Stonehill
Northeast
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.0#340
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#295
Pace68.3#175
Improvement-1.6#337

Offense
Total Offense-6.8#341
First Shot-1.7#244
After Offensive Rebound-5.1#363
Layup/Dunks-2.2#273
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#51
Freethrows+0.4#145
Improvement-2.5#363

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#303
First Shot-3.2#279
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#284
Layups/Dunks-0.8#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#323
Freethrows+0.6#136
Improvement+1.0#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 5.9% 10.0% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 93.6% 98.8% 87.5%
Conference Champion 18.4% 28.2% 6.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 54.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 412 - 1112 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 6   @ Connecticut L 54-85 1%     0 - 1 -11.0 -13.1 +4.2
  Nov 10, 2022 133   Quinnipiac L 95-102 17%     0 - 2 -7.9 +16.6 -24.0
  Nov 12, 2022 237   @ Army W 82-77 18%     1 - 2 +3.9 +0.2 +3.3
  Nov 15, 2022 25   @ Providence L 76-100 2%     1 - 3 -8.3 +7.4 -15.0
  Nov 19, 2022 326   Holy Cross W 81-79 44%     2 - 3 -7.4 +1.3 -8.8
  Nov 21, 2022 264   Illinois-Chicago L 71-77 30%     2 - 4 -11.5 -5.4 -5.9
  Nov 22, 2022 132   @ Fordham L 60-71 8%     2 - 5 -6.3 -4.6 -2.3
  Nov 27, 2022 177   @ Umass Lowell L 59-73 11%     2 - 6 -11.5 -9.1 -3.2
  Dec 03, 2022 324   @ Binghamton W 69-66 33%     3 - 6 -3.5 -4.4 +1.0
  Dec 07, 2022 196   Rider L 67-78 25%     3 - 7 -15.1 -8.3 -7.0
  Dec 13, 2022 144   @ Boston College L 56-63 8%     3 - 8 -2.7 -14.7 +12.3
  Dec 19, 2022 89   @ Bradley L 50-79 5%     3 - 9 -20.7 -14.8 -7.1
  Dec 21, 2022 267   @ Valparaiso L 67-77 22%     3 - 10 -12.8 -11.7 -0.3
  Dec 29, 2022 323   @ Sacred Heart W 74-67 33%     4 - 10 1 - 0 +0.6 -2.2 +2.7
  Dec 31, 2022 325   @ St. Francis (PA) L 72-73 33%     4 - 11 1 - 1 -7.5 -3.6 -4.0
  Jan 05, 2023 284   Wagner W 62-58 43%     5 - 11 2 - 1 -5.3 -9.6 +4.5
  Jan 07, 2023 329   Central Connecticut St. W 51-49 56%     6 - 11 3 - 1 -10.7 -17.0 +6.8
  Jan 14, 2023 337   Merrimack L 47-59 59%     6 - 12 3 - 2 -25.4 -20.8 -6.2
  Jan 16, 2023 307   Fairleigh Dickinson L 57-65 49%     6 - 13 3 - 3 -18.7 -20.3 +0.9
  Jan 20, 2023 363   @ LIU Brooklyn W 73-66 67%     7 - 13 4 - 3 -8.6 -1.2 -6.9
  Jan 22, 2023 307   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 70-59 29%     8 - 13 5 - 3 +5.7 -8.2 +14.2
  Jan 25, 2023 360   @ Hartford L 56-73 62%     8 - 14 -31.2 -16.6 -16.6
  Jan 28, 2023 323   Sacred Heart W 82-81 53%     9 - 14 6 - 3 -10.9 +1.3 -12.2
  Feb 02, 2023 325   St. Francis (PA) W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 04, 2023 349   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 66-67 44%    
  Feb 09, 2023 337   @ Merrimack L 59-62 38%    
  Feb 11, 2023 349   St. Francis Brooklyn W 69-65 66%    
  Feb 16, 2023 363   LIU Brooklyn W 77-67 83%    
  Feb 18, 2023 329   @ Central Connecticut St. L 64-68 35%    
  Feb 23, 2023 284   @ Wagner L 60-67 25%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.4 8.7 4.5 0.7 18.4 1st
2nd 0.0 3.6 15.3 6.3 0.7 0.0 25.9 2nd
3rd 0.6 13.2 7.1 0.3 21.1 3rd
4th 0.0 4.7 9.5 0.5 0.0 14.7 4th
5th 0.5 8.2 1.7 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 2.5 3.4 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.3 2.3 0.2 2.7 7th
8th 0.4 0.4 0.8 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.7 5.7 17.1 28.0 27.2 15.4 5.2 0.7 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 96.3% 0.7    0.6 0.1
12-4 86.8% 4.5    3.1 1.4 0.0
11-5 56.9% 8.7    2.8 4.4 1.4 0.1
10-6 16.1% 4.4    0.2 1.2 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 18.4% 18.4 6.7 7.1 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.7% 0.7
12-4 5.2% 5.2
11-5 15.4% 15.4
10-6 27.2% 27.2
9-7 28.0% 28.0
8-8 17.1% 17.1
7-9 5.7% 5.7
6-10 0.7% 0.7
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7%
Lose Out 0.7%