Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#197
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#172
Pace69.7#179
Improvement-1.9#297

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#279
First Shot-3.9#288
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#194
Layup/Dunks+0.6#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#168
Freethrows-2.7#320
Improvement-0.2#191

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#119
First Shot-1.7#226
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#10
Layups/Dunks-3.1#291
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#264
Freethrows+2.1#49
Improvement-1.7#308
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.0% 16.6% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 79.2% 81.9% 58.2%
.500 or above in Conference 86.3% 88.5% 68.3%
Conference Champion 20.5% 22.1% 7.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 3.2%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.9%
First Round15.5% 16.2% 10.4%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 88.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 414 - 517 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 324 @Air Force W 74-54 67%     1 - 0 +13.1 -1.7 +14.4
  Tue, Nov 11 103 @Wyoming L 65-79 17%     1 - 1 -6.3 -10.2 +5.1
  Sat, Nov 15 296 @UNC Greensboro W 69-63 58%     2 - 1 +1.6 -9.7 +11.1
  Tue, Nov 18 60 @Mississippi L 65-72 10%     2 - 2 +4.9 +0.7 +4.0
  Fri, Nov 21 93 @Tulsa L 75-84 14%     2 - 3 +0.0 +5.6 -5.8
  Tue, Nov 25 322 Northern Illinois W 77-59 83%     3 - 3 +5.2 +3.3 +3.4
  Wed, Dec 3 129 @Kent St. L 84-96 24%     3 - 4 -7.1 +8.8 -15.3
  Sun, Dec 7 217 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50-63 43%     3 - 5 -13.5 -21.6 +7.9
  Fri, Dec 12 136 East Tennessee St. W 76-75 46%     4 - 5 -0.5 +1.2 -1.7
  Thu, Jan 1 347 North Florida W 86-73 89%    
  Sat, Jan 3 317 Jacksonville W 73-63 82%    
  Thu, Jan 8 186 @Florida Gulf Coast L 72-76 36%    
  Sat, Jan 10 349 @Stetson W 74-67 74%    
  Thu, Jan 15 255 Eastern Kentucky W 75-69 71%    
  Sat, Jan 17 154 @Lipscomb L 70-76 30%    
  Thu, Jan 22 186 Florida Gulf Coast W 75-73 59%    
  Sat, Jan 24 349 Stetson W 77-64 88%    
  Wed, Jan 28 255 @Eastern Kentucky L 71-72 50%    
  Sat, Jan 31 315 @West Georgia W 73-69 63%    
  Thu, Feb 5 154 Lipscomb W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Feb 7 246 North Alabama W 72-67 69%    
  Wed, Feb 11 233 @Queens L 76-77 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 268 Bellarmine W 76-70 72%    
  Thu, Feb 19 347 @North Florida W 83-76 73%    
  Sat, Feb 21 317 @Jacksonville W 70-66 63%    
  Wed, Feb 25 281 Central Arkansas W 74-67 74%    
  Sat, Feb 28 268 @Bellarmine W 73-72 51%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.3 5.7 6.0 3.3 1.2 0.2 20.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 4.9 6.7 4.1 1.0 0.1 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.8 6.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.8 6.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 5.1 2.4 0.2 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.1 0.2 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.8 0.4 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.9 6.4 9.3 12.2 14.7 14.9 13.1 10.1 6.9 3.4 1.2 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 97.2% 3.3    3.0 0.3 0.0
15-3 85.8% 6.0    4.4 1.5 0.1
14-4 56.1% 5.7    2.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 24.7% 3.3    0.9 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.5% 20.5 12.5 5.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 41.8% 41.8% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.2% 45.8% 45.8% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7
16-2 3.4% 35.7% 35.7% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 2.2
15-3 6.9% 33.4% 33.4% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.0 4.6
14-4 10.1% 27.0% 27.0% 14.6 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.1 7.4
13-5 13.1% 20.6% 20.6% 14.8 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.3 10.4
12-6 14.9% 17.2% 17.2% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.7 12.4
11-7 14.7% 12.0% 12.0% 15.4 0.1 0.9 0.8 12.9
10-8 12.2% 8.7% 8.7% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 11.2
9-9 9.3% 6.4% 6.4% 15.8 0.1 0.5 8.7
8-10 6.4% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.2
7-11 3.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 3.8
6-12 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.2 6.8 3.6 84.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.0 21.4 53.6 25.0