Hawaii
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#109
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#112
Pace72.1#108
Improvement-0.4#198

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#241
First Shot-3.6#285
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#115
Layup/Dunks+2.3#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#320
Freethrows+2.3#60
Improvement+0.2#160

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#31
First Shot+5.4#38
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#94
Layups/Dunks-1.9#251
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#218
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#9
Freethrows+0.8#129
Improvement-0.6#226
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.1% 24.9% 17.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 99.2% 99.7% 97.8%
.500 or above in Conference 96.8% 98.3% 92.7%
Conference Champion 29.6% 34.1% 17.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round23.1% 24.9% 17.9%
Second Round2.7% 3.0% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Away) - 73.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 36 - 7
Quad 416 - 221 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 56 @Oregon L 59-60 21%     0 - 1 +11.2 -13.7 +25.0
  Sun, Nov 9 302 East Texas A&M W 100-74 91%     1 - 1 +15.0 +13.8 -1.3
  Wed, Nov 12 365 Mississippi Valley W 88-56 99%     2 - 1 +5.9 +9.4 -1.8
  Fri, Nov 14 313 Manhattan W 86-56 92%     3 - 1 +18.2 +1.5 +15.6
  Sat, Nov 15 251 Utah Tech W 68-62 87%     4 - 1 -2.2 -9.3 +7.1
  Thu, Nov 20 71 Arizona St. L 76-83 46%     4 - 2 -2.2 -1.8 +0.0
  Fri, Nov 28 333 North Dakota W 92-55 94%     5 - 2 +23.6 +4.6 +15.4
  Thu, Dec 4 176 UC Davis W 75-69 78%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +1.8 -1.5 +3.2
  Sat, Dec 6 242 Cal St. Fullerton W 69-59 86%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +2.3 -10.4 +12.4
  Sat, Dec 13 202 UTEP W 66-61 82%     8 - 2 -0.7 -1.6 +1.3
  Thu, Jan 1 272 @UC Riverside W 75-68 74%    
  Sat, Jan 3 83 @UC San Diego L 69-75 29%    
  Sun, Jan 11 131 UC Irvine W 70-65 68%    
  Thu, Jan 15 257 @Cal Poly W 82-76 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 150 @UC Santa Barbara W 71-70 50%    
  Fri, Jan 23 305 Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-63 92%    
  Sun, Jan 25 212 Cal St. Northridge W 81-71 82%    
  Thu, Jan 29 131 @UC Irvine L 67-68 47%    
  Sat, Jan 31 275 @Long Beach St. W 75-68 74%    
  Sun, Feb 8 83 UC San Diego L 72-73 50%    
  Thu, Feb 12 305 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-66 79%    
  Sat, Feb 14 212 @Cal St. Northridge W 78-74 65%    
  Fri, Feb 20 257 Cal Poly W 85-73 86%    
  Sun, Feb 22 150 UC Santa Barbara W 74-68 70%    
  Thu, Feb 26 176 @UC Davis W 72-70 57%    
  Sat, Feb 28 242 @Cal St. Fullerton W 80-75 69%    
  Fri, Mar 6 272 UC Riverside W 78-65 88%    
  Sun, Mar 8 275 Long Beach St. W 78-65 88%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.8 7.2 8.2 6.1 2.6 0.6 29.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.1 7.5 9.9 6.7 2.3 0.3 30.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 3.3 6.4 5.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 19.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.1 2.9 0.8 0.1 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.4 5.9 9.1 12.8 15.2 16.1 14.2 10.6 6.5 2.6 0.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.6    2.5 0.1
18-2 94.7% 6.1    5.4 0.7
17-3 77.8% 8.2    5.9 2.2 0.1
16-4 50.7% 7.2    3.9 2.8 0.5 0.0
15-5 23.5% 3.8    1.4 1.7 0.6 0.0
14-6 6.5% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.6% 29.6 20.0 8.0 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 55.9% 54.3% 1.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 3.5%
19-1 2.6% 49.6% 49.5% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.3 0.3%
18-2 6.5% 42.3% 42.3% 12.1 0.3 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.7
17-3 10.6% 37.6% 37.6% 12.5 0.1 2.1 1.7 0.1 6.6
16-4 14.2% 32.4% 32.4% 12.8 0.0 1.4 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.6
15-5 16.1% 26.3% 26.3% 13.0 0.0 0.9 2.5 0.7 0.0 11.8
14-6 15.2% 18.1% 18.1% 13.3 0.3 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 12.4
13-7 12.8% 13.9% 13.9% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 11.0
12-8 9.1% 10.2% 10.2% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 8.2
11-9 5.9% 4.9% 4.9% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.6
10-10 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.3
9-11 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
8-12 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
7-13 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.1% 23.1% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 7.3 10.1 3.8 0.5 0.0 76.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.5 3.0 4.0 8.9 12.9 62.4 8.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 6.0% 11.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%