Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.7 #308
Expected Predictive Rating -9.0 #308
Pace 62.5 #339
Improvement -0.3 #196

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #330 F C- C F F
Defense #252 C D+ B- C- F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #288 1.09 #260 -3.4 #296
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #13 0.85 #65 +6.2 #6
Three Pointers 33% #334 0.76 #364 -8.4 #360
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #332 -5.7 #331
Freethrows 11.7 #360 75% #105 8.8 #360
Second Chance 25.2% #320 1.17 #48 0.29 #239
Turnovers 16.4% #161
Total Offense -6.2 #330

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #8 1.13 #143 -4.6 #320
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #274 0.66 #63 +2.0 #52
Three Pointers 35% #326 1.05 #238 +2.4 #95
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #184 -0.3 #185
Freethrows 17.9 #211 76% #326 13.7 #110
Second Chance 33.7% #290 1.04 #180 0.35 #260
Turnovers 18.1% #88
Total Defense -2.5 #252

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.7% #349 2.2% #348
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.6% #297 -1.7% #153
Possession Length 21.1 #365 15.3 #4
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #358 0.23 #330
Improvement +0.5 #147 -0.7 #232

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 27.0% 33.2% 11.8%
.500 or above in Conference 79.5% 85.9% 63.6%
Conference Champion 2.7% 3.5% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 1.8% 7.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Home) - 70.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 412 - 812 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 66 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 4% -12  0 - 1 -11 -20 F F B +8 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 259 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 28% +7  1 - 1 +5 +1 C+ C F +5 B+ A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 12 336 @Canisius L 55 - 58 47% -3  1 - 2 -11 -12 F F F +1 F A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 363 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 84% +13  2 - 2 -5 +6 D A+ C- -11 A+ F A-
 Thu, Nov 20 94 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 6% -5  2 - 3 +4 +6 B+ C+ D -2 A- C C+
 Sun, Nov 23 170 @Marshall L 60 - 69 16% -5  2 - 4 -7 -6 F C C -2 D- A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 30 56 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 3% -18  2 - 5 -19 -22 F D+ F -2 B- F B
 Fri, Dec 5 326 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 44% -2  2 - 6 -15 +2 F A+ A -18 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 149 @Davidson L 47 - 80 13% -17  2 - 7 -29 -14 F F C -22 F D- D+
 Wed, Dec 17 61 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 4% -13  2 - 8 -2 -5 C C D- +4 B+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 359 Binghamton W 82 - 61 81% +19  3 - 8 +3 +1 C- D- B+ +2 C A+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 350 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 76% +0  3 - 9 0 - 1 -23 -8 F C F -16 F C+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 295 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 58% +8  4 - 9 1 - 1 +3 +2 D A B- +2 A+ D- D+
 Thu, Jan 8 217 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 21% -4  4 - 10 1 - 2 -2 -6 F C- C+ +3 A- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 319 @Wagner W 70 - 69 41% -1  5 - 10 2 - 2 -5 -1 C+ F A+ -5 C- C- C
 Sat, Jan 17 343 Stonehill W 67 - 61 71%
 Mon, Jan 19 260 Central Connecticut St. L 66 - 67 50%
 Fri, Jan 23 340 @New Haven L 61 - 62 47%
 Sun, Jan 25 349 Chicago St. W 73 - 66 76%
 Thu, Jan 29 340 New Haven W 64 - 59 69%
 Sat, Jan 31 349 @Chicago St. W 70 - 69 55%
 Thu, Feb 5 358 St. Francis (PA) W 73 - 64 80%
 Sat, Feb 7 350 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 69 - 68 55%
 Thu, Feb 12 295 @Le Moyne L 68 - 72 36%
 Thu, Feb 19 319 Wagner W 69 - 65 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 217 LIU Brooklyn L 68 - 71 40%
 Thu, Feb 26 260 @Central Connecticut St. L 63 - 69 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 343 @Stonehill L 64 - 65 50%
Totals 12 - 16 9 - 8 -9 -6 F C- C -2 C D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 2.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.1 4.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 6.8 7.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 19.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 7.2 8.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 19.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 5.6 7.9 2.4 0.1 0.0 16.6 5th
6th 0.2 3.5 6.7 2.1 0.1 12.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.7 1.9 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.0 1.8 0.1 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.7 6.0 10.8 15.6 18.7 18.2 13.5 8.3 3.9 1.1 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 85.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-2 62.3% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
13-3 29.7% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-4 6.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-5 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.2% 0.2
14-2 1.1% 1.1
13-3 3.9% 3.9
12-4 8.3% 8.3
11-5 13.5% 13.5
10-6 18.2% 18.2
9-7 18.7% 18.7
8-8 15.6% 15.6
7-9 10.8% 10.8
6-10 6.0% 6.0
5-11 2.7% 2.7
4-12 0.8% 0.8
3-13 0.3% 0.3
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2%