Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.5#321
Expected Predictive Rating-13.8#342
Pace67.7#231
Improvement+2.5#46

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#300
First Shot-2.9#252
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#304
Layup/Dunks-2.2#263
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#268
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#117
Freethrows-1.1#252
Improvement+1.9#55

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#323
First Shot-2.5#258
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#321
Layups/Dunks-2.8#286
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#270
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#231
Freethrows+2.4#44
Improvement+0.6#135
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.9% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.1% 6.5% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 35.7% 53.6% 27.4%
Conference Champion 2.5% 5.7% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.8% 9.8% 22.9%
First Four3.1% 4.6% 2.5%
First Round1.6% 2.5% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Home) - 31.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 8
Quad 410 - 1310 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 188 @Saint Joseph's L 76-85 16%     0 - 1 -7.8 +5.8 -13.5
  Sat, Nov 8 41 @Texas L 60-97 2%     0 - 2 -21.8 -6.3 -16.0
  Thu, Nov 13 159 Cornell L 78-97 26%     0 - 3 -21.9 -6.9 -13.6
  Mon, Nov 17 62 @West Virginia L 59-81 4%     0 - 4 -10.5 -4.1 -7.4
  Fri, Nov 21 338 @Stonehill L 70-74 45%     0 - 5 -12.1 -4.7 -7.4
  Fri, Nov 28 312 Le Moyne L 63-76 59%     0 - 6 -24.8 -18.3 -6.7
  Sat, Nov 29 306 Ball St. W 55-37 57%     1 - 6 +6.8 -14.5 +23.7
  Sun, Nov 30 224 Monmouth L 74-88 40%     1 - 7 -20.9 -2.9 -17.9
  Fri, Dec 5 318 Mercyhurst W 79-71 61%     2 - 7 -4.3 +9.5 -13.0
  Mon, Dec 8 240 @Penn L 72-74 23%     2 - 8 -3.6 -4.1 +0.5
  Thu, Dec 18 183 @Charlotte L 67-81 16%     2 - 9 -12.7 +5.6 -20.9
  Sat, Dec 20 129 @Georgia Tech L 81-95 9%     2 - 10 -9.0 +11.5 -20.2
  Wed, Dec 31 181 Colgate L 70-75 32%    
  Sat, Jan 3 329 @Loyola Maryland L 73-76 40%    
  Wed, Jan 7 288 Boston University W 72-71 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 203 @Navy L 65-75 18%    
  Wed, Jan 14 308 @Bucknell L 69-73 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 326 Holy Cross W 73-70 62%    
  Wed, Jan 21 288 @Boston University L 69-75 29%    
  Sat, Jan 24 315 @Lehigh L 69-73 38%    
  Mon, Jan 26 308 Bucknell W 72-70 57%    
  Sat, Jan 31 268 @American L 70-77 27%    
  Wed, Feb 4 203 Navy L 68-72 37%    
  Sat, Feb 7 331 @Army L 71-73 42%    
  Wed, Feb 11 329 Loyola Maryland W 76-73 62%    
  Sat, Feb 14 315 Lehigh W 72-70 59%    
  Wed, Feb 18 326 @Holy Cross L 70-73 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 268 American L 73-74 47%    
  Wed, Feb 25 181 @Colgate L 67-78 16%    
  Sat, Feb 28 331 Army W 74-70 64%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.2 1.3 0.2 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.4 5.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.2 3.0 6.4 2.5 0.1 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.8 3.3 0.4 0.0 13.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.1 4.0 0.4 13.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7 5.3 3.7 0.6 0.0 13.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.1 3.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 11.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.7 6.6 10.1 13.2 14.6 13.9 12.7 9.2 6.6 4.0 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 91.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1
14-4 68.7% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 40.5% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 15.1% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 8.0% 8.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 16.1% 16.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 0.9% 13.4% 13.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.8
13-5 1.9% 13.0% 13.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 1.7
12-6 4.0% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5 3.5
11-7 6.6% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.5 6.1
10-8 9.2% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.5 8.7
9-9 12.7% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.6 12.1
8-10 13.9% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.4 13.6
7-11 14.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 14.5
6-12 13.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.1
5-13 10.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.0
4-14 6.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.6
3-15 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.7
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 96.7 0.0%