Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -13.9 352
Expected Predictive Rating -11.9 339
Pace 74.7 38
Improvement +1.0 153

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 328 F+ D D B D-
Defense F+ 353 D F D+ F F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 280 D 51% 324 -4.2 327
2 Pt. Jumpers 60% 12 D+ 34% 291 +2.6 56
Three Pointers 35% 310 D- 30% 330 -5.5 338
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.4 336 D- -5.7 344
1st FG Attempt F+ 0.88 354
Second Chance C- 29.3% 215 F+ 0.84 357 D 0.25 318
Turnovers D 18.9% 307
Freethrows B 0.34 67 C+ 74% 138 B 0.25 65
Total Offense D -6.4 328

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 52% 121 D+ 12.8% 282
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 32% 84 C 5.4% 209
Three Pointers D- 75% 339 C- 1.1% 231
Total C- 53% 244 D+ 6.5% 280

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 12 D 64% 329 +7.5 361
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 356 D+ 41% 281 -2.3 20
Three Pointers 40% 224 C 34% 183 -0.6 153
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.4 361 D +3.0 297
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 325
Second Chance D- 35.4% 338 F 1.24 363 F 0.44 361
Turnovers D+ 15.3% 272
Freethrows F 0.45 364 C+ 71% 123 F 0.32 364
Total Defense F+ -7.5 353

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F+ 60% 349 D+ 9.0% 250
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 40% 345 D+ 3.3% 274
Three Pointers D+ 87% 265 D+ 0.5% 259
Total D- 65% 344 C- 4.9% 238

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 138 16.1 22
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 160 0.25 360
Improvement -0.8 #230 +1.7 #92

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 359 351 337
Conference Record 7 - 7 9 - 5 10 - 4
Conference Finish 5 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 6% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 97% 100% 91%
Conference Champion 18% 22% 7%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four5% 6% 4%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Home) - 70.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 21 - 5
Quad 49 - 1210 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 74 @Georgetown L 70 - 87 2% -10  21% 0 - 1 D+ -6 D- -6 D+ C- F C+ +1 A D- F
 Tue, Nov 11 232 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 79 - 81 25% -6  16% 0 - 2 D -9 C- -2 D- B- C+ D- -7 F C- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 301 @Mercyhurst L 72 - 86 20% -13  6% 0 - 3 F -19 C- -1 F A+ F F -18 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 288 N.C. A&T L 73 - 79 36% -4  9% 0 - 4 F+ -16 D- -7 D F A+ F+ -9 F F C+
