Mercyhurst
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.7#361
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#249
Pace61.5#346
Improvement-1.0#243

Offense
Total Offense-8.7#359
First Shot-6.5#337
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#297
Layup/Dunks-4.2#309
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#290
Freethrows-1.2#253
Improvement-0.1#196

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#344
First Shot-1.3#216
After Offensive Rebounds-4.6#360
Layups/Dunks-3.4#296
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#246
Freethrows+1.4#98
Improvement-0.9#260
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.1% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 4.1% 8.8% 2.7%
.500 or above in Conference 20.5% 26.5% 18.8%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.2% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 37.0% 30.5% 38.9%
First Four2.2% 3.0% 1.9%
First Round0.6% 0.9% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lafayette (Home) - 22.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 49 - 139 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 151   @ George Washington L 59-76 5%     0 - 1 -13.4 -8.1 -6.6
  Nov 06, 2024 340   @ Morgan St. W 78-73 27%     1 - 1 -3.2 +1.3 -4.5
  Nov 13, 2024 345   Canisius W 62-52 52%     2 - 1 -5.2 -11.0 +7.1
  Nov 16, 2024 192   @ Columbia L 63-77 7%     2 - 2 -12.4 -5.3 -8.6
  Nov 24, 2024 286   @ Air Force L 48-82 15%     2 - 3 -37.5 -17.7 -26.4
  Nov 27, 2024 109   @ California L 55-81 3%     2 - 4 -19.2 -12.2 -9.0
  Nov 30, 2024 320   @ Sacramento St. W 66-60 20%     3 - 4 +0.1 +0.6 +0.3
  Dec 01, 2024 64   @ San Francisco L 59-87 2%     3 - 5 -15.9 -2.9 -14.9
  Dec 07, 2024 231   Lafayette L 58-66 23%    
  Dec 15, 2024 110   @ Kent St. L 50-71 2%    
  Dec 18, 2024 322   @ Binghamton L 60-69 21%    
  Dec 22, 2024 45   @ West Virginia L 51-80 0.4%   
  Jan 03, 2025 336   Stonehill L 64-66 44%    
  Jan 05, 2025 240   Central Connecticut St. L 60-67 25%    
  Jan 10, 2025 339   @ St. Francis (PA) L 64-71 27%    
  Jan 12, 2025 334   @ Le Moyne L 63-71 24%    
  Jan 18, 2025 300   @ Wagner L 52-62 17%    
  Jan 20, 2025 342   @ LIU Brooklyn L 64-70 28%    
  Jan 24, 2025 300   Wagner L 55-59 34%    
  Jan 26, 2025 342   LIU Brooklyn L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 30, 2025 339   St. Francis (PA) L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 341   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 70-76 28%    
  Feb 06, 2025 359   @ Chicago St. L 66-69 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 334   Le Moyne L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 13, 2025 240   @ Central Connecticut St. L 57-70 11%    
  Feb 15, 2025 336   @ Stonehill L 61-69 25%    
  Feb 20, 2025 341   Fairleigh Dickinson L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 27, 2025 359   Chicago St. W 69-66 58%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 2.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 3.8 2.1 0.3 7.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.6 3.5 0.4 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 5.5 4.9 0.7 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 6.1 6.5 1.2 0.0 15.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.1 7.4 7.0 1.6 0.1 19.7 8th
9th 0.7 3.2 6.5 8.2 5.6 1.5 0.1 25.7 9th
Total 0.7 3.2 7.0 11.5 14.7 15.8 14.7 12.0 9.0 5.7 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-3 83.6% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
12-4 63.0% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
11-5 28.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 6.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.1% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.2% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-4 0.7% 15.2% 15.2% 16.0 0.1 0.6
11-5 1.6% 13.4% 13.4% 16.0 0.2 1.4
10-6 3.2% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.2 3.0
9-7 5.7% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.3 5.4
8-8 9.0% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.4 8.6
7-9 12.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.4 11.6
6-10 14.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 14.4
5-11 15.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 15.7
4-12 14.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.6
3-13 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.4
2-14 7.0% 7.0
1-15 3.2% 3.2
0-16 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.2 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%