Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.2 302
Expected Predictive Rating -9.7 317
Pace 61.5 349
Improvement -0.5 211

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 336 D- D+ C+ F F
Defense C- 224 C D+ B- D D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 310 D 52% 304 -4.7 334
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 10 B- 42% 65 +6.6 3
Three Pointers 32% 339 F 27% 364 -8.0 358
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.1 355 D -4.1 315
1st FG Attempt D- 0.90 342
Second Chance D 25.9% 307 B- 1.08 97 D+ 0.28 250
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 127
Freethrows F 0.20 364 C- 71% 218 F 0.15 364
Total Offense D -6.6 336

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 14 C 58% 170 -4.3 322
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 281 B+ 33% 22 +2.2 30
Three Pointers 37% 306 C 34% 185 +2.2 89
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.0 340 C+ -1.0 144
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 178
Second Chance D 34.2% 317 C 1.02 155 D+ 0.35 271
Turnovers B- 18.3% 98
Freethrows D- 0.36 323 C 72% 161 D 0.26 315
Total Defense C- -1.5 224

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 20.8 365 15.8 10
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 350 0.20 270
Improvement -0.2 #196 -0.3 #214

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 4% 7% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 97% 100% 93%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Away) - 62.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 413 - 913 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 64 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 4% -12  0% 0 - 1 D- -12 F -22 F F B- A +10 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 6 276 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 33% +7  78% 1 - 1 C+ +4 C- -2 C C F B+ +7 B A B-
 Wed, Nov 12 345 @Canisius L 55 - 58 54% -3  16% 1 - 2 D- -12 F -15 F F+ D B- +3 F A- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 353 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 79% +13  93% 2 - 2 C- -3 B- +4 C- A+ D+ D -7 A- F A
 Thu, Nov 20 86 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 6% -5  4% 2 - 3 C+ +4 C+ +3 B- C+ C- C+ +1 B+ C C+
 Sun, Nov 23 165 @Marshall L 60 - 69 16% -5  4% 2 - 4 D+ -6 F+ -9 F D+ B- C+ +1 D A C-
 Sun, Nov 30 55 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 3% -18  0% 2 - 5 F -19 F -22 F C- F C -1 B- D- C+
 Fri, Dec 5 319 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 45% -2  19% 2 - 6 F+ -15 C +1 F A+ A F -17 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 110 @Davidson L 47 - 80 9% -17  0% 2 - 7 F -26 F -16 D- F C+ F -16 F D D+
