Marshall
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.9 173
Expected Predictive Rating +1.0 143
Pace 71.9 90
Improvement -3.0 303

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 106 C+ B- C- D D
Defense D+ 274 C C- C D B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 347 B+ 65% 43 -2.5 271
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 147 C- 37% 217 +1.3 106
Three Pointers 45% 105 B- 36% 95 +3.4 73
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 313 B +3.3 77
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.06 109
Second Chance C+ 31.4% 157 B- 1.10 75 B- 0.35 98
Turnovers C- 17.4% 213
Freethrows D 0.26 324 C 73% 168 D 0.19 306
Total Offense C+ +2.4 106

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A 65% 11 C 10.6% 154
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 237 B- 3.4% 71
Three Pointers D 79% 293 C- 1.1% 242
Total B- 61% 71 B 4.6% 70

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 296 D+ 61% 259 -1.4 130
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 101 B- 35% 84 +0.3 211
Three Pointers 43% 125 C- 35% 241 +1.6 269
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.6 78 C- +1.1 223
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 196
Second Chance D 34.1% 316 B 0.95 66 C- 0.32 217
Turnovers C 17.0% 173
Freethrows D 0.35 315 C+ 72% 144 D 0.25 306
Total Defense D+ -3.3 274

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 101 B- 13.7% 75
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 182 B+ 8.7% 28
Three Pointers C+ 83% 134 C- 0.7% 206
Total C+ 54% 141 B- 7.0% 73

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.7 38 18.0 291
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 84 0.18 223
Improvement +3.2 #45 -6.2 #362

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 199 174 150
Conference Record 11 - 7 12 - 6 13 - 5
Conference Finish 4 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18% 23% 13%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 56% 79% 32%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round18% 23% 13%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Away) - 51.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 37 - 47 - 7
Quad 413 - 520 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 182 @Massachusetts W 78 - 72 40% +5  87% 1 - 0 B- +8 F+ -8 B C F A+ +15 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 169 @Toledo W 85 - 73 38% -1  34% 2 - 0 B+ +14 B +7 A+ D- D- A- +7 B B+ A-
 Wed, Nov 12 203 Elon W 96 - 89 68% +6  95% 3 - 0 C +1 B +7 B+ A+ D D -6 C- C D-
