South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#122
Expected Predictive Rating+9.3#63
Pace71.2#122
Improvement+0.4#152

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#149
First Shot+2.0#119
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#250
Layup/Dunks+10.0#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#260
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#320
Freethrows-1.0#240
Improvement+1.4#66

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#108
First Shot+3.7#68
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#276
Layups/Dunks-3.4#286
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#47
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#80
Freethrows+1.7#91
Improvement-1.0#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.3% 23.9% 17.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.9
.500 or above 92.8% 95.5% 84.8%
.500 or above in Conference 87.3% 89.2% 81.6%
Conference Champion 29.7% 32.0% 22.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.6% 1.5%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round22.1% 23.6% 17.6%
Second Round3.2% 3.7% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 74.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 37 - 48 - 8
Quad 412 - 219 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 54   @ Wichita St. L 58-64 21%     0 - 1 +5.5 -3.7 +9.0
  Nov 16, 2021 10   @ Alabama L 68-73 7%     0 - 2 +15.0 -4.8 +20.4
  Nov 25, 2021 178   San Diego W 68-67 63%     1 - 2 +0.5 -2.7 +3.2
  Nov 26, 2021 193   Hawaii W 72-69 66%     2 - 2 +1.8 -1.4 +3.3
  Dec 01, 2021 281   Southern Miss W 85-55 87%     3 - 2 +20.5 +10.3 +10.2
  Dec 04, 2021 164   @ Jacksonville St. W 74-64 49%     4 - 2 +13.3 +4.3 +9.2
  Dec 14, 2021 191   Tarleton St. W 65-58 75%    
  Dec 17, 2021 191   @ Tarleton St. W 62-61 54%    
  Dec 21, 2021 324   SIU Edwardsville W 78-62 93%    
  Dec 30, 2021 234   @ Texas Arlington W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 01, 2022 141   @ Texas St. L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 06, 2022 170   Appalachian St. W 69-63 71%    
  Jan 08, 2022 173   Coastal Carolina W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 13, 2022 145   Georgia St. W 78-74 66%    
  Jan 15, 2022 196   Georgia Southern W 70-63 75%    
  Jan 20, 2022 189   @ Louisiana W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 22, 2022 259   @ Louisiana Monroe W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 27, 2022 262   Troy W 74-63 84%    
  Jan 29, 2022 262   @ Troy W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 03, 2022 196   @ Georgia Southern W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 05, 2022 145   @ Georgia St. L 75-77 45%    
  Feb 10, 2022 288   Arkansas Little Rock W 78-65 88%    
  Feb 12, 2022 228   Arkansas St. W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 17, 2022 173   @ Coastal Carolina W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 19, 2022 170   @ Appalachian St. W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 24, 2022 141   Texas St. W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 26, 2022 234   Texas Arlington W 75-65 80%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.9 7.9 7.5 5.1 2.4 0.5 29.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.4 6.5 3.8 0.9 0.1 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.5 5.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.0 1.6 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.7 0.3 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.5 5.7 8.0 10.2 12.6 14.2 13.7 12.0 8.5 5.2 2.4 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.4    2.3 0.0
16-2 97.9% 5.1    4.8 0.3
15-3 88.9% 7.5    6.0 1.5 0.1
14-4 66.0% 7.9    4.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 35.5% 4.9    1.6 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 9.3% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.7% 29.7 20.1 7.3 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 77.4% 62.8% 14.7% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 39.4%
17-1 2.4% 58.5% 54.2% 4.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 9.5%
16-2 5.2% 45.3% 44.2% 1.1% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.8 2.0%
15-3 8.5% 38.5% 38.3% 0.2% 12.9 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.6 0.0 5.2 0.3%
14-4 12.0% 32.3% 32.2% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 8.1 0.0%
13-5 13.7% 27.3% 27.3% 13.7 0.2 1.3 1.8 0.5 0.0 10.0
12-6 14.2% 21.8% 21.8% 14.1 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.9 0.0 11.1
11-7 12.6% 16.0% 16.0% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 10.6
10-8 10.2% 11.1% 11.1% 14.7 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 9.1
9-9 8.0% 7.5% 7.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 7.4
8-10 5.7% 4.7% 4.7% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.4
7-11 3.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 3.4
6-12 1.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 1.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 22.3% 22.0% 0.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 3.3 7.0 6.7 3.5 0.6 77.7 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 6.7 1.8 9.8 15.2 28.6 18.8 9.8 4.5 5.4 5.4 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 56.5% 9.5 13.0 26.1 13.0 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 53.8% 11.1 3.8 3.8 26.9 19.2