Georgetown
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.8 74
Expected Predictive Rating +7.0 82
Pace 67.0 230
Improvement +3.1 70

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 71 C+ B B+ B+ C-
Defense B- 97 B- C+ C C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 184 C 58% 169 +0.1 177
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 151 B- 41% 70 +1.3 107
Three Pointers 39% 223 C+ 34% 152 -0.7 205
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 229 C+ +1.1 130
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 142
Second Chance B- 33.7% 86 B 1.12 60 B 0.38 58
Turnovers B+ 13.7% 26
Freethrows B 0.35 61 B 76% 72 B+ 0.26 39
Total Offense B +5.0 71

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A- 62% 18 C- 11.7% 226
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 38% 33 A- 1.2% 7
Three Pointers C+ 85% 162 D+ 1.2% 271
Total B+ 64% 36 C+ 5.3% 141

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 320 B+ 52% 38 -5.4 34
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 46 C- 39% 234 +2.4 339
Three Pointers 42% 154 C 34% 193 +0.5 203
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.0 36 C+ -1.7 108
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 90
Second Chance C+ 29.1% 128 C+ 0.99 114 C+ 0.29 110
Turnovers C 16.7% 190
Freethrows C+ 0.29 128 C- 73% 215 C+ 0.21 139
Total Defense B- +2.8 97

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 98 C+ 13.1% 90
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 250 C 5.2% 146
Three Pointers B 79% 62 B- 1.5% 66
Total C+ 53% 118 C+ 6.2% 127

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 98 18.9 349
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 18 0.15 117
Improvement +2.7 #69 +0.4 #160

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 92 74 58
Conference Record 5 - 15 7 - 13 9 - 11
Conference Finish 10 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 1% 0%
Average Seed 11.6 11.2 12.2
.500 or above 37% 66% 24%
.500 or above in Conference 1% 3% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 16% 6% 21%
First Four0% 1% 0%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Away) - 31.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 9
Quad 25 - 66 - 15
Quad 34 - 210 - 17
Quad 46 - 016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 352 Morgan St. W 87 - 70 98% +10  75% 1 - 0 C +0 D+ -4 F C A+ B- +3 C- C- B
 Fri, Nov 7 107 @Maryland W 70 - 60 53% +10  99% 2 - 0 A- +17 C- -1 F C+ C+ A+ +18 A+ C+ C+
 Wed, Nov 12 359 Binghamton W 83 - 70 98% +8  91% 3 - 0 D+ -6 C+ +2 F+ B A+ D- -8 C- C+ D+
 Sat, Nov 15 38 Clemson W 79 - 74 40% +1  47% 4 - 0 A- +16 A- +11 B+ B- A+ B +4 A- B- C
 Sat, Nov 22 324 Wagner W 92 - 75 97% +11  90% 5 - 0 C+ +4 C+ +3 C B B C -1 D+ B B
 Thu, Nov 27 88 Dayton L 79 - 84 OT 56% -7  6% 5 - 1 C +1 C+ +2 B+ D A C -1 B- C C
 Fri, Nov 28 40 Miami (FL) L 65 - 78 31% -14  0% 5 - 2 C +0 C +1 F A+ B C- -2 F B- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 232 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 90 - 81 91% +11  99% 6 - 2 C+ +2 A+ +15 A A- A F -13 D+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 30 @North Carolina L 61 - 81 18% -7  15% 6 - 3 C- -2 F+ -8 F C- A+ B+ +6 C A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 235 St. Peter's W 76 - 68 OT 91% +7  96% 7 - 3 C +1 C- -2 C B- D+ B- +3 B- A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 87 @Marquette W 78 - 69 44% +2  55% 8 - 3 1 - 0 A +18 A+ +14 C A+ A+ B +5 A D- D-