 Sat, Nov 15 22 @Virginia L 78 - 104 4% -20  0% 3 - 1 D+ -6 B+ +8 C A+ D- F -11 D+ D F+
 Thu, Nov 20 328 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98 - 70 88% +5  50% 4 - 1 B+ +14 B +7 A+ F C+ B +5 A C B
 Sun, Nov 23 301 Mercyhurst W 69 - 60 83% +5  87% 5 - 1 C- -2 D+ -2 B+ F+ C+ C+ +1 B+ C+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 190 Lipscomb L 67 - 90 66% -17  0% 5 - 2 F -28 F -17 F B- F F+ -9 F A B
 Wed, Dec 3 111 @UNC Wilmington L 69 - 70 24% -1  31% 5 - 3 B- +6 B- +5 C- A+ D- C+ +0 A+ B- F
 Sat, Dec 6 208 @Ohio L 81 - 88 46% -6  0% 5 - 4 D+ -7 C+ +2 D+ B C F+ -9 D C+ F+
 Wed, Dec 10 168 Western Kentucky W 77 - 61 60% +7  71% 6 - 4 B+ +12 C+ +3 D+ B+ A+ A +10 B- A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 149 Wright St. W 76 - 74 57% -1  28% 7 - 4 C -1 B +6 C+ A C- D- -7 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 146 @Troy L 63 - 70 33% -6  10% 7 - 5 0 - 1 C- -3 F -11 F D+ D- A- +7 A B B-
 Wed, Dec 31 283 Georgia St. W 84 - 80 81% +2  61% 8 - 5 1 - 1 D+ -6 C +1 C+ A F+ D- -7 D- F+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 174 Appalachian St. W 88 - 81 62% +8  92% 9 - 5 2 - 1 C+ +3 A +12 A+ F+ B F+ -9 D- D- C
 Wed, Jan 7 210 @James Madison W 66 - 64 46% +8  96% 10 - 5 3 - 1 C+ +2 C- -2 F B+ B+ B +4 A- D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 283 @Georgia St. L 73 - 81 62% +3  56% 10 - 6 3 - 2 D- -12 D -6 D B- F D -6 B F B
 Wed, Jan 14 238 Coastal Carolina L 83 - 85 73% -5  17% 10 - 7 3 - 3 D -9 B+ +7 A- D+ A- F -17 F B- B-
 Sat, Jan 17 210 James Madison W 77 - 72 68% -0  59% 11 - 7 4 - 3 C -1 C- -1 D B+ F C -0 B- F B+
 Thu, Jan 22 353 Louisiana Monroe W 115 - 60 93% +28  97% 12 - 7 5 - 3 A+ +38 A+ +24 A+ A+ D A +11 A+ C C-
 Wed, Jan 28 225 @Texas St. L 68 - 72 49% -4  21% 12 - 8 5 - 4 C- -5 D -5 D F+ A+ C+ +1 C F+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 140 @Arkansas St. W 70 - 61 31% +4  76% 13 - 8 6 - 4 B+ +13 C+ +4 C B F+ A +11 A+ A C-
 Wed, Feb 4 245 Southern Miss W 81 - 77 74% -2  29% 14 - 8 7 - 4 C- -3 B+ +8 A B C+ F -12 D- D- B
 Sat, Feb 7 85 Miami (OH) L 74 - 90 32% -13  0% 14 - 9 D- -12 D+ -3 D C+ B F+ -9 C F B+
 Wed, Feb 11 239 @Old Dominion W 81 - 79 52% -7  10% 15 - 9 8 - 4 C +1 B- +5 A+ F C D+ -4 D D D-
 Sat, Feb 14 262 @Georgia Southern L 87 - 101 57% -11  13% 15 - 10 8 - 5 F+ -17 C +0 C- F B+ F -16 F C+ B-
 Mon, Feb 16 188 South Alabama W 84 - 80 65% +8  89% 16 - 10 9 - 5 C -1 A +13 B+ A- A+ F -14 F F+ B
 Thu, Feb 19 174 @Appalachian St. W 94 - 93 39% -6  8% 17 - 10 10 - 5 C+ +3 A+ +26 A+ B A+ F -23 F F F
 Sat, Feb 21 238 @Coastal Carolina W 76 - 75 52%
 Tue, Feb 24 239 Old Dominion W 83 - 77 73%
