IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.3	#276
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.5	#249
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.3	#270

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.1	#278

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.7%	7.9%	4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.4	14.8	15.3

.500 or above	33.7%	48.5%	23.7%
.500 or above in Conference	55.3%	65.0%	48.8%
Conference Champion	5.7%	8.2%	4.0%
Last Place in Conference	4.7%	2.6%	6.2%

First Four	1.6%	1.6%	1.6%
First Round	5.5%	7.9%	3.8%
Second Round	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 40.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 9
Quad 4	11 - 8	13 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	280	@ Air Force	L	64-67	40%
Nov 11, 2025	155	@ Wyoming	L	61-70	19%
Nov 15, 2025	225	@ UNC Greensboro	L	62-68	29%
Nov 18, 2025	30	@ Mississippi	L	59-82	2%
Nov 21, 2025	149	@ Tulsa	L	64-74	19%
Nov 25, 2025	316	Northern Illinois	W	74-69	69%
Dec 03, 2025	126	@ Kent St.	L	62-73	15%
Dec 07, 2025	270	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	L	71-74	38%
Dec 12, 2025	152	East Tennessee St.	L	65-69	38%
Dec 21, 2025	301	@ UMKC	L	64-66	45%
Jan 01, 2026	330	North Florida	W	81-74	71%
Jan 03, 2026	253	Jacksonville	W	69-67	56%
Jan 08, 2026	181	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	63-71	25%
Jan 10, 2026	350	@ Stetson	W	72-69	60%
Jan 15, 2026	174	Eastern Kentucky	L	70-72	43%
Jan 17, 2026	188	@ Lipscomb	L	64-71	26%
Jan 22, 2026	181	Florida Gulf Coast	L	66-68	44%
Jan 24, 2026	350	Stetson	W	75-66	77%
Jan 28, 2026	174	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	67-75	25%
Jan 31, 2026	345	@ West Georgia	W	72-69	58%
Feb 05, 2026	188	Lipscomb	L	67-68	45%
Feb 07, 2026	195	North Alabama	L	69-70	46%
Feb 11, 2026	245	@ Queens	L	70-75	34%
Feb 14, 2026	320	Bellarmine	W	74-68	69%
Feb 19, 2026	330	@ North Florida	W	78-77	52%
Feb 21, 2026	253	@ Jacksonville	L	66-70	36%
Feb 25, 2026	358	Central Arkansas	W	74-63	82%
Feb 28, 2026	320	@ Bellarmine	W	71-70	50%
Projected Record						12 - 16	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.2	0.6	1.6	1.7	1.1	0.4	0.1		5.7	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.5	2.7	2.0	0.8	0.2	0.0			7.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	1.9	3.6	2.4	0.6	0.1					8.8	3rd
4th									0.0	0.3	2.4	4.3	2.5	0.4	0.0						9.9	4th
5th								0.0	0.3	2.3	4.8	2.7	0.4	0.0							10.5	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	2.3	5.1	3.2	0.6	0.0								11.6	6th
7th							0.3	2.4	5.3	3.1	0.6	0.0									11.7	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	2.1	4.5	2.9	0.6	0.0										10.3	8th
9th					0.3	1.8	3.9	2.6	0.5	0.0											9.0	9th
10th			0.0	0.4	1.7	3.1	1.8	0.4	0.0												7.4	10th
11th		0.0	0.4	1.3	1.8	1.3	0.3	0.0													5.1	11th
12th	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0														2.6	12th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.3	2.5	4.2	6.4	8.3	10.2	11.3	11.5	11.3	9.7	8.2	6.1	4.2	2.5	1.3	0.4	0.1			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	98.1%	0.4		0.4	0.0
16-2	88.3%	1.1		1.0	0.2	0.0
15-3	67.3%	1.7		1.0	0.6	0.1	0.0
14-4	38.1%	1.6		0.7	0.7	0.2	0.0
13-5	9.7%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.9%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	5.7%	5.7		3.2	1.7	0.6	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		56.6%	56.6%		12.5											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
17-1	0.4%		42.6%	42.6%		13.0												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2
16-2	1.3%		37.7%	37.7%		13.8													0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.8
15-3	2.5%		24.5%	24.5%		14.3													0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	1.9
14-4	4.2%		22.0%	22.0%		15.7													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	3.3
13-5	6.1%		13.9%	13.9%		16.7														0.0	0.1	0.5	0.3	5.2
12-6	8.2%		9.3%	9.3%		18.0														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	7.4
11-7	9.7%		6.5%	6.5%		18.3														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	9.1
10-8	11.3%		4.8%	4.8%		18.1															0.0	0.1	0.5	10.8
9-9	11.5%		2.9%	2.9%		18.1															0.0	0.0	0.3	11.1
8-10	11.3%		1.4%	1.4%		16.6																0.0	0.2	11.2
7-11	10.2%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	10.1
6-12	8.3%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	8.2
5-13	6.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	6.4
4-14	4.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.2
3-15	2.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	2.5
2-16	1.3%																							1.3
1-17	0.4%																							0.4
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		5.7%	5.7%	0.0%	16.4											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.7	2.7	94.3		0.0%