 Fri, Nov 21 239 @Old Dominion L 56 - 88 12% -18  0% 0 - 5 F -33 F -17 F F+ D F -18 F+ F+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 222 Drexel L 66 - 71 24% -7  2% 0 - 6 D- -11 D -5 C- F A D- -7 D+ B+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 270 Longwood L 80 - 84 32% -1  46% 0 - 7 D- -13 D+ -3 D D- C F+ -9 D+ F C
 Tue, Dec 9 93 @DePaul L 49 - 92 3% -28  0% 0 - 8 F -34 F -18 F F F F -18 F D- F+
 Sat, Dec 13 337 Niagara W 81 - 73 53% +4  89% 1 - 8 D+ -7 C+ +3 A+ A F F+ -9 D+ F F
 Fri, Dec 19 71 @California L 50 - 97 2% -22  0% 1 - 9 F -36 F -20 F D- F+ F -16 F F D+
 Sun, Dec 21 119 @San Francisco L 64 - 94 4% -13  21% 1 - 10 F -24 D- -8 D+ C- F F -17 C F C-
 Tue, Dec 23 153 @Loyola Marymount L 56 - 83 7% -16  0% 1 - 11 F -24 F -16 F B+ F F+ -8 F F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 348 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 49 - 66 36% -6  17% 1 - 12 0 - 1 F -27 F -27 F F F C -1 B- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 357 South Carolina St. W 72 - 67 66% -2  16% 2 - 12 1 - 1 D- -13 D- -7 F+ F A D -6 D- F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 350 NC Central L 78 - 89 59% -4  14% 2 - 13 1 - 2 F -27 D -4 D+ F B- F -23 F A F
 Sat, Jan 17 361 @Delaware St. W 80 - 79 49% +5  76% 3 - 13 2 - 2 D- -13 C- -1 D F B+ F -12 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 215 @Howard W 78 - 77 10% -3  15% 4 - 13 3 - 2 C +1 D -4 F A+ D+ B+ +5 A+ F C+
 Mon, Jan 26 306 @Norfolk St. W 79 - 78 22% -3  36% 5 - 13 4 - 2 C- -5 D+ -4 C- F D+ C -1 A F F
 Sat, Jan 31 364 @Coppin St. W 89 - 80 57% +12  100% 6 - 13 5 - 2 D+ -7 C +2 F A D F+ -9 F C F+
 Sat, Feb 7 348 Maryland Eastern Shore W 79 - 71 59% +2  79% 7 - 13 6 - 2 D -8 C +1 D+ D A+ F+ -9 B- C F
 Mon, Feb 16 350 @NC Central L 76 - 80 36% -11  7% 7 - 14 6 - 3 D- -14 D- -8 F F D+ D- -6 D- F A-
 Sat, Feb 21 361 Delaware St. W 75 - 69 71%
 Wed, Feb 25 357 @South Carolina St. L 76 - 78 43%
 Sat, Feb 28 215 Howard L 72 - 80 23%
 Mon, Mar 2 306 Norfolk St. L 76 - 78 41%
 Thu, Mar 5 364 Coppin St. W 80 - 72 77%
Totals 10 - 16 9 - 5 -14 D -6 C+ D- D- F+ -8 D- C+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D D+ D- D- 35% 60% 35% D- F+ C- F+ D D B C+ B F+ D D+ C D 47% 14% 40% F+ D D- F F D+ F C+ F
1.00 51% 34% 30% -6 -1 0.88 29% 0.8 .25 19% .34 74% .25 1.19 64% 41% 34% +3 +1 1.11 35% 1.2 .44 15% .45 71% .24
Nov
3		 Georgetown D- F F+ A D 38% 27% 35% C D+ C D+ C- F A+ D+ A C+ C+ F A+ A+ 46% 9% 44% F A C- F+ D- F F A- F
0.93 39% 31% 41% -5 -1 0.90 30% 0.9 .27 21% .40 71% .29 1.15 56% 80% 17% -9 +2 0.89 35% 1.3 .45 9% .57 69% .39
Nov
11		 Maryland Baltimore Co. C- F F A+ D- 45% 22% 33% C D- B C- B- C+ D+ A C D- F F F F 45% 5% 50% F F D+ C C- A+ F A F
1.10 42% 23% 47% -4 0 0.95 34% 1.0 .34 13% .21 77% .16 1.13 75% 50% 41% +13 +3 1.34 24% 1.0 .24 25% .45 67% .30
Nov
