Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.4 292
Expected Predictive Rating -4.6 242
Pace 64.3 299
Improvement -1.6 247

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 230 C D C D+ F
Defense D 321 C- C F+ C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 350 B- 62% 87 -3.8 310
2 Pt. Jumpers 50% 51 C 38% 161 +4.7 18
Three Pointers 38% 252 C+ 35% 137 -1.2 227
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.1 355 C+ +1.8 109
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 186
Second Chance D+ 26.5% 290 D+ 0.97 269 D 0.26 301
Turnovers C 17.0% 186
Freethrows D 0.26 325 B+ 78% 18 D+ 0.20 262
Total Offense C- -2.0 230

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 52% 123 B- 9.4% 92
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 242 B- 3.6% 78
Three Pointers C- 81% 249 F 2.4% 361
Total D+ 52% 265 B- 4.9% 95

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 84 C+ 55% 111 +1.1 216
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 349 C- 40% 256 -2.2 23
Three Pointers 43% 100 D+ 36% 274 +2.7 305
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.1 351 C +0.4 197
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 231
Second Chance C- 31.9% 241 C+ 1.01 146 C 0.32 207
Turnovers F+ 12.7% 356
Freethrows B- 0.27 64 F 80% 365 C+ 0.22 150
Total Defense D -5.5 321

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 164 C 11.6% 142
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 262 B 7.4% 57
Three Pointers D 88% 305 C 1.0% 141
Total D+ 60% 277 C+ 6.4% 116

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 314 17.4 207
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 351 0.15 113
Improvement +1.7 #106 -3.3 #326

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 309 289 260
Conference Record 11 - 5 12 - 4 13 - 3
Conference Finish 3 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20% 21% 18%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four13% 11% 14%
First Round12% 14% 9%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Away) - 62.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 32 - 32 - 4
Quad 415 - 818 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 193 @Quinnipiac L 49 - 71 21% -12  2% 0 - 1 F -21 F -22 F D+ A C+ +1 D+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 135 @Boston College W 60 - 59 13% -4  8% 1 - 1 B- +6 D -6 B F+ D- A+ +11 A A- C
 Sun, Nov 16 182 @Massachusetts L 77 - 84 19% -12  0% 1 - 2 D+ -5 D- -6 D+ D+ C C+ +2 B F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 109 @Rutgers W 67 - 54 10% +5  80% 2 - 2 A +20 C+ +3 C- F A+ A+ +18 A A+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 290 Sacred Heart W 108 - 106 OT 61% +2  66% 3 - 2 D -8 A- +10 B+ A+ C+ F -18 F D F+
 Wed, Dec 3 56 @Seton Hall L 61 - 77 4% -9  2% 3 - 3 C- -3 C+ +3 A+ F C D- -8 F A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 289 @Northeastern L 56 - 73 38% -14  4% 3 - 4 F -21 F -22 F F A C+ +0 C C D
 Sat, Dec 13 359 @Binghamton W 84 - 67 70% +8  87% 4 - 4 C+ +4 B+ +8 A+ D- F D+ -3 D D+ F+
