Brown
Ivy League
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#207
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#214
Pace69.7#126
Improvement+1.5#28

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#295
First Shot-2.3#258
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#290
Layup/Dunks-0.3#186
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#226
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#130
Freethrows-2.4#335
Improvement+1.4#20

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#113
First Shot-0.2#180
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#25
Layups/Dunks-3.2#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#150
Freethrows+1.7#62
Improvement+0.1#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 3.8% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 31.3% 45.6% 14.4%
.500 or above in Conference 31.3% 45.6% 14.4%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 0.8% 5.0%
First Four1.6% 1.4% 1.9%
First Round2.7% 3.3% 2.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Away) - 54.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 34 - 54 - 11
Quad 49 - 313 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 146   @ Vermont L 65-80 29%     0 - 1 -11.0 -7.1 -3.5
  Nov 10, 2022 118   Colgate L 68-77 43%     0 - 2 -9.0 -9.2 +0.3
  Nov 13, 2022 333   @ Loyola Maryland L 70-75 71%     0 - 3 -12.5 -11.2 -0.9
  Nov 17, 2022 313   Stony Brook W 64-53 81%     1 - 3 +0.1 -15.8 +15.7
  Nov 23, 2022 177   Umass Lowell L 62-73 55%     1 - 4 -14.0 -12.9 -0.9
  Nov 27, 2022 288   Maine W 70-63 77%     2 - 4 -2.5 -5.1 +2.8
  Nov 29, 2022 329   @ Central Connecticut St. W 59-51 70%     3 - 4 +0.8 -9.2 +11.0
  Dec 02, 2022 195   @ Bryant W 72-60 38%     4 - 4 +13.4 +6.1 +8.8
  Dec 04, 2022 360   @ Hartford W 65-51 87%     5 - 4 -0.2 -10.5 +11.1
  Dec 07, 2022 198   @ Rhode Island W 59-58 38%     6 - 4 +2.3 -6.7 +9.0
  Dec 10, 2022 39   @ Michigan St. L 50-68 8%     6 - 5 -3.8 -8.5 +2.3
  Dec 21, 2022 272   New Hampshire W 67-51 74%     7 - 5 +7.5 -5.9 +14.1
  Dec 29, 2022 50   @ Northwestern L 58-63 10%     7 - 6 +7.6 -4.2 +11.6
  Jan 02, 2023 148   Penn L 68-76 49%     7 - 7 0 - 1 -9.7 -9.4 -0.1
  Jan 06, 2023 157   Harvard L 68-70 OT 52%     7 - 8 0 - 2 -4.3 -7.2 +3.0
  Jan 07, 2023 275   Dartmouth W 77-70 74%     8 - 8 1 - 2 -1.6 +4.6 -6.0
  Jan 14, 2023 115   Princeton W 72-70 42%     9 - 8 2 - 2 +2.2 +1.5 +0.8
  Jan 16, 2023 92   @ Yale L 78-81 18%     9 - 9 2 - 3 +5.1 +5.0 +0.3
  Jan 21, 2023 346   Columbia W 97-85 88%     10 - 9 3 - 3 -2.8 +5.7 -10.1
  Jan 28, 2023 105   @ Cornell L 73-80 21%     10 - 10 3 - 4 -0.3 -5.7 +5.8
  Feb 03, 2023 275   @ Dartmouth W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 04, 2023 157   @ Harvard L 61-66 31%    
  Feb 11, 2023 105   Cornell L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 17, 2023 115   @ Princeton L 65-73 23%    
  Feb 18, 2023 148   @ Penn L 67-73 29%    
  Feb 25, 2023 346   @ Columbia W 72-64 75%    
  Mar 04, 2023 92   Yale L 65-69 35%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 6 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 1.2 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 4.8 0.3 6.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 9.8 2.3 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.7 10.3 8.2 0.1 19.2 5th
6th 0.5 9.6 14.4 0.9 25.4 6th
7th 2.0 11.8 15.0 2.7 0.0 31.6 7th
8th 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
Total 2.4 12.4 25.3 28.6 20.3 8.6 2.1 0.3 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 90.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
9-5 29.9% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 0.3% 7.6% 7.6% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
9-5 2.1% 8.0% 8.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0
8-6 8.6% 5.3% 5.3% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 8.2
7-7 20.3% 4.4% 4.4% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 19.4
6-8 28.6% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0 27.6
5-9 25.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 24.7
4-10 12.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 12.2
3-11 2.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 7.6% 14.1 0.8 5.3 1.5
Lose Out 2.4% 1.4% 16.0 1.4