Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -7.6 289
Results Rating -9.7 316
Consistency 0.15 145
Pace 62.6 331
Improvement +0.2 178

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 297 D C- B- F F
Defense D+ 257 C- D+ C+ D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 319 D 53% 298 -4.6 334
2 Pt. Jumpers 59% 15 B+ 44% 38 +7.3 2
Three Pointers 32% 340 F 28% 363 -7.5 356
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.1 355 D+ -2.7 276
1st FG Attempt D 0.92 325
Second Chance D 26.0% 303 B- 1.08 97 C- 0.28 249
Opponents' Steals B- 8.7% 106
Other Turnovers C+ 6.9% 126
Turnovers B- 15.6% 102
Freethrows F 0.21 364 C 73% 181 F 0.15 364
Total Offense D -4.9 297

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 52% 112 B 8.5% 49
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 36% 45 C+ 4.4% 138
Three Pointers C 84% 198 C- 1.1% 252
Total C- 53% 236 B- 4.7% 76

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 17 C- 59% 208 +4.7 331
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 267 B- 35% 86 -1.5 64
Three Pointers 36% 307 C- 35% 217 -1.9 102
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 330 C +0.3 190
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 222
Second Chance D+ 33.2% 296 C 1.04 193 D+ 0.34 266
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.2% 128
Other Turnovers C+ 7.7% 123
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 107
Freethrows F+ 0.38 343 C 72% 183 D- 0.27 341
Total Defense D+ -2.7 257

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 52% 248 C 10.7% 182
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 43% 359 B+ 8.5% 34
Three Pointers C 83% 159 B+ 1.9% 32
Total D+ 59% 261 B- 7.1% 66

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 20.3 363 15.9 9
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 329 0.19 252
Consistency 0.14 280 0.12 126
Improvement +2.9 54 -2.7 308

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 301 290 279
Results Rating Rank 323 311 304
Conference Record 9 - 7 10 - 6 10 - 6
Conference Finish 4 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Stonehill (Away) - 53.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 413 - 913 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 64 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 5% -12  0% 0 - 1 D -11 F -22 F F B A +10 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 6 284 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 36% +7  78% 1 - 1 C+ +4 C- -1 C+ C F B+ +6 B A- B-
 Wed, Nov 12 345 @Canisius L 55 - 58 59% -3  16% 1 - 2 D- -13 F -15 F F D- C+ +1 F A- C+
 Sat, Nov 15 348 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 80% +13  93% 2 - 2 C- -2 B- +4 C- A+ D+ D -6 A- F A
 Thu, Nov 20 86 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 6% -5  4% 2 - 3 B- +5 C+ +3 B C+ C- C+ +1 B+ C+ B-
 Sun, Nov 23 173 @Marshall L 60 - 69 18% -5  4% 2 - 4 D+ -7 F -11 F D C+ B- +3 D A C
 Sun, Nov 30 57 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 4% -18  0% 2 - 5 F -19 F -22 F C- F C- -2 B- F+ C
 Fri, Dec 5 324 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 49% -2  19% 2 - 6 F+ -15 C +0 F A+ A F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 110 @Davidson L 47 - 80 10% -17  0% 2 - 7 F -26 F -15 D F C+ F -17 F D D+
