Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.6#103
Expected Predictive Rating+10.9#56
Pace73.2#79
Improvement-0.1#179

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#85
First Shot+7.1#26
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#348
Layup/Dunks+1.1#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#213
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#28
Freethrows+0.6#135
Improvement+0.4#142

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#137
First Shot-1.6#234
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#33
Layups/Dunks-0.1#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#244
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#202
Freethrows-0.7#232
Improvement-0.4#215
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.4% 19.6% 12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.2 12.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 94.3% 82.3%
Conference Champion 14.7% 16.6% 5.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round18.4% 19.6% 12.9%
Second Round2.9% 3.3% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Away) - 82.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 38 - 39 - 5
Quad 414 - 122 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 205 Old Dominion W 87-72 84%     1 - 0 +9.0 +5.4 +2.6
  Sat, Nov 15 322 @Air Force W 76-61 85%     2 - 0 +8.3 +5.5 +3.5
  Thu, Nov 20 328 Mercyhurst W 76-71 94%     3 - 0 -7.9 +3.3 -10.8
  Sun, Nov 23 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 111-84 96%     4 - 0 +11.3 +15.9 -8.4
  Wed, Nov 26 291 UNC Greensboro W 82-71 86%     5 - 0 +3.9 +2.4 +1.2
  Sat, Dec 6 335 Maine W 93-61 95%     6 - 0 +18.2 +16.4 +1.3
  Wed, Dec 10 219 @UNC Asheville W 90-87 OT 69%     7 - 0 +2.4 +6.9 -4.8
  Sat, Dec 13 243 @Eastern Kentucky W 79-69 73%     8 - 0 +8.2 +7.2 +1.4
  Tue, Dec 16 153 @Wright St. W 83-76 54%     9 - 0 +10.5 +9.5 +0.8
  Sat, Dec 20 307 @Ball St. W 77-67 83%    
  Tue, Dec 30 125 @Bowling Green L 76-77 47%    
  Sat, Jan 3 66 Akron L 87-88 47%    
  Tue, Jan 6 249 Western Michigan W 85-72 88%    
  Fri, Jan 9 167 @Toledo W 83-81 58%    
  Tue, Jan 13 326 Central Michigan W 85-68 94%    
  Sat, Jan 17 209 Buffalo W 84-73 84%    
  Tue, Jan 20 132 @Kent St. L 85-86 50%    
  Tue, Jan 27 154 Massachusetts W 84-77 75%    
  Sat, Jan 31 323 Northern Illinois W 88-71 94%    
  Tue, Feb 3 209 @Buffalo W 81-76 66%    
  Sat, Feb 14 177 Ohio W 86-77 78%    
  Tue, Feb 17 154 @Massachusetts W 81-80 54%    
  Sat, Feb 21 125 Bowling Green W 79-74 68%    
  Tue, Feb 24 224 @Eastern Michigan W 77-72 69%    
  Sat, Feb 28 249 @Western Michigan W 82-75 73%    
  Fri, Mar 6 177 @Ohio W 83-80 60%    
Projected Record 21 - 5 12 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 5.0 3.3 1.0 14.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.7 8.1 7.8 3.0 0.4 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 8.0 5.9 1.4 0.1 19.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 6.5 4.2 0.7 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.8 3.6 0.6 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.4 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.4 0.5 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 4.1 7.8 11.1 14.6 16.7 16.2 13.0 8.1 3.7 1.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.1
16-2 88.0% 3.3    2.4 0.9 0.0
15-3 62.1% 5.0    2.8 2.0 0.3
14-4 29.5% 3.8    1.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.4% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.7% 14.7 7.5 5.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.0% 53.1% 46.9% 6.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 11.5%
16-2 3.7% 41.3% 40.9% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.0 2.2 0.8%
15-3 8.1% 34.7% 34.7% 11.8 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.2 5.3
14-4 13.0% 26.9% 26.9% 12.1 0.5 2.3 0.7 0.0 9.5
13-5 16.2% 22.5% 22.5% 12.3 0.2 2.4 1.0 0.1 12.6
12-6 16.7% 16.2% 16.2% 12.6 0.0 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 14.0
11-7 14.6% 12.5% 12.5% 12.8 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 12.8
10-8 11.1% 10.6% 10.6% 13.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 9.9
9-9 7.8% 6.7% 6.7% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.3
8-10 4.1% 3.5% 3.5% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.9
7-11 2.1% 0.9% 0.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
6-12 1.1% 1.1
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.4% 18.3% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.5 9.4 5.0 1.1 0.1 81.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 9.6 1.4 9.6 4.8 11.0 8.2 20.5 43.2 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 12.6% 10.8 2.3 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 12.2% 11.0 12.2