Davidson
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.7 110
Expected Predictive Rating +4.7 96
Pace 61.9 342
Improvement +0.5 162

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #121 B C+ C D C-
Defense C+ #118 C+ C+ C+ B- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 298 59% 149 -2.2 259
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 186 47% 15 +1.7 86
Three Pointers 46% 83 38% 33 +4.9 36
1st FG Attempt 1.11 57 +4.5 57
Second Chance 31.4% 158 1.05 143 0.33 136
Turnovers 17.0% 185
Freethrows 0.28 253 67% 337 0.19 298
Total Offense +1.9 121

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 227 59% 200 +0.6 152
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 30 42% 308 -3.5 359
Three Pointers 36% 322 31% 55 +4.3 28
1st FG Attempt 0.99 133 +1.4 132
Second Chance 29.5% 138 0.99 116 0.29 114
Turnovers 18.1% 105
Freethrows 0.30 174 65% 2 0.19 73
Total Defense +1.8 118

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.2 227 -0.9 45
Shot Type Accuracy +4.7 49 -0.5 164
Possession Length 18.1 261 18.6 339
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 264 0.16 141
Improvement +1.2 #120 -0.7 #233

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.8% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 11.8 12.1
.500 or above 96.8% 99.7% 95.4%
.500 or above in Conference 84.5% 96.4% 78.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.9% 2.8% 1.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 33.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 42 - 8
Quad 37 - 410 - 12
Quad 48 - 118 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 127 Washington St. W 85 - 69 67% +16  99% 1 - 0 A- +15 B +7 A+ C- F A- +8 A+ D A
 Tue, Nov 11 164 @Charlotte W 62 - 55 55% +8  97% 2 - 0 B +9 C- -2 A- F F+ A +13 A+ A D+
 Sat, Nov 15 168 Bowling Green W 91 - 87 76% +9  96% 3 - 0 C +0 B- +5 A+ C- F+ D+ -5 B+ F+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 126 Boston College W 59 - 49 56% +3  69% 4 - 0 B+ +12 C +1 B D B+ A+ +13 B+ B- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 37 Utah St. L 60 - 94 16% -17  0% 4 - 1 F -20 F -10 C- C F F+ -10 F B+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 286 N.C. A&T W 90 - 74 90% +9  86% 5 - 1 B- +6 A+ +15 A A A- D- -8 F A- D
 Thu, Dec 4 335 The Citadel W 79 - 63 94% +9  98% 6 - 1 C+ +2 B- +4 D+ B- A C -1 D- B- B+
 Sun, Dec 7 41 St. Mary's L 61 - 70 27% -1  42% 6 - 2 C +1 D+ -3 C+ D- B- B- +3 B- B C+
 Sat, Dec 13 303 Mercyhurst W 80 - 47 91% +17  98% 7 - 2 A +22 A+ +16 A+ C+ B+ A +12 C+ A+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 139 Temple L 63 - 68 70% -6  1% 7 - 3 D+ -7 D- -7 F B B C -1 B A+ F+