 Sat, Dec 20 82 Xavier L 77 - 80 65% +2  67% 8 - 4 1 - 1 C +1 C- -2 C- D+ A B- +3 C B- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 364 Coppin St. W 97 - 67 99% +22  99% 9 - 4 B +8 A- +10 B+ D A+ C- -3 D+ D D-
 Wed, Dec 31 20 St. John's L 83 - 95 26% -6  28% 9 - 5 1 - 2 C+ +3 A+ +16 A+ B A- F -14 F+ F B
 Tue, Jan 6 93 @DePaul L 50 - 56 45% -2  27% 9 - 6 1 - 3 C+ +3 F -16 F A+ C A+ +18 A A- A
 Sat, Jan 10 56 Seton Hall L 67 - 76 53% +2  77% 9 - 7 1 - 4 C- -2 C +0 D- B- A+ C- -2 A D- C
 Tue, Jan 13 60 @Creighton L 83 - 86 OT 34% +1  53% 9 - 8 1 - 5 B +9 A+ +19 A+ A+ B+ F -10 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 9 Connecticut L 62 - 64 20% -4  15% 9 - 9 1 - 6 A- +15 B +6 B- A+ D A +8 A+ B F
 Wed, Jan 21 31 @Villanova L 51 - 66 18% -8  13% 9 - 10 1 - 7 C+ +3 F -10 D- F+ F A+ +12 A+ B C
 Sat, Jan 24 64 @Providence W 81 - 78 35% -9  11% 10 - 10 2 - 7 A- +15 A +14 A+ C A- C+ +1 B B D
 Wed, Jan 28 93 DePaul W 70 - 61 68% +6  97% 11 - 10 3 - 7 B+ +12 A +12 A+ F+ B+ B- +2 B C- B-
 Sat, Jan 31 78 @Butler W 77 - 64 40% +5  83% 12 - 10 4 - 7 A+ +24 A +12 A+ D+ B A+ +13 A+ A+ F+
 Wed, Feb 4 60 Creighton W 76 - 68 57% +4  58% 13 - 10 5 - 7 B+ +14 D+ -2 D D+ C- A+ +16 B+ A A+
 Sat, Feb 7 31 Villanova L 73 - 80 35% +1  58% 13 - 11 5 - 8 C+ +5 B- +4 D A+ C+ C+ +1 D+ B+ D+
 Sat, Feb 14 9 @Connecticut L 75 - 79 9% -7  0% 13 - 12 5 - 9 A +19 A+ +16 A+ B+ B+ B- +2 C+ C+ C-
 Wed, Feb 18 78 Butler L 89 - 93 63% -9  0% 13 - 13 5 - 10 C +1 A+ +16 A+ A A+ F -16 F B+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 56 @Seton Hall L 65 - 70 31%
 Tue, Feb 24 87 Marquette W 78 - 74 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 82 @Xavier L 77 - 79 42%
 Tue, Mar 3 20 @St. John's L 70 - 83 11%
 Sat, Mar 7 64 Providence W 85 - 83 58%
Totals 15 - 16 7 - 13 +8 B +5 A+ C+ C- B- +3 C+ B B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C B- C+ C+ 38% 40% 39% C- C+ B- B B B+ B B B+ B- B+ C- C C+ 33% 26% 42% B+ B- C+ C+ C+ C C+ C- C+
1.16 58% 41% 34% +1 0 1.04 34% 1.1 .38 14% .35 76% .26 1.05 52% 39% 34% -2 -1 0.97 29% 1.0 .29 17% .29 73% .25
Nov
3		 Morgan St. D+ D A+ F F 46% 9% 44% B- F C C+ C A+ A+ D+ A B- A+ B F C 38% 27% 35% D+ C- C D+ C- B F+ B- D
1.15 56% 80% 17% -9 +2 0.89 35% 1.3 .45 9% .57 69% .39 0.93 39% 31% 41% -5 -1 0.90 30% 0.9 .27 21% .40 71% .29
Nov
7		 Maryland C- D+ F+ F F 46% 15% 39% B F C B- C+ C+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ 43% 15% 41% D A+ A F C+ C+ F F F
1.01 52% 29% 22% -11 +1 0.83 28% 1.1 .31 16% .53 74% .40 0.87 30% 29% 16% -25 +1 0.54 29% 1.3 .36 19% .66 81% .53
Nov
12		 Binghamton C+ D- A+ F D- 44% 27% 29% D- F+ A- D+ B A+ C+ A+ B D- C C- D+ D- 20% 34% 45% A+ C- C- A- C+ D+ F F F
1.24 52% 57% 27% -1 0 1.00 41% 1.0 .41 6% .33 81% .27 1.05 56% 40% 35% +1 -3 0.98 21% 0.7 .14 19% .46 92% .43
Nov
15		 Clemson A- C A- C+ A- 37% 33% 31% D+ B+ D+ A+ B- A+ A+ B- A+ B C+ A+ D+ B+ 32% 21% 47% A A- B- B- B- C C+ B- B-
1.13 56% 44% 33% +1 -2 1.00 19% 1.3 .26 11% .52 78% .40 1.06 59% 27% 36% -1 0 1.00 28% 1.0 .28 14% .33 70% .23
