Harvard
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#241
Expected Predictive Rating-9.2#316
Pace68.5#195
Improvement+0.6#149

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#275
First Shot-1.3#216
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#312
Layup/Dunks-1.9#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#68
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#132
Freethrows-3.0#326
Improvement-1.5#292

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#186
First Shot-3.5#290
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#27
Layups/Dunks-6.7#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#35
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#170
Freethrows+0.8#137
Improvement+2.0#35
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 3.5% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 7.4% 9.5% 2.7%
.500 or above in Conference 34.2% 37.2% 27.5%
Conference Champion 2.9% 3.4% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 18.1% 16.3% 22.1%
First Four1.5% 1.4% 1.7%
First Round2.6% 3.0% 1.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Hampshire (Away) - 69.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 73 - 11
Quad 47 - 69 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 242   Marist W 79-66 62%     1 - 0 +5.7 +9.7 -3.2
  Nov 08, 2024 305   @ Navy L 80-85 51%     1 - 1 -9.4 +0.9 -10.1
  Nov 10, 2024 236   @ American L 55-67 38%     1 - 2 -13.1 -13.5 -0.8
  Nov 13, 2024 152   @ Northeastern L 56-78 23%     1 - 3 -18.5 -13.9 -4.4
  Nov 17, 2024 85   @ Colorado L 66-88 11%     1 - 4 -12.7 -0.9 -12.0
  Nov 22, 2024 246   Colgate W 78-67 62%     2 - 4 +3.5 +5.6 -1.5
  Nov 27, 2024 171   Massachusetts L 54-62 48%     2 - 5 -11.7 -16.7 +4.4
  Nov 30, 2024 20   @ St. John's L 64-77 3%     2 - 6 +4.5 +0.3 +4.2
  Dec 04, 2024 326   @ Holy Cross L 67-68 58%     2 - 7 -7.3 -7.4 +0.1
  Dec 08, 2024 350   @ New Hampshire W 71-66 69%    
  Dec 21, 2024 119   Furman L 67-71 36%    
  Dec 29, 2024 274   @ Iona L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 11, 2025 108   Princeton L 70-75 32%    
  Jan 18, 2025 164   @ Brown L 65-72 27%    
  Jan 20, 2025 279   Penn W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 107   @ Yale L 68-79 15%    
  Jan 31, 2025 192   @ Columbia L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 01, 2025 149   @ Cornell L 72-80 24%    
  Feb 08, 2025 319   @ Dartmouth W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 14, 2025 149   Cornell L 75-77 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 192   Columbia W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 21, 2025 108   @ Princeton L 67-78 16%    
  Feb 22, 2025 279   @ Penn L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 28, 2025 164   Brown L 68-69 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 107   Yale L 71-76 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 319   Dartmouth W 74-66 75%    
Projected Record 9 - 17 6 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 5.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.9 7.1 3.6 0.3 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.4 4.1 8.8 4.2 0.4 17.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.8 9.7 4.6 0.4 21.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.6 7.3 3.0 0.3 17.7 7th
8th 0.4 1.8 3.7 3.3 1.2 0.1 10.4 8th
Total 0.4 1.9 5.2 9.8 14.6 17.1 16.7 13.9 10.2 5.6 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-2 93.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
11-3 75.9% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
10-4 36.7% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
9-5 7.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0
13-1 0.1% 20.4% 20.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-2 0.4% 26.6% 26.6% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-3 1.2% 18.5% 18.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
10-4 2.8% 16.6% 16.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.4
9-5 5.6% 11.9% 11.9% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 5.0
8-6 10.2% 9.3% 9.3% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 9.2
7-7 13.9% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6 13.2
6-8 16.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 16.6
5-9 17.1% 17.1
4-10 14.6% 14.6
3-11 9.8% 9.8
2-12 5.2% 5.2
1-13 1.9% 1.9
0-14 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%