Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.0 157
Results Rating +3.6 108
Pace 71.3 106
Improvement +1.3 136

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 205 D+ C+ C+ C C+
Defense C+ 136 C- B+ B- C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 103 D+ 54% 284 -0.1 181
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 136 C- 37% 205 -0.3 192
Three Pointers 38% 236 D+ 32% 266 -2.4 262
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 164 D+ -2.9 288
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 265
Second Chance C- 28.0% 248 B+ 1.16 39 C+ 0.33 146
Turnovers C+ 16.3% 149
Freethrows C 0.30 193 C+ 73% 154 C 0.22 167
Total Offense C- -1.3 205

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 44% 256 D 13.2% 308
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 106 C+ 4.4% 133
Three Pointers A- 95% 8 F 2.0% 351
Total C 57% 153 D 7.1% 323

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 101 D 62% 300 +3.7 303
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 195 C 38% 196 -0.2 177
Three Pointers 38% 257 C 34% 167 -1.5 118
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 226 C- +1.6 245
1st FG Attempt C- 1.06 242
Second Chance C- 31.4% 221 A+ 0.76 3 B+ 0.24 27
Turnovers B- 18.1% 101
Freethrows C 0.31 197 B+ 69% 31 C+ 0.21 151
Total Defense C+ +1.3 136

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 151 D+ 8.7% 261
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 211 D- 1.7% 338
Three Pointers C 84% 168 D 0.3% 312
Total C+ 54% 140 D 4.1% 304

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 127 17.0 137
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 109 0.19 259
Improvement +3.9 #22 -2.7 #311

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 184 160 139
Results Rating Rank 141 118 87
Conference Record 15 - 3 16 - 2 17 - 1
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32% 33% 28%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round32% 33% 28%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 66.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 419 - 122 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 351 @Air Force W 74 - 54 84% +10  95% 1 - 0 B +9 D -6 C- D F A+ +15 C+ B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 100 @Wyoming L 65 - 79 22% -5  2% 1 - 1 D+ -6 F -13 F C F A +9 C+ A A
 Sat, Nov 15 301 @UNC Greensboro W 69 - 63 69% +3  74% 2 - 1 C +1 F -15 F C- D- A+ +16 B- A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 72 @Mississippi L 65 - 72 16% -7  0% 2 - 2 C+ +4 D+ -3 F+ B- C+ B+ +7 A+ F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 76 @Tulsa L 75 - 84 16% +2  60% 2 - 3 C +2 C+ +3 B C B C- -2 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 323 Northern Illinois W 77 - 59 89% +7  79% 3 - 3 C+ +5 B- +4 A B B- B- +2 B+ B F
 Wed, Dec 3 144 @Kent St. L 84 - 96 35% -3  11% 3 - 4 D -8 B +6 A F C+ F -14 F C- C-
 Sun, Dec 7 145 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50 - 63 35% -0  42% 3 - 5 D -9 F -23 F D- C- A+ +14 B+ F+ A+
 Fri, Dec 12 131 East Tennessee St. W 76 - 75 54% +6  98% 4 - 5 C -0 C +0 C+ F A- C -0 D A C+
