Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -0.4 167
Results Rating +2.3 127
Consistency 0.11 15
Pace 71.1 112
Improvement +0.8 159

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 181 C- C C C+ C+
Defense C 160 D+ B+ C+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 93 D+ 54% 281 +0.3 167
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 147 C- 37% 200 -0.5 203
Three Pointers 38% 234 C- 33% 224 -1.8 243
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 141 D+ -2.2 260
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 234
Second Chance C- 28.4% 237 B 1.14 45 C 0.32 145
Turnovers from Steals C 9.6% 194
Other Turnovers C+ 6.9% 130
Turnovers C 16.5% 157
Freethrows C 0.31 180 C+ 74% 134 C+ 0.23 153
Total Offense C -0.7 181

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 237 D+ 12.6% 281
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 112 C+ 4.2% 124
Three Pointers A 95% 3 F 2.0% 349
Total C+ 58% 132 D 6.9% 314

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 98 D 62% 304 +3.8 309
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 208 C 39% 202 -0.3 166
Three Pointers 39% 252 C 34% 201 -1.0 140
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 235 D+ +2.0 256
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 259
Second Chance C- 31.0% 206 A+ 0.78 4 B+ 0.24 31
Turnovers from Steals B+ 12.2% 27
Other Turnovers D- 5.8% 349
Turnovers C+ 18.0% 104
Freethrows C 0.31 199 B 70% 51 C 0.21 160
Total Defense C +0.3 160

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 141 D+ 8.6% 267
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 200 D- 1.7% 341
Three Pointers B- 81% 89 D 0.2% 319
Total C+ 53% 121 D 4.0% 310

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 126 17.1 143
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 114 0.20 263
Consistency 0.14 291 0.11 116
Improvement +5.1 7 -4.3 349

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 186 167 146
Results Rating Rank 157 134 101
Conference Record 15 - 3 16 - 2 16 - 2
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29% 30% 26%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round29% 30% 26%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Bellarmine (Away) - 66.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 418 - 121 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 350 @Air Force W 74 - 54 83% +10  95% 1 - 0 B +10 D- -7 C- D F A+ +16 C+ B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 100 @Wyoming L 65 - 79 21% -5  2% 1 - 1 D+ -6 F -13 F C- F+ A- +8 C+ A A
 Sat, Nov 15 302 @UNC Greensboro W 69 - 63 69% +3  74% 2 - 1 C +1 F -16 F C- D- A+ +16 B- A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 79 @Mississippi L 65 - 72 16% -7  0% 2 - 2 C+ +3 D+ -4 F+ B- C+ B+ +7 A+ F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 65 @Tulsa L 75 - 84 13% +2  60% 2 - 3 C+ +3 B- +4 B C- B+ C -1 F+ A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 320 Northern Illinois W 77 - 59 88% +7  79% 3 - 3 C+ +5 B- +4 A B B- B- +2 B+ B F
 Wed, Dec 3 152 @Kent St. L 84 - 96 35% -3  11% 3 - 4 D -9 B- +5 A F C+ F -13 F C- C-
 Sun, Dec 7 142 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50 - 63 33% -0  42% 3 - 5 D -9 F -23 F D- C- A+ +13 A- F+ A+
