcorn St. W 87-62 99%    
  Jan 03, 2026 45   @ Oklahoma L 74-75 44%    
  Jan 07, 2026 17   Arkansas L 74-75 50%    
  Jan 10, 2026 36   Missouri W 76-73 59%    
  Jan 14, 2026 21   @ Georgia L 73-78 36%    
  Jan 17, 2026 31   @ Mississippi St. L 71-75 38%    
  Jan 20, 2026 35   Auburn W 76-73 59%    
  Jan 24, 2026 9   @ Kentucky L 71-79 26%    
  Jan 31, 2026 25   Vanderbilt W 77-75 55%    
  Feb 03, 2026 18   @ Tennessee L 64-70 32%    
  Feb 07, 2026 42   @ Texas L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 11, 2026 19   Alabama W 81-80 50%    
  Feb 14, 2026 31   Mississippi St. W 74-72 60%    
  Feb 18, 2026 34   @ Texas A&M L 76-79 39%    
  Feb 21, 2026 6   Florida L 76-79 44%    
  Feb 25, 2026 54   LSU W 77-71 69%    
  Feb 28, 2026 35   @ Auburn L 73-76 39%    
  Mar 04, 2026 25   @ Vanderbilt L 74-78 36%    
  Mar 07, 2026 82   South Carolina W 75-65 79%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 4.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.7 3.0 1.8 0.6 6.0 3rd
4th 0.5 2.9 2.1 0.5 6.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.6 3.2 0.9 0.0 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.8 1.7 0.2 6.8 6th
7th 0.4 3.3 3.1 0.4 7.2 7th
8th 1.9 4.2 1.3 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.8 4.3 1.9 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.2 2.7 3.4 0.6 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 1.6 3.9 2.2 0.1 7.7 11th
12th 0.5 2.8 2.7 0.3 6.3 12th
13th 0.5 1.9 3.3 0.7 6.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.7 1.7 0.1 6.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.8 1.5 0.2 5.2 15th
16th 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.1 3.6 16th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.7 5.0 6.8 9.7 10.9 12.6 11.2 11.3 9.2 7.5 5.1 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 90.0% 0.7    0.6 0.1
15-3 77.9% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.2
14-4 52.5% 1.6    0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1
13-5 14.8% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 2.3 1.3 0.9 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 2.0 0.1 100.0%
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 60.0% 40.0% 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.8% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 1.8 0.3 0.4 0.1 100.0%
15-3 1.7% 100.0% 28.9% 71.1% 1.9 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.0% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 2.5 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.1% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 3.5 0.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.5% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 4.7 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.7 2.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 9.2% 98.8% 3.3% 95.4% 5.6 0.1 0.8 1.2 2.3 2.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
10-8 11.3% 96.0% 1.7% 94.3% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.0 2.6 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.5 95.9%
9-9 11.2% 89.5% 1.3% 88.1% 8.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.2 2.4 1.8 1.6 0.7 0.1 1.2 89.3%
8-10 12.6% 62.4% 1.2% 61.2% 9.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 1.4 2.3 1.4 0.3 4.7 62.0%
7-11 10.9% 27.5% 1.0% 26.5% 10.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.9 26.8%
6-12 9.7% 7.1% 0.4% 6.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 9.0 6.7%
5-13 6.8% 0.6% 0.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.6%
4-14 5.0% 0.8% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 5.0 0.8%
3-15 2.7% 2.7
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 60.0% 3.7% 56.3% 6.4 1.9 4.0 4.5 5.7 7.2 7.5 6.5 7.1 5.3 5.6 4.0 0.6 0.0 40.0 58.5%