 Wed, Dec 17 73 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 5% -13  0% 2 - 8 C- -3 F+ -10 D+ C D B+ +7 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 358 Binghamton W 82 - 61 86% +19  97% 3 - 8 C+ +2 D+ -3 D+ D B- B +5 C+ A+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 338 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 76% +0  45% 3 - 9 0 - 1 F -22 F+ -10 F C- F+ F -13 F B A
 Sun, Jan 4 294 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 63% +8  86% 4 - 9 1 - 1 C+ +3 C +1 D+ A C B- +3 A+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 218 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 24% -4  29% 4 - 10 1 - 2 C- -2 D- -6 D- C+ B- B +4 B+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 320 @Wagner W 70 - 69 49% -1  30% 5 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -3 C F A+ C- -3 D+ D C-
 Sat, Jan 17 336 Stonehill L 57 - 62 OT 75% +2  65% 5 - 11 2 - 3 F -20 F -20 F F C- C +0 C D+ C+
 Mon, Jan 19 302 Central Connecticut St. W 79 - 61 64% +14  96% 6 - 11 3 - 3 B- +7 B +7 A+ C- C- C+ +2 A+ F C-
 Fri, Jan 23 329 @New Haven W 61 - 57 51% -0  37% 7 - 11 4 - 3 C- -4 D+ -4 C F+ C+ C+ +1 D- D+ A
 Sun, Jan 25 347 Chicago St. W 61 - 59 79% +3  85% 8 - 11 5 - 3 D- -14 F+ -9 C- F+ D+ D+ -4 C+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 29 329 New Haven W 70 - 51 73% +13  88% 9 - 11 6 - 3 B- +5 C +1 F A+ A+ A- +7 A C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 347 @Chicago St. L 74 - 78 60% -2  27% 9 - 12 6 - 4 D- -14 C- -2 C+ F A F -12 F F C-
 Thu, Feb 5 356 St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 89 OT 84% +3  70% 10 - 12 7 - 4 D -9 C+ +3 F A+ C+ F -13 F C+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 338 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 52 - 55 55% -0  46% 10 - 13 7 - 5 D- -12 F -13 F D A C +0 D+ C A+
 Thu, Feb 12 294 @Le Moyne L 57 - 58 40% -1  37% 10 - 14 7 - 6 D+ -6 F -19 F F A+ A+ +13 B- A A+
 Sat, Feb 14 356 @St. Francis (PA) W 94 - 79 67% +9  89% 11 - 14 8 - 6 C+ +3 A +13 B+ A- A F -10 F B+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 320 Wagner L 80 - 83 OT 71% -4  19% 11 - 15 8 - 7 F+ -16 D- -7 D D B F+ -9 C- D- B
 Sat, Feb 21 218 LIU Brooklyn W 91 - 83 45% +2  51% 12 - 15 9 - 7 C+ +2 A+ +15 A- B A+ F -13 F A- D+
 Thu, Feb 26 302 @Central Connecticut St. L 78 - 80 41% -0  35% 12 - 16 9 - 8 D+ -7 C +1 C+ D B F+ -8 D- F F+
 Sat, Feb 28 336 @Stonehill W 64 - 63 54%
Totals 13 - 16 10 - 8 -8 D -5 C+ D+ F D+ -3 F C F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D B+ F D+ 33% 59% 32% F D D B- C- B- F C F D+ C- B- C- C 46% 18% 36% D C- D+ C D+ C+ F+ C D-
1.02 53% 44% 28% -3 -2 0.92 26% 1.1 .28 16% .21 73% .15 1.13 59% 35% 35% 0 +1 1.05 33% 1.0 .34 18% .38 72% .15
Nov
3		 Northwestern F F A+ F F 30% 38% 32% F F F F F B D- B+ D+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ 48% 17% 35% F+ A+ F F F A F B F
0.70 31% 50% 6% -17 -3 0.62 21% 0.6 .12 16% .23 77% .18 1.04 41% 38% 19% -16 +1 0.72 39% 1.5 .61 18% .68 71% .49
Nov
6		 Loyola Chicago C- D A+ C C+ 40% 22% 38% C C+ C+ D+ C F A C- A B+ C+ A+ B+ A- 45% 6% 49% D- B B A A- B- F F+ F
1.08 50% 60% 35% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.0 .31 18% .38 76% .29 0.96 55% 0% 29% -7 +2 0.92 27% 0.7 .19 21% .43 74% .32
