South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.9 188
Expected Predictive Rating +0.9 144
Pace 63.7 314
Improvement +2.4 91

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 205 C- D+ A- C- B-
Defense C 190 C D+ C+ A- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 20 C- 56% 209 +3.7 60
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 142 C 37% 198 -0.4 199
Three Pointers 34% 318 D 30% 312 -5.3 334
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.6 101 D+ -2.6 272
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 241
Second Chance D- 23.3% 344 B+ 1.18 30 D+ 0.27 261
Turnovers A- 13.3% 15
Freethrows C+ 0.31 154 F+ 65% 355 C- 0.21 236
Total Offense C- -1.3 205

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 31% 357 D- 14.4% 339
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 27% 141 C+ 4.6% 150
Three Pointers B 91% 45 D+ 1.4% 299
Total F+ 44% 352 F 8.0% 352

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 22% 364 D- 64% 332 -8.3 5
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% 365 C+ 37% 144 -4.8 1
Three Pointers 70% 1 B- 32% 107 +13.3 365
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 246 C -0.3 174
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 182
Second Chance C- 32.0% 244 D 1.11 299 D+ 0.36 295
Turnovers C+ 17.5% 136
Freethrows A- 0.23 12 D+ 74% 275 A- 0.17 14
Total Defense C -0.6 190

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 65% 364 C 11.4% 155
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 65% 364 C- 3.9% 239
Three Pointers F 93% 363 D+ 0.5% 275
Total F 81% 365 D- 3.1% 346

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 199 18.3 317
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 230 0.16 126
Improvement +2.4 #81 +0.0 #188