 Wed, Dec 17 67 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 5% -13  0% 2 - 8 C- -3 F+ -9 D+ C+ D+ B+ +7 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 361 Binghamton W 82 - 61 85% +19  97% 3 - 8 C +1 C- -2 D+ D B- B- +4 C A+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 329 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 71% +0  45% 3 - 9 0 - 1 F -21 F+ -9 F C- D- F -13 F B- A
 Sun, Jan 4 301 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 61% +8  86% 4 - 9 1 - 1 C+ +3 C +1 D+ A C+ B- +4 A+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 205 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 21% -4  29% 4 - 10 1 - 2 C -2 D -6 D- C+ B- B- +4 B+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 332 @Wagner W 70 - 69 50% -1  30% 5 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -7 D -4 C F A+ C- -3 D+ D C-
 Sat, Jan 17 337 Stonehill L 57 - 62 OT 73% +2  65% 5 - 11 2 - 3 F -19 F -20 F F C- C+ +0 C D+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 291 Central Connecticut St. W 79 - 61 59% +14  96% 6 - 11 3 - 3 B- +7 B+ +7 A+ C- C- B- +2 A+ F C-
 Fri, Jan 23 334 @New Haven W 61 - 57 51% -0  37% 7 - 11 4 - 3 C- -4 D -4 C- F+ C+ C+ +1 D- D+ A-
 Sun, Jan 25 352 Chicago St. W 61 - 59 78% +3  85% 8 - 11 5 - 3 D- -14 F -10 D+ F+ D+ D+ -4 C+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 29 334 New Haven W 70 - 51 72% +13  88% 9 - 11 6 - 3 C+ +5 C +0 F A+ A+ B+ +7 A C+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 352 @Chicago St. L 74 - 78 58% -2  27% 9 - 12 6 - 4 D- -14 D+ -3 C+ F A F -11 F F C-
 Thu, Feb 5 355 St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 89 OT 81% +3  70% 10 - 12 7 - 4 D -8 B- +5 F A+ B- F -14 F C+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 329 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 52 - 55 49% -0  46% 10 - 13 7 - 5 D -11 F -12 F D A C +0 C- C- A
 Thu, Feb 12 301 @Le Moyne L 57 - 58 38% -1  37% 10 - 14 7 - 6 D+ -6 F -20 F F A+ A+ +13 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 71 - 68 62%
 Thu, Feb 19 332 Wagner W 69 - 63 71%
 Sat, Feb 21 205 LIU Brooklyn L 65 - 68 41%
 Thu, Feb 26 291 @Central Connecticut St. L 65 - 69 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 337 @Stonehill W 61 - 60 51%
Totals 13 - 16 10 - 8 -8 F -7 C- D F C -2 F C- F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D B- F D 34% 34% 32% F D- D B- D+ C+ F C- F C- C B+ C C+ 46% 17% 37% D- C D C D+ B- D- C D
0.99 52% 42% 27% -4 -2 0.90 26% 1.1 .28 16% .20 71% .15 1.11 58% 33% 34% -1 +1 1.02 34% 1.0 .35 18% .36 72% .15
Nov
3		 Northwestern F F A+ F F 30% 38% 32% F F F F F B- D- A- D+ A A+ B- A+ A+ 48% 17% 35% D- A+ F F F A F B F
0.70 31% 50% 6% -17 -3 0.62 21% 0.6 .12 16% .23 77% .18 1.04 41% 38% 19% -16 +1 0.72 39% 1.5 .61 18% .68 71% .49
Nov
6		 Loyola Chicago C- D A+ C C 40% 22% 38% C+ C C+ C- C F A D+ A B+ C+ A+ B+ A- 45% 6% 49% F+ B B+ A A B- F D- F
1.08 50% 60% 35% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.0 .31 18% .38 76% .29 0.96 55% 0% 29% -7 +2 0.92 27% 0.7 .19 21% .43 74% .32
Nov
