Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.5 #318
Expected Predictive Rating -9.5 #314
Pace 62.6 #343
Improvement -1.4 #269

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #331 D- F C C F
Defense #275 C D- D+ B F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #311 1.13 #220 -3.7 #303
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #10 0.81 #111 +5.5 #9
Three Pointers 34% #312 0.77 #355 -7.6 #350
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #323 -5.7 #324
Freethrows 11.6 #360 69% #267 8.0 #364
Second Chance 26.1% #297 1.17 #53 0.30 #205
Turnovers 17.2% #217
Total Offense -6.5 #331

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #12 1.16 #168 -5.0 #329
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #282 0.59 #23 +2.6 #27
Three Pointers 36% #306 1.03 #208 +2.2 #102
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #184 -0.1 #184
Freethrows 19.5 #290 76% #326 14.9 #320
Second Chance 34.5% #305 1.04 #192 0.36 #273
Turnovers 18.7% #75
Total Defense -3.0 #275

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.9% #351 2.2% #341
Shot Type Make Effect -7.5% #292 -2% #147
Possession Length 21.0 #365 15.0 #3
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #356 0.26 #355
Improvement +0.5 #149 -1.8 #309
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 18.9% 22.9% 5.4%
.500 or above in Conference 61.9% 69.1% 38.3%
Conference Champion 5.9% 7.1% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 3.8% 13.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Home) - 76.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 411 - 811 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 57 @Northwestern L 47-70 3%     -11.8   0 - 1 -10.7 -19.0 +7.6
  Thu, Nov 6 246 @Loyola Chicago W 73-65 23%     6.7   1 - 1 +6.2 +0.6 +5.9
  Wed, Nov 12 345 @Canisius L 55-58 49%     -3.3   1 - 2 -12.2 -12.1 -0.5
  Sat, Nov 15 360 Morgan St. W 86-72 80%     13.1   2 - 2 -4.5 +6.1 -10.1
  Thu, Nov 20 102 @Miami (OH) L 71-76 6%     -4.7   2 - 3 +3.1 +4.5 -1.7
  Sun, Nov 23 168 @Marshall L 60-69 14%     -4.6   2 - 4 -6.8 -5.3 -2.5
  Sun, Nov 30 64 @West Virginia L 38-70 4%     -17.7   2 - 5 -20.3 -22.0 -3.2
  Fri, Dec 5 323 @Lafayette L 71-79 40%     -2.4   2 - 6 -14.8 +1.8 -17.4
  Sat, Dec 13 142 @Davidson L 47-80 11%     -16.6   2 - 7 -29.1 -14.9 -20.4
  Wed, Dec 17 75 @Syracuse L 62-76 4%     -12.5   2 - 8 -3.4 -5.7 +2.5
  Sat, Dec 20 363 Binghamton W 82-61 81%     19.3   3 - 8 +2.1 -0.7 +2.9
  Fri, Jan 2 357 Fairleigh Dickinson W 73-65 77%    
  Sun, Jan 4 309 Le Moyne W 73-71 57%    
  Thu, Jan 8 202 @LIU Brooklyn L 66-76 18%    
  Sat, Jan 10 292 @Wagner L 65-70 31%    
  Sat, Jan 17 338 Stonehill W 66-61 67%    
  Mon, Jan 19 280 Central Connecticut St. W 66-65 50%    
  Fri, Jan 23 340 @New Haven L 62-63 48%    
  Sun, Jan 25 335 Chicago St. W 71-67 65%    
  Thu, Jan 29 340 New Haven W 65-60 69%    
  Sat, Jan 31 335 @Chicago St. L 68-70 44%    
  Thu, Feb 5 361 St. Francis (PA) W 73-64 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 357 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 70-68 56%    
  Thu, Feb 19 292 Wagner W 68-67 52%    
  Sat, Feb 21 202 LIU Brooklyn L 69-73 37%    
  Thu, Feb 26 280 @Central Connecticut St. L 62-68 30%    
  Sat, Feb 28 338 @Stonehill L 63-64 46%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 4.1 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.0 3.9 0.6 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 6.6 4.2 0.8 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 6.8 4.9 0.8 0.0 14.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.4 5.6 1.0 0.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.5 1.5 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.9 1.6 0.1 10.1 8th
9th 0.2 0.7 2.4 2.8 1.1 0.1 7.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.2 6.7 10.6 14.3 15.8 14.5 12.7 9.7 5.4 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 95.5% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-2 88.4% 0.8    0.7 0.1
13-3 74.3% 1.9    1.1 0.8 0.0
12-4 38.2% 2.1    0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0
11-5 8.0% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 2.8 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.2% 0.2
14-2 1.0% 1.0
13-3 2.6% 2.6
12-4 5.4% 5.4
11-5 9.7% 9.7
10-6 12.7% 12.7
9-7 14.5% 14.5
8-8 15.8% 15.8
7-9 14.3% 14.3
6-10 10.6% 10.6
5-11 6.7% 6.7
4-12 4.2% 4.2
3-13 1.7% 1.7
2-14 0.6% 0.6
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%