Nov
12		 Canisius F F A+ F F+ 17% 33% 50% F F F C- F D- F B- F C+ D+ F A+ F+ 47% 21% 32% F+ F A B A- C+ F A+ F
0.89 50% 63% 21% -3 -3 0.90 21% 1.0 .21 18% .16 75% .12 0.94 56% 63% 25% 0 +1 1.03 19% 0.8 .15 21% .54 58% .31
Nov
15		 Morgan St. B- B+ F A C+ 32% 28% 40% F C- B A+ A+ D+ A- F C- D D A+ A+ A- 38% 43% 20% A A- F F+ F A F F F
1.27 69% 29% 40% +4 -1 1.08 41% 1.7 .69 16% .49 61% .30 1.06 60% 18% 25% -11 -3 0.75 51% 1.0 .51 24% .74 84% .62
Nov
20		 Miami (OH) C+ A- A+ C- B+ 28% 28% 45% D- B C+ C C+ C- D D- D- C+ F A+ A B+ 42% 18% 40% C- B+ D+ A C+ B- F F F
1.08 69% 54% 33% +7 -2 1.13 31% 0.9 .28 18% .24 69% .17 1.16 74% 25% 28% +1 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 17% .57 84% .48
Nov
23		 Marshall F D+ C- F F 40% 34% 26% D F D+ D D C+ D- F F B- B+ A+ F D 25% 18% 57% D+ D C+ A+ A C D- F F
0.95 55% 35% 15% -9 -2 0.80 32% 0.8 .27 16% .30 56% .17 1.09 55% 13% 48% +6 -1 1.14 30% 0.8 .24 17% .31 81% .25
Nov
30		 West Virginia F F F+ C- F 35% 37% 28% F F F A+ C- F F F F C- C+ F A+ B+ 54% 10% 35% F B- F C F+ C F B- D-
0.63 33% 25% 33% -14 -2 0.70 17% 1.3 .22 25% .18 13% .02 1.15 58% 60% 24% -3 +2 1.00 40% 1.1 .46 16% .39 65% .26
Dec
5		 Lafayette C D- C- F F 29% 43% 28% F F B A+ A+ A F C+ F F A- A F F 43% 9% 48% D- F F F F A+ D- F F
1.11 53% 36% 25% -6 -4 0.83 37% 1.6 .61 9% .14 75% .10 1.24 47% 25% 57% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .40 24% .33 94% .31
Dec
13		 Davidson F A+ F F D+ 33% 38% 29% F+ D F C F C+ B- F F+ F F F+ F F 62% 10% 29% F F F A- D D+ D- C+ D
0.80 79% 19% 25% -4 -3 0.88 9% 1.0 .09 17% .33 44% .14 1.36 69% 50% 58% +18 +3 1.45 42% 0.9 .38 15% .34 65% .22
Dec
17		 Syracuse F+ B F+ F C 34% 38% 28% F D+ C- B- C D F D+ F B+ B F A+ A 50% 18% 32% D+ A- F+ F F A+ B+ F C
0.87 61% 25% 27% -7 -3 0.83 30% 1.2 .35 21% .18 70% .12 1.07 56% 56% 25% -2 +1 1.00 38% 1.4 .53 22% .29 75% .22
Dec
20		 Binghamton D+ C A D+ C- 43% 31% 26% F+ D+ D- B- D B- F A+ F B D+ A+ B B 55% 20% 25% F C+ A A+ A+ B F D+ F
1.18 60% 50% 33% +4 -1 1.09 26% 1.1 .29 10% .19 83% .16 0.88 59% 13% 30% -6 +1 0.93 11% 0.0 .00 23% .58 77% .45
Jan
2		 Fairleigh Dickinson F+ C+ A+ F F 35% 28% 37% D- F D+ C+ C- F+ B A+ A+ F C- F F F 59% 9% 32% F F D- A+ B A D- D- F+
1.05 63% 54% 18% -3 -1 0.93 26% 1.0 .26 19% .38 90% .35 1.16 58% 75% 50% +11 +3 1.30 36% 0.6 .23 23% .33 75% .24
Jan
4		 Le Moyne C F A+ C+ C- 38% 32% 30% F+ D+ B+ A- A C B- A+ A- B- B C A+ A+ 46% 16% 38% D+ A+ F D+ F D+ B+ A+ A
1.16 44% 47% 36% -2 -1 0.96 38% 1.2 .47 14% .35 84% .29 0.94 52% 38% 16% -13 +1 0.78 35% 1.1 .38 19% .27 57% .15
Jan
8		 LIU Brooklyn D- F A+ F D 45% 35% 20% F D- D- A+ C+ B- F F F B A C C B+ 47% 33% 20% B B+ D+ A+ B+ D F D+ F
0.96 45% 53% 20% -5 -1 0.90 28% 1.3 .38 17% .14 57% .08 1.00 48% 40% 33% -4 -1 0.91 37% 0.7 .26 18% .39 68% .26
Jan
10		 Wagner D+ C- B+ B C+ 51% 22% 27% C- C F F F A+ D+ A C+ C- A+ F F C 53% 8% 39% F D+ C+ F D C- D+ A+ B-
1.08 56% 45% 38% +2 +1 1.08 4% 0.0 .00 8% .35 81% .28 1.07 35% 50% 47% -4 +3 1.00 31% 1.3 .38 19% .30 56% .17
Jan
17		 Stonehill F C F+ F F+ 41% 43% 16% F F C F F C- F+ F F C D+ A+ A- C+ 53% 13% 33% F C B- F D+ C+ F A+ F
0.82 57% 29% 22% -7 -3 0.82 28% 0.3 .09 13% .21 54% .12 0.89 58% 0% 27% -9 +2 0.89 25% 1.1 .28 21% .44 54% .24
Jan
