Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.9 85
Expected Predictive Rating +18.3 20
Pace 73.4 59
Improvement +2.4 94

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 55 A- D+ B- B C+
Defense C 153 D+ B C+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 195 A- 67% 22 +3.4 67
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 272 C+ 40% 122 -1.1 241
Three Pointers 45% 103 B+ 38% 33 +4.6 43
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 128 A- +6.2 23
1st FG Attempt A- 1.16 25
Second Chance D- 23.7% 341 B+ 1.17 36 D+ 0.28 257
Turnovers B- 15.2% 81
Freethrows B- 0.33 108 B+ 77% 36 B 0.25 63
Total Offense B +6.3 55

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 37% 323 B- 8.9% 76
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 12% 348 C+ 4.7% 157
Three Pointers B- 88% 102 C 1.0% 213
Total D+ 51% 277 B- 4.6% 75

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 248 D+ 62% 285 +0.2 191
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 133 D 42% 300 +1.2 287
Three Pointers 42% 152 C 34% 203 +0.6 215
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 118 D+ +2.3 269
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.06 244
Second Chance C+ 29.1% 127 B+ 0.89 20 B 0.26 52
Turnovers C+ 17.5% 140
Freethrows B- 0.28 96 D 75% 321 C+ 0.21 142
Total Defense C +0.6 153

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 64 D+ 8.6% 272
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 100 C- 3.8% 240
Three Pointers C+ 82% 108 C+ 1.3% 94
Total B- 50% 75 D+ 4.5% 266

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.3 76 17.0 143
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 245 0.14 73
Improvement +1.2 #126 +1.2 #119

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 99 83 66
Conference Record 16 - 2 17 - 1 18 - 0
Conference Finish 2 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42% 44% 36%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7% 8% 4%
Average Seed 11.5 11.4 11.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 90% 95% 71%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 5% 2%
First Round39% 41% 34%
Second Round6% 7% 5%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Away) - 78.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 02 - 0
Quad 310 - 112 - 1
Quad 417 - 029 - 1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 239 Old Dominion W 87 - 72 90% -3  34% 1 - 0 B- +8 C+ +3 A F D+ B +4 F+ A- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 347 @Air Force W 76 - 61 93% +10  99% 2 - 0 B- +5 C +2 B+ F D+ B +4 B B- D-
 Thu, Nov 20 301 Mercyhurst W 76 - 71 94% +5  95% 3 - 0 D+ -6 C+ +2 C+ D B- D- -8 F C B
 Sun, Nov 23 328 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 111 - 84 96% +16  88% 4 - 0 B+ +13 A +13 A+ F A C- -3 A- F F
 Wed, Nov 26 300 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 71 91% -1  37% 5 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -3 C F C- B+ +6 B- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 346 Maine W 93 - 61 97% +21  99% 6 - 0 A- +16 A +13 B A+ D- B- +3 D+ D- A+
 Wed, Dec 10 226 @UNC Asheville W 90 - 87 OT 76% +6  70% 7 - 0 C+ +2 B +6 B+ F A+ D+ -4 F B- D
