Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.4 148
Expected Predictive Rating +3.1 116
Pace 71.0 113
Improvement +2.9 77

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 172 C- C+ C+ C C
Defense C 147 D+ B+ B- B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 129 D+ 54% 279 -0.6 204
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 133 C 39% 150 +0.2 164
Three Pointers 39% 222 C- 33% 220 -1.5 238
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 184 C- -1.9 245
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 234
Second Chance D+ 27.9% 254 B+ 1.17 35 C+ 0.33 139
Turnovers C+ 16.5% 159
Freethrows C 0.30 198 C+ 74% 135 C 0.22 170
Total Offense C -0.3 172

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 44% 257 D 13.8% 321
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 109 B- 4.0% 104
Three Pointers A- 95% 5 F+ 1.8% 343
Total C+ 57% 147 D 7.1% 322

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 124 D 62% 297 +3.0 280
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 187 C 39% 211 +0.0 188
Three Pointers 39% 240 C- 35% 233 -0.3 160
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 212 D+ +2.4 273
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 264
Second Chance C- 31.1% 213 A+ 0.76 4 B+ 0.24 24
Turnovers B- 18.5% 85
Freethrows C+ 0.29 153 B+ 68% 25 B- 0.20 101
Total Defense C +0.8 147

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 173 C- 9.2% 243
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 222 D- 1.8% 336
Three Pointers C 84% 5 D+ 0.4% 343
Total C 55% 168 D+ 4.2% 292

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 128 17.0 137
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 97 0.20 267
Improvement +6.5 #2 -3.6 #327

