Davidson
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +3.1 114
Results Rating +3.9 105
Consistency 0.19 338
Pace 61.2 349
Improvement -1.4 237

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 138 B- C+ C D C-
Defense C+ 118 C+ C+ B- B- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 295 C 58% 169 -2.2 265
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 230 A- 46% 20 +1.4 99
Three Pointers 45% 87 B 37% 46 +4.4 44
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.2 216 B +3.8 69
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 75
Second Chance C+ 31.2% 162 C+ 1.05 139 C+ 0.33 132
Turnovers from Steals C 9.7% 207
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 173
Turnovers C 16.9% 190
Freethrows C- 0.28 243 F+ 66% 352 D 0.19 308
Total Offense C+ +1.2 138

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 143 C 10.9% 173
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 230 B 2.7% 33
Three Pointers C 84% 187 C- 1.2% 270
Total C+ 57% 147 B- 4.9% 98

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 206 C 58% 183 -0.4 159
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 33 D 42% 306 +3.2 357
Three Pointers 36% 324 B 31% 48 -4.4 22
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.8 57 C+ -0.8 148
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 126
Second Chance C 29.8% 163 C 1.02 164 C+ 0.30 158
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.0% 141
Other Turnovers B- 8.0% 92
Turnovers B- 18.1% 102
Freethrows C 0.31 195 A+ 66% 2 B- 0.20 105
Total Defense C+ +1.9 118

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 133 C+ 12.2% 116
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 47 C 5.3% 139
Three Pointers C+ 82% 135 C 1.0% 140
Total B 48% 39 C+ 6.4% 118

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 276 18.7 344
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 267 0.16 128
Consistency 0.14 280 0.10 51
Improvement -0.7 218 -0.7 231