 Mon, Dec 22 12 @Kansas L 61 - 90 5% -20  0% 7 - 4 D+ -7 D -5 B- C+ F C -0 F D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 107 Duquesne L 83 - 89 2OT 60% +3  70% 7 - 5 0 - 1 D+ -5 C- -1 D D+ A+ C- -3 B+ D+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 136 @Saint Joseph's W 62 - 56 47% -5  10% 8 - 5 1 - 1 B +11 C +2 D A+ F A +10 A- C+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 276 @Loyola Chicago W 79 - 64 76% +10  99% 9 - 5 2 - 1 B+ +11 B- +5 B+ C+ D- B+ +7 A D- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 116 Rhode Island L 45 - 70 64% -14  0% 9 - 6 2 - 2 F -25 F -22 F F C D -7 F A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 14 84 @George Washington W 84 - 79 28% +9  88% 10 - 6 3 - 2 A- +15 A+ +15 A+ A B- C -0 A C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 156 Fordham W 68 - 63 75% -1  36% 11 - 6 4 - 2 C+ +2 C- -1 C+ D C- B- +4 F C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 47 Virginia Commonwealth L 69 - 75 34% -0  40% 11 - 7 4 - 3 C+ +2 B +6 B+ C- A+ D+ -4 D+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 28 91 @George Mason L 52 - 60 32% -3  21% 11 - 8 4 - 4 C +1 F+ -8 D- B F B+ +7 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 130 @Richmond W 79 - 54 45% +17  99% 12 - 8 5 - 4 A+ +30 A+ +21 A+ A+ C+ A+ +14 A+ F B
 Tue, Feb 3 23 Saint Louis L 82 - 91 18% +1  55% 12 - 9 5 - 5 C+ +5 A +13 B A+ A+ D- -9 B+ F D+
 Fri, Feb 6 276 Loyola Chicago W 84 - 64 89% +16  96% 13 - 9 6 - 5 B +10 A +13 A+ F D C -0 F C A
 Sun, Feb 15 98 @Dayton L 66 - 71 33%
 Wed, Feb 18 130 Richmond W 74 - 69 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 156 @Fordham W 65 - 64 52%
 Wed, Feb 25 107 @Duquesne L 72 - 75 38%
 Sun, Mar 1 228 La Salle W 72 - 62 83%
 Wed, Mar 4 136 Saint Joseph's W 70 - 65 68%
 Sat, Mar 7 135 @St. Bonaventure L 71 - 72 46%
Totals 17 - 12 10 - 8 +4 C+ +2 B C+ C C+ +2 C+ C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C A B+ B+ 34% 20% 46% C- B C+ C+ C+ C D+ D- D C+ C D B C 37% 27% 36% B C+ C+ C+ C+ C+ C A+ B-
1.11 59% 47% 38% +5 0 1.11 31% 1.0 .33 17% .28 67% .19 1.06 59% 42% 31% 0 -1 0.99 29% 1.0 .29 18% .30 65% .19
Nov
7		 Washington St. B A+ A A+ A+ 30% 22% 48% C- A+ F+ A+ C- F A A A+ A- A+ C- A A+ 35% 26% 39% A- A+ D D D A F F F
1.22 79% 50% 45% +17 -1 1.35 18% 1.5 .27 21% .38 81% .31 0.99 44% 42% 28% -8 -1 0.85 33% 1.1 .36 23% .43 83% .35
Nov
11		 Charlotte C- D- A+ A+ A 29% 21% 50% D+ A- F D- F F+ F+ D F+ A A- A+ B+ A+ 40% 16% 44% C A+ D- A+ A D+ F+ A+ B-
1.07 50% 56% 43% +8 -1 1.17 20% 1.0 .20 19% .25 67% .17 0.95 50% 14% 30% -9 +1 0.84 39% 0.5 .20 17% .42 55% .23
Nov
15		 Bowling Green B- B- A+ A+ A+ 30% 21% 49% D- A+ D B C- F+ A+ C+ A+ D+ C C+ A+ B 49% 30% 21% A B+ D+ F F+ F F B+ F
1.15 62% 56% 48% +15 -1 1.30 23% 1.2 .27 23% .62 74% .46 1.10 57% 35% 25% -4 0 0.93 31% 1.1 .33 11% .50 69% .34
Nov