 Thu, Dec 18 266 Fairfield L 70 - 84 55% -14  16% 4 - 5 F -23 D- -7 F B A- F -16 F D+ D+
 Fri, Jan 2 214 @LIU Brooklyn L 78 - 84 24% -1  33% 4 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 A+ +20 A+ C A F -27 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 325 New Haven W 72 - 61 72% +10  99% 5 - 6 1 - 1 C- -3 B+ +8 A C C+ F+ -8 C+ F C
 Thu, Jan 8 345 Stonehill W 76 - 69 78% +6  98% 6 - 6 2 - 1 D -9 C+ +3 B+ A F F -12 F B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 296 @Le Moyne W 69 - 59 40% +6  89% 7 - 6 3 - 1 B- +5 F+ -9 F D D A+ +14 A+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 17 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 90 66% +7  98% 8 - 6 4 - 1 C- -4 A+ +18 A+ F A+ F -21 F+ F F
 Mon, Jan 19 301 @Mercyhurst L 61 - 79 41% -14  0% 8 - 7 4 - 2 F -23 D- -7 F B B- F -19 F C- D
 Fri, Jan 23 329 Fairleigh Dickinson L 66 - 76 74% -4  42% 8 - 8 4 - 3 F -24 D+ -3 D B- F+ F -23 F B+ F
 Mon, Jan 26 345 @Stonehill L 59 - 61 58% +3  79% 8 - 9 4 - 4 D- -12 F -11 C+ F F C -1 D B+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 324 @Wagner W 62 - 55 50% +2  63% 9 - 9 5 - 4 C -0 D- -8 D F+ C- A- +8 A+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 214 LIU Brooklyn L 59 - 80 44% -2  40% 9 - 10 5 - 5 F -27 F -14 F F B- F -14 F+ D F
 Thu, Feb 5 351 Chicago St. W 78 - 67 81% +3  66% 10 - 10 6 - 5 D+ -6 C+ +3 B A F D- -8 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 324 Wagner W 84 - 67 72% +9  91% 11 - 10 7 - 5 C+ +4 B +7 B+ A+ D+ C- -2 A- C- F
 Thu, Feb 12 325 @New Haven W 81 - 76 51% +6  87% 12 - 10 8 - 5 C- -3 B +7 A+ F F F+ -9 C+ F D-
 Sat, Feb 14 329 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 63 - 57 52% +5  93% 13 - 10 9 - 5 C- -2 C- -1 F C- B+ C+ +0 A+ F D
 Thu, Feb 19 296 Le Moyne W 78 - 77 63% +8  99% 14 - 10 10 - 5 D -10 D+ -3 B+ F B- D- -7 F A D-
 Sat, Feb 21 351 @Chicago St. W 74 - 71 62%
 Thu, Feb 26 301 Mercyhurst W 70 - 66 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 355 St. Francis (PA) W 82 - 72 83%
Totals 16 - 11 12 - 6 -7 C- -2 C C+ F D -5 C+ B+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B- C C+ C+ 30% 50% 38% F C D+ D+ D C D B+ D+ D C+ C- D+ C 42% 14% 43% D- C- C- C+ C F+ B- F C+
1.06 62% 38% 35% +2 -2 1.01 27% 1.0 .26 17% .26 78% .20 1.16 55% 40% 36% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .32 13% .27 80% .21
Nov
6		 Quinnipiac F F D- F F 26% 34% 40% F F D C D+ A D- F F+ C+ B D D+ C- 47% 17% 37% F D+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ C- A+
0.71 36% 28% 19% -18 -3 0.60 28% 1.0 .28 13% .23 64% .15 1.03 50% 40% 36% -2 +1 1.00 26% 0.6 .16 7% .11 71% .08
Nov
11		 Boston College D F+ B+ A B+ 31% 33% 37% F+ B B F F+ D- F D- F A+ B+ D A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% D A D A+ A- C A+ F B+
0.92 47% 44% 39% +1 -2 1.00 32% 0.4 .14 18% .19 60% .11 0.90 50% 44% 21% -11 0 0.80 34% 0.6 .20 15% .16 89% .14
Nov
16		 Massachusetts D- C+ F A- C- 43% 31% 27% D- D+ F A+ D+ C A D B+ C+ A- B- C- B+ 40% 19% 40% D+ B F D F B+ F A+ B-