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 139 117 100
Results Rating Rank 138 110 91
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 11 - 7
Conference Finish 9 7 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.3
.500 or above 97% 100% 96%
.500 or above in Conference 79% 96% 70%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Duquesne (Away) - 36.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 42 - 8
Quad 37 - 49 - 13
Quad 48 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 126 Washington St. W 85 - 69 63% +16  99% 1 - 0 A- +16 B +7 A+ C- F A +9 A+ D- A
 Tue, Nov 11 175 @Charlotte W 62 - 55 54% +8  97% 2 - 0 B +9 C- -2 A- F F+ A+ +13 A+ A D+
 Sat, Nov 15 179 Bowling Green W 91 - 87 76% +9  96% 3 - 0 C -0 B- +5 A+ C- F D -6 B+ F F
 Fri, Nov 21 139 Boston College W 59 - 49 57% +3  69% 4 - 0 B +11 C -0 C+ D B+ A+ +13 B+ B A+
 Sun, Nov 23 29 Utah St. L 60 - 94 14% -17  0% 4 - 1 F -19 F+ -10 C- C F F+ -9 F B A
 Fri, Nov 28 271 N.C. A&T W 90 - 74 87% +9  86% 5 - 1 B- +7 A+ +15 A A A D- -7 F A D
 Thu, Dec 4 348 The Citadel W 79 - 63 95% +9  98% 6 - 1 C -0 C+ +3 D B- A+ C- -2 F B A-
 Sun, Dec 7 39 St. Mary's L 61 - 70 25% -1  42% 6 - 2 C +1 D+ -3 C+ D- B- B- +3 B B C+
 Sat, Dec 13 288 Mercyhurst W 80 - 47 89% +17  98% 7 - 2 A +22 A+ +16 A+ B- B+ A+ +13 C+ A+ B-
 Thu, Dec 18 156 Temple L 63 - 68 72% -6  1% 7 - 3 D+ -8 D- -7 F B B C- -2 B- A+ F+
 Mon, Dec 22 18 @Kansas L 61 - 90 5% -20  0% 7 - 4 D+ -8 D -5 C+ C+ F C -1 F D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 110 Duquesne L 83 - 89 2OT 60% +3  70% 7 - 5 0 - 1 D+ -5 C- -1 D D A+ D+ -4 B D+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 133 @Saint Joseph's W 62 - 56 43% -5  10% 8 - 5 1 - 1 B +11 C+ +2 D A+ F A +10 A- C+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 284 @Loyola Chicago W 79 - 64 75% +10  99% 9 - 5 2 - 1 B +11 B +6 B+ C+ D B+ +6 A F+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 125 Rhode Island L 45 - 70 63% -14  0% 9 - 6 2 - 2 F -25 F -21 F F C F+ -8 F A+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 74 @George Washington W 84 - 79 23% +9  88% 10 - 6 3 - 2 A- +16 A+ +15 A+ A C+ C+ +1 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 154 Fordham W 68 - 63 72% -1  36% 11 - 6 4 - 2 C+ +2 C -0 C+ D+ C- B- +3 F C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 49 Virginia Commonwealth L 69 - 75 31% -0  40% 11 - 7 4 - 3 C+ +2 B +6 A- C- A+ D+ -4 D+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 28 102 @George Mason L 52 - 60 34% -3  21% 11 - 8 4 - 4 C -1 F+ -9 F+ B- F A- +7 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 131 @Richmond W 79 - 54 43% +17  99% 12 - 8 5 - 4 A+ +30 A+ +21 A+ A+ C+ A+ +14 A+ F B+
 Tue, Feb 3 24 Saint Louis L 82 - 91 19% +1  55% 12 - 9 5 - 5 C+ +4 A +14 B A+ A+ F -10 B+ F D
 Fri, Feb 6 284 Loyola Chicago W 84 - 64 88% +16  96% 13 - 9 6 - 5 B +10 A +13 A+ F D+ C -1 F C- A
 Sun, Feb 15 80 @Dayton L 59 - 70 24% -5  12% 13 - 10 6 - 6 C -1 C- -1 C C- A+ C- -2 B F A+
 Wed, Feb 18 131 Richmond W 65 - 63 66% +6  77% 14 - 10 7 - 6 C +1 D -6 F+ A- C- A- +7 A B- F
 Sat, Feb 21 154 @Fordham L 59 - 63 50% -3  24% 14 - 11 7 - 7 C -1 C- -1 B+ D+ F C -0 C- C- C+
 Wed, Feb 25 110 @Duquesne L 70 - 73 37%
 Sun, Mar 1 213 La Salle W 70 - 61 80%
 Wed, Mar 4 133 Saint Joseph's W 69 - 65 66%
 Sat, Mar 7 143 @St. Bonaventure L 71 - 72 47%
Totals 16 - 13 9 - 9 +3 C+ +1 C B C- C+ +2 B F+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C A- B B 35% 33% 45% C- B- C+ C+ C+ C C- F+ D C+ C D B C+ 38% 27% 36% B C+ C C C+ B- C A+ B-
