Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -1.3 181
Results Rating +0.7 147
Consistency 0.11 14
Pace 71.9 89
Improvement -0.9 218

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 196 D+ C+ C C+ C+
Defense C 180 D+ B+ C+ C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 75 D+ 55% 265 +1.0 142
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 153 C- 36% 250 -1.0 237
Three Pointers 38% 234 D+ 32% 257 -2.3 259
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 118 D+ -2.7 275
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.98 248
Second Chance C- 28.3% 238 B+ 1.16 32 C+ 0.33 140
Opponents' Steals C 9.7% 203
Other Turnovers C+ 6.8% 129
Turnovers C 16.5% 164
Freethrows C 0.31 160 C+ 73% 158 C+ 0.23 148
Total Offense C- -1.2 196

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 47% 211 C- 12.1% 249
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 117 C 4.9% 183
Three Pointers A- 94% 6 F+ 1.8% 346
Total C+ 58% 135 D 6.8% 309


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 78 D+ 62% 291 +4.2 317
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 231 C- 39% 225 -0.5 150
Three Pointers 38% 259 C- 35% 235 -0.7 149
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 265 D+ +2.4 280
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 282
Second Chance C 30.7% 201 A+ 0.80 4 B+ 0.25 34
Turnovers from Steals B 11.7% 43
Other Turnovers D- 5.7% 350
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 134
Freethrows C 0.30 182 B 70% 46 C+ 0.21 153
Total Defense C -0.1 180

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 126 D+ 8.2% 289
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 252 D- 1.8% 334
Three Pointers C+ 81% 104 D 0.2% 330
Total C+ 53% 134 D 3.9% 312

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 116 17.1 135
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 125 0.20 277
Consistency 0.13 252 0.12 116
Improvement +3.7 34 -4.6 345