 Sat, Dec 13 278 @Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 69 84% +9  91% 8 - 0 B- +6 C+ +2 C+ C+ B B +4 C B B+
 Tue, Dec 16 149 @Wright St. W 83 - 76 64% +8  96% 9 - 0 B +10 B- +5 A+ F B- B +5 B A D-
 Sat, Dec 20 313 @Ball St. W 86 - 77 89% +3  67% 10 - 0 1 - 0 C+ +3 A- +10 A- D D+ D- -7 F A F
 Tue, Dec 30 166 @Bowling Green W 93 - 83 66% +13  82% 11 - 0 2 - 0 B+ +13 A +14 A+ B+ D- C- -2 D C+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 76 Akron W 76 - 73 59% -1  34% 12 - 0 3 - 0 B- +8 C- -1 F A D A +9 A C- A
 Tue, Jan 6 284 Western Michigan W 87 - 76 93% +6  90% 13 - 0 4 - 0 C +1 C- -1 B- C F C+ +1 C A D+
 Fri, Jan 9 169 @Toledo W 87 - 73 67% +17  99% 14 - 0 5 - 0 A- +16 A- +11 A C- A- B+ +6 B A C
 Tue, Jan 13 274 Central Michigan W 100 - 61 93% +17  98% 15 - 0 6 - 0 A+ +29 A+ +19 A+ B A- A +10 C+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 213 Buffalo W 105 - 102 OT 88% -0  44% 16 - 0 7 - 0 C- -3 B +7 A+ F A F -10 F A B-
 Tue, Jan 20 145 @Kent St. W 107 - 101 OT 61% +6  79% 17 - 0 8 - 0 B +10 A+ +17 A+ F A+ D- -8 D- D- C+
 Tue, Jan 27 182 Massachusetts W 86 - 84 85% -3  15% 18 - 0 9 - 0 C- -2 A +11 C- A+ A- F -14 F+ D- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 319 Northern Illinois W 85 - 61 96% +3  49% 19 - 0 10 - 0 B +11 C+ +2 B- F A A- +8 D A+ C+
 Tue, Feb 3 213 @Buffalo W 73 - 71 74% +4  81% 20 - 0 11 - 0 C+ +2 D+ -3 A- F D+ B+ +5 D- A+ A
 Sat, Feb 7 173 @Marshall W 90 - 74 68% +13  99% 21 - 0 A +18 A +12 A- A+ D+ B+ +6 B B+ D+
 Fri, Feb 13 208 Ohio W 90 - 74 88% +10  94% 22 - 0 12 - 0 B +10 B+ +9 B+ A A- C+ +1 C+ B F+
 Tue, Feb 17 182 @Massachusetts W 86 - 77 69% +5  91% 23 - 0 13 - 0 B +11 A- +10 A- F A+ C+ +1 F A- C-
 Fri, Feb 20 166 Bowling Green W 91 - 77 83% +10  90% 24 - 0 14 - 0 B +11 A- +11 A+ C+ A- C -1 C B- C-
 Tue, Feb 24 244 @Eastern Michigan W 80 - 72 78%
 Fri, Feb 27 284 @Western Michigan W 88 - 77 85%
 Tue, Mar 3 169 Toledo W 88 - 78 84%
 Fri, Mar 6 208 @Ohio W 86 - 79 74%
Totals 27 - 1 17 - 1 +7 B +6 A+ A- C+ C +1 B+ B+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B A- C+ B+ A- 38% 29% 45% C+ A- D- B+ D+ B- B- B+ B C D+ D C D+ 37% 22% 42% C+ D+ C+ B+ B C+ B- D C+
1.18 67% 40% 38% +6 0 1.16 24% 1.2 .28 15% .33 77% .25 1.08 62% 42% 34% +2 0 1.06 29% 0.9 .26 18% .28 75% .25
Nov
3		 Old Dominion C+ A D+ D B+ 55% 6% 39% A+ A D- F F D+ A A A+ B C+ D+ F F 33% 27% 41% C F+ A B- A- A+ C F D+
1.16 71% 33% 30% +5 +3 1.18 25% 0.6 .16 16% .43 81% .35 0.96 56% 38% 45% +6 -1 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 25% .29 81% .23
Nov
15		 Air Force C D+ A+ A A- 26% 20% 54% D+ B+ C F F D+ F F F B A+ F B+ B+ 48% 15% 37% D+ B A- D B- D- F C F+
1.14 57% 64% 41% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.6 .19 16% .09 60% .05 0.91 41% 57% 29% -8 +1 0.89 17% 1.2 .19 18% .40 64% .25
Nov
20		 Mercyhurst C+ A+ F F C+ 42% 18% 40% C- C+ D- C- D B- A+ A+ A+ D- F F D+ F 28% 28% 45% C- F D- A- C B D B- D+
1.16 74% 25% 28% +1 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 17% .57 84% .48 1.08 69% 54% 33% +7 -2 1.13 31% 0.9 .28 18% .24 69% .17
Nov
23		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A B C+ A+ A+ 56% 9% 35% A A+ F C F A A- A+ A+ C- A+ C- A- A+ 44% 21% 34% D- A- B- F F F D F F