 Fri, Feb 27 262 Georgia Southern W 88 - 80 77%
Totals 19 - 11 12 - 6 -1 C+ +2 D- B D D+ -3 B- C D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B+ C- B- B 30% 40% 45% D C+ C+ B- B- C- D C D D+ D+ B- C- C- 35% 23% 43% B- C D B C- C D C+ D
1.12 65% 37% 36% +3 -1 1.06 31% 1.1 .35 17% .26 73% .19 1.13 61% 35% 35% +1 -1 1.03 34% 0.9 .32 17% .35 72% .18
Nov
3		 Massachusetts F+ A+ F C B+ 33% 14% 53% C B A- F C F D C+ D A+ C+ D- B+ B- 43% 22% 35% C- C+ A- A+ A+ A+ F A F
0.96 82% 29% 33% +6 +1 1.16 36% 0.8 .29 32% .34 74% .25 0.88 57% 45% 29% -1 0 1.00 25% 0.4 .10 25% .58 58% .34
Nov
8		 Toledo B A+ F A+ A+ 25% 10% 65% C- A+ C+ F D- D- D+ D- D A- A+ F C B 41% 29% 30% C B F A+ B+ A- D- D+ D-
1.20 85% 20% 44% +15 0 1.33 36% 0.7 .24 21% .21 67% .14 1.03 35% 69% 35% 0 -1 1.00 37% 0.6 .22 20% .33 79% .26
Nov
12		 Elon B B C A A- 31% 15% 54% C+ B+ D A+ A+ D B+ D+ B D F A B C- 37% 7% 56% C C- C- C C D- C- D+ D+
1.26 63% 38% 43% +8 0 1.19 28% 2.1 .59 18% .35 68% .24 1.16 71% 25% 31% +2 +2 1.09 33% 1.0 .33 13% .33 73% .24
Nov
15		 Virginia B+ D A+ F C 28% 30% 42% D+ C B A+ A+ D- A+ A- A+ F B- C- F D 42% 13% 45% C- D+ A- F D F+ F C- F
1.03 47% 50% 23% -7 -2 0.85 31% 1.8 .56 20% .40 79% .31 1.37 57% 43% 44% +7 +1 1.18 35% 1.5 .51 12% .54 72% .39
Nov
20		 Arkansas Pine Bluff B A+ D A+ A+ 32% 26% 42% F A+ D- F F C+ D- A- D+ B F+ C+ A+ B 17% 50% 33% A+ A C C+ C B F D+ F
1.28 78% 33% 54% +18 -1 1.35 28% 0.6 .16 14% .32 81% .26 0.91 67% 35% 24% -5 -5 0.81 26% 0.9 .23 21% .43 77% .33
Nov
23		 Mercyhurst D+ D+ F A+ A- 25% 18% 57% D- B+ D+ F F+ C+ F+ A+ D+ C+ C B A+ A- 40% 34% 26% D+ B+ F+ A C+ C F A+ D+
1.09 55% 13% 48% +6 -1 1.14 30% 0.8 .24 17% .31 81% .25 0.95 55% 35% 15% -9 -2 0.80 32% 0.8 .27 16% .30 56% .17
Nov
26		 Lipscomb F D- F F F 35% 22% 43% C F C- A B- F A A- A F+ F+ C F F 37% 17% 46% B+ F A- A A B F A+ F
0.86 53% 25% 17% -15 0 0.70 29% 1.3 .37 22% .36 77% .28 1.16 68% 33% 50% +14 0 1.31 18% 0.8 .15 19% .41 65% .27
Dec
3		 UNC Wilmington B- A+ C+ F C+ 17% 42% 42% F C- B A+ A+ D- F A+ C- C+ F+ A+ B+ A+ 21% 38% 40% A+ A+ F A+ B- F F D F
1.11 88% 40% 25% 0 -4 0.94 31% 1.5 .47 18% .18 100% .18 1.12 67% 13% 29% -11 -3 0.74 43% 0.8 .33 10% .69 74% .51
Dec
6		 Ohio C+ A- D- F D 48% 11% 41% A- D+ B- B+ B C C+ C+ C+ F+ A+ F F D- 33% 24% 43% C+ D B- C- C+ F+ F C+ F
1.12 67% 33% 22% -4 +2 0.98 37% 1.2 .43 17% .33 75% .25 1.21 44% 54% 43% +5 -1 1.11 25% 1.0 .25 12% .46 69% .31
Dec
10		 Western Kentucky C+ D+ B- C+ C 26% 40% 34% F D+ B B B+ A+ F D F A C+ A- B C+ 35% 27% 38% A- B- C- A+ A+ B- D- B- D+
