Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.1#347
Expected Predictive Rating-11.9#321
Pace66.3#255
Improvement+1.3#87

Offense
Total Offense-6.1#328
First Shot-8.8#349
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#45
Layup/Dunks-7.7#351
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#149
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#146
Freethrows-2.4#300
Improvement+0.3#150

Defense
Total Defense-8.0#349
First Shot-7.5#347
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#215
Layups/Dunks-4.2#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#93
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#303
Freethrows-1.2#271
Improvement+1.0#88
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.7% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 2.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 5.7% 10.1% 5.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 48.8% 34.8% 48.9%
First Four0.2% 0.7% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.7% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Providence (Away) - 0.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 47 - 147 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 23   @ Connecticut L 48-99 1%     0 - 1 -34.5 -19.1 -13.4
  Nov 14, 2021 180   @ Brown L 57-75 7%     0 - 2 -15.8 -8.2 -8.6
  Nov 16, 2021 74   North Carolina St. L 65-79 4%     0 - 3 -7.1 -5.6 -1.6
  Nov 17, 2021 225   Umass Lowell L 53-77 14%     0 - 4 -26.6 -17.5 -10.3
  Nov 20, 2021 273   @ Quinnipiac L 65-76 15%     0 - 5 -14.1 -6.3 -8.3
  Nov 23, 2021 353   @ Maine W 64-56 47%     1 - 5 -5.2 -5.5 +1.1
  Nov 28, 2021 235   Fordham L 83-89 2OT 25%     1 - 6 -13.0 -5.0 -6.8
  Dec 01, 2021 346   Holy Cross W 73-67 60%     2 - 6 -10.8 -2.3 -7.9
  Dec 04, 2021 187   @ New Hampshire L 45-67 7%     2 - 7 -19.9 -21.3 -1.6
  Dec 11, 2021 47   @ Providence L 55-82 1%    
  Dec 14, 2021 233   @ Stony Brook L 63-76 11%    
  Dec 18, 2021 254   Hartford L 67-73 28%    
  Dec 23, 2021 102   @ Rutgers L 55-77 2%    
  Dec 29, 2021 258   Bryant L 71-77 29%    
  Dec 31, 2021 337   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 69-73 35%    
  Jan 06, 2022 291   Sacred Heart L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 08, 2022 240   Merrimack L 58-65 26%    
  Jan 15, 2022 268   @ LIU Brooklyn L 68-79 15%    
  Jan 17, 2022 291   @ Sacred Heart L 66-76 19%    
  Jan 21, 2022 231   @ St. Francis (PA) L 66-80 11%    
  Jan 23, 2022 293   @ Mount St. Mary's L 58-68 20%    
  Jan 27, 2022 268   LIU Brooklyn L 71-76 32%    
  Jan 29, 2022 326   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 72-79 27%    
  Feb 03, 2022 120   Wagner L 60-74 10%    
  Feb 05, 2022 326   Fairleigh Dickinson L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 10, 2022 240   @ Merrimack L 55-68 12%    
  Feb 12, 2022 337   St. Francis Brooklyn W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 17, 2022 258   @ Bryant L 68-80 14%    
  Feb 19, 2022 120   @ Wagner L 57-77 4%    
  Feb 24, 2022 231   St. Francis (PA) L 69-77 25%    
  Feb 26, 2022 293   Mount St. Mary's L 61-65 37%    
Projected Record 7 - 24 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.5 0.7 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.8 6.2 1.8 0.2 16.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 5.2 8.9 7.2 2.3 0.2 25.1 9th
10th 1.8 6.2 10.5 10.4 5.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 36.3 10th
Total 1.8 6.3 11.7 15.8 16.7 15.4 12.6 8.5 5.5 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 33.3% 0.0    0.0
14-4 55.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 28.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 12.2% 12.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.3% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.7% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7
10-8 1.5% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.1 1.4
9-9 3.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 3.0
8-10 5.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.5
7-11 8.5% 8.5
6-12 12.6% 12.6
5-13 15.4% 15.4
4-14 16.7% 16.7
3-15 15.8% 15.8
2-16 11.7% 11.7
1-17 6.3% 6.3
0-18 1.8% 1.8
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%