Northwestern
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.0#66
Expected Predictive Rating+9.6#67
Pace61.9#339
Improvement+1.1#116

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#96
First Shot+2.0#118
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#128
Layup/Dunks+0.3#173
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#73
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#265
Freethrows+2.7#56
Improvement+1.3#82

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#30
First Shot+2.4#104
After Offensive Rebounds+3.6#12
Layups/Dunks-1.6#232
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#83
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#110
Freethrows+0.7#140
Improvement-0.2#192
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.4% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 4.3% 5.4% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.9% 32.4% 17.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.1% 31.5% 16.9%
Average Seed 8.7 8.6 9.0
.500 or above 64.5% 71.6% 48.1%
.500 or above in Conference 32.1% 35.2% 24.7%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 3.8% 6.7%
First Four5.3% 5.8% 4.2%
First Round24.9% 29.2% 15.2%
Second Round12.2% 14.6% 6.6%
Sweet Sixteen3.4% 4.2% 1.7%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.2% 0.6%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Neutral) - 69.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 11
Quad 24 - 48 - 14
Quad 34 - 112 - 15
Quad 45 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 251   Lehigh W 90-46 93%     1 - 0 +36.1 +14.0 +23.6
  Nov 09, 2024 46   @ Dayton L 66-71 33%     1 - 1 +8.6 -1.3 +9.8
  Nov 12, 2024 217   Illinois-Chicago W 83-74 91%     2 - 1 +2.9 +3.0 -0.4
  Nov 15, 2024 316   Eastern Illinois W 67-58 OT 96%     3 - 1 -2.7 -4.3 +2.3
  Nov 19, 2024 122   Montana St. W 72-69 82%     4 - 1 +2.3 +4.9 -2.3
  Nov 22, 2024 258   Pepperdine W 68-50 94%     5 - 1 +9.6 -4.4 +15.1
  Nov 28, 2024 54   Butler L 69-71 47%     5 - 2 +7.7 +4.1 +3.5
  Nov 29, 2024 104   UNLV W 66-61 67%     6 - 2 +9.4 +3.2 +6.8
  Dec 03, 2024 50   @ Iowa L 79-80 34%     6 - 3 0 - 1 +12.3 +11.2 +1.1
  Dec 06, 2024 14   Illinois W 70-66 OT 37%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +16.3 -1.9 +17.9
  Dec 15, 2024 111   Georgia Tech W 72-67 70%    
  Dec 21, 2024 97   DePaul W 71-65 73%    
  Dec 29, 2024 152   Northeastern W 70-59 86%    
  Jan 02, 2025 31   @ Penn St. L 67-74 26%    
  Jan 05, 2025 21   @ Purdue L 62-71 22%    
  Jan 12, 2025 27   Michigan St. L 66-67 46%    
  Jan 16, 2025 19   Maryland L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 19, 2025 16   @ Michigan L 62-71 20%    
  Jan 22, 2025 39   Indiana W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 26, 2025 14   @ Illinois L 65-74 20%    
  Jan 29, 2025 58   Rutgers W 70-68 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 35   Wisconsin L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 04, 2025 106   USC W 71-63 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 75   @ Washington L 66-68 45%    
  Feb 11, 2025 22   @ Oregon L 63-71 22%    
  Feb 16, 2025 44   Nebraska W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 20, 2025 29   @ Ohio St. L 64-71 27%    
  Feb 25, 2025 112   @ Minnesota W 62-60 59%    
  Feb 28, 2025 50   Iowa W 73-71 56%    
  Mar 03, 2025 18   UCLA L 61-64 41%    
  Mar 08, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 63-72 22%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.7 0.1 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 1.8 0.2 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.8 0.8 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.3 2.6 2.4 0.2 5.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.0 1.1 0.0 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.5 3.0 0.2 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.6 1.1 0.0 8.1 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 4.8 3.1 0.2 9.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.5 4.9 0.9 10.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.2 2.1 0.1 10.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 3.0 0.7 0.0 8.6 16th
17th 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.2 17th
18th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 18th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.2 7.6 11.4 13.6 14.9 13.8 11.9 8.5 5.7 3.4 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 66.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 34.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 100.0% 8.7% 91.3% 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.3% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 3.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.6% 100.0% 9.9% 90.1% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.7% 98.9% 10.6% 88.3% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
13-7 3.4% 97.9% 5.1% 92.8% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.7%
12-8 5.7% 89.9% 3.2% 86.8% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.6 89.6%
11-9 8.5% 77.5% 1.5% 76.0% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.7 0.8 0.0 1.9 77.2%
10-10 11.9% 55.3% 1.1% 54.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.1 0.2 5.3 54.8%
9-11 13.8% 21.2% 0.6% 20.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.7 0.3 10.9 20.7%
8-12 14.9% 4.5% 0.3% 4.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 14.2 4.3%
7-13 13.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 0.4%
6-14 11.4% 11.4
5-15 7.6% 7.6
4-16 4.2% 4.2
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 27.9% 1.0% 26.8% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 0.6 0.0 72.1 27.1%