21		 Boston College C C A+ F A- 25% 30% 45% F+ B F B D B+ B A- B+ A+ C- F A+ B 26% 32% 42% A B+ F A+ B- A+ C- A C+
1.02 55% 62% 25% 0 -2 0.98 17% 1.0 .17 12% .33 71% .24 0.85 60% 50% 19% -5 -2 0.87 38% 0.7 .25 24% .32 57% .18
Nov
23		 Utah St. F A+ D- F+ C 17% 28% 54% F+ C- B- D C F C+ F C- F+ F A F F 40% 13% 47% B- F A D+ B+ A A- F C+
0.85 75% 31% 28% -4 -3 0.89 33% 0.9 .31 27% .33 65% .21 1.34 86% 29% 44% +17 +1 1.38 29% 1.3 .38 20% .25 86% .21
Nov
28		 N.C. A&T A+ B+ A A+ A 51% 13% 36% A- A B+ A A A- A+ F A+ D- B F+ F F 32% 30% 39% C+ F A B- A- D F A+ F+
1.36 65% 50% 44% +11 +2 1.27 33% 1.3 .42 9% .58 57% .33 1.12 50% 46% 47% +8 -2 1.14 23% 1.0 .23 17% .55 60% .33
Dec
4		 The Citadel B- F A A- D+ 35% 16% 49% C- D+ C+ C+ B- A A- F B- C D+ F A+ F 33% 24% 43% B D- A- D B- B+ C A+ B-
1.24 50% 50% 40% +4 0 1.10 34% 1.1 .37 9% .36 62% .22 0.99 60% 73% 25% +3 -1 1.07 21% 1.0 .21 22% .28 57% .16
Dec
7		 St. Mary's D+ B B- F+ B- 29% 29% 42% D C+ C F D- B- B- F D+ B- D+ D+ A- B- 46% 33% 22% A- B- F A+ B C+ C+ A+ A
0.95 60% 40% 27% -3 -2 0.92 23% 0.6 .13 14% .27 53% .15 1.09 62% 40% 30% +1 -1 1.02 46% 0.8 .35 17% .32 65% .21
Dec
13		 Mercyhurst A+ A A+ A+ A+ 62% 10% 29% A A+ A- D- C+ B+ D+ F D- A F A+ A C+ 33% 38% 29% B- C+ A+ B A+ C+ F A+ C
1.36 69% 50% 58% +19 +3 1.45 42% 0.9 .38 15% .34 65% .22 0.80 79% 19% 25% -4 -3 0.88 9% 1.0 .09 17% .33 44% .14
Dec
18		 Temple D- F B+ F F 42% 22% 36% C F A D B B C- D- D+ C D A+ D C+ 26% 36% 38% A+ B A+ A A+ F+ F D+ F
1.02 43% 45% 22% -11 0 0.80 39% 0.9 .37 13% .28 67% .19 1.10 64% 27% 38% 0 -3 0.95 15% 0.8 .12 10% .59 79% .47
Dec
22		 Kansas D F F A- C+ 34% 18% 48% B B- C B C+ F F F F C F B+ F F 44% 23% 33% C- F B- F D+ A+ A+ F A+
0.83 37% 20% 37% -8 0 0.86 26% 0.9 .24 22% .10 33% .03 1.22 76% 31% 47% +13 0 1.28 30% 1.5 .44 20% .09 100% .09
Dec
30		 Duquesne C- C- D- F D- 41% 15% 44% B+ D F+ B D+ A+ F A F C- A+ A+ F B 31% 17% 52% A B+ D+ C- D+ D B- F C
1.06 56% 30% 28% -6 +1 0.91 20% 1.1 .22 8% .21 80% .17 1.14 44% 10% 43% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.1 .35 15% .32 81% .26
Jan
3		 Saint Joseph's C F A- D+ D 28% 23% 49% C D A- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A D+ F A+ B+ 31% 26% 43% A+ A- C+ C C+ C F B F
1.02 36% 44% 32% -6 -1 0.87 39% 1.4 .54 23% .34 81% .28 0.92 62% 45% 17% -8 -1 0.83 31% 1.0 .31 18% .42 71% .30
Jan
7		 Loyola Chicago B- F A+ A+ B+ 32% 16% 52% C+ B+ C+ C+ C+ D- C+ F D B+ A+ F A+ A+ 50% 13% 38% D A D+ D- D- C- F A+ C-
1.19 31% 75% 46% +7 0 1.16 31% 1.1 .34 15% .30 65% .19 0.96 42% 67% 22% -11 +2 0.83 35% 1.1 .38 18% .39 57% .22
Jan
10		 Rhode Island F C F F F 53% 10% 38% A F F F F C B+ F C+ D F F D+ F 42% 20% 38% C+ F A+ D+ A+ D- A+ B- A+
0.75 57% 0% 13% -16 +2 0.75 13% 0.8 .10 22% .40 63% .25 1.16 79% 67% 35% +15 0 1.33 14% 1.0 .14 17% .20 70% .14
Jan
