Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.0 #300
Expected Predictive Rating -8.4 #305
Pace 62.1 #347
Improvement +0.4 #170

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #332 D- D+ C F F
Defense #223 C D+ B- D- F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #282 1.10 #254 -3.1 #288
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #12 0.85 #60 +6.4 #3
Three Pointers 32% #343 0.82 #357 -8.0 #358
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #309 -4.7 #312
Freethrows 12.0 #364 70% #238 8.4 #364
Second Chance 25.5% #317 1.09 #124 0.28 #267
Turnovers 16.2% #162
Total Offense -6.6 #332

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #5 1.14 #158 -5.0 #336
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #289 0.64 #26 +2.3 #26
Three Pointers 35% #325 1.00 #156 +3.3 #60
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #161 +0.6 #161
Freethrows 20.7 #321 73% #244 15.2 #328
Second Chance 33.6% #299 1.06 #202 0.36 #267
Turnovers 17.9% #87
Total Defense -1.5 #223

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.8% #352 2.3% #352
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.5% #268 -3.4% #115
Possession Length 21.0 #365 15.4 #5
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #358 0.21 #304
Improvement +0.0 #173 +0.3 #165

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 36.8% 41.4% 14.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.4% 94.7% 75.3%
Conference Champion 3.5% 4.0% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 2.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 83.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 413 - 813 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 61 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 4% -12  0 - 1 -11 -20 F F C+ +8 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 269 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 32% +7  1 - 1 +5 +0 C+ C F +5 B+ A+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 345 @Canisius L 55 - 58 53% -3  1 - 2 -12 -12 F F F +0 F A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 360 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 84% +13  2 - 2 -5 +6 D A+ D+ -10 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 20 89 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 6% -5  2 - 3 +4 +6 B C+ D+ -1 A+ C B-
 Sun, Nov 23 164 @Marshall L 60 - 69 16% -5  2 - 4 -6 -6 F C- C -1 D- A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 30 52 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 3% -18  2 - 5 -18 -21 F D F -2 B F B-
 Fri, Dec 5 314 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 43% -2  2 - 6 -14 +3 F A+ A+ -18 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 134 @Davidson L 47 - 80 12% -17  2 - 7 -28 -14 F F C -21 F D- D+
 Wed, Dec 17 67 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 5% -13  2 - 8 -3 -6 C C F +3 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 362 Binghamton W 82 - 61 84% +19  3 - 8 +2 +1 C- D- B+ +1 C A+ B+
 Fri, Jan 2 339 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 73% +0  3 - 9 0 - 1 -21 -7 F C F -15 F C+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 283 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 57% +8  4 - 9 1 - 1 +4 +3 D A B- +2 A+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 224 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 24% -4  4 - 10 1 - 2 -3 -5 F C C+ +2 B+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 325 @Wagner W 70 - 69 46% -1  5 - 10 2 - 2 -6 -2 C F A+ -4 C C- C
 Sat, Jan 17 337 Stonehill L 57 - 62 OT 72% +2  5 - 11 2 - 3 -19 -18 F F D- -1 B- D+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 291 Central Connecticut St. W 79 - 61 59% +14  6 - 11 3 - 3 +8 +10 A+ C- C +0 A+ F C
 Fri, Jan 23 334 @New Haven W 61 - 57 50% -0  7 - 11 4 - 3 -4 -1 C- F B- -2 D- C- A-
 Sun, Jan 25 357 Chicago St. W 72 - 62 83%
 Thu, Jan 29 334 New Haven W 64 - 58 71%
 Sat, Jan 31 357 @Chicago St. W 69 - 65 66%
 Thu, Feb 5 355 St. Francis (PA) W 73 - 64 80%
 Sat, Feb 7 339 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 67 - 66 52%
 Thu, Feb 12 283 @Le Moyne L 67 - 71 35%
 Thu, Feb 19 325 Wagner W 69 - 64 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 224 LIU Brooklyn L 67 - 68 46%
 Thu, Feb 26 291 @Central Connecticut St. L 66 - 70 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 337 @Stonehill W 63 - 62 50%
Totals 13 - 15 10 - 7 -8 -7 D- D+ C -1 C D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.6 3.5 1st
2nd 0.6 5.1 6.6 2.6 0.1 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.6 6.5 10.6 3.4 0.3 21.4 3rd
4th 0.3 5.6 11.4 4.2 0.2 21.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.8 8.9 4.0 0.2 16.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 6.0 3.9 0.4 11.6 6th
7th 0.4 2.9 2.9 0.4 6.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.3 2.9 8th
9th 0.3 0.7 0.2 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.0 6.2 12.3 19.4 23.0 20.3 11.5 4.3 0.7 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 80.6% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0
13-3 33.6% 1.5    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0
12-4 11.1% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.7% 0.7
13-3 4.3% 4.3
12-4 11.5% 11.5
11-5 20.3% 20.3
10-6 23.0% 23.0
9-7 19.4% 19.4
8-8 12.3% 12.3
7-9 6.2% 6.2
6-10 2.0% 2.0
5-11 0.4% 0.4
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7%