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 184 181 178
Results Rating Rank 150 146 143
Conference Record 15 - 3 15 - 3 15 - 3
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 32 - 7
Quad 418 - 220 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 344 @Air Force W 74 - 54 79% +10  95% 1 - 0 B +10 D -6 C D F A+ +15 C+ B A+
 Tue, Nov 11 101 @Wyoming L 65 - 79 19% -5  2% 1 - 1 D+ -6 F -14 F C- F A +9 C+ A+ A
 Sat, Nov 15 297 @UNC Greensboro W 69 - 63 64% +3  74% 2 - 1 C +1 F -15 F C- D- A+ +16 B- A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 76 @Mississippi L 65 - 72 13% -7  0% 2 - 2 C+ +4 D+ -3 F+ B- C+ B+ +6 A+ F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 65 @Tulsa L 75 - 84 11% +2  60% 2 - 3 C+ +3 B- +4 B C- B+ C -1 F A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 343 Northern Illinois W 77 - 59 90% +7  79% 3 - 3 C+ +2 C+ +3 A- B C+ C+ +1 B B- F
 Wed, Dec 3 160 @Kent St. L 84 - 96 33% -3  11% 3 - 4 D -9 B- +5 A- F B- F -13 F C- C-
 Sun, Dec 7 138 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50 - 63 30% -0  42% 3 - 5 D -9 F -23 F D- C- A+ +13 B+ F+ A+
 Fri, Dec 12 143 East Tennessee St. W 76 - 75 54% +6  98% 4 - 5 C -1 C- -1 C+ F B+ C -1 D A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 1 341 North Florida W 102 - 83 90% +8  86% 5 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +4 B- +4 F+ A+ A C- -3 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 296 Jacksonville W 71 - 68 82% +2  65% 6 - 5 2 - 0 D+ -8 F+ -8 F D- B+ C+ +1 F C- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 252 @Florida Gulf Coast W 82 - 71 53% +3  67% 7 - 5 3 - 0 B +9 B +7 D+ A+ B- C+ +2 D B A
 Sat, Jan 10 310 @Stetson W 81 - 69 68% +7  92% 8 - 5 4 - 0 B- +6 C +1 F+ B- A+ B+ +5 B C- B-
 Thu, Jan 15 298 Eastern Kentucky W 74 - 72 82% +1  58% 9 - 5 5 - 0 D -9 C- -2 F+ A C- D- -7 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 215 @Lipscomb L 78 - 82 45% -2  22% 9 - 6 5 - 1 C- -4 C- -2 D- B- D+ C- -2 D- A C-
 Thu, Jan 22 252 Florida Gulf Coast W 83 - 62 74% +12  96% 10 - 6 6 - 1 B+ +13 B +7 C B+ A B+ +6 C- B A+
 Fri, Jan 23 310 Stetson W 73 - 65 84% +0  34% 11 - 6 7 - 1 C- -4 D- -7 F A+ D- B- +3 C+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 298 @Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 82 64% +10  97% 12 - 6 8 - 1 C+ +3 C+ +3 B C+ F C -1 A- B+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 301 @West Georgia W 81 - 78 66% +6  89% 13 - 6 9 - 1 C- -3 C- -1 F F+ C+ C -1 D+ A F
 Wed, Feb 4 215 Lipscomb W 87 - 76 68% +4  60% 14 - 6 10 - 1 C+ +5 B +7 A+ F B C- -2 D+ C+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 342 North Alabama W 91 - 62 90% +17  90% 15 - 6 11 - 1 B+ +13 A+ +20 A+ A A- C- -3 D+ A C+
 Wed, Feb 11 191 @Queens W 95 - 87 40% +5  83% 16 - 6 12 - 1 B +9 A- +11 B- A C C- -2 F A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 14 283 Bellarmine W 90 - 70 80% +15  94% 17 - 6 13 - 1 B +10 A+ +16 A- A D+ C- -3 B F F
 Thu, Feb 19 341 @North Florida W 77 - 76 78% -5  7% 18 - 6 14 - 1 D -8 F -15 F D+ D- B+ +7 A- B- C+
 Sat, Feb 21 296 @Jacksonville W 65 - 61 63% +3  67% 19 - 6 15 - 1 C -1 C- -2 F B A+ B- +2 C+ B- F+
 Wed, Feb 25 168 Central Arkansas L 88 - 93 58% +5  84% 19 - 7 15 - 2 D -8 A +13 A+ C D- F -22 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 28 283 @Bellarmine L 97 - 111 61% -4  6% 19 - 8 15 - 3 F -18 D+ -4 F B+ C+ F -12 F F D
 Fri, Mar 6 310 Stetson W 69 - 60 77% -1  47% 20 - 8 C -0 D -5 D- D+ D- B+ +6 D+ A D
 Sat, Mar 7 191 Queens L 83 - 90 52% -3  5% 20 - 9 D -9 C- -1 D+ B+ B- D- -7 F A F
Totals 20 - 9 15 - 3 -1 C- -1 B D+ C+ C +0 D+ C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ C- D+ D+ 42% 40% 38% C+ D+ C- B+ C+ C C C+ C+ C D+ C- C- D+ 43% 19% 38% D+ D+ C A+ B+ C+ C B C+
