IUPUI
Horizon
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.3#339
Expected Predictive Rating-19.7#354
Pace62.1#331
Improvement+0.0#188

Offense
Total Offense-9.0#352
First Shot-11.7#358
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#45
Layup/Dunks-6.8#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#122
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#259
Freethrows-2.9#330
Improvement+0.2#157

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#280
First Shot-2.5#255
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#236
Layups/Dunks+0.4#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#102
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#121
Freethrows-6.0#353
Improvement-0.2#208
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.8% 1.8% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 4.7% 9.4% 2.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 54.1% 37.9% 60.3%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 27.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 71 - 9
Quad 46 - 157 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 104   @ Butler L 47-56 4%     0 - 1 -1.6 -10.8 +7.4
  Nov 11, 2021 252   @ Evansville L 40-60 17%     0 - 2 -21.9 -27.0 +2.0
  Nov 15, 2021 324   Denver L 47-63 41%     0 - 3 -25.9 -26.9 -0.3
  Nov 16, 2021 317   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59-65 37%     0 - 4 -14.9 -19.5 +4.9
  Nov 17, 2021 296   @ Texas San Antonio L 57-60 23%     0 - 5 -7.5 -7.8 -0.3
  Dec 02, 2021 225   Detroit Mercy L 65-71 28%    
  Dec 04, 2021 125   Oakland L 57-69 12%    
  Dec 10, 2021 313   @ Tennessee St. L 63-70 26%    
  Dec 16, 2021 355   Chicago St. W 70-61 79%    
  Dec 21, 2021 138   Morehead St. L 56-67 14%    
  Dec 30, 2021 163   Cleveland St. L 57-66 20%    
  Jan 01, 2022 274   Purdue Fort Wayne L 66-69 38%    
  Jan 06, 2022 195   @ Northern Kentucky L 55-69 11%    
  Jan 08, 2022 205   @ Wright St. L 61-74 12%    
  Jan 10, 2022 250   Illinois-Chicago L 61-65 35%    
  Jan 13, 2022 300   @ Green Bay L 60-67 26%    
  Jan 15, 2022 244   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 58-69 17%    
  Jan 20, 2022 205   Wright St. L 64-71 26%    
  Jan 22, 2022 195   Northern Kentucky L 58-66 25%    
  Jan 27, 2022 125   @ Oakland L 54-72 6%    
  Jan 29, 2022 225   @ Detroit Mercy L 62-74 15%    
  Feb 03, 2022 280   Youngstown St. L 63-66 41%    
  Feb 05, 2022 287   Robert Morris L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 10, 2022 274   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 63-72 22%    
  Feb 12, 2022 163   @ Cleveland St. L 54-69 9%    
  Feb 14, 2022 250   @ Illinois-Chicago L 58-68 18%    
  Feb 17, 2022 287   @ Robert Morris L 63-71 24%    
  Feb 19, 2022 280   @ Youngstown St. L 60-69 23%    
  Feb 24, 2022 244   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 61-66 33%    
  Feb 26, 2022 300   Green Bay L 63-64 45%    
Projected Record 6 - 24 5 - 17





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.1 3.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.2 3.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.4 4.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.7 6.9 5.4 2.4 0.2 0.0 21.6 11th
12th 1.7 5.5 9.0 10.7 9.1 5.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 43.5 12th
Total 1.7 5.5 9.3 12.3 14.2 14.3 12.6 9.6 7.0 5.5 3.4 2.5 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-6 22.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 0.0% 0.0
18-4 0.0% 0.0
17-5 0.0% 0.0
16-6 0.1% 0.1
15-7 0.1% 0.0 0.1
14-8 0.3% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
13-9 0.7% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
12-10 1.0% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
11-11 2.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.4
10-12 3.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.4
9-13 5.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.4
8-14 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.0
7-15 9.6% 9.6
6-16 12.6% 12.6
5-17 14.3% 14.3
4-18 14.2% 14.2
3-19 12.3% 12.3
2-20 9.3% 9.3
1-21 5.5% 5.5
0-22 1.7% 1.7
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%