1.36 66% 40% 50% +13 +3 1.33 24% 1.1 .28 11% .44 88% .39 1.03 41% 38% 29% -10 0 0.82 24% 1.6 .38 13% .35 84% .30
Nov
26		 UNC Greensboro D+ A+ C+ D- C- 33% 9% 58% B+ C F F F C- B A B+ B+ B- D+ A- B 33% 22% 46% C B- D F F A+ F F+ F
1.14 78% 40% 31% +4 +1 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 14% .31 79% .24 0.99 53% 40% 29% -5 -1 0.91 30% 1.3 .39 24% .45 76% .35
Dec
6		 Maine A C F A+ B 39% 14% 47% B- B A+ A+ A+ D- F A+ D+ B- C+ A- D D+ 40% 22% 38% C D+ D+ F D- A+ A- B- B+
1.31 60% 29% 42% +5 +1 1.14 50% 1.5 .74 21% .23 85% .20 0.86 56% 30% 35% -2 0 0.98 21% 1.3 .27 28% .25 62% .16
Dec
10		 UNC Asheville B A D+ B+ A- 36% 22% 41% D B+ F A+ F A+ B- A- B D+ D- D- F F 29% 34% 36% C- F A+ F B- D C- F D
1.15 71% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 12% 1.3 .15 6% .33 75% .25 1.12 65% 45% 43% +9 -2 1.16 10% 2.3 .24 15% .33 77% .26
Dec
13		 Eastern Kentucky C+ B C+ B C+ 38% 20% 43% C C+ F A+ C+ B F F F B B+ B D C- 13% 31% 56% A+ C F A+ B B+ F F+ F
1.17 67% 45% 38% +7 0 1.16 23% 1.6 .35 13% .15 33% .05 1.02 50% 33% 37% 0 -3 0.96 43% 0.7 .30 21% .41 77% .32
Dec
16		 Wright St. B- A+ F A+ A+ 48% 15% 38% B+ A+ F F F B- A+ F A B F B A+ B+ 46% 21% 32% C- B C+ A+ A D- F+ D- F
1.15 74% 14% 56% +16 +1 1.38 10% 0.0 .00 15% .46 61% .28 1.05 69% 33% 17% -4 0 0.95 31% 0.8 .23 14% .38 79% .30
Dec
20		 Ball St. A- D+ F A+ A- 33% 21% 46% C- A- F A+ D D+ A+ A+ A+ D- F F C+ F 35% 30% 35% A F A+ B A F C F D+
1.23 56% 20% 55% +10 0 1.21 20% 1.4 .28 20% .39 95% .38 1.10 68% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.11 13% 0.8 .09 10% .29 78% .22
Dec
30		 Bowling Green A A- A+ A+ A+ 44% 17% 40% C+ A+ C+ A B+ D- A A+ A+ C- F F A+ D- 47% 18% 35% B- D C C+ C+ C D- B D+
1.23 67% 50% 47% +14 +1 1.31 31% 1.3 .38 21% .40 92% .37 1.10 69% 50% 26% +3 +1 1.11 28% 0.8 .22 17% .37 70% .26
Jan
3		 Akron C- C F F F 25% 10% 65% C F C- A+ A D A+ A+ A+ A D+ B+ A+ A+ 32% 11% 57% C A C D+ C- A A F B
1.06 58% 20% 26% -10 0 0.83 31% 1.5 .47 21% .53 83% .44 1.02 65% 33% 27% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.3 .43 21% .18 90% .16
Jan
6		 Western Michigan C- A+ C+ F B- 43% 11% 47% B- B- B- D- C F A+ A A+ C+ C F A+ B- 52% 19% 30% F C C A+ A D+ F+ C F+
1.18 80% 40% 27% +5 +2 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 19% .57 79% .45 1.03 54% 50% 25% -4 +1 0.96 30% 0.6 .19 15% .35 73% .25
Jan
9		 Toledo A- A A+ A A+ 39% 13% 48% C+ A F+ B+ C- A- F A+ F+ B+ A- B+ F C+ 28% 41% 31% A+ B C- A+ A C D- F F
1.25 73% 57% 41% +13 +1 1.30 28% 1.1 .31 14% .13 88% .12 1.05 47% 36% 47% +2 -3 1.00 30% 0.6 .18 16% .34 85% .29
Jan
13		 Central Michigan A+ A A+ A+ A+ 37% 16% 47% C- A+ F A+ B A- A+ A+ A+ A B- D B C+ 33% 35% 33% A- C+ B- A+ A+ B+ B+ C+ B
1.43 72% 50% 48% +17 0 1.37 24% 2.0 .48 13% .46 89% .41 0.87 53% 44% 29% -2 -2 0.94 26% 0.4 .11 21% .22 67% .15
Jan
17		 Buffalo B A+ F A+ A+ 48% 10% 43% B+ A+ F F+ F A A F B- F D+ F F F 35% 25% 40% A- F B- A+ A B- C F D+
1.26 76% 17% 46% +14 +2 1.34 15% 0.8 .12 13% .36 62% .22 1.22 62% 53% 50% +15 -1 1.30 24% 0.8 .18 18% .34 83% .28
Jan
20		 Kent St. A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 40% 15% 45% C+ A+ D- F F A+ A+ F B+ D- F+ D- B- D- 43% 13% 45% D- D- F B- D- C+ F F+ F
