St. Peter's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.1 #234
Expected Predictive Rating -3.1 #214
Pace 64.4 #299
Improvement +3.9 #34

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #276 D- C+ C- C+ C-
Defense #165 C D B F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #286 0.99 #346 -5.2 #339
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #163 0.72 #232 +0.0 #172
Three Pointers 44% #130 0.89 #328 -1.3 #230
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #345 -6.4 #345
Freethrows 0.31 #173 75% #84 0.23 #135
Second Chance 35.0% #66 0.96 #274 0.34 #126
Turnovers 18.2% #261
Total Offense -4.0 #276

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #74 1.14 #154 -2.1 #250
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #241 0.69 #69 +1.4 #75
Three Pointers 39% #244 1.03 #207 +0.8 #144
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #176 +0.1 #177
Freethrows 0.41 #362 74% #290 0.30 #361
Second Chance 35.6% #334 1.04 #202 0.37 #310
Turnovers 19.7% #44
Total Defense -0.1 #165

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #242 1.1% #278
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.0% #347 -1.4% #157
Possession Length 19.0 #334 16.6 #65
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #91 0.21 #295
Improvement +1.2 #105 +2.7 #50

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 10.6% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 87.2% 94.8% 75.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 100.0% 98.9%
Conference Champion 12.8% 17.8% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 1.2% 1.9%
First Round8.7% 10.1% 6.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Away) - 61.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 413 - 616 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 53 @Seton Hall L 50 - 77 6% -16  0 - 1 -14 -4 F C- C- -14 C F D-
 Sat, Nov 8 343 Fairleigh Dickinson W 93 - 83 84% +7  1 - 1 -5 +8 B- C+ C+ -13 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 52 @Virginia Commonwealth L 61 - 78 6% -10  1 - 2 -4 -5 F B- D +1 D- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 288 @Delaware L 70 - 81 51% -14  1 - 3 -15 -1 C D- B -15 F C+ B-
 Sat, Nov 22 314 Umass Lowell W 68 - 66 78% +2  2 - 3 -10 -12 F B+ D- +2 F C A+
 Sat, Nov 29 228 Dartmouth L 61 - 87 60% -7  2 - 4 -33 -11 F C D -23 F F F+
 Fri, Dec 5 348 Canisius W 69 - 57 85% +6  3 - 4 1 - 0 -3 -3 F A- C +1 A+ D- C
 Sun, Dec 7 344 Niagara W 71 - 43 84% +13  4 - 4 2 - 0 +13 +3 D A C+ +15 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 78 @Georgetown L 68 - 76 OT 10% -7  4 - 5 +2 -1 D- F+ C +3 C+ D A+
 Mon, Dec 29 272 @Fairfield W 70 - 66 47% -1  5 - 5 3 - 0 +1 -3 F D- C +3 B+ F+ B-
 Fri, Jan 2 160 Marist W 69 - 59 47% +3  6 - 5 4 - 0 +7 +1 F A+ B- +6 A+ A- C
 Fri, Jan 9 290 @Mount St. Mary's L 65 - 70 51% -1  6 - 6 4 - 1 -9 -6 F D F+ -4 A- F D
 Sun, Jan 11 201 Merrimack W 76 - 63 56% +9  7 - 6 5 - 1 +7 +12 A A D- -3 A- F B
 Wed, Jan 14 187 @Quinnipiac W 74 - 70 31% +4  8 - 6 6 - 1 +5 +3 B- F D+ +2 C C- D+
 Sat, Jan 17 351 Rider W 69 - 58 86% +4  9 - 6 7 - 1 -5 -3 D B+ D+ -0 C+ F A+
 Mon, Jan 19 233 Iona W 77 - 63 61% +3  10 - 6 8 - 1 +7 +5 B D D +3 A+ D F+
 Sat, Jan 24 201 @Merrimack L 59 - 67 33% -11  10 - 7 8 - 2 -8 -5 F B- F -3 C D- C+
 Fri, Jan 30 290 Mount St. Mary's W 66 - 58 73% +1  11 - 7 9 - 2 -2 -0 D C+ C -1 B- D B+
 Sun, Feb 1 351 @Rider L 78 - 81 71% +6  11 - 8 9 - 3 -13 +6 D- A+ C -19 F A+ C-
 Thu, Feb 5 327 @Manhattan W 74 - 71 62%
 Sat, Feb 7 175 Siena W 68 - 67 51%
 Fri, Feb 13 274 @Sacred Heart L 73 - 74 46%
 Sun, Feb 15 272 Fairfield W 73 - 68 69%
 Fri, Feb 20 233 @Iona L 68 - 71 38%
 Sun, Feb 22 175 @Siena L 65 - 71 30%
 Fri, Feb 27 327 Manhattan W 77 - 68 80%
 Sun, Mar 1 160 @Marist L 60 - 67 26%
Totals 15 - 12 13 - 7 -4 -4 D- C+ C- +0 C D B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.7 6.2 3.3 0.5 12.8 1st
2nd 0.0 2.2 11.1 5.0 0.5 0.0 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 10.3 7.1 0.3 18.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 8.0 11.0 0.9 20.6 4th
5th 0.3 5.4 11.1 2.3 0.0 19.1 5th
6th 1.5 4.3 1.5 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.2 0.4 0.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.4 3.4 11.1 21.7 25.9 21.8 11.4 3.8 0.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 96.1% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-4 87.4% 3.3    2.3 1.0 0.0
15-5 54.1% 6.2    1.6 3.2 1.3 0.1
14-6 12.5% 2.7    0.2 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.1
13-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.8% 12.8 4.5 4.8 2.4 0.9 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.5% 21.6% 21.6% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.4
16-4 3.8% 17.6% 17.6% 14.9 0.1 0.5 0.0 3.1
15-5 11.4% 16.1% 16.1% 15.2 0.3 1.0 0.6 9.6
14-6 21.8% 12.5% 12.5% 15.4 0.1 1.4 1.2 19.1
13-7 25.9% 8.6% 8.6% 15.6 0.0 0.9 1.3 23.6
12-8 21.7% 5.8% 5.8% 15.8 0.3 1.0 20.5
11-9 11.1% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.4 10.7
10-10 3.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 3.4
9-11 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 15.4 90.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%