Northwestern
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.2#59
Expected Predictive Rating+7.1#87
Pace67.8#225
Improvement-0.7#234

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#45
First Shot+4.9#63
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#57
Layup/Dunks+6.5#19
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#281
Freethrows+1.1#109
Improvement+0.8#108

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#104
First Shot+2.1#102
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#185
Layups/Dunks-0.1#178
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#234
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#49
Freethrows-1.2#265
Improvement-1.6#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 1.4% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.5% 19.9% 9.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14.4% 19.8% 9.3%
Average Seed 9.3 9.2 9.5
.500 or above 49.8% 62.9% 37.3%
.500 or above in Conference 15.2% 18.4% 12.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.0% 5.4% 8.5%
First Four4.2% 5.3% 3.1%
First Round12.5% 17.2% 7.9%
Second Round5.7% 7.9% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 2.0% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Neutral) - 48.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 43 - 12
Quad 24 - 36 - 15
Quad 34 - 110 - 16
Quad 46 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 328 Mercyhurst W 70-47 97%     1 - 0 +10.0 -5.6 +16.4
  Fri, Nov 7 289 Boston University W 76-52 95%     2 - 0 +14.0 +6.8 +11.1
  Mon, Nov 10 329 Cleveland St. W 110-63 97%     3 - 0 +34.0 +22.7 +8.9
  Fri, Nov 14 113 @DePaul W 81-79 60%     4 - 0 +8.5 +16.0 -7.4
  Fri, Nov 21 25 Virginia L 78-83 29%     4 - 1 +9.9 +9.3 +0.6
  Sun, Nov 23 87 South Carolina W 79-77 61%     5 - 1 +8.3 +17.6 -9.1
  Thu, Nov 27 54 Oklahoma St. L 81-86 47%     5 - 2 +5.1 +8.4 -3.2
  Wed, Dec 3 46 @Wisconsin L 73-85 32%     5 - 3 0 - 1 +2.0 +7.3 -5.4
  Sat, Dec 6 32 Ohio St. L 82-86 44%     5 - 4 0 - 2 +6.7 +11.3 -4.6
  Sat, Dec 13 327 Jackson St. W 93-53 97%     6 - 4 +27.1 +11.8 +13.8
  Tue, Dec 16 212 Valparaiso W 86-70 92%     7 - 4 +9.6 +13.7 -3.7
  Sat, Dec 20 58 Butler L 79-80 49%    
  Tue, Dec 30 286 Howard W 84-65 96%    
  Sat, Jan 3 97 Minnesota W 74-67 74%    
  Thu, Jan 8 11 @Michigan St. L 66-78 13%    
  Sun, Jan 11 129 @Rutgers W 76-72 66%    
  Wed, Jan 14 12 Illinois L 76-82 30%    
  Sat, Jan 17 24 Nebraska L 75-78 41%    
  Wed, Jan 21 36 @USC L 76-82 28%    
  Sat, Jan 24 30 @UCLA L 70-78 23%    
  Thu, Jan 29 105 Penn St. W 83-75 77%    
  Sat, Jan 31 51 Washington W 76-74 56%    
  Wed, Feb 4 12 @Illinois L 73-85 15%    
  Sun, Feb 8 23 @Iowa L 67-76 20%    
  Wed, Feb 11 1 Michigan L 72-87 9%    
  Sat, Feb 14 24 @Nebraska L 72-81 21%    
  Wed, Feb 18 95 Maryland W 80-73 73%    
  Tue, Feb 24 26 @Indiana L 71-80 22%    
  Sat, Feb 28 62 Oregon W 78-75 62%    
  Wed, Mar 4 7 Purdue L 71-79 22%    
  Sat, Mar 7 97 @Minnesota W 71-70 53%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.4 1.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 2.6 0.6 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.4 4.0 1.8 0.1 7.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 4.2 3.6 0.4 0.0 9.2 11th
12th 0.4 4.0 5.4 1.5 0.0 11.5 12th
13th 0.2 3.2 6.8 2.7 0.2 13.2 13th
14th 0.1 2.1 6.2 4.0 0.4 0.0 12.9 14th
15th 0.1 1.3 5.0 4.2 0.8 0.0 11.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.0 1.2 0.1 9.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.3 8.1 12.4 15.3 16.7 14.4 11.7 7.4 4.4 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 33.3% 0.0    0.0
15-5 6.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.3% 100.0% 4.6% 95.4% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.9% 98.5% 1.2% 97.3% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.4%
12-8 2.1% 93.2% 0.6% 92.6% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 93.2%
11-9 4.4% 82.3% 0.4% 81.9% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.8 82.2%
10-10 7.4% 56.4% 0.3% 56.1% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.0 3.2 56.3%
9-11 11.7% 23.1% 0.2% 22.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 0.1 9.0 22.9%
8-12 14.4% 5.1% 0.0% 5.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 13.7 5.1%
7-13 16.7% 0.4% 0.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 0.4%
6-14 15.3% 15.3
5-15 12.4% 12.4
4-16 8.1% 8.1
3-17 4.3% 4.3
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.5% 0.1% 14.4% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.2 2.9 3.6 3.7 0.2 85.5 14.4%