Wisconsin
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#29
Expected Predictive Rating+16.8#12
Pace63.0#320
Improvement+1.0#89

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#80
First Shot+1.3#135
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#55
Layup/Dunks-0.5#180
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#191
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#159
Freethrows+2.1#61
Improvement+1.3#60

Defense
Total Defense+8.6#7
First Shot+5.5#33
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#28
Layups/Dunks+3.8#53
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#186
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#233
Freethrows+2.9#25
Improvement-0.3#206
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
#1 Seed 2.8% 3.8% 1.3%
Top 2 Seed 7.6% 10.1% 3.4%
Top 4 Seed 24.9% 31.1% 14.8%
Top 6 Seed 46.2% 53.1% 34.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.4% 86.9% 72.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.3% 86.0% 71.2%
Average Seed 6.1 5.8 6.8
.500 or above 92.6% 96.2% 86.9%
.500 or above in Conference 68.6% 72.6% 61.9%
Conference Champion 5.7% 6.8% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.4% 3.1%
First Four4.7% 4.0% 6.0%
First Round78.9% 84.6% 69.7%
Second Round50.9% 56.3% 42.1%
Sweet Sixteen23.3% 26.7% 17.9%
Elite Eight10.4% 12.2% 7.5%
Final Four4.4% 5.1% 3.4%
Championship Game1.4% 1.6% 1.1%
National Champion0.5% 0.4% 0.6%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Away) - 61.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 8
Quad 26 - 313 - 11
Quad 33 - 116 - 12
Quad 45 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 331   St. Francis Brooklyn W 81-58 98%     1 - 0 +8.9 -1.5 +10.0
  Nov 12, 2021 301   Green Bay W 72-34 97%     2 - 0 +27.3 +1.5 +30.3
  Nov 15, 2021 54   Providence L 58-63 75%     2 - 1 +0.4 -9.4 +9.4
  Nov 22, 2021 80   Texas A&M W 69-58 70%     3 - 1 +17.8 +5.2 +13.1
  Nov 23, 2021 7   Houston W 65-63 31%     4 - 1 +19.6 +8.7 +11.1
  Nov 24, 2021 41   St. Mary's W 61-55 57%     5 - 1 +16.6 +4.5 +12.9
  Dec 01, 2021 88   @ Georgia Tech W 65-62 62%    
  Dec 04, 2021 62   Marquette W 73-65 78%    
  Dec 08, 2021 34   Indiana W 66-62 63%    
  Dec 11, 2021 25   @ Ohio St. L 64-68 36%    
  Dec 15, 2021 233   Nicholls St. W 76-57 96%    
  Dec 23, 2021 314   Morgan St. W 79-55 99%    
  Dec 29, 2021 241   Illinois St. W 78-59 96%    
  Jan 03, 2022 2   @ Purdue L 62-73 16%    
  Jan 06, 2022 19   Iowa W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 09, 2022 52   @ Maryland W 64-63 52%    
  Jan 13, 2022 25   Ohio St. W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 18, 2022 47   @ Northwestern L 65-66 49%    
  Jan 21, 2022 22   Michigan St. W 64-63 57%    
  Jan 25, 2022 107   @ Nebraska W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 30, 2022 94   Minnesota W 68-58 80%    
  Feb 02, 2022 30   @ Illinois L 66-69 42%    
  Feb 05, 2022 67   Penn St. W 64-56 77%    
  Feb 08, 2022 22   @ Michigan St. L 61-66 36%    
  Feb 12, 2022 87   Rutgers W 66-57 79%    
  Feb 15, 2022 34   @ Indiana L 63-65 41%    
  Feb 20, 2022 15   Michigan W 64-63 53%    
  Feb 23, 2022 94   @ Minnesota W 65-61 63%    
  Feb 26, 2022 87   @ Rutgers W 63-60 61%    
  Mar 01, 2022 2   Purdue L 65-70 33%    
  Mar 06, 2022 107   Nebraska W 74-63 84%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.2 5.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 3.0 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.0 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 4.2 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.4 3.7 1.6 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.0 4.5 1.6 0.1 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.9 1.6 0.1 10.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 4.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 4.5 2.6 0.4 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.6 0.7 6.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.5 0.6 0.1 6.1 10th
11th 0.2 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.1 4.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.1 3.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 2.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.9 5.6 7.5 10.7 11.7 12.6 12.1 11.0 9.0 6.1 3.6 1.7 0.6 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 96.3% 0.6    0.5 0.0
17-3 72.7% 1.3    0.9 0.4
16-4 51.3% 1.8    1.0 0.7 0.2
15-5 22.5% 1.4    0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1
14-6 4.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 34.0% 66.0% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.7% 100.0% 31.1% 68.9% 1.7 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.6% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 2.3 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.1% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 3.0 0.5 1.5 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.1 100.0%
14-6 9.0% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 3.8 0.2 0.7 2.7 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.0% 100.0% 7.0% 93.0% 4.9 0.4 1.3 2.5 3.2 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.1 100.0%
12-8 12.1% 99.8% 5.5% 94.4% 5.9 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.0 3.5 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-9 12.6% 98.7% 3.2% 95.5% 6.9 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.9 3.8 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 98.6%
10-10 11.7% 94.7% 1.7% 93.0% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.5 2.8 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.6 94.6%
9-11 10.7% 82.5% 1.0% 81.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.0 1.8 2.1 0.6 0.0 1.9 82.3%
8-12 7.5% 52.0% 1.4% 50.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.6 51.3%
7-13 5.6% 14.0% 14.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 4.8 14.0%
6-14 3.9% 3.3% 3.3% 11.5 0.1 0.1 3.7 3.3%
5-15 2.2% 2.2
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 81.4% 5.6% 75.8% 6.1 2.8 4.7 7.8 9.5 10.1 11.3 10.7 7.9 5.9 3.9 4.7 2.0 0.1 0.0 18.6 80.3%