0.99 62% 27% 38% 0 -1 1.00 16% 1.6 .25 17% .48 68% .32 1.08 48% 36% 35% -4 0 0.95 44% 1.3 .56 22% .41 48% .20
Nov
21		 Rutgers C+ C- D A C+ 31% 37% 33% F C- C F F A+ C D+ C- A+ A- A A- A+ 35% 29% 37% D+ A A A+ A+ C+ A+ B A+
1.08 56% 32% 41% +1 -3 0.98 33% 0.5 .18 11% .25 71% .18 0.87 47% 29% 28% -10 -1 0.80 26% 0.8 .21 16% .19 70% .13
Nov
24		 Sacred Heart A- A+ B+ A- A 46% 28% 26% D- B+ D A+ A+ C+ A+ B A+ F C- F F F 39% 16% 44% D F C- F D F+ F F F
1.32 77% 44% 40% +13 0 1.26 28% 1.9 .52 13% .47 76% .35 1.30 58% 50% 44% +9 +1 1.21 27% 1.2 .33 15% .37 96% .36
Dec
3		 Seton Hall C+ A- F A+ A+ 41% 18% 41% C+ A+ D+ F F C F B F+ D- A+ C F F 49% 16% 35% D- F B- A+ A+ D- A- F B-
0.96 61% 25% 44% +5 0 1.14 26% 0.3 .06 24% .25 75% .19 1.21 44% 38% 61% +7 +1 1.20 32% 0.5 .18 13% .27 80% .22
Dec
7		 Northeastern F F F F F 44% 25% 31% D F F F F A D- F F C+ C+ C- C C 44% 10% 46% D- C A F C D B F C-
0.82 50% 14% 24% -14 0 0.73 21% 0.7 .15 13% .29 59% .17 1.07 57% 40% 33% -1 +2 1.04 19% 1.5 .29 15% .24 86% .21
Dec
13		 Binghamton B+ A+ C A+ A+ 42% 19% 38% C- A+ F+ D+ D- F F C+ F D+ D- A+ A C- 56% 9% 35% F D C F D+ F+ F+ C+ D-
1.29 82% 40% 45% +17 0 1.37 25% 1.0 .25 18% .21 73% .15 1.03 63% 25% 27% -3 +3 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 17% .44 75% .33
Dec
18		 Fairfield D- F D C F 30% 22% 48% F F C- A+ B A- F+ A+ D F D+ F F F 40% 15% 45% D- F B- F D+ D+ B- F C
1.06 31% 33% 35% -9 -1 0.83 30% 1.3 .40 12% .22 85% .19 1.27 59% 50% 44% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.1 .34 14% .23 77% .17
Jan
2		 LIU Brooklyn A+ B+ B A+ A+ 37% 30% 33% F A+ C C C A C- A- C+ F A F F F 42% 10% 48% F F F C F F F C F+
1.33 65% 43% 53% +13 -1 1.26 35% 1.0 .35 14% .32 75% .24 1.43 45% 60% 48% +7 +2 1.19 54% 0.9 .51 9% .37 65% .24
Jan
4		 New Haven B+ C- A- A+ A+ 29% 23% 48% F+ A D+ A- C C+ F D F F+ B- B- B+ B- 37% 12% 51% F+ C+ F F F C A+ B+ A+
1.23 57% 45% 48% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.3 .32 15% .14 71% .10 1.04 56% 33% 28% -6 +1 0.92 40% 1.1 .46 19% .06 67% .04
Jan
8		 Stonehill C+ A- B A+ A 28% 40% 33% F B+ D+ A+ A F A+ A+ A+ F B- F F F 55% 6% 39% F F D- A+ B D+ C+ B+ B-
1.15 67% 41% 43% +8 -3 1.12 24% 1.8 .44 20% .45 83% .38 1.04 50% 67% 40% +1 +3 1.10 32% 0.5 .18 20% .21 64% .13
Jan
10		 Le Moyne F+ C+ A+ F D- 24% 39% 37% F F B- F D D A+ A- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 51% 6% 43% F A+ C C C D+ B+ F C-
0.97 58% 47% 17% -6 -3 0.84 34% 0.8 .26 17% .44 81% .36 0.83 37% 33% 17% -22 +3 0.64 25% 1.0 .25 18% .28 88% .24
Jan
17		 St. Francis (PA) A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 28% 34% 38% F A+ F B- F A+ A+ A A+ F D+ D- F F 18% 30% 52% A+ F+ F D- F F F D+ F
1.43 85% 44% 56% +22 -2 1.40 16% 1.3 .20 10% .55 79% .44 1.32 60% 41% 41% +7 -3 1.11 41% 1.1 .44 9% .35 73% .26
Jan
19		 Mercyhurst D- D F F F 35% 25% 40% F+ F B- C+ B B- F A D F B- F F F 37% 33% 29% C- F F A C- D A+ F A
0.99 53% 25% 21% -13 -1 0.75 38% 1.1 .40 16% .29 80% .23 1.28 53% 59% 60% +16 -2 1.31 33% 0.9 .30 13% .07 100% .07
