East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#172
Expected Predictive Rating+5.1#108
Pace68.8#193
Improvement+0.2#168

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#189
First Shot+0.3#177
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#205
Layup/Dunks-0.6#196
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#121
Freethrows+1.0#117
Improvement-0.6#237

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#177
First Shot+0.9#145
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#246
Layups/Dunks-0.3#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#9
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#234
Freethrows-0.9#248
Improvement+0.8#107
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 13.3
.500 or above 48.7% 53.4% 28.8%
.500 or above in Conference 16.0% 17.3% 10.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.5% 18.0% 26.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 81.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 52 - 10
Quad 34 - 45 - 15
Quad 410 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 352   South Carolina St. W 70-62 95%     1 - 0 -11.1 -19.8 +7.8
  Nov 12, 2021 290   Canisius W 83-71 82%     2 - 0 +1.9 -3.2 +4.0
  Nov 14, 2021 296   Western Carolina W 95-79 83%     3 - 0 +5.4 +8.6 -4.2
  Nov 18, 2021 29   Oklahoma L 74-79 13%     3 - 1 +7.2 +10.3 -3.3
  Nov 19, 2021 203   Old Dominion W 73-60 56%     4 - 1 +11.3 +12.2 +1.1
  Nov 21, 2021 70   Davidson L 67-76 24%     4 - 2 -1.9 -0.1 -2.3
  Nov 27, 2021 306   Coppin St. W 70-68 85%     5 - 2 -9.2 -3.0 -6.1
  Nov 30, 2021 203   Old Dominion W 63-62 67%     6 - 2 -3.7 -4.1 +0.5
  Dec 04, 2021 216   Gardner-Webb W 62-52 68%     7 - 2 +5.0 -11.7 +16.7
  Dec 07, 2021 284   N.C. A&T W 75-66 81%    
  Dec 17, 2021 134   Liberty L 63-65 41%    
  Dec 21, 2021 281   Southern Miss W 71-62 81%    
  Dec 29, 2021 54   Wichita St. L 63-69 30%    
  Jan 01, 2022 247   @ South Florida W 61-60 54%    
  Jan 05, 2022 160   Tulane W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 08, 2022 140   @ Temple L 68-73 32%    
  Jan 12, 2022 55   @ Cincinnati L 61-73 14%    
  Jan 15, 2022 34   Memphis L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 18, 2022 63   Central Florida L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 22, 2022 4   @ Houston L 56-78 2%    
  Jan 27, 2022 34   @ Memphis L 65-80 9%    
  Jan 30, 2022 55   Cincinnati L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 02, 2022 140   Temple W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 05, 2022 160   @ Tulane L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 08, 2022 138   @ Tulsa L 66-71 32%    
  Feb 12, 2022 87   SMU L 72-75 38%    
  Feb 20, 2022 63   @ Central Florida L 64-75 17%    
  Feb 23, 2022 247   South Florida W 64-57 74%    
  Feb 26, 2022 138   Tulsa W 69-68 53%    
  Mar 05, 2022 54   @ Wichita St. L 60-72 15%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.4 2.9 0.5 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 5.7 4.3 0.7 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.2 2.5 7.1 5.3 1.0 0.0 16.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.2 7.8 5.6 1.1 0.0 18.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 4.3 7.6 4.6 1.0 0.0 18.5 10th
11th 0.4 1.6 3.8 3.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 11.9 11th
Total 0.4 1.7 4.7 8.6 12.9 15.3 15.8 13.8 10.9 7.5 4.4 2.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 47.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 14.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 4.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 28.6% 4.8% 23.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0%
14-4 0.2% 15.8% 5.3% 10.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.1%
13-5 0.5% 4.7% 1.9% 2.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.8%
12-6 1.0% 3.0% 2.6% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.4%
11-7 2.4% 1.6% 1.3% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.2%
10-8 4.4% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.0%
9-9 7.5% 0.5% 0.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4
8-10 10.9% 0.3% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9
7-11 13.8% 0.1% 0.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 13.8
6-12 15.8% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.8
5-13 15.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 15.3
4-14 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.8
3-15 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.5
2-16 4.7% 4.7
1-17 1.7% 1.7
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.1%