St. Peter's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#202
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#221
Pace69.5#170
Improvement-1.1#264

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#296
First Shot-2.5#250
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#292
Layup/Dunks+2.2#100
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#158
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#309
Freethrows-0.2#198
Improvement-0.5#238

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#92
First Shot-0.8#200
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#19
Layups/Dunks+6.2#21
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#187
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#164
Freethrows-7.5#358
Improvement-0.6#242
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 11.3% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 59.4% 70.1% 43.7%
.500 or above in Conference 68.4% 78.6% 53.4%
Conference Champion 10.0% 13.4% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 1.9% 7.9%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.4%
First Round9.3% 11.0% 6.8%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Away) - 59.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 43 - 9
Quad 412 - 515 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 54-57 15%     0 - 1 +6.5 -7.7 +14.4
  Nov 13, 2021 61   @ St. John's L 70-91 13%     0 - 2 -10.4 -2.7 -6.3
  Nov 23, 2021 276   LIU Brooklyn W 64-62 76%     1 - 2 -7.2 -20.9 +13.5
  Nov 27, 2021 54   @ Providence L 71-85 11%     1 - 3 -2.6 +8.8 -12.6
  Dec 03, 2021 294   @ Quinnipiac W 71-69 60%    
  Dec 05, 2021 275   Siena W 67-60 76%    
  Dec 08, 2021 331   St. Francis Brooklyn W 75-63 86%    
  Dec 18, 2021 219   @ Stony Brook L 65-67 41%    
  Dec 22, 2021 325   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-70 68%    
  Dec 31, 2021 284   Canisius W 74-66 77%    
  Jan 02, 2022 255   @ Marist W 64-63 51%    
  Jan 07, 2022 106   Iona L 65-68 39%    
  Jan 09, 2022 253   @ Manhattan W 64-63 51%    
  Jan 14, 2022 135   Monmouth L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 16, 2022 266   @ Rider W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 21, 2022 180   @ Niagara L 61-65 36%    
  Jan 23, 2022 284   @ Canisius W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 28, 2022 253   Manhattan W 67-61 71%    
  Jan 30, 2022 106   @ Iona L 62-71 21%    
  Feb 04, 2022 294   Quinnipiac W 74-66 77%    
  Feb 06, 2022 255   Marist W 67-61 70%    
  Feb 11, 2022 266   Rider W 69-62 73%    
  Feb 18, 2022 237   @ Fairfield L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 20, 2022 275   @ Siena W 64-63 55%    
  Feb 25, 2022 135   @ Monmouth L 67-74 27%    
  Feb 27, 2022 180   Niagara W 64-62 56%    
  Mar 05, 2022 237   Fairfield W 67-62 67%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.1 10.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.0 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 4.3 5.1 3.1 0.8 0.1 14.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.8 5.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 14.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.6 4.1 1.5 0.1 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.4 3.9 1.0 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 1.0 2.7 3.2 0.7 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.6 0.6 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 5.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.6 0.3 0.1 3.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.2 4.0 5.7 7.2 10.3 11.0 11.2 12.0 10.9 8.6 6.5 4.4 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 95.1% 1.2    1.2 0.1
17-3 84.8% 2.0    1.4 0.5 0.0
16-4 64.6% 2.8    1.5 1.2 0.1
15-5 33.4% 2.2    0.9 1.0 0.3
14-6 13.3% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1
13-7 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.0% 10.0 5.4 3.3 1.1 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 64.7% 64.7% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 47.1% 47.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 1.3% 39.1% 39.1% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.8
17-3 2.3% 38.3% 38.3% 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.4
16-4 4.4% 28.1% 28.1% 14.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.2
15-5 6.5% 17.9% 17.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 5.3
14-6 8.6% 15.0% 15.0% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 7.3
13-7 10.9% 13.4% 13.4% 15.2 0.2 0.9 0.4 9.4
12-8 12.0% 11.3% 11.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 10.7
11-9 11.2% 6.1% 6.1% 15.6 0.3 0.4 10.5
10-10 11.0% 3.9% 3.9% 15.7 0.1 0.3 10.6
9-11 10.3% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.0
8-12 7.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 7.0
7-13 5.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.6
6-14 4.0% 4.0
5-15 2.2% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 2.1
4-16 1.6% 1.6
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.2 3.8 2.5 90.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 7.8 45.5 50.0 4.5