New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#135
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#153
Pace63.5#327
Improvement-3.2#345

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#153
First Shot-1.2#201
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#90
Layup/Dunks-3.1#287
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#318
Freethrows+2.0#76
Improvement-2.0#324

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#127
First Shot+0.8#138
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#176
Layups/Dunks+4.1#50
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#140
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#217
Freethrows-3.3#342
Improvement-1.2#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.1% 16.1% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.4
.500 or above 82.0% 89.7% 72.8%
.500 or above in Conference 80.6% 88.7% 70.9%
Conference Champion 17.6% 25.3% 8.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.6% 2.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round13.1% 16.1% 9.5%
Second Round1.2% 1.6% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Home) - 54.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 68 - 9
Quad 410 - 317 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 15 74 New Mexico W 76-68 37%     1 - 0 +12.8 +11.0 +2.3
  Fri, Nov 21 230 Samford W 81-72 79%     2 - 0 +1.8 +13.4 -10.5
  Tue, Nov 25 145 UC Irvine W 57-45 51%     3 - 0 +13.1 -9.5 +22.7
  Wed, Nov 26 344 Georgia St. W 77-58 88%     4 - 0 +7.4 -4.3 +10.6
  Tue, Dec 2 187 South Alabama L 75-77 63%     4 - 1 -3.9 +5.9 -9.8
  Sat, Dec 6 213 @Abilene Christian L 69-77 57%     4 - 2 -8.4 +5.6 -14.9
  Sat, Dec 13 82 Tulsa L 70-83 30%     4 - 3 -6.1 -2.9 -3.2
  Sun, Dec 21 118 Sam Houston St. W 74-73 55%    
  Fri, Jan 2 186 @Florida International W 74-73 51%    
  Sun, Jan 4 266 @Missouri St. W 67-63 65%    
  Thu, Jan 8 144 Western Kentucky W 75-72 62%    
  Sat, Jan 10 159 Middle Tennessee W 71-67 66%    
  Thu, Jan 15 108 @Liberty L 66-71 31%    
  Sat, Jan 17 287 @Delaware W 70-65 68%    
  Thu, Jan 22 266 Missouri St. W 70-60 82%    
  Sat, Jan 24 186 Florida International W 76-70 71%    
  Wed, Jan 28 287 Delaware W 73-62 84%    
  Sat, Jan 31 156 @Kennesaw St. L 75-77 44%    
  Wed, Feb 4 189 @Louisiana Tech W 63-62 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 211 @UTEP W 66-64 56%    
  Wed, Feb 11 108 Liberty W 69-68 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 273 @Jacksonville St. W 67-62 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 211 UTEP W 69-61 76%    
  Thu, Feb 26 144 @Western Kentucky L 72-75 41%    
  Sat, Feb 28 159 @Middle Tennessee L 68-70 44%    
  Thu, Mar 5 273 Jacksonville St. W 70-59 82%    
  Sat, Mar 7 156 Kennesaw St. W 78-74 64%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.2 4.7 3.6 1.8 0.7 0.1 17.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 3.5 5.7 4.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.9 3.4 0.8 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.3 5.3 7.2 9.7 11.2 12.7 12.9 11.7 9.3 6.4 3.9 1.9 0.7 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
18-2 98.4% 1.8    1.7 0.1
17-3 91.5% 3.6    3.0 0.6 0.0
16-4 73.0% 4.7    3.1 1.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 45.5% 4.2    1.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-6 17.7% 2.1    0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.6% 17.6 11.1 4.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 52.8% 52.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.7% 38.0% 38.0% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
18-2 1.9% 40.5% 40.5% 12.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1
17-3 3.9% 34.8% 34.8% 12.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 2.6
16-4 6.4% 28.4% 28.4% 12.7 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.6
15-5 9.3% 22.1% 22.1% 13.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 7.3
14-6 11.7% 18.9% 18.9% 13.3 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.1 9.5
13-7 12.9% 15.1% 15.1% 13.5 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.0
12-8 12.7% 10.0% 10.0% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 11.5
11-9 11.2% 5.6% 5.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.6
10-10 9.7% 4.3% 4.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.3
9-11 7.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.0
8-12 5.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 5.2
7-13 3.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 3.3
6-14 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.8
5-15 1.0% 1.0
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.4 3.4 1.0 0.2 86.9 0.0%