Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#319
Expected Predictive Rating-7.1#271
Pace62.6#344
Improvement+0.3#145

Offense
Total Offense-5.8#326
First Shot-4.7#309
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#239
Layup/Dunks-2.0#251
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#9
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#336
Freethrows-3.1#332
Improvement+1.8#39

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#261
First Shot+0.4#152
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#335
Layups/Dunks+0.1#176
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#66
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#71
Freethrows-4.7#358
Improvement-1.6#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 32.8% 64.7% 31.7%
.500 or above in Conference 67.8% 83.8% 67.2%
Conference Champion 8.3% 14.8% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.7% 2.3% 5.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Away) - 3.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 411 - 812 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 55 @Northwestern L 47-70 4%     0 - 1 -10.3 -19.5 +8.4
  Thu, Nov 6 262 @Loyola Chicago W 73-65 29%     1 - 1 +5.4 +1.0 +4.7
  Wed, Nov 12 346 @Canisius L 55-58 50%     1 - 2 -11.6 -14.3 +2.3
  Sat, Nov 15 360 Morgan St. W 86-72 79%     2 - 2 -3.1 +7.3 -9.8
  Thu, Nov 20 122 @Miami (OH) L 71-76 10%     2 - 3 +0.8 +5.1 -4.6
  Sun, Nov 23 181 @Marshall L 60-69 18%     2 - 4 -7.6 -5.1 -3.5
  Sun, Nov 30 70 @West Virginia L 54-73 3%    
  Fri, Dec 5 338 @Lafayette L 66-67 48%    
  Sat, Dec 13 132 @Davidson L 60-73 11%    
  Wed, Dec 17 64 @Syracuse L 58-78 3%    
  Sat, Dec 20 352 Binghamton W 69-62 75%    
  Fri, Jan 2 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-66 80%    
  Sun, Jan 4 328 Le Moyne W 73-69 64%    
  Thu, Jan 8 233 @LIU Brooklyn L 65-72 25%    
  Sat, Jan 10 292 @Wagner L 64-68 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 336 Stonehill W 68-63 67%    
  Mon, Jan 19 244 Central Connecticut St. L 64-65 47%    
  Fri, Jan 23 344 @New Haven W 64-63 50%    
  Sun, Jan 25 345 Chicago St. W 73-67 71%    
  Thu, Jan 29 344 New Haven W 66-60 70%    
  Sat, Jan 31 345 @Chicago St. W 70-69 50%    
  Thu, Feb 5 358 St. Francis (PA) W 72-64 77%    
  Sat, Feb 7 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 72-69 60%    
  Thu, Feb 19 292 Wagner W 67-65 57%    
  Sat, Feb 21 233 LIU Brooklyn L 68-69 45%    
  Thu, Feb 26 244 @Central Connecticut St. L 61-68 28%    
  Sat, Feb 28 336 @Stonehill L 65-66 47%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.6 1.6 0.7 0.1 8.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 4.6 4.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 6.0 4.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 6.4 4.7 0.9 0.0 14.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 6.0 4.8 0.9 0.0 13.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.0 5.0 0.9 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.4 1.0 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.5 3.5 1.0 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.0 0.9 0.1 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.3 5.6 9.0 12.0 14.0 14.4 13.5 10.9 7.9 4.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 96.8% 0.7    0.6 0.1
14-2 84.4% 1.6    1.2 0.3 0.0
13-3 58.8% 2.6    1.5 1.0 0.1 0.0
12-4 30.9% 2.5    0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1
11-5 7.6% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 4.3 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 0.1
15-1 0.7% 0.7
14-2 1.9% 1.9
13-3 4.4% 4.4
12-4 7.9% 7.9
11-5 10.9% 10.9
10-6 13.5% 13.5
9-7 14.4% 14.4
8-8 14.0% 14.0
7-9 12.0% 12.0
6-10 9.0% 9.0
5-11 5.6% 5.6
4-12 3.3% 3.3
3-13 1.5% 1.5
2-14 0.6% 0.6
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%