UAB
Conference USA
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#46
Expected Predictive Rating+8.6#73
Pace68.5#197
Improvement-0.1#192

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#55
First Shot+2.3#109
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#53
Layup/Dunks+0.4#156
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#197
Freethrows-0.6#219
Improvement-2.4#330

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#54
First Shot+6.1#31
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#257
Layups/Dunks+2.8#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#35
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#141
Freethrows-0.7#229
Improvement+2.3#31
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.0% 2.1% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 4.6% 4.7% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.2% 48.5% 34.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14.1% 14.3% 4.8%
Average Seed 10.5 10.4 11.8
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.1% 98.0%
Conference Champion 55.7% 56.0% 42.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.9% 3.9% 2.2%
First Round46.5% 46.7% 32.9%
Second Round19.0% 19.2% 9.8%
Sweet Sixteen6.8% 6.9% 3.3%
Elite Eight2.2% 2.2% 1.3%
Final Four0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 34 - 4
Quad 39 - 212 - 6
Quad 412 - 125 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 255   UNC Asheville W 102-77 94%     1 - 0 +17.2 +23.4 -7.0
  Nov 12, 2021 143   Morehead St. W 85-71 85%     2 - 0 +12.8 +10.9 +1.8
  Nov 18, 2021 118   @ South Carolina L 63-66 62%     2 - 1 +3.5 -6.8 +10.4
  Nov 21, 2021 341   Alabama A&M W 86-41 98%     3 - 1 +28.8 +2.7 +23.5
  Nov 25, 2021 200   New Mexico W 86-73 85%     4 - 1 +11.6 +4.9 +5.8
  Nov 26, 2021 42   San Francisco L 61-63 49%     4 - 2 +7.9 -4.8 +12.7
  Dec 01, 2021 131   East Tennessee St. W 70-56 83%     5 - 2 +13.3 +1.1 +13.0
  Dec 04, 2021 65   @ Saint Louis W 77-72 47%     6 - 2 +15.5 +11.9 +3.9
  Dec 14, 2021 320   Grambling St. W 80-58 98%    
  Dec 18, 2021 43   West Virginia L 69-70 50%    
  Dec 22, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 93-55 100.0%   
  Dec 30, 2021 169   UTEP W 74-61 88%    
  Jan 01, 2022 278   Texas San Antonio W 83-64 96%    
  Jan 06, 2022 106   @ North Texas W 63-61 59%    
  Jan 08, 2022 186   @ Rice W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 13, 2022 215   Florida International W 75-60 91%    
  Jan 15, 2022 183   Florida Atlantic W 78-65 89%    
  Jan 22, 2022 85   @ Louisiana Tech W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 27, 2022 130   @ Western Kentucky W 74-70 65%    
  Jan 29, 2022 126   @ Marshall W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 05, 2022 190   Middle Tennessee W 77-63 89%    
  Feb 10, 2022 281   Southern Miss W 76-57 96%    
  Feb 13, 2022 203   @ Old Dominion W 67-59 78%    
  Feb 17, 2022 186   Rice W 82-68 89%    
  Feb 19, 2022 106   North Texas W 66-58 77%    
  Feb 24, 2022 278   @ Texas San Antonio W 80-67 87%    
  Feb 26, 2022 169   @ UTEP W 71-64 72%    
  Mar 02, 2022 281   @ Southern Miss W 73-60 87%    
  Mar 05, 2022 85   Louisiana Tech W 77-70 72%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.3 8.1 14.7 15.8 10.7 3.9 55.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 6.4 7.6 3.8 0.7 0.0 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.9 4.1 1.3 0.1 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.5 0.6 0.1 5.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.4 9.1 13.4 17.1 18.6 16.5 10.7 3.9 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.9    3.9
17-1 99.9% 10.7    10.4 0.3
16-2 95.5% 15.8    13.8 2.0 0.0
15-3 79.1% 14.7    9.9 4.3 0.4 0.0
14-4 47.5% 8.1    3.5 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.9% 2.3    0.4 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 55.7% 55.7 42.0 11.0 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.9% 93.5% 63.3% 30.2% 5.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 82.2%
17-1 10.7% 81.8% 56.9% 24.9% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 1.9 57.9%
16-2 16.5% 67.1% 50.5% 16.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 5.5 33.5%
15-3 18.6% 51.5% 43.9% 7.6% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.3 4.1 0.6 0.0 9.0 13.6%
14-4 17.1% 40.4% 37.9% 2.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 1.1 0.1 10.2 4.0%
13-5 13.4% 31.6% 31.1% 0.5% 12.3 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.2 0.7%
12-6 9.1% 27.1% 26.9% 0.2% 12.6 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 6.7 0.2%
11-7 5.4% 18.8% 18.7% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.3 0.1%
10-8 2.9% 12.2% 12.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5
9-9 1.5% 8.7% 8.7% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3
8-10 0.6% 6.6% 6.6% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.2% 3.0% 3.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.1% 7.5% 7.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 48.2% 39.7% 8.5% 10.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.0 3.3 5.1 10.7 14.7 5.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 51.8 14.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 3.7 5.1 13.1 23.0 33.4 18.3 6.0 1.0 0.1 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 92.0% 6.5 2.1 1.6 11.8 12.8 16.6 19.8 15.5 7.5 1.6 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 91.7% 6.9 0.7 9.0 14.6 18.8 15.3 14.6 6.9 6.9 4.9