Fairleigh Dickinson
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -13.2 #353
Expected Predictive Rating -19.4 #359
Pace 69.2 #191
Improvement +2.5 #66

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #313 D+ F D D+ C+
Defense #358 F C- B- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #312 1.09 #267 -4.4 #317
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #293 0.84 #85 -1.4 #243
Three Pointers 52% #17 0.92 #277 +3.2 #87
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #247 -2.6 #247
Freethrows 14.9 #300 65% #347 9.6 #328
Second Chance 29.8% #214 0.88 #339 0.26 #294
Turnovers 17.9% #254
Total Offense -5.3 #313

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #256 1.36 #356 -2.2 #257
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #263 0.75 #174 +1.1 #116
Three Pointers 46% #51 1.27 #364 -8.7 #362
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #362 -9.8 #362
Freethrows 19.0 #276 70% #84 13.3 #237
Second Chance 30.9% #184 0.92 #50 0.29 #100
Turnovers 15.1% #279
Total Defense -8.0 #358

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #148 0.4% #196
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.7% #264 18.7% #364
Possession Length 18.3 #276 16.7 #98
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #362 0.20 #281
Improvement +0.0 #187 +2.5 #43

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 3.5% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 40.0% 51.2% 24.4%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 15.9% 8.7% 25.9%
First Four2.8% 3.5% 2.0%
First Round1.1% 1.4% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 58.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 8
Quad 47 - 148 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 4 @Iowa St. L 50-88 0.2%    -23.6   0 - 1 -12.4 -10.4 -1.6
  Sat, Nov 8 254 @St. Peter's L 83-93 16%     -7.0   0 - 2 -12.4 +7.2 -19.0
  Wed, Nov 12 46 @Texas L 58-93 1%     -16.7   0 - 3 -20.5 -12.8 -6.2
  Sat, Nov 15 355 @NJIT L 81-93 39%     -10.6   0 - 4 -22.3 -0.7 -20.5
  Mon, Nov 24 326 East Texas A&M L 65-70 49%     5.5   0 - 5 -18.0 -8.5 -9.7
  Wed, Nov 26 324 Army L 73-81 49%     -1.6   0 - 6 -20.8 -2.9 -18.3
  Tue, Dec 2 69 @Providence L 64-94 2%     -23.0   0 - 7 -18.6 -1.6 -18.9
  Wed, Dec 10 190 @Fordham L 54-75 10%     -10.7   0 - 8 -20.1 -13.1 -8.5
  Mon, Dec 22 154 @Boston College L 61-72 7%     2.3   0 - 9 -8.0 +3.5 -13.3
  Mon, Dec 29 84 @Minnesota L 43-60 3%     -7.3   0 - 10 -7.1 -18.0 +8.2
  Fri, Jan 2 320 @Mercyhurst W 74-67 26%     -0.4   1 - 10 1 - 0 +0.5 +6.6 -5.5
  Sun, Jan 4 363 @St. Francis (PA) L 82-85 53%     0.3   1 - 11 1 - 1 -16.9 +0.8 -17.6
  Thu, Jan 8 349 Chicago St. W 77-75 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 332 @New Haven L 66-72 30%    
  Sat, Jan 17 191 LIU Brooklyn L 73-81 22%    
  Mon, Jan 19 301 Wagner L 73-75 41%    
  Fri, Jan 23 271 @Central Connecticut St. L 69-79 18%    
  Sun, Jan 25 310 Le Moyne L 77-79 43%    
  Thu, Jan 29 338 @Stonehill L 67-72 33%    
  Sat, Jan 31 301 @Wagner L 70-78 22%    
  Thu, Feb 5 338 Stonehill W 70-69 54%    
  Sat, Feb 7 320 Mercyhurst L 69-70 48%    
  Thu, Feb 12 363 St. Francis (PA) W 79-72 73%    
  Sat, Feb 14 271 Central Connecticut St. L 72-76 35%    
  Thu, Feb 19 349 @Chicago St. L 74-78 37%    
  Sat, Feb 21 332 New Haven W 70-69 51%    
  Thu, Feb 26 310 @Le Moyne L 74-82 23%    
  Sat, Feb 28 191 @LIU Brooklyn L 70-84 10%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.6 3.1 0.7 0.1 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.1 5.2 1.0 0.1 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 4.2 6.6 1.9 0.1 13.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.2 7.6 2.8 0.1 15.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.3 8.1 3.9 0.3 0.0 17.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 5.0 6.5 3.3 0.3 16.7 9th
10th 0.3 1.2 2.8 3.0 1.2 0.2 8.7 10th
Total 0.3 1.4 4.3 8.8 12.6 16.2 16.6 14.4 11.4 7.0 4.0 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 92.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-2 81.1% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-3 52.5% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-4 17.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-5 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.3% 20.0% 20.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.2
13-3 0.8% 16.5% 16.5% 16.0 0.1 0.7
12-4 2.1% 12.1% 12.1% 16.0 0.3 1.8
11-5 4.0% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.3 3.7
10-6 7.0% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.4 6.7
9-7 11.4% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.4 10.9
8-8 14.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.4 14.0
7-9 16.6% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.4 16.2
6-10 16.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 15.9
5-11 12.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 12.4
4-12 8.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.7
3-13 4.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.3
2-14 1.4% 1.4
1-15 0.3% 0.3
0-16
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.9 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%