Fairleigh Dickinson
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.3#341
Expected Predictive Rating-12.6#340
Pace78.5#17
Improvement+1.6#81

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#262
First Shot-2.2#237
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#232
Layup/Dunks-0.2#192
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#112
Freethrows-1.6#268
Improvement+0.0#180

Defense
Total Defense-8.2#359
First Shot-5.1#329
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#347
Layups/Dunks-7.4#355
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#36
Freethrows-0.8#239
Improvement+1.5#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 11.2% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 4.2% 18.6% 4.0%
.500 or above in Conference 49.1% 66.3% 48.9%
Conference Champion 6.4% 12.7% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 13.8% 6.4% 13.8%
First Four6.3% 10.5% 6.3%
First Round2.7% 5.3% 2.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Away) - 1.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 49 - 119 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 87   @ Miami (FL) L 72-113 4%     0 - 1 -31.8 -5.8 -23.5
  Nov 10, 2024 40   @ Creighton L 70-96 2%     0 - 2 -11.3 -2.7 -5.8
  Nov 13, 2024 44   @ Nebraska L 60-86 2%     0 - 3 -12.0 -6.8 -4.3
  Nov 17, 2024 313   Manhattan W 85-82 49%     1 - 3 -8.1 +7.0 -15.0
  Nov 20, 2024 282   @ Army L 70-84 22%     1 - 4 -17.4 -5.9 -11.1
  Nov 26, 2024 209   St. Peter's L 76-78 28%     1 - 5 -7.3 +6.1 -13.5
  Dec 01, 2024 283   @ Fairfield L 74-78 23%     1 - 6 -7.4 -0.2 -7.2
  Dec 04, 2024 201   @ Fordham L 75-84 12%     1 - 7 -7.9 -4.0 -2.9
  Dec 11, 2024 56   @ Villanova L 64-88 1%    
  Dec 18, 2024 143   @ La Salle L 76-91 8%    
  Dec 21, 2024 112   @ Minnesota L 63-81 5%    
  Dec 28, 2024 145   @ Boston College L 70-85 8%    
  Jan 05, 2025 300   @ Wagner L 64-71 25%    
  Jan 10, 2025 334   @ Le Moyne L 78-82 35%    
  Jan 12, 2025 339   St. Francis (PA) W 82-80 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 240   Central Connecticut St. L 73-77 36%    
  Jan 20, 2025 359   @ Chicago St. L 80-81 50%    
  Jan 26, 2025 336   @ Stonehill L 75-79 35%    
  Jan 30, 2025 334   Le Moyne W 81-79 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 361   Mercyhurst W 76-70 72%    
  Feb 06, 2025 240   @ Central Connecticut St. L 70-80 19%    
  Feb 08, 2025 300   Wagner L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 13, 2025 359   Chicago St. W 83-77 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 342   @ LIU Brooklyn L 78-81 40%    
  Feb 20, 2025 361   @ Mercyhurst W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 339   @ St. Francis (PA) L 79-83 38%    
  Feb 27, 2025 336   Stonehill W 78-76 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 342   LIU Brooklyn W 81-78 61%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 3.7 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 5.4 4.3 1.2 0.1 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 6.0 5.0 0.9 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.4 5.8 1.1 0.0 13.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 5.2 6.0 1.3 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 4.4 5.6 1.4 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.2 3.4 4.4 1.4 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.8 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.0 9th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.0 6.7 10.4 13.4 14.1 14.6 12.8 9.3 6.3 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-2 93.7% 0.6    0.6 0.1
13-3 83.1% 1.4    1.1 0.3 0.0
12-4 56.1% 2.0    1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
11-5 26.2% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 4.8% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 6.4% 6.4 3.3 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.2% 38.5% 38.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.1
14-2 0.7% 27.9% 27.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.5
13-3 1.7% 22.9% 22.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4 1.3
12-4 3.6% 19.0% 19.0% 16.0 0.7 3.0
11-5 6.3% 15.8% 15.8% 16.0 1.0 5.3
10-6 9.3% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 1.0 8.3
9-7 12.8% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 1.1 11.7
8-8 14.6% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.9 13.7
7-9 14.1% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.6 13.5
6-10 13.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.3 13.1
5-11 10.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 10.3
4-12 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
3-13 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.0
2-14 1.6% 1.6
1-15 0.5% 0.5
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.5 93.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%