Davidson
Atlantic 10
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.6#123
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#169
Pace64.4#283
Improvement+0.5#134

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#131
First Shot+1.1#138
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#152
Layup/Dunks+3.7#46
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#308
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#250
Freethrows+1.2#85
Improvement-0.5#275

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#131
First Shot+2.5#97
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#301
Layups/Dunks-0.6#211
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#241
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#99
Freethrows+1.6#66
Improvement+1.0#48
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 5.8% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.1 15.7
.500 or above 21.5% 36.7% 10.4%
.500 or above in Conference 21.5% 36.7% 10.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 1.7% 7.8%
First Four2.1% 1.3% 2.6%
First Round4.8% 5.4% 4.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Away) - 42.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 35 - 66 - 14
Quad 47 - 213 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 201   @ Wright St. W 102-97 2OT 56%     1 - 0 +6.1 +6.2 -1.2
  Nov 13, 2022 335   VMI W 75-71 92%     2 - 0 -9.2 -4.2 -4.9
  Nov 17, 2022 83   @ College of Charleston L 66-89 26%     2 - 1 -13.7 -2.8 -10.9
  Nov 18, 2022 229   South Carolina W 69-60 72%     3 - 1 +5.6 -2.2 +8.2
  Nov 20, 2022 176   Old Dominion W 66-61 61%     4 - 1 +4.8 -0.7 +6.0
  Nov 25, 2022 88   San Francisco W 89-80 49%     5 - 1 +11.9 +19.6 -7.4
  Nov 29, 2022 110   Charlotte L 66-68 OT 57%     5 - 2 -1.2 -2.3 +1.0
  Dec 03, 2022 206   @ Delaware L 67-69 57%     5 - 3 -1.1 +0.9 -2.2
  Dec 07, 2022 260   Western Carolina W 72-64 84%     6 - 3 -0.1 -7.3 +7.0
  Dec 17, 2022 4   Purdue L 61-69 8%     6 - 4 +10.1 -2.8 +12.8
  Dec 21, 2022 252   Northeastern L 70-73 83%     6 - 5 -10.5 -6.1 -4.3
  Dec 28, 2022 132   @ Fordham W 57-43 42%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +18.7 -8.6 +27.8
  Dec 31, 2022 68   Dayton L 55-69 39%     7 - 6 1 - 1 -8.5 -5.6 -5.0
  Jan 04, 2023 220   Loyola Chicago W 80-57 77%     8 - 6 2 - 1 +17.7 +5.1 +12.8
  Jan 07, 2023 74   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 72-89 24%     8 - 7 2 - 2 -7.2 +6.9 -13.9
  Jan 11, 2023 125   Richmond L 57-61 61%     8 - 8 2 - 3 -4.3 -9.6 +4.9
  Jan 14, 2023 122   @ George Mason L 65-67 39%     8 - 9 2 - 4 +3.4 +1.0 +2.2
  Jan 17, 2023 68   @ Dayton L 61-68 21%     8 - 10 2 - 5 +3.9 +0.7 +2.5
  Jan 24, 2023 230   @ La Salle W 64-57 63%     9 - 10 3 - 5 +6.2 -0.2 +7.3
  Jan 27, 2023 79   Saint Louis L 70-74 45%     9 - 11 3 - 6 -0.1 +3.3 -3.8
  Jan 31, 2023 74   Virginia Commonwealth L 59-61 43%     9 - 12 3 - 7 +2.4 +1.8 +0.2
  Feb 04, 2023 143   @ Massachusetts L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 11, 2023 132   Fordham W 69-66 63%    
  Feb 15, 2023 79   @ Saint Louis L 68-75 26%    
  Feb 18, 2023 162   Saint Joseph's W 72-67 69%    
  Feb 22, 2023 147   St. Bonaventure W 67-63 66%    
  Feb 26, 2023 126   @ Duquesne L 68-70 40%    
  Mar 01, 2023 191   George Washington W 76-69 74%    
  Mar 04, 2023 198   @ Rhode Island W 67-66 54%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.4 0.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 0.3 1.9 4th
5th 1.1 2.4 0.1 3.6 5th
6th 0.1 4.2 1.3 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 1.3 5.9 0.2 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 5.4 3.1 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.9 9.3 0.6 10.8 9th
10th 0.1 5.1 6.5 0.0 11.8 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 10.5 1.8 13.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 5.8 7.6 0.2 13.9 12th
13th 0.2 3.1 8.4 1.7 0.0 13.3 13th
14th 0.1 1.3 3.9 2.4 0.1 7.7 14th
15th 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.4 15th
Total 0.3 2.1 7.8 17.7 25.9 24.6 15.1 5.6 0.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.9% 9.9% 9.9% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
10-8 5.6% 7.7% 7.7% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 5.2
9-9 15.1% 7.3% 7.3% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.0 14.0
8-10 24.6% 5.9% 5.9% 15.6 0.0 0.6 0.9 23.2
7-11 25.9% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.1 1.2 24.6
6-12 17.7% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7 17.0
5-13 7.8% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.2 7.6
4-14 2.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 2.1
3-15 0.3% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.1 94.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 9.9% 13.0 0.2 0.7 7.8 1.1
Lose Out 0.3% 2.8% 16.0 2.8