1.10 58% 46% 37% +4 0 1.09 31% 1.1 .33 17% .28 66% .19 1.06 58% 42% 31% -1 -1 0.99 30% 1.0 .30 18% .31 66% .19
Nov
7		 Washington St. B A+ A A+ A+ 30% 22% 48% C- A+ F+ A+ C- F A A A+ A A+ C- A+ A+ 35% 26% 39% A- A+ D D- D- A F F F
1.22 79% 50% 45% +17 -1 1.35 18% 1.5 .27 21% .38 81% .31 0.99 44% 42% 28% -8 -1 0.85 33% 1.1 .36 23% .43 83% .35
Nov
11		 Charlotte C- F+ A+ A+ A 29% 21% 50% D+ A- F D- F F+ F+ D F+ A+ A- A+ B+ A+ 40% 16% 44% C A+ D- A+ A D+ F A+ C+
1.07 50% 56% 43% +8 -1 1.17 20% 1.0 .20 19% .25 67% .17 0.95 50% 14% 30% -10 +1 0.84 39% 0.5 .20 17% .42 55% .23
Nov
15		 Bowling Green B- B- A+ A+ A+ 30% 21% 49% D A+ D B C- F A+ C+ A+ D C C+ A+ B 49% 30% 21% A B+ D F F F F B F
1.15 62% 56% 48% +15 -1 1.30 23% 1.2 .27 23% .62 74% .46 1.10 57% 35% 25% -4 0 0.93 31% 1.1 .33 11% .50 69% .34
Nov
21		 Boston College C C- A+ F B 25% 30% 45% F+ C+ F B D B+ B B+ B+ A+ C- F A+ B 26% 32% 42% A B+ F A+ B A+ D+ A C
1.02 55% 62% 25% 0 -2 0.98 17% 1.0 .17 12% .33 71% .24 0.85 60% 50% 19% -5 -2 0.87 38% 0.7 .25 24% .32 57% .18
Nov
23		 Utah St. F+ A+ D F+ C 17% 28% 54% F C- B- D+ C F C+ F C- F+ F A F F 40% 13% 47% B- F A D B A A- F B-
0.85 75% 31% 28% -4 -2 0.89 33% 0.9 .31 27% .33 65% .21 1.34 86% 29% 44% +17 +1 1.38 29% 1.3 .38 20% .25 86% .21
Nov
28		 N.C. A&T A+ B+ A A+ A 51% 13% 36% A- A B+ A+ A A A+ F A+ D- B+ F+ F F 32% 30% 39% B- F A B- A D F A+ F+
1.36 65% 50% 44% +10 +2 1.27 33% 1.3 .42 9% .58 57% .33 1.12 50% 46% 47% +7 -2 1.14 23% 1.0 .23 17% .55 60% .33
Dec
4		 The Citadel C+ F A B+ D 35% 16% 49% D+ D C+ B- B- A+ A F B- C- D F A+ F 33% 24% 43% B F A- D+ B A- C- A+ B-
1.24 50% 50% 40% +3 0 1.10 34% 1.1 .37 9% .36 62% .22 0.99 60% 73% 25% +3 -1 1.07 21% 1.0 .21 22% .28 57% .16
Dec
7		 St. Mary's D+ B B- F+ B- 29% 29% 42% D- C+ C- F D- B- B- F D+ B- D+ D+ A B- 46% 33% 22% A- B F A+ B C+ C+ A+ A-
0.95 60% 40% 27% -3 -2 0.92 23% 0.6 .13 14% .27 53% .15 1.09 62% 40% 30% +1 -1 1.02 46% 0.8 .35 17% .32 65% .21
Dec
13		 Mercyhurst A+ A A+ A+ A+ 62% 10% 29% A A+ A- D B- B+ D+ F D- A+ F A+ A C+ 33% 38% 29% B- C+ A+ B A+ B- F A+ C
1.36 69% 50% 58% +18 +3 1.45 42% 0.9 .38 15% .34 65% .22 0.80 79% 19% 25% -4 -3 0.88 9% 1.0 .09 17% .33 44% .14
Dec
18		 Temple D- F B+ F F 42% 22% 36% C F A D B B D+ F+ D C- D A+ D C 26% 36% 38% A+ B- A+ A A+ F+ F D F
1.02 43% 45% 22% -11 0 0.80 39% 0.9 .37 13% .28 67% .19 1.10 64% 27% 38% -1 -3 0.95 15% 0.8 .12 10% .59 79% .47
Dec
22		 Kansas D F F A- C+ 34% 18% 48% B C+ C B C+ F F F F C F B+ F F 44% 23% 33% D+ F B- F D+ A+ A+ F A+
0.83 37% 20% 37% -8 0 0.86 26% 0.9 .24 22% .10 33% .03 1.22 76% 31% 47% +13 0 1.28 30% 1.5 .44 20% .09 100% .09
Dec
30		 Duquesne C- C- F+ F D- 41% 15% 44% B+ D F+ B D A+ F A F D+ A+ A+ F B 31% 17% 52% A B D+ C- D+ D B F C
1.06 56% 30% 28% -6 +1 0.91 20% 1.1 .22 8% .21 80% .17 1.14 44% 10% 43% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.1 .35 15% .32 81% .26
Jan
3		 Saint Joseph's C+ F A- D+ D 28% 23% 49% C D A- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A D+ F A+ B+ 31% 26% 43% A+ A- C+ C C+ C F B F
1.02 36% 44% 32% -6 -1 0.87 39% 1.4 .54 23% .34 81% .28 0.92 62% 45% 17% -8 -1 0.83 31% 1.0 .31 18% .42 71% .30
Jan
7		 Loyola Chicago B F A+ A+ B+ 32% 16% 52% C+ B+ C+ C+ C+ D C+ F D+ B+ A+ F A+ A+ 50% 13% 38% D A D F+ F+ C- F A+ C-
1.19 31% 75% 46% +7 0 1.16 31% 1.1 .34 15% .30 65% .19 0.96 42% 67% 22% -11 +2 0.83 35% 1.1 .38 18% .39 57% .22
Jan
