Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.4 #304
Expected Predictive Rating -9.6 #320
Pace 62.3 #344
Improvement +0.5 #155

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #333 D- D+ C F F
Defense #232 C D+ B- C- F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #292 1.10 #246 -3.3 #291
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #11 0.85 #62 +6.5 #4
Three Pointers 32% #343 0.79 #361 -8.2 #359
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #322 -5.0 #322
Freethrows 11.6 #363 73% #171 8.5 #364
Second Chance 26.0% #307 1.08 #134 0.28 #262
Turnovers 16.3% #163
Total Offense -6.7 #333

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #5 1.13 #143 -4.8 #327
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #299 0.61 #21 +2.6 #15
Three Pointers 35% #319 1.01 #171 +3.0 #74
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #153 +0.8 #153
Freethrows 18.2 #226 75% #276 13.6 #252
Second Chance 34.0% #310 1.05 #192 0.36 #268
Turnovers 17.8% #96
Total Defense -1.7 #232

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.9% #353 2.4% #352
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.2% #272 -3.9% #104
Possession Length 21.0 #364 15.4 #5
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #358 0.21 #303
Improvement -0.1 #183 +0.6 #136

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 23.3% 36.2% 12.1%
.500 or above in Conference 81.3% 91.7% 72.2%
Conference Champion 1.8% 3.4% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.6% 2.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Haven (Away) - 46.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 412 - 912 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 67 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 4% -12  0 - 1 -12 -20 F F B- +8 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 269 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 30% +7  1 - 1 +5 +0 C+ C- F +5 B+ A+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 346 @Canisius L 55 - 58 53% -3  1 - 2 -12 -13 F F F +0 F A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 361 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 84% +13  2 - 2 -5 +6 D A+ D+ -11 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 20 92 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 6% -5  2 - 3 +4 +6 B B- D+ -2 A C B-
 Sun, Nov 23 174 @Marshall L 60 - 69 17% -5  2 - 4 -7 -6 F C C -2 D- A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 30 56 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 3% -18  2 - 5 -19 -22 F D F -2 B- F B
 Fri, Dec 5 315 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 42% -2  2 - 6 -14 +3 F A+ A+ -18 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 135 @Davidson L 47 - 80 12% -17  2 - 7 -28 -14 D- F C- -21 F D- D+
 Wed, Dec 17 65 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 4% -13  2 - 8 -3 -6 C C- F +4 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 362 Binghamton W 82 - 61 84% +19  3 - 8 +2 +1 C- D- A- +1 C A+ B+
 Fri, Jan 2 348 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 75% +0  3 - 9 0 - 1 -22 -7 F C F -16 F C+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 280 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 55% +8  4 - 9 1 - 1 +4 +3 D+ A B- +2 A+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 223 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 23% -4  4 - 10 1 - 2 -3 -5 F C C+ +2 B+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 328 @Wagner W 70 - 69 46% -1  5 - 10 2 - 2 -6 -2 C F A+ -4 C- C- C
 Sat, Jan 17 340 Stonehill L 57 - 62 OT 72% +2  5 - 11 2 - 3 -19 -18 F F D -1 C+ D+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 277 Central Connecticut St. W 79 - 61 54% +14  6 - 11 3 - 3 +8 +11 A+ C- C +0 A+ F C+
 Fri, Jan 23 330 @New Haven L 61 - 62 46%
 Sun, Jan 25 356 Chicago St. W 72 - 63 80%
 Thu, Jan 29 330 New Haven W 64 - 59 69%
 Sat, Jan 31 356 @Chicago St. W 69 - 66 61%
 Thu, Feb 5 359 St. Francis (PA) W 73 - 64 82%
 Sat, Feb 7 348 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 67 - 66 53%
 Thu, Feb 12 280 @Le Moyne L 67 - 72 33%
 Thu, Feb 19 328 Wagner W 70 - 65 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 223 LIU Brooklyn L 67 - 69 43%
 Thu, Feb 26 277 @Central Connecticut St. L 65 - 70 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 340 @Stonehill L 62 - 63 49%
Totals 12 - 16 9 - 8 -8 -7 D- D+ C -2 C D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 1.8 1st
2nd 0.4 2.2 3.4 1.3 0.0 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.4 7.1 2.5 0.2 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 5.6 10.5 4.0 0.5 21.1 4th
5th 0.4 5.1 10.8 4.4 0.3 21.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 3.6 7.8 4.2 0.3 16.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.6 2.9 0.2 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.9 0.4 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.6 5.0 11.6 16.7 21.3 20.0 13.8 6.9 2.4 0.3 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 89.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-3 37.4% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-4 9.1% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
11-5 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.3% 0.3
13-3 2.4% 2.4
12-4 6.9% 6.9
11-5 13.8% 13.8
10-6 20.0% 20.0
9-7 21.3% 21.3
8-8 16.7% 16.7
7-9 11.6% 11.6
6-10 5.0% 5.0
5-11 1.6% 1.6
4-12 0.4% 0.4
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3%