Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.3 303
Expected Predictive Rating -9.2 309
Pace 61.3 351
Improvement -0.5 208

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #325 D- C- C+ F F
Defense C- #250 C D+ C+ D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 305 53% 304 -4.4 326
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 9 42% 59 +6.7 3
Three Pointers 32% 342 27% 363 -7.8 357
1st FG Attempt 0.91 332 -5.6 332
Second Chance 26.3% 298 1.08 95 0.28 241
Turnovers 16.3% 143
Freethrows 0.21 364 71% 221 0.15 364
Total Offense -6.0 325

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 17 57% 158 -4.0 318
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 290 33% 31 +2.2 32
Three Pointers 37% 292 35% 212 +1.7 109
1st FG Attempt 1.02 184 -0.1 183
Second Chance 34.4% 318 1.04 199 0.36 294
Turnovers 18.2% 104
Freethrows 0.37 328 72% 199 0.26 326
Total Defense -2.3 250

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -2.0 354 +1.0 343
Shot Type Accuracy -3.6 307 -0.8 148
Possession Length 20.8 365 15.8 10
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 352 0.20 272
Improvement +1.1 #123 -1.6 #283

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 15.9% 32.6% 5.6%
.500 or above in Conference 95.6% 100.0% 92.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Le Moyne (Away) - 38.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 412 - 812 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 65 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 4% -12  0% 0 - 1 D- -12 F -22 F F B- A +10 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 6 276 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 33% +7  78% 1 - 1 C+ +4 C- -2 C+ C F B+ +7 B A B-
 Wed, Nov 12 346 @Canisius L 55 - 58 54% -3  16% 1 - 2 D- -12 F -15 F F+ D B- +3 F A- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 352 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 79% +13  93% 2 - 2 C- -3 B- +4 C- A+ D+ D -7 A- F A
 Thu, Nov 20 87 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 6% -5  4% 2 - 3 C+ +4 C+ +3 B- C+ C- C+ +1 B+ C C+
 Sun, Nov 23 162 @Marshall L 60 - 69 15% -5  4% 2 - 4 D+ -6 F+ -8 F D+ B- C+ +1 D- A C-
 Sun, Nov 30 55 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 3% -18  0% 2 - 5 F -19 F -22 F C- F C -1 B- D- C+
 Fri, Dec 5 314 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 42% -2  19% 2 - 6 D- -14 C +1 F A+ A F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 110 @Davidson L 47 - 80 9% -17  0% 2 - 7 F -26 F -16 D- F C+ F -16 F D+ D+
 Wed, Dec 17 69 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 5% -13  0% 2 - 8 C- -3 F+ -9 D+ C+ D+ B+ +7 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 361 Binghamton W 82 - 61 85% +19  97% 3 - 8 C +1 D+ -2 D+ D B- B- +4 C A+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 329 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 70% +0  45% 3 - 9 0 - 1 F -21 F+ -9 F C- D- F -12 F B- A
