Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.7#300
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#284
Pace73.9#44
Improvement-1.5#332

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#324
First Shot-6.3#340
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#122
Layup/Dunks-5.2#348
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#78
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#283
Freethrows-0.3#199
Improvement-0.4#259

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#241
First Shot+0.6#157
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#354
Layups/Dunks-2.7#285
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#62
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#22
Freethrows-2.9#343
Improvement-1.1#321
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 4.3% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 20.1% 25.5% 4.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.0% 96.0% 76.8%
Conference Champion 8.8% 11.0% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.3% 3.5% 2.6%
First Round2.0% 2.2% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Neutral) - 74.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 31 - 42 - 9
Quad 410 - 611 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 19   @ Xavier L 73-96 2%     0 - 1 -6.4 -5.4 +2.2
  Nov 12, 2022 74   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 54-69 6%     0 - 2 -5.2 -13.4 +9.1
  Nov 15, 2022 108   @ Akron L 59-65 10%     0 - 3 +0.4 -5.5 +5.5
  Nov 18, 2022 99   Utah Valley W 73-72 OT 13%     1 - 3 +5.7 -0.6 +6.2
  Nov 20, 2022 221   Queens L 64-74 32%     1 - 4 -12.8 -15.5 +2.9
  Nov 23, 2022 91   @ Loyola Marymount L 80-81 OT 8%     1 - 5 +7.2 +3.3 +4.0
  Dec 03, 2022 243   @ Bowling Green L 76-86 28%     1 - 6 -11.5 -3.8 -7.2
  Dec 10, 2022 217   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 63-75 22%     1 - 7 -11.6 -17.9 +7.1
  Dec 22, 2022 9   @ Arizona L 68-93 2%     1 - 8 -6.5 +1.1 -6.8
  Dec 30, 2022 360   @ Hartford W 61-54 74%     2 - 8 -7.2 -18.7 +11.4
  Jan 07, 2023 254   NC Central W 78-73 OT 50%     3 - 8 1 - 0 -2.5 +1.5 -4.1
  Jan 09, 2023 355   South Carolina St. W 90-85 81%     4 - 8 2 - 0 -12.1 +0.5 -12.9
  Jan 14, 2023 345   @ Coppin St. W 83-66 56%     5 - 8 3 - 0 +7.7 -7.2 +12.5
  Jan 18, 2023 360   Hartford W 92-84 87%     6 - 8 -11.7 +7.9 -19.7
  Jan 21, 2023 269   @ Howard L 56-88 32%     6 - 9 3 - 1 -34.8 -24.5 -6.9
  Jan 23, 2023 203   Norfolk St. W 77-71 37%     7 - 9 4 - 1 +1.6 -0.1 +1.8
  Jan 28, 2023 356   @ Delaware St. L 62-64 66%     7 - 10 4 - 2 -13.8 -11.3 -2.6
  Jan 30, 2023 292   Maryland Eastern Shore L 58-72 58%     7 - 11 4 - 3 -23.7 -15.2 -8.7
  Feb 04, 2023 356   Delaware St. W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 11, 2023 254   @ NC Central L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 13, 2023 355   @ South Carolina St. W 80-76 63%    
  Feb 18, 2023 203   @ Norfolk St. L 68-77 20%    
  Feb 20, 2023 269   Howard W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 25, 2023 356   Delaware St. W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 27, 2023 292   @ Maryland Eastern Shore L 67-70 37%    
  Mar 02, 2023 345   Coppin St. W 82-75 76%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 8 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.3 4.1 3.8 0.6 8.8 1st
2nd 0.2 5.5 8.3 0.9 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 5.2 14.0 2.4 0.0 21.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 6.2 17.1 6.2 0.1 30.1 4th
5th 0.3 4.2 10.3 4.9 0.1 19.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 2.4 0.8 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.2 1.7 7.1 17.5 27.5 26.0 14.8 4.7 0.6 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.1
11-3 81.1% 3.8    1.8 1.7 0.3 0.0
10-4 27.3% 4.1    0.3 1.6 1.7 0.5 0.0
9-5 1.1% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 2.7 3.3 2.1 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.6% 15.9% 15.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
11-3 4.7% 11.5% 11.5% 15.9 0.1 0.5 4.1
10-4 14.8% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.0 1.0 13.8
9-5 26.0% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1 24.9
8-6 27.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.7 26.7
7-7 17.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 17.2
6-8 7.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.0
5-9 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-10 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.8 96.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 15.9% 15.4 0.3 9.4 6.2
Lose Out 0.2% 1.3% 16.0 1.3