Marshall
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#161
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#141
Pace71.5#125
Improvement-2.3#316

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#170
First Shot-1.3#204
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#98
Layup/Dunks-3.8#309
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#62
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#105
Freethrows-1.9#298
Improvement-1.0#256

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#161
First Shot-1.9#232
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#50
Layups/Dunks+4.3#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#309
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#271
Freethrows-1.9#303
Improvement-1.3#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.0% 13.7% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 14.1
.500 or above 92.8% 94.3% 81.1%
.500 or above in Conference 85.0% 87.3% 67.1%
Conference Champion 11.4% 12.3% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round12.9% 13.7% 7.2%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Home) - 89.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 36 - 66 - 8
Quad 413 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 164 @Massachusetts W 78-72 39%     1 - 0 +8.6 -2.4 +10.2
  Sat, Nov 8 170 @Toledo W 85-73 40%     2 - 0 +14.3 +9.2 +5.0
  Wed, Nov 12 166 Elon W 96-89 63%     3 - 0 +3.5 +9.4 -6.5
  Sat, Nov 15 26 @Virginia L 78-104 5%     3 - 1 -7.9 +5.4 -11.3
  Thu, Nov 20 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98-70 92%     4 - 1 +12.2 +10.1 -0.3
  Sun, Nov 23 318 Mercyhurst W 69-60 87%     5 - 1 -3.3 -0.8 -1.5
  Wed, Nov 26 144 Lipscomb L 67-90 57%     5 - 2 -24.8 -12.3 -10.2
  Wed, Dec 3 120 @UNC Wilmington L 69-70 28%     5 - 3 +4.8 +6.1 -1.4
  Sat, Dec 6 189 @Ohio L 81-88 45%     5 - 4 -5.9 +5.1 -10.8
  Wed, Dec 10 145 Western Kentucky W 77-61 57%     6 - 4 +14.1 +5.0 +9.4
  Sat, Dec 13 153 Wright St. W 76-74 60%     7 - 4 -0.6 +10.6 -11.0
  Sat, Dec 20 139 @Troy L 63-70 33%     7 - 5 0 - 1 -2.5 -6.9 +4.3
  Wed, Dec 31 330 Georgia St. W 81-68 89%    
  Sat, Jan 3 228 Appalachian St. W 71-64 74%    
  Wed, Jan 7 198 @James Madison L 74-75 47%    
  Sat, Jan 10 330 @Georgia St. W 78-71 74%    
  Wed, Jan 14 230 Coastal Carolina W 77-70 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 198 James Madison W 77-72 68%    
  Thu, Jan 22 359 Louisiana Monroe W 86-68 95%    
  Sat, Jan 24 190 South Alabama W 73-68 67%    
  Wed, Jan 28 255 @Texas St. W 72-70 57%    
  Sat, Jan 31 136 @Arkansas St. L 79-84 33%    
  Wed, Feb 4 207 Southern Miss W 78-72 70%    
  Wed, Feb 11 217 @Old Dominion W 76-75 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 213 @Georgia Southern W 81-80 50%    
  Thu, Feb 19 228 @Appalachian St. W 68-67 54%    
  Sat, Feb 21 230 @Coastal Carolina W 74-73 54%    
  Tue, Feb 24 217 Old Dominion W 79-73 72%    
  Fri, Feb 27 213 Georgia Southern W 83-77 71%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.6 3.4 1.6 0.3 11.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.0 6.6 4.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.6 7.3 3.7 0.8 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 6.8 3.8 0.3 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 5.0 4.3 0.5 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 4.7 0.8 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.1 1.8 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.4 3.0 0.2 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.7 0.7 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.2 0.1 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.1 7.3 10.9 13.9 16.2 16.0 12.7 8.6 4.6 1.7 0.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 98.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 93.8% 1.6    1.3 0.3 0.0
15-3 73.1% 3.4    2.1 1.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 41.5% 3.6    1.5 1.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 16.2% 2.1    0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.4% 11.4 5.6 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.3% 46.1% 46.1% 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.7% 41.4% 41.4% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.0
15-3 4.6% 35.9% 35.9% 13.2 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 3.0
14-4 8.6% 31.3% 31.3% 13.6 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.2 5.9
13-5 12.7% 23.2% 23.2% 13.9 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 9.8
12-6 16.0% 14.4% 14.4% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.0 13.7
11-7 16.2% 8.1% 8.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 14.8
10-8 13.9% 4.9% 4.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 13.2
9-9 10.9% 2.8% 2.8% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.6
8-10 7.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.2
7-11 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.1
6-12 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 13.8 0.1 0.6 3.9 5.8 2.4 0.2 87.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.8 31.9 57.4 10.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%