 Sun, Jan 4 302 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 61% +8  86% 4 - 9 1 - 1 C+ +3 C +0 D+ A- C+ B +4 A+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 209 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 21% -4  29% 4 - 10 1 - 2 C- -2 D- -6 D- C+ B- B +4 B+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 331 @Wagner W 70 - 69 49% -1  30% 5 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -7 D -5 C- F A+ C- -2 D+ D+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 330 Stonehill L 57 - 62 OT 71% +2  65% 5 - 11 2 - 3 F -19 F -19 F F D+ C +0 C D+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 295 Central Connecticut St. W 79 - 61 59% +14  96% 6 - 11 3 - 3 B- +7 B+ +8 A+ C C- C+ +2 A+ F C-
 Fri, Jan 23 334 @New Haven W 61 - 57 50% -0  37% 7 - 11 4 - 3 C- -4 D+ -4 C F+ C+ C +0 D D A-
 Sun, Jan 25 353 Chicago St. W 61 - 59 79% +3  85% 8 - 11 5 - 3 F+ -15 F -10 C- F D+ D+ -5 C+ D+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 334 New Haven W 70 - 51 72% +13  88% 9 - 11 6 - 3 C+ +5 C +1 F A+ A+ B+ +7 A C+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 353 @Chicago St. L 74 - 78 60% -2  27% 9 - 12 6 - 4 F+ -15 D+ -3 C+ F A F -12 F F C-
 Thu, Feb 5 356 St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 89 OT 81% +3  70% 10 - 12 7 - 4 D -8 B- +4 F A+ B- F -13 F C+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 329 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 52 - 55 48% -0  46% 10 - 13 7 - 5 D -11 F -12 F D A C+ +0 C- C- A
 Thu, Feb 12 302 @Le Moyne L 68 - 71 38%
 Thu, Feb 19 331 Wagner W 70 - 64 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 209 LIU Brooklyn L 66 - 69 40%
 Thu, Feb 26 295 @Central Connecticut St. L 65 - 69 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 330 @Stonehill L 61 - 62 49%
Totals 12 - 16 9 - 8 -8 D -6 D- C- C+ C- -2 C D+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D B F D 34% 34% 32% F D- D B- C- C+ F C- F C- C B+ C- C+ 46% 17% 37% D- C D C D+ C+ D- C D-
1.00 53% 42% 27% -4 -2 0.91 26% 1.1 .28 16% .21 71% .15 1.12 57% 33% 35% -1 +1 1.02 34% 1.0 .36 18% .37 72% .15
Nov
3		 Northwestern F F A+ F F 30% 38% 32% F F F F F B- D- A- D+ A A+ B- A+ A+ 48% 17% 35% F+ A+ F F F A F B F
0.70 31% 50% 6% -17 -3 0.62 21% 0.6 .12 16% .23 77% .18 1.04 41% 38% 19% -16 +1 0.72 39% 1.5 .61 18% .68 71% .49
Nov
6		 Loyola Chicago C- D A+ C C 40% 22% 38% C+ C+ C+ C- C F A D+ A- B+ C+ A+ B+ A- 45% 6% 49% F+ B B+ A+ A B- F D- F
1.08 50% 60% 35% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.0 .31 18% .38 76% .29 0.96 55% 0% 29% -7 +2 0.92 27% 0.7 .19 21% .43 74% .32
