Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.2 #301
Expected Predictive Rating -8.7 #300
Pace 61.7 #345
Improvement -0.3 #194

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #329 D D+ C F F
Defense #247 C D+ C+ D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #301 1.07 #286 -4.0 #312
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% #10 0.84 #67 +6.6 #3
Three Pointers 32% #345 0.86 #346 -7.4 #356
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #322 -4.8 #322
Freethrows 0.21 #364 71% #234 0.15 #364
Second Chance 25.6% #314 1.07 #117 0.27 #266
Turnovers 16.5% #149
Total Offense -6.2 #329

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #17 1.12 #130 -3.6 #301
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #287 0.67 #43 +2.0 #44
Three Pointers 37% #297 1.02 #189 +2.2 #100
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #161 +0.6 #160
Freethrows 0.37 #328 72% #182 0.27 #329
Second Chance 33.7% #301 1.07 #246 0.36 #294
Turnovers 17.9% #124
Total Defense -2.0 #247

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.1% #354 1.9% #338
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.6% #279 -2.9% #120
Possession Length 20.7 #365 15.6 #7
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #355 0.21 #294
Improvement +0.6 #143 -1.0 #244

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 25.8% 30.2% 7.5%
.500 or above in Conference 94.3% 97.4% 81.5%
Conference Champion 1.6% 1.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 80.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 413 - 813 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 63 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 4% -12  0 - 1 -11 -19 F F C+ +7 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 6 279 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 33% +7  1 - 1 +4 +0 C+ C F +4 B A B-
 Wed, Nov 12 343 @Canisius L 55 - 58 52% -3  1 - 2 -12 -13 F F+ D +1 F+ A- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 354 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 79% +13  2 - 2 -3 +7 C- A+ C -10 B+ F B+
 Thu, Nov 20 90 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 6% -5  2 - 3 +4 +5 B- C C -1 B+ C C+
 Sun, Nov 23 153 @Marshall L 60 - 69 15% -5  2 - 4 -6 -5 F C- C+ -2 D A C-
 Sun, Nov 30 57 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 4% -18  2 - 5 -20 -20 F C- F -4 B- F+ C
 Fri, Dec 5 309 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 41% -2  2 - 6 -14 +3 F A+ A+ -18 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 115 @Davidson L 47 - 80 10% -17  2 - 7 -27 -13 D F C+ -20 F D D
 Wed, Dec 17 68 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 5% -13  2 - 8 -3 -7 D+ C+ C- +4 B+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 361 Binghamton W 82 - 61 85% +19  3 - 8 +2 +0 D+ D B +1 C A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 2 344 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 73% +0  3 - 9 0 - 1 -22 -7 F C D- -15 F C+ A-
 Sun, Jan 4 294 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 60% +8  4 - 9 1 - 1 +3 +3 D+ A- B- +1 A+ F+ D+
 Thu, Jan 8 195 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 20% -4  4 - 10 1 - 2 -1 -4 D- C B- +2 B+ A- D
 Sat, Jan 10 332 @Wagner W 70 - 69 47% -1  5 - 10 2 - 2 -7 -2 C F A+ -5 C- D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 329 Stonehill L 57 - 62 OT 69% +2  5 - 11 2 - 3 -18 -16 F F D+ -2 C D+ C-
 Mon, Jan 19 298 Central Connecticut St. W 79 - 61 61% +14  6 - 11 3 - 3 +7 +11 A+ C C -1 A+ F C-
 Fri, Jan 23 334 @New Haven W 61 - 57 49% -0  7 - 11 4 - 3 -4 -2 C F C+ -1 D D+ B+
 Sun, Jan 25 355 Chicago St. W 61 - 59 81% +3  8 - 11 5 - 3 -15 -7 C- F+ D+ -7 C+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 29 334 New Haven W 70 - 51 71% +13  9 - 11 6 - 3 +5 +3 F A+ A+ +5 A C+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 355 @Chicago St. L 74 - 78 62% -2  9 - 12 6 - 4 -15 -0 C+ F A- -15 F F D+
 Thu, Feb 5 357 St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 65 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 344 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 67 - 66 51%
 Thu, Feb 12 294 @Le Moyne L 67 - 70 37%
 Thu, Feb 19 332 Wagner W 69 - 64 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 195 LIU Brooklyn L 67 - 70 38%
 Thu, Feb 26 298 @Central Connecticut St. L 65 - 68 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 329 @Stonehill L 61 - 62 47%
Totals 13 - 15 10 - 7 -8 -6 D D+ C -2 C D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 2.4 8.9 5.4 0.8 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 11.5 7.5 0.6 21.4 3rd
4th 0.7 9.2 10.6 1.0 0.0 21.5 4th
5th 0.2 5.1 12.3 2.4 0.0 20.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 7.3 3.0 0.1 11.9 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 2.0 0.1 4.8 7th
8th 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.7 5.0 15.2 26.4 26.9 17.6 6.8 1.4 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 42.0% 0.6    0.2 0.4
12-4 12.3% 0.8    0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-5 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 1.4% 1.4
12-4 6.8% 6.8
11-5 17.6% 17.6
10-6 26.9% 26.9
9-7 26.4% 26.4
8-8 15.2% 15.2
7-9 5.0% 5.0
6-10 0.7% 0.7
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4%
Lose Out 0.7%