15		 Mercyhurst C- C+ F F F 38% 43% 20% F F A+ C- A+ F A+ A+ A+ F F A+ F F 32% 28% 40% D+ F F F F C+ F A+ F
1.06 60% 18% 25% -11 -3 0.75 51% 1.0 .51 24% .74 84% .62 1.27 69% 29% 40% +4 -1 1.08 41% 1.7 .69 16% .49 61% .30
Nov
18		 N.C. A&T D- C+ A+ F D 41% 25% 34% D+ D F F F A+ D- C+ D F+ F F C+ F 29% 29% 42% B- F C F F C+ F D F
1.05 60% 53% 24% -1 0 1.00 14% 0.4 .05 7% .26 71% .19 1.14 69% 54% 32% +6 -2 1.11 30% 1.8 .52 20% .49 78% .38
Nov
21		 Old Dominion F D- D- F F 52% 20% 28% B F C+ F F+ D C+ F F+ F D C F F 28% 22% 50% C- F+ F B- F+ F F C- F
0.84 54% 30% 14% -12 +1 0.80 32% 0.6 .20 17% .36 55% .20 1.32 64% 36% 40% +6 -1 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 11% .45 74% .34
Nov
25		 Drexel D B B F C+ 40% 38% 23% F+ C- F F F A B+ C B+ D- F A+ B- C- 45% 12% 43% F D+ F A+ B+ B+ F F F
1.01 63% 44% 18% -1 -2 0.96 21% 0.6 .12 11% .36 76% .28 1.09 68% 20% 33% +2 +2 1.10 41% 0.4 .18 23% .52 81% .42
Dec
6		 Longwood D+ D- A+ F D- 44% 19% 37% C D F+ D+ D- C C+ A+ A+ F+ C+ A+ F D+ 46% 18% 36% F+ D+ C- F F C F A- F
1.07 54% 70% 25% -1 +1 1.02 21% 0.9 .18 19% .36 91% .33 1.12 56% 14% 43% -1 +1 1.03 33% 1.6 .53 20% .74 66% .49
Dec
9		 DePaul F F F F F 26% 38% 36% F F A+ F F F A+ A- A+ F F A+ F F 38% 17% 45% D+ F B- F D- F+ F F F
0.72 27% 25% 20% -21 -3 0.55 45% 0.3 .13 30% .65 77% .50 1.36 88% 14% 42% +13 0 1.29 28% 1.6 .44 13% .63 78% .49
Dec
13		 Niagara C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 29% 47% F A+ A+ F+ A F A+ A A+ F+ D+ F B C- 50% 8% 42% F D+ A F F F F C- F
1.21 78% 73% 44% +22 -2 1.42 56% 0.9 .50 34% .48 86% .41 1.09 58% 50% 30% -1 +2 1.04 14% 2.8 .38 13% .33 74% .24
Dec
19		 California F C+ B F F 35% 29% 35% D- F F A D- F+ B+ F C+ F D- A F F 50% 14% 36% F F A- F F D+ D F F
0.72 59% 43% 6% -13 -1 0.73 16% 1.2 .19 20% .34 58% .20 1.40 68% 29% 50% +12 +2 1.30 22% 2.6 .57 13% .38 96% .36
Dec
21		 San Francisco D- A+ D C C+ 15% 39% 46% F D+ F A+ C- F A- D- B F F B+ A+ C 42% 23% 35% B- C F F F C- F B- F
0.95 71% 33% 33% 0 -4 0.93 18% 1.5 .26 18% .34 68% .23 1.39 83% 30% 20% +1 0 1.05 47% 1.5 .70 15% .78 69% .54
Dec
23		 Loyola Marymount F F F F F 32% 49% 19% F F A+ D+ B+ F A- F C+ F+ D F D- F 44% 9% 47% F F F C- F C+ F A F
0.80 33% 22% 22% -19 -4 0.55 43% 1.0 .41 24% .36 63% .23 1.19 65% 75% 38% +9 +2 1.24 38% 1.1 .41 19% .49 61% .30
Jan
3		 Maryland Eastern Shore F F B- F F 26% 32% 43% F F F F F F C- D- D C D A+ A+ A- 55% 13% 32% F B- D F F+ F F B+ F
0.73 42% 40% 20% -12 -2 0.72 19% 0.6 .11 22% .31 69% .21 0.99 62% 0% 20% -10 +2 0.87 32% 1.1 .35 18% .49 67% .33
Jan
10		 South Carolina St. D- B F+ F F+ 48% 20% 33% D+ F+ D- F F A A F C D F D A+ D 40% 28% 33% F D- F F F A+ F A+ C+
1.08 68% 33% 20% -3 +1 0.98 31% 0.9 .28 12% .48 61% .29 1.01 71% 42% 21% 0 -1 1.00 38% 1.3 .50 27% .39 47% .18
