Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#249
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#259
Pace75.0#43
Improvement+2.5#37

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#191
First Shot-1.5#221
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#133
Layup/Dunks-6.3#344
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#46
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#157
Freethrows+1.6#92
Improvement+1.8#51

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#304
First Shot-0.7#194
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#349
Layups/Dunks-1.1#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#144
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#85
Freethrows-3.0#333
Improvement+0.6#124
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 n/a 14.1
.500 or above 4.8% 18.6% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 12.1% 24.2% 11.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 35.1% 20.5% 35.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 2.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 33 - 73 - 16
Quad 45 - 49 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2024 71   @ Bradley L 72-85 8%     0 - 1 -2.0 -2.6 +1.5
  Nov 16, 2024 233   Arkansas Little Rock L 64-81 58%     0 - 2 -23.9 -11.9 -11.5
  Nov 25, 2024 125   @ Troy L 72-86 18%     0 - 3 -8.9 +1.0 -9.7
  Nov 27, 2024 222   Merrimack W 76-74 45%     1 - 3 -1.3 +0.8 -2.2
  Nov 30, 2024 351   Houston Christian W 78-71 85%     2 - 3 -8.6 +0.4 -8.6
  Dec 03, 2024 42   @ St. Mary's L 74-82 OT 5%     2 - 4 +6.3 +4.0 +2.8
  Dec 07, 2024 33   @ Arkansas L 69-89 3%    
  Dec 15, 2024 289   @ North Dakota L 77-78 46%    
  Dec 29, 2024 282   @ Army L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 04, 2025 220   @ Tulane L 75-79 34%    
  Jan 07, 2025 225   Tulsa W 79-77 57%    
  Jan 11, 2025 94   Wichita St. L 74-81 25%    
  Jan 14, 2025 168   @ Rice L 70-77 26%    
  Jan 18, 2025 77   North Texas L 62-71 21%    
  Jan 21, 2025 124   @ UAB L 77-87 19%    
  Jan 25, 2025 118   Temple L 77-81 35%    
  Jan 29, 2025 92   @ Florida Atlantic L 77-91 11%    
  Feb 01, 2025 77   @ North Texas L 59-74 9%    
  Feb 05, 2025 220   Tulane W 78-76 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 159   East Carolina L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 12, 2025 94   @ Wichita St. L 71-84 12%    
  Feb 15, 2025 225   @ Tulsa L 76-80 36%    
  Feb 19, 2025 148   South Florida L 77-79 42%    
  Feb 23, 2025 159   @ East Carolina L 69-77 25%    
  Mar 02, 2025 168   Rice L 73-74 46%    
  Mar 04, 2025 32   Memphis L 75-90 10%    
  Mar 09, 2025 205   @ Charlotte L 69-75 31%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.2 0.8 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.7 0.2 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.3 2.8 0.4 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.1 4.7 1.0 0.0 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.6 2.2 0.1 10.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 3.3 6.8 3.6 0.3 14.3 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 4.2 7.6 4.9 0.5 18.3 12th
13th 1.0 3.7 7.3 7.1 3.9 0.7 0.0 23.8 13th
Total 1.0 3.8 8.3 11.7 15.0 15.4 13.4 11.4 7.9 5.6 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 35.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 40.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 8.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 13.5% 13.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.4% 2.5% 2.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 0.8% 4.5% 4.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
10-8 3.4% 0.7% 0.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
9-9 5.6% 0.4% 0.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5
8-10 7.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 7.9
7-11 11.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 11.3
6-12 13.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.3
5-13 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.4
4-14 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.0
3-15 11.7% 11.7
2-16 8.3% 8.3
1-17 3.8% 3.8
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%