Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.2 #300
Expected Predictive Rating -8.5 #304
Pace 62.0 #344
Improvement +0.1 #186

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #318 D C- C+ F F+
Defense #256 C D+ C+ D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #288 1.05 #304 -4.2 #317
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% #11 0.85 #56 +6.5 #3
Three Pointers 32% #343 0.84 #356 -7.6 #358
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #328 -5.2 #328
Freethrows 0.21 #363 71% #220 0.15 #362
Second Chance 26.5% #297 1.08 #99 0.29 #236
Turnovers 16.5% #149
Total Offense -5.6 #318

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #17 1.13 #126 -3.7 #304
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #288 0.67 #46 +2.1 #43
Three Pointers 37% #296 1.05 #229 +1.6 #113
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #182 +0.0 #183
Freethrows 0.37 #330 72% #174 0.27 #327
Second Chance 34.1% #310 1.05 #216 0.36 #294
Turnovers 18.0% #118
Total Defense -2.6 #256

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.9% #353 2.0% #343
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.6% #297 -1.9% #144
Possession Length 20.7 #365 15.6 #6
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #352 0.20 #280
Improvement +1.9 #85 -1.8 #287

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 30.0% 46.8% 13.6%
.500 or above in Conference 97.3% 100.0% 94.7%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Away) - 49.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 413 - 813 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 67 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 5% -12  0 - 1 -12 -19 F F B- +7 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 6 272 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 32% +7  1 - 1 +5 +1 C+ C F +4 B A B
 Wed, Nov 12 349 @Canisius L 55 - 58 54% -3  1 - 2 -12 -13 F F+ D+ +0 F A- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 354 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 80% +13  2 - 2 -3 +7 C- A+ C -10 B+ F B+
 Thu, Nov 20 92 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 7% -5  2 - 3 +4 +5 B- C+ C -2 B+ C- C+
 Sun, Nov 23 156 @Marshall L 60 - 69 15% -5  2 - 4 -6 -5 F C- C+ -2 D A C-
 Sun, Nov 30 55 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 4% -18  2 - 5 -19 -20 F C- F -4 B- D- C
 Fri, Dec 5 315 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 43% -2  2 - 6 -14 +3 F A+ A -18 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 111 @Davidson L 47 - 80 9% -17  2 - 7 -27 -14 D F C+ -19 F D+ D+
 Wed, Dec 17 69 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 5% -13  2 - 8 -3 -7 D+ C+ C- +4 B+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 361 Binghamton W 82 - 61 85% +19  3 - 8 +2 +0 C- D B- +1 C A+ B-
 Fri, Jan 2 332 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 71% +0  3 - 9 0 - 1 -21 -7 F C D- -15 F B- A
 Sun, Jan 4 296 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 60% +8  4 - 9 1 - 1 +3 +3 D+ A- B- +2 A+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 204 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 21% -4  4 - 10 1 - 2 -2 -4 D- C+ B- +2 B+ A- D
 Sat, Jan 10 327 @Wagner W 70 - 69 47% -1  5 - 10 2 - 2 -6 -2 C F A+ -4 C- D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 333 Stonehill L 57 - 62 OT 71% +2  5 - 11 2 - 3 -19 -17 F F D+ -2 C D+ C-
 Mon, Jan 19 299 Central Connecticut St. W 79 - 61 61% +14  6 - 11 3 - 3 +7 +10 A+ C C -1 A+ F C-
 Fri, Jan 23 329 @New Haven W 61 - 57 48% -0  7 - 11 4 - 3 -4 -1 C F+ C+ -2 D D+ B+
 Sun, Jan 25 357 Chicago St. W 61 - 59 81% +3  8 - 11 5 - 3 -15 -8 C- F+ C- -7 C+ D+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 329 New Haven W 70 - 51 70% +13  9 - 11 6 - 3 +5 +4 F A+ A+ +5 A C+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 357 @Chicago St. L 74 - 78 63% -2  9 - 12 6 - 4 -15 -1 C+ F A -15 F F D+
 Thu, Feb 5 358 St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 89 OT 81% +3  10 - 12 7 - 4 -9 +7 F A+ B- -16 F C C
 Sat, Feb 7 332 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 68 50%
 Thu, Feb 12 296 @Le Moyne L 68 - 71 37%
 Thu, Feb 19 327 Wagner W 70 - 65 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 204 LIU Brooklyn L 67 - 70 41%
 Thu, Feb 26 299 @Central Connecticut St. L 66 - 69 39%
 Sat, Feb 28 333 @Stonehill L 61 - 62 49%
Totals 13 - 15 10 - 7 -8 -6 D C- C+ -3 C D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 3.3 11.8 7.7 1.3 24.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 13.4 7.8 0.3 22.9 3rd
4th 0.1 8.4 10.9 0.6 19.9 4th
5th 0.0 2.1 11.8 1.7 15.5 5th
6th 0.3 6.0 4.0 0.1 10.3 6th
7th 1.5 3.7 0.3 5.4 7th
8th 0.8 0.3 1.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 2.7 12.2 25.8 29.3 20.1 8.2 1.6 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 20.7% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
12-4 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
11-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 1.6% 1.6
12-4 8.2% 8.2
11-5 20.1% 20.1
10-6 29.3% 29.3
9-7 25.8% 25.8
8-8 12.2% 12.2
7-9 2.7% 2.7
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6%
Lose Out 2.7%