 Fri, Dec 12 136 East Tennessee St. W 76 - 75 54% +6  98% 4 - 5 C -1 C +0 C+ F B+ C -1 D+ A C+
 Thu, Jan 1 338 North Florida W 102 - 83 91% +8  86% 5 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +4 B- +4 F+ A+ A C- -2 D A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 307 Jacksonville W 71 - 68 85% +2  65% 6 - 5 2 - 0 D -9 F+ -8 F D- B+ C -0 F D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 251 @Florida Gulf Coast W 82 - 71 56% +3  67% 7 - 5 3 - 0 B +9 B +6 D+ A+ B- B- +3 D+ B+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 326 @Stetson W 81 - 69 75% +7  92% 8 - 5 4 - 0 C+ +4 C +1 F+ C+ A+ B +4 B- D+ C+
 Thu, Jan 15 286 Eastern Kentucky W 74 - 72 82% +1  58% 9 - 5 5 - 0 D -8 C- -1 F+ A C- D- -7 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 199 @Lipscomb L 78 - 82 45% -2  22% 9 - 6 5 - 1 C- -3 C- -1 D B- D+ C- -2 D- A C-
 Thu, Jan 22 251 Florida Gulf Coast W 83 - 62 76% +12  96% 10 - 6 6 - 1 B+ +13 B +6 C B+ A A- +8 C B A+
 Fri, Jan 23 326 Stetson W 73 - 65 89% +0  34% 11 - 6 7 - 1 D+ -6 D- -7 F A+ D- C+ +2 C A C-
 Wed, Jan 28 286 @Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 82 64% +10  97% 12 - 6 8 - 1 C+ +4 B- +4 B B- F C -1 B+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 31 312 @West Georgia W 81 - 78 71% +6  89% 13 - 6 9 - 1 C- -3 D+ -3 F F+ B- C -1 D+ A F
 Wed, Feb 4 199 Lipscomb W 87 - 76 68% +4  60% 14 - 6 10 - 1 B- +6 B +7 A+ F B C- -2 D+ C+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 341 North Alabama W 91 - 62 91% +17  90% 15 - 6 11 - 1 B+ +14 A+ +20 A+ A B+ C- -2 D+ A B-
 Wed, Feb 11 203 @Queens W 95 - 87 46% +5  83% 16 - 6 12 - 1 B +9 A- +10 C+ A C C- -2 F A+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 292 Bellarmine W 90 - 70 83% +15  94% 17 - 6 13 - 1 B +9 A+ +16 A- A C- D+ -4 B F F
 Thu, Feb 19 338 @North Florida W 77 - 76 79% -5  7% 18 - 6 14 - 1 D+ -8 F -15 F D+ D- A- +7 A B- C+
 Sat, Feb 21 307 @Jacksonville W 65 - 61 69% +3  67% 19 - 6 15 - 1 C -2 C- -2 F B- A+ C+ +1 C+ B- F
 Wed, Feb 25 177 Central Arkansas L 88 - 93 64% +5  84% 19 - 7 15 - 2 D -9 A +13 A+ C D- F -22 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 28 292 @Bellarmine W 81 - 77 66%
Totals 20 - 7 16 - 2 +0 C -1 F+ D+ C+ C +0 C- C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C- C- D+ 42% 40% 38% C+ C- C- B C C C C+ C+ C D C C D+ 42% 20% 39% C- D+ C- A+ B+ C+ C B C
1.08 54% 37% 33% -2 0 0.98 28% 1.1 .32 16% .31 74% .23 1.08 62% 39% 34% +2 0 1.07 31% 0.8 .24 18% .31 70% .21
Nov
8		 Air Force D- B- A+ D C 30% 23% 47% D+ C- C- F+ D F A+ F A+ A+ D- A+ D C 32% 18% 50% B+ C+ F A+ B+ A+ F A+ B
1.03 64% 55% 32% +4 -1 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 24% .53 59% .31 0.75 64% 0% 36% -3 0 0.95 38% 0.5 .18 31% .48 33% .16
Nov
11		 Wyoming F B- F F F 46% 10% 44% B F D+ C+ C- F+ C+ C+ C+ A- A D- F B- 52% 12% 37% D C+ B A+ A A D- A- C-
0.85 61% 0% 18% -13 +2 0.80 24% 1.0 .24 21% .40 71% .28 1.03 44% 50% 42% -1 +2 1.04 33% 0.7 .23 21% .38 70% .26
Nov
15		 UNC Greensboro F D- F F F 39% 22% 39% C F D+ B- C- D- C F D+ A+ C- C A- B- 35% 22% 43% C- B- A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ A- C
0.95 52% 25% 29% -8 0 0.85 27% 1.2 .32 16% .26 63% .16 0.86 59% 36% 29% -4 0 0.94 14% 0.6 .08 16% .39 63% .25
