Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.9 #172
Expected Predictive Rating +1.8 #137
Pace 71.2 #114
Improvement +0.6 #155

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #233 D+ C C+ D+ C
Defense #122 C- B+ B B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #164 1.04 #309 -2.0 #256
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #161 0.75 #195 +0.2 #168
Three Pointers 40% #207 0.94 #273 -2.1 #256
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #298 -4.0 #296
Freethrows 0.28 #261 71% #222 0.20 #255
Second Chance 29.0% #224 1.14 #68 0.33 #145
Turnovers 15.7% #130
Total Offense -2.3 #233

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #207 1.25 #291 -1.4 #229
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #160 0.76 #181 -0.2 #201
Three Pointers 41% #191 1.04 #223 -0.5 #197
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #255 -2.1 #254
Freethrows 0.29 #164 67% #18 0.20 #100
Second Chance 30.7% #186 0.76 #3 0.23 #19
Turnovers 19.3% #43
Total Defense +1.5 #122

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #200 -0.2% #149
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.7% #308 4.3% #263
Possession Length 16.9 #128 16.7 #79
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #96 0.20 #264
Improvement +3.0 #43 -2.4 #309

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.9% 27.1% 22.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 58.4% 65.2% 40.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round25.9% 27.1% 22.5%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Georgia (Away) - 73.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 418 - 220 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 347 @Air Force W 74 - 54 78% +10  1 - 0 +11 -2 C+ D F +12 C B A+
 Tue, Nov 11 116 @Wyoming L 65 - 79 25% -5  1 - 1 -8 -11 F C F +5 C+ A+ A
 Sat, Nov 15 305 @UNC Greensboro W 69 - 63 67% +3  2 - 1 +1 -12 F C- F+ +13 C+ A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 18 64 @Mississippi L 65 - 72 12% -7  2 - 2 +5 +0 D- B- C +4 A+ F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 70 @Tulsa L 75 - 84 14% +2  2 - 3 +2 +5 B- C- B+ -4 F+ A+ B
 Tue, Nov 25 310 Northern Illinois W 77 - 59 85% +7  3 - 3 +6 +6 A- C+ B +2 B+ A- F
 Wed, Dec 3 143 @Kent St. L 84 - 96 31% -3  3 - 4 -8 +8 A- F C -15 F C D+
 Sun, Dec 7 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50 - 63 43% -0  3 - 5 -12 -20 F D- C +8 A- F A+
 Fri, Dec 12 130 East Tennessee St. W 76 - 75 51% +6  4 - 5 -0 +3 C D- A -3 D+ A+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 348 North Florida W 102 - 83 90% +8  5 - 5 1 - 0 +4 +6 F A+ A+ -4 C- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 285 Jacksonville W 71 - 68 81% +2  6 - 5 2 - 0 -7 -5 F D A -3 F C- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 232 @Florida Gulf Coast W 82 - 71 51% +3  7 - 5 3 - 0 +10 +7 D A+ B- +3 C- B+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 329 @Stetson W 81 - 69 74% +7  8 - 5 4 - 0 +5 +4 F+ C+ A+ +0 C+ D C+
 Thu, Jan 15 263 Eastern Kentucky W 74 - 72 77% +1  9 - 5 5 - 0 -7 +2 D- A- C- -9 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 169 @Lipscomb L 78 - 82 38% -2  9 - 6 5 - 1 -2 +2 C- C C- -4 D A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 232 Florida Gulf Coast W 83 - 62 73% +12  10 - 6 6 - 1 +14 +8 C- B+ A +7 C+ B+ A+
 Fri, Jan 23 329 Stetson W 73 - 65 88% +0  11 - 6 7 - 1 -5 -4 F A+ D -2 C A C-
 Wed, Jan 28 263 @Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 82 57% +10  12 - 6 8 - 1 +5 +8 B+ C F -3 B A F
 Sat, Jan 31 328 @West Georgia W 78 - 72 73%
 Thu, Feb 5 169 Lipscomb W 76 - 73 60%
 Sat, Feb 7 330 North Alabama W 80 - 67 88%
 Wed, Feb 11 199 @Queens L 79 - 80 45%
 Sat, Feb 14 303 Bellarmine W 82 - 71 84%
 Thu, Feb 19 348 @North Florida W 88 - 80 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 285 @Jacksonville W 70 - 67 62%
 Wed, Feb 25 219 Central Arkansas W 77 - 71 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 303 @Bellarmine W 79 - 74 66%
Totals 18 - 9 14 - 4 -1 -2 D+ C C+ +1 C- B+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.7 12.8 21.9 15.7 5.2 58.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 9.2 10.2 3.5 0.2 24.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.4 5.3 1.0 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.8 0.5 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.9 8.3 17.7 23.9 25.4 15.8 5.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 5.2    5.2
16-2 99.0% 15.7    14.2 1.5
15-3 86.2% 21.9    14.8 6.6 0.6
14-4 53.3% 12.8    4.5 6.1 2.0 0.1
13-5 15.3% 2.7    0.4 1.1 0.9 0.2
12-6 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 58.4% 58.4 39.1 15.3 3.6 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 5.2% 39.9% 39.9% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.1
16-2 15.8% 34.9% 34.9% 13.8 0.1 1.6 3.0 0.9 10.3
15-3 25.4% 29.5% 29.5% 14.3 0.0 0.7 3.9 2.8 0.1 17.9
14-4 23.9% 23.2% 23.2% 14.6 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.0 0.2 18.4
13-5 17.7% 19.8% 19.8% 14.8 0.1 0.8 2.2 0.4 14.2
12-6 8.3% 15.4% 15.4% 15.1 0.1 0.8 0.3 7.0
11-7 2.9% 13.6% 13.6% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.5
10-8 0.7% 10.9% 10.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 14.3 74.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 12.9 0.7 22.5 58.4 18.2 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%