Jan
23		 Fairleigh Dickinson D+ F+ A+ D- C- 36% 34% 30% F D B+ D+ B- F+ F+ A+ D+ F F A+ F F 40% 20% 40% C- F A+ D B+ F A- F B-
1.12 50% 60% 31% +3 -2 1.05 36% 0.9 .32 19% .27 85% .23 1.29 70% 20% 50% +11 0 1.24 21% 1.0 .21 9% .20 82% .17
Jan
26		 Stonehill F C- C+ A+ B- 47% 31% 22% D C+ F D+ F F F F F C F F A+ D+ 47% 9% 44% F D C- A+ B+ D+ F B- F
0.90 54% 38% 45% +2 -1 1.04 17% 1.0 .17 20% .08 50% .04 0.93 71% 50% 15% -5 +2 0.96 29% 0.6 .17 20% .46 67% .30
Jan
29		 Wagner D- B+ F F+ D- 43% 13% 43% C+ D F B F+ C- F+ B- D A- A F A+ A+ 40% 7% 53% F A+ C+ B- B- F F C+ F
1.03 65% 17% 30% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 75% .24 0.92 41% 67% 17% -18 +2 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 12% .41 68% .28
Jan
31		 LIU Brooklyn F C- F F+ F 25% 33% 41% F F D- F F B- D A+ B+ F D+ B+ F F+ 51% 19% 30% D- F+ B F D F F F F
0.89 54% 18% 29% -11 -3 0.75 27% 0.8 .22 17% .29 94% .27 1.21 63% 33% 43% +5 +1 1.15 31% 1.2 .38 14% .44 76% .33
Feb
5		 Chicago St. C+ A+ A+ B B+ 24% 17% 59% F+ B B- A A F B+ A+ A+ D- F+ A+ C+ C- 35% 24% 41% F D+ A+ A+ A+ F B- F C
1.25 80% 57% 38% +12 -1 1.24 39% 1.3 .52 24% .40 89% .36 1.07 63% 23% 32% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.7 .11 5% .24 86% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Wagner B A+ F A+ A+ 36% 43% 21% F B+ C+ A+ A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ C- A+ D- A A 41% 20% 39% D+ A- C+ D C- F B- C- C+
1.28 87% 28% 56% +13 -3 1.21 32% 1.7 .55 15% .56 77% .43 1.02 39% 45% 27% -10 0 0.82 31% 1.2 .36 14% .25 71% .18
Feb
12		 New Haven B A+ B+ A+ A+ 30% 35% 35% F A+ F+ F F F A+ D+ A+ F+ B+ F+ A- B- 50% 19% 31% F+ C+ D F F D- F F F
1.17 79% 44% 56% +20 -2 1.37 19% 0.6 .12 22% .41 73% .30 1.10 50% 44% 27% -6 +1 0.92 26% 1.6 .42 16% .38 95% .36
Feb
14		 Fairleigh Dickinson C- C+ B+ F D 18% 49% 33% F F B+ F C- B+ C A+ A C+ A A+ A+ A+ 38% 14% 48% D- A+ F F F D F F F
1.12 63% 45% 27% +1 -5 0.93 34% 0.7 .25 12% .34 94% .32 1.01 44% 17% 10% -26 +1 0.52 44% 1.1 .49 16% .48 83% .40
Feb
19		 Le Moyne D+ A+ A+ C- A 21% 32% 48% F B+ F F F B- F A+ F D- B+ F+ F F 42% 21% 37% C+ F B+ A+ A D- B F+ C+
1.10 77% 55% 33% +9 -3 1.14 17% 0.8 .14 13% .02 100% .02 1.09 50% 45% 53% +8 0 1.19 19% 0.7 .13 17% .29 76% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 0.6 15.5 43.9 33.3 93.3 2nd
3rd 1.6 4.2 5.9 3rd
4th 0.6 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 2.8 19.7 43.9 33.6 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.7% 0.2    0.2
12-4 0.0%
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 33.6% 22.1% 22.1% 15.8 0.0 1.5 5.9 26.1
12-4 43.9% 19.5% 19.5% 16.0 0.2 8.4 35.3
11-5 19.7% 16.2% 16.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2 16.5
10-6 2.8% 14.1% 14.1% 16.0 0.4 2.4
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 19.6% 19.6% 0.0% 15.9 80.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.4% 100.0% 15.8 0.3 20.1 79.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.5%
Lose Out 0.9%