Nov
22		 Wagner C+ B- D+ B C 42% 25% 33% D- C C- A+ B B B+ A+ A+ C C+ C+ D+ D+ 37% 21% 42% C- D+ B B- B B D D D-
1.23 61% 36% 39% +3 0 1.07 29% 1.4 .40 12% .43 89% .38 1.00 53% 36% 36% -1 0 1.00 28% 1.0 .28 21% .32 74% .24
Nov
27		 Dayton C+ B- C+ A B+ 36% 24% 40% C B+ D+ F D A B- D C+ C A+ A- F C+ 33% 16% 51% B+ B- C- B C C F D+ F
1.05 60% 38% 41% +5 -1 1.11 26% 0.8 .21 17% .34 67% .22 1.11 41% 25% 42% -1 0 1.00 30% 1.1 .33 17% .51 78% .40
Nov
28		 Miami (FL) C C- F F F 33% 22% 46% C+ F A+ A+ A+ B A+ C- A+ C- A+ F F F 56% 22% 22% C F B- B- B- A+ B- F+ C
1.00 53% 10% 24% -15 -1 0.72 40% 1.4 .55 17% .44 67% .30 1.20 48% 90% 60% +15 +1 1.33 36% 1.0 .36 23% .32 75% .24
Dec
3		 Maryland Baltimore Co. A+ A F A+ A 42% 18% 40% C+ A D A+ A- A F+ C+ D- F C F C D 34% 29% 38% B D+ F F F F C+ F+ C-
1.34 71% 20% 48% +11 +1 1.25 24% 1.7 .41 9% .16 70% .11 1.21 58% 50% 33% +3 -1 1.05 30% 1.2 .36 10% .27 81% .22
Dec
7		 North Carolina F+ D F F F 37% 32% 31% C- F D+ C C- A+ D+ B+ C B+ B- F C+ D+ 22% 28% 50% A+ C A+ C- A+ C C+ B- B-
0.86 48% 20% 21% -16 -2 0.68 22% 0.9 .20 6% .18 75% .13 1.14 58% 67% 33% +8 -2 1.13 22% 1.1 .25 13% .34 67% .22
Dec
13		 St. Peter's C- B- F F D+ 55% 10% 36% A C C+ B B- D+ A+ F A+ B- D+ F A+ B- 29% 20% 51% C+ B- A A+ A+ C- F A+ F
1.07 61% 25% 27% -4 +3 1.00 38% 1.2 .44 21% .64 67% .43 0.96 57% 50% 20% -9 -1 0.84 26% 0.7 .19 17% .49 66% .32
Dec
17		 Marquette A+ C+ B- F C- 52% 22% 26% B- C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B B A+ A A 48% 10% 42% C+ A C+ F D- D- A B- A
1.21 58% 40% 25% -3 +1 0.98 44% 1.2 .53 14% .42 87% .36 1.07 52% 20% 27% -9 +2 0.88 31% 1.3 .38 11% .21 67% .14
Dec
20		 Xavier C- F A+ A+ C- 48% 29% 23% C C- C+ F D+ A A+ F A+ B- B F C+ C- 31% 34% 36% A- C F A+ B- A+ B- F+ C
1.03 39% 50% 45% -2 0 0.98 28% 0.7 .19 13% .67 58% .39 1.07 56% 55% 33% +5 -2 1.07 37% 0.6 .24 19% .23 79% .18
Dec
22		 Coppin St. A- B+ A A B+ 42% 11% 47% B- B+ F+ B+ D A+ A- D B C- B- B F D 31% 33% 35% A- D+ C F D D- C+ A+ A-
1.34 70% 50% 42% +12 +2 1.29 28% 1.3 .34 10% .43 71% .31 0.93 50% 29% 39% -3 -2 0.92 28% 1.2 .33 19% .31 50% .15
Dec
31		 St. John's A+ C- A A+ A+ 40% 26% 34% C- A+ A D+ B A- A+ A- A+ F B+ A- F F 29% 21% 50% A+ F+ D- F F B D D F+
1.19 50% 46% 47% +6 -1 1.12 39% 0.9 .33 17% .40 78% .31 1.36 50% 30% 50% +8 -1 1.17 42% 1.6 .70 16% .44 77% .34
Jan
6		 DePaul F F F F F 41% 34% 25% D+ F B A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F+ B+ 16% 42% 42% A+ A B A- A- A F A D+
0.75 17% 20% 9% -32 -2 0.34 33% 1.5 .49 20% .58 81% .47 0.84 71% 17% 39% -4 -4 0.86 27% 1.0 .27 23% .41 62% .25
Jan
10		 Seton Hall C F F A- D 37% 29% 35% D- D- B C+ B- A+ C+ A+ A C- A+ F B+ A 42% 29% 29% B+ A C- D- D- C F C- F
0.96 32% 27% 39% -10 -1 0.79 34% 0.9 .32 17% .36 86% .31 1.09 35% 50% 29% -8 -1 0.83 37% 1.1 .42 16% .56 73% .41
Jan
13		 Creighton A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 37% 35% 29% D A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ B B- B F F F F F 25% 22% 53% A- F B+ D B- F A F+ B+
1.29 74% 39% 47% +11 -2 1.21 35% 1.9 .65 12% .25 71% .18 1.33 79% 50% 45% +16 -1 1.33 23% 1.1 .27 9% .19 82% .15
Jan
17		 Connecticut B D C+ B B+ 33% 36% 31% F B- A+ A A+ D F A- F A A+ F A+ A+ 31% 20% 49% A- A+ D+ A B F F C F
