Mississippi
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.0 73
Expected Predictive Rating +6.3 87
Pace 65.1 272
Improvement -1.6 249

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 84 C+ C+ A- C F
Defense B- 66 B C C+ C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% 362 A 69% 10 -3.8 309
2 Pt. Jumpers 46% 81 C+ 40% 99 +5.7 7
Three Pointers 39% 215 C+ 35% 145 -0.3 194
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.4 361 B +4.1 55
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 123
Second Chance C 30.1% 190 B- 1.09 83 C+ 0.33 135
Turnovers A- 13.0% 12
Freethrows C 0.30 201 B- 75% 97 C 0.23 158
Total Offense B- +3.9 84

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 56% 56 A 5.0% 2
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 109 B- 3.6% 84
Three Pointers D+ 80% 272 C 0.9% 190
Total C 56% 179 A 2.9% 5

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 337 B+ 51% 27 -6.3 20
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 83 C+ 37% 133 +0.9 261
Three Pointers 45% 60 B- 32% 94 +0.9 232
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.8 53 B -3.7 47
1st FG Attempt B 0.93 43
Second Chance C+ 29.4% 141 C- 1.06 236 C 0.31 179
Turnovers C+ 18.0% 114
Freethrows C- 0.32 233 B+ 69% 33 C 0.22 186
Total Defense B- +4.1 66

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 318 A+ 20.8% 7
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 38% 337 C+ 5.8% 113
Three Pointers C 84% 170 C- 0.6% 230
Total D 62% 315 B+ 8.1% 33

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 124 18.7 344
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 171 0.11 26
Improvement -1.2 #249 -0.4 #222

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
10th 50th 90th
Predictive Rating Rank 85 73 61
Conference Record 4 - 14 5 - 13 6 - 12
Conference Finish 15 14 12
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.3 12.3
.500 or above 1% 5% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 20% 7% 22%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Florida (Home) - 12.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 14
Quad 22 - 34 - 17
Quad 33 - 27 - 19
Quad 46 - 013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 281 SE Louisiana W 88 - 58 94% +12  67% 1 - 0 A +20 A+ +16 A- C+ A B+ +6 C+ A- B-
 Fri, Nov 7 353 Louisiana Monroe W 86 - 65 98% +17  97% 2 - 0 C+ +4 D+ -3 C- C- D B+ +6 C+ B B+
 Tue, Nov 11 103 Memphis W 83 - 77 72% +5  81% 3 - 0 B- +8 A+ +15 A+ C+ A+ D- -7 F A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 331 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 60 97% +11  97% 4 - 0 B- +8 A- +10 F+ C+ A+ C+ +0 C- C- B-
 Tue, Nov 18 154 Austin Peay W 72 - 65 85% +7  97% 5 - 0 C+ +4 C- -2 F A+ B B+ +6 A D+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 26 Iowa L 69 - 74 23% -2  8% 5 - 1 B +11 B +6 C A+ B B +4 A+ F F+
 Wed, Nov 26 102 Utah L 74 - 75 62% -3  27% 5 - 2 C+ +4 B- +5 B+ A- D+ C -1 F+ A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 2 40 Miami (FL) L 66 - 75 42% -8  10% 5 - 3 C +1 C- -2 F A- B+ B- +3 D+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 20 @St. John's L 58 - 63 12% -7  3% 5 - 4 A- +16 D- -8 F+ C+ F A+ +23 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 245 Southern Miss W 71 - 67 88% +3  74% 6 - 4 C -0 C- -1 D C- A C+ +1 D C+ B
