Charlotte
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.2 178
Expected Predictive Rating -0.6 168
Pace 61.7 344
Improvement -2.5 285

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 108 B C D B- B-
Defense D+ 278 C D+ D C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 180 B 63% 72 +1.9 110
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 317 D+ 35% 267 -2.9 318
Three Pointers 47% 51 B 37% 53 +5.5 29
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 72 B +3.5 72
1st FG Attempt B 1.11 59
Second Chance B- 33.7% 89 D 0.93 311 C 0.31 168
Turnovers D 19.0% 308
Freethrows B- 0.34 84 C- 71% 217 B- 0.24 118
Total Offense C+ +2.3 108

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 40% 303 A- 7.1% 25
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 258 D+ 7.2% 308
Three Pointers C- 82% 245 D+ 1.4% 300
Total C- 53% 228 B 4.4% 50

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 209 C- 59% 215 -0.1 175
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 180 C+ 37% 146 -0.2 173
Three Pointers 42% 143 C 34% 198 +0.7 224
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 159 C +0.5 198
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 192
Second Chance C 30.0% 160 D- 1.14 321 D+ 0.34 261
Turnovers D 14.8% 302
Freethrows C- 0.33 246 B- 71% 100 C- 0.23 232
Total Defense D+ -3.5 278

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 34 B- 13.1% 88
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 205 C+ 6.1% 97
Three Pointers C 84% 177 C 1.0% 133
Total B- 52% 102 B- 6.6% 99

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 298 18.1 301
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 222 0.16 151
Improvement -0.6 #217 -1.9 #286

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 214 179 147
Conference Record 7 - 11 9 - 9 11 - 7
Conference Finish 10 7 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.9
.500 or above 24% 31% 6%
.500 or above in Conference 70% 82% 38%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Home) - 72.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 4
Quad 20 - 51 - 9
Quad 34 - 65 - 15
Quad 410 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 211 Indiana St. W 92 - 76 68% +9  87% 1 - 0 B +10 A+ +15 A- A+ A- D+ -5 C+ C- F+
 Fri, Nov 7 314 Tennessee Tech W 70 - 65 85% +10  96% 2 - 0 D+ -7 D- -7 B- A F C+ +0 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 112 Davidson L 55 - 62 44% -8  1% 2 - 1 D+ -7 F+ -9 F+ F+ C+ C+ +1 D A+ B
 Sun, Nov 16 59 @Virginia Tech L 76 - 84 11% -8  0% 2 - 2 C+ +4 A- +11 B- A- A+ D- -7 A+ D F
 Fri, Nov 21 174 @Appalachian St. L 63 - 65 38% +2  67% 2 - 3 C +0 B- +5 D+ A F+ D -5 D- D C
 Thu, Nov 27 99 Illinois St. L 69 - 79 27% -8  1% 2 - 4 C- -5 C+ +2 A+ F F D- -7 C- D F
 Fri, Nov 28 129 Richmond L 66 - 71 38% -8  0% 2 - 5 C- -3 D -5 C F B+ C+ +2 C C B
 Tue, Dec 2 288 N.C. A&T W 74 - 57 81% +17  98% 3 - 5 B- +7 C- -1 A B F A +9 A B C+