1.07 55% 36% 32% -3 0 0.98 28% 1.2 .33 16% .31 73% .23 1.09 62% 39% 35% +2 +1 1.08 31% 0.8 .25 17% .30 70% .22
Nov
8		 Air Force D B- A+ D C 30% 23% 47% D+ C C- F+ D F A+ F A+ A+ D A+ D C+ 32% 18% 50% B+ C+ F A+ B A+ F A+ B-
1.03 64% 55% 32% +4 -1 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 24% .53 59% .31 0.75 64% 0% 36% -3 0 0.95 38% 0.5 .18 31% .48 33% .16
Nov
11		 Wyoming F B- F F F 46% 10% 44% B F D+ C+ C- F C+ B- B- A A F+ F B- 52% 12% 37% D C+ B A+ A+ A D- A- D+
0.85 61% 0% 18% -13 +2 0.80 24% 1.0 .24 21% .40 71% .28 1.03 44% 50% 42% -1 +2 1.04 33% 0.7 .23 21% .38 70% .26
Nov
15		 UNC Greensboro F D- F F F 39% 22% 39% C F D+ B- C- D- C F D+ A+ C- C+ A- B- 35% 22% 43% C- B- A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ A C+
0.95 52% 25% 29% -8 0 0.85 27% 1.2 .32 16% .26 63% .16 0.86 59% 36% 29% -4 0 0.94 14% 0.6 .08 16% .39 63% .25
Nov
18		 Mississippi D+ F D F+ F 29% 21% 50% C+ F+ A- D- B- C+ F A+ F B+ C A A+ A+ 29% 35% 37% C A+ D- F+ F B+ D- B+ D
0.95 38% 33% 29% -11 -1 0.79 38% 0.9 .36 18% .12 86% .11 1.06 64% 29% 22% -8 -3 0.82 35% 1.3 .45 16% .37 71% .26
Nov
21		 Tulsa B- F+ A A+ B 49% 17% 34% B+ B C- D+ C- B+ C D C- C D- B F F 35% 6% 59% C F B+ A+ A+ B- B+ F C
1.10 50% 44% 44% +2 +1 1.09 25% 1.1 .28 13% .27 69% .19 1.23 67% 33% 43% +11 +2 1.27 27% 0.8 .20 16% .28 94% .26
Nov
25		 Northern Illinois C+ A+ D A A 36% 14% 50% C A- C+ B+ B C+ A F C C+ F C A+ B 38% 21% 40% B+ B C B+ B- F C+ A+ A+
1.19 75% 33% 41% +11 +1 1.25 33% 1.2 .41 15% .40 59% .24 0.91 75% 36% 10% -9 0 0.85 29% 0.7 .20 17% .32 41% .13
Dec
3		 Kent St. B- D B- A+ A- 41% 9% 50% B+ A- C- F F B- F D F F F C- F F 40% 10% 50% D- F A+ F C- C- F B- F
1.14 52% 40% 46% +7 +2 1.20 30% 0.5 .16 15% .26 69% .18 1.31 68% 40% 54% +19 +1 1.44 23% 1.7 .38 18% .53 72% .38
Dec
7		 UT Rio Grande Valley F F F F F 58% 14% 28% A F F B- D- C- C- F D A+ B F A B+ 28% 26% 47% A B+ F D+ F+ A+ C F+ C-
0.72 41% 14% 14% -21 +2 0.64 21% 0.9 .19 17% .33 63% .21 0.91 54% 50% 27% -3 -1 0.94 34% 1.1 .38 29% .22 82% .18
Dec
12		 East Tennessee St. C- D A+ B- C 39% 12% 49% B- C+ C+ F F B+ C- A+ B C D D C D 41% 16% 43% C- D C A+ A+ C+ A D B+
1.09 55% 50% 36% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 16% .29 88% .25 1.07 65% 44% 33% +4 +1 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 17% .24 79% .19
Jan
1		 North Florida B- D A+ F F 39% 18% 44% C- F+ B- A+ A+ A B A B+ C- B- C F D- 37% 10% 53% D D- B+ A+ A+ C+ F D F
1.31 54% 55% 26% -4 0 0.95 40% 1.6 .65 8% .32 78% .25 1.07 53% 40% 41% +3 +1 1.12 20% 0.6 .11 19% .43 81% .35
Jan
3		 Jacksonville F+ C- F F F 44% 20% 35% C F F+ C- D- B+ C- A B- C+ F+ B F F 38% 20% 42% C F C D C- A+ F A+ C-
1.03 58% 18% 26% -8 0 0.87 23% 0.9 .20 12% .36 77% .28 0.99 65% 33% 42% +7 0 1.16 29% 1.1 .32 25% .38 55% .21
Jan
8		 Florida Gulf Coast B F F B+ D 35% 10% 54% B- D+ C+ A+ A+ B- A C- B+ C+ C F C+ F+ 24% 31% 45% A- D C+ A- B A D- A D+
1.19 47% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.7 .53 14% .42 72% .31 1.03 58% 60% 32% +5 -2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 22% .31 65% .20
Jan
10		 Stetson C F+ A F F+ 40% 31% 29% F+ F+ F A+ B- A+ A+ F A B+ D B A B 30% 17% 54% C- B F+ B+ C- B- A A- A
1.15 52% 50% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 1.9 .42 7% .49 56% .28 0.98 63% 33% 28% -5 0 0.93 32% 0.9 .29 20% .20 64% .12
Jan
15		 Eastern Kentucky C- D D- D+ F 46% 17% 38% B+ F+ A- B A C- C- B- C D- F F F F 26% 28% 47% B- F D A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+
1.18 55% 38% 33% -2 +1 1.00 42% 1.1 .47 16% .32 76% .25 1.15 91% 58% 50% +25 -2 1.49 35% 0.5 .17 27% .20 56% .11
Jan