12		 Canisius F F A+ F F 17% 33% 50% F F F C F+ D F B- F B- D F A+ F 47% 21% 32% D- F A B+ A- B- F A+ F
0.89 50% 63% 21% -3 -3 0.90 21% 1.0 .21 18% .16 75% .12 0.94 56% 63% 25% 0 +1 1.03 19% 0.8 .15 21% .54 58% .31
Nov
15		 Morgan St. B- B+ F A C+ 32% 28% 40% F C- B A+ A+ D+ B F D+ D D A+ A B+ 38% 43% 20% A- A- F D- F A F F F
1.27 69% 29% 40% +4 -1 1.08 41% 1.7 .69 16% .49 61% .30 1.06 60% 18% 25% -11 -3 0.75 51% 1.0 .51 24% .74 84% .62
Nov
20		 Miami (OH) C+ A- A+ C B+ 28% 28% 45% D- B- C+ C+ C+ C- D F+ D- C+ F+ A+ A A- 42% 18% 40% C- B+ D+ B C C+ F F+ F
1.08 69% 54% 33% +7 -2 1.13 31% 0.9 .28 18% .24 69% .17 1.16 74% 25% 28% +1 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 17% .57 84% .48
Nov
23		 Marshall F+ D+ C- F F 40% 34% 26% D F C- D+ D+ B- D F F C+ B+ A+ F D 25% 18% 57% D+ D B- A+ A C- D- F F+
0.95 55% 35% 15% -9 -2 0.80 32% 0.8 .27 16% .30 56% .17 1.09 55% 13% 48% +7 -1 1.14 30% 0.8 .24 17% .31 81% .25
Nov
30		 West Virginia F F D- C F 35% 37% 28% F F F+ A+ C- F D- F F C C F A+ B+ 54% 10% 35% F B- F C+ D- C+ F+ B- D
0.63 33% 25% 33% -14 -2 0.70 17% 1.3 .22 25% .18 13% .02 1.15 58% 60% 24% -3 +2 1.00 40% 1.1 .46 16% .39 65% .26
Dec
5		 Lafayette C D C- F F 29% 43% 28% F F B A+ A+ A F C+ F F B+ A F F 43% 9% 48% D- F F F F A+ D F F
1.11 53% 36% 25% -6 -4 0.83 37% 1.6 .61 9% .14 75% .10 1.24 47% 25% 57% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .40 24% .33 94% .31
Dec
13		 Davidson F A+ F F D 33% 38% 29% F+ D- F C F C+ B- F D- F F D- F F 62% 10% 29% F F F B+ D D+ D- B- D
0.80 79% 19% 25% -4 -3 0.88 9% 1.0 .09 17% .33 44% .14 1.36 69% 50% 58% +19 +3 1.45 42% 0.9 .38 15% .34 65% .22
Dec
17		 Syracuse F+ B F+ F C 34% 38% 28% F D+ C- B- C+ D+ F D F B+ B F A+ A 50% 18% 32% D A- F+ F F A+ B+ F C+
0.87 61% 25% 27% -7 -3 0.83 30% 1.2 .35 21% .18 70% .12 1.07 56% 56% 25% -2 +1 1.00 38% 1.4 .53 22% .29 75% .22
Dec
20		 Binghamton C- C A D+ C- 43% 31% 26% F+ D+ D- C+ D B- F A+ F B- D+ A+ B- C+ 55% 20% 25% F+ C A+ A+ A+ B F D+ F
1.18 60% 50% 33% +4 -1 1.09 26% 1.1 .29 10% .19 83% .16 0.88 59% 13% 30% -6 +1 0.93 11% 0.0 .00 23% .58 77% .45
Jan
2		 Fairleigh Dickinson F+ C+ A+ F F 35% 28% 37% D- F D+ C+ C- D- B A+ A+ F C F F F 59% 9% 32% F F F+ A+ B- A D- D- F+
1.05 63% 54% 18% -3 -1 0.93 26% 1.0 .26 19% .38 90% .35 1.16 58% 75% 50% +11 +3 1.30 36% 0.6 .23 23% .33 75% .24
Jan
4		 Le Moyne C F A+ C C- 38% 32% 30% F+ D+ B+ A- A C+ B- A+ B+ B- B C A+ A+ 46% 16% 38% D+ A+ F D+ F D+ B+ A+ A
1.16 44% 47% 36% -2 -1 0.96 38% 1.2 .47 14% .35 84% .29 0.94 52% 38% 16% -13 +1 0.78 35% 1.1 .38 19% .27 57% .15
Jan
8		 LIU Brooklyn D F A+ F D+ 45% 35% 20% F D- D A+ C+ B- F F F B- A- C C B+ 47% 33% 20% B B+ D+ A+ B+ D F D F
0.96 45% 53% 20% -5 -1 0.90 28% 1.3 .38 17% .14 57% .08 1.00 48% 40% 33% -4 -1 0.91 37% 0.7 .26 18% .39 68% .26
Jan
10		 Wagner D C- B+ B C 51% 22% 27% C- C F F F A+ D+ A C C- A+ F F C 53% 8% 39% F D+ C F+ D C- D+ A+ C+
1.08 56% 45% 38% +2 +1 1.08 4% 0.0 .00 8% .35 81% .28 1.07 35% 50% 47% -4 +3 1.00 31% 1.3 .38 19% .30 56% .17