 Wed, Dec 17 307 Alabama A&M W 80 - 66 93% +13  98% 7 - 4 B- +5 B+ +8 A+ D- B+ C -1 D D+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 24 North Carolina St. L 62 - 76 22% -15  3% 7 - 5 C+ +2 D- -7 C+ F C- A +9 C+ C- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 349 Alcorn St. W 79 - 43 98% +14  80% 8 - 5 A +20 C- -1 C+ F+ D+ A+ +23 A+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 51 @Oklahoma L 70 - 86 29% -5  14% 8 - 6 0 - 1 C- -2 C +0 D+ D+ A+ D+ -3 D+ C D-
 Wed, Jan 7 17 Arkansas L 87 - 94 24% -7  1% 8 - 7 0 - 2 B +9 A +13 A+ F A- D+ -5 C C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 49 Missouri W 76 - 69 50% -1  52% 9 - 7 1 - 2 A- +15 B +6 C- B- A+ A +9 C- A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 14 36 @Georgia W 97 - 95 OT 19% +0  30% 10 - 7 2 - 2 A +19 A+ +20 A+ A+ A+ C -1 C+ B D
 Sat, Jan 17 69 @Mississippi St. W 68 - 67 38% -2  33% 11 - 7 3 - 2 B+ +12 C- -1 C D+ A+ A+ +13 A+ C+ F+
 Tue, Jan 20 33 Auburn L 66 - 78 36% -5  4% 11 - 8 3 - 3 C -0 D+ -4 F+ C+ A+ B- +3 A+ D C
 Sat, Jan 24 25 @Kentucky L 63 - 72 16% -3  11% 11 - 9 3 - 4 B +10 C- -1 F B+ B A +11 A+ D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 14 @Vanderbilt L 68 - 71 10% -7  0% 11 - 10 3 - 5 A +19 B+ +9 B- C+ B A +10 A- B- A-
 Tue, Feb 3 16 @Tennessee L 66 - 84 11% -7  3% 11 - 11 3 - 6 C+ +4 B+ +8 B+ A A- D -5 B F F
 Sat, Feb 7 27 @Texas L 68 - 79 17% -6  16% 11 - 12 3 - 7 B- +7 B- +4 C- C+ A+ B- +2 A F C+
 Wed, Feb 11 19 Alabama L 74 - 93 24% -4  37% 11 - 13 3 - 8 C- -4 C- -2 B- C- A- C -1 A+ F+ F+
 Sat, Feb 14 69 Mississippi St. L 78 - 90 61% -12  0% 11 - 14 3 - 9 D+ -7 B- +5 B- D+ A+ F -12 F A D
 Wed, Feb 18 35 @Texas A&M L 77 - 80 19% +4  70% 11 - 15 3 - 10 B+ +14 A- +10 A+ D- A- B +4 B+ F A-
 Sat, Feb 21 4 Florida L 68 - 80 13%
 Wed, Feb 25 54 LSU W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 33 @Auburn L 71 - 81 18%
 Tue, Mar 3 14 Vanderbilt L 72 - 80 23%
 Sat, Mar 7 94 South Carolina W 73 - 68 69%
Totals 13 - 18 5 - 13 +8 B- +4 B B F B- +4 C+ B- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- A C+ C+ B 27% 46% 39% F C+ C B- C+ A- C B- C B- B+ C+ B- B 31% 23% 45% B B C+ C- C C+ C- B+ C
1.14 69% 40% 35% +4 -2 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 13% .30 75% .23 1.03 51% 37% 32% -4 -1 0.93 29% 1.1 .31 18% .32 69% .21
Nov
3		 SE Louisiana A+ A A+ C+ A 29% 29% 42% D- A- A+ F C+ A A+ A A+ B+ D A+ B+ B 30% 12% 58% F+ C+ C+ A+ A- B- F A F
1.32 71% 57% 35% +10 -2 1.19 44% 0.8 .37 15% .53 83% .44 0.87 62% 0% 28% -9 +1 0.86 26% 0.6 .16 20% .47 60% .28
Nov
7		 Louisiana Monroe D+ C- F A+ C+ 26% 26% 47% F C- F+ A C- D D C D+ B+ A D+ C C- 22% 28% 50% A C+ B B+ B B+ B- A+ A-
1.16 60% 33% 44% +7 -2 1.12 29% 1.4 .39 18% .21 69% .15 0.88 42% 40% 33% -4 -2 0.91 20% 0.9 .18 20% .29 59% .17
Nov
11		 Memphis A+ A+ B A+ A+ 23% 52% 25% F A+ F A+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ D- F+ F+ F+ F 31% 35% 35% A+ F A+ A+ A+ F D+ B- C-
