Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#240
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#128
Pace66.7#245
Improvement-1.4#266

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#311
First Shot-1.1#207
After Offensive Rebound-4.0#348
Layup/Dunks+1.0#141
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#17
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#300
Freethrows-2.3#301
Improvement-1.2#277

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#147
First Shot+0.2#170
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#138
Layups/Dunks-4.6#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#51
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#162
Freethrows+2.4#52
Improvement-0.2#193
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.2% 39.5% 31.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 92.3% 96.0% 87.5%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 96.0% 92.7%
Conference Champion 53.8% 58.1% 48.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 1.0%
First Four13.5% 12.2% 15.2%
First Round29.0% 33.1% 23.6%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Away) - 57.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 32 - 23 - 4
Quad 416 - 719 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 79   @ Providence L 55-59 10%     0 - 1 +6.1 -6.6 +12.2
  Nov 08, 2024 101   @ Saint Joseph's W 73-67 13%     1 - 1 +13.9 +6.3 +7.7
  Nov 16, 2024 152   Northeastern L 62-80 32%     1 - 2 -17.5 -8.3 -9.4
  Nov 21, 2024 269   @ Sacred Heart L 54-67 45%     1 - 3 -16.0 -18.9 +2.4
  Nov 24, 2024 322   Binghamton W 64-56 77%     2 - 3 -4.0 -0.7 -1.5
  Dec 01, 2024 154   Umass Lowell W 69-67 44%     3 - 3 -0.7 -7.9 +7.2
  Dec 04, 2024 171   @ Massachusetts W 73-69 26%     4 - 3 +6.3 +2.9 +3.5
  Dec 07, 2024 326   @ Holy Cross W 69-67 57%    
  Dec 15, 2024 91   @ Rhode Island L 66-79 11%    
  Dec 18, 2024 283   @ Fairfield L 67-68 47%    
  Dec 21, 2024 245   Quinnipiac W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 03, 2025 339   @ St. Francis (PA) W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 05, 2025 361   @ Mercyhurst W 67-60 75%    
  Jan 10, 2025 300   Wagner W 61-55 71%    
  Jan 12, 2025 342   LIU Brooklyn W 73-63 82%    
  Jan 18, 2025 341   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 24, 2025 334   @ Le Moyne W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 26, 2025 359   Chicago St. W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 30, 2025 342   @ LIU Brooklyn W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 336   @ Stonehill W 67-64 60%    
  Feb 06, 2025 341   Fairleigh Dickinson W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 13, 2025 361   Mercyhurst W 70-57 89%    
  Feb 15, 2025 339   St. Francis (PA) W 74-65 80%    
  Feb 20, 2025 359   @ Chicago St. W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 336   Stonehill W 70-61 78%    
  Feb 27, 2025 334   Le Moyne W 73-64 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 300   @ Wagner L 57-58 50%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 5.4 11.6 14.4 12.1 7.0 2.3 53.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 5.0 8.0 5.0 1.6 0.2 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.5 4.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.0 1.0 0.1 6.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.1 8.0 11.6 15.5 16.8 16.0 12.3 7.0 2.3 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.3    2.3
15-1 100.0% 7.0    7.0 0.1
14-2 98.2% 12.1    11.3 0.7
13-3 89.8% 14.4    11.5 2.8 0.1
12-4 68.8% 11.6    6.8 4.3 0.5 0.0
11-5 34.9% 5.4    1.8 2.4 1.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 8.7% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 53.8% 53.8 40.7 10.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.3% 66.2% 66.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.8
15-1 7.0% 57.3% 57.3% 14.5 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.7 0.4 3.0
14-2 12.3% 51.7% 51.7% 15.1 0.2 1.1 3.2 1.9 5.9
13-3 16.0% 44.7% 44.7% 15.5 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.0 8.9
12-4 16.8% 38.5% 38.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.2 10.3
11-5 15.5% 30.9% 30.9% 15.9 0.4 4.4 10.7
10-6 11.6% 25.7% 25.7% 16.0 0.1 2.9 8.6
9-7 8.0% 19.1% 19.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5 6.5
8-8 5.1% 17.6% 17.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9 4.2
7-9 3.0% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 0.3 2.7
6-10 1.4% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.1 1.3
5-11 0.6% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-12 0.3% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 36.2% 36.2% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 9.5 21.8 63.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.2 7.8 64.7 25.5 2.0