 Thu, Jan 1 340 North Florida W 102 - 83 91% +8  86% 5 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +4 B- +4 F A+ A C- -2 D A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 306 Jacksonville W 71 - 68 86% +2  65% 6 - 5 2 - 0 D -9 F+ -8 F D- B+ C -0 F D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 251 @Florida Gulf Coast W 82 - 71 57% +3  67% 7 - 5 3 - 0 B +9 B +6 D+ A+ B- B- +3 D+ B+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 326 @Stetson W 81 - 69 77% +7  92% 8 - 5 4 - 0 C+ +4 C +0 F+ C+ A+ B +4 B- D+ C+
 Thu, Jan 15 279 Eastern Kentucky W 74 - 72 82% +1  58% 9 - 5 5 - 0 D+ -8 C- -1 F+ A C D- -6 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 188 @Lipscomb L 78 - 82 45% -2  22% 9 - 6 5 - 1 C- -3 C- -1 D C+ D+ C -1 D- A C-
 Thu, Jan 22 251 Florida Gulf Coast W 83 - 62 77% +12  96% 10 - 6 6 - 1 B+ +13 B +6 C B+ A A- +8 C B A+
 Fri, Jan 23 326 Stetson W 73 - 65 89% +0  34% 11 - 6 7 - 1 D+ -6 D- -7 F A+ D- C+ +2 C A C-
 Wed, Jan 28 279 @Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 82 64% +10  97% 12 - 6 8 - 1 C+ +4 B- +5 B C+ F C -1 B+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 31 317 @West Georgia W 81 - 78 73% +6  89% 13 - 6 9 - 1 C- -4 D+ -3 F F+ B- C -1 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 188 Lipscomb W 87 - 76 67% +4  60% 14 - 6 10 - 1 B- +6 B+ +8 A+ F B C- -2 D+ B- C
 Sat, Feb 7 342 North Alabama W 91 - 62 92% +17  90% 15 - 6 11 - 1 B+ +14 A+ +20 A+ A B+ C- -2 D+ A B-
 Wed, Feb 11 212 @Queens W 95 - 87 49% +5  83% 16 - 6 12 - 1 B +8 A- +10 C+ A C C- -2 F A+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 285 Bellarmine W 90 - 70 84% +15  94% 17 - 6 13 - 1 B +10 A+ +16 A- A D+ D+ -3 B F F
 Thu, Feb 19 340 @North Florida W 77 - 76 80% -5  7% 18 - 6 14 - 1 D+ -8 F -15 F D+ D- A- +7 A B- C+
 Sat, Feb 21 306 @Jacksonville W 65 - 61 70% +3  67% 19 - 6 15 - 1 C -2 C- -2 F B- A+ C+ +1 C+ B- F+
 Wed, Feb 25 183 Central Arkansas W 77 - 73 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 285 @Bellarmine W 80 - 76 66%
Totals 20 - 7 16 - 2 +0 C- -1 F D+ C+ C+ +1 D+ C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ C- D+ D+ 41% 41% 38% C+ D+ C- B+ C+ C+ C C+ C C+ D C C C- 42% 20% 38% C- C- C- A+ B+ B- C B+ C+
1.07 54% 37% 32% -3 0 0.97 28% 1.2 .33 16% .30 73% .22 1.07 62% 38% 34% +2 0 1.06 31% 0.8 .24 18% .31 69% .21
Nov
8		 Air Force D B- A+ D C 30% 23% 47% D+ C- C- F+ D F A+ F A+ A+ D- A+ D C 32% 18% 50% B C+ F A+ B+ A+ F A+ B-
1.03 64% 55% 32% +4 -1 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 24% .53 59% .31 0.75 64% 0% 36% -3 0 0.95 38% 0.5 .18 31% .48 33% .16
Nov
11		 Wyoming F B- F F F 46% 10% 44% B F C- B- C F C+ C+ C+ A A D- F B- 52% 12% 37% D C+ B A+ A A D- A- C-
0.85 61% 0% 18% -13 +2 0.80 24% 1.0 .24 21% .40 71% .28 1.03 44% 50% 42% -1 +2 1.04 33% 0.7 .23 21% .38 70% .26
Nov
15		 UNC Greensboro F D- F F F 39% 22% 39% C F D B- C- D- C F D+ A+ C- C A- B- 35% 22% 43% C- B- A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ A- C+
0.95 52% 25% 29% -8 0 0.85 27% 1.2 .32 16% .26 63% .16 0.86 59% 36% 29% -4 0 0.94 14% 0.6 .08 16% .39 63% .25
Nov
18		 Mississippi D+ F D F+ F 29% 21% 50% C F+ A D- B- C+ F A+ F B+ C A A+ A+ 29% 35% 37% C A+ D- F F B+ F+ B D
