Hawaii
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.9 #99
Expected Predictive Rating +3.4 #106
Pace 72.7 #76
Improvement -2.1 #275

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #192 C C+ D+ B- B
Defense #43 B+ B- C C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #47 1.20 #120 +4.0 #54
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #297 0.74 #206 -2.2 #289
Three Pointers 41% #180 0.97 #243 -1.0 #218
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #150 +0.8 #148
Freethrows 0.34 #66 73% #149 0.25 #74
Second Chance 30.7% #169 1.08 #95 0.33 #130
Turnovers 19.0% #304
Total Offense -0.8 #192

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #22 1.00 #26 -0.3 #187
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #128 0.74 #153 -0.4 #213
Three Pointers 33% #355 0.85 #17 +6.9 #3
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #29 +6.2 #28
Freethrows 0.30 #185 68% #18 0.21 #122
Second Chance 28.5% #99 0.99 #127 0.28 #96
Turnovers 16.6% #199
Total Defense +5.7 #43

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #49 0.6% #229
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.6% #184 -12.7% #13
Possession Length 16.8 #120 16.9 #122
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #224 0.16 #152
Improvement +2.7 #54 -4.9 #357

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.4% 40.8% 31.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 13.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 52.6% 59.3% 33.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round38.4% 40.8% 31.7%
Second Round3.8% 4.2% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Home) - 73.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 37 - 47 - 7
Quad 416 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 83 @Oregon L 59 - 60 32% -3  0 - 1 +9 -14 F C+ F +23 A+ B- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 308 East Texas A&M W 100 - 74 93% +17  1 - 1 +14 +14 A- A+ C -2 C C+ C
 Wed, Nov 12 365 Mississippi Valley W 88 - 56 99% +18  2 - 1 +5 +10 B+ B+ C+ -3 B- B- F
 Fri, Nov 14 328 Manhattan W 86 - 56 95% +15  3 - 1 +17 +1 D B- B- +15 B A+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 209 Utah Tech W 68 - 62 84% +6  4 - 1 +0 -8 D A+ F +8 A- A+ C+
 Thu, Nov 20 73 Arizona St. L 76 - 83 50% +2  4 - 2 -2 -1 C+ C+ D -0 C+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 281 North Dakota W 92 - 55 91% +14  5 - 2 +27 +4 B D+ D+ +20 A+ B+ A
 Thu, Dec 4 184 UC Davis W 75 - 69 81% +6  6 - 2 1 - 0 +2 -2 B C D +3 A B+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 217 Cal St. Fullerton W 69 - 59 85% +9  7 - 2 2 - 0 +4 -8 D- C- D+ +12 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 255 UTEP W 66 - 61 88% -2  8 - 2 -3 -3 D- F+ A+ +0 B+ F D
 Thu, Jan 1 291 @UC Riverside W 88 - 45 81% +21  9 - 2 3 - 0 +39 +23 A+ A+ D- +20 A+ B D+
 Sat, Jan 3 142 @UC San Diego L 73 - 83 53% -7  9 - 3 3 - 1 -6 +6 C B+ C -12 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 115 UC Irvine W 67 - 66 68% +2  10 - 3 4 - 1 +1 -2 B- D+ D +3 A D B+
 Thu, Jan 15 264 @Cal Poly W 86 - 66 77% +8  11 - 3 5 - 1 +17 +1 C+ D+ D- +14 B C A+
 Sat, Jan 17 135 @UC Santa Barbara L 62 - 77 52% -12  11 - 4 5 - 2 -11 -3 D C F+ -9 D D- C+
 Thu, Jan 22 320 Cal St. Bakersfield W 98 - 71 94% +18  12 - 4 6 - 2 +14 +10 D- A+ C+ +2 A- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 191 Cal St. Northridge W 89 - 68 82% +9  13 - 4 7 - 2 +16 +5 A- F+ F +9 B+ A C
 Thu, Jan 29 115 @UC Irvine L 76 - 87 OT 46% -2  13 - 5 7 - 3 -5 -2 C F C -1 C C B-
 Sat, Jan 31 251 @Long Beach St. W 89 - 82 75% +4  14 - 5 8 - 3 +5 +13 A+ C- C -8 A- F D+
 Sun, Feb 8 142 UC San Diego W 75 - 68 74%
 Thu, Feb 12 320 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80 - 68 86%
 Sat, Feb 14 191 @Cal St. Northridge W 81 - 77 64%
 Fri, Feb 20 264 Cal Poly W 89 - 75 90%
 Sun, Feb 22 135 UC Santa Barbara W 75 - 69 73%
 Thu, Feb 26 184 @UC Davis W 76 - 73 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 217 @Cal St. Fullerton W 80 - 75 67%
 Fri, Mar 6 291 UC Riverside W 79 - 64 92%
 Sun, Mar 8 251 Long Beach St. W 80 - 67 88%
Totals 21 - 7 15 - 5 +5 -1 C C+ D+ +6 B+ B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 4.7 15.7 20.9 11.0 52.6 1st
2nd 0.4 5.2 13.7 13.1 5.3 0.5 38.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 3.7 1.3 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 9.7 19.6 28.9 26.2 11.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 95.4% 11.0    9.2 1.8
16-4 79.8% 20.9    14.1 6.8 0.0
15-5 54.4% 15.7    7.2 7.7 0.8
14-6 23.9% 4.7    0.8 2.6 1.2 0.2
13-7 3.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 52.6% 52.6 31.3 19.0 2.1 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 11.5% 49.3% 49.3% 12.0 0.0 0.9 4.0 0.7 5.8
16-4 26.2% 46.5% 46.5% 12.6 0.1 5.4 6.1 0.6 0.0 14.0
15-5 28.9% 40.0% 40.0% 12.9 0.0 2.6 7.5 1.5 0.0 17.3
14-6 19.6% 31.8% 31.8% 13.1 0.9 3.7 1.5 0.1 13.4
13-7 9.7% 22.5% 22.5% 13.3 0.1 1.2 0.8 0.0 7.5
12-8 3.3% 15.0% 15.0% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.8
11-9 0.8% 10.7% 10.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
10-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 38.4% 38.4% 0.0% 12.7 61.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.7% 100.0% 12.0 0.2 16.3 70.5 13.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9%