17		 Lipscomb C- F B C+ D 33% 33% 34% F+ D- D A+ B- D+ C- B C C- D F B+ D 62% 7% 31% F D- C- A+ A C- C- F F
1.04 47% 42% 35% -2 -2 0.95 26% 1.3 .34 19% .26 75% .20 1.10 65% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 26% 0.5 .13 16% .24 100% .24
Jan
22		 Florida Gulf Coast B D A+ C C+ 28% 24% 48% F+ C B- A- B+ A F C F B+ C- C+ C C- 37% 27% 37% C- C- F A+ B A+ A- A+ A+
1.24 53% 54% 35% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.3 .42 12% .25 73% .19 0.92 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 40% 0.6 .26 27% .18 44% .08
Jan
23		 Stetson D- B+ C F F+ 33% 31% 37% F F C+ A+ A+ D- C+ C+ C+ B- F+ C+ A- C+ 32% 23% 45% B- C+ C A+ A+ C- F C F
1.09 69% 40% 22% -2 -2 0.94 34% 1.7 .57 18% .29 75% .22 0.97 67% 36% 29% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 18% .36 70% .25
Jan
28		 Eastern Kentucky C+ B C- A+ B+ 37% 29% 34% D B F A+ C+ F A+ A+ A+ C D- A+ A- A- 25% 31% 44% B+ A- F A+ B+ F F F F
1.22 67% 42% 50% +12 -1 1.24 23% 1.6 .36 23% .67 92% .61 1.11 64% 24% 29% -6 -2 0.85 43% 0.6 .27 12% .42 89% .37
Jan
31		 West Georgia C- D+ A+ F F 44% 11% 44% C+ F F+ D F+ C+ A+ A+ A+ C C B C- C- 43% 31% 26% D- D+ A A- A F F B- F
1.08 55% 60% 20% -8 +2 0.89 22% 0.9 .19 13% .63 83% .53 1.04 56% 33% 33% -3 -1 0.95 21% 0.9 .18 11% .37 68% .25
Feb
4		 Lipscomb B A+ D+ A+ A+ 36% 36% 27% F+ A+ F C+ F B D+ D D C- F A+ A C- 51% 9% 40% D- D+ B- C C+ C B+ F C+
1.21 85% 35% 60% +19 -2 1.36 8% 1.0 .08 15% .25 67% .16 1.06 71% 20% 27% +1 +2 1.09 22% 1.0 .22 17% .17 90% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 North Alabama A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 54% 6% 40% A- A+ D+ A+ A A- F F F C- B- F A D+ 59% 18% 24% F+ D+ F A+ A C+ A+ F A
1.47 63% 100% 55% +19 +3 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 11% .16 67% .11 1.00 50% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.96 45% 0.5 .21 19% .18 78% .14
Feb
11		 Queens A- A- A+ F B- 52% 25% 23% C- B- C A+ A C A+ A A+ C- D- F F F 47% 16% 37% D+ F A- A+ A+ D+ F A+ F
1.29 68% 50% 27% +6 0 1.15 33% 1.5 .50 15% .51 81% .41 1.18 67% 50% 42% +10 +1 1.25 22% 0.4 .08 14% .53 62% .33
Feb
14		 Bellarmine A+ C+ A A+ B 50% 9% 41% A A- B+ A A D+ A+ A+ A+ C- A A+ F A- 55% 8% 37% F+ B F+ F F F A F B
1.49 64% 50% 50% +14 +2 1.34 41% 1.3 .55 17% .55 86% .48 1.16 48% 25% 44% -1 +3 1.06 27% 1.4 .37 10% .22 92% .20
Feb
19		 North Florida F F F F F 63% 11% 27% A F D- B+ D+ D- A+ C+ A+ B+ D- D A+ A 41% 18% 41% C A- D+ A+ B- C+ F C F
0.99 49% 33% 20% -12 +3 0.84 30% 1.3 .40 15% .44 72% .32 0.97 65% 44% 15% -8 0 0.88 27% 0.9 .24 19% .51 78% .40
Feb
21		 Jacksonville C- B- F F F 57% 14% 30% A- F B B- B A+ B F C- B- D+ A+ A+ B+ 60% 12% 29% F C+ F+ A+ B- F+ F D+ F
1.08 64% 0% 23% -7 +2 0.93 34% 1.0 .34 7% .41 61% .25 1.01 60% 20% 17% -8 +3 0.90 35% 0.8 .26 13% .44 74% .32
Feb
25		 Central Arkansas A B- F A+ A+ 50% 2% 48% A+ A+ B+ F C D- A+ A+ A+ F F F F F 41% 4% 55% F F A F F D- D F F
1.30 64% 0% 57% +18 +3 1.45 36% 0.9 .32 22% .40 86% .34 1.37 71% 50% 43% +13 +2 1.33 20% 2.0 .40 13% .31 83% .26
Feb
28		 Bellarmine D+ A- F D F 36% 22% 41% C- F D- A+ B+ C+ A+ C A F D F F F 57% 9% 34% F+ F D- F F D F D+ F
1.17 71% 23% 33% +1 0 1.03 29% 1.7 .50 15% .42 73% .31 1.34 67% 60% 45% +12 +3 1.33 26% 1.6 .41 13% .47 82% .39
Mar
6		 Stetson D C+ F F F 53% 9% 38% A D- C F+ D+ D- A+ A- A+ B+ C+ F B- C- 41% 14% 45% F+ D+ A+ B- A D A+ F A
1.10 64% 0% 28% -4 +3 1.00 32% 1.0 .32 17% .39 80% .31 0.95 55% 57% 32% 0 +1 1.04 17% 1.0 .17 16% .13 86% .11
Mar
7		 Queens C- C F F F+ 57% 2% 41% A+ D+ C A+ B+ B- A+ F B- D- B A+ F D- 61% 2% 38% F F B- A+ A F A A+ A+
1.14 59% 0% 29% -4 +4 1.02 33% 1.3 .44 14% .45 61% .27 1.24 54% 0% 52% +7 +4 1.25 26% 0.7 .19 7% .22 40% .09



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%