IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Marshall
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.7	#168
Expected Predictive Rating	+14.1	#8

Pace	72.5	#76
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.7	#219

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.9	#132

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	10.1%	13.3%	7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.1	12.8	13.3

.500 or above	78.3%	88.8%	70.0%
.500 or above in Conference	76.8%	83.6%	71.5%
Conference Champion	11.8%	16.0%	8.6%
Last Place in Conference	1.3%	0.6%	1.8%

First Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
First Round	10.1%	13.3%	7.7%
Second Round	0.9%	1.3%	0.6%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Away) - 43.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	4 - 5	5 - 8
Quad 4	14 - 4	18 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	187	@ Massachusetts	W	78-72	43%	1 - 0			+7.2	-3.9	+10.2
Nov 08, 2025	195	@ Toledo	L	76-78	44%
Nov 12, 2025	230	Elon	W	73-67	72%
Nov 15, 2025	43	@ Virginia	L	58-74	7%
Nov 20, 2025	364	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	88-64	98%
Nov 23, 2025	361	Mercyhurst	W	76-59	94%
Nov 26, 2025	244	Lipscomb	W	74-67	72%
Dec 03, 2025	119	@ UNC Wilmington	L	68-74	29%
Dec 06, 2025	150	@ Ohio	L	75-79	37%
Dec 10, 2025	157	Western Kentucky	W	78-75	59%
Dec 13, 2025	194	Wright St.	W	75-71	65%
Dec 20, 2025	117	@ Troy	L	68-75	28%
Dec 31, 2025	311	Georgia St.	W	79-68	82%
Jan 03, 2026	240	Appalachian St.	W	69-62	71%
Jan 07, 2026	138	@ James Madison	L	68-73	34%
Jan 10, 2026	311	@ Georgia St.	W	76-71	65%
Jan 14, 2026	282	Coastal Carolina	W	76-67	77%
Jan 17, 2026	138	James Madison	W	71-70	54%
Jan 22, 2026	357	Louisiana Monroe	W	81-65	91%
Jan 24, 2026	155	South Alabama	W	68-66	59%
Jan 28, 2026	260	@ Texas St.	W	71-69	56%
Jan 31, 2026	134	@ Arkansas St.	L	73-78	33%
Feb 04, 2026	297	Southern Miss	W	81-71	79%
Feb 11, 2026	205	@ Old Dominion	L	70-71	45%
Feb 14, 2026	243	@ Georgia Southern	W	75-74	52%
Feb 19, 2026	240	@ Appalachian St.	W	66-65	52%
Feb 21, 2026	282	@ Coastal Carolina	W	73-70	59%
Feb 24, 2026	205	Old Dominion	W	73-68	66%
Feb 27, 2026	243	Georgia Southern	W	78-71	71%
Projected Record						18 - 11	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	1.0	2.6	3.7	2.8	1.3	0.3		11.8	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	1.7	4.1	4.6	1.9	0.4	0.0			12.9	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.5	4.6	4.2	1.3	0.1					11.9	3rd
4th										0.0	1.0	4.3	4.4	1.4	0.1						11.2	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	3.6	4.4	1.3	0.1							10.0	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.3	4.9	1.8	0.1								9.4	6th
7th								0.1	1.5	4.4	2.0	0.2									8.2	7th
8th							0.0	0.7	3.3	2.5	0.3	0.0									6.8	8th
9th						0.0	0.4	2.1	2.5	0.5	0.0										5.5	9th
10th					0.0	0.2	1.4	2.0	0.7	0.0											4.3	10th
11th				0.0	0.2	0.9	1.6	0.8	0.1												3.5	11th
12th				0.1	0.5	1.0	0.8	0.2													2.6	12th
13th		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0													1.5	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0														0.5	14th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.5	2.5	4.3	5.9	8.2	10.3	12.0	12.3	12.2	10.9	8.5	5.6	3.2	1.4	0.3			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
17-1	98.5%	1.3		1.2	0.1
16-2	87.3%	2.8		2.3	0.5	0.0
15-3	65.1%	3.7		2.0	1.3	0.3	0.0
14-4	29.9%	2.6		0.9	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	9.4%	1.0		0.1	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.9%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	11.8%	11.8		6.8	3.5	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.3%		63.8%	58.0%	5.8%	10.5						0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0					0.1		13.8%
17-1	1.4%		48.9%	48.9%		11.7								0.0			0.0	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0			0.7
16-2	3.2%		37.6%	37.5%	0.2%	12.2												0.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0		2.0		0.2%
15-3	5.6%		31.0%	31.0%		12.7												0.1	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.0		3.9
14-4	8.5%		24.6%	24.6%		13.1												0.0	0.6	0.8	0.6	0.1	0.0	6.4
13-5	10.9%		18.4%	18.4%		13.4												0.0	0.3	0.9	0.6	0.2	0.0	8.9
12-6	12.2%		9.8%	9.8%		14.0													0.1	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0	11.0
11-7	12.3%		4.5%	4.5%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	11.8
10-8	12.0%		2.0%	2.0%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	11.8
9-9	10.3%		0.7%	0.7%		14.3														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.3
8-10	8.2%		0.5%	0.5%		18.7															0.0	0.0	0.0	8.2
7-11	5.9%		0.6%	0.6%		17.7																0.0	0.0	5.8
6-12	4.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.2
5-13	2.5%																							2.5
4-14	1.5%																							1.5
3-15	0.6%																							0.6
2-16	0.2%																							0.2
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		10.1%	10.1%	0.0%	13.1						0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.7	2.6	3.4	2.3	0.8	0.2	89.9		0.0%