Nov
12		 Canisius F F A+ F F 17% 33% 50% F F F C F+ D F B- F B- D F A+ F 47% 21% 32% D- F A B+ A- B- F A+ F
0.89 50% 63% 21% -3 -3 0.90 21% 1.0 .21 18% .16 75% .12 0.94 56% 63% 25% 0 +1 1.03 19% 0.8 .15 21% .54 58% .31
Nov
15		 Morgan St. B- B+ F A C+ 32% 28% 40% F C- B A+ A+ D+ B F D+ D D A+ A B+ 38% 43% 20% A- A- F D- F A F F F
1.27 69% 29% 40% +4 -1 1.08 41% 1.7 .69 16% .49 61% .30 1.06 60% 18% 25% -11 -3 0.75 51% 1.0 .51 24% .74 84% .62
Nov
20		 Miami (OH) C+ A- A+ C B+ 28% 28% 45% D- B- C+ C+ C+ C- D F+ D- C+ F+ A+ A A- 42% 18% 40% C- B+ D+ B C C+ F F+ F
1.08 69% 54% 33% +7 -2 1.13 31% 0.9 .28 18% .24 69% .17 1.16 74% 25% 28% +1 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 17% .57 84% .48
Nov
23		 Marshall F+ D+ C- F F 40% 34% 26% D F C- D+ D+ B- D- F F C+ B+ A+ F D- 25% 18% 57% D+ D- B- A+ A C- D- F F+
0.95 55% 35% 15% -9 -2 0.80 32% 0.8 .27 16% .30 56% .17 1.09 55% 13% 48% +7 -1 1.14 30% 0.8 .24 17% .31 81% .25
Nov
30		 West Virginia F F D- C F 35% 37% 28% F F F+ A+ C- F D- F F C C F A+ B+ 54% 10% 35% F B- F C+ D- C+ F+ B- D
0.63 33% 25% 33% -14 -2 0.70 17% 1.3 .22 25% .18 13% .02 1.15 58% 60% 24% -3 +2 1.00 40% 1.1 .46 16% .39 65% .26
Dec
5		 Lafayette C D C- F F 29% 43% 28% F F B A+ A+ A F C+ F F B+ A- F F 43% 9% 48% D- F F F F A+ D F F
1.11 53% 36% 25% -6 -4 0.83 37% 1.6 .61 9% .14 75% .10 1.24 47% 25% 57% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .40 24% .33 94% .31
Dec
13		 Davidson F A+ F F D 33% 38% 29% F+ D- F C F C+ B- F D- F F D- F F 62% 10% 29% F F F B+ D+ D+ D- B- D
0.80 79% 19% 25% -4 -3 0.88 9% 1.0 .09 17% .33 44% .14 1.36 69% 50% 58% +19 +3 1.45 42% 0.9 .38 15% .34 65% .22
Dec
17		 Syracuse F+ B F+ F C 34% 38% 28% F D+ C B C+ D+ F D F B+ B F A+ A 50% 18% 32% D A- F+ F F A+ B+ F C
0.87 61% 25% 27% -7 -3 0.83 30% 1.2 .35 21% .18 70% .12 1.07 56% 56% 25% -2 +1 1.00 38% 1.4 .53 22% .29 75% .22
Dec
20		 Binghamton D+ C+ A D+ C- 43% 31% 26% F+ D+ D- C D B- F A+ F B- D+ A+ B- C+ 55% 20% 25% F+ C A+ A+ A+ B F D+ F
1.18 60% 50% 33% +4 -1 1.09 26% 1.1 .29 10% .19 83% .16 0.88 59% 13% 30% -6 +1 0.93 11% 0.0 .00 23% .58 77% .45
Jan
2		 Fairleigh Dickinson F+ C+ A+ F F 35% 28% 37% D- F C- C+ C- D- B A+ A+ F C F F F 59% 9% 32% F F F+ A B- A D- D- F+
1.05 63% 54% 18% -3 -1 0.93 26% 1.0 .26 19% .38 90% .35 1.16 58% 75% 50% +11 +3 1.30 36% 0.6 .23 23% .33 75% .24
Jan
4		 Le Moyne C F A+ C C- 38% 32% 30% F+ D+ B+ A- A- C+ C+ A+ B+ B B C A+ A+ 46% 16% 38% D+ A+ F C- F C- A- A+ A+
1.16 44% 47% 36% -2 -1 0.96 38% 1.2 .47 14% .35 84% .29 0.94 52% 38% 16% -13 +1 0.78 35% 1.1 .38 19% .27 57% .15
Jan
8		 LIU Brooklyn D- F A+ F D 45% 35% 20% F D- D A+ C+ B- F F F B A- C C B+ 47% 33% 20% B B+ C- A+ B+ D F D+ F
0.96 45% 53% 20% -5 -1 0.90 28% 1.3 .38 17% .14 57% .08 1.00 48% 40% 33% -4 -1 0.91 37% 0.7 .26 18% .39 68% .26
