Davidson
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.3 #112
Expected Predictive Rating +4.7 #93
Pace 62.0 #343
Improvement -0.1 #189

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #129 B- C+ C D+ C-
Defense #116 C+ C+ C+ B- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #295 1.16 #169 -2.4 #264
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #180 0.93 #19 +1.6 #89
Three Pointers 45% #90 1.13 #40 +4.7 #41
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #69 +4.0 #69
Freethrows 0.29 #244 67% #332 0.19 #289
Second Chance 31.8% #150 1.06 #140 0.34 #129
Turnovers 17.0% #179
Total Offense +1.5 #129

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #243 1.17 #201 +1.0 #140
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #32 0.83 #289 -3.4 #358
Three Pointers 36% #300 0.89 #39 +4.6 #24
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #107 +2.1 #109
Freethrows 0.29 #147 65% #3 0.19 #65
Second Chance 29.4% #122 0.99 #117 0.29 #116
Turnovers 17.9% #122
Total Defense +1.8 #116

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #227 -1.9% #40
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.3% #62 -2.1% #139
Possession Length 18.1 #258 18.5 #340
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #283 0.16 #144
Improvement +0.4 #157 -0.5 #209

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 1.8% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.9 11.9
.500 or above 95.0% 96.9% 80.9%
.500 or above in Conference 80.7% 84.5% 51.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.7% 1.8% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Home) - 88.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 42 - 8
Quad 38 - 410 - 12
Quad 47 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 122 Washington St. W 85 - 69 64% +16  1 - 0 +16 +10 A+ C- F +6 A+ D A
 Tue, Nov 11 154 @Charlotte W 62 - 55 51% +8  2 - 0 +10 +0 A- F D- +11 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 15 148 Bowling Green W 91 - 87 70% +9  3 - 0 +2 +8 A+ C- D -7 B+ F+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 126 Boston College W 59 - 49 55% +3  4 - 0 +12 +4 B D- A- +10 B+ B- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 38 Utah St. L 60 - 94 17% -17  4 - 1 -20 -7 C- C F -13 F B+ A-
 Fri, Nov 28 280 N.C. A&T W 90 - 74 89% +9  5 - 1 +6 +18 A A+ A- -10 F A- D
 Thu, Dec 4 345 The Citadel W 79 - 63 94% +9  6 - 1 +1 +6 C- C+ A -3 D- B- B
 Sun, Dec 7 42 St. Mary's L 61 - 70 29% -1  6 - 2 -0 -1 C+ D- C+ +0 B- B C
 Sat, Dec 13 299 Mercyhurst W 80 - 47 91% +17  7 - 2 +22 +19 A+ C B+ +9 C+ A+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 145 Temple L 63 - 68 70% -6  7 - 3 -7 -4 F B B+ -4 B A+ F+
 Mon, Dec 22 12 @Kansas L 61 - 90 5% -20  7 - 4 -7 -3 B- C+ F -3 F+ D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 113 Duquesne L 83 - 89 2OT 62% +3  7 - 5 0 - 1 -6 +2 D D+ A+ -7 B+ D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 133 @Saint Joseph's W 62 - 56 44% -5  8 - 5 1 - 1 +11 +4 D A+ F +8 A- C C+
 Wed, Jan 7 270 @Loyola Chicago W 79 - 64 73% +10  9 - 5 2 - 1 +12 +8 B+ C+ D +4 A D- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 118 Rhode Island L 45 - 70 63% -14  9 - 6 2 - 2 -25 -19 F F C -10 F A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 14 79 @George Washington W 84 - 79 26% +9  10 - 6 3 - 2 +15 +18 A+ A B -3 A+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 167 Fordham W 68 - 63 74% -1  11 - 6 4 - 2 +1 +1 B- D C- +1 F C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 52 Virginia Commonwealth L 69 - 75 35% -0  11 - 7 4 - 3 +1 +8 B+ C A+ -7 C- F A-
 Wed, Jan 28 81 @George Mason L 52 - 60 27% -3  11 - 8 4 - 4 +2 -6 D- B F+ +6 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 136 @Richmond W 79 - 54 45% +17  12 - 8 5 - 4 +30 +24 A+ A+ C+ +11 A+ F B-
 Tue, Feb 3 25 Saint Louis L 82 - 91 18% +1  12 - 9 5 - 5 +4 +15 B A+ A+ -11 B+ F D+
 Fri, Feb 6 270 Loyola Chicago W 76 - 63 88%
 Sun, Feb 15 91 @Dayton L 65 - 71 30%
 Wed, Feb 18 136 Richmond W 73 - 68 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 167 @Fordham W 65 - 64 53%
 Wed, Feb 25 113 @Duquesne L 72 - 75 39%
 Sun, Mar 1 225 La Salle W 72 - 62 82%
 Wed, Mar 4 133 Saint Joseph's W 70 - 65 67%
 Sat, Mar 7 137 @St. Bonaventure L 70 - 71 46%
Totals 17 - 12 10 - 8 +3 +2 B- C+ C +2 C+ C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 3.3 1.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.3 5.3 12.0 4.3 0.3 22.0 4th
5th 0.1 3.0 12.8 5.5 0.2 21.6 5th
6th 0.6 9.0 8.0 0.5 18.2 6th
7th 0.1 3.8 8.7 1.3 13.9 7th
8th 0.8 6.3 2.3 0.1 9.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 2.7 0.1 5.0 9th
10th 0.4 1.3 0.2 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 1.0 4.6 13.7 23.4 27.6 19.8 8.2 1.7 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.7% 6.4% 6.4% 11.3 0.1 0.0 1.6
12-6 8.2% 5.2% 5.2% 11.7 0.2 0.3 7.8
11-7 19.8% 3.1% 3.1% 12.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 19.2
10-8 27.6% 1.2% 1.2% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 27.2
9-9 23.4% 0.9% 0.9% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 23.2
8-10 13.7% 0.1% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 13.7
7-11 4.6% 4.6
6-12 1.0% 1.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 11.9 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%