IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Lafayette
Patriot League
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.2	#308
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.9	#239
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-6.1	#339

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.1	#243

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.5%	13.6%	7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	17.3	15.2	15.6

.500 or above	32.3%	59.9%	30.0%
.500 or above in Conference	52.7%	70.5%	51.2%
Conference Champion	8.3%	16.6%	7.7%
Last Place in Conference	10.4%	4.1%	10.9%

First Four	3.9%	4.4%	3.9%
First Round	6.4%	13.1%	5.8%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Saint Joseph's (Away) - 7.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 8
Quad 4	13 - 10	14 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	111	@ Saint Joseph's	L	60-75	8%
Nov 08, 2025	36	@ Texas	L	56-81	1%
Nov 13, 2025	160	Cornell	L	72-77	33%
Nov 17, 2025	61	@ West Virginia	L	53-74	3%
Nov 21, 2025	340	@ Stonehill	W	65-64	51%
Nov 28, 2025	347	Le Moyne	W	75-68	72%
Nov 29, 2025	244	Ball St.	L	67-68	47%
Nov 30, 2025	211	Monmouth	L	67-69	42%
Dec 05, 2025	361	Mercyhurst	W	69-58	83%
Dec 08, 2025	278	@ Penn	L	67-72	34%
Dec 18, 2025	185	@ Charlotte	L	61-70	21%
Dec 20, 2025	83	@ Georgia Tech	L	60-78	6%
Dec 31, 2025	216	Colgate	L	67-69	44%
Jan 03, 2026	317	@ Loyola Maryland	L	65-67	42%
Jan 07, 2026	277	Boston University	W	63-62	54%
Jan 10, 2026	224	@ Navy	L	63-71	26%
Jan 14, 2026	287	@ Bucknell	L	65-69	36%
Jan 17, 2026	352	Holy Cross	W	70-63	73%
Jan 21, 2026	277	@ Boston University	L	60-65	34%
Jan 24, 2026	306	@ Lehigh	L	65-68	40%
Jan 26, 2026	287	Bucknell	W	68-66	56%
Jan 31, 2026	303	@ American	L	61-64	39%
Feb 04, 2026	224	Navy	L	66-68	45%
Feb 07, 2026	353	@ Army	W	68-67	55%
Feb 11, 2026	317	Loyola Maryland	W	68-64	62%
Feb 14, 2026	306	Lehigh	W	68-65	59%
Feb 18, 2026	352	@ Holy Cross	W	67-66	54%
Feb 21, 2026	303	American	W	64-61	59%
Feb 25, 2026	216	@ Colgate	L	64-72	26%
Feb 28, 2026	353	Army	W	71-64	73%
Projected Record						13 - 17	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Patriot League Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.7	1.6	2.3	2.0	1.1	0.5	0.1		8.3	1st
2nd										0.0	0.2	1.4	3.3	3.1	1.5	0.4	0.1				10.0	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	2.0	4.4	3.2	0.9	0.1	0.0					10.9	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.4	4.7	3.0	0.8	0.0							11.2	4th
5th								0.3	2.7	5.1	3.1	0.5	0.0								11.7	5th
6th						0.0	0.3	2.4	5.1	2.9	0.5	0.0									11.2	6th
7th					0.0	0.5	2.5	4.7	2.8	0.4	0.0										11.0	7th
8th				0.1	0.7	2.7	4.2	2.3	0.4	0.0											10.4	8th
9th		0.0	0.2	1.2	2.6	3.1	1.5	0.2	0.0												8.9	9th
10th	0.1	0.6	1.3	2.0	1.6	0.7	0.1	0.0													6.4	10th

Total	0.1	0.6	1.5	3.2	5.0	7.0	8.6	10.0	11.2	11.0	10.5	9.3	8.0	5.7	3.9	2.4	1.2	0.5	0.1			Total

Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.5		0.5	0.0
16-2	95.4%	1.1		1.0	0.1
15-3	82.9%	2.0		1.6	0.4	0.0
14-4	58.4%	2.3		1.3	0.8	0.2	0.0
13-5	28.6%	1.6		0.6	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0
12-6	8.7%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.7%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	8.3%	8.3		5.1	2.4	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		47.1%	47.1%		13.3												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
17-1	0.5%		45.8%	45.8%		13.6													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.3
16-2	1.2%		45.4%	45.4%		14.6													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.6
15-3	2.4%		31.2%	31.2%		16.6														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	1.7
14-4	3.9%		25.2%	25.2%		17.8														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	2.9
13-5	5.7%		19.2%	19.2%		18.2															0.0	0.4	0.8	4.6
12-6	8.0%		12.1%	12.1%		18.6															0.0	0.2	0.9	7.1
11-7	9.3%		10.1%	10.1%		18.3														0.0		0.2	0.9	8.4
10-8	10.5%		6.9%	6.9%		17.2															0.0	0.0	0.7	9.8
9-9	11.0%		5.6%	5.6%		17.0																0.0	0.7	10.4
8-10	11.2%		3.5%	3.5%		16.7																	0.4	10.8
7-11	10.0%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.1	9.9
6-12	8.6%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	8.5
5-13	7.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.0
4-14	5.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	5.0
3-15	3.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.2
2-16	1.5%																							1.5
1-17	0.6%																							0.6
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		7.5%	7.5%	0.0%	17.3												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.8	5.6	92.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%