Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.3 #301
Expected Predictive Rating -9.2 #311
Pace 61.3 #351
Improvement -0.4 #206

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #323 D- C- C+ F F
Defense #250 C D+ C+ D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #304 1.05 #303 -4.4 #322
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% #9 0.85 #59 +6.6 #3
Three Pointers 32% #341 0.82 #362 -7.8 #357
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #330 -5.6 #330
Freethrows 0.21 #364 71% #218 0.15 #364
Second Chance 26.4% #298 1.08 #97 0.29 #238
Turnovers 16.4% #147
Total Offense -5.9 #323

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #18 1.14 #158 -4.0 #317
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #287 0.66 #31 +2.2 #33
Three Pointers 37% #291 1.03 #212 +1.7 #112
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #181 -0.1 #179
Freethrows 0.37 #331 73% #205 0.27 #327
Second Chance 34.5% #318 1.04 #201 0.36 #298
Turnovers 18.2% #103
Total Defense -2.4 #250

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.0% #354 2.0% #341
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.2% #305 -1.8% #147
Possession Length 20.8 #365 15.8 #12
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #352 0.20 #274
Improvement +1.1 #119 -1.5 #274

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 16.2% 33.3% 5.5%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 100.0% 92.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Le Moyne (Away) - 38.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 412 - 812 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 66 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 5% -12  0 - 1 -12 -19 F F B- +7 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 6 275 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 32% +7  1 - 1 +4 +0 C C F +4 B A B-
 Wed, Nov 12 346 @Canisius L 55 - 58 53% -3  1 - 2 -12 -13 F F+ D+ +0 F A- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 352 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 78% +13  2 - 2 -3 +7 C- A+ C- -9 A- F B+
 Thu, Nov 20 87 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 6% -5  2 - 3 +4 +5 B- C+ C -1 B+ C C+
 Sun, Nov 23 163 @Marshall L 60 - 69 16% -5  2 - 4 -6 -6 F C- B- -2 D A C-
 Sun, Nov 30 54 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 3% -18  2 - 5 -19 -20 F C- F -4 B- F+ C
 Fri, Dec 5 313 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 42% -2  2 - 6 -14 +4 F A+ A+ -19 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 111 @Davidson L 47 - 80 9% -17  2 - 7 -26 -14 D F C+ -19 F D+ D+
 Wed, Dec 17 68 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 5% -13  2 - 8 -3 -7 D+ C+ D+ +4 B+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 361 Binghamton W 82 - 61 85% +19  3 - 8 +1 +0 D+ D B- +1 C A+ B-
 Fri, Jan 2 329 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 70% +0  3 - 9 0 - 1 -21 -6 F C D- -15 F B- A-
 Sun, Jan 4 300 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 61% +8  4 - 9 1 - 1 +3 +3 D+ A- B- +2 A+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 209 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 21% -4  4 - 10 1 - 2 -2 -4 D- C+ C+ +2 B+ B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 332 @Wagner W 70 - 69 49% -1  5 - 10 2 - 2 -7 -2 C F A+ -5 C- D+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 330 Stonehill L 57 - 62 OT 70% +2  5 - 11 2 - 3 -19 -17 F F D+ -2 C D+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 295 Central Connecticut St. W 79 - 61 59% +14  6 - 11 3 - 3 +7 +10 A+ C C -1 A+ F C-
 Fri, Jan 23 335 @New Haven W 61 - 57 50% -0  7 - 11 4 - 3 -4 -1 C F+ C+ -2 D D+ A-
 Sun, Jan 25 354 Chicago St. W 61 - 59 79% +3  8 - 11 5 - 3 -15 -7 C- F+ D+ -7 C+ D+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 335 New Haven W 70 - 51 72% +13  9 - 11 6 - 3 +5 +3 F A+ A+ +4 A C+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 354 @Chicago St. L 74 - 78 60% -2  9 - 12 6 - 4 -15 -0 C+ F A -15 F F C-
 Thu, Feb 5 356 St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 89 OT 80% +3  10 - 12 7 - 4 -8 +7 F A+ B- -16 F C+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 329 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 52 - 55 48% -0  10 - 13 7 - 5 -11 -10 F D A -2 C- C- A
 Thu, Feb 12 300 @Le Moyne L 68 - 71 38%
 Thu, Feb 19 332 Wagner W 70 - 64 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 209 LIU Brooklyn L 66 - 69 41%
 Thu, Feb 26 295 @Central Connecticut St. L 65 - 69 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 330 @Stonehill L 61 - 62 48%
Totals 12 - 16 9 - 8 -8 -6 D- C- C+ -2 C D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 3.3 9.1 2.9 15.3 2nd
3rd 1.8 14.2 3.9 19.8 3rd
4th 0.5 12.9 9.1 0.1 22.7 4th
5th 0.1 5.0 14.1 0.9 20.0 5th
6th 1.1 9.9 3.6 0.0 14.7 6th
7th 2.5 3.7 0.2 6.3 7th
8th 1.0 0.1 1.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 4.7 19.1 32.7 27.4 13.2 3.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 3.0% 3.0
11-5 13.2% 13.2
10-6 27.4% 27.4
9-7 32.7% 32.7
8-8 19.1% 19.1
7-9 4.7% 4.7
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.0%
Lose Out 4.7%