UAB
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#124
Expected Predictive Rating-5.7#261
Pace71.7#102
Improvement+0.5#153

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#72
First Shot+1.7#131
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#58
Layup/Dunks+5.8#28
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#64
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#333
Freethrows-0.8#232
Improvement-0.2#203

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#240
First Shot-2.9#272
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#123
Layups/Dunks-1.8#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#230
Freethrows-0.3#213
Improvement+0.7#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 4.1% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.2
.500 or above 60.0% 69.1% 44.2%
.500 or above in Conference 58.1% 62.5% 50.4%
Conference Champion 2.4% 2.8% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 2.9% 4.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round3.5% 4.1% 2.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 63.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 6
Quad 34 - 76 - 12
Quad 411 - 316 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 183   Vermont L 62-67 73%     0 - 1 -9.1 -3.8 -5.9
  Nov 07, 2024 250   Southern Miss W 98-84 83%     1 - 1 +6.3 +10.4 -5.8
  Nov 10, 2024 227   SE Louisiana W 82-72 80%     2 - 1 +3.4 +7.5 -4.2
  Nov 15, 2024 141   @ High Point L 65-68 43%     2 - 2 +1.1 -8.3 +9.3
  Nov 22, 2024 202   Longwood L 81-89 66%     2 - 3 -9.9 +5.4 -15.0
  Nov 23, 2024 170   Illinois St. L 83-84 61%     2 - 4 -1.7 +4.2 -5.8
  Nov 25, 2024 262   Louisiana W 98-86 78%     3 - 4 +6.2 +18.3 -12.2
  Dec 01, 2024 128   Middle Tennessee L 69-76 64%     3 - 5 -8.3 -3.3 -5.1
  Dec 06, 2024 357   Prairie View W 95-66 95%     4 - 5 +11.8 +8.5 +2.3
  Dec 15, 2024 130   Arkansas St. W 79-75 63%    
  Dec 18, 2024 360   Alabama A&M W 89-69 97%    
  Dec 22, 2024 352   Alcorn St. W 83-65 95%    
  Dec 31, 2024 77   @ North Texas L 63-71 22%    
  Jan 04, 2025 225   Tulsa W 82-73 79%    
  Jan 07, 2025 220   Tulane W 81-73 78%    
  Jan 12, 2025 92   @ Florida Atlantic L 80-87 27%    
  Jan 15, 2025 148   @ South Florida L 77-78 45%    
  Jan 21, 2025 249   Texas San Antonio W 87-77 81%    
  Jan 26, 2025 32   @ Memphis L 75-89 11%    
  Jan 29, 2025 225   @ Tulsa W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 01, 2025 205   Charlotte W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 03, 2025 77   North Texas L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 11, 2025 159   @ East Carolina L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 16, 2025 148   South Florida W 80-75 66%    
  Feb 19, 2025 168   @ Rice L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 23, 2025 118   Temple W 80-78 59%    
  Feb 27, 2025 94   @ Wichita St. L 74-80 28%    
  Mar 02, 2025 32   Memphis L 78-86 25%    
  Mar 06, 2025 92   Florida Atlantic L 83-84 48%    
  Mar 09, 2025 220   @ Tulane W 78-76 59%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 5.9 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 6.2 3.9 0.4 0.0 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.1 4.3 0.6 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.6 4.8 1.1 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 4.4 1.7 0.1 8.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 3.5 1.9 0.1 6.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 2.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 4.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.8 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.9 8.1 11.3 13.6 14.9 14.0 11.4 8.6 5.2 2.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 87.2% 0.3    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 63.0% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 30.8% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.4% 29.9% 29.9% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.0% 15.1% 15.1% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-4 2.6% 13.0% 13.0% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3
13-5 5.2% 10.8% 10.8% 12.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.6
12-6 8.6% 8.5% 8.5% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 7.8
11-7 11.4% 5.3% 5.3% 12.9 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.8
10-8 14.0% 3.0% 3.0% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.5
9-9 14.9% 1.7% 1.7% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.6
8-10 13.6% 0.9% 0.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5
7-11 11.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.2
6-12 8.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 8.0
5-13 4.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.9
4-14 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 96.5 0.0%