0.95 38% 33% 29% -11 -1 0.79 38% 0.9 .36 18% .12 86% .11 1.06 64% 29% 22% -8 -3 0.82 35% 1.3 .45 16% .37 71% .26
Nov
21		 Tulsa C+ F+ A- A+ B- 49% 17% 34% B B C- C C B C D C- C- F+ B F F 35% 6% 59% C F B+ A+ A+ C+ B+ F C
1.10 50% 44% 44% +2 +1 1.09 25% 1.1 .28 13% .27 69% .19 1.23 67% 33% 43% +11 +2 1.27 27% 0.8 .20 16% .28 94% .26
Nov
25		 Northern Illinois B- A+ D A A 36% 14% 50% C- A C+ B+ B B- A- F C B- F C A+ B+ 38% 21% 40% B+ B+ C+ B+ B F C+ A+ A+
1.19 75% 33% 41% +11 +1 1.25 33% 1.2 .41 15% .40 59% .24 0.91 75% 36% 10% -9 0 0.85 29% 0.7 .20 17% .32 41% .13
Dec
3		 Kent St. B D B- A+ A 41% 9% 50% B+ A C- F F C+ F+ D F+ F F D+ F F 40% 10% 50% D- F A+ F C- C- F B- F
1.14 52% 40% 46% +7 +2 1.20 30% 0.5 .16 15% .26 69% .18 1.31 68% 40% 54% +19 +1 1.44 23% 1.7 .38 18% .53 72% .38
Dec
7		 UT Rio Grande Valley F F F F F 58% 14% 28% A F F B- D- C- C- F D A+ B- F A B+ 28% 26% 47% A B+ F+ D+ F+ A+ C D- C-
0.72 41% 14% 14% -21 +2 0.64 21% 0.9 .19 17% .33 63% .21 0.91 54% 50% 27% -3 -1 0.94 34% 1.1 .38 29% .22 82% .18
Dec
12		 East Tennessee St. C D+ A+ B- C+ 39% 12% 49% B- C+ C+ F F A- C- A+ B C D D C D 41% 16% 43% C- D C A+ A C+ A C- A-
1.09 55% 50% 36% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 16% .29 88% .25 1.07 65% 44% 33% +4 +1 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 17% .24 79% .19
Jan
1		 North Florida B- D A+ F F 39% 18% 44% C- F B- A+ A+ A B A A- C- B- C F D 37% 10% 53% D D A- A+ A+ C+ F D F
1.31 54% 55% 26% -4 0 0.95 40% 1.6 .65 8% .32 78% .25 1.07 53% 40% 41% +4 +1 1.12 20% 0.6 .11 19% .43 81% .35
Jan
3		 Jacksonville F+ C- F F F 44% 20% 35% C F F+ D+ D- B+ C- A B- C F+ B F F 38% 20% 42% C F C- D+ D+ A+ F A+ C-
1.03 58% 18% 26% -8 0 0.87 23% 0.9 .20 12% .36 77% .28 0.99 65% 33% 42% +7 0 1.16 29% 1.1 .32 25% .38 55% .21
Jan
8		 Florida Gulf Coast B F F B+ D 35% 10% 54% B- D+ C A+ A+ B- A- D+ B B- C F B- D- 24% 31% 45% B+ D+ B- A- B+ A D- A C-
1.19 47% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.7 .53 14% .42 72% .31 1.03 58% 60% 32% +5 -2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 22% .31 65% .20
Jan
10		 Stetson C F+ A F F+ 40% 31% 29% D- F+ F A+ C+ A+ A+ F A B D B- A B 30% 17% 54% D+ B- F+ B- D+ C+ A A- A
1.15 52% 50% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 1.9 .42 7% .49 56% .28 0.98 63% 33% 28% -5 0 0.93 32% 0.9 .29 20% .20 64% .12
Jan
15		 Eastern Kentucky C- D- D- C- F 46% 17% 38% B F+ A- B A C C- B- C D- F F F F 26% 28% 47% B- F D+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A
1.18 55% 38% 33% -2 +1 1.00 42% 1.1 .47 16% .32 76% .25 1.15 91% 58% 50% +25 -2 1.49 35% 0.5 .17 27% .20 56% .11
Jan
17		 Lipscomb C- F B C+ D+ 33% 33% 34% D- D D A+ C+ D+ C- B C C D F B+ D+ 62% 7% 31% F D- C- A+ A C- C F F+
1.04 47% 42% 35% -2 -2 0.95 26% 1.3 .34 19% .26 75% .20 1.10 65% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 26% 0.5 .13 16% .24 100% .24
Jan
22		 Florida Gulf Coast B D A+ C C+ 28% 24% 48% F+ C B- A- B+ A F C- F A- C- C+ C C 37% 27% 37% C- C F A+ B A+ A A+ A+
1.24 53% 54% 35% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.3 .42 12% .25 73% .19 0.92 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 40% 0.6 .26 27% .18 44% .08
