Mississippi
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.0 #60
Expected Predictive Rating +7.8 #73
Pace 64.8 #286
Improvement -0.1 #195

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #77 C C+ A- C+ F
Defense #55 B C C+ C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #363 1.32 #33 -4.4 #326
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% #7 0.80 #113 +6.0 #5
Three Pointers 38% #237 1.06 #113 -0.6 #201
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #142 +1.0 #141
Freethrows 0.31 #171 75% #91 0.23 #143
Second Chance 31.3% #157 1.08 #97 0.34 #119
Turnovers 13.1% #12
Total Offense +4.1 #77

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #339 1.02 #32 +6.5 #18
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #94 0.71 #103 -0.4 #217
Three Pointers 46% #50 0.96 #100 -1.2 #242
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #47 +4.9 #47
Freethrows 0.33 #251 68% #17 0.22 #184
Second Chance 30.3% #169 1.00 #144 0.30 #155
Turnovers 18.3% #101
Total Defense +5.0 #55

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -5.2% #362 -1.6% #55
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.6% #66 -8.1% #49
Possession Length 17.0 #138 18.7 #349
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #222 0.12 #33
Improvement -1.3 #258 +1.2 #122

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 5.7% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.0% 5.5% 1.1%
Average Seed 10.5 10.3 10.7
.500 or above 18.9% 39.1% 13.5%
.500 or above in Conference 4.7% 12.2% 2.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 1.6% 7.4%
First Four1.4% 3.3% 0.8%
First Round1.4% 4.1% 0.7%
Second Round0.4% 1.1% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas (Away) - 21.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 101 - 10
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 13
Quad 22 - 35 - 16
Quad 34 - 28 - 18
Quad 46 - 015 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 280 SE Louisiana W 88 - 58 95% +12  1 - 0 +20 +18 B+ C+ A +4 C+ B+ C+
 Fri, Nov 7 355 Louisiana Monroe W 86 - 65 98% +17  2 - 0 +4 -0 C- C C- +3 C+ B- B-
 Tue, Nov 11 91 Memphis W 83 - 77 72% +5  3 - 0 +9 +18 A+ C+ A+ -9 D- A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 320 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 60 97% +11  4 - 0 +9 +13 D- C+ A+ -2 C- C C+
 Tue, Nov 18 170 Austin Peay W 72 - 65 88% +7  5 - 0 +3 +1 F A+ B+ +3 A D+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 21 Iowa L 69 - 74 22% -2  5 - 1 +12 +10 C A+ B +2 A+ F F+
 Wed, Nov 26 109 Utah L 74 - 75 69% -3  5 - 2 +3 +6 B B+ D+ -4 D- A+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 40 Miami (FL) L 66 - 75 48% -8  5 - 3 +1 -0 F B+ A- +0 C- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 15 @St. John's L 58 - 63 13% -7  5 - 4 +16 -6 F+ C F +22 A+ C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 244 Southern Miss W 71 - 67 90% +3  6 - 4 -1 +1 D+ C- A+ -1 D C B
 Wed, Dec 17 307 Alabama A&M W 80 - 66 94% +13  7 - 4 +5 +11 A+ D A -4 D C- C-
 Sun, Dec 21 23 North Carolina St. L 62 - 76 24% -15  7 - 5 +3 -4 C F C- +7 C+ C- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 351 Alcorn St. W 79 - 43 98% +14  8 - 5 +20 +2 C+ D- C- +19 A+ B D-
 Sat, Jan 3 57 @Oklahoma L 70 - 86 37% -5  8 - 6 0 - 1 -4 +3 D+ C- A+ -8 D C D-
 Wed, Jan 7 24 Arkansas L 87 - 94 33% -7  8 - 7 0 - 2 +6 +15 A+ F A- -8 C- C+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 53 Missouri W 76 - 69 57% -1  9 - 7 1 - 2 +14 +9 C- B- A+ +6 C- A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 14 35 @Georgia W 97 - 95 OT 22% +0  10 - 7 2 - 2 +19 +24 A+ A+ A+ -5 C B- D
 Sat, Jan 17 76 @Mississippi St. W 68 - 67 44% -2  11 - 7 3 - 2 +12 +2 C D+ A+ +10 A+ B- F+
 Tue, Jan 20 28 Auburn L 66 - 78 36% -5  11 - 8 3 - 3 +1 +1 D- C A+ -1 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 26 @Kentucky L 63 - 72 18% -3  11 - 9 3 - 4 +10 +2 F+ B B +8 A+ D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 12 @Vanderbilt L 68 - 71 12% -7  11 - 10 3 - 5 +19 +12 B- B- B +7 A C+ B+
 Tue, Feb 3 16 @Tennessee L 66 - 84 13% -7  11 - 11 3 - 6 +3 +9 B+ A B+ -8 B F F
 Sat, Feb 7 30 @Texas L 71 - 80 21%
 Wed, Feb 11 20 Alabama L 79 - 84 32%
 Sat, Feb 14 76 Mississippi St. W 74 - 70 66%
 Wed, Feb 18 27 @Texas A&M L 71 - 81 19%
 Sat, Feb 21 7 Florida L 69 - 79 18%
 Wed, Feb 25 48 LSU W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 28 @Auburn L 70 - 80 19%
 Wed, Mar 4 12 @Vanderbilt L 68 - 81 12%
 Sat, Mar 7 87 South Carolina W 73 - 67 71%
Totals 14 - 17 6 - 12 +9 +4 C C+ A- +5 B C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.1 1.8 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 1.3 0.1 3.4 9th
10th 0.1 2.5 4.8 0.8 8.3 10th
11th 0.0 2.6 8.1 3.5 0.2 14.4 11th
12th 0.1 2.9 14.5 9.3 0.8 0.0 27.6 12th
13th 0.9 9.7 9.5 1.0 0.0 21.0 13th
14th 0.1 4.7 8.2 1.8 0.1 14.7 14th
15th 1.0 3.9 1.3 0.0 6.2 15th
16th 0.9 0.8 0.1 1.7 16th
Total 1.9 10.4 22.1 28.5 21.1 11.3 4.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.6% 66.1% 3.2% 62.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 65.0%
9-9 4.0% 28.3% 0.5% 27.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 27.9%
8-10 11.3% 3.3% 0.1% 3.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 11.0 3.2%
7-11 21.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 21.0 0.3%
6-12 28.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 28.5
5-13 22.1% 22.1
4-14 10.4% 10.4
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 0.1% 2.0% 10.5 97.9 2.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9%