Nov
18		 Mississippi D+ F D F+ F 29% 21% 50% C+ F+ A D- B- C+ F A+ F B+ C A A+ A+ 29% 35% 37% C A+ D- F F B+ F+ B D
0.95 38% 33% 29% -11 -1 0.79 38% 0.9 .36 18% .12 86% .11 1.06 64% 29% 22% -8 -3 0.82 35% 1.3 .45 16% .37 71% .26
Nov
21		 Tulsa B- D- A- A+ B- 49% 17% 34% B B C- C C- B+ C D C C D- B F F 35% 6% 59% C F+ B+ A+ A+ B- B+ F C
1.10 50% 44% 44% +2 +1 1.09 25% 1.1 .28 13% .27 69% .19 1.23 67% 33% 43% +11 +2 1.27 27% 0.8 .20 16% .28 94% .26
Nov
25		 Northern Illinois B- A+ D A A 36% 14% 50% C- A C+ B+ B B- A- F C B- F C A+ B+ 38% 21% 40% B+ B+ C+ A- B F C+ A+ A+
1.19 75% 33% 41% +11 +1 1.25 33% 1.2 .41 15% .40 59% .24 0.91 75% 36% 10% -9 0 0.85 29% 0.7 .20 17% .32 41% .13
Dec
3		 Kent St. B- D B- A+ A- 41% 9% 50% B+ A C- F F C+ F D F F F D+ F F 40% 10% 50% D- F A+ F C- C- F B- F
1.14 52% 40% 46% +7 +2 1.20 30% 0.5 .16 15% .26 69% .18 1.31 68% 40% 54% +19 +1 1.44 23% 1.7 .38 18% .53 72% .38
Dec
7		 UT Rio Grande Valley F F F F F 58% 14% 28% A F F C+ D- C- C- F D A+ B F A B+ 28% 26% 47% A A- F D+ F+ A+ C F+ C-
0.72 41% 14% 14% -21 +2 0.64 21% 0.9 .19 17% .33 63% .21 0.91 54% 50% 27% -3 -1 0.94 34% 1.1 .38 29% .22 82% .18
Dec
12		 East Tennessee St. C D+ A+ B- C+ 39% 12% 49% B- C+ C+ F F B+ C A+ B C D D C D 41% 16% 43% C- D+ C A+ A C+ A D+ A-
1.09 55% 50% 36% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 16% .29 88% .25 1.07 65% 44% 33% +4 +1 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 17% .24 79% .19
Jan
1		 North Florida B- D A+ F F 39% 18% 44% C- F+ B- A+ A+ A B A A- C- B- C F D 37% 10% 53% D D A- A+ A+ C+ F D F
1.31 54% 55% 26% -4 0 0.95 40% 1.6 .65 8% .32 78% .25 1.07 53% 40% 41% +4 +1 1.12 20% 0.6 .11 19% .43 81% .35
Jan
3		 Jacksonville F+ C- F F F 44% 20% 35% C F F+ D+ D- B+ C A B- C F+ B F F 38% 20% 42% C F C- D+ D+ A+ F A+ C-
1.03 58% 18% 26% -8 0 0.87 23% 0.9 .20 12% .36 77% .28 0.99 65% 33% 42% +7 0 1.16 29% 1.1 .32 25% .38 55% .21
Jan
8		 Florida Gulf Coast B F F B+ D 35% 10% 54% B- D+ C A+ A+ B- A- D+ B+ B- C F B- D- 24% 31% 45% B+ D+ B- A- B+ A D- A C-
1.19 47% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.7 .53 14% .42 72% .31 1.03 58% 60% 32% +5 -2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 22% .31 65% .20
Jan
10		 Stetson C F+ A F F+ 40% 31% 29% D- F+ F A+ C+ A+ A+ F A B D B- A B 30% 17% 54% D+ B- F+ B- D+ C+ A A- A
1.15 52% 50% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 1.9 .42 7% .49 56% .28 0.98 63% 33% 28% -5 0 0.93 32% 0.9 .29 20% .20 64% .12
Jan
15		 Eastern Kentucky C- D- D- D+ F 46% 17% 38% B F+ A B+ A C- C- B- C D- F F F F 26% 28% 47% B- F D A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A
1.18 55% 38% 33% -2 +1 1.00 42% 1.1 .47 16% .32 76% .25 1.15 91% 58% 50% +25 -2 1.49 35% 0.5 .17 27% .20 56% .11
Jan
17		 Lipscomb C- F B C+ D+ 33% 33% 34% D- D D A+ B- D+ C- B+ C C- D F B+ D+ 62% 7% 31% F D- C- A+ A C- C- F F
1.04 47% 42% 35% -2 -2 0.95 26% 1.3 .34 19% .26 75% .20 1.10 65% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 26% 0.5 .13 16% .24 100% .24
Jan
22		 Florida Gulf Coast B D A+ C C+ 28% 24% 48% F+ C B- A- B+ A F C- F A- C- C+ C C 37% 27% 37% C- C F A+ B A+ A A+ A+
1.24 53% 54% 35% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.3 .42 12% .25 73% .19 0.92 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 40% 0.6 .26 27% .18 44% .08