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35% 36% 30%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 91% 94% 79%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round35% 36% 30%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: North Florida (Away) - 82.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 6
Quad 419 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 347 @Air Force W 74 - 54 84% +10  95% 1 - 0 B +10 D -6 C D F A+ +15 C+ B A+
 Tue, Nov 11 105 @Wyoming L 65 - 79 25% -5  2% 1 - 1 D+ -7 F -14 F C F A +9 C+ A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 300 @UNC Greensboro W 69 - 63 70% +3  74% 2 - 1 C +1 F -15 F C- D- A+ +16 C+ A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 72 @Mississippi L 65 - 72 16% -7  0% 2 - 2 C+ +4 D+ -3 F+ B- C A- +7 A+ F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 78 @Tulsa L 75 - 84 17% +2  60% 2 - 3 C +2 C+ +3 B C B C- -2 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 321 Northern Illinois W 77 - 59 89% +7  79% 3 - 3 B- +5 B- +4 A B B- B- +2 B+ B F
 Wed, Dec 3 143 @Kent St. L 84 - 96 37% -3  11% 3 - 4 D -8 B +6 A F C+ F -14 F C- C-
 Sun, Dec 7 151 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50 - 63 39% -0  42% 3 - 5 D -10 F -22 F D- C A+ +12 B+ D- A+
 Fri, Dec 12 133 East Tennessee St. W 76 - 75 57% +6  98% 4 - 5 C -0 C +0 C+ F B+ C -0 D A B-
 Thu, Jan 1 343 North Florida W 102 - 83 92% +8  86% 5 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +4 C+ +3 F A+ A C- -2 D A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 310 Jacksonville W 71 - 68 87% +2  65% 6 - 5 2 - 0 D -9 F+ -8 F D- A- C -0 F D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 253 @Florida Gulf Coast W 82 - 71 60% +3  67% 7 - 5 3 - 0 B +9 B +5 D A+ B- B +4 D+ B A-
 Sat, Jan 10 325 @Stetson W 81 - 69 78% +7  92% 8 - 5 4 - 0 C+ +4 C +1 F+ B- A+ B +4 C+ D+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 278 Eastern Kentucky W 74 - 72 83% +1  58% 9 - 5 5 - 0 D+ -8 C -0 F+ A C- D- -7 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 192 @Lipscomb L 78 - 82 48% -2  22% 9 - 6 5 - 1 C- -3 C- -1 D C+ D+ C -1 D- A C-
 Thu, Jan 22 253 Florida Gulf Coast W 83 - 62 79% +12  96% 10 - 6 6 - 1 B+ +13 B +6 C- B+ A A- +8 C B A+
 Fri, Jan 23 325 Stetson W 73 - 65 90% +0  34% 11 - 6 7 - 1 D+ -6 D- -7 F A+ D- C+ +1 C- A C-
 Wed, Jan 28 278 @Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 82 66% +10  97% 12 - 6 8 - 1 C+ +4 B- +5 B+ C+ F C- -2 B+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 31 316 @West Georgia W 81 - 78 75% +6  89% 13 - 6 9 - 1 C- -4 D+ -3 F F+ B- C -1 D+ A F
 Wed, Feb 4 192 Lipscomb W 87 - 76 70% +4  60% 14 - 6 10 - 1 B- +6 B +7 A+ F B C- -2 D+ B- C
 Sat, Feb 7 340 North Alabama W 91 - 62 92% +17  90% 15 - 6 11 - 1 B+ +14 A+ +19 A+ A B+ C- -2 D+ A B-
 Wed, Feb 11 205 @Queens W 95 - 87 51% +5  83% 16 - 6 12 - 1 B +8 A- +10 C+ A C C- -2 F A+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 288 Bellarmine W 90 - 70 84% +15  94% 17 - 6 13 - 1 B +10 A+ +17 A- A D+ D+ -4 B- F F
 Thu, Feb 19 343 @North Florida W 89 - 79 82%
 Sat, Feb 21 310 @Jacksonville W 73 - 67 72%
 Wed, Feb 25 184 Central Arkansas W 78 - 73 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 288 @Bellarmine W 81 - 76 67%
Totals 20 - 7 16 - 2 +0 C +0 A C- C C +1 C- C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C C- C- 40% 41% 39% C C- D+ B+ C+ C+ C C+ C C D C C- D+ 41% 20% 39% C- D+ C- A+ B+ B- C+ B+ B-