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 222 192 163
Conference Record 10 - 8 11 - 7 12 - 6
Conference Finish 6 3 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12% 18% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 24% 47% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round12% 18% 6%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 50.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 37 - 57 - 8
Quad 413 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 169 @Toledo W 76 - 74 34% +9  99% 1 - 0 C+ +4 B +6 B+ B- C+ C- -2 F B- B-
 Thu, Nov 6 349 Alcorn St. W 76 - 70 90% -3  22% 2 - 0 D -10 F+ -10 D+ D+ D- C -1 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 274 Central Michigan W 66 - 64 67% +3  90% 3 - 0 C- -5 D -4 F A- A- C+ +0 A- F+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 364 Coppin St. W 72 - 62 93% +5  81% 4 - 0 D -9 D- -6 F+ F+ B+ C- -2 A- F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 200 @Jacksonville St. W 71 - 65 40% -6  13% 5 - 0 B- +7 C +1 C C- A+ B+ +6 C C+ C+
 Fri, Nov 21 123 @UAB L 72 - 80 23% -5  8% 5 - 1 C- -2 B+ +7 C+ D A+ F -11 F D+ B
 Sun, Nov 30 335 @Texas San Antonio W 82 - 58 73% +14  97% 6 - 1 A- +16 C+ +2 C- C C A+ +13 A C+ D-
 Tue, Dec 2 157 New Mexico St. W 77 - 75 43% -1  35% 7 - 1 C+ +2 B- +4 D C A C- -2 C C- A
 Fri, Dec 5 131 @East Tennessee St. L 65 - 91 26% -5  42% 7 - 2 F -21 D- -6 C+ F B+ F -15 C+ F F+
 Sun, Dec 14 138 North Texas L 57 - 58 49% -4  14% 7 - 3 C- -3 F+ -9 F B+ A+ B+ +7 A+ F+ A-
 Wed, Dec 17 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 92 2OT 81% -7  24% 8 - 3 1 - 0 D+ -7 D -5 D+ C F+ C- -3 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 225 @Texas St. L 65 - 67 45% +6  90% 8 - 4 1 - 1 C- -3 D -5 F+ D+ B- B- +2 A F C-
 Wed, Dec 31 303 @Louisiana W 63 - 58 63% +2  74% 9 - 4 2 - 1 C -0 C+ +3 D B- D+ C -1 C+ F D
 Sat, Jan 3 146 @Troy L 49 - 59 29% -5  16% 9 - 5 2 - 2 D+ -6 F -15 F D+ C A- +7 A- B- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 262 Georgia Southern W 87 - 71 74% +9  95% 10 - 5 3 - 2 B- +7 C+ +3 A+ F C- B +4 B+ C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 140 Arkansas St. W 91 - 87 OT 50% +0  38% 11 - 5 4 - 2 C+ +2 C +1 D+ D A+ C+ +1 C+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 303 Louisiana L 56 - 59 81% -1  34% 11 - 6 4 - 3 D- -14 F -11 F B- A- D+ -4 D+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 22 210 @James Madison W 90 - 83 42% +2  49% 12 - 6 5 - 3 B- +7 B +7 D- A+ A+ C -0 F+ D+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 238 Coastal Carolina W 53 - 48 70% +0  50% 13 - 6 6 - 3 C- -2 F -15 F+ F+ A+ A+ +13 A A- B
 Sat, Jan 31 283 Georgia St. W 69 - 67 78% +4  79% 14 - 6 7 - 3 D -8 C+ +2 B D A+ F -10 D- F C
 Wed, Feb 4 174 @Appalachian St. L 57 - 65 35% -3  12% 14 - 7 7 - 4 D+ -6 D -5 C- F A C- -3 B- D F
 Sat, Feb 7 213 Buffalo W 81 - 69 65% +18  96% 15 - 7 B- +6 C +0 B D+ B+ B+ +6 B A- A-
 Thu, Feb 12 245 @Southern Miss W 84 - 78 48% +8  97% 16 - 7 8 - 4 C+ +5 B- +4 A+ F A- C -0 F+ F A+
 Sat, Feb 14 140 @Arkansas St. W 92 - 88 OT 28% -5  21% 17 - 7 9 - 4 B +8 A- +11 D A A+ C- -3 C- D- B+
 Mon, Feb 16 173 @Marshall L 80 - 84 35% -8  3% 17 - 8 9 - 5 C- -2 A- +9 A- B- B- F -12 D F F
 Thu, Feb 19 225 Texas St. L 82 - 90 OT 67% -3  27% 17 - 9 9 - 6 F+ -15 C +1 A F A F -16 F B- F+
 Sat, Feb 21 146 Troy W 71 - 70 51%
 Wed, Feb 25 353 Louisiana Monroe W 82 - 67 93%
 Fri, Feb 27 245 Southern Miss W 73 - 67 70%
Totals 19 - 10 11 - 7 -2 C- -1 C+ D+ B- C -1 D F+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C D D+ 46% 41% 34% B- C- D- B+ D+ A- C+ F+ C- C D- C+ B- C 22% 8% 70% D+ C C- D D+ C+ A- D+ A-
1.07 56% 37% 30% -3 +1 0.98 23% 1.2 .27 13% .31 65% .21 1.09 64% 37% 32% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.1 .36 18% .23 74% .23