Jan
23		 Stetson D- B C F F+ 33% 31% 37% F F C+ A+ A+ D- C+ B- B- C+ F+ C A- C 32% 23% 45% C+ C C A+ A C- F C F+
1.09 69% 40% 22% -2 -2 0.94 34% 1.7 .57 18% .29 75% .22 0.97 67% 36% 29% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 18% .36 70% .25
Jan
28		 Eastern Kentucky B- B C- A+ B+ 37% 29% 34% D B F A+ B- F A+ A+ A+ C D- A+ B+ B+ 25% 31% 44% B B+ F A+ A- F F F F
1.22 67% 42% 50% +12 -1 1.24 23% 1.6 .36 23% .67 92% .61 1.11 64% 24% 29% -6 -2 0.85 43% 0.6 .27 12% .42 89% .37
Jan
31		 West Georgia D+ D A+ F F 44% 11% 44% C+ F F D F+ B- A+ A+ A+ C C- B C- C- 43% 31% 26% D- D+ A A A F F C+ F
1.08 55% 60% 20% -8 +2 0.89 22% 0.9 .19 13% .63 83% .53 1.04 56% 33% 33% -3 -1 0.95 21% 0.9 .18 11% .37 68% .25
Feb
4		 Lipscomb B A+ D+ A+ A+ 36% 36% 27% F+ A+ F C F B D+ D D C- F A+ A C- 51% 9% 40% D- D+ B- C C+ C A- F B-
1.21 85% 35% 60% +19 -2 1.36 8% 1.0 .08 15% .25 67% .16 1.06 71% 20% 27% +1 +2 1.09 22% 1.0 .22 17% .17 90% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 North Alabama A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 54% 6% 40% A A+ D+ A+ A B+ F F F C- B- F A D+ 59% 18% 24% F+ D+ F A+ A B- A+ F A
1.47 63% 100% 55% +19 +3 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 11% .16 67% .11 1.00 50% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.96 45% 0.5 .21 19% .18 78% .14
Feb
11		 Queens A- A- A F C+ 52% 25% 23% C C+ C A+ A C A+ A A+ C- D F F F 47% 16% 37% D F A A+ A+ D F A+ F
1.29 68% 50% 27% +6 0 1.15 33% 1.5 .50 15% .51 81% .41 1.18 67% 50% 42% +10 +1 1.25 22% 0.4 .08 14% .53 62% .33
Feb
14		 Bellarmine A+ C A A+ B 50% 9% 41% A A- B A- A C- A+ A+ A+ D+ A A+ F B+ 55% 8% 37% F+ B F+ F F F A- F B
1.49 64% 50% 50% +14 +2 1.34 41% 1.3 .55 17% .55 86% .48 1.16 48% 25% 44% -1 +3 1.06 27% 1.4 .37 10% .22 92% .20
Feb
19		 North Florida F F F F F 63% 11% 27% A F D- B D+ D- A+ B- A+ A- D- D A+ A 41% 18% 41% C+ A C- A+ B- C+ F C F
0.99 49% 33% 20% -12 +3 0.84 30% 1.3 .40 15% .44 72% .32 0.97 65% 44% 15% -8 0 0.88 27% 0.9 .24 19% .51 78% .40
Feb
21		 Jacksonville C- B- F F F 57% 14% 30% A- F B- C+ B- A+ B F C- C+ D+ A+ A+ B+ 60% 12% 29% F C+ F A+ B- F F D F
1.08 64% 0% 23% -7 +2 0.93 34% 1.0 .34 7% .41 61% .25 1.01 60% 20% 17% -8 +3 0.90 35% 0.8 .26 13% .44 74% .32
Feb
25		 Central Arkansas A B- F A+ A+ 50% 2% 48% A+ A+ A- F C D- A+ A+ A+ F F F F F 41% 4% 55% F F A F F D- D F F
1.30 64% 0% 57% +18 +3 1.45 36% 0.9 .32 22% .40 86% .34 1.37 71% 50% 43% +13 +2 1.33 20% 2.0 .40 13% .31 83% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 33.9 66.1 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 33.9 66.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 66.1    66.1
15-3 100.0% 33.9    11.6 22.3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 77.7 22.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 66.1% 30.3% 30.3% 13.9 0.1 5.1 11.8 3.0 0.0 46.0
15-3 33.9% 25.7% 25.7% 14.4 0.0 0.5 4.5 3.6 0.2 25.2
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.8% 28.8% 0.0% 14.0 71.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 20.0% 100.0% 13.9 0.7 25.6 58.8 14.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 13.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 20.3%
Lose Out 7.5%