East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#286
Expected Predictive Rating-12.2#326
Pace71.6#133
Improvement-1.8#307

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#309
First Shot-4.8#306
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#199
Layup/Dunks+1.6#118
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#136
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.8#354
Freethrows+0.8#129
Improvement-2.2#338

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#225
First Shot-3.3#285
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#78
Layups/Dunks-1.6#237
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#242
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#236
Freethrows+0.1#171
Improvement+0.4#150
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.6
.500 or above 0.6% 1.1% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 6.3% 8.3% 4.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 41.1% 36.5% 45.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Home) - 48.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 60 - 9
Quad 32 - 72 - 16
Quad 46 - 78 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 234 Georgia Southern W 92-89 51%     1 - 0 -4.2 +3.0 -7.6
  Sat, Nov 8 103 @Richmond L 72-87 10%     1 - 1 -7.6 -1.4 -5.4
  Tue, Nov 18 107 @UNC Wilmington L 60-85 10%     1 - 2 -18.1 -8.1 -11.2
  Fri, Nov 21 265 Charleston Southern L 65-77 57%     1 - 3 -20.6 -11.1 -9.5
  Tue, Nov 25 13 Michigan St. L 56-89 2%     1 - 4 -14.4 -7.3 -6.3
  Thu, Nov 27 105 St. Bonaventure L 58-67 16%     1 - 5 -5.0 -13.2 +8.3
  Tue, Dec 2 342 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68-56 77%     2 - 5 -2.6 +2.1 -2.4
  Sat, Dec 6 276 UNC Greensboro L 78-82 59%     2 - 6 -13.3 -0.1 -13.2
  Thu, Dec 11 256 Appalachian St. L 54-67 56%     2 - 7 -21.3 -17.6 -4.7
  Sun, Dec 14 211 Buffalo L 74-75 48%    
  Wed, Dec 17 261 Presbyterian W 67-65 56%    
  Mon, Dec 22 21 @North Carolina L 63-88 1%    
  Wed, Dec 31 184 Tulane L 73-75 42%    
  Wed, Jan 7 164 @Temple L 71-80 19%    
  Sun, Jan 11 109 UAB L 71-79 24%    
  Wed, Jan 14 84 @South Florida L 70-86 6%    
  Sun, Jan 18 197 Charlotte L 69-70 45%    
  Wed, Jan 21 89 @Wichita St. L 63-79 8%    
  Sat, Jan 24 146 @North Texas L 61-72 17%    
  Wed, Jan 28 215 Rice L 70-71 48%    
  Sun, Feb 1 120 @Florida Atlantic L 68-81 13%    
  Sat, Feb 7 164 Temple L 74-77 37%    
  Wed, Feb 11 281 Texas San Antonio W 74-71 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 215 @Rice L 67-73 28%    
  Wed, Feb 18 89 Wichita St. L 66-76 19%    
  Sat, Feb 21 197 @Charlotte L 66-73 26%    
  Wed, Feb 25 281 @Texas San Antonio L 71-74 38%    
  Sun, Mar 1 66 Memphis L 68-80 14%    
  Thu, Mar 5 85 Tulsa L 70-80 19%    
  Sun, Mar 8 109 @UAB L 68-82 11%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.2 0.1 3.8 7th
8th 0.3 2.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.9 1.1 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.2 2.9 5.5 2.2 0.2 11.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 4.0 7.2 4.0 0.4 16.1 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 6.1 9.1 4.7 0.7 0.0 22.2 12th
13th 1.3 4.9 8.8 8.7 4.0 0.7 0.0 28.5 13th
Total 1.3 5.0 10.3 15.4 17.3 15.8 13.1 9.3 6.0 3.5 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 62.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 18.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.3% 0.3
11-7 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
9-9 3.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.4
8-10 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.0
7-11 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.3
6-12 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.1
5-13 15.8% 15.8
4-14 17.3% 17.3
3-15 15.4% 15.4
2-16 10.3% 10.3
1-17 5.0% 5.0
0-18 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%