St. Peter's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#263
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#289
Pace60.6#346
Improvement+0.7#108

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#321
First Shot-8.4#354
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#15
Layup/Dunks-5.0#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#267
Freethrows-2.0#320
Improvement-0.2#235

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#178
First Shot-1.2#219
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#82
Layups/Dunks+0.8#143
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#125
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#51
Freethrows-6.1#363
Improvement+0.9#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 0.9% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.0% 6.1% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 8.3% 20.0% 6.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.7% 3.7% 12.1%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
First Round0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Away) - 16.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 49 - 811 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Jan 13, 2022 133   @ Quinnipiac L 60-70 16%    
  Nov 07, 2022 320   NJIT W 73-59 73%     1 - 0 +2.3 -0.9 +3.8
  Nov 12, 2022 41   @ Seton Hall L 44-80 5%     1 - 1 -22.5 -17.8 -5.7
  Nov 15, 2022 295   Bucknell W 82-71 67%     2 - 1 +1.1 +14.9 -12.4
  Nov 19, 2022 349   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 58-61 66%     2 - 2 -12.7 -16.2 +3.4
  Nov 27, 2022 307   Fairleigh Dickinson W 77-63 69%     3 - 2 +3.3 +0.2 +4.1
  Dec 01, 2022 290   Mount St. Mary's L 58-73 65%     3 - 3 0 - 1 -24.6 -9.5 -16.9
  Dec 03, 2022 232   @ Fairfield L 55-67 33%     3 - 4 0 - 2 -12.9 -11.1 -3.0
  Dec 10, 2022 162   @ Saint Joseph's L 57-73 21%     3 - 5 -13.0 -12.3 -1.1
  Dec 13, 2022 360   @ Hartford W 58-57 80%     4 - 5 -13.2 -16.7 +3.6
  Dec 18, 2022 133   Quinnipiac W 63-56 33%     5 - 5 1 - 2 +6.1 -4.2 +10.9
  Dec 22, 2022 31   @ Maryland L 45-75 4%     5 - 6 -14.9 -13.8 -5.0
  Dec 30, 2022 294   Manhattan W 67-57 66%     6 - 6 2 - 2 +0.3 -11.0 +11.2
  Jan 01, 2023 85   @ Iona L 55-73 10%     6 - 7 2 - 3 -9.4 -3.7 -8.8
  Jan 06, 2023 151   @ Siena L 60-70 20%     6 - 8 2 - 4 -6.4 -5.9 -1.3
  Jan 08, 2023 281   Canisius L 60-67 OT 64%     6 - 9 2 - 5 -16.1 -8.8 -8.3
  Jan 13, 2023 133   @ Quinnipiac L 51-58 17%     6 - 10 2 - 6 -2.4 -13.3 +10.2
  Jan 15, 2023 232   Fairfield L 52-56 54%     6 - 11 2 - 7 -10.4 -11.7 +0.4
  Jan 20, 2023 316   @ Marist W 61-57 50%     7 - 11 3 - 7 -1.5 -6.2 +5.1
  Jan 22, 2023 239   Niagara L 57-59 55%     7 - 12 3 - 8 -8.7 -6.9 -2.2
  Jan 28, 2023 290   @ Mount St. Mary's W 73-62 45%     8 - 12 4 - 8 +6.9 +12.7 -4.1
  Feb 03, 2023 196   @ Rider L 60-67 25%    
  Feb 10, 2023 316   Marist W 63-57 70%    
  Feb 12, 2023 294   @ Manhattan L 63-64 45%    
  Feb 19, 2023 85   Iona L 61-70 22%    
  Feb 24, 2023 281   @ Canisius L 63-65 42%    
  Feb 26, 2023 239   @ Niagara L 57-61 34%    
  Mar 02, 2023 196   Rider L 63-64 46%    
  Mar 04, 2023 151   Siena L 61-65 38%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.4 0.9 0.1 4.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 6.3 3.0 0.3 12.4 6th
7th 0.2 5.2 12.3 6.3 0.8 0.0 24.8 7th
8th 0.1 4.7 13.8 7.1 0.8 0.0 26.5 8th
9th 0.0 2.2 9.8 6.0 0.5 0.0 18.6 9th
10th 0.5 3.8 3.8 0.4 0.0 8.6 10th
11th 1.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 3.6 11th
Total 1.7 8.1 19.0 25.5 22.8 14.6 6.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.3% 2.5% 2.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-9 1.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 1.6
10-10 6.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 6.2
9-11 14.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 14.4
8-12 22.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 22.6
7-13 25.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 25.3
6-14 19.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 18.9
5-15 8.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.1
4-16 1.7% 1.7
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%