1.04 47% 38% 36% -3 -2 0.91 45% 1.1 .52 22% .19 78% .15 1.08 43% 78% 18% -8 0 0.84 39% 0.9 .37 10% .45 71% .32
Jan
21		 Villanova F B F C- D 18% 32% 50% F D- B F F+ F A- D B A+ B- A+ A- A+ 49% 16% 35% D A+ B+ C+ B C B- C- C+
0.81 63% 21% 32% -6 -3 0.84 34% 0.5 .17 27% .31 64% .20 1.05 58% 13% 29% -6 +1 0.92 31% 1.0 .31 14% .28 73% .20
Jan
24		 Providence A A A+ C A+ 33% 25% 42% C- A+ C+ C C A- F C+ F+ C+ C A+ D- B+ 44% 19% 38% C+ B C A- B D D+ F D-
1.25 67% 64% 35% +10 -1 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 11% .19 73% .14 1.21 62% 22% 39% +1 +1 1.06 35% 1.0 .35 12% .37 86% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 DePaul A A+ D+ A+ A+ 44% 33% 23% C- A+ C+ F F+ B+ B+ A+ A+ B- F+ A+ D B- 27% 27% 46% A B D B C- B- A+ A+ A+
1.19 74% 36% 50% +12 -1 1.23 30% 0.5 .15 17% .37 94% .35 1.03 69% 15% 36% -1 -2 0.96 35% 1.1 .38 19% .10 40% .04
Jan
31		 Butler A B+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 29% 40% D- A+ F A+ D+ B B- A B+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ 43% 24% 33% A- A+ C- A+ A+ F+ B+ F D+
1.19 67% 50% 53% +17 -2 1.33 18% 1.3 .23 15% .26 79% .20 0.99 43% 25% 38% -8 0 0.86 37% 0.6 .23 11% .31 89% .28
Feb
4		 Creighton D+ F B- A+ D- 40% 21% 40% B D A F D+ C- A+ B A+ A+ D- F A+ B 25% 23% 52% A- B+ B A+ A A+ A A+ A+
1.03 26% 40% 42% -7 0 0.88 38% 0.6 .24 16% .53 73% .39 0.92 71% 62% 24% +1 -1 1.02 26% 0.7 .18 22% .17 60% .10
Feb
7		 Villanova B- F A+ F D+ 26% 36% 38% F D B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ C+ F B C- D 29% 19% 52% B D+ B+ B B+ D+ F A+ C-
1.06 38% 50% 26% -5 -3 0.86 36% 1.4 .49 20% .42 78% .33 1.16 86% 33% 36% +9 0 1.19 32% 0.9 .29 13% .47 50% .23
Feb
14		 Connecticut A+ C+ F+ A+ A+ 28% 15% 57% C+ A+ B+ B- B+ B+ A F+ B B- F F B+ C+ 23% 9% 68% B- C+ B D+ C+ C- F C- F
1.15 54% 29% 46% +8 0 1.17 31% 1.0 .31 17% .42 65% .28 1.21 90% 75% 30% +7 0 1.16 33% 1.2 .40 15% .45 72% .32
Feb
18		 Butler A+ A A+ F A+ 47% 18% 35% B A+ B- A+ A A+ A A+ A+ F D- F F F 41% 27% 31% A F B B B+ F D- F+ F
1.31 71% 78% 28% +10 +1 1.24 32% 1.2 .39 12% .32 79% .25 1.36 67% 64% 44% +15 -1 1.31 32% 1.0 .32 9% .42 77% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 0.6 2.2 4th
5th 2.5 4.4 0.3 7.1 5th
6th 3.1 15.0 1.9 20.0 6th
7th 0.2 16.2 7.6 0.1 24.1 7th
8th 4.2 14.4 0.3 18.9 8th
9th 0.1 12.3 2.2 14.7 9th
10th 1.8 6.5 0.1 8.4 10th
11th 4.2 0.4 4.6 11th
Total 6.1 23.6 36.0 25.5 7.9 0.9 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.9% 13.1% 3.1% 10.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 10.3%
9-11 7.9% 3.6% 2.0% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.6 1.6%
8-12 25.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 11.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 25.3 0.1%
7-13 36.0% 0.7% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 35.7
6-14 23.6% 0.4% 0.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.6
5-15 6.1% 0.3% 0.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 6.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 11.6 99.0 0.2%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 13.0% 11.0 13.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 17.6% 10.8 3.9 12.7 1.0
Lose Out 3.5%