Canisius
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.2#345
Expected Predictive Rating-19.1#362
Pace67.1#233
Improvement+0.0#185

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#313
First Shot-0.5#187
After Offensive Rebound-4.7#357
Layup/Dunks-4.5#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#87
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#37
Freethrows-2.9#320
Improvement-2.5#339

Defense
Total Defense-7.1#357
First Shot-7.6#360
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#144
Layups/Dunks-3.6#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#278
Freethrows-2.0#296
Improvement+2.5#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.1% 10.4% 2.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 55.9% 42.0% 66.4%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Siena (Home) - 43.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 10
Quad 45 - 166 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 23   @ Arizona L 64-93 1%     0 - 1 -12.0 -3.4 -7.8
  Nov 09, 2024 88   St. Bonaventure L 78-87 8%     0 - 2 -5.9 +17.1 -24.1
  Nov 13, 2024 361   @ Mercyhurst L 52-62 48%     0 - 3 -21.7 -18.2 -4.8
  Nov 16, 2024 273   SIU Edwardsville L 58-76 28%     0 - 4 -24.1 -13.1 -11.8
  Nov 17, 2024 271   @ Western Michigan L 69-92 19%     0 - 5 -26.0 -4.8 -21.6
  Nov 19, 2024 19   @ Maryland L 37-108 1%     0 - 6 -53.4 -29.3 -18.1
  Nov 23, 2024 164   Brown L 76-83 21%     0 - 7 -10.6 +9.9 -21.4
  Nov 27, 2024 275   @ Robert Morris L 64-72 20%     0 - 8 -11.2 -5.8 -5.7
  Dec 06, 2024 222   Merrimack L 52-60 28%     0 - 9 0 - 1 -14.3 -16.2 +1.4
  Dec 08, 2024 302   Siena L 67-69 43%    
  Dec 14, 2024 211   Maine L 64-71 26%    
  Dec 18, 2024 86   @ Loyola Chicago L 61-83 2%    
  Dec 21, 2024 71   @ Bradley L 61-84 2%    
  Jan 05, 2025 269   @ Sacred Heart L 70-79 19%    
  Jan 10, 2025 257   Rider L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 12, 2025 209   St. Peter's L 62-69 26%    
  Jan 16, 2025 274   @ Iona L 66-75 20%    
  Jan 18, 2025 283   @ Fairfield L 67-76 21%    
  Jan 23, 2025 269   Sacred Heart L 73-76 38%    
  Jan 25, 2025 242   Marist L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 31, 2025 308   Niagara L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 06, 2025 245   @ Quinnipiac L 69-80 17%    
  Feb 08, 2025 222   @ Merrimack L 60-72 14%    
  Feb 12, 2025 308   @ Niagara L 66-74 25%    
  Feb 16, 2025 254   Mount St. Mary's L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 21, 2025 242   @ Marist L 62-73 17%    
  Feb 23, 2025 302   @ Siena L 64-72 24%    
  Feb 28, 2025 313   Manhattan L 74-75 46%    
  Mar 02, 2025 274   Iona L 69-72 39%    
  Mar 06, 2025 257   @ Rider L 64-74 19%    
  Mar 08, 2025 209   @ St. Peter's L 59-72 13%    
Projected Record 6 - 25 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 0.9 0.1 2.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.5 2.0 0.3 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.0 1.1 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 3.7 2.5 0.2 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.6 4.2 0.8 0.0 11.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.0 4.0 6.9 5.5 1.5 0.1 19.1 12th
13th 1.2 4.2 8.2 11.1 10.7 6.5 1.8 0.2 43.8 13th
Total 1.2 4.2 8.4 12.1 14.9 15.3 13.3 11.0 8.1 5.4 3.2 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 83.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 33.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 8.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.3% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 0.8% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7
11-9 1.6% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.1 1.6
10-10 3.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 3.1
9-11 5.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.4
8-12 8.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.0
7-13 11.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.0
6-14 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.3
5-15 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.3
4-16 14.9% 14.9
3-17 12.1% 12.1
2-18 8.4% 8.4
1-19 4.2% 4.2
0-20 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%