Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.8 #323
Expected Predictive Rating -14.4 #342
Pace 68.4 #218
Improvement +2.5 #58

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #296 D+ C D+ C- C+
Defense #326 D+ B- D- F C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #142 1.02 #318 -1.9 #248
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #232 0.59 #337 -2.5 #296
Three Pointers 42% #156 1.02 #171 +0.9 #150
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #271 -3.5 #271
Freethrows 17.1 #196 72% #193 12.3 #188
Second Chance 25.3% #311 1.06 #154 0.27 #277
Turnovers 17.9% #253
Total Offense -4.9 #296

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #145 1.20 #226 -1.6 #234
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #92 0.78 #220 -1.5 #274
Three Pointers 37% #288 1.10 #291 +0.3 #178
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #262 -2.7 #265
Freethrows 15.2 #85 85% #365 12.8 #107
Second Chance 33.8% #295 1.14 #285 0.39 #314
Turnovers 13.0% #345
Total Defense -4.9 #326

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #128 -0.4% #127
Shot Type Make Effect -7.7% #294 5.6% #276
Possession Length 17.9 #247 16.7 #101
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #360 0.20 #273
Improvement +1.9 #53 +0.6 #144
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.0% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.3% 2.4% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 28.9% 43.1% 18.6%
Conference Champion 1.1% 2.1% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 22.3% 10.9% 30.6%
First Four3.1% 3.9% 2.6%
First Round1.5% 1.8% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Away) - 42.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 9
Quad 49 - 1310 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 193 @Saint Joseph's L 76-85 16%     -6.0   0 - 1 -8.0 +4.6 -12.5
  Sat, Nov 8 43 @Texas L 60-97 2%     -18.4   0 - 2 -21.7 -6.4 -15.9
  Thu, Nov 13 160 Cornell L 78-97 26%     -7.4   0 - 3 -22.1 -7.5 -13.3
  Mon, Nov 17 64 @West Virginia L 59-81 3%     -11.0   0 - 4 -10.3 -4.1 -7.3
  Fri, Nov 21 338 @Stonehill L 70-74 45%     -4.1   0 - 5 -12.4 -4.9 -7.4
  Fri, Nov 28 309 Le Moyne L 63-76 58%     -0.9   0 - 6 -24.7 -17.4 -7.5
  Sat, Nov 29 301 Ball St. W 55-37 55%     4.5   1 - 6 +6.9 -14.4 +23.7
  Sun, Nov 30 236 Monmouth L 74-88 40%     -12.7   1 - 7 -21.3 -2.9 -18.3
  Fri, Dec 5 318 Mercyhurst W 79-71 60%     2.4   2 - 7 -4.5 +9.5 -13.2
  Mon, Dec 8 220 @Penn L 72-74 19%     -5.7   2 - 8 -2.5 -3.7 +1.2
  Thu, Dec 18 191 @Charlotte L 67-81 16%     -10.7   2 - 9 -12.9 +5.7 -21.2
  Sat, Dec 20 115 @Georgia Tech L 81-95 7%     -6.5   2 - 10 -7.5 +11.6 -18.9
  Wed, Dec 31 194 Colgate L 77-85 33%     -1.3   2 - 11 0 - 1 -13.1 -2.7 -10.1
  Sat, Jan 3 334 @Loyola Maryland L 74-76 42%    
  Wed, Jan 7 279 Boston University L 72-73 49%    
  Sat, Jan 10 206 @Navy L 66-76 18%    
  Wed, Jan 14 311 @Bucknell L 69-73 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 317 Holy Cross W 73-70 60%    
  Wed, Jan 21 279 @Boston University L 69-75 28%    
  Sat, Jan 24 326 @Lehigh L 70-73 39%    
  Mon, Jan 26 311 Bucknell W 72-70 58%    
  Sat, Jan 31 255 @American L 70-78 25%    
  Wed, Feb 4 206 Navy L 69-73 36%    
  Sat, Feb 7 320 @Army L 71-74 38%    
  Wed, Feb 11 334 Loyola Maryland W 77-73 64%    
  Sat, Feb 14 326 Lehigh W 73-70 61%    
  Wed, Feb 18 317 @Holy Cross L 70-73 38%    
  Sun, Feb 22 255 American L 73-75 44%    
  Wed, Feb 25 194 @Colgate L 68-79 17%    
  Sat, Feb 28 320 Army W 74-71 59%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.6 3.6 1.2 0.1 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.7 5.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.4 6.2 2.1 0.2 12.2 6th
7th 0.2 3.1 7.1 3.3 0.3 14.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.6 4.3 0.4 14.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 3.2 6.2 4.1 0.5 0.0 14.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.9 4.6 2.5 0.5 0.0 14.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.6 8.0 11.5 14.7 15.7 14.0 11.8 7.9 5.0 2.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 83.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 52.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 40.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 12.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.4% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.0% 12.6% 12.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.8
12-6 2.9% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.3 2.6
11-7 5.0% 9.9% 9.9% 16.0 0.5 4.5
10-8 7.9% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.4 7.5
9-9 11.8% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.7 11.1
8-10 14.0% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.6 13.4
7-11 15.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 15.3
6-12 14.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 14.5
5-13 11.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.5
4-14 8.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.0
3-15 4.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.5
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.2 96.8 0.0%