Wisconsin
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#21
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#64
Pace68.7#182
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#22
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#33
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.8% 3.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 9.6% 9.7% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 25.7% 25.9% 7.1%
Top 6 Seed 43.0% 43.2% 17.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 71.9% 72.1% 43.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.5% 70.7% 41.8%
Average Seed 5.8 5.8 7.3
.500 or above 86.6% 86.8% 59.5%
.500 or above in Conference 67.3% 67.5% 42.1%
Conference Champion 5.0% 5.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.5% 5.2%
First Four5.2% 5.1% 8.7%
First Round69.5% 69.8% 38.1%
Second Round51.4% 51.6% 23.0%
Sweet Sixteen25.4% 25.6% 7.1%
Elite Eight11.4% 11.5% 3.6%
Final Four4.9% 4.9% 1.2%
Championship Game2.0% 2.1% 0.4%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Home) - 99.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 9
Quad 26 - 212 - 11
Quad 33 - 015 - 11
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 229   Campbell W 96-64 97%     1 - 0 +25.4 +18.4 +6.5
  Nov 07, 2025 305   Northern Illinois W 87-62 99%    
  Nov 11, 2025 222   Ball St. W 83-62 98%    
  Nov 17, 2025 237   SIU Edwardsville W 80-58 98%    
  Nov 21, 2025 12   BYU L 73-76 40%    
  Nov 27, 2025 69   Providence W 78-71 73%    
  Dec 03, 2025 62   Northwestern W 73-64 79%    
  Dec 06, 2025 45   Marquette W 77-71 70%    
  Dec 10, 2025 51   @ Nebraska W 73-72 53%    
  Dec 19, 2025 44   Villanova W 69-66 61%    
  Dec 22, 2025 273   Central Michigan W 84-60 98%    
  Dec 30, 2025 215   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85-64 96%    
  Jan 03, 2026 2   Purdue L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 06, 2026 20   UCLA W 72-69 58%    
  Jan 10, 2026 5   @ Michigan L 72-80 24%    
  Jan 13, 2026 72   @ Minnesota W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 17, 2026 82   Rutgers W 79-68 83%    
  Jan 22, 2026 99   @ Penn St. W 78-71 72%    
  Jan 25, 2026 26   USC W 76-72 62%    
  Jan 28, 2026 72   Minnesota W 73-63 81%    
  Jan 31, 2026 25   Ohio St. W 82-78 62%    
  Feb 07, 2026 30   @ Indiana L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 10, 2026 9   @ Illinois L 75-82 29%    
  Feb 13, 2026 23   Michigan St. W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 17, 2026 25   @ Ohio St. L 79-81 42%    
  Feb 22, 2026 32   Iowa W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 25, 2026 39   @ Oregon L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 28, 2026 50   @ Washington W 74-73 53%    
  Mar 04, 2026 46   Maryland W 77-71 70%    
  Mar 07, 2026 2   @ Purdue L 67-78 18%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 2.8 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.2 3.0 1.0 0.1 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.8 1.2 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.1 0.6 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 2.0 3.8 1.2 0.1 7.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.0 0.2 6.6 10th
11th 0.4 2.4 2.6 0.5 0.0 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.6 1.0 0.1 5.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.3 0.2 4.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.0 15th
16th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.5 4.0 6.1 7.8 9.8 10.8 11.3 11.4 10.4 8.2 6.5 4.5 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.1% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 86.8% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
17-3 59.9% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
16-4 30.0% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 8.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 40.9% 59.1% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.2% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.6% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 1.8 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.5% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 2.4 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.5% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 3.1 0.5 1.5 2.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.2% 100.0% 8.7% 91.3% 4.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 2.4 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.4% 99.8% 5.3% 94.5% 5.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.3 2.7 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 11.4% 98.4% 3.0% 95.3% 6.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 2.7 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.3%
11-9 11.3% 94.8% 1.5% 93.3% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.5 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.6 94.7%
10-10 10.8% 80.5% 1.3% 79.2% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.0 2.1 80.2%
9-11 9.8% 54.0% 0.5% 53.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.3 0.1 4.5 53.8%
8-12 7.8% 24.7% 0.2% 24.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.1 5.9 24.5%
7-13 6.1% 5.3% 5.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.8 5.3%
6-14 4.0% 0.6% 0.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.6%
5-15 2.5% 2.5
4-16 1.5% 1.5
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 71.9% 4.8% 67.1% 5.8 3.8 5.9 7.8 8.3 8.9 8.4 8.0 6.7 5.6 5.0 3.4 0.2 0.0 28.1 70.5%