1.30 84% 67% 32% +13 +1 1.31 24% 0.7 .16 7% .44 65% .29 1.23 67% 43% 32% +3 +1 1.11 44% 1.0 .44 19% .47 81% .38
Jan
27		 Massachusetts A C- A C- C- 27% 9% 64% C+ C- B A+ A+ A- A+ C+ A+ F D F F F 27% 33% 39% A+ F+ D- D+ D- F+ B F C-
1.28 58% 50% 32% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.7 .58 13% .65 74% .48 1.25 64% 53% 40% +10 -2 1.18 36% 1.3 .45 15% .30 76% .23
Jan
31		 Northern Illinois C+ A- A+ F B- 42% 12% 46% C+ B- D+ F F A C- A C+ A- F C- A D 39% 16% 45% C+ D A+ A+ A+ C+ B A+ A
1.16 71% 71% 27% +5 +1 1.14 29% 0.5 .14 12% .31 80% .25 0.83 70% 38% 26% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.5 .09 23% .30 53% .16
Feb
3		 Buffalo D+ A+ A+ F+ A- 43% 20% 37% C- A- F F F D+ F F F B+ F C+ F F+ 35% 17% 48% C+ D- F A+ A+ A C D C-
1.07 78% 64% 30% +12 0 1.26 18% 0.4 .07 19% .11 50% .05 1.04 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 36% 0.2 .06 22% .34 78% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Marshall A A+ F A A- 40% 23% 36% C+ A- A- A+ A+ D+ C+ B+ B- B+ F A A+ B+ 32% 20% 48% D B F A+ B+ D+ D+ A+ B-
1.28 79% 18% 41% +8 0 1.17 41% 1.6 .66 18% .37 76% .28 1.05 78% 27% 26% -2 0 0.98 39% 0.7 .28 16% .29 59% .17
Feb
13		 Ohio B+ B- F A+ B+ 48% 20% 31% C+ B+ F+ A+ A A- A+ C+ A+ C+ C+ F A+ C 34% 26% 40% B- C+ A+ F+ B F+ C B+ B-
1.25 62% 27% 47% +6 +1 1.15 27% 1.9 .50 13% .45 75% .33 1.03 56% 64% 24% 0 -1 1.00 19% 1.1 .22 13% .32 65% .21
Feb
17		 Massachusetts A- C A+ A A 37% 18% 45% C- A- F A F A+ A+ C+ A+ C+ D- A+ F F 40% 30% 30% B+ F A B- A- C- B+ A+ A
1.22 61% 56% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 1.3 .17 10% .52 73% .38 1.09 65% 27% 60% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.1 .28 18% .28 56% .16
Feb
20		 Bowling Green A- C+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 13% 54% C A+ D A+ C+ A- A+ D- A- C B A+ F+ C 43% 14% 43% C+ C B B- B- C- A- C B+
1.23 59% 57% 43% +10 +1 1.23 24% 1.4 .32 15% .43 67% .29 1.04 52% 25% 40% -1 +1 1.03 24% 0.8 .19 16% .24 73% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 8.0 39.0 42.2 89.6 1st
2nd 0.2 2.5 7.6 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.3 2.9 15.6 39.0 42.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 42.2    42.2
17-1 100.0% 39.0    20.0 19.0
16-2 51.4% 8.0    1.9 6.2
15-3 11.4% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1
14-4 0.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 89.6% 89.6 64.1 25.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 42.2% 48.0% 41.2% 6.8% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 12.8 6.9 0.1 22.0 11.6%
17-1 39.0% 40.6% 37.7% 3.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 6.8 8.8 0.2 23.2 4.8%
16-2 15.6% 32.3% 30.8% 1.6% 11.7 0.0 1.6 3.3 0.2 0.0 10.6 2.2%
15-3 2.9% 26.3% 25.8% 0.5% 11.9 0.1 0.5 0.1 2.1 0.6%
14-4 0.3% 20.5% 20.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 42.0% 37.7% 4.3% 11.5 58.0 6.9%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 17.4% 100.0% 11.4 0.0 0.3 2.3 59.5 37.5 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.7% 12.0% 11.1 0.2 9.9 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.2% 11.4% 11.1 0.0 10.3 1.1
Lose Out 0.1%