Wisconsin
Big Ten
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#35
Expected Predictive Rating+10.7#55
Pace64.4#289
Improvement-0.3#261

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#117
First Shot-0.1#170
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#65
Layup/Dunks-2.0#252
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#66
Freethrows+1.2#107
Improvement-0.2#253

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#12
First Shot+8.5#16
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#158
Layups/Dunks+3.7#60
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#69
Freethrows+3.1#27
Improvement-0.1#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 1.7% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 4.9% 10.3% 2.8%
Top 6 Seed 14.9% 27.1% 10.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.8% 68.7% 42.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 47.8% 67.0% 40.5%
Average Seed 7.8 7.2 8.2
.500 or above 78.3% 91.2% 73.3%
.500 or above in Conference 52.9% 63.5% 48.8%
Conference Champion 1.9% 2.9% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.8% 2.3%
First Four5.5% 5.4% 5.6%
First Round47.3% 66.2% 40.0%
Second Round26.3% 39.0% 21.4%
Sweet Sixteen9.5% 15.5% 7.2%
Elite Eight3.8% 6.5% 2.7%
Final Four1.4% 2.5% 1.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Marquette (Away) - 27.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 10
Quad 25 - 39 - 12
Quad 33 - 113 - 13
Quad 45 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 230   South Dakota W 85-59 94%     1 - 0 +19.4 +8.4 +11.7
  Nov 11, 2022 79   Stanford W 60-50 65%     2 - 0 +17.0 -4.7 +22.1
  Nov 15, 2022 362   Green Bay W 56-45 99%     3 - 0 -9.1 -18.4 +10.9
  Nov 23, 2022 74   Dayton W 43-42 63%     4 - 0 +8.4 -17.3 +25.9
  Nov 24, 2022 20   Kansas L 68-69 OT 35%     4 - 1 +13.8 +2.8 +11.0
  Nov 25, 2022 73   USC W 64-59 63%     5 - 1 +12.6 +4.1 +9.1
  Nov 29, 2022 66   Wake Forest L 75-78 72%     5 - 2 +2.0 +4.7 -2.7
  Dec 03, 2022 21   @ Marquette L 65-71 28%    
  Dec 06, 2022 12   Maryland L 64-67 37%    
  Dec 11, 2022 24   @ Iowa L 68-74 29%    
  Dec 15, 2022 296   Lehigh W 78-56 98%    
  Dec 23, 2022 242   Grambling St. W 72-54 95%    
  Dec 30, 2022 312   Western Michigan W 77-54 98%    
  Jan 03, 2023 166   Minnesota W 66-52 90%    
  Jan 07, 2023 10   @ Illinois L 63-72 20%    
  Jan 10, 2023 37   Michigan St. W 65-62 61%    
  Jan 14, 2023 7   @ Indiana L 60-70 18%    
  Jan 17, 2023 43   Penn St. W 65-61 64%    
  Jan 21, 2023 90   @ Northwestern W 59-57 58%    
  Jan 25, 2023 12   @ Maryland L 61-70 20%    
  Jan 28, 2023 10   Illinois L 66-69 38%    
  Feb 02, 2023 23   @ Ohio St. L 64-70 29%    
  Feb 05, 2023 90   Northwestern W 62-54 77%    
  Feb 08, 2023 43   @ Penn St. L 62-64 42%    
  Feb 11, 2023 92   @ Nebraska W 65-63 58%    
  Feb 14, 2023 58   Michigan W 69-64 68%    
  Feb 18, 2023 39   Rutgers W 63-60 62%    
  Feb 22, 2023 24   Iowa L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 26, 2023 58   @ Michigan L 66-67 46%    
  Mar 02, 2023 3   Purdue L 62-68 31%    
  Mar 05, 2023 166   @ Minnesota W 63-55 75%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.1 0.9 0.1 5.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.5 1.8 0.2 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.0 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.5 3.2 0.4 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.4 3.8 0.6 0.0 12.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 4.7 3.7 0.9 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 4.0 3.5 0.9 0.0 9.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.9 0.9 0.1 7.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.8 0.7 0.1 5.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.9 6.2 9.4 11.6 13.0 13.5 11.9 10.5 7.4 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 93.5% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 74.0% 0.4    0.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 45.1% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 15.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.6% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 2.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.4% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 3.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.7% 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 4.7% 99.8% 7.2% 92.7% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 7.4% 99.0% 6.8% 92.2% 6.5 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
12-8 10.5% 96.4% 5.0% 91.3% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.9 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 96.2%
11-9 11.9% 85.3% 4.4% 80.8% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.9 2.6 1.8 0.8 0.1 1.7 84.6%
10-10 13.5% 61.3% 3.4% 57.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.2 60.0%
9-11 13.0% 25.2% 3.0% 22.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7 23.0%
8-12 11.6% 6.2% 2.5% 3.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.9 3.7%
7-13 9.4% 2.3% 2.2% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.2 0.1%
6-14 6.2% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.1
5-15 3.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.9
4-16 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.0% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 49.8% 3.9% 45.9% 7.8 0.2 0.5 1.6 2.6 4.1 5.9 7.6 8.1 6.5 5.6 4.8 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 50.2 47.8%