1.23 73% 40% 58% +14 -5 1.19 23% 1.4 .32 10% .54 64% .35 1.14 69% 44% 39% +8 -2 1.13 26% 0.7 .18 10% .33 70% .23
Nov
14		 Cal St. Bakersfield A- F A+ F F+ 44% 25% 31% D+ F+ A D- C+ A+ A- B A- C+ C D A+ D+ 41% 39% 20% C+ C- C C- C- B- F A+ F
1.31 48% 67% 20% -4 0 0.94 47% 0.9 .42 6% .43 76% .33 0.96 56% 41% 22% -3 -2 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 21% .51 64% .32
Nov
18		 Austin Peay C- B- F F F 29% 35% 37% F F B- A+ A+ B A- B- A- B+ A+ B A- A+ 29% 21% 50% B+ A F A D+ C+ A+ F A+
1.06 64% 29% 22% -8 -3 0.82 35% 1.3 .45 16% .37 71% .26 0.95 38% 33% 29% -11 -1 0.79 38% 0.9 .36 18% .12 86% .11
Nov
25		 Iowa B B+ C C- B- 29% 33% 38% F C C- A+ A+ B A- A+ A+ B A+ C+ C A+ 37% 26% 37% A A+ C+ F F F+ F C+ F+
1.07 67% 36% 31% 0 -2 0.98 24% 1.8 .44 20% .39 85% .33 1.15 41% 42% 35% -5 -1 0.91 32% 1.6 .53 11% .42 75% .31
Nov
26		 Utah B- A+ B+ F A+ 30% 43% 26% F B+ A- B- A- D+ B A+ A C F A+ F F 35% 28% 37% A F+ D+ A+ A+ A- F+ C- F+
1.13 86% 45% 25% +8 -4 1.11 37% 1.1 .41 17% .31 82% .26 1.15 75% 23% 53% +12 -1 1.24 33% 0.4 .13 20% .38 75% .29
Dec
2		 Miami (FL) C- F F B D- 16% 40% 44% F F A- B- A- B+ D- A+ C- B- A- C- F D+ 44% 12% 44% D+ D+ F C F A+ B- C+ B-
0.98 33% 23% 38% -8 -4 0.78 32% 1.1 .36 16% .20 82% .16 1.12 53% 40% 47% +7 +2 1.19 50% 1.1 .53 28% .31 67% .21
Dec
6		 St. John's D- C+ F F F+ 43% 28% 28% C- F+ A- F+ C+ F A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 13% 48% C A+ C- C C- A+ F C+ F
0.81 55% 23% 15% -13 -1 0.74 36% 0.8 .28 28% .39 80% .31 0.88 31% 20% 21% -22 +1 0.60 39% 1.2 .47 28% .68 71% .48
Dec
13		 Southern Miss C- A B- F D+ 35% 30% 35% F+ D F A+ C- A A C A C+ A F B+ D- 37% 30% 33% C D B D+ C+ B C- A+ B-
1.06 69% 43% 25% +1 -2 1.00 14% 1.8 .25 12% .44 69% .31 1.00 47% 64% 27% 0 -1 1.00 27% 1.1 .30 21% .38 65% .25
Dec
17		 Alabama A&M B+ A A A+ A+ 36% 26% 38% D- A+ D- D+ D- B+ A+ F A+ C A A+ F F+ 31% 31% 38% B+ D B- F D+ C D A C
1.24 73% 45% 50% +17 -1 1.33 26% 0.9 .23 12% .53 60% .32 1.03 43% 21% 53% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.3 .28 17% .37 65% .24
Dec
21		 North Carolina St. D- A+ C D- B- 19% 23% 57% F C+ D- F F C- B- C- C+ A F A+ C+ C 29% 14% 57% B- C+ A F C- A+ A A+ A+
0.89 78% 36% 30% 0 -2 0.98 19% 0.6 .11 21% .33 67% .22 1.09 87% 14% 34% +6 0 1.14 23% 1.7 .40 23% .24 54% .13
Dec
29		 Alcorn St. C- A+ F B B- 32% 20% 48% F+ C+ B+ F F+ D+ F A+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 40% 28% A+ A+ A C+ B+ D D+ D- D
1.18 81% 30% 38% +8 0 1.18 44% 0.8 .36 19% .15 88% .13 0.64 25% 20% 21% -23 -3 0.50 18% 0.9 .16 16% .27 73% .20
Jan
3		 Oklahoma C F F A C 22% 35% 43% F D+ D- B- D+ A+ B+ D B- D+ C+ F F+ D+ 40% 13% 47% D D+ A- F C D- C A- B-
1.04 45% 28% 41% -2 -3 0.92 24% 1.1 .27 10% .33 70% .23 1.28 57% 57% 40% +6 +1 1.17 28% 1.6 .44 10% .32 68% .22
Jan
7		 Arkansas A A+ A+ B A+ 21% 36% 43% F A+ D+ F F A- A A+ A+ D+ F F+ F+ D 20% 35% 45% A+ C F A+ C+ B+ F C+ F
1.21 91% 53% 35% +13 -3 1.21 26% 0.8 .19 14% .34 81% .27 1.30 80% 47% 41% +12 -3 1.20 42% 1.0 .42 15% .49 73% .36
Jan
10		 Missouri B A F+ A- B- 17% 45% 38% F C- C- A B- A+ B B+ B+ A F A- B D+ 37% 15% 48% C+ C- A+ A+ A+ B- F+ A+ B
