Texas San Antonio
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.2#312
Expected Predictive Rating-9.2#316
Pace68.5#171
Improvement+0.4#144

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#255
First Shot-3.4#295
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#108
Layup/Dunks-3.3#309
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#136
Freethrows+1.3#78
Improvement+0.4#119

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#327
First Shot-3.1#275
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#352
Layups/Dunks-1.4#243
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#168
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#279
Freethrows+0.4#152
Improvement+0.0#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 99.6% 97.4% 99.9%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 14.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 40 - 10
Quad 32 - 82 - 18
Quad 44 - 56 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 245   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 55-75 26%     0 - 1 -21.6 -20.4 -1.2
  Nov 17, 2022 209   Texas St. W 61-56 37%     1 - 1 +0.3 -8.2 +8.8
  Nov 22, 2022 287   Prairie View W 82-75 55%     2 - 1 -2.4 +6.0 -8.6
  Nov 25, 2022 240   Grambling St. L 55-75 45%     2 - 2 -26.8 -18.5 -8.6
  Nov 27, 2022 275   Dartmouth L 77-78 OT 52%     2 - 3 -9.6 -2.7 -6.9
  Nov 28, 2022 344   Incarnate Word W 68-62 73%     3 - 3 -8.6 -3.2 -4.7
  Dec 10, 2022 54   @ New Mexico L 76-94 4%     3 - 4 -5.7 +3.9 -8.6
  Dec 13, 2022 51   @ Utah L 70-91 4%     3 - 5 -8.4 -0.6 -6.0
  Dec 18, 2022 354   Bethune-Cookman W 90-69 79%     4 - 5 +4.2 +7.6 -3.5
  Dec 22, 2022 80   North Texas L 54-78 13%     4 - 6 0 - 1 -20.1 -9.3 -13.1
  Dec 29, 2022 137   @ Louisiana Tech L 69-91 12%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -17.5 -2.3 -15.1
  Dec 31, 2022 71   @ UAB L 67-90 5%     4 - 8 0 - 3 -12.5 +0.0 -12.9
  Jan 05, 2023 121   Middle Tennessee W 75-72 22%     5 - 8 1 - 3 +2.9 +11.0 -7.7
  Jan 07, 2023 163   Western Kentucky L 64-74 29%     5 - 9 1 - 4 -12.4 -10.2 -2.2
  Jan 11, 2023 175   @ UTEP L 57-69 16%     5 - 10 1 - 5 -9.4 -3.8 -6.7
  Jan 14, 2023 110   @ Charlotte L 54-72 9%     5 - 11 1 - 6 -11.7 -13.7 +1.1
  Jan 16, 2023 170   Rice L 81-88 OT 30%     5 - 12 1 - 7 -9.7 -5.6 -3.2
  Jan 19, 2023 52   Florida Atlantic L 64-83 8%     5 - 13 1 - 8 -11.9 -6.2 -5.6
  Jan 21, 2023 226   Florida International L 72-77 41%     5 - 14 1 - 9 -10.8 -0.2 -10.8
  Jan 26, 2023 80   @ North Texas L 59-63 6%     5 - 15 1 - 10 +5.3 +3.8 +0.9
  Jan 28, 2023 137   Louisiana Tech L 55-66 25%     5 - 16 1 - 11 -12.0 -6.1 -8.3
  Feb 02, 2023 163   @ Western Kentucky L 67-78 14%    
  Feb 04, 2023 121   @ Middle Tennessee L 63-77 10%    
  Feb 11, 2023 175   UTEP L 63-68 32%    
  Feb 16, 2023 170   @ Rice L 71-82 14%    
  Feb 18, 2023 71   UAB L 70-83 11%    
  Feb 23, 2023 52   @ Florida Atlantic L 62-83 2%    
  Feb 25, 2023 226   @ Florida International L 70-78 22%    
  Mar 02, 2023 110   Charlotte L 62-71 21%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 2 - 18




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 26.1 36.9 24.4 8.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 98.0 11th
Total 26.1 36.9 24.5 9.4 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 2.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.6
4-16 9.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.4
3-17 24.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 24.5
2-18 36.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 36.9
1-19 26.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 26.1
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 26.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0