Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#195
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#172
Pace69.6#185
Improvement-2.0#304

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#277
First Shot-3.9#293
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#187
Layup/Dunks+0.5#163
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#163
Freethrows-2.7#324
Improvement-0.1#184

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#119
First Shot-1.9#234
After Offensive Rebounds+3.6#6
Layups/Dunks-3.3#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#91
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#263
Freethrows+2.3#48
Improvement-1.8#312
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.1% 15.6% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 78.9% 81.5% 56.5%
.500 or above in Conference 86.3% 88.4% 67.9%
Conference Champion 19.4% 20.9% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 2.6%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 1.6%
First Round14.6% 15.1% 9.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 89.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 414 - 417 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 322 @Air Force W 74-54 67%     1 - 0 +13.2 -1.6 +14.4
  Tue, Nov 11 103 @Wyoming L 65-79 17%     1 - 1 -6.3 -10.1 +5.1
  Sat, Nov 15 294 @UNC Greensboro W 69-63 57%     2 - 1 +1.9 -9.6 +11.3
  Tue, Nov 18 63 @Mississippi L 65-72 10%     2 - 2 +4.5 +0.2 +4.1
  Fri, Nov 21 92 @Tulsa L 75-84 15%     2 - 3 +0.1 +5.7 -5.8
  Tue, Nov 25 328 Northern Illinois W 77-59 84%     3 - 3 +5.1 +3.2 +3.4
  Wed, Dec 3 124 @Kent St. L 84-96 23%     3 - 4 -6.6 +8.8 -14.9
  Sun, Dec 7 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50-63 37%     3 - 5 -12.0 -20.5 +8.4
  Fri, Dec 12 141 East Tennessee St. W 76-75 48%     4 - 5 -0.7 +1.1 -1.8
  Thu, Jan 1 350 North Florida W 85-72 90%    
  Sat, Jan 3 317 Jacksonville W 73-63 82%    
  Thu, Jan 8 186 @Florida Gulf Coast L 72-75 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 349 @Stetson W 74-67 74%    
  Thu, Jan 15 259 Eastern Kentucky W 75-69 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 144 @Lipscomb L 70-76 27%    
  Thu, Jan 22 186 Florida Gulf Coast W 75-72 59%    
  Sat, Jan 24 349 Stetson W 77-64 88%    
  Wed, Jan 28 259 @Eastern Kentucky W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 316 @West Georgia W 73-69 63%    
  Thu, Feb 5 144 Lipscomb L 72-73 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 244 North Alabama W 72-66 69%    
  Wed, Feb 11 211 @Queens L 76-78 43%    
  Sat, Feb 14 267 Bellarmine W 76-69 72%    
  Thu, Feb 19 350 @North Florida W 82-75 75%    
  Sat, Feb 21 317 @Jacksonville W 70-66 64%    
  Wed, Feb 25 282 Central Arkansas W 74-67 74%    
  Sat, Feb 28 267 @Bellarmine W 73-72 52%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.3 5.7 3.3 1.2 0.2 19.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.4 6.9 4.5 1.2 0.1 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.5 6.7 3.3 0.6 0.0 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.9 5.9 2.7 0.3 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.3 2.3 0.3 10.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.0 2.3 0.2 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.8 0.3 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 3.8 6.5 9.6 12.5 13.8 14.7 13.6 10.4 6.9 3.4 1.2 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 96.8% 3.3    2.9 0.3 0.0
15-3 81.8% 5.7    4.0 1.6 0.1
14-4 51.4% 5.3    2.5 2.2 0.6 0.0
13-5 22.1% 3.0    0.8 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.4% 19.4 11.8 5.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 44.1% 44.1% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.2% 43.0% 43.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-2 3.4% 36.2% 36.2% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.2
15-3 6.9% 29.9% 29.9% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.0 4.9
14-4 10.4% 25.9% 25.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.1 7.7
13-5 13.6% 19.9% 19.9% 14.8 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.4 10.9
12-6 14.7% 14.8% 14.8% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.6 12.5
11-7 13.8% 11.0% 11.0% 15.4 0.1 0.8 0.7 12.3
10-8 12.5% 9.0% 9.0% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 11.4
9-9 9.6% 6.0% 6.0% 15.9 0.1 0.5 9.1
8-10 6.5% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 6.2
7-11 3.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 3.8
6-12 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
5-13 0.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.9 6.4 3.3 84.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.2 11.5 57.7 30.8