West Virginia
Big 12
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.5#23
Expected Predictive Rating+11.3#45
Pace69.7#130
Improvement-1.3#324

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#18
First Shot+5.0#45
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#17
Layup/Dunks+0.2#164
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#63
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#226
Freethrows+3.3#10
Improvement-0.6#284

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#39
First Shot+3.5#74
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#27
Layups/Dunks+2.2#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#67
Freethrows-1.3#275
Improvement-0.7#285
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.5% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 9.6% 12.1% 3.2%
Top 6 Seed 25.1% 30.4% 12.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.4% 68.6% 50.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 59.7% 65.3% 46.0%
Average Seed 7.6 7.3 8.7
.500 or above 92.2% 96.3% 82.1%
.500 or above in Conference 11.4% 14.8% 2.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.3% 7.0% 25.5%
First Four10.7% 10.1% 12.3%
First Round59.2% 64.7% 45.7%
Second Round38.6% 43.0% 27.6%
Sweet Sixteen18.3% 20.8% 12.0%
Elite Eight8.5% 9.6% 5.7%
Final Four3.8% 4.4% 2.4%
Championship Game1.6% 1.9% 1.0%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.4%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Home) - 71.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 102 - 10
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 12
Quad 24 - 110 - 13
Quad 31 - 011 - 13
Quad 46 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 290   Mount St. Mary's W 76-58 97%     1 - 0 +8.4 +2.1 +6.5
  Nov 11, 2022 64   @ Pittsburgh W 81-56 59%     2 - 0 +36.1 +16.6 +20.6
  Nov 15, 2022 278   Morehead St. W 75-57 97%     3 - 0 +9.1 -3.5 +12.4
  Nov 18, 2022 148   Penn W 92-58 91%     4 - 0 +32.3 +19.2 +14.4
  Nov 24, 2022 4   Purdue L 68-80 33%     4 - 1 +6.1 +4.5 +1.3
  Nov 25, 2022 247   Portland St. W 89-71 94%     5 - 1 +13.5 +6.1 +6.0
  Nov 27, 2022 40   Florida W 84-55 59%     6 - 1 +40.2 +13.3 +24.4
  Dec 03, 2022 19   @ Xavier L 74-84 38%     6 - 2 +6.6 +4.5 +2.3
  Dec 07, 2022 212   Navy W 85-64 95%     7 - 2 +16.2 +18.1 +0.1
  Dec 10, 2022 71   UAB W 81-70 79%     8 - 2 +16.1 +6.9 +8.8
  Dec 18, 2022 183   Buffalo W 96-78 93%     9 - 2 +14.7 +12.3 +0.7
  Dec 22, 2022 313   Stony Brook W 75-64 98%     10 - 2 +0.1 +2.7 -1.7
  Dec 31, 2022 28   @ Kansas St. L 76-82 OT 42%     10 - 3 0 - 1 +9.5 +0.9 +9.5
  Jan 02, 2023 35   @ Oklahoma St. L 60-67 46%     10 - 4 0 - 2 +7.7 +0.6 +6.8
  Jan 07, 2023 7   Kansas L 62-76 49%     10 - 5 0 - 3 -0.1 -2.5 +2.2
  Jan 11, 2023 14   Baylor L 78-83 56%     10 - 6 0 - 4 +7.0 +7.5 -0.5
  Jan 14, 2023 43   @ Oklahoma L 76-77 51%     10 - 7 0 - 5 +12.3 +16.5 -4.3
  Jan 18, 2023 15   TCU W 74-65 56%     11 - 7 1 - 5 +20.9 +9.9 +11.3
  Jan 21, 2023 10   Texas L 61-69 52%     11 - 8 1 - 6 +5.1 -7.9 +13.2
  Jan 25, 2023 53   @ Texas Tech W 76-61 54%     12 - 8 2 - 6 +27.6 +13.1 +15.1
  Jan 28, 2023 27   Auburn W 80-77 63%     13 - 8 +13.1 +12.4 +0.7
  Jan 31, 2023 15   @ TCU L 72-76 35%     13 - 9 2 - 7 +13.4 +10.9 +2.4
  Feb 04, 2023 43   Oklahoma W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 08, 2023 22   Iowa St. W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 11, 2023 10   @ Texas L 72-77 31%    
  Feb 13, 2023 14   @ Baylor L 74-78 35%    
  Feb 18, 2023 53   Texas Tech W 74-68 73%    
  Feb 20, 2023 35   Oklahoma St. W 71-67 66%    
  Feb 25, 2023 7   @ Kansas L 71-77 28%    
  Feb 27, 2023 22   @ Iowa St. L 66-69 38%    
  Mar 04, 2023 28   Kansas St. W 75-72 64%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.9 3.8 0.1 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 9.7 10.2 1.1 23.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 5.4 14.9 13.5 2.8 0.1 37.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.2 7.8 5.5 1.0 0.0 18.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.1 10th
Total 0.1 1.6 6.1 14.6 22.9 25.0 18.4 8.6 2.4 0.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 14.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.3% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 1.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 2.4% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 2.9 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 100.0%
9-9 8.6% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 4.2 0.0 0.1 1.8 3.6 2.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 18.4% 99.1% 10.6% 88.4% 6.1 0.1 1.2 4.6 6.6 3.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.0%
7-11 25.0% 85.4% 9.4% 76.0% 8.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 4.7 4.8 4.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 3.6 83.9%
6-12 22.9% 45.5% 8.5% 37.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.7 5.9 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.5 40.5%
5-13 14.6% 11.2% 7.3% 3.9% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 12.9 4.2%
4-14 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 5.7 0.0%
3-15 1.6% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.5
2-16 0.1% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 63.4% 9.2% 54.2% 7.6 0.2 0.9 3.1 5.4 7.3 8.3 6.6 6.1 5.7 7.6 9.1 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 36.6 59.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.7 40.7 52.7 6.0 0.7
Lose Out 0.1% 4.1% 16.0 4.1