New Mexico St.
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#104
Expected Predictive Rating+8.7#69
Pace64.2#298
Improvement-4.1#352

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#67
First Shot-0.3#195
After Offensive Rebound+4.7#2
Layup/Dunks+3.2#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#103
Freethrows-3.1#333
Improvement-1.7#309

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#172
First Shot-0.1#169
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#171
Layups/Dunks+3.7#64
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#173
Freethrows-0.7#227
Improvement-2.4#330
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.7% 31.5% 24.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 2.1% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.5 12.2 12.9
.500 or above 98.7% 99.7% 97.8%
.500 or above in Conference 96.4% 97.4% 95.5%
Conference Champion 34.6% 39.6% 30.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
First Round27.4% 31.1% 24.1%
Second Round5.4% 7.1% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.7% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 47.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 3
Quad 38 - 311 - 7
Quad 410 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 73   UC Irvine W 62-51 52%     1 - 0 +14.9 -0.7 +16.6
  Nov 13, 2021 169   UTEP W 77-71 76%     2 - 0 +3.1 +5.0 -1.9
  Nov 18, 2021 70   Davidson W 75-64 40%     3 - 0 +18.1 +11.8 +7.4
  Nov 19, 2021 50   Utah St. L 58-85 32%     3 - 1 -17.7 -4.5 -15.9
  Nov 20, 2021 175   Indiana St. W 80-66 68%     4 - 1 +13.7 +9.0 +5.1
  Nov 30, 2021 200   New Mexico L 94-101 80%     4 - 2 -11.4 +5.4 -15.9
  Dec 03, 2021 169   @ UTEP W 72-69 55%     5 - 2 +6.1 +10.0 -3.6
  Dec 06, 2021 200   @ New Mexico W 78-76 OT 61%     6 - 2 +3.6 -7.5 +10.8
  Dec 11, 2021 137   @ Loyola Marymount L 70-71 47%    
  Dec 15, 2021 49   @ Washington St. L 64-72 23%    
  Dec 30, 2021 199   @ Seattle W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 01, 2022 355   Chicago St. W 81-57 99%    
  Jan 06, 2022 313   @ Lamar W 77-67 83%    
  Jan 08, 2022 292   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-71 79%    
  Jan 13, 2022 191   Tarleton St. W 66-57 78%    
  Jan 15, 2022 128   Abilene Christian W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 20, 2022 224   @ Sam Houston St. W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 22, 2022 162   @ Stephen F. Austin W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 29, 2022 123   Grand Canyon W 69-65 66%    
  Feb 03, 2022 219   California Baptist W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 05, 2022 199   Seattle W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 10, 2022 305   @ Dixie St. W 81-71 81%    
  Feb 12, 2022 132   @ Utah Valley L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 16, 2022 305   Dixie St. W 84-68 91%    
  Feb 19, 2022 123   @ Grand Canyon L 66-68 45%    
  Feb 26, 2022 355   @ Chicago St. W 78-60 94%    
  Mar 02, 2022 162   Stephen F. Austin W 74-67 73%    
  Mar 05, 2022 132   Utah Valley W 70-65 68%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.1 6.8 10.4 9.2 4.7 1.3 34.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 6.8 7.5 3.3 0.5 0.0 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 5.2 6.0 1.7 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.6 4.8 1.3 0.1 10.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 3.8 1.4 0.1 7.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.8 1.4 0.1 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.3 0.2 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.0 6.9 10.2 13.4 16.3 16.1 13.9 9.8 4.7 1.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 99.7% 4.7    4.6 0.1
16-2 94.4% 9.2    7.8 1.4 0.0
15-3 75.1% 10.4    6.5 3.4 0.4 0.0
14-4 42.1% 6.8    2.3 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 12.9% 2.1    0.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.6% 34.6 22.8 8.7 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 74.9% 56.3% 18.6% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 42.5%
17-1 4.7% 60.3% 53.4% 7.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.9 14.9%
16-2 9.8% 50.1% 47.8% 2.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.9 4.5%
15-3 13.9% 40.2% 39.6% 0.7% 12.5 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.3 1.1%
14-4 16.1% 33.5% 33.4% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.7 1.0 0.1 10.7 0.0%
13-5 16.3% 23.7% 23.7% 13.2 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 12.4
12-6 13.4% 16.1% 16.1% 13.6 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 11.2
11-7 10.2% 11.9% 11.9% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 9.0
10-8 6.9% 8.5% 8.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.3
9-9 4.0% 4.4% 4.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.8
8-10 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
7-11 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9
6-12 0.4% 0.4
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 27.7% 26.8% 0.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.4 8.3 9.6 4.6 1.1 0.1 72.3 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 5.4 3.8 9.5 20.0 25.7 21.9 5.7 2.9 1.9 7.6 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 76.9% 8.4 7.7 12.8 17.9 23.1 7.7 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 72.0% 10.1 28.0 24.0 12.0 4.0 4.0