19		 Central Connecticut St. B D+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 33% 29% F A+ C+ D- C- C- F A+ F C+ B A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% F+ A+ F D+ F C- D D+ D
1.28 53% 59% 60% +16 -2 1.31 33% 0.9 .30 13% .07 100% .07 0.99 53% 25% 21% -13 -1 0.75 38% 1.1 .40 16% .29 80% .23
Jan
23		 New Haven D+ D B+ B+ C 48% 24% 28% C- C F A+ F+ C+ F A+ F C+ F F+ A+ D- 44% 23% 33% D+ D- D+ C- D+ A F C F
1.04 55% 45% 38% +2 0 1.07 12% 1.7 .20 15% .14 100% .14 0.97 71% 44% 23% +1 0 1.05 24% 1.0 .24 24% .38 71% .27
Jan
25		 Chicago St. F+ A- C+ A B- 16% 34% 50% F C- F C+ F+ D+ F D- F D+ A A+ F C+ 25% 27% 48% D+ C+ C D+ C- F B B- B
1.06 71% 40% 41% +8 -3 1.11 24% 1.1 .28 21% .15 71% .11 1.02 42% 15% 39% -7 -2 0.85 29% 1.0 .29 10% .21 73% .15
Jan
29		 New Haven C F C C- F 35% 35% 29% F F C- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B- A- B+ F A+ A 38% 31% 31% B+ A B C- C+ F+ F A+ F
1.15 28% 39% 33% -11 -2 0.76 27% 1.9 .51 7% .26 87% .23 0.84 50% 54% 8% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.0 .18 15% .44 61% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Chicago St. C- A+ A- D B 37% 25% 37% F+ C+ D+ F F A F D- F F B+ B+ F F 29% 29% 42% D+ F F D- F C- F A+ F
1.11 79% 46% 32% +8 -1 1.18 32% 0.5 .15 15% .25 71% .18 1.17 46% 31% 47% +3 -2 1.04 36% 1.1 .39 15% .53 63% .34
Feb
5		 St. Francis (PA) C+ F A+ F F 41% 22% 37% D F A+ A- A+ C+ A+ A A+ F C D F F 44% 18% 39% F+ F D- A C+ C+ F C+ F+
1.27 45% 58% 25% -6 0 0.91 49% 1.4 .67 17% .47 80% .37 1.15 56% 40% 45% +6 +1 1.16 32% 0.8 .24 19% .35 68% .24
Feb
7		 Fairleigh Dickinson F C+ B F F 24% 39% 37% F F F+ C+ D A F C- F C F A+ A+ D+ 38% 15% 46% D- D+ F A C A+ D F F
0.96 64% 44% 24% -2 -3 0.91 20% 1.0 .20 11% .15 71% .10 1.01 80% 17% 22% -3 +1 0.97 39% 0.7 .29 24% .32 85% .27
Feb
12		 Le Moyne F F C- F F 23% 33% 44% F F F C+ F A+ F A F A+ F B A+ B 51% 19% 30% D+ B- C- A+ A A+ D+ A+ B
0.83 46% 32% 20% -14 -3 0.68 19% 1.1 .21 9% .17 82% .14 0.84 71% 33% 14% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.4 .11 26% .35 56% .20
Feb
14		 St. Francis (PA) A A+ A+ B+ A 38% 22% 40% D B+ C A+ A- A D- A+ C+ F D- B+ F F 55% 15% 30% F F A C- B+ F F A F
1.37 79% 55% 40% +15 0 1.32 33% 1.5 .50 13% .30 89% .27 1.15 65% 29% 43% +7 +2 1.19 19% 1.0 .19 15% .56 61% .34
Feb
19		 Wagner D- F B+ B+ C- 33% 33% 33% F D D+ F+ D B B F C- F+ A+ F F D 30% 36% 34% A+ C- D- C- D- B F F F
1.07 44% 44% 39% 0 -2 0.98 28% 0.9 .26 12% .41 63% .26 1.11 33% 50% 41% +1 -3 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 21% .51 80% .41
Feb
21		 LIU Brooklyn A+ F A+ C+ A+ 38% 30% 32% F A- C+ A- B A+ C+ A+ B+ F F F C F 40% 29% 31% B F A- B A- D+ F+ F F
1.30 45% 81% 35% +9 -1 1.17 35% 1.2 .42 11% .34 81% .28 1.19 84% 50% 33% +14 -1 1.27 28% 0.9 .24 19% .35 80% .28
Feb
26		 Central Connecticut St. C C+ A+ F B 44% 29% 27% F C+ F B D B D B+ C- F+ D D+ F F+ 43% 36% 21% D+ D- B F F F+ F A- F
1.15 58% 63% 27% +4 -1 1.09 23% 1.1 .26 10% .23 86% .20 1.18 65% 41% 40% +6 -2 1.11 22% 2.0 .44 13% .47 71% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 27.0 27.0 3rd
4th 46.4 26.6 73.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 46.4 53.6 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 53.6% 53.6
9-7 46.4% 46.4
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 53.6%
Lose Out 46.4%