Davidson
Atlantic 10
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#84
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#110
Pace63.0#319
Improvement-1.2#270

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#49
First Shot+6.2#29
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#245
Layup/Dunks+1.3#123
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#151
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#50
Freethrows-0.2#201
Improvement+0.2#150

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#131
First Shot+1.0#139
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#176
Layups/Dunks+3.3#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#250
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#237
Freethrows+0.2#175
Improvement-1.4#302
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.3% 17.4% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.9% 6.1% 2.4%
Average Seed 11.0 10.8 11.5
.500 or above 92.6% 96.0% 85.6%
.500 or above in Conference 86.5% 89.2% 80.8%
Conference Champion 14.6% 16.3% 11.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four2.2% 2.7% 1.3%
First Round14.2% 16.1% 10.1%
Second Round4.9% 5.8% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.8% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 67.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 43 - 7
Quad 38 - 311 - 10
Quad 49 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 162   Delaware W 93-71 80%     1 - 0 +19.4 +16.6 +3.2
  Nov 13, 2021 50   @ San Francisco L 60-65 29%     1 - 1 +7.2 -5.6 +12.8
  Nov 18, 2021 94   New Mexico St. L 64-75 52%     1 - 2 -5.3 -1.1 -5.4
  Nov 19, 2021 192   Penn W 72-60 77%     2 - 2 +10.6 +8.5 +4.0
  Nov 21, 2021 178   East Carolina W 76-67 75%     3 - 2 +8.4 +6.0 +2.8
  Nov 27, 2021 290   Robert Morris W 88-70 93%     4 - 2 +8.0 +9.1 -1.0
  Nov 30, 2021 198   @ Charlotte W 68-63 68%    
  Dec 04, 2021 333   William & Mary W 79-58 97%    
  Dec 12, 2021 149   @ Northeastern W 65-63 58%    
  Dec 18, 2021 247   Radford W 72-58 89%    
  Dec 22, 2021 34   Loyola Chicago L 63-66 40%    
  Dec 30, 2021 194   Duquesne W 75-64 84%    
  Jan 02, 2022 81   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 60-63 38%    
  Jan 05, 2022 221   @ Saint Joseph's W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 08, 2022 73   Rhode Island W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 11, 2022 117   Massachusetts W 80-74 71%    
  Jan 14, 2022 80   @ Richmond L 71-74 38%    
  Jan 22, 2022 248   @ Fordham W 70-62 77%    
  Jan 26, 2022 81   Virginia Commonwealth W 63-60 60%    
  Jan 29, 2022 243   La Salle W 74-61 88%    
  Feb 01, 2022 40   @ St. Bonaventure L 63-70 25%    
  Feb 05, 2022 266   @ George Washington W 72-63 79%    
  Feb 09, 2022 221   Saint Joseph's W 80-68 85%    
  Feb 12, 2022 73   @ Rhode Island L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 19, 2022 62   Saint Louis W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 23, 2022 194   @ Duquesne W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 248   Fordham W 73-59 89%    
  Mar 02, 2022 115   George Mason W 72-66 70%    
  Mar 05, 2022 111   @ Dayton L 65-66 50%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.0 4.7 3.2 1.2 0.2 14.6 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 5.2 5.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 6.0 5.2 1.2 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.1 5.5 1.2 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.4 3.6 6.0 1.4 0.1 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.1 1.7 0.2 9.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.2 0.2 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.4 0.3 5.7 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 1.7 0.5 3.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.7 6.1 8.9 12.1 14.7 15.2 12.9 10.7 7.1 3.6 1.2 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.1% 1.2    1.1 0.1
16-2 91.0% 3.2    2.6 0.6 0.0
15-3 65.8% 4.7    2.7 1.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 36.9% 4.0    1.1 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.7% 1.3    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.3
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.6% 14.6 7.8 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 91.7% 25.0% 66.7% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.9%
17-1 1.2% 85.3% 40.5% 44.8% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 75.4%
16-2 3.6% 67.3% 31.3% 36.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.3 1.2 52.5%
15-3 7.1% 42.2% 24.4% 17.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 4.1 23.6%
14-4 10.7% 26.6% 18.9% 7.8% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.9 9.6%
13-5 12.9% 19.3% 17.6% 1.7% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 10.4 2.1%
12-6 15.2% 10.8% 10.3% 0.5% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 13.5 0.5%
11-7 14.7% 6.6% 6.5% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 13.7 0.1%
10-8 12.1% 2.9% 2.9% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.8
9-9 8.9% 2.4% 2.4% 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.7
8-10 6.1% 2.1% 2.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.9
7-11 3.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
6-12 2.1% 2.1
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 15.3% 10.9% 4.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.6 3.9 5.0 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 84.7 4.9%