Loyola Chicago
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#33
Expected Predictive Rating+11.4#48
Pace62.6#328
Improvement-2.5#320

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#36
First Shot+7.7#14
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#296
Layup/Dunks+4.6#48
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#50
Freethrows+0.7#140
Improvement-2.5#332

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#39
First Shot+3.7#63
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#47
Layups/Dunks+3.7#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#181
Freethrows+1.7#92
Improvement+0.0#190
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.7% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 5.8% 8.1% 2.2%
Top 6 Seed 12.8% 17.0% 6.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.0% 72.1% 59.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 32.0% 39.8% 21.3%
Average Seed 9.4 8.9 10.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.8% 99.4%
Conference Champion 74.6% 77.0% 70.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.0% 6.4% 5.4%
First Round64.6% 69.4% 57.1%
Second Round33.1% 37.8% 25.8%
Sweet Sixteen13.4% 15.7% 9.9%
Elite Eight5.2% 6.3% 3.5%
Final Four2.0% 2.5% 1.2%
Championship Game0.7% 0.9% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Away) - 60.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 23 - 24 - 4
Quad 39 - 214 - 6
Quad 411 - 025 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 306   Coppin St. W 103-45 97%     1 - 0 +46.8 +16.1 +25.0
  Nov 13, 2021 213   Florida Gulf Coast W 89-77 93%     2 - 0 +7.1 +10.9 -4.1
  Nov 16, 2021 355   Chicago St. W 92-56 99%     3 - 0 +16.5 +9.0 +6.5
  Nov 20, 2021 261   Illinois-Chicago W 80-63 96%     4 - 0 +8.7 +12.3 -1.8
  Nov 24, 2021 18   Michigan St. L 61-63 41%     4 - 1 +12.1 -1.8 +13.9
  Nov 25, 2021 16   Auburn L 53-62 38%     4 - 2 +6.0 -6.9 +11.9
  Nov 26, 2021 105   Arizona St. W 77-59 76%     5 - 2 +22.4 +17.2 +7.4
  Dec 01, 2021 175   Indiana St. W 88-76 91%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +8.7 +15.7 -6.7
  Dec 04, 2021 90   @ DePaul W 68-64 62%     7 - 2 +12.8 -0.2 +13.1
  Dec 10, 2021 86   @ Vanderbilt W 67-64 61%    
  Dec 19, 2021 252   Norfolk St. W 76-56 97%    
  Dec 22, 2021 70   @ Davidson W 66-64 56%    
  Jan 02, 2022 146   @ Southern Illinois W 64-57 75%    
  Jan 05, 2022 242   @ Illinois St. W 75-62 89%    
  Jan 08, 2022 181   Bradley W 72-56 92%    
  Jan 11, 2022 182   Valparaiso W 73-57 92%    
  Jan 15, 2022 175   @ Indiana St. W 74-65 80%    
  Jan 18, 2022 237   @ Evansville W 67-54 88%    
  Jan 22, 2022 101   Missouri St. W 74-64 82%    
  Jan 25, 2022 146   Southern Illinois W 67-54 89%    
  Jan 30, 2022 72   @ Drake W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 02, 2022 242   Illinois St. W 78-59 96%    
  Feb 06, 2022 101   @ Missouri St. W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 09, 2022 181   @ Bradley W 69-59 80%    
  Feb 13, 2022 127   Northern Iowa W 73-61 87%    
  Feb 16, 2022 182   @ Valparaiso W 70-60 81%    
  Feb 19, 2022 72   Drake W 70-62 76%    
  Feb 23, 2022 237   Evansville W 70-51 95%    
  Feb 26, 2022 127   @ Northern Iowa W 70-64 71%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 3.8 9.7 17.5 20.3 15.8 6.7 74.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.0 5.4 5.1 2.5 0.6 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.5 3.1 5.9 10.2 15.0 20.0 20.8 15.8 6.7 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 6.7    6.7
17-1 100.0% 15.8    15.7 0.1
16-2 97.3% 20.3    18.9 1.4
15-3 87.6% 17.5    13.9 3.5 0.1
14-4 64.8% 9.7    5.9 3.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 37.4% 3.8    1.4 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.0
12-6 11.1% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 74.6% 74.6 62.6 10.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 6.7% 96.9% 71.0% 25.9% 4.7 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 89.2%
17-1 15.8% 91.7% 66.3% 25.4% 7.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 1.3 75.5%
16-2 20.8% 81.2% 58.4% 22.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.8 3.2 4.4 1.9 0.1 0.0 3.9 54.9%
15-3 20.0% 66.7% 50.8% 15.9% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 5.0 3.5 0.4 0.0 6.7 32.4%
14-4 15.0% 53.7% 44.9% 8.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.8 3.6 0.7 0.0 6.9 16.0%
13-5 10.2% 42.2% 38.2% 4.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 0.8 0.1 5.9 6.6%
12-6 5.9% 36.6% 35.6% 1.0% 12.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.8 1.6%
11-7 3.1% 24.9% 24.5% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.5%
10-8 1.5% 20.6% 20.6% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2
9-9 0.5% 21.1% 21.1% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
8-10 0.3% 10.0% 10.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.1% 8.1% 8.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 67.0% 51.5% 15.5% 9.4 0.4 0.8 1.5 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.8 4.5 6.0 8.0 14.8 13.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 33.0 32.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 3.2 10.9 20.4 27.1 29.4 9.1 2.1 0.6 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 97.3% 4.9 4.9 3.8 9.9 22.0 19.8 17.6 14.3 3.8 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 96.8% 5.5 1.3 4.5 4.5 21.2 21.2 17.3 16.7 5.1 0.6 1.3 2.6 0.6