14		 George Washington A+ F+ F A+ A+ 48% 10% 43% A A+ A B A B- A+ F B+ C B F+ A+ A+ 46% 11% 43% C+ A D B+ C+ F D+ A+ B
1.27 50% 0% 67% +14 +2 1.33 39% 1.2 .45 17% .49 52% .25 1.19 54% 50% 25% -6 +2 0.93 41% 0.9 .39 8% .34 57% .20
Jan
21		 Fordham C- A- A+ F B- 26% 30% 43% D C+ A F D C- A B A B- B F B- F 42% 36% 22% A- F A+ F C+ A+ A- A+ A
1.04 67% 64% 20% +1 -2 1.00 36% 0.6 .22 17% .35 74% .26 0.97 53% 69% 30% +7 -2 1.13 24% 1.3 .32 28% .15 57% .08
Jan
24		 Virginia Commonwealth B B A B+ A+ 20% 37% 43% F B+ C C- C- A+ D F F D+ F F A+ F+ 34% 37% 29% A+ D+ F F+ F A- D+ B C
1.12 60% 50% 38% +8 -3 1.10 29% 0.9 .26 11% .26 50% .13 1.22 71% 60% 25% +9 -2 1.15 44% 1.3 .56 19% .40 70% .28
Jan
28		 George Mason F+ D- B F D 18% 33% 49% F D- B+ C B F F D- F B+ D- F B+ D+ 40% 18% 43% D+ D+ F A+ A+ A+ F A+ C-
0.89 50% 40% 27% -6 -3 0.84 33% 0.9 .31 21% .13 67% .09 1.03 69% 57% 29% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.3 .13 22% .49 59% .29
Jan
31		 Richmond A+ C+ B- A+ A+ 27% 35% 39% D- A+ A+ B+ A+ C+ F F F A+ C- A A+ A+ 19% 26% 55% B- A+ D+ F F B C- A B-
1.37 62% 41% 53% +13 -3 1.22 50% 1.3 .64 16% .08 50% .04 0.94 63% 27% 22% -12 -2 0.74 29% 1.6 .45 17% .34 69% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Saint Louis A C+ D- C B 34% 19% 47% C+ B C A+ A+ A+ C+ B- B- D- C B D B+ 44% 12% 44% B B+ D- F F D+ F C F
1.18 56% 30% 32% -4 0 0.94 26% 1.7 .44 10% .34 76% .26 1.31 61% 33% 39% +4 +2 1.13 38% 1.5 .56 14% .44 73% .32
Feb
6		 Loyola Chicago A A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 21% 49% C- A+ C- F F D F C+ F C C F F F 46% 20% 34% C+ F D+ C+ C A F A+ D-
1.34 75% 64% 46% +19 -1 1.40 28% 0.6 .16 14% .19 80% .15 1.02 58% 50% 43% +7 +1 1.17 34% 0.9 .31 24% .44 57% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 0.7 1.6 2nd
3rd 1.0 7.8 6.5 1.3 16.6 3rd
4th 0.5 11.1 11.9 2.2 0.1 25.7 4th
5th 0.0 3.8 12.3 1.5 0.0 17.6 5th
6th 0.4 8.7 4.3 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 0.0 2.6 7.4 0.4 10.3 7th
8th 0.2 5.0 2.1 7.2 8th
9th 1.1 3.2 0.2 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 0.4 1.9 10th
11th 0.3 0.6 0.9 11th
12th 0.2 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.5 3.4 11.6 22.6 29.1 21.4 9.4 2.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 2.0% 3.4% 3.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 2.0
12-6 9.4% 3.7% 3.7% 11.7 0.1 0.2 9.1
11-7 21.4% 3.1% 3.1% 11.9 0.1 0.5 0.0 20.7
10-8 29.1% 1.9% 1.9% 12.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 28.5
9-9 22.6% 0.8% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 22.4
8-10 11.6% 0.3% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5
7-11 3.4% 3.4
6-12 0.5% 0.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 12.0 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%
Lose Out 0.2%