Jan
17		 Stonehill F C F+ F F+ 41% 43% 16% F F C+ F F C- F+ F F C+ D+ A+ A- B- 53% 13% 33% F C B- F D+ C F A+ F
0.82 57% 29% 22% -7 -3 0.82 28% 0.3 .09 13% .21 54% .12 0.89 58% 0% 27% -9 +2 0.89 25% 1.1 .28 21% .44 54% .24
Jan
19		 Central Connecticut St. B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 33% 29% F A+ C+ D C- C- F A+ F B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% D- A+ F D F C- D+ D+ D+
1.28 53% 59% 60% +16 -2 1.31 33% 0.9 .30 13% .07 100% .07 0.99 53% 25% 21% -13 -1 0.75 38% 1.1 .40 16% .29 80% .23
Jan
23		 New Haven D D B+ B+ C 48% 24% 28% C- C- F A+ F+ C+ F A+ F C+ F F+ A+ D- 44% 23% 33% D+ D- D+ D+ D+ A- F C+ F
1.04 55% 45% 38% +2 0 1.07 12% 1.7 .20 15% .14 100% .14 0.97 71% 44% 23% +2 0 1.05 24% 1.0 .24 24% .38 71% .27
Jan
25		 Chicago St. F B+ C+ A B- 16% 34% 50% F D+ F C+ F+ D+ F D- F D+ A A+ F B- 25% 27% 48% D+ C+ C D C- F B+ B- B+
1.06 71% 40% 41% +8 -3 1.11 24% 1.1 .28 21% .15 71% .11 1.02 42% 15% 39% -6 -2 0.85 29% 1.0 .29 10% .21 73% .15
Jan
29		 New Haven C F C C- F 35% 35% 29% F F C- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ C+ B+ A- F A+ A 38% 31% 31% B A B D+ C+ F F A+ F
1.15 28% 39% 33% -11 -2 0.76 27% 1.9 .51 7% .26 87% .23 0.84 50% 54% 8% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.0 .18 15% .44 61% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Chicago St. D+ A+ B+ D B- 37% 25% 37% F+ C+ D+ F F A F D- F F B+ B+ F F 29% 29% 42% D+ F F F+ F C- F A+ F
1.11 79% 46% 32% +9 -1 1.18 32% 0.5 .15 15% .25 71% .18 1.17 46% 31% 47% +3 -2 1.04 36% 1.1 .39 15% .53 63% .34
Feb
5		 St. Francis (PA) B- F A+ F F 41% 22% 37% D+ F A+ A- A+ B- A+ A A+ F C D F F 44% 18% 39% F F D- A C+ C+ F C+ F
1.27 45% 58% 25% -6 0 0.91 49% 1.4 .67 17% .47 80% .37 1.15 56% 40% 45% +6 +1 1.16 32% 0.8 .24 19% .35 68% .24
Feb
7		 Fairleigh Dickinson F B- B F F 24% 39% 37% F F F+ C+ D A F C- F C F A+ A+ C- 38% 15% 46% D C- F A- C- A D F F
0.96 64% 44% 24% -2 -3 0.91 20% 1.0 .20 11% .15 71% .10 1.01 80% 17% 22% -3 +1 0.97 39% 0.7 .29 24% .32 85% .27
Feb
12		 Le Moyne F F+ C- F F 23% 33% 44% F F F B- F A+ F A F A+ F B A+ B- 51% 19% 30% D+ C+ C A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ B
0.83 46% 32% 20% -14 -3 0.68 19% 1.1 .21 9% .17 82% .14 0.84 71% 33% 14% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.4 .11 26% .35 56% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 8.3 3.8 13.6 2nd
3rd 1.1 13.6 9.2 0.2 24.2 3rd
4th 0.7 13.2 15.3 1.0 30.1 4th
5th 0.1 4.7 12.5 1.2 18.4 5th
6th 0.9 7.0 2.5 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 1.5 1.4 0.1 2.9 7th
8th 0.4 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 2.8 13.8 29.4 31.5 18.5 4.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 4.1% 4.1
11-5 18.5% 18.5
10-6 31.5% 31.5
9-7 29.4% 29.4
8-8 13.8% 13.8
7-9 2.8% 2.8
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.1%
Lose Out 2.8%