UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#103
Expected Predictive Rating-14.1#351
Pace72.2#79
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#87
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#135
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 17.7% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 2.8% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.3 10.5 11.5
.500 or above 72.2% 90.3% 70.3%
.500 or above in Conference 64.3% 80.8% 62.6%
Conference Champion 9.2% 17.3% 8.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 1.0% 4.6%
First Four0.4% 1.0% 0.3%
First Round9.1% 17.3% 8.2%
Second Round2.3% 5.5% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Away) - 9.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 43 - 7
Quad 38 - 511 - 12
Quad 48 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 365   Mississippi Valley W 106-55 99%     1 - 0 +24.0 +3.7 +11.4
  Nov 07, 2025 22   @ North Carolina St. L 66-80 10%    
  Nov 11, 2025 290   Alabama St. W 81-67 90%    
  Nov 14, 2025 88   High Point W 76-75 54%    
  Nov 21, 2025 155   South Alabama W 73-66 75%    
  Nov 24, 2025 166   UTEP W 77-72 67%    
  Nov 24, 2025 139   Southern Illinois W 76-73 61%    
  Dec 01, 2025 151   @ Middle Tennessee W 75-74 54%    
  Dec 05, 2025 131   @ Drake L 67-68 48%    
  Dec 14, 2025 117   Troy W 76-72 65%    
  Dec 17, 2025 222   Cleveland St. W 79-68 82%    
  Dec 21, 2025 179   UNC Asheville W 81-72 77%    
  Dec 31, 2025 124   Wichita St. W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 06, 2026 81   @ South Florida L 74-79 32%    
  Jan 07, 2026 130   Florida Atlantic W 80-74 68%    
  Jan 11, 2026 154   @ East Carolina W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 14, 2026 111   @ Tulane L 74-76 41%    
  Jan 18, 2026 144   Tulsa W 77-70 72%    
  Jan 22, 2026 81   South Florida W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 28, 2026 172   @ Texas San Antonio W 79-77 57%    
  Jan 31, 2026 98   @ North Texas L 63-67 37%    
  Feb 05, 2026 55   Memphis L 77-79 42%    
  Feb 08, 2026 171   Rice W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 11, 2026 144   @ Tulsa W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 15, 2026 111   Tulane W 77-73 61%    
  Feb 18, 2026 133   @ Temple L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 22, 2026 55   @ Memphis L 74-82 24%    
  Mar 01, 2026 98   North Texas W 66-64 58%    
  Mar 04, 2026 174   @ Charlotte W 74-72 57%    
  Mar 08, 2026 154   East Carolina W 76-69 72%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.1 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.0 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 11.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.6 3.0 0.3 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.9 3.4 0.5 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.6 0.8 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.2 1.4 0.1 6.5 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 2.6 1.5 0.1 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.5 0.3 4.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.1 4.6 6.4 8.5 10.7 11.5 12.0 11.2 9.6 7.9 5.6 3.7 1.9 0.9 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.3% 0.9    0.8 0.1
16-2 90.8% 1.7    1.4 0.3 0.0
15-3 69.9% 2.6    1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 40.6% 2.3    1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 16.6% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 5.3 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 76.0% 48.0% 28.0% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.8%
17-1 0.9% 69.5% 45.2% 24.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 44.3%
16-2 1.9% 48.3% 40.9% 7.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.0 12.5%
15-3 3.7% 34.8% 31.4% 3.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.4 4.9%
14-4 5.6% 24.5% 23.7% 0.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.2 1.1%
13-5 7.9% 19.1% 18.9% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.1 6.4 0.2%
12-6 9.6% 15.1% 15.1% 11.8 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.1
11-7 11.2% 8.4% 8.4% 12.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.3
10-8 12.0% 4.5% 4.5% 12.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.4
9-9 11.5% 2.2% 2.2% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.3
8-10 10.7% 1.3% 1.3% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6
7-11 8.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4
6-12 6.4% 0.4% 0.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4
5-13 4.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.6
4-14 3.1% 3.1
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.2% 8.7% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 3.7 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 90.8 0.6%