 Sun, Dec 7 28 Utah St. L 53 - 79 11% -11  24% 3 - 6 D- -14 F -13 F A+ F C- -2 B- A+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 151 @College of Charleston L 67 - 74 33% -3  25% 3 - 7 C- -4 D+ -3 C F+ D C -1 D- D+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 322 Lafayette W 81 - 67 87% +11  96% 4 - 7 C +1 A+ +15 A+ C- B F -12 D F D+
 Sun, Dec 21 106 Illinois-Chicago W 88 - 76 OT 41% -2  33% 5 - 7 B+ +13 A +13 B+ D B C -1 D A+ C
 Tue, Dec 30 152 Temple L 73 - 76 56% -5  8% 5 - 8 0 - 1 D+ -6 D+ -3 D+ C C- C- -3 F B- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 97 Wichita St. W 104 - 100 2OT 37% -4  23% 6 - 8 1 - 1 B- +6 A+ +24 B A+ A F -18 D- F C
 Wed, Jan 7 335 @Texas San Antonio W 74 - 58 76% +9  86% 7 - 8 2 - 1 B- +8 C +1 D+ C+ D+ A- +7 B C+ F
 Sun, Jan 11 233 @Rice W 74 - 73 49% +5  79% 8 - 8 3 - 1 C +0 C+ +3 A+ F F C- -2 B- B+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 77 Tulsa L 74 - 86 29% -8  4% 8 - 9 3 - 2 D+ -7 C +1 B+ F A- F+ -9 F A B-
 Sun, Jan 18 242 @East Carolina W 73 - 70 51% +7  87% 9 - 9 4 - 2 C +2 C+ +3 A+ C F C -1 C B- F
 Fri, Jan 23 163 Tulane W 73 - 70 58% +5  71% 10 - 9 5 - 2 C -0 C- -1 A B- F C+ +1 C A D+
 Wed, Jan 28 152 @Temple W 80 - 76 OT 34% -2  26% 11 - 9 6 - 2 B- +7 A+ +21 A A+ B- F -13 C+ F D-
 Fri, Jan 30 233 Rice W 80 - 70 71% +6  88% 12 - 9 7 - 2 C+ +3 A- +11 A+ D D D -6 A+ F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 97 @Wichita St. L 64 - 74 19% -5  8% 12 - 10 7 - 3 C- -2 D+ -3 B- F F C+ +0 F+ A F
 Sun, Feb 8 103 @Memphis L 54 - 77 19% -15  0% 12 - 11 7 - 4 F+ -15 F -14 F+ C- D C- -1 B+ F F
 Sun, Feb 15 335 Texas San Antonio L 79 - 88 89% +4  69% 12 - 12 7 - 5 F -23 C+ +2 A- C F F -26 F F F
 Wed, Feb 18 77 @Tulsa L 74 - 79 14% -6  0% 12 - 13 7 - 6 B- +6 B- +5 A+ C- D C+ +0 C+ B B-
 Sat, Feb 21 242 East Carolina W 76 - 70 72%
 Wed, Feb 25 138 North Texas W 67 - 66 52%
 Sun, Mar 1 118 @Florida Atlantic L 71 - 78 25%
 Wed, Mar 4 123 UAB L 73 - 74 46%
 Sun, Mar 8 57 @South Florida L 71 - 85 10%
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 9 -1 C+ +2 A+ B B- D+ -4 B C- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B D+ B B 38% 25% 47% B- B B- D C D B- C- B- D+ C- C+ C C 38% 21% 42% C C C D- D+ D C- B- C-
1.12 63% 35% 37% +3 +1 1.11 34% 0.9 .31 19% .34 71% .24 1.14 59% 37% 34% 0 0 1.03 30% 1.1 .34 15% .33 71% .24
Nov
3		 Indiana St. A+ B F A+ B 51% 12% 37% A A- A+ C+ A+ A- A+ D A+ D+ D+ C B C+ 44% 10% 46% C+ C+ B- F C- F+ F D F
1.33 62% 0% 47% +5 +2 1.16 53% 1.0 .53 12% .49 67% .33 1.10 65% 40% 29% 0 +2 1.06 23% 1.3 .29 14% .36 71% .25
Nov
7		 Tennessee Tech D- C+ F+ A+ B 33% 25% 43% D B- B A- A F A+ D- A C+ C+ A+ D C 51% 21% 28% F+ C- C- F F A+ F A+ D
1.07 62% 30% 47% +7 -1 1.15 37% 1.4 .52 29% .43 70% .30 0.99 55% 25% 36% -3 +1 0.97 32% 1.7 .55 26% .51 48% .25
Nov
11		 Davidson F+ D- F D F 40% 16% 44% A- F+ A- F F+ C+ A+ F B C+ A- F F D- 29% 21% 50% B- D A+ B- A+ B B- C B-
0.95 50% 14% 30% -10 +1 0.84 39% 0.5 .20 17% .42 55% .23 1.07 50% 56% 43% +8 -1 1.17 20% 1.0 .20 19% .25 67% .17
Nov
16		 Virginia Tech A- D+ A C- B 31% 29% 40% D B- A+ D+ A- A+ A+ F A+ D- C- A+ C- A+ 23% 23% 53% A- A+ F+ C+ D F F F F