1.12 53% 43% 35% +1 -3 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 12% .25 67% .17 0.89 50% 29% 30% -8 -1 0.85 34% 0.4 .14 16% .36 71% .26
Dec
13		 Wright St. B A+ B D B- 25% 27% 48% F+ C+ A- B+ A C- C+ A+ B D- D A F D- 24% 29% 47% A+ D+ F A+ A+ F A+ A- A+
1.20 75% 46% 30% +4 -2 1.06 39% 1.2 .45 17% .31 81% .25 1.17 64% 29% 43% +5 -2 1.08 41% 0.5 .20 8% .10 67% .07
Dec
20		 Troy F A F F F 25% 26% 49% F+ F B F D+ D- D+ F+ D A- A+ A+ B- A+ 47% 4% 49% F+ A C+ B+ B B- F F F
0.90 69% 29% 19% -11 -2 0.77 37% 0.8 .28 20% .25 64% .16 1.00 42% 0% 32% -11 +3 0.86 32% 0.8 .27 19% .41 83% .33
Dec
31		 Georgia St. C A+ F D C+ 33% 16% 51% C- C+ D- A+ A F+ A F B- D- F D B F 23% 38% 40% A D- D- D- F+ C+ F F F
1.12 76% 25% 31% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.8 .48 20% .37 64% .23 1.07 67% 40% 29% -1 -3 0.94 32% 1.2 .38 17% .37 87% .32
Jan
3		 Appalachian St. A B- A- A+ A+ 34% 26% 40% D A+ F D F+ B A+ C+ A+ F+ F+ F B- F+ 33% 27% 41% A D- D D- D- C F A F
1.25 59% 46% 55% +15 -1 1.30 21% 0.8 .18 11% .40 72% .29 1.15 69% 46% 30% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.2 .38 16% .52 55% .29
Jan
7		 James Madison C- F A+ F F+ 29% 27% 43% F+ F B- A B+ B+ F+ B D B C A+ A A 35% 19% 46% B- A- F B+ D+ C+ B A B+
1.07 33% 50% 27% -8 -2 0.82 33% 1.2 .41 10% .29 75% .21 1.03 59% 22% 27% -7 0 0.88 36% 0.9 .33 18% .26 62% .16
Jan
10		 Georgia St. D C F+ D D 34% 20% 46% D+ D B C B- F A F B- D B+ C- A+ B+ 31% 26% 43% D+ B F F F B F F+ F
0.99 59% 30% 30% -4 0 0.94 38% 1.0 .38 23% .39 59% .23 1.10 46% 36% 22% -12 -1 0.76 41% 1.4 .56 19% .66 85% .55
Jan
14		 Coastal Carolina B+ B- B- A+ A+ 20% 52% 28% F A- B- F D+ A- D F F+ F F F F F 33% 24% 43% D F A F B- B- D F F
1.20 58% 42% 53% +10 -5 1.12 31% 0.8 .23 9% .25 63% .16 1.23 75% 58% 43% +16 -1 1.33 17% 1.3 .21 17% .30 88% .26
Jan
17		 James Madison C- C F C+ D+ 35% 28% 37% D- D A+ D- B+ F A+ A+ A+ C A+ C- D C+ 26% 23% 51% A B- F D+ F B+ F+ B+ D
1.13 56% 23% 35% -4 -1 0.91 46% 0.9 .41 19% .51 82% .42 1.05 42% 36% 38% -2 -1 0.96 36% 1.1 .40 20% .37 65% .24
Jan
22		 Louisiana Monroe A+ C F A+ A+ 26% 7% 67% C A+ A+ A- A+ D F A F+ A A+ F A+ A+ 35% 19% 46% C- A+ C C C C- F C F
1.55 63% 25% 51% +18 +1 1.39 54% 1.3 .71 18% .15 78% .11 0.81 28% 50% 17% -20 0 0.62 24% 1.0 .24 16% .47 72% .34
Jan
28		 Texas St. D A- C- F D 40% 25% 35% D D F C+ F+ A+ F F F C+ B+ A+ F C+ 48% 24% 28% D- C C+ F F+ C D- A C-
0.99 70% 36% 25% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.0 .17 10% .19 58% .11 1.05 50% 25% 43% -3 0 0.96 31% 1.3 .39 19% .34 68% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Arkansas St. C+ C+ D A B- 27% 38% 35% F C A- C- B F+ D A C A D- A+ A+ A+ 32% 11% 57% C- A+ D A+ A C- F A+ F