10		 Rhode Island F C+ F F F 53% 10% 38% A- F F F F C B F C F+ F F D+ F 42% 20% 38% C+ F A+ D+ A+ D A+ B- A+
0.75 57% 0% 13% -16 +2 0.75 13% 0.8 .10 22% .40 63% .25 1.16 79% 67% 35% +15 0 1.33 14% 1.0 .14 17% .20 70% .14
Jan
14		 George Washington A+ F+ F A+ A+ 48% 10% 43% A A+ A B A C+ A+ F A- C+ B+ F+ A+ A+ 46% 11% 43% C+ A+ D- B+ C F D+ A+ B
1.27 50% 0% 67% +14 +2 1.33 39% 1.2 .45 17% .49 52% .25 1.19 54% 50% 25% -6 +2 0.93 41% 0.9 .39 8% .34 57% .20
Jan
21		 Fordham C A- A+ F B- 26% 30% 43% D C+ A F D+ C- A A- A B- B F B- F 42% 36% 22% A F A+ F C+ A+ A A+ A+
1.04 67% 64% 20% +1 -2 1.00 36% 0.6 .22 17% .35 74% .26 0.97 53% 69% 30% +7 -2 1.13 24% 1.3 .32 28% .15 57% .08
Jan
24		 Virginia Commonwealth B B A+ B+ A+ 20% 37% 43% F A- C D+ C- A+ D F F D+ F F A+ F+ 34% 37% 29% A+ D+ F F+ F A- D+ B C
1.12 60% 50% 38% +7 -3 1.10 29% 0.9 .26 11% .26 50% .13 1.22 71% 60% 25% +9 -2 1.15 44% 1.3 .56 19% .40 70% .28
Jan
28		 George Mason F+ D- B F D- 18% 33% 49% F F+ B+ C- B- F F D- F A- D- F B+ D+ 40% 18% 43% D+ D+ F A+ A+ A+ F A+ C-
0.89 50% 40% 27% -6 -3 0.84 33% 0.9 .31 21% .13 67% .09 1.03 69% 57% 29% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.3 .13 22% .49 59% .29
Jan
31		 Richmond A+ C+ B- A+ A+ 27% 35% 39% D- A+ A+ B+ A+ C+ F F F A+ C- A A+ A+ 19% 26% 55% B- A+ D F F B+ C A B-
1.37 62% 41% 53% +13 -3 1.22 50% 1.3 .64 16% .08 50% .04 0.94 63% 27% 22% -12 -2 0.74 29% 1.6 .45 17% .34 69% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Saint Louis A C+ D- C B 34% 19% 47% C+ B C A+ A+ A+ C+ B- B- F C B+ D B 44% 12% 44% B B+ D- F F D F C F
1.18 56% 30% 32% -4 0 0.94 26% 1.7 .44 10% .34 76% .26 1.31 61% 33% 39% +4 +2 1.13 38% 1.5 .56 14% .44 73% .32
Feb
6		 Loyola Chicago A A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 21% 49% C- A+ C- F F D+ F B- F C C F F F 46% 20% 34% B- F D C+ C- A F A+ D-
1.34 75% 64% 46% +19 -1 1.40 28% 0.6 .16 14% .19 80% .15 1.02 58% 50% 43% +7 +1 1.17 34% 0.9 .31 24% .44 57% .25
Feb
15		 Dayton C- C- C+ C C 31% 27% 42% D+ C F A+ C- A+ F F F C- C+ B B B 49% 18% 33% C B F B- F A+ F F F
0.97 53% 38% 35% -1 -1 0.98 17% 1.6 .27 16% .22 64% .14 1.15 58% 29% 31% -3 +1 0.97 52% 1.1 .59 26% .54 88% .47
Feb
18		 Richmond D C- F F F 28% 19% 53% B- F+ B- A A- C- A+ F A- A- A B+ C A 26% 36% 38% A- A A+ F B- F A A+ A+
1.02 58% 25% 26% -9 0 0.84 34% 1.4 .47 17% .44 61% .27 0.99 50% 32% 35% -4 -3 0.89 14% 1.6 .22 6% .23 57% .13
Feb
21		 Fordham C- F B- A+ B+ 33% 23% 44% C+ B+ B F D+ F A F F C B F A+ C- 49% 18% 33% D- C- A+ F C- C+ F B+ F
0.98 43% 40% 47% +4 -1 1.09 31% 0.7 .23 23% .35 31% .11 1.05 53% 71% 23% -2 +1 1.00 24% 1.4 .34 18% .57 64% .37



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.9 4.4 3rd
4th 5.4 5.5 10.9 4th
5th 0.7 16.5 1.5 18.6 5th
6th 6.7 8.9 0.0 15.7 6th
7th 1.1 17.2 1.0 19.3 7th
8th 0.1 7.4 10.6 18.0 8th
9th 1.1 8.5 1.0 10.6 9th
10th 1.6 0.8 2.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 3.0 17.7 36.2 32.2 10.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 10.9% 2.7% 2.7% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.6
10-8 32.2% 1.9% 1.9% 12.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 31.6
9-9 36.2% 0.7% 0.7% 12.3 0.2 0.1 36.0
8-10 17.7% 0.2% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 17.7
7-11 3.0% 0.3% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 2.9
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 12.2 98.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.7 37.9 55.2 6.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.4%
Lose Out 1.7%