Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.4 #314
Expected Predictive Rating -10.9 #329
Pace 62.3 #341
Improvement -1.6 #266

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #341 F D+ C F F
Defense #242 C C- B- D+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #293 1.10 #250 -3.4 #298
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #11 0.83 #76 +6.1 #6
Three Pointers 32% #337 0.74 #364 -8.9 #360
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #341 -6.2 #341
Freethrows 11.9 #360 73% #163 8.7 #362
Second Chance 25.6% #314 1.10 #116 0.28 #267
Turnovers 16.3% #165
Total Offense -7.4 #341

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #5 1.14 #155 -5.0 #332
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #284 0.63 #30 +2.3 #26
Three Pointers 35% #328 1.04 #220 +2.7 #83
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #177 +0.0 #177
Freethrows 18.5 #239 75% #287 13.9 #275
Second Chance 33.3% #290 1.05 #189 0.35 #254
Turnovers 17.9% #90
Total Defense -2.0 #242

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.9% #353 2.3% #350
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.5% #312 -2.2% #141
Possession Length 21.1 #365 15.3 #4
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #358 0.22 #326
Improvement -1.3 #261 -0.2 #199

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 12.3% 20.6% 5.0%
.500 or above in Conference 64.0% 77.7% 51.6%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.3% 2.2% 8.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Home) - 47.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 411 - 911 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 67 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 4% -12  0 - 1 -12 -20 F F B- +8 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 270 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 27% +7  1 - 1 +5 +0 C+ C- F +5 B+ A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 12 347 @Canisius L 55 - 58 49% -3  1 - 2 -12 -13 F F F +0 F A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 362 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 81% +13  2 - 2 -5 +6 D A+ D+ -10 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 20 92 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 5% -5  2 - 3 +4 +6 B B- D+ -2 A C B-
 Sun, Nov 23 176 @Marshall L 60 - 69 15% -5  2 - 4 -7 -6 F C C -2 D- A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 30 57 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 3% -18  2 - 5 -19 -22 F D F -2 B- F B
 Fri, Dec 5 316 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 39% -2  2 - 6 -15 +2 F A+ A+ -18 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 135 @Davidson L 47 - 80 10% -17  2 - 7 -29 -14 D- F C- -21 F D D+
 Wed, Dec 17 64 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 4% -13  2 - 8 -3 -6 C C F +4 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 361 Binghamton W 82 - 61 80% +19  3 - 8 +3 +1 C- D- A- +1 C A+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 353 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 74% +0  3 - 9 0 - 1 -23 -7 F C F -17 F C+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 285 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 53% +8  4 - 9 1 - 1 +4 +3 D A B- +2 A+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 215 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 19% -4  4 - 10 1 - 2 -2 -5 F C C+ +2 A- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 324 @Wagner W 70 - 69 41% -1  5 - 10 2 - 2 -6 -2 C F A+ -4 C C C
 Sat, Jan 17 339 Stonehill L 57 - 62 OT 67% +2  5 - 11 2 - 3 -19 -19 F F D -0 B- D+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 261 Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 68 47%
 Fri, Jan 23 333 @New Haven L 61 - 63 44%
 Sun, Jan 25 355 Chicago St. W 71 - 64 76%
 Thu, Jan 29 333 New Haven W 64 - 60 66%
 Sat, Jan 31 355 @Chicago St. W 68 - 67 55%
 Thu, Feb 5 359 St. Francis (PA) W 73 - 64 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 353 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 67 - 66 51%
 Thu, Feb 12 285 @Le Moyne L 66 - 71 31%
 Thu, Feb 19 324 Wagner W 69 - 65 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 215 LIU Brooklyn L 66 - 69 38%
 Thu, Feb 26 261 @Central Connecticut St. L 64 - 71 26%
 Sat, Feb 28 339 @Stonehill L 62 - 63 44%
Totals 11 - 17 8 - 9 -9 -7 F D+ C -2 C C- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.1 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.9 3.7 4.2 1.5 0.1 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 6.0 7.0 1.9 0.2 16.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 7.0 8.0 2.4 0.2 18.7 5th
6th 0.7 6.4 9.0 2.9 0.2 19.1 6th
7th 0.4 3.9 7.3 2.4 0.2 14.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.7 1.8 0.2 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.3 0.1 5.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.3 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.2 5.9 10.7 16.7 19.9 18.0 13.7 7.6 3.4 1.1 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 66.7% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-3 29.9% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
12-4 6.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.2% 0.2
13-3 1.1% 1.1
12-4 3.4% 3.4
11-5 7.6% 7.6
10-6 13.7% 13.7
9-7 18.0% 18.0
8-8 19.9% 19.9
7-9 16.7% 16.7
6-10 10.7% 10.7
5-11 5.9% 5.9
4-12 2.2% 2.2
3-13 0.5% 0.5
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2%