Jan
12		 NC Central D A F B+ C- 33% 27% 40% F+ D+ D+ F F B- A+ D A+ F F F F F 64% 20% 16% F F A+ A- A F F C- F
1.14 73% 25% 39% +5 -1 1.09 33% 0.5 .17 16% .57 70% .40 1.30 68% 67% 57% +18 +2 1.41 17% 0.8 .13 13% .55 76% .42
Jan
17		 Delaware St. C- F B A+ D+ 30% 26% 44% F D F+ D- F B+ A B A+ F B+ F A+ F+ 43% 26% 30% F F F F+ F F F C- F
1.09 44% 43% 42% +2 -1 1.04 24% 1.0 .24 15% .43 74% .32 1.08 45% 75% 21% -2 0 0.98 32% 0.9 .29 15% .63 69% .43
Jan
24		 Howard D F D C F 48% 22% 30% C- F A- A+ A+ D+ A+ A A+ B+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 51% 24% 25% C+ A+ F F+ F C+ F D- F
0.96 28% 31% 33% -17 +1 0.70 40% 1.4 .58 21% .45 79% .36 0.95 32% 31% 14% -22 +1 0.58 53% 1.2 .66 21% .63 80% .50
Jan
26		 Norfolk St. D+ C+ C+ C+ C 34% 20% 46% D- C- F A+ F D+ B+ A- A- C B F A+ A+ 62% 9% 29% F A D F F F D- A- C-
1.04 65% 40% 35% +3 0 1.08 12% 1.5 .18 18% .42 77% .32 1.03 47% 60% 12% -15 +3 0.79 34% 1.3 .45 12% .40 59% .24
Jan
31		 Coppin St. C A- F D- F+ 34% 28% 38% F+ F C- A+ A D A+ D- A+ F+ D A F F 48% 23% 29% F+ F F A+ C F+ F A+ F
1.17 71% 29% 32% 0 -1 1.00 34% 1.6 .54 18% .61 71% .44 1.05 60% 25% 40% +1 0 1.04 37% 0.7 .27 18% .57 57% .32
Feb
7		 Maryland Eastern Shore C B F+ C- C- 41% 29% 31% D- D+ D+ D- D A+ A A- A+ F+ C A A+ B 51% 22% 27% F+ B- F A C F F F F
1.18 65% 29% 33% 0 -1 1.00 29% 1.0 .29 9% .41 80% .33 1.06 56% 27% 23% -8 +1 0.88 38% 0.7 .25 13% .36 86% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
16		 NC Central D- F F A+ F 41% 21% 38% C- F A F F D+ A C+ A- D- A+ D+ F D- 48% 22% 30% D D- D- F F A- F F+ F
1.04 48% 17% 43% -4 0 0.95 47% 0.5 .23 19% .39 74% .29 1.10 41% 40% 50% 0 +1 1.02 33% 1.5 .52 22% .44 80% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 3.0 11.6 3.2 17.7 1st
2nd 0.1 8.7 26.8 4.1 39.7 2nd
3rd 2.5 18.9 2.9 24.3 3rd
4th 0.1 8.0 4.5 12.7 4th
5th 1.3 3.2 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 1.0 0.1 1.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
Total 2.5 13.8 32.2 32.6 15.7 3.2 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 100.0% 3.2    3.2
10-4 73.8% 11.6    3.4 8.0 0.1
9-5 9.1% 3.0    0.0 0.6 1.7 0.6 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 17.7% 17.7 6.6 8.6 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 3.2% 13.8% 13.8% 16.0 0.4 2.7
10-4 15.7% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 1.7 14.0
9-5 32.6% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 1.8 30.8
8-6 32.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 1.2 31.0
7-7 13.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 13.5
6-8 2.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.5
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 16.0 94.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6%
Lose Out 1.7%