1.10 62% 33% 41% +3 -3 1.02 35% 1.0 .35 19% .29 80% .23 0.96 67% 20% 19% -12 +1 0.79 42% 0.7 .28 19% .49 64% .31
Feb
4		 Southern Miss B+ A+ A B A+ 32% 30% 38% F A C+ A B C+ B+ C B F F A+ F F 12% 35% 53% A+ D- F A D- B F B+ F
1.22 80% 50% 39% +13 -2 1.26 29% 1.2 .35 17% .40 68% .27 1.16 100% 13% 43% +4 -4 1.02 46% 0.8 .38 21% .57 70% .40
Feb
7		 Miami (OH) D+ A+ F F D 32% 20% 48% C D A F+ C+ B C F D- F+ F A+ F C- 40% 23% 36% B- C F F F B+ D C D+
1.05 78% 27% 26% -2 0 0.98 39% 0.7 .28 16% .29 59% .17 1.28 79% 18% 41% +8 0 1.17 41% 1.6 .66 18% .37 76% .28
Feb
11		 Old Dominion B- A C A+ A+ 38% 25% 36% D+ A+ F F F C F+ F F D+ D- F C+ F+ 32% 36% 32% A- D B F D D- A- A+ A
1.15 71% 36% 50% +13 -1 1.27 14% 0.5 .07 14% .28 65% .18 1.12 67% 45% 33% +5 -2 1.07 21% 1.6 .32 13% .21 62% .13
Feb
14		 Georgia Southern C F+ B+ B C 34% 19% 47% D C- F F F B+ B- B+ B F F+ A+ F F 37% 8% 56% C- F D A C+ B- F F F
1.12 50% 45% 37% +1 0 1.03 27% 0.8 .22 15% .38 80% .31 1.30 63% 25% 48% +13 +2 1.31 31% 0.9 .28 17% .50 81% .40
Feb
16		 South Alabama A A+ F B- A- 14% 12% 74% D B+ D+ A+ A- A+ F+ F F+ F F A C- F 47% 29% 24% B+ F F A+ F+ B A D B+
1.30 100% 29% 36% +7 -1 1.14 29% 1.6 .47 11% .16 67% .10 1.24 83% 27% 33% +8 -1 1.18 41% 0.9 .38 15% .24 69% .16
Feb
19		 Appalachian St. A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 32% 25% 43% D A+ D+ A+ B A+ A- C+ B+ F C- F F F 35% 5% 60% F+ F F F F F F F+ F
1.41 65% 62% 48% +17 -1 1.34 27% 1.3 .35 8% .34 71% .24 1.40 60% 50% 38% +5 +2 1.16 39% 1.6 .64 11% .67 70% .47



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 26.3 29.8 56.4 1st
2nd 5.4 18.8 24.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 11.8 11.9 3rd
4th 0.6 3.9 4.5 4th
5th 1.5 1.5 5th
6th 1.3 1.3 6th
7th 0.2 0.2 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 3.6 21.4 45.1 29.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 29.8    17.4 12.4
12-6 58.3% 26.3    0.5 5.1 12.2 8.4
11-7 1.3% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 56.4% 56.4 18.0 17.5 12.2 8.5 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 29.8% 26.8% 26.8% 13.8 0.1 2.5 4.7 0.8 0.0 21.8
12-6 45.1% 18.9% 18.9% 14.2 0.0 1.0 5.0 2.5 0.1 36.6
11-7 21.4% 7.4% 7.4% 14.3 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 19.8
10-8 3.6% 3.9% 3.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.5
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.3% 18.3% 0.0% 14.0 81.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.0% 100.0% 13.8 0.7 30.9 58.4 10.0 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.0%
Lose Out 1.5%