1.08 54% 39% 33% -2 0 0.98 28% 1.2 .33 16% .30 74% .22 1.08 62% 39% 35% +2 0 1.07 31% 0.8 .24 18% .29 68% .21
Nov
8		 Air Force D B- A+ D C 30% 23% 47% D+ C D+ D- D F A+ F A+ A+ D A+ D C 32% 18% 50% B C+ F A+ B A+ F A+ B
1.03 64% 55% 32% +4 -1 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 24% .53 59% .31 0.75 64% 0% 36% -3 0 0.95 38% 0.5 .18 31% .48 33% .16
Nov
11		 Wyoming F B- F F F 46% 10% 44% B F C- B C F C C+ C+ A A D- F B- 52% 12% 37% D C+ B A+ A+ A- D A- C-
0.85 61% 0% 18% -13 +2 0.80 24% 1.0 .24 21% .40 71% .28 1.03 44% 50% 42% -1 +2 1.04 33% 0.7 .23 21% .38 70% .26
Nov
15		 UNC Greensboro F D- F F F 39% 22% 39% C F D B- C- D- C F D+ A+ C- C A- B- 35% 22% 43% C C+ A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ A- C+
0.95 52% 25% 29% -8 0 0.85 27% 1.2 .32 16% .26 63% .16 0.86 59% 36% 29% -4 0 0.94 14% 0.6 .08 16% .39 63% .25
Nov
18		 Mississippi D+ F D D- F+ 29% 21% 50% C F+ A- D B- C F A+ F A- C A A+ A+ 29% 35% 37% C A+ D- F F B+ F+ B D
0.95 38% 33% 29% -11 -1 0.79 38% 0.9 .36 18% .12 86% .11 1.06 64% 29% 22% -8 -3 0.82 35% 1.3 .45 16% .37 71% .26
Nov
21		 Tulsa C+ F+ A- A+ B- 49% 17% 34% B B C- C+ C B C D C- C- F+ B F F 35% 6% 59% C F B+ A+ A+ C+ B+ F C
1.10 50% 44% 44% +2 +1 1.09 25% 1.1 .28 13% .27 69% .19 1.23 67% 33% 43% +11 +2 1.27 27% 0.8 .20 16% .28 94% .26
Nov
25		 Northern Illinois B- A+ D A A 36% 14% 50% C- A C+ B+ B B- A- F C B- F C A+ B 38% 21% 40% B+ B+ B- B+ B F B- A+ A+
1.19 75% 33% 41% +11 +1 1.25 33% 1.2 .41 15% .40 59% .24 0.91 75% 36% 10% -9 0 0.85 29% 0.7 .20 17% .32 41% .13
Dec
3		 Kent St. B D B- A+ A 41% 9% 50% B+ A C F F C+ F+ D F F F D+ F F 40% 10% 50% D- F A+ F C- C- F B- F
1.14 52% 40% 46% +7 +2 1.20 30% 0.5 .16 15% .26 69% .18 1.31 68% 40% 54% +19 +1 1.44 23% 1.7 .38 18% .53 72% .38
Dec
7		 UT Rio Grande Valley F F F F F 58% 14% 28% A+ F F B- D- C C F D+ A+ B- F A B 28% 26% 47% A B+ F+ D+ D- A+ C F+ C-
0.72 41% 14% 14% -21 +2 0.64 21% 0.9 .19 17% .33 63% .21 0.91 54% 50% 27% -3 -1 0.94 34% 1.1 .38 29% .22 82% .18
Dec
12		 East Tennessee St. C D+ A+ B- C+ 39% 12% 49% C+ C+ C+ F F B+ C- A+ B C D- D C D 41% 16% 43% C- D C A+ A B- A D+ A-
1.09 55% 50% 36% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 16% .29 88% .25 1.07 65% 44% 33% +4 +1 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 17% .24 79% .19
Jan
1		 North Florida C+ D A+ F F 39% 18% 44% C- F B- A+ A+ A B A A- C- B- C F D 37% 10% 53% D+ D B+ A+ A+ C+ F D+ F
1.31 54% 55% 26% -4 0 0.95 40% 1.6 .65 8% .32 78% .25 1.07 53% 40% 41% +4 +1 1.12 20% 0.6 .11 19% .43 81% .35
Jan
3		 Jacksonville F+ C- F F F 44% 20% 35% C F F+ D+ D- A- C- A B- C F+ B F F 38% 20% 42% C- F C- D+ D+ A+ F A+ C-
1.03 58% 18% 26% -8 0 0.87 23% 0.9 .20 12% .36 77% .28 0.99 65% 33% 42% +7 0 1.16 29% 1.1 .32 25% .38 55% .21
Jan
8		 Florida Gulf Coast B F F B+ D 35% 10% 54% B- D C A+ A+ B- A- D+ B B C F B- D 24% 31% 45% B+ D+ B- B+ B A- D A C-
1.19 47% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.7 .53 14% .42 72% .31 1.03 58% 60% 32% +5 -2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 22% .31 65% .20
Jan
10		 Stetson C F+ A F F+ 40% 31% 29% D- F+ F A+ B- A+ A+ F A B D B A- B- 30% 17% 54% C- C+ F+ B D+ B- A B+ A
1.15 52% 50% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 1.9 .42 7% .49 56% .28 0.98 63% 33% 28% -5 0 0.93 32% 0.9 .29 20% .20 64% .12
Jan
15		 Eastern Kentucky C D D- C- F 46% 17% 38% B F+ A- B+ A C- C- B C D- F F F F 26% 28% 47% B- F D+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A