1.14 67% 29% 40% +1 -5 0.94 28% 1.1 .31 10% .32 79% .25 1.03 82% 29% 32% +6 +1 1.15 27% 0.9 .24 19% .45 50% .22
Jan
14		 Georgia A+ C+ A- A+ A+ 23% 39% 38% F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ B- B+ B C A+ A+ F C+ 36% 13% 51% C+ C+ F A+ B D F C- F
1.27 57% 46% 48% +11 -4 1.16 36% 1.3 .45 12% .28 74% .21 1.25 35% 29% 50% +3 +1 1.09 46% 0.8 .35 12% .51 76% .39
Jan
17		 Mississippi St. C- B- A+ F B 16% 59% 25% F C C F+ D+ A+ F A- F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 17% 45% D- A+ C+ C C+ F+ F A D
0.97 60% 54% 6% -1 -7 0.87 26% 0.8 .21 7% .15 80% .12 0.96 60% 22% 17% -14 0 0.75 30% 1.0 .30 11% .37 61% .23
Jan
20		 Auburn D+ F B- C D+ 13% 42% 44% F F+ D- A+ C+ A+ D+ A- C B- D- A- A+ A+ 40% 23% 38% B+ A+ D+ D D C F F+ F
1.00 14% 41% 35% -4 -5 0.85 22% 1.4 .30 9% .25 80% .20 1.18 69% 33% 13% -8 0 0.85 42% 1.2 .48 14% .69 82% .56
Jan
24		 Kentucky C- F F C F+ 29% 37% 35% F+ F A C+ B+ B A F+ B A A B- A+ A+ 20% 30% 50% A+ A+ C+ F D+ B+ F C- F
0.94 40% 21% 33% -12 -3 0.73 35% 0.8 .29 15% .37 67% .25 1.07 50% 33% 20% -14 -3 0.70 35% 1.4 .48 18% .69 74% .51
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Vanderbilt B+ A+ C- C- A- 21% 48% 31% F B- A- D- C+ B A+ A- A+ A F C- A+ A 30% 11% 60% C- A- D+ A B- A- F+ A D+
1.06 78% 35% 31% +1 -5 0.95 34% 0.8 .28 17% .47 80% .38 1.11 79% 40% 25% -2 +1 1.00 35% 1.0 .35 17% .40 71% .28
Feb
3		 Tennessee B+ C+ A C+ A 16% 30% 55% F B+ C A+ A A- A D B+ D A+ F C B 31% 21% 48% B+ B D- F+ F F F B- F
1.02 57% 46% 33% +2 -3 1.00 23% 1.6 .37 14% .38 62% .23 1.30 38% 67% 35% +1 -1 1.02 52% 1.2 .64 12% .60 68% .41
Feb
7		 Texas B- C A+ F C+ 17% 38% 44% F C- C+ B- C+ A+ D B+ C- B- A- F A+ B+ 34% 39% 27% A+ A B+ F F C+ D+ F F
1.07 56% 50% 26% -1 -4 0.92 25% 1.0 .25 9% .30 76% .23 1.24 53% 53% 25% 0 -3 0.98 33% 2.2 .74 16% .43 87% .37
Feb
11		 Alabama C- A+ F+ B- B+ 27% 40% 33% F B- D B- C- A- F+ D- F+ C A+ A+ C+ A+ 25% 5% 70% C+ A+ A F F+ F+ D F F
1.00 69% 29% 35% 0 -3 0.95 21% 1.0 .21 11% .20 62% .12 1.26 43% 0% 33% -7 +1 0.91 27% 1.8 .49 8% .38 92% .35
Feb
14		 Mississippi St. B- A+ F C B 23% 33% 44% D B- C- D D+ A+ A- B- A- F F F F F 30% 25% 45% B- F A+ C A D F+ A+ C-
1.10 77% 26% 32% -1 -3 0.95 24% 0.9 .21 8% .32 76% .25 1.27 75% 54% 46% +17 -1 1.34 19% 1.0 .19 13% .36 59% .21
Feb
18		 Texas A&M A- A+ A+ D- A+ 29% 24% 47% D+ A+ F B D- A- D+ A C B C+ F+ A- A- 49% 16% 35% B- B+ F F+ F A- D C+ D+
1.12 93% 58% 29% +12 -1 1.24 16% 1.0 .16 16% .26 80% .21 1.16 58% 50% 29% 0 +1 1.04 46% 1.1 .51 19% .36 75% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.1 2.9 11th
12th 3.0 7.8 1.7 0.0 12.5 12th
13th 3.0 20.0 7.8 0.2 31.0 13th
14th 0.4 16.3 13.8 0.9 31.5 14th
15th 3.2 11.1 0.8 15.1 15th
16th 5.6 1.2 0.0 6.7 16th
Total 9.3 31.6 37.5 17.6 3.8 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.2% 2.1% 2.1% 11.0 0.0 0.2 2.1%
7-11 3.8% 3.8
6-12 17.6% 0.1% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 17.6
5-13 37.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 37.5
4-14 31.6% 31.6
3-15 9.3% 9.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 9.3%