UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#107
Expected Predictive Rating+2.7#133
Pace71.9#111
Improvement+0.9#122

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#107
First Shot+0.7#156
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#56
Layup/Dunks+6.9#13
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#71
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.5#357
Freethrows+0.3#157
Improvement+1.8#63

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#122
First Shot-2.4#254
After Offensive Rebounds+3.9#5
Layups/Dunks-1.2#229
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#80
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#284
Freethrows+0.2#167
Improvement-0.9#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 11.3% 7.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 12.5
.500 or above 92.1% 96.1% 86.9%
.500 or above in Conference 80.0% 87.6% 70.0%
Conference Champion 11.9% 17.1% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.3% 1.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round9.6% 11.2% 7.5%
Second Round1.4% 1.8% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Home) - 56.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 39 - 511 - 10
Quad 49 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 106-55 99%     1 - 0 +24.9 +4.2 +11.8
  Fri, Nov 7 28 @North Carolina St. L 70-94 11%     1 - 1 -6.2 +0.1 -4.9
  Tue, Nov 11 281 Alabama St. L 74-77 89%     1 - 2 -12.5 -9.7 -2.6
  Fri, Nov 14 101 High Point W 91-74 58%     2 - 2 +19.3 +6.2 +11.3
  Fri, Nov 21 190 South Alabama W 80-72 81%     3 - 2 +3.1 +13.2 -9.4
  Mon, Nov 24 130 Southern Illinois W 81-73 59%     4 - 2 +10.0 +9.8 +0.2
  Tue, Nov 25 202 UTEP W 75-59 75%     5 - 2 +13.3 +11.0 +4.0
  Mon, Dec 1 158 @Middle Tennessee L 61-76 54%     5 - 3 -11.8 -6.0 -6.7
  Fri, Dec 5 143 @Drake W 74-69 50%     6 - 3 +9.2 +4.1 +5.1
  Sun, Dec 14 139 Troy L 85-86 71%     6 - 4 -2.5 +14.6 -17.1
  Wed, Dec 17 334 Cleveland St. W 101-77 94%     7 - 4 +10.5 +13.4 -4.2
  Sun, Dec 21 232 UNC Asheville W 72-47 86%     8 - 4 +17.6 +1.7 +18.1
  Wed, Dec 31 98 Wichita St. W 74-72 57%    
  Tue, Jan 6 79 @South Florida L 78-84 30%    
  Wed, Jan 7 114 Florida Atlantic W 81-77 64%    
  Sun, Jan 11 271 @East Carolina W 78-71 75%    
  Wed, Jan 14 194 @Tulane W 77-74 62%    
  Sun, Jan 18 92 Tulsa W 80-79 54%    
  Thu, Jan 22 79 South Florida W 82-81 51%    
  Wed, Jan 28 287 @Texas San Antonio W 79-71 77%    
  Sat, Jan 31 146 @North Texas W 68-67 51%    
  Thu, Feb 5 72 Memphis L 75-76 48%    
  Sun, Feb 8 231 Rice W 80-68 85%    
  Wed, Feb 11 92 @Tulsa L 77-82 33%    
  Sun, Feb 15 194 Tulane W 80-71 81%    
  Wed, Feb 18 151 @Temple W 78-77 52%    
  Sun, Feb 22 72 @Memphis L 72-79 28%    
  Sun, Mar 1 146 North Texas W 71-65 71%    
  Wed, Mar 4 183 @Charlotte W 74-71 60%    
  Sun, Mar 8 271 East Carolina W 81-68 88%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.0 3.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 11.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.4 5.8 2.8 0.5 0.0 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.4 6.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 6.9 3.2 0.3 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 5.6 3.9 0.6 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.2 4.7 0.8 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.4 1.3 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 3.5 1.6 0.1 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.3 1.6 0.1 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 3.3 5.6 8.8 12.1 14.2 15.5 14.1 11.1 7.1 3.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
16-2 98.4% 1.6    1.4 0.2
15-3 85.0% 3.1    2.3 0.8 0.0
14-4 56.2% 4.0    1.7 1.9 0.5 0.0
13-5 19.3% 2.2    0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.9% 11.9 6.3 3.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 34.7% 32.0% 2.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 4.0%
16-2 1.6% 26.4% 26.2% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2 0.3%
15-3 3.7% 23.9% 23.9% 11.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 2.8
14-4 7.1% 20.3% 20.3% 11.9 0.3 1.1 0.1 5.7
13-5 11.1% 16.2% 16.2% 12.2 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 9.3
12-6 14.1% 13.1% 13.1% 12.3 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.0 12.3
11-7 15.5% 9.0% 9.0% 12.6 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 14.1
10-8 14.2% 6.0% 6.0% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 13.4
9-9 12.1% 3.5% 3.5% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 11.6
8-10 8.8% 2.3% 2.3% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.6
7-11 5.6% 2.2% 2.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.5
6-12 3.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
5-13 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 5.1 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 90.4 0.0%