1.15 53% 50% 32% +1 -2 1.00 43% 0.9 .40 12% .41 63% .26 1.27 64% 0% 36% -6 -1 0.87 39% 1.1 .41 9% .60 83% .50
Nov
21		 Appalachian St. B- C- F F D- 49% 9% 42% A D+ A+ B- A F+ D F+ D- D C+ D- D- F+ 35% 18% 48% C+ D- C F D C F D+ F
1.11 55% 25% 26% -8 +2 0.91 42% 1.0 .42 18% .24 64% .15 1.15 57% 43% 37% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.2 .37 16% .48 65% .32
Nov
27		 Illinois St. C+ B F+ A+ A+ 36% 25% 39% C+ A+ B- F F F A+ F A D- B- F C- C- 41% 15% 43% D- C- D+ D D F F B- F
1.05 63% 27% 53% +10 -1 1.20 29% 0.3 .09 21% .44 61% .27 1.20 58% 57% 35% +4 +1 1.11 30% 1.2 .37 11% .53 68% .36
Nov
28		 Richmond D A+ C+ F C- 33% 11% 56% A C F F+ F B+ A+ D A C+ C C D+ C+ 36% 19% 45% F C D B+ C B F A+ F
1.00 73% 40% 24% -3 +1 0.98 18% 1.0 .18 14% .42 67% .28 1.08 60% 38% 37% +3 0 1.07 29% 0.9 .26 17% .62 59% .37
Dec
2		 N.C. A&T C- A+ F A+ A 41% 11% 48% B A B- B B F B C B A B C- A+ A+ 34% 24% 41% C- A A- D+ B C+ F A F
1.13 72% 20% 43% +10 +1 1.25 31% 1.1 .35 20% .36 68% .25 0.87 50% 40% 18% -12 -1 0.76 23% 1.1 .27 20% .55 66% .36
Dec
7		 Utah St. F D+ F F F 20% 20% 60% D+ F A- A+ A+ F A+ F C+ C- F A+ A+ B- 48% 10% 42% C- B- A- A+ A+ F C F D-
0.82 50% 25% 21% -16 -1 0.68 39% 1.3 .50 29% .44 55% .24 1.22 79% 20% 24% +2 +2 1.10 30% 0.9 .27 9% .32 84% .27
Dec
14		 College of Charleston D+ A+ C+ F C 28% 16% 56% B- C D+ F F+ D C+ A+ B+ C F+ F B F+ 40% 26% 34% C+ D- B F D+ C+ B+ A+ A+
0.98 79% 38% 25% -2 0 0.98 27% 0.7 .18 16% .25 86% .21 1.09 70% 46% 29% +5 -1 1.10 26% 1.4 .35 18% .29 63% .18
Dec
18		 Lafayette A+ D D A+ A+ 27% 13% 60% B- A+ D- A- C- B F A+ F+ F F+ A+ F+ D- 29% 20% 51% A- D F D F D+ A+ A+ A+
1.37 54% 33% 55% +17 0 1.38 26% 1.3 .33 12% .17 89% .15 1.13 67% 10% 38% 0 -1 1.02 35% 1.0 .35 15% .08 50% .04
Dec
21		 Illinois-Chicago A C- C- A- B 45% 12% 43% B+ B+ A+ F D B A+ A+ A+ C A+ F F D 42% 19% 38% D+ D C- A+ A+ C D A- C-
1.23 55% 33% 38% 0 +2 1.06 47% 0.6 .26 18% .60 86% .51 1.07 41% 50% 45% +1 0 1.06 37% 0.6 .23 18% .36 67% .24
Dec
30		 Temple D+ B- F F D 51% 15% 34% B+ D+ C- B- C C- A+ A+ A+ C- D+ B+ F F+ 54% 19% 27% F+ F A+ F B- C+ D- A+ C+
1.08 63% 29% 25% -4 +2 0.98 28% 1.1 .31 16% .49 86% .42 1.12 62% 33% 46% +6 +1 1.17 18% 1.4 .25 15% .41 63% .26
Jan
3		 Wichita St. A+ D- A+ B B- 39% 16% 45% A- B A+ A+ A+ A A+ A A+ F F+ A- D D- 42% 18% 40% D+ D- F F F C D+ F F
1.39 50% 56% 36% +1 +1 1.05 45% 1.4 .63 12% .58 76% .44 1.34 65% 30% 36% +3 +1 1.09 56% 1.3 .73 15% .35 82% .28
Jan
7		 Texas San Antonio C A- D F D 39% 6% 55% B+ D+ B D+ C+ D+ C+ D- C A- A+ F B- B+ 37% 12% 52% D- B A+ F C+ F B A+ A-
1.15 68% 33% 26% -3 +2 1.00 42% 1.0 .42 17% .28 67% .19 0.90 32% 50% 30% -12 +1 0.81 20% 1.3 .25 12% .21 58% .12
Jan
11		 Rice C+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 31% 21% 49% B A+ D- F F F A+ F A C- D B- C+ C 18% 41% 41% A+ B- F+ A+ B+ D F F F
1.15 83% 38% 47% +17 -1 1.36 27% 0.6 .17 20% .52 59% .31 1.13 63% 33% 33% -2 -4 0.91 43% 0.6 .26 15% .55 80% .44
Jan
14		 Tulsa C C+ A+ C+ B+ 46% 14% 40% B+ B+ F F F A- C+ A+ A- F+ C+ F F F 56% 8% 35% D- F F A+ A B- F+ D+ F+