Nov
3		 Toledo B B+ A C B 55% 12% 33% B+ B+ C B B- C+ C F F C- F+ A+ F F 24% 14% 61% D+ F A+ F B- B- A+ C- A+
1.18 68% 50% 35% +7 +2 1.22 35% 1.1 .39 17% .24 38% .09 1.15 67% 14% 47% +10 0 1.22 19% 1.3 .26 17% .17 78% .13
Nov
6		 Alcorn St. F+ B- F B- D 59% 17% 24% B- D+ F A+ D+ D- A+ F B C F C+ D F 25% 6% 69% F F B- A+ A+ A+ B- F C
1.06 67% 13% 36% +1 +2 1.09 29% 1.5 .43 21% .47 59% .28 0.97 77% 33% 37% +8 +1 1.20 23% 0.1 .03 25% .20 82% .17
Nov
13		 Central Michigan D F+ D F F 57% 7% 37% A F D+ A+ A- A- A D- B C+ A+ A+ B A 15% 8% 77% D A- F B F+ C A- A A
1.07 50% 33% 18% -14 +3 0.80 32% 1.6 .51 13% .43 65% .28 1.03 43% 25% 30% -8 0 0.85 41% 1.0 .41 18% .20 60% .12
Nov
15		 Coppin St. D- D F C+ F 43% 15% 42% C+ F+ C F F+ B+ F D+ F C- D+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 2% 60% F A- B- F F D- C F D+
1.08 57% 25% 36% -1 +1 1.02 36% 0.8 .28 14% .26 73% .19 0.93 58% 0% 17% -16 +2 0.74 26% 1.9 .49 20% .32 76% .24
Nov
19		 Jacksonville St. C D A+ F C- 57% 19% 23% B C F A+ C- A+ A F C B+ A- B- C- C 33% 5% 62% C C B- C C+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.07 52% 56% 27% -3 +2 1.00 18% 1.5 .27 11% .41 63% .25 0.98 44% 33% 35% -3 +2 0.98 27% 1.0 .27 18% .07 25% .02
Nov
21		 UAB B+ B D- C C+ 42% 21% 38% C+ C+ F+ B D A+ A+ F A+ F F F C+ F 30% 15% 55% C- F F B D+ B F+ A D+
1.13 65% 30% 33% +1 0 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 5% .44 59% .26 1.25 79% 57% 31% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.9 .37 14% .38 62% .24
Nov
30		 Texas San Antonio C+ F A+ B+ C- 43% 23% 34% D+ C- B D- C C B+ A+ A A+ A A+ A A 11% 11% 77% B- A D+ B+ C+ D- A+ F A+
1.16 43% 58% 39% +1 0 1.04 42% 0.9 .39 15% .32 84% .27 0.82 43% 14% 25% -15 -1 0.71 32% 0.8 .25 14% .03 100% .03
Dec
2		 New Mexico St. B- D- F C D- 49% 22% 29% B D F A+ C A A+ A- A+ C- D F A+ C 20% 19% 61% C- C F A+ C- A B D B-
1.16 50% 22% 33% -8 +1 0.88 18% 2.0 .36 11% .66 82% .54 1.13 64% 80% 24% 0 -1 1.00 45% 0.7 .33 20% .24 77% .19
Dec
5		 East Tennessee St. D- F F A+ C 46% 8% 46% B+ C+ F F F B+ D+ F F F C A+ B- B- 36% 7% 57% D- C+ F F F F+ A+ C- A+
0.95 48% 25% 43% +1 +2 1.08 17% 0.5 .08 16% .28 56% .16 1.33 59% 25% 31% -3 +2 1.00 39% 1.7 .66 12% .15 78% .12
Dec
14		 North Texas F+ F+ D+ F F 67% 14% 19% A+ F D+ A+ B+ A+ B D+ B- B+ D+ F A+ A+ 20% 4% 76% C A+ B- F F+ A- B- C+ B-
0.89 46% 33% 0% -18 +3 0.71 29% 1.4 .42 17% .41 68% .28 0.91 60% 50% 19% -16 +1 0.71 31% 1.4 .43 22% .32 69% .22
Dec
17		 Louisiana Monroe D A+ A- F D+ 38% 16% 46% C- D+ F A+ C F+ C+ A+ B C- F A+ F F 12% 15% 73% B F D F F A+ D+ F D-
1.10 78% 50% 25% +3 +1 1.10 20% 2.1 .43 19% .27 79% .21 1.05 71% 22% 40% +5 -1 1.10 28% 1.8 .50 27% .33 81% .27
Dec
20		 Texas St. D D+ A+ F F 56% 13% 31% B+ F+ F A D+ B- A- F B- B- B- D+ A+ A+ 38% 16% 47% F+ A F D F C- F F F
0.99 56% 50% 20% -6 +2 0.94 19% 1.2 .23 17% .40 64% .26 1.02 53% 43% 19% -12 +1 0.80 46% 1.0 .46 18% .41 91% .37
Dec
31		 Louisiana C+ C+ D+ D- D 41% 16% 43% C- D B C- B- D+ B+ A+ A+ C A+ D- C+ C+ 9% 20% 70% D+ C+ F+ F F D A C- A-
1.13 60% 33% 31% -2 +1 1.00 37% 1.0 .37 20% .45 85% .38 1.04 25% 44% 32% -4 -2 0.91 32% 1.1 .35 14% .15 71% .10
Jan
3		 Troy F F F F F 43% 14% 43% B+ F C- D- D+ C A+ D A+ A- A+ B B A- 20% 6% 73% B A- D A B- D+ A+ A+ A+
0.84 44% 33% 17% -18 +1 0.69 31% 0.9 .28 17% .43 67% .29 1.01 40% 33% 31% -8 +1 0.88 37% 0.8 .29 15% .14 57% .08
Jan
10		 Georgia Southern C+ B- A A+ A+ 53% 27% 20% D A+ D- F F C- A- F C B C A+ A A- 24% 2% 75% C- B+ B D C+ D+ C- B C
1.20 63% 50% 60% +14 0 1.29 30% 0.8 .22 19% .43 64% .27 0.98 54% 0% 27% -10 +1 0.85 24% 1.2 .28 14% .35 68% .24
Jan
15		 Arkansas St. C C+ A+ F D- 51% 9% 40% A+ D+ F A+ D A+ A- D+ B C+ D- B- B+ C+ 25% 5% 69% D+ C+ C+ D+ C- B+ A F+ A-
