Austin Peay
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#257
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#170
Pace66.6#247
Improvement+1.2#94

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#237
First Shot-2.7#252
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#143
Layup/Dunks-9.8#358
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#52
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#26
Freethrows-2.2#290
Improvement-0.1#194

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#273
First Shot+4.1#57
After Offensive Rebounds-7.0#358
Layups/Dunks-6.5#341
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#30
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.9#6
Freethrows-0.2#194
Improvement+1.3#72
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.4% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 41.7% 54.5% 27.9%
.500 or above in Conference 62.1% 68.2% 55.3%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.6% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.4% 3.2%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round1.8% 2.2% 1.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Away) - 52.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 32 - 43 - 9
Quad 411 - 613 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 146   @ Southern Illinois L 55-73 19%     0 - 1 -13.5 -8.0 -7.7
  Nov 16, 2021 271   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 60-65 42%     0 - 2 -7.9 -13.4 +5.2
  Nov 20, 2021 98   @ Dayton W 87-81 11%     1 - 2 +14.2 +14.2 -0.3
  Nov 26, 2021 274   @ Howard W 69-67 43%     2 - 2 -1.1 -10.4 +9.2
  Nov 29, 2021 91   @ TCU L 51-68 10%     2 - 3 -8.3 -9.2 -1.6
  Dec 11, 2021 308   @ North Florida W 71-70 52%    
  Dec 14, 2021 247   @ South Florida L 58-62 37%    
  Dec 18, 2021 86   @ Vanderbilt L 62-76 10%    
  Dec 22, 2021 130   Western Kentucky L 69-73 34%    
  Dec 30, 2021 343   Tennessee Martin W 76-65 85%    
  Jan 01, 2022 304   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 06, 2022 324   SIU Edwardsville W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 08, 2022 143   Morehead St. L 65-69 37%    
  Jan 13, 2022 57   @ Belmont L 66-82 7%    
  Jan 15, 2022 350   Eastern Illinois W 73-61 87%    
  Jan 20, 2022 343   @ Tennessee Martin W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 22, 2022 327   @ Tennessee St. W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 27, 2022 57   Belmont L 69-79 19%    
  Jan 29, 2022 280   @ Tennessee Tech L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 03, 2022 94   Murray St. L 64-72 25%    
  Feb 05, 2022 143   @ Morehead St. L 62-72 20%    
  Feb 10, 2022 304   Southeast Missouri St. W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 12, 2022 327   Tennessee St. W 75-67 76%    
  Feb 17, 2022 94   @ Murray St. L 61-75 12%    
  Feb 19, 2022 280   Tennessee Tech W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 24, 2022 324   @ SIU Edwardsville W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 26, 2022 350   @ Eastern Illinois W 70-64 71%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.1 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 3.2 4.9 3.6 1.0 0.1 13.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 5.4 9.4 8.4 4.1 0.8 0.0 29.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 6.3 7.2 4.0 0.9 0.1 20.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 5.1 4.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 13.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.5 3.0 0.7 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.3 7.0 10.1 13.2 14.7 14.7 12.6 9.6 5.9 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 79.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 41.7% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1
14-4 8.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 26.3% 26.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 20.7% 20.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.3% 12.5% 12.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
14-4 2.9% 10.5% 10.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.6
13-5 5.9% 7.2% 7.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.5
12-6 9.6% 3.9% 3.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.2
11-7 12.6% 2.2% 2.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 12.4
10-8 14.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 14.5
9-9 14.7% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 14.6
8-10 13.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.2
7-11 10.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.1
6-12 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.0
5-13 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.3
4-14 2.1% 2.1
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 98.0 0.0%