1.11 61% 57% 35% +5 +1 1.14 17% 0.4 .07 12% .29 88% .26 1.29 56% 50% 53% +10 +3 1.27 39% 0.7 .29 16% .39 82% .32
Jan
18		 East Carolina C+ D+ A+ A+ A 51% 5% 44% A+ A+ C C+ C F C A+ B C C B- B C 44% 31% 25% C+ C A+ F B- F B+ B B+
1.11 55% 100% 47% +10 +3 1.28 30% 1.2 .35 27% .27 85% .23 1.06 54% 35% 29% -5 -1 0.91 23% 1.3 .30 8% .30 67% .20
Jan
23		 Tulane C- A+ F C+ A 45% 9% 45% A A B- C+ B- F B- B- B C+ D F A+ C 36% 23% 40% B- C A+ F A D+ D F+ F+
1.07 80% 0% 35% +7 +2 1.20 37% 1.0 .37 25% .35 72% .26 1.03 65% 55% 21% -2 -1 0.98 7% 2.0 .14 13% .41 83% .34
Jan
28		 Temple A+ A F A+ A 39% 14% 48% B- A A+ C A+ B- A+ D- A+ F F F A+ C 27% 24% 49% B+ C+ F F F D- F F F
1.38 71% 17% 43% +8 +1 1.20 52% 1.1 .55 14% .56 68% .38 1.31 73% 50% 25% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.2 .44 10% .56 93% .52
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
30		 Rice A- C+ A A+ A+ 28% 33% 38% D A+ B F D D A+ C+ A+ D B+ B- A+ A+ 8% 38% 54% A+ A+ F F F C- F D+ F
1.31 64% 46% 53% +15 -2 1.28 38% 0.7 .28 18% .64 75% .48 1.15 50% 33% 23% -11 -4 0.71 54% 1.3 .71 16% .41 71% .29
Feb
4		 Wichita St. D+ D+ B B+ B 35% 33% 33% D+ B- C F F F C- B- C C+ D F C F+ 43% 20% 37% C- F+ A+ B A F F A+ C+
0.96 53% 44% 38% +2 -2 1.02 28% 0.4 .11 23% .27 71% .19 1.11 62% 50% 33% +4 0 1.10 29% 0.9 .26 9% .40 50% .20
Feb
8		 Memphis F D+ A+ F F+ 22% 22% 56% D F+ F A+ C- D F F F C- C- B+ A- B 34% 32% 34% A- B+ B F F F C C C
0.78 55% 55% 18% -11 -1 0.78 22% 1.3 .27 23% .17 56% .09 1.11 61% 29% 28% -5 -2 0.89 33% 1.8 .61 14% .30 72% .22
Feb
15		 Texas San Antonio C+ A+ F A A 33% 8% 59% B- A- C- C C F D+ F F+ F D- A+ C- F 47% 15% 38% F F D+ F F F D- F F
1.20 75% 0% 41% +9 +1 1.22 35% 1.1 .39 20% .25 54% .13 1.34 62% 25% 33% -1 +1 1.04 32% 1.5 .48 5% .32 90% .29
Feb
18		 Tulsa B- A+ F+ A+ A+ 33% 14% 53% C+ A+ D+ B- C- D F A+ F C+ B+ A+ F+ C 24% 6% 69% B C+ B- B- B B- C A B-
1.13 75% 29% 42% +11 0 1.24 23% 1.2 .27 18% .15 88% .13 1.20 50% 0% 41% +3 +1 1.10 29% 1.2 .35 17% .33 72% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.4 0.3 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 7.2 4.0 0.1 11.3 4th
5th 1.6 12.2 0.6 14.3 5th
6th 0.0 9.5 4.6 14.1 6th
7th 0.6 16.4 0.5 17.4 7th
8th 0.0 5.4 8.4 0.0 13.8 8th
9th 0.4 12.9 1.1 14.4 9th
10th 3.9 5.8 0.0 9.7 10th
11th 1.2 0.1 1.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 5.5 24.7 37.1 24.7 7.3 0.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 4.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.6% 2.6% 2.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 7.3% 2.9% 2.9% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.1
10-8 24.7% 1.4% 1.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 24.4
9-9 37.1% 0.6% 0.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 36.9
8-10 24.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 24.6
7-11 5.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.5
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 14.2 99.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 3.1%