Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.2#317
Expected Predictive Rating-9.2#310
Pace62.6#343
Improvement-1.5#279

Offense
Total Offense-6.1#332
First Shot-5.7#337
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#203
Layup/Dunks-0.8#211
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#341
Freethrows-4.8#360
Improvement+0.6#119

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#277
First Shot-1.8#230
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#277
Layups/Dunks-3.9#307
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#28
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#112
Freethrows-1.9#301
Improvement-2.1#323
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 19.4% 22.6% 7.2%
.500 or above in Conference 63.7% 69.8% 40.8%
Conference Champion 6.3% 7.5% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.7% 3.5% 14.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Home) - 79.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 411 - 811 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 61 @Northwestern L 47-70 4%     0 - 1 -11.0 -19.2 +7.4
  Thu, Nov 6 274 @Loyola Chicago W 73-65 28%     1 - 1 +5.0 -0.9 +6.2
  Wed, Nov 12 341 @Canisius L 55-58 46%     1 - 2 -11.2 -11.5 -0.1
  Sat, Nov 15 360 Morgan St. W 86-72 80%     2 - 2 -4.1 +6.2 -9.8
  Thu, Nov 20 103 @Miami (OH) L 71-76 7%     2 - 3 +2.5 +4.8 -2.6
  Sun, Nov 23 160 @Marshall L 60-69 13%     2 - 4 -6.1 -4.7 -2.4
  Sun, Nov 30 65 @West Virginia L 38-70 4%     2 - 5 -20.6 -22.1 -3.4
  Fri, Dec 5 320 @Lafayette L 71-79 40%     2 - 6 -14.5 +2.0 -17.3
  Sat, Dec 13 127 @Davidson L 47-80 10%     2 - 7 -28.2 -14.3 -20.1
  Wed, Dec 17 77 @Syracuse L 62-76 5%     2 - 8 -3.6 -6.8 +3.4
  Sat, Dec 20 363 Binghamton W 82-61 82%     3 - 8 +2.2 -0.1 +2.4
  Fri, Jan 2 357 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-66 79%    
  Sun, Jan 4 314 Le Moyne W 74-71 60%    
  Thu, Jan 8 203 @LIU Brooklyn L 66-75 20%    
  Sat, Jan 10 293 @Wagner L 65-70 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 336 Stonehill W 67-62 67%    
  Mon, Jan 19 277 Central Connecticut St. W 66-65 50%    
  Fri, Jan 23 334 @New Haven L 63-64 44%    
  Sun, Jan 25 335 Chicago St. W 72-67 66%    
  Thu, Jan 29 334 New Haven W 66-61 66%    
  Sat, Jan 31 335 @Chicago St. L 69-70 45%    
  Thu, Feb 5 361 St. Francis (PA) W 73-64 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 357 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 72-69 59%    
  Thu, Feb 19 293 Wagner W 68-67 54%    
  Sat, Feb 21 203 LIU Brooklyn L 69-72 38%    
  Thu, Feb 26 277 @Central Connecticut St. L 62-68 30%    
  Sat, Feb 28 336 @Stonehill L 64-65 45%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 6.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 4.1 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.5 3.8 0.7 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 6.8 4.9 0.7 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 6.4 5.6 0.9 0.0 14.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.1 5.8 1.2 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.9 5.5 1.6 0.1 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.3 1.5 0.1 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.6 1.0 0.1 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.7 6.5 10.3 13.5 15.5 15.6 13.2 9.5 5.7 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 98.7% 0.3    0.2 0.0
14-2 90.2% 0.9    0.8 0.1 0.0
13-3 72.9% 2.1    1.3 0.8 0.1
12-4 36.3% 2.1    0.7 1.0 0.3 0.1
11-5 8.9% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 3.1 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.3% 0.3
14-2 1.0% 1.0
13-3 2.9% 2.9
12-4 5.7% 5.7
11-5 9.5% 9.5
10-6 13.2% 13.2
9-7 15.6% 15.6
8-8 15.5% 15.5
7-9 13.5% 13.5
6-10 10.3% 10.3
5-11 6.5% 6.5
4-12 3.7% 3.7
3-13 1.6% 1.6
2-14 0.5% 0.5
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%