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American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#127
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#155
Pace71.1#149
Improvement+0.0#185

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#84
First Shot+2.8#89
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#133
Layup/Dunks+0.5#156
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#101
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#213
Freethrows+1.9#84
Improvement-0.2#209

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#207
First Shot-2.9#272
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#110
Layups/Dunks+2.3#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#347
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#269
Freethrows+0.8#138
Improvement+0.2#151
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 7.4% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.5
.500 or above 74.3% 84.4% 63.5%
.500 or above in Conference 68.8% 75.1% 62.2%
Conference Champion 8.8% 11.1% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 2.2% 4.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round5.8% 7.4% 4.2%
Second Round1.0% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Neutral) - 51.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 42 - 5
Quad 35 - 57 - 10
Quad 49 - 217 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 355 Delaware St. W 83-65 94%     1 - 0 +2.7 +9.1 -5.4
  Tue, Nov 11 217 La Salle W 90-63 79%     2 - 0 +20.8 +18.4 +3.8
  Sat, Nov 15 123 Boston College L 71-76 60%     2 - 1 -5.5 +2.4 -8.0
  Wed, Nov 19 152 Hofstra W 81-76 70%     3 - 1 +1.7 +8.2 -6.4
  Mon, Nov 24 129 UC San Diego W 75-74 51%    
  Mon, Dec 1 38 @Villanova L 65-78 11%    
  Sun, Dec 14 361 St. Francis (PA) W 87-69 96%    
  Thu, Dec 18 110 @Davidson L 72-76 34%    
  Mon, Dec 22 213 Princeton W 78-70 77%    
  Wed, Dec 31 174 @Charlotte W 74-73 51%    
  Sat, Jan 3 234 Texas San Antonio W 84-75 79%    
  Wed, Jan 7 248 East Carolina W 82-72 81%    
  Wed, Jan 14 77 @Memphis L 74-83 22%    
  Sun, Jan 18 118 Florida Atlantic W 80-78 58%    
  Wed, Jan 21 221 @Rice W 77-74 59%    
  Sat, Jan 24 234 @Texas San Antonio W 81-78 60%    
  Wed, Jan 28 174 Charlotte W 77-71 71%    
  Sat, Jan 31 75 South Florida L 83-86 40%    
  Sat, Feb 7 248 @East Carolina W 79-75 62%    
  Wed, Feb 11 158 @Tulane L 77-78 50%    
  Sun, Feb 15 116 North Texas W 71-69 57%    
  Wed, Feb 18 109 UAB W 83-81 55%    
  Sat, Feb 21 87 @Wichita St. L 73-80 27%    
  Wed, Feb 25 118 @Florida Atlantic L 77-81 38%    
  Sun, Mar 1 221 Rice W 80-71 77%    
  Thu, Mar 5 158 Tulane W 81-75 70%    
  Sun, Mar 8 112 @Tulsa L 75-79 36%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.6 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 8.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.1 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.1 2.6 0.6 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.3 3.2 0.5 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.5 3.8 0.6 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.2 1.0 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.1 1.4 0.1 7.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.3 1.8 0.1 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.0 0.3 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.8 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.7 5.8 8.0 10.2 12.1 13.1 12.7 11.0 8.6 5.8 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.8% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 90.8% 1.4    1.2 0.2 0.0
15-3 74.6% 2.4    1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 44.1% 2.6    1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 16.9% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2
12-6 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 4.7 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 56.0% 36.0% 20.0% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.3%
17-1 0.6% 36.1% 33.7% 2.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 3.6%
16-2 1.6% 26.7% 25.8% 0.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2 1.1%
15-3 3.3% 19.2% 18.8% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.5%
14-4 5.8% 16.2% 16.2% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.9
13-5 8.6% 13.3% 13.3% 12.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.5
12-6 11.0% 8.1% 8.1% 12.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 10.1
11-7 12.7% 6.1% 6.1% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.9
10-8 13.1% 3.1% 3.1% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.7
9-9 12.1% 1.6% 1.6% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.9
8-10 10.2% 1.1% 1.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.1
7-11 8.0% 0.8% 0.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0
6-12 5.8% 0.3% 0.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 5.8
5-13 3.7% 3.7
4-14 2.1% 2.1
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.9% 5.8% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 94.1 0.1%