Lafayette
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#231
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#287
Pace64.3#307
Improvement+2.4#42

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#290
First Shot-0.9#202
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#338
Layup/Dunks+0.6#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#123
Freethrows+1.1#118
Improvement+0.5#138

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#153
First Shot+2.7#97
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#314
Layups/Dunks-1.4#221
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#183
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#19
Freethrows-2.1#298
Improvement+1.9#45
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.0% 18.1% 13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 64.4% 69.7% 46.6%
.500 or above in Conference 77.0% 79.2% 69.4%
Conference Champion 23.3% 24.9% 17.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 3.2% 5.6%
First Four7.5% 7.4% 7.7%
First Round13.5% 14.5% 10.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercyhurst (Away) - 77.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 416 - 817 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 56   @ Villanova L 63-75 7%     0 - 1 +0.6 -4.0 +4.3
  Nov 09, 2024 143   @ La Salle L 60-81 23%     0 - 2 -17.0 -10.7 -6.1
  Nov 12, 2024 279   Penn W 65-63 70%     1 - 2 -7.4 -2.5 -4.5
  Nov 16, 2024 149   @ Cornell L 71-81 24%     1 - 3 -6.4 -0.4 -6.2
  Nov 20, 2024 91   @ Rhode Island L 72-86 12%     1 - 4 -5.1 +0.2 -4.9
  Nov 29, 2024 342   LIU Brooklyn W 75-56 84%     2 - 4 +4.5 -1.6 +6.7
  Nov 30, 2024 308   Niagara W 59-47 74%     3 - 4 +1.4 -15.4 +17.6
  Dec 01, 2024 322   Binghamton L 81-82 OT 78%     3 - 5 -13.0 -2.6 -10.3
  Dec 07, 2024 361   @ Mercyhurst W 66-58 77%    
  Dec 18, 2024 151   @ George Washington L 66-73 24%    
  Dec 21, 2024 309   @ Portland W 69-68 53%    
  Dec 29, 2024 336   Stonehill W 70-61 81%    
  Jan 02, 2025 268   Boston University W 67-62 68%    
  Jan 05, 2025 305   @ Navy W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 08, 2025 260   @ Bucknell L 64-65 45%    
  Jan 11, 2025 326   Holy Cross W 71-63 78%    
  Jan 15, 2025 282   @ Army L 65-66 49%    
  Jan 18, 2025 246   Colgate W 67-63 63%    
  Jan 22, 2025 335   @ Loyola Maryland W 66-63 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 251   @ Lehigh L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 29, 2025 236   American W 65-62 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 246   @ Colgate L 64-66 42%    
  Feb 05, 2025 335   Loyola Maryland W 69-60 80%    
  Feb 08, 2025 305   Navy W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 10, 2025 236   @ American L 62-65 40%    
  Feb 15, 2025 260   Bucknell W 67-62 67%    
  Feb 19, 2025 326   @ Holy Cross W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 251   Lehigh W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 25, 2025 282   Army W 68-62 69%    
  Mar 01, 2025 268   @ Boston University L 64-65 47%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.9 6.3 4.3 2.3 0.9 0.2 23.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.0 6.2 4.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.9 6.6 3.0 0.6 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 5.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 5.1 2.7 0.2 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.8 0.3 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.1 8.8 11.2 13.2 13.8 12.4 10.6 7.7 4.5 2.3 0.9 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9
16-2 99.6% 2.3    2.3 0.1
15-3 95.7% 4.3    3.9 0.5
14-4 81.3% 6.3    4.6 1.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 55.2% 5.9    2.8 2.4 0.6 0.1
12-6 23.3% 2.9    0.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 4.0% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.3% 23.3 15.4 5.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 51.2% 51.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.9% 47.5% 47.5% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.3% 39.4% 39.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.4
15-3 4.5% 38.1% 38.1% 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.5 2.8
14-4 7.7% 30.4% 30.4% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 5.4
13-5 10.6% 25.4% 25.4% 15.7 0.1 0.7 2.0 7.9
12-6 12.4% 22.5% 22.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.4 9.6
11-7 13.8% 16.1% 16.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.1 11.6
10-8 13.2% 12.8% 12.8% 16.0 0.1 1.6 11.5
9-9 11.2% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1 10.1
8-10 8.8% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.6 8.2
7-11 6.1% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.2 5.9
6-12 4.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 4.0
5-13 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 2.2
4-14 1.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 15.6 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.7 11.8 83.0 0.0%