1.11 61% 67% 19% -5 +2 0.97 15% 1.5 .22 6% .39 70% .27 1.06 67% 33% 29% -3 +1 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 23% .24 80% .19
Jan
17		 Louisiana F D F B F 48% 23% 30% D+ F C- A- B- A- F F F D+ C- A+ C C 14% 8% 78% F D+ A+ F C- F A+ A+ A+
0.98 52% 20% 38% -5 0 0.93 31% 1.2 .38 14% .20 30% .06 1.03 57% 25% 33% -2 0 0.98 16% 1.6 .25 12% .08 50% .04
Jan
22		 James Madison B D- D F F 49% 11% 40% A- D- D- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A C C A+ F+ F+ 14% 2% 84% C- F+ A F D+ A F F+ F
1.19 48% 33% 27% -9 +2 0.87 24% 2.1 .51 4% .54 62% .33 1.10 57% 0% 39% +5 +1 1.14 20% 1.7 .34 22% .43 76% .32
Jan
29		 Coastal Carolina F F A+ D- F 40% 26% 34% B F+ F A+ F+ A+ F F F A+ B B A+ A+ 16% 6% 78% F A D+ A+ A- B A+ A+ A+
0.88 30% 54% 29% -9 -1 0.82 12% 1.5 .18 7% .18 60% .11 0.80 50% 33% 25% -12 0 0.78 28% 0.5 .14 18% .14 57% .08
Jan
31		 Georgia St. C+ A A+ F B 51% 19% 30% B- B D+ D D A+ B+ F D+ F D A D+ F+ 10% 17% 73% C- D- F C+ F C C A+ B
1.15 71% 56% 21% +4 +1 1.13 30% 0.9 .27 8% .34 53% .18 1.12 60% 25% 34% -2 -1 0.96 40% 1.0 .40 17% .30 67% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Appalachian St. D C F A- C 33% 29% 38% F+ C- F F F A D+ C- D+ C- D+ F A B 18% 4% 78% C- B- C+ F D F D+ D D
0.98 56% 21% 39% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.5 .08 9% .24 69% .17 1.11 63% 100% 26% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.3 .37 10% .34 67% .23
Feb
7		 Buffalo C F A+ A+ B- 49% 10% 41% B+ B F A+ D+ B+ A+ F A- B+ C- A C- C+ 9% 18% 74% A+ B B- A+ A- A- A+ A A+
1.16 50% 80% 45% +7 +2 1.20 17% 1.6 .28 14% .40 63% .25 0.99 60% 30% 36% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.8 .20 20% .11 67% .07
Feb
12		 Southern Miss B- A+ B B+ A+ 32% 19% 49% D+ A+ F C F A- A+ F A+ C C A+ F D 49% 11% 40% F F+ B F F A+ F D F
1.12 87% 44% 39% +14 0 1.30 13% 1.0 .13 13% .57 57% .32 1.04 59% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 27% 1.8 .47 28% .52 79% .41
Feb
14		 Arkansas St. A- F F A+ D+ 21% 29% 50% F D C+ A+ A A+ B B+ B+ C- A+ B- D D+ 14% 12% 75% A- C- F B- D- B+ F A F
1.21 46% 17% 42% -3 -2 0.92 28% 1.5 .41 7% .36 77% .28 1.15 43% 33% 37% +1 -1 1.02 47% 1.0 .44 24% .51 67% .34
Feb
16		 Marshall A- A+ F C- A 47% 29% 24% C A- B+ C- B- B- F D+ F F F A C- D 14% 12% 74% D+ D B- F F F A+ A- A+
1.24 83% 27% 33% +8 -1 1.18 41% 0.9 .38 15% .24 69% .16 1.30 100% 29% 36% +7 -1 1.14 29% 1.6 .47 11% .16 67% .10
Feb
19		 Texas St. C A- B+ A+ A 48% 13% 39% B- A F F F A D+ D D F F F+ F F 20% 34% 46% A+ F C+ B B- F+ F B F
1.13 69% 43% 43% +11 +2 1.28 7% 0.0 .00 14% .30 68% .21 1.24 70% 47% 43% +12 -3 1.20 31% 0.8 .26 15% .53 73% .39



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 23.6 23.9 1st
2nd 4.9 10.1 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 19.5 19.6 3rd
4th 2.3 22.4 24.8 4th
5th 0.0 8.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.4 7.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.8 0.4 1.2 7th
8th 0.2 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 1.4 17.8 47.2 33.7 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 69.9% 23.6    0.6 4.3 10.3 8.4
11-7 0.7% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.9% 23.9 0.6 4.3 10.3 8.5 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 33.7% 21.5% 21.5% 14.2 0.0 0.9 4.3 2.0 0.0 26.4
11-7 47.2% 9.3% 9.3% 14.6 0.2 1.8 2.2 0.2 42.8
10-8 17.8% 2.5% 2.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 17.3
9-9 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 1.3
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 14.3 87.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.3% 100.0% 14.2 0.1 12.2 59.4 27.9 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 15.9%
Lose Out 0.6%