Mississippi
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.0 #72
Expected Predictive Rating +3.5 #118
Pace 65.7 #281
Improvement -2.3 #300

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #83 C B- C A F
Defense #71 B- B- B- B- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #356 1.31 #40 -3.1 #284
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #12 0.80 #117 +5.2 #10
Three Pointers 39% #228 1.01 #184 -1.2 #228
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #156 +0.9 #156
Freethrows 18.8 #105 75% #97 14.2 #92
Second Chance 30.0% #209 1.08 #143 0.32 #167
Turnovers 13.4% #24
Total Offense +4.0 #83

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #337 1.01 #34 +6.6 #17
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #74 0.72 #139 -1.0 #257
Three Pointers 45% #76 1.04 #211 -2.5 #279
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #87 +3.2 #87
Freethrows 16.8 #167 66% #13 11.1 #282
Second Chance 28.9% #118 1.01 #137 0.29 #119
Turnovers 18.5% #76
Total Defense +4.0 #71

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.3% #357 -2.0% #40
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.3% #84 -4.2% #105
Possession Length 16.9 #139 18.5 #338
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #230 0.13 #51
Improvement -2.9 #336 +0.6 #142

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 4.2% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.6% 4.1% 0.9%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 9.9
.500 or above 12.3% 18.5% 5.5%
.500 or above in Conference 4.9% 7.8% 1.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 44.1% 32.4% 56.7%
First Four1.0% 1.5% 0.4%
First Round2.1% 3.4% 0.7%
Second Round0.8% 1.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri (Home) - 51.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 62 - 14
Quad 22 - 35 - 18
Quad 32 - 17 - 19
Quad 46 - 013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 258 SE Louisiana W 88-58 93%     12.4   1 - 0 +21.3 +18.1 +4.8
  Fri, Nov 7 356 Louisiana Monroe W 86-65 98%     17.4   2 - 0 +4.1 -0.7 +3.6
  Tue, Nov 11 76 Memphis W 83-77 63%     5.0   3 - 0 +10.6 +18.2 -7.4
  Fri, Nov 14 289 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82-60 94%     11.3   4 - 0 +11.8 +14.3 +0.1
  Tue, Nov 18 207 Austin Peay W 72-65 89%     7.3   5 - 0 +1.3 +1.0 +0.5
  Tue, Nov 25 21 Iowa L 69-74 22%     -2.3   5 - 1 +11.2 +10.0 +0.8
  Wed, Nov 26 118 Utah L 74-75 68%     -3.4   5 - 2 +2.1 +6.2 -4.1
  Tue, Dec 2 36 Miami (FL) L 66-75 40%     -8.3   5 - 3 +1.5 +0.8 +0.3
  Sat, Dec 6 20 @St. John's L 58-63 15%     -5.3   5 - 4 +14.2 -6.6 +20.9
  Sat, Dec 13 205 Southern Miss W 71-67 84%     3.1   6 - 4 +1.4 +0.4 +1.1
  Wed, Dec 17 299 Alabama A&M W 80-66 92%     13.3   7 - 4 +6.2 +10.9 -3.5
  Sun, Dec 21 33 North Carolina St. L 62-76 29%     -14.8   7 - 5 -0.2 -5.1 +4.8
  Mon, Dec 29 345 Alcorn St. W 79-43 97%     14.3   8 - 5 +21.0 +2.3 +20.4
  Sat, Jan 3 49 @Oklahoma L 70-86 29%     -4.6   8 - 6 0 - 1 -2.3 +4.4 -7.3
  Wed, Jan 7 19 Arkansas L 87-94 30%     -6.6   8 - 7 0 - 2 +6.4 +15.4 -8.7
  Sat, Jan 10 52 Missouri W 75-74 52%    
  Wed, Jan 14 24 @Georgia L 75-86 16%    
  Sat, Jan 17 56 @Mississippi St. L 70-75 33%    
  Tue, Jan 20 32 Auburn L 74-77 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 27 @Kentucky L 68-78 18%    
  Sat, Jan 31 7 Vanderbilt L 72-81 19%    
  Tue, Feb 3 16 @Tennessee L 64-76 12%    
  Sat, Feb 7 45 @Texas L 73-79 29%    
  Wed, Feb 11 13 Alabama L 79-86 25%    
  Sat, Feb 14 56 Mississippi St. W 73-72 55%    
  Wed, Feb 18 40 @Texas A&M L 74-82 24%    
  Sat, Feb 21 12 Florida L 70-77 25%    
  Wed, Feb 25 42 LSU L 73-74 46%    
  Sat, Feb 28 32 @Auburn L 71-80 21%    
  Wed, Mar 4 7 @Vanderbilt L 69-84 8%    
  Sat, Mar 7 73 South Carolina W 72-69 61%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.2 2.2 1.8 0.1 4.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.6 3.5 0.7 0.0 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 4.4 2.6 0.1 7.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 3.9 5.2 0.9 0.0 10.4 13th
14th 0.4 3.5 7.1 2.9 0.1 14.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.7 4.1 8.3 5.1 0.6 18.7 15th
16th 0.7 3.5 8.3 9.8 6.0 1.1 0.0 29.4 16th
Total 0.7 3.5 9.0 14.3 18.3 18.1 14.9 10.1 6.2 3.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 7.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 96.3% 3.7% 92.6% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.2%
11-7 0.5% 84.7% 6.1% 78.6% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 83.7%
10-8 1.2% 64.7% 64.7% 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 64.7%
9-9 3.1% 32.5% 0.2% 32.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 2.1 32.3%
8-10 6.2% 4.0% 0.1% 4.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.9 4.0%
7-11 10.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.1 0.3%
6-12 14.9% 0.1% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 14.9
5-13 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 18.1
4-14 18.3% 18.3
3-15 14.3% 14.3
2-16 9.0% 9.0
1-17 3.5% 3.5
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 2.6% 0.1% 2.6% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 97.4 2.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%