1.18 55% 38% 33% -2 +1 1.00 42% 1.1 .47 16% .32 76% .25 1.15 91% 58% 50% +25 -2 1.49 35% 0.5 .17 27% .20 56% .11
Jan
17		 Lipscomb C- F B C+ D+ 33% 33% 34% D- D D A+ C+ D+ D+ B C- C D F B+ D 62% 7% 31% F D- C- A+ A C- C F F+
1.04 47% 42% 35% -2 -2 0.95 26% 1.3 .34 19% .26 75% .20 1.10 65% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 26% 0.5 .13 16% .24 100% .24
Jan
22		 Florida Gulf Coast B D A+ C C 28% 24% 48% F+ C- B- A B+ A F C- F A- C- C+ C C+ 37% 27% 37% C- C F A+ B A+ A A+ A+
1.24 53% 54% 35% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.3 .42 12% .25 73% .19 0.92 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 40% 0.6 .26 27% .18 44% .08
Jan
23		 Stetson D- B C F F+ 33% 31% 37% F F C+ A+ A+ D- C+ B- B- C+ F+ C+ B+ C- 32% 23% 45% C+ C- C A+ A C- F+ C- F+
1.09 69% 40% 22% -2 -2 0.94 34% 1.7 .57 18% .29 75% .22 0.97 67% 36% 29% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 18% .36 70% .25
Jan
28		 Eastern Kentucky B- B C- A+ A- 37% 29% 34% D B+ F A+ C+ F A+ A+ A+ C- D- A+ B+ B+ 25% 31% 44% B+ B+ F A+ A- F F F F
1.22 67% 42% 50% +12 -1 1.24 23% 1.6 .36 23% .67 92% .61 1.11 64% 24% 29% -6 -2 0.85 43% 0.6 .27 12% .42 89% .37
Jan
31		 West Georgia D+ D A+ F F 44% 11% 44% C+ F F D F+ B- A+ A+ A+ C C- B C- D+ 43% 31% 26% D- D+ A+ A- A F F B- F
1.08 55% 60% 20% -8 +2 0.89 22% 0.9 .19 13% .63 83% .53 1.04 56% 33% 33% -3 -1 0.95 21% 0.9 .18 11% .37 68% .25
Feb
4		 Lipscomb B A+ D+ A+ A+ 36% 36% 27% F+ A+ F C F B D D- D C- F A+ A D+ 51% 9% 40% D- D+ B- C+ B- C A- F B
1.21 85% 35% 60% +19 -2 1.36 8% 1.0 .08 15% .25 67% .16 1.06 71% 20% 27% +1 +2 1.09 22% 1.0 .22 17% .17 90% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 North Alabama A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 54% 6% 40% A A+ D A+ A B+ F F F C- B- F A+ C- 59% 18% 24% D- D+ F A+ A B- A+ F A
1.47 63% 100% 55% +19 +3 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 11% .16 67% .11 1.00 50% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.96 45% 0.5 .21 19% .18 78% .14
Feb
11		 Queens A- A- A+ F B- 52% 25% 23% C- C+ C A+ A C A+ A A+ C- D F F F 47% 16% 37% D+ F A A+ A+ D F A+ F
1.29 68% 50% 27% +6 0 1.15 33% 1.5 .50 15% .51 81% .41 1.18 67% 50% 42% +10 +1 1.25 22% 0.4 .08 14% .53 62% .33
Feb
14		 Bellarmine A+ C A A+ B+ 50% 9% 41% A A- B+ A- A D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A A+ F B+ 55% 8% 37% F B- F F F F A- F B-
1.49 64% 50% 50% +14 +2 1.34 41% 1.3 .55 17% .55 86% .48 1.16 48% 25% 44% -1 +3 1.06 27% 1.4 .37 10% .22 92% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.6 19.5 40.0 29.2 91.3 1st
2nd 0.6 4.3 3.6 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.7 6.9 23.2 40.0 29.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 29.2    29.2
16-2 100.0% 40.0    36.7 3.4
15-3 84.3% 19.5    11.3 8.2
14-4 37.6% 2.6    0.4 1.7 0.5
13-5 1.4% 0.0    0.0
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 91.3% 91.3 77.6 13.3 0.5



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 29.2% 39.8% 39.8% 13.4 0.9 5.9 4.6 0.3 17.6
16-2 40.0% 35.4% 35.4% 14.0 0.1 2.7 8.7 2.7 0.0 25.9
15-3 23.2% 31.1% 31.1% 14.3 0.6 3.8 2.7 0.1 16.0
14-4 6.9% 24.7% 24.7% 14.6 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 5.2
13-5 0.7% 14.3% 14.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 34.8% 34.8% 0.0% 13.9 65.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.6% 100.0% 13.4 7.4 51.0 39.3 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.9%
Lose Out 0.3%