Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.7 #309
Expected Predictive Rating -10.6 #323
Pace 62.3 #341
Improvement +0.3 #161

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #331 F F C C F
Defense #243 C D D+ B- F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #302 1.09 #257 -3.8 #307
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #11 0.86 #53 +6.6 #6
Three Pointers 33% #328 0.74 #365 -8.6 #358
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #331 -5.8 #331
Freethrows 11.7 #358 74% #144 8.7 #358
Second Chance 26.9% #283 1.18 #49 0.32 #184
Turnovers 17.0% #206
Total Offense -6.5 #331

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #6 1.15 #162 -5.1 #333
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #250 0.65 #63 +1.8 #63
Three Pointers 34% #336 1.03 #200 +3.2 #70
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #179 -0.1 #178
Freethrows 18.5 #241 77% #340 14.2 #67
Second Chance 34.6% #310 1.02 #154 0.35 #255
Turnovers 18.4% #83
Total Defense -2.2 #243

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.9% #354 2.1% #341
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.8% #299 -1.8% #145
Possession Length 21.3 #365 15.4 #8
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #353 0.24 #339
Improvement +0.5 #152 -0.1 #197

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 20.0% 32.3% 11.5%
.500 or above in Conference 69.1% 82.7% 59.8%
Conference Champion 1.6% 3.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 2.7% 9.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Away) - 40.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 411 - 912 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 60 @Northwestern L 47-70 4%     -11.8   0 - 1 -10.9 -20.0 +8.3
  Thu, Nov 6 251 @Loyola Chicago W 73-65 26%     6.7   1 - 1 +5.9 +0.7 +5.5
  Wed, Nov 12 336 @Canisius L 55-58 48%     -3.3   1 - 2 -11.3 -13.1 +1.4
  Sat, Nov 15 362 Morgan St. W 86-72 83%     13.1   2 - 2 -5.1 +6.8 -11.4
  Thu, Nov 20 98 @Miami (OH) L 71-76 7%     -4.7   2 - 3 +3.2 +5.9 -3.0
  Sun, Nov 23 159 @Marshall L 60-69 14%     -4.6   2 - 4 -6.3 -5.4 -1.8
  Sun, Nov 30 67 @West Virginia L 38-70 4%     -17.7   2 - 5 -20.3 -22.0 -3.2
  Fri, Dec 5 319 @Lafayette L 71-79 41%     -2.4   2 - 6 -14.5 +2.1 -17.4
  Sat, Dec 13 125 @Davidson L 47-80 10%     -16.6   2 - 7 -27.9 -13.4 -20.8
  Wed, Dec 17 69 @Syracuse L 62-76 4%     -12.5   2 - 8 -2.7 -5.2 +2.8
  Sat, Dec 20 359 Binghamton W 82-61 81%     19.3   3 - 8 +2.8 +0.3 +2.6
  Fri, Jan 2 349 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67-74 75%     0.4   3 - 9 0 - 1 -22.7 -8.1 -15.2
  Sun, Jan 4 290 Le Moyne W 74-60 56%     8.0   4 - 9 1 - 1 +3.8 +1.6 +3.6
  Thu, Jan 8 210 @LIU Brooklyn L 58-60 19%     -4.0   4 - 10 1 - 2 -1.6 -5.9 +4.0
  Sat, Jan 10 314 @Wagner L 65-68 41%    
  Sat, Jan 17 339 Stonehill W 67-61 71%    
  Mon, Jan 19 269 Central Connecticut St. W 68-67 52%    
  Fri, Jan 23 338 @New Haven L 61-62 49%    
  Sun, Jan 25 353 Chicago St. W 72-65 75%    
  Thu, Jan 29 338 New Haven W 65-59 70%    
  Sat, Jan 31 353 @Chicago St. W 69-68 55%    
  Thu, Feb 5 361 St. Francis (PA) W 74-64 82%    
  Sat, Feb 7 349 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 69-68 54%    
  Thu, Feb 12 290 @Le Moyne L 68-73 34%    
  Thu, Feb 19 314 Wagner W 68-65 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 210 LIU Brooklyn L 68-71 38%    
  Thu, Feb 26 269 @Central Connecticut St. L 65-70 31%    
  Sat, Feb 28 339 @Stonehill L 63-64 49%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.7 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.2 5.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 6.4 7.1 2.0 0.2 16.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 6.0 7.8 1.8 0.1 16.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 4.2 7.1 2.0 0.1 13.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 6.0 2.3 0.1 10.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.3 2.7 0.2 8.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.7 1.9 0.2 5.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.8 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.1 5.2 8.9 13.8 16.8 17.5 14.9 10.5 6.2 2.4 0.7 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 85.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-2 50.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-3 28.6% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-4 6.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-5 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.2% 0.2
14-2 0.7% 0.7
13-3 2.4% 2.4
12-4 6.2% 6.2
11-5 10.5% 10.5
10-6 14.9% 14.9
9-7 17.5% 17.5
8-8 16.8% 16.8
7-9 13.8% 13.8
6-10 8.9% 8.9
5-11 5.2% 5.2
4-12 2.1% 2.1
3-13 0.8% 0.8
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2%