Jan
23		 Stetson D- B C F F+ 33% 31% 37% F F C+ A+ A+ D- C+ B- B- C+ F+ C A- C 32% 23% 45% C+ C C A+ A C- F C F+
1.09 69% 40% 22% -2 -2 0.94 34% 1.7 .57 18% .29 75% .22 0.97 67% 36% 29% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 18% .36 70% .25
Jan
28		 Eastern Kentucky B- B C- A+ A- 37% 29% 34% D- B F A+ C+ F A+ A+ A+ C D- A+ B+ B+ 25% 31% 44% B+ B+ F A+ A- F F F F
1.22 67% 42% 50% +12 -1 1.24 23% 1.6 .36 23% .67 92% .61 1.11 64% 24% 29% -6 -2 0.85 43% 0.6 .27 12% .42 89% .37
Jan
31		 West Georgia D+ D A+ F F 44% 11% 44% C+ F F+ D- F+ B- A+ A+ A+ C C- B C- D+ 43% 31% 26% F+ D+ A+ A A+ F F B- F
1.08 55% 60% 20% -8 +2 0.89 22% 0.9 .19 13% .63 83% .53 1.04 56% 33% 33% -3 -1 0.95 21% 0.9 .18 11% .37 68% .25
Feb
4		 Lipscomb B+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 36% 36% 27% F+ A+ F C F B D+ D D C- F A+ A C- 51% 9% 40% D- D+ B- C+ B- C A- F B-
1.21 85% 35% 60% +19 -2 1.36 8% 1.0 .08 15% .25 67% .16 1.06 71% 20% 27% +1 +2 1.09 22% 1.0 .22 17% .17 90% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 North Alabama A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 54% 6% 40% A A+ D+ A+ A B+ F F F C- B- F A D+ 59% 18% 24% F+ D+ F A+ A B- A+ F A
1.47 63% 100% 55% +19 +3 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 11% .16 67% .11 1.00 50% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.96 45% 0.5 .21 19% .18 78% .14
Feb
11		 Queens A- A- A F C+ 52% 25% 23% C- C+ C A+ A C A+ A A+ C- D F F F 47% 16% 37% D+ F A A+ A+ D F A+ F
1.29 68% 50% 27% +6 0 1.15 33% 1.5 .50 15% .51 81% .41 1.18 67% 50% 42% +10 +1 1.25 22% 0.4 .08 14% .53 62% .33
Feb
14		 Bellarmine A+ C A A+ B 50% 9% 41% A A- B+ A- A D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A A+ F A- 55% 8% 37% F B F F F F A- F B-
1.49 64% 50% 50% +14 +2 1.34 41% 1.3 .55 17% .55 86% .48 1.16 48% 25% 44% -1 +3 1.06 27% 1.4 .37 10% .22 92% .20
Feb
19		 North Florida F F F F F 63% 11% 27% A F D- B D+ D- A+ B- A+ A- D- D A+ A 41% 18% 41% C+ A C- A+ B- C+ F C F
0.99 49% 33% 20% -12 +3 0.84 30% 1.3 .40 15% .44 72% .32 0.97 65% 44% 15% -8 0 0.88 27% 0.9 .24 19% .51 78% .40
Feb
21		 Jacksonville C- B- F F F 57% 14% 30% A- F B- C+ B- A+ B F C- C+ D+ A+ A+ B+ 60% 12% 29% F C+ F A+ B- F+ F D F
1.08 64% 0% 23% -7 +2 0.93 34% 1.0 .34 7% .41 61% .25 1.01 60% 20% 17% -8 +3 0.90 35% 0.8 .26 13% .44 74% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 12.1 43.8 44.2 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 12.1 43.8 44.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 44.2    44.2
16-2 100.0% 43.8    43.8
15-3 100.0% 12.1    3.8 8.3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 91.7 8.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 44.2% 34.4% 34.4% 13.6 0.6 6.3 7.6 0.7 29.0
16-2 43.8% 30.2% 30.2% 14.1 0.0 2.0 7.9 3.2 0.0 30.6
15-3 12.1% 25.8% 25.8% 14.3 0.3 1.6 1.2 0.0 9.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 31.5% 31.5% 0.0% 13.9 68.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.2% 100.0% 13.6 4.2 41.2 49.9 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 13.5%
Lose Out 2.6%