Jan
10		 Wagner D C- B+ B C- 51% 22% 27% C C- F F F A+ D+ A C C- A+ F F C 53% 8% 39% F D+ C+ D- D+ C D+ A+ B-
1.08 56% 45% 38% +2 +1 1.08 4% 0.0 .00 8% .35 81% .28 1.07 35% 50% 47% -4 +3 1.00 31% 1.3 .38 19% .30 56% .17
Jan
17		 Stonehill F C D- F F+ 41% 43% 16% F F C+ F F D+ F+ F F C D+ A+ A- C+ 53% 13% 33% F C B- F D+ C F A+ F
0.82 57% 29% 22% -7 -3 0.82 28% 0.3 .09 13% .21 54% .12 0.89 58% 0% 27% -9 +2 0.89 25% 1.1 .28 21% .44 54% .24
Jan
19		 Central Connecticut St. B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 33% 29% F A+ C+ D+ C C- F A+ F C+ B A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% D- A+ F D+ F C- D+ D+ D
1.28 53% 59% 60% +16 -2 1.31 33% 0.9 .30 13% .07 100% .07 0.99 53% 25% 21% -13 -1 0.75 38% 1.1 .40 16% .29 80% .23
Jan
23		 New Haven D+ D+ B+ B+ C 48% 24% 28% C- C F A+ F+ C+ F A+ F C F F+ A+ D 44% 23% 33% D+ D D+ D D A- F C F
1.04 55% 45% 38% +2 0 1.07 12% 1.7 .20 15% .14 100% .14 0.97 71% 44% 23% +2 0 1.05 24% 1.0 .24 24% .38 71% .27
Jan
25		 Chicago St. F B+ C+ A B- 16% 34% 50% F C- F C+ F D+ F D- F D+ A A+ F C+ 25% 27% 48% D+ C+ C D D+ F B+ B- B+
1.06 71% 40% 41% +8 -3 1.11 24% 1.1 .28 21% .15 71% .11 1.02 42% 15% 39% -6 -2 0.85 29% 1.0 .29 10% .21 73% .15
Jan
29		 New Haven C F C C- F 35% 35% 29% F F C- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B- B+ A- F A+ A 38% 31% 31% B A B D C+ F F A+ F
1.15 28% 39% 33% -11 -2 0.76 27% 1.9 .51 7% .26 87% .23 0.84 50% 54% 8% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.0 .18 15% .44 61% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Chicago St. D+ A+ B+ D+ B- 37% 25% 37% F+ C+ D F F A F D- F F B B+ F F 29% 29% 42% D+ F F F F C- F A+ F
1.11 79% 46% 32% +9 -1 1.18 32% 0.5 .15 15% .25 71% .18 1.17 46% 31% 47% +3 -2 1.04 36% 1.1 .39 15% .53 63% .34
Feb
5		 St. Francis (PA) B- F A+ F F 41% 22% 37% D F A+ A A+ B- A+ A A+ F C D F F 44% 18% 39% F F D- A C+ C+ F C+ F
1.27 45% 58% 25% -6 0 0.91 49% 1.4 .67 17% .47 80% .37 1.15 56% 40% 45% +6 +1 1.16 32% 0.8 .24 19% .35 68% .24
Feb
7		 Fairleigh Dickinson F C+ B F F 24% 39% 37% F F F+ C+ D A F C- F C+ F A+ A+ C- 38% 15% 46% D C- F B+ C- A D F F
0.96 64% 44% 24% -2 -3 0.91 20% 1.0 .20 11% .15 71% .10 1.01 80% 17% 22% -3 +1 0.97 39% 0.7 .29 24% .32 85% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 3.2 8.8 2.7 14.7 2nd
3rd 1.8 14.4 4.2 20.5 3rd
4th 0.6 12.7 9.5 0.1 22.8 4th
5th 0.1 5.2 14.3 0.9 20.5 5th
6th 1.3 9.8 3.5 14.6 6th
7th 2.4 3.5 0.2 6.0 7th
8th 0.7 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 4.4 19.1 32.5 28.0 13.2 2.7 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 2.7% 2.7
11-5 13.2% 13.2
10-6 28.0% 28.0
9-7 32.5% 32.5
8-8 19.